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Arctic rivers face big changes with warming climate, permafrost thaw and accelerating water cycle • Alaska Beacon

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Arctic rivers face big changes with warming climate, permafrost thaw and accelerating water cycle • Alaska Beacon


As the Arctic warms, its mighty rivers are changing in ways that could have vast consequences – not only for the Arctic region but for the world.

Rivers represent the land branch of the earth’s hydrological cycle. As rain and snow fall, rivers transport freshwater runoff along with dissolved organic and particulate materials, including carbon, to coastal areas. With the Arctic now warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the world, the region is seeing more precipitation and the permafrost is thawing, leading to stronger river flows.

Major river basins of the Arctic region are mapped.
(NOAA Arctic Report Card image)

We’re climate scientists who study how warming is influencing the water cycle and ecosystems. In a new study using historical data and sophisticated computer models of Earth’s climate and hydrology, we explored how climate change is altering Arctic rivers.

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We found that thawing permafrost and intensifying storms will change how water moves into and through Arctic rivers. These changes will affect coastal regions, the Arctic Ocean and, potentially, the North Atlantic, as well as the climate.

Thawing permafrost: Big changes in Arctic soils

Permafrost thaw is one of the most consequential changes that the Arctic is experiencing as temperatures rise.

Permafrost is soil that has been frozen for at least two years and often for millennia. It covers approximately 8.8 million square miles (about 22.8 million square kilometers) in Earth’s Northern Hemisphere, but that area is shrinking as the permafrost thaws.

Erosion reveals ice-rich permafrost near Teshekpuk Lake, Alaska.(Photo by Brandt Meixell/USGS)
Erosion reveals ice-rich permafrost near Teshekpuk Lake, Alaska.
(Photo by Brandt Meixell/USGS)

Historically, most water going into Arctic rivers flows atop frozen permafrost soils in spring. Scientists call this “overland runoff.”

However, our results suggest that as warming continues, an increasing fraction of annual river flow will come from under the surface, through thawed soils in the degrading permafrost. As the overall flow increases with more precipitation, as much as 30% more of it could be moving underground by the end of this century as subsurface pathways expand.

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When water flows through soil, it picks up different chemicals and metals. As a result, water coming into rivers will likely have a different chemical character. For example, it may carry more nutrients and dissolved carbon that can affect coastal zones and the global climate. The fate of that mobilized carbon is an active area of study.

More carbon in river water could end up “outgassed” upon reaching placid coastal waters, increasing the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere, which further drives climate warming. The thaw is also revealing other nasty surprises, such as the emergence of long-frozen viruses.

More rain and snow, more runoff

The Arctic’s water cycle is also ramping up as temperatures rise, meaning more precipitation, evaporation, plant transpiration and river discharge. This is primarily due to a warmer atmosphere’s inherent ability to hold more moisture. It’s the same reason that bigger snowstorms are occurring as the climate warms.

Our study found that the bulk of the additional precipitation will occur across far northern parts of the Arctic basin. As sea ice disappears in a warming climate, computer models agree that a more open Arctic Ocean will feed more water to the atmosphere, where it will be transported to adjacent land areas to fall as precipitation.

Changes projected this century in annual rainfall and snowfall simulated by the computer model used in the study. Red areas represent increases.(Rawlins and Karmalkar, 2024, image)
Changes projected this century in annual rainfall and snowfall simulated by the computer model used in the study. Red areas represent increases.
(Rawlins and Karmalkar, 2024, image)

More snow in northern Alaska, Siberia and Canada will lead to more water flowing in rivers, potentially up to 25% more under a high-warming scenario based on our research. There is more carbon in the soil in northern parts of the Arctic compared with the south. With permafrost thaw, those regions will also see more water coming into rivers from below the surface, where additional soil carbon can leach into the water and become dissolved organic carbon.

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More old carbon is already showing up in samples gathered from Arctic rivers, attributed to permafrost thaw. Carbon dating shows that some of this carbon has been frozen for thousands of years.

Impacts will cascade through Arctic ecosystems

So, what does the future hold?

One of the most notable changes expected involves the transport of fresh water and associated materials, such as dissolved organic carbon and heat energy, to Arctic coastal zones.

James McClelland of the Beaufort Lagoon Ecosystems Long Term Ecological Research program examines a water sample from a stream near Utqiagvik on Alaska’s North Slope. The brown tint is dissolved organic matter. (Photo by Michael A. Rawlins)
James McClelland of the Beaufort Lagoon Ecosystems Long Term Ecological Research program examines a water sample from a stream near Utqiagvik on Alaska’s North Slope. The brown tint is dissolved organic matter. (Photo by Michael A. Rawlins)

Coastal lagoons may become fresher. This change would affect organisms up and down the food chain, though our current understanding of the potential affects of changes in fresh water and dissolved organic carbon is still murky.

River water will also be warmer as the climate heats up and has the potential to melt coastal sea ice earlier in the season. Scientists observed this in spring 2023, when unusually warm water in Canada’s Mackenzie River carried heat to the Beaufort Sea, contributing to early coastal sea ice melting.

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Fresh water flowing from rivers such as Canada’s Mackenzie River, at the bottom center of the satellite image, into the Beaufort Sea can break up sea ice early. (NASA Earth Observatory image)
Fresh water flowing from rivers such as Canada’s Mackenzie River, at the bottom center of the satellite image, into the Beaufort Sea can break up sea ice early. (NASA Earth Observatory image)

Finally, more river water reaching the coast has the potential to freshen the Arctic Ocean, particularly along northern Eurasia, where big Russian rivers export massive amounts of fresh water each year.

There are concerns that rising river flows in that region are influencing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the currents that circulate heat from the tropics, up along the U.S. East Coast and toward Europe. Evidence is mounting that these currents have been slowing in recent years as more fresh water enters the North Atlantic. If the circulation shuts down, it would significantly affect temperatures across North America and Europe.

At the coast, changing river flows will also affect the plants, animals and Indigenous populations that call the region home. For them and for the global climate, our study’s findings highlight the need to closely watch how the Arctic is being transformed and take steps to mitigate the effects.The Conversation

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Alaska

Opinion: Alaska needs to curb crypto-kiosk scams

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Opinion: Alaska needs to curb crypto-kiosk scams


Bitcoin tokens. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer, File)

Imagine receiving a call from a law enforcement agency, state or federal court or some other “official” government entity saying you have an outstanding fine, fee or warrant. Pay it immediately or you’re going to jail. The phone number matches that of the identified agency, thanks to AI, and you’re directed to a nearby “Bitcoin ATM” to send cash.

This isn’t hypothetical. This happens to dozens of Alaskans every day. In 2024, Alaskans lost more than $26 million to online fraud, with seniors bearing a third of those losses. These cryptocurrency kiosks have become a preferred tool for criminals because they offer instant, irreversible and often anonymous transactions.

Unlike traditional banks, these kiosks currently operate in a regulatory “black hole.” Scammers exploit this by using high-pressure tactics to force victims into making untraceable transfers. To protect our most vulnerable residents, I introduced Senate Bill 249. This legislation creates a necessary shield for Alaskans by requiring:

• Clear warnings: Operators must post conspicuous notices warning users about common scams.

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• Identity verification: Requiring a government-issued ID creates a vital “speed bump” to break the spell of a high-pressure scam.

• Blocking fraud: Operators must use analytics to block transactions to known illicit or overseas criminal wallets.

• Fee and transaction limits: There are limits on fees for using the machines, but more importantly there are daily and monthly transaction limits to minimize the financial damage from these scams.

Our seniors spent decades building their life savings. They deserve the same financial “guardrails” in the digital age that we expect in every other sector. SB 249 doesn’t ban technology; it simply brings it out of the shadows. It is time to provide our seniors with the protection they’ve earned and stop digital predators from draining Alaskan bank accounts.

Sen. Cathy Tilton represents Senate District M in the Alaska State Senate. Senate District M is composed of House districts 25 and 26 in the Mat-Su. Sen. Tilton is a former speaker of the Alaska House.

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• • •

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VIDEO: World’s first wingsuit skydive through Alaska’s northern lights

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VIDEO: World’s first wingsuit skydive through Alaska’s northern lights


ANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU) – Three men completed a world’s first above Palmer’s night sky, wingsuiting through Alaska’s aurora borealis while catching it all on video.

Jeff Provenzano and Jon Devore jumped together in darkness, along with photographer Mike Brewer.

According to Red Bull, with the help of Red Bull Airforce, a one-shot moment was captured amidst -40°F temperature, pitch-black landscape and a disappearing Northern Lights — all while the photographer was moving as 100MPH.

“It was pretty much the coldest temperature that I ever jumped in,” Provenzano said.

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Alaska skydiver returns to sky after crash

Devore’s first jump was in Juneau as a teenager.

“My very first jump was in Juneau and that’s when the addiction set in and I realized I wanted to do that with my life,” Devore said.

He spent three decades skydiving until 2021, when a crash changed everything.

“I had a really bad crash, completely severed my spine in half, open book pelvic fracture, the list goes on,” Devore said. “Was told I’d never walk again, definitely never skydive again.”

Devore said he chose to prove doctors wrong.

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“It was a better state of mind for me to be in a, I’m going to prove them wrong instead of accept what I’m being told,” he said.

Teammate completes 50-state mission

Provenzano had his own mission: skydive in all 50 states. Alaska was the last one, and he said he wasn’t going without Devore.

“He couldn’t go to Alaska without Alaska John,” Devore said.

Devore said he didn’t know if he would jump or provide ground support.

“Whether I went there as just ground support and encouraged him jumping or if a miracle happened and I was able to jump with him, who knew back then?” Devore said. “But as miracles go, it happened.”

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The two men jumped together above Palmer with photographer Mike Brewer.

“That jump, I actually had a moment where I could truly take a second to look at what was going on and appreciate it,” Provenzano said. “And it was definitely a wow moment.”

For Provenzano, Alaska completed his 50-state goal.

“Alaska was truly the last frontier for me,” Provenzano said. “I just, I was actually really sad. I felt very depressed when I was flying out of there.”

Devore said the experience reinforced the importance of support.

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“Surrounding yourself with the right group of people is very important,” Devore said. “People that believe in you and encouraging you to push through barriers that you’re being told aren’t breakable. Even if you don’t achieve the summit, sometimes just getting halfway to it is more than you’re being told you could do.”

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How selling Alaska in 1867 was a costly mistake for Russia | World News – The Times of India

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How selling Alaska in 1867 was a costly mistake for Russia | World News – The Times of India


In 1867, Russia’s decision to sell Alaska to America turned out to be a historic mistake that was to go unnoticed for years to come. The sum paid by the US was only $7,200,000. Although, in the light of the circumstances at the time, it appeared logical, retrospectively, the act looks extremely shortsighted. Russia found itself economically constrained, geographically far away from the region and fearful of its falling into the hands of the British without any compensation. In reality, however, the region had proved immensely valuable both strategically and naturally.

Why Russia agreed to the Alaska purchase

The choice of selling Alaska was based on economic and political reasons. By the middle of the 19th century, the Russian Empire experienced financial difficulties as a result of the expensive Crimean War. It had become increasingly hard for the country to manage such remote and thinly populated areas as Alaska.According to EBSCO, “the Russian-American Company was in decline, and the colony failed to yield any profit”. In addition to this, the lucrative fur trade had declined, making the territory much less economically valuable for the empire.At the same time, Russia was afraid that Britain might capture Alaska in case another war broke out between the two countries. Selling the colony to the friendly United States appeared as a logical step. As the Office of the Historian states, William H. Seward, U.S. Secretary of State, “it was a chance to expand its influence in North America and hinder further growth of Britain”.For Russia, the transaction was a chance to minimise the losses. However, it greatly undervalued the potential of Alaska.

The hidden wealth Russia gave away

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Another thing that Russia did not expect was the amount of riches that Alaska possessed. Within several decades after the acquisition, the state saw discoveries of enormous deposits of gold, oil, and other minerals.“Alaska has produced more than 40 million ounces of gold,” according to the US Geological Survey. Furthermore, Alaska is home to some of the world’s most significant undeveloped mineral deposits, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). But even more importantly, the state’s oil deposits turned out to be extremely valuable. The Prudhoe Bay oil field was discovered in 1968 and became one of North America’s biggest.In retrospect, the amount paid by the Americans, $7.2 million, or two cents per acre, was rather laughable. According to Howard I. Kushner, the deal “robbed Russia of an enormously rich territory, the true value of which would only be recognised in the twentieth century.”

Strategic and geopolitical consequences

In addition to resources, there is the question of strategy and how important Alaska is to the United States from a strategic standpoint. This is a very good place when it comes to defence strategy. It borders on the Arctic Ocean and also happens to be close to Russia.During the period of the Cold War, the Alaskan region became a frontier area for the United States, becoming home to military facilities and warning systems.According to Col. Michael J. Forsyth, U.S. Army, the closeness of Russia and Alaska, only about ninety kilometres apart across the Bering Strait, meant that this region became highly significant to the United States’ defence plans.From today’s point of view, the strategic location of Alaska makes the state very important to the policies of the U.S. related to the Arctic, energy security, and even environmental policies.Thinking back, what seems clear to us now is that the Russians sold Alaska due to immediate needs rather than future considerations. In order to solve the problem, they lost a valuable resource for Russia.Conclusively, the Alaska Purchase should not have been done as it has had a significant impact that will remain throughout history.



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