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Arctic rivers face big changes with warming climate, permafrost thaw and accelerating water cycle • Alaska Beacon

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Arctic rivers face big changes with warming climate, permafrost thaw and accelerating water cycle • Alaska Beacon


As the Arctic warms, its mighty rivers are changing in ways that could have vast consequences – not only for the Arctic region but for the world.

Rivers represent the land branch of the earth’s hydrological cycle. As rain and snow fall, rivers transport freshwater runoff along with dissolved organic and particulate materials, including carbon, to coastal areas. With the Arctic now warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the world, the region is seeing more precipitation and the permafrost is thawing, leading to stronger river flows.

Major river basins of the Arctic region are mapped.
(NOAA Arctic Report Card image)

We’re climate scientists who study how warming is influencing the water cycle and ecosystems. In a new study using historical data and sophisticated computer models of Earth’s climate and hydrology, we explored how climate change is altering Arctic rivers.

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We found that thawing permafrost and intensifying storms will change how water moves into and through Arctic rivers. These changes will affect coastal regions, the Arctic Ocean and, potentially, the North Atlantic, as well as the climate.

Thawing permafrost: Big changes in Arctic soils

Permafrost thaw is one of the most consequential changes that the Arctic is experiencing as temperatures rise.

Permafrost is soil that has been frozen for at least two years and often for millennia. It covers approximately 8.8 million square miles (about 22.8 million square kilometers) in Earth’s Northern Hemisphere, but that area is shrinking as the permafrost thaws.

Erosion reveals ice-rich permafrost near Teshekpuk Lake, Alaska.(Photo by Brandt Meixell/USGS)
Erosion reveals ice-rich permafrost near Teshekpuk Lake, Alaska.
(Photo by Brandt Meixell/USGS)

Historically, most water going into Arctic rivers flows atop frozen permafrost soils in spring. Scientists call this “overland runoff.”

However, our results suggest that as warming continues, an increasing fraction of annual river flow will come from under the surface, through thawed soils in the degrading permafrost. As the overall flow increases with more precipitation, as much as 30% more of it could be moving underground by the end of this century as subsurface pathways expand.

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When water flows through soil, it picks up different chemicals and metals. As a result, water coming into rivers will likely have a different chemical character. For example, it may carry more nutrients and dissolved carbon that can affect coastal zones and the global climate. The fate of that mobilized carbon is an active area of study.

More carbon in river water could end up “outgassed” upon reaching placid coastal waters, increasing the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere, which further drives climate warming. The thaw is also revealing other nasty surprises, such as the emergence of long-frozen viruses.

More rain and snow, more runoff

The Arctic’s water cycle is also ramping up as temperatures rise, meaning more precipitation, evaporation, plant transpiration and river discharge. This is primarily due to a warmer atmosphere’s inherent ability to hold more moisture. It’s the same reason that bigger snowstorms are occurring as the climate warms.

Our study found that the bulk of the additional precipitation will occur across far northern parts of the Arctic basin. As sea ice disappears in a warming climate, computer models agree that a more open Arctic Ocean will feed more water to the atmosphere, where it will be transported to adjacent land areas to fall as precipitation.

Changes projected this century in annual rainfall and snowfall simulated by the computer model used in the study. Red areas represent increases.(Rawlins and Karmalkar, 2024, image)
Changes projected this century in annual rainfall and snowfall simulated by the computer model used in the study. Red areas represent increases.
(Rawlins and Karmalkar, 2024, image)

More snow in northern Alaska, Siberia and Canada will lead to more water flowing in rivers, potentially up to 25% more under a high-warming scenario based on our research. There is more carbon in the soil in northern parts of the Arctic compared with the south. With permafrost thaw, those regions will also see more water coming into rivers from below the surface, where additional soil carbon can leach into the water and become dissolved organic carbon.

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More old carbon is already showing up in samples gathered from Arctic rivers, attributed to permafrost thaw. Carbon dating shows that some of this carbon has been frozen for thousands of years.

Impacts will cascade through Arctic ecosystems

So, what does the future hold?

One of the most notable changes expected involves the transport of fresh water and associated materials, such as dissolved organic carbon and heat energy, to Arctic coastal zones.

James McClelland of the Beaufort Lagoon Ecosystems Long Term Ecological Research program examines a water sample from a stream near Utqiagvik on Alaska’s North Slope. The brown tint is dissolved organic matter. (Photo by Michael A. Rawlins)
James McClelland of the Beaufort Lagoon Ecosystems Long Term Ecological Research program examines a water sample from a stream near Utqiagvik on Alaska’s North Slope. The brown tint is dissolved organic matter. (Photo by Michael A. Rawlins)

Coastal lagoons may become fresher. This change would affect organisms up and down the food chain, though our current understanding of the potential affects of changes in fresh water and dissolved organic carbon is still murky.

River water will also be warmer as the climate heats up and has the potential to melt coastal sea ice earlier in the season. Scientists observed this in spring 2023, when unusually warm water in Canada’s Mackenzie River carried heat to the Beaufort Sea, contributing to early coastal sea ice melting.

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Fresh water flowing from rivers such as Canada’s Mackenzie River, at the bottom center of the satellite image, into the Beaufort Sea can break up sea ice early. (NASA Earth Observatory image)
Fresh water flowing from rivers such as Canada’s Mackenzie River, at the bottom center of the satellite image, into the Beaufort Sea can break up sea ice early. (NASA Earth Observatory image)

Finally, more river water reaching the coast has the potential to freshen the Arctic Ocean, particularly along northern Eurasia, where big Russian rivers export massive amounts of fresh water each year.

There are concerns that rising river flows in that region are influencing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the currents that circulate heat from the tropics, up along the U.S. East Coast and toward Europe. Evidence is mounting that these currents have been slowing in recent years as more fresh water enters the North Atlantic. If the circulation shuts down, it would significantly affect temperatures across North America and Europe.

At the coast, changing river flows will also affect the plants, animals and Indigenous populations that call the region home. For them and for the global climate, our study’s findings highlight the need to closely watch how the Arctic is being transformed and take steps to mitigate the effects.The Conversation

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Alaska

Avalanche closes Alaska Panhandle highway, the latest debris slide after storms deliver historic rain and snow

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Avalanche closes Alaska Panhandle highway, the latest debris slide after storms deliver historic rain and snow


HAINES, Alaska – An avalanche closed part of a highway in the borough of Haines, a small town about 90 miles north of Juneau in Alaska’s panhandle on Tuesday night — the latest debris slide in the region after days of heavy rain triggered avalanches in Juneau last week.

HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER

Barricades have been placed at Mile 10 of the Haines Highway and crews will begin to assess the damage during the daytime on Wednesday, Alaska Department of Transportation officials said.

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Earlier Tuesday, the department released a few photos of the highway’s condition and issued a travel advisory before the avalanche and reported that rain-on-ice conditions were making road conditions very difficult.

RECORD SNOW BURIES JUNEAU SCHOOL AND PROMPTS FIVE-DAY CLEANUP

Drivers were urged to stay off the road.

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Relentless rain from an atmospheric river has pounded the southeastern part of the state, which has begun to melt a historic amount of snow that fell across the region over the holidays, triggering days of avalanche warnings.

More than 7 feet of snow has fallen across the Alaska panhandle, with the bulk coming after Christmas Eve.

Evacuations were issued in Juneau last week after several large avalanches were reported on the Thane and Mount Juneau avalanche paths Friday. 

Governor Mike Dunleavy issued a disaster declaration on Saturday for both the ongoing storms and the record-shattering snow.

Another day of heavy rain is expected, but the precipitation will finally begin to decrease later Wednesday.

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Check back for more details on this developing story.



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Simple handwashing stations improved health indicators in parts of rural Alaska

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Simple handwashing stations improved health indicators in parts of rural Alaska


A Mini-PASS unit and explanatory posters are displayed on Aug. 10, 2021, at the Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium in Anchorage. ANTHC distributed hundreds of the units during the COVID-19 pandemic to homes in villages that lacked piped water. (Yereth Rosen / Alaska Beacon)

A key step to preventing the spread of diseases like COVID-19 or influenza is simple: washing hands. But lack of piped water in parts of rural Alaska has made that simple practice not so easy to carry out.

Now a technological innovation has boosted rural Alaskans’ ability to do that important disease-fighting task.

The Miniature Portable Alternative Sanitation System, or Mini-PASS, a portable water station that does not require connection to any piped water system, proved effective at helping people wash their hands properly, and there are signs that its use is fending off contagious diseases among children, according to a recently published study.

The Mini-PASS is a stripped-down version of the full Portable Alternative Sanitation System that was also designed by Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium and its partners.

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The full PASS units typically store 50 to 100 gallons of water, and the units include connections to septic tanks, allowing for flush toilets to take the place of “honey buckets,” the plastic-bag-lined buckets commonly used in rural Alaska areas lacking water and sewer systems. The Mini-PASS units lack those septic connections, and they typically allow for storage of 20 gallons of water. Storage tanks are placed above sinks, and used water drains into collection buckets.

The Mini-PASS units are much cheaper than full PASS systems, costing a little over $10,000 for construction and delivery, according to ANTHC. A full PASS system can cost about $50,000 per household, according to ANTHC. That sum is vastly lower than the cost of extending piped water and sanitation service, which can total $400,000 or more per household in parts of rural Alaska.

Simplicity had its virtues during the COVID-19 pandemic. At the time, there was urgency for distributing Mini-PASS units to several rural communities — places where people living in unpiped homes were hauling water, often in difficult circumstances, then using and reusing it in germ-spreading basins.

The consortium, with the help of partners, distributed hundreds of Mini-PASS units to rural households during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. At least 350 units had been distributed as of 2021, and more have gone out since then.

“The idea was people were not going to be reusing the water, that it was free flowing, that you’d wash your hands, and then it would go into the wastewater bucket, the gray water bucket,” said Laura Eichelberger, an ANTHC research consultant and co-author of the study.

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“And because the pandemic was this urgent situation of crisis, they needed to get as many of these units in as they possibly could. And so they took the idea of the PASS and just made it as simple and cheap as possible,” she said.

The recent study used interviews to measure the effectiveness of mini-PASS. In all, there were 163 interviews from 52 households.

Water use is considered an indicator of public health, and the Mini-PASS units led to an increase in water use that expanded over time, the results found. Average water use per person increased by 0.08 gallons per month in households that used the units, meaning that after a year, water use was up by 0.96 gallons a day per person, or 3.6 liters per day, the results found.

Additionally, people with Mini-PASS units reported that children 12 and under had fewer symptoms of contagious diseases.

There was a “statistically significant decrease in the reported symptoms, respiratory in particular, for households who were actively using the Mini-PASS as their primary hand- washing method, compared to those that were still using wash basins,” said Amanda Hansen, the study’s lead author and another ANTHC health researcher.

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Prior to the distribution of Mini-PASS units, water use in unpiped villages in Alaska averaged only 5.7 liters per person per day, according to a 2021 study by researchers at Canada’s McGill University. That was well below the World Health Organization standard of 20 liters per person per day, according to that study.

Parts of rural Alaska continue to face daunting challenges in securing adequate water and sanitation services. According to the Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation, more than 30 communities were considered “unserved” as of 2020. The category applied when less than 55% of homes are served by piped, septic and well or covered haul systems.

Still, there has been significant progress in recent years. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, the number of rural Alaska homes without water, sewer or both has decreased by a notable 70% over the past two decades.

Originally published by the Alaska Beacon, an independent, nonpartisan news organization that covers Alaska state government.





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Mary Peltola may put Alaska’s Senate race in reach for Democrats

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Mary Peltola may put Alaska’s Senate race in reach for Democrats


This story was originally published by The 19th.

This story was originally reported by Grace Panetta of The 19th. Meet Grace and read more of their reporting on gender, politics and policy.

Former Rep. Mary Peltola is challenging GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska, potentially putting a tough race in reach for Democrats.

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Peltola, a Democrat who served one term as Alaska’s at-large U.S. House representative from 2022 to 2025, was widely seen as a prized top recruit for the race and for national Democrats, who have an uphill battle to reclaim control of the U.S. Senate in 2026.

Peltola, the first Alaska Native person elected to Congress, focused on supporting Alaska’s fisheries while in office.

“My agenda for Alaska will always be fish, family and freedom,” Peltola said in her announcement video Monday. “But our future also depends on fixing the rigged system in D.C. that’s shutting down Alaska while politicians feather their own nest.”

“It’s about time Alaskans teach the rest of the country what Alaska first and really, America first, looks like,” she added.

A 2025 survey by progressive pollster Data for Progress, which regularly polls Alaska voters, found that Peltola has the highest approval rating of any elected official in the state. She narrowly lost reelection to Republican Rep. Nick Begich in 2024.

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Elections in Alaska are conducted with top-four nonpartisan primaries and ranked-choice general elections. In the Data for Progress poll, 46 percent of voters said they would rank Sullivan first and 45 percent said they would rank Peltola first in a matchup for U.S. Senate. Sullivan won reelection by a margin of 13 points in 2020.

Republicans control the Senate by a three-seat majority, 53 to 47, and senators serve six-year terms, meaning a third of the Senate is up every election cycle. For Democrats to win back the chamber in 2026, they’d need to hold competitive seats in states like Georgia and Michigan while flipping four GOP-held seats in Maine, North Carolina and even more Republican-leaning states like Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, Nebraska and Texas.

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