Since the New Deal era, the bulk of the functioning US government is the administrative state — think the acronym soup of agencies like the EPA, FCC, FTC, FDA, and so on. Even when Capitol Hill is not mired in deep dysfunction, the speed at which Congress and the courts operate no longer seems suitable for modern life. Both industry and ordinary people look to the administrative state, rather than legislators, for an immediate answer to their problems. And since 1984, the administrative state largely ran on one Supreme Court precedent: Chevron USA, Inc. v. Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC).
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That decision has now been overturned. Admin law is not always interesting, but the simple fact is when it comes to the day-to-day, agencies are the most impactful part of the federal government. No single policy writer at The Verge can fully articulate the impact of Friday’s Supreme Court decision and how profound its effects will be. The administrative state touches everything around us: net neutrality, climate change, clean air and water, and what scant consumer protections we have.
The true scope of this ruling will not be immediately felt, and what replaces Chevron deference is still unclear. The regulatory state has been under steady attack from an increasingly conservative judiciary for a long time. Some of the agencies we follow most closely were kneecapped even before this decision — one expert we talked to said that Chevron had been a “dead letter for quite some time.”
Still, this is a formal turning point. The biggest policy stories at The Verge have centered around federal agencies. And for a long time, the kind of regulation that actually kept up with the pace of technology was mostly coming out of agencies. It is in the years to come that we will wonder, “Why isn’t anyone doing anything?” or “How can a court just unilaterally do that?” about issues that range from trivial to life-threatening.
We’ll look back on this moment as a pivotal part of how we got there.
What is Chevron deference?
It is a longstanding doctrine in which courts defer to federal agencies when there are disputes over how to interpret ambiguous language in legislation passed by Congress. The underlying reasoning is that subject matter experts within the agency are probably able to make more informed decisions than a judge recently assigned to the case. Chevron deference is strong deference — and the low bar for deferring to agencies means that regulations tend not to get tied up in court.
“The key point of Chevron was that laws like these are policy decisions, and those policy decisions should be made by the political branches responsive to the voters, Congress and the president, not by unaccountable judges with no constituents,” David Doniger, an attorney and senior advisor to the NRDC Action Fund, said in a press briefing earlier this month. Doniger happened to litigate and lose the case that gave Chevron deference its name.
While the practice had been in place for decades before, it came to be known as Chevron deference after a 1984 case: Chevron v. NRDC. The Supreme Court ruled in favor of Chevron, allowing the Ronald Reagan administration’s industry-friendly Environmental Protection Agency to stick with a lax interpretation of the Clean Air Act.
Over the years, Chevron deference has enabled federal agencies to tackle all sorts of issues that legislators have yet to cover — from addressing greenhouse gas emissions causing climate change to regulating broadband access. As the conservative legal movement to disempower the administrative state grew, Chevron deference became — in certain circles — shorthand for government overreach.
Before its decision to overturn Chevron, the Supreme Court had already dealt a blow to federal agencies’ regulatory authority by strengthening the “major questions” doctrine in its 2022 decision in West Virginia v. EPA. According to the major questions doctrine, a federal agency shouldn’t have the leeway to craft regulation on an issue of major national significance if Congress hasn’t explicitly allowed it to do so in legislation.
When two cases calling for an end to Chevron deference worked their way up to SCOTUS, the writing was on the wall
The same bloc of six conservative justices that formed the majority in West Virginia v. EPA also overturned the longstanding precedent of Roe v. Wade — an even older case than Chevron — in the same month. When two cases calling for an end to Chevron deference worked their way up to the Supreme Court this year, the writing was on the wall — and once again, those same six justices overturned Chevron.
Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo and Relentless, Inc. v. Department of Commerce were factually about an agency rule on fishing boats, but everyone more or less knew that Chevron was on the line. The cases garnered support from a broad swath of industry interests, including Gun Owners of America and e-cigarette companies.
Legal commentator Matt Ford wrote earlier this year that this interplay between the judiciary and industry was hardly an open secret, quoting Don McGahn — who would eventually become Trump’s White House counsel — at CPAC 2018 saying outright that “the judicial selection and the deregulatory effort are really the flip side of the same coin.”
It’s not yet certain what has replaced Chevron, though some of the wording in the decision suggests we may fall back on a doctrine known as Skidmore deference — a weaker deference, meaning that judges have more power to block agency rules. “The idea that Skidmore is going to be a backup once you get rid of Chevron, that Skidmore means anything other than nothing, Skidmore has always meant nothing,” Justice Elena Kagan said during oral arguments in January.
The new threat to net neutrality
The Federal Communications Commission has famously interpreted Title II of the Communications Act to regulate internet service providers as common carriers in a policy known as net neutrality. Reclassifying ISPs as telecommunications services, rather than information services, would let the FCC impose more regulations on the industry, including mandating that they can’t unfairly block or throttle internet traffic. The idea is to keep ISPs from controlling what information users do or don’t see on the internet. In its latest move to restore the rules, the FCC said reclassifying ISPs as common carriers would also give the agency more oversight over internet outages and help it better secure internet infrastructure.
That interpretation could come under threat, even as the FCC just recently voted to reinstate net neutrality after it was repealed during the Trump administration. “Overruling Chevron has the potential to change the tenor of the impending judicial challenge to the new net neutrality rules dramatically,” University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School professor Christopher Yoo wrote in an article published prior to the Supreme Court ruling. That’s in part because prior judicial review relevant to net neutrality has taken Chevron deference into consideration.
For example, even when the FCC previously chose to classify ISPs in a way that would lead to lighter-touch regulation, the Supreme Court ruled in National Cable & Telecommunications Association v. Brand X Internet Services that Chevron deference should be applied to the FCC’s interpretation of the Communications Act. “Brand X’s conclusion that the statute at issue is ambiguous made it highly likely that reviewing courts applying Chevron would uphold the net neutrality rules under review regardless of whether they were regulatory or deregulatory,” Yoo wrote.
The downfall of Chevron deference could completely change the ways courts review net neutrality, according to Bloomberg Intelligence’s Matt Schettenhelm. “The FCC’s 2024 effort to reinstitute federal broadband regulation is the latest chapter in a long-running regulatory saga, yet we think the demise of deference will change its course in a fundamental way,” he wrote in a recent report. “This time, we don’t expect the FCC to prevail in court as it did in 2016.” Schettenhelm estimated an 80 percent chance of the FCC’s newest net neutrality order being blocked or overturned in the absence of Chevron deference.
There’s still some hope at the appeals level that the FCC could successfully argue that its interpretation of its authority to regulate broadband is the best way to read the law. But Schettenhelm told The Verge it will be a “tough sell” to a conservative and business-friendly Supreme Court, which could make the final call on net neutrality.
After the opinion came out, the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF), a think tank that receives funding from ISPs including AT&T, Comcast, and Verizon, cheered the decision and said it makes it “even less likely that the FCC’s recent regulatory overreaches on Digital Discrimination and Title II for the Internet will survive judicial review.” ITIF said the FCC’s November 2023 digital discrimination order — which allows the agency to fine telecom companies when they fail to provide equal connectivity to different groups without a good reason — could also be in danger. “Now, the Commission will no longer have the refuge of statutory ambiguity to shield this overreach from judicial scrutiny,” ITIF director of broadband and spectrum policy Joe Kane said in a statement.
What will happen to the environment and efforts to fight climate change
“It’s no coincidence that Chevron itself was an environmental case … especially for an agency like the Environmental Protection Agency that makes these highly technical, highly scientifically based decisions under very, very complicated statutes. Chevron was very important,” Lisa Heinzerling, a professor of law at the Georgetown University Law Center, said in a call with The Verge prior to today’s opinion.
Overruling Chevron is essentially a big power grab, experts tell The Verge. It pushes the agency’s technical experts to the side when it comes to crafting environmental protections. In recent years, the conservative-leaning Supreme Court had already whittled down the agency’s regulatory authority — notably, by strengthening the major questions doctrine that Heinzerling describes as “the anti-Chevron.”
As a result, the EPA has already pivoted away from relying on Chevron deference, according to NRDC Action Fund’s Doniger. A rule the EPA finalized in April for cutting greenhouse gas emissions from power plants is a prime example. The Supreme Court decision in West Virginia v. EPA not only strengthened the major questions doctrine, it also said that the EPA’s rules shouldn’t determine whether utilities use fossil fuels or renewable energy. That effectively pushed the EPA to turn to controversial technologies that capture carbon dioxide from power plants in its policy to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
The EPA wrote the rule in a way that anticipated the fall of Chevron so that it can withstand legal challenges, Doniger said in a call with The Verge. But even with the EPA’s preemptively defensive crouch, its power plant rule “is incredibly legally vulnerable” to a rollback of Chevron deference, former Trump administration EPA administrator Andrew Wheeler said in a May episode of the Politico Energy podcast.
“The overall pattern here is clear — it’s not just in this decision — the court majority is on a rampage designed to make it harder for the government to protect us,” Doniger said.
What happens to the push to regulate Big Tech
Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan has made no secret of her ambitions to use the agency’s authority to take bold action to restore competition to digital markets and protect consumers. But with Chevron being overturned amid a broader movement undermining agency authority without clear direction from Congress, Schettenhelm said, “it’s about the worst possible time for the FTC to be claiming novel rulemaking power to address unfair competition issues in a way that it never has before.”
Khan’s methods have drawn intense criticism from the business community, most recently with the agency’s labor-friendly rulemaking banning noncompete agreements in employment contracts. That action relies on the FTC’s interpretation of its authority to allow it to take action in this area — the kind of thing that brings up questions about agency deference.
But the FTC has already had to contend with trends cutting away at agency deference for quite some time. For example, the noncompete rulemaking is already facing scrutiny under the Major Questions Doctrine, which is cited in the US Chamber of Commerce’s challenge. It’s a principle that’s shown up in Supreme Court cases that basically says Congress must grant clear authority for questions of great political or economic significance. The chamber argues in its lawsuit to block the FTC noncompete rule that the Supreme Court has invoked the Major Questions Doctrine “to reject similar attempts by administrative agencies to take unprecedented actions with vast economic and political significance based on nothing more than ambiguous and ancillary statutory text—particularly where the agency has never before pointed to that text as a font of regulatory power.”
“The Supreme Court has taken most of the wind out of the sails of Chevron with the Major Questions Doctrine, in the sense that when an agency enters into a regulatory area that it hasn’t been in before, the Supreme Court has created a strong presumption the agency does not have the authority to regulate,” said Jack Beermann, an administrative law expert and professor at Boston University School of Law. “And so Chevron doesn’t enter into the picture in cases like that.”
David Vladeck, a professor at Georgetown Law who led the FTC Bureau of Consumer Protection from 2009 to 2012, said that “courts started to back off of Chevron” during the Obama administration, decreasing the utility of citing it as a defense. “As a result, lawyers like myself who were representing agencies would not rely on Chevron, and generally wouldn’t cite it because it wasn’t going to change the balance of the case. But it may signal that you need this deference in order to prevail.” Because of that, the overruling of Chevron could have a more muted impact on an agency like the FTC because “by and large, Chevron has been a dead letter for quite some time,” Vladeck said.
Still, there are some areas where it could come into play or exacerbate existing trends. For example, Khan has sought to enforce Section 5 of the FTC Act, governing “unfair methods of competition,” more expansively than in the past. It’s often cited in antitrust cases alongside other federal statutes like the Sherman Act. But in 2022, the FTC released a policy statement saying it could bring enforcement matters under Section 5 on a standalone basis and that authority under the statute goes beyond that of the other federal antitrust laws. Under Chevron, “the agency could rely on deference to their interpretation in order to say what constitutes an unfair method of competition,” said Ryan Quillian, a partner at Covington who served as deputy director of the FTC’s Technology Enforcement Division from 2020 to 2022. But with Friday’s decision, Quillian said, that effort “could be in jeopardy.”
Tech workers on visas and immigration law
With regards to immigration, Chevron deference has given the Department of Homeland Security and its component agencies broad latitude. For example, under Chevron, decisions made by US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) — the federal agency that, among other things, issues non-immigrant, work-based visas like H-1Bs — were more difficult to challenge because of the requirement that courts defer to federal agencies. Tech companies rely heavily on H-1B workers. Nine of the 10 companies that filed the most H-1B petitions during the 2022 fiscal year —including Amazon, Google, and Meta — were in the tech sector, according to federal data analyzed by the Economic Policy Institute.
“In the past, employers have had a hard time overturning narrow interpretations of H-1B issues because of Chevron deference,” Stephen Yale-Loehr, a professor of immigration law practice at Cornell Law School, told The Verge. “Now, however, people who feel that the agency is too stingy in its interpretation of various visa categories may be more likely to seek court review.”
The desire to seek court review, however, will likely depend on an applicant’s location. Jonathan Wasden, a former government attorney whose firm, Wasden Banias, specializes in visa cases, said the overturning of Chevron will likely create a patchwork system. “I was hoping for them to create a framework, but right now it’s really in the eye of the particular judge that’s reviewing your case — which is great if you’re a litigant and an agency is acting silly, but for the government, it’s going to be a big problem,” Wasden told The Verge. “You’re looking at 96 federal courts with all different views of how the statute is supposed to work.”
Going forward, instead of relying on a single framework across the country, USCIS will likely pay more attention to where an applicant is located to determine how statutes will apply to them. “For an agency that already is challenged, it’s going to be tough, because they’re just not that nimble,” Wasden said.
In other words, the amount of recourse available to a person whose H-1B petition is denied by USCIS will depend largely on their location. predicts that the biggest challenge for the government will be in “as applied” cases, or those that argue that the application of a particular statute or policy — and not the statute or policy itself — is unconstitutional. “There’s going to be a lot of individual litigants with compelling facts across the country on the exact same issue, and we’re going to see a variety of ways to resolve and interpret the law in those cases,” Wasden said.
The effects of this patchwork system will not be felt immediately, nor will they be felt evenly. “A lot needs to be worked out,” said Yale-Loehr, “and it will be confusing and complicated for several years.“
Labor and workers’ rights
The overturning of Chevron may make it easier to challenge policies implemented by labor agencies going forward, including efforts to enact workplace safety regulations. The Biden administration has implemented a number of regulations related to workplace safety and worker treatment. This year alone, the Department of Labor extended overtime pay to workers making below $58,656, announced a regulation allowing third parties on worksite inspections, and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission issued new guidance on workplace harassment for the first time since 1999. The regulation raising the salary threshold for overtime pay, slated to go into effect on July 1st, faces multiple legal challenges from industry groups.
In an email to The Verge, Charlotte Garden, a professor of labor law at the University of Minnesota, said the decision to overturn Chevron will likely be “disruptive for workers’ rights.”
“The DOL’s long-standing approach to whether an employee is ‘exempt’ from overtime under the ‘white-collar’ exemption involves looking at both the amount of the employee’s salary, and their duties — so employees are entitled to overtime pay unless they earn more than the salary threshold and perform qualifying duties,” Garden said. Business groups have argued that the DOL “isn’t allowed to set a salary threshold at all” — an argument Garden said is more likely to win now that Chevron is overturned.
“Under Chevron, if a judge thought the [Fair Labor Standards Act] was ambiguous, it would then defer to the DOL’s reasonable interpretation of that statute,” Garden said. “But now, judges are free to decide what they think the best reading is.” As is the case with immigration, different judges will reach different decisions about how to interpret regulations, which could lead to different regulatory schemes across the country.
Under Biden, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) has been working on heat stress regulations intended to protect workers from increasingly high temperatures on the job — a proposal that has already faced pushback.
“It’s much harder for an agency to take big swings when it’s regulatory authority when it’s not going to get a layup when it goes into defendant,” Alexander MacDonald, a shareholder at Littler’s Workplace Policy Institute, told The Verge.
Michael Rubin, a partner with the public interest firm Altshuler Berzon, said the success of these challenges remains to be seen. “They still have to go through the same procedures for challenging it: a challenge goes to court, and it simply means that the courts will take a de novo — fresh look — at the statute,” said Rubin, whose firm has represented gig worker drivers and Apple employees who recently filed a gender discrimination lawsuit against the company. More consequential, Rubin adds, is the fact that the Supreme Court is divided on how to construe statutes and constitutional provisions. “There’s likely to be far more litigation, without the benefit of Chevron deference, resulting in greater uncertainties, greater delays, and more inefficient practices throughout the country,” Rubin said. “It’s going to put an enormous burden on Congress and the courts, as well as the agencies, and it will certainly take months — if not years — to determine the actual impact.”
The right to repair, copyright, patent law, and the Apple Watch ban
Intellectual property issues will probably see the least impact and almost certainly the lowest body count, but the fact that Chevron deference is applicable to any of these issues at all may be illustrative of the sheer scope of the administrative state.
In 2015, an appeals court applied Chevron to the US International Trade Commission. The ITC does many things, but you likely last heard about it in 2023 when it ruled that the Apple Watch infringed on patents for pulse oximetry, resulting in a temporary ban for imports of the Apple Watch. “I do think the demise of Chevron will affect patent law, though I agree most folks will have bigger fish to fry,” Mark Lemley, a professor at Stanford Law School, wrote in an email to The Verge. “The ITC would presumably not be entitled to deference in its interpretation of patent law.”
In 2017, an appeals court — controversially — applied Chevron to the Patent and Trademark Office’s interpretation of patent law. “The PTO makes few substantive rules,” Rebecca Tushnet, a professor at Harvard Law School, wrote in an email. The less agency rulemaking, the less impact overturning Chevron will have.
But there is one notable part of intellectual property law where agency rulemaking matters quite a lot and happens in bulk: every three years, the Copyright Office issues exemptions for DMCA Section 1201. These cover the right to repair, unlocking cellphones, ripping DVDs for archival or educational purposes, taking apart electronic voting machines to test for security issues, and more. The Copyright Office falls under the legislative branch, rather than the executive, where admin law traditionally applies. But earlier in June, an appeals court ruled these DMCA rulemakings were subject to the Administrative Procedure Act, the 1946 statute from which Chevron, Loper Bright, and the entire administrative state stems. These DMCA rulemakings are already contentious, even when enclosed in the usually boring notice-and-comment process — but the combination of this ruling and the death of Chevron may have the recurring triennial conflict sprawling into the courts as well.
To be clear, none of these are necessarily bad outcomes — and as Lemley notes, most people “have bigger fish to fry.” No one is going to think, Well, on the one hand climate change will kill us all, but on the other hand, I have my Apple Watch.
Beyond that, the disempowering of federal agencies means the empowerment of another entity — and in this case, it is the increasingly conservative judiciary. Article III courts do not always make the best decisions, even when it comes to relatively apolitical issues like software copyright. This shift in the balance of power will touch on issues both big and small, dire and inane in the years to come.
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Technology
How Florida retiree lost $200K in fake PayPal refund scam
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Brian Oliver is retired, sharp and financially savvy enough to have a stock-and-bond portfolio worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. He is not the type of person you picture getting scammed. That is exactly why scammers picked him.
What happened to Oliver, 85, is the kind of story that makes your jaw drop, and your stomach turn at the same time. It started with a routine-looking email and ended with a box of gold coins rolling away in the back of a black Mustang. In between, Oliver lost $200,000 and nearly half of his retirement savings.
He told his story on my Beyond Connected podcast at getbeyondconnected.com, along with Detective Justin Torres of the Gainesville Police Department in Florida. What they shared together is equal parts chilling and clarifying.
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BEWARE FAKE CREDIT CARD ACCOUNT RESTRICTION SCAMS
Brian Oliver shares how a routine-looking email pulled him into a sophisticated refund scam that cost him $200,000. (Sebastian Gollnow/picture alliance)
It all started with a PayPal refund scam email
Brian got an email that said PayPal owed him money. It was not a wild claim. He had dealt with PayPal before and figured, “Maybe they found some money for me.” So he responded. The email included a phone number, and that number connected him to a man who called himself Andrew Johnson.
“Yeah, we have $450 for you. Type in the number 100 on your computer and we’ll get it started.”
Brian typed 100. Andrew immediately said he had made a mistake: “Oh no, you put in 10,000.”
Brian pushed back. He said he did not type 10,000. Andrew told him to check his Bank of America account. Brian opened it, and there it was: $10,000 sitting in his checking account.
Except it was not real. The scammers had somehow mirrored his bank’s website. What Brian saw looked exactly like his actual Bank of America page, complete with a new balance and a phone number embedded in the “Contact Us” section. That number was fake, too.
Brian called it. A man named Josh answered, identifying himself as a Bank of America representative. He told Brian that the only way to return the money without triggering a $3,500 tax penalty was to withdraw $10,000 in cash and feed it into a crypto ATM.
How the PayPal refund scam tricked Brian
Oliver had never heard of a crypto ATM before that day. Josh helpfully told him exactly where to find one. It was in a sketchy part of town, and Oliver walked in carrying $10,000 in his pocket.
“I’m on my knees, on a cement floor, and I’m 85,” Oliver said.
He fed one hundred $100 bills into the machine, bill by bill, watching over his shoulder the entire time. Some bills got kicked back out. He fed them in again. When the machine finally accepted all of them, he photographed the receipt and sent it to Andrew Johnson, just as he had been instructed.
Then Oliver went home and told Andrew it was done. Andrew told him they still had to take care of his refund. He told Oliver to type in the number 200.
FAKE PAYPAL EMAIL LET HACKERS ACCESS COMPUTER AND BANK ACCOUNT
Oliver typed it. Andrew’s response came fast: “Oh my God, my boss is going to kill me. It’s $200,000 we’ve transferred to your account.”
This type of scam is becoming more common, and it often involves criminals impersonating trusted platforms like PayPal.
“PayPal does not tolerate fraudulent activity, and we work hard to protect our customers from evolving phishing scams,” a spokesperson for PayPal told CyberGuy. “We always encourage consumers to learn how to spot the warning signs of common fraud, including our tips on the PayPal Newsroom for identifying phishing emails that attempt to impersonate trusted brands. We further recommend contacting Customer Support for assistance through official channels such as the PayPal app and our Contact Us webpage, and never responding to suspicious, unexpected emails.”
How the scam escalated to $200,000 in gold
Oliver opened his bank account again. The fake mirrored site showed $200,000 sitting there. Josh Wilson was back on the phone with a new plan. This time, the crypto ATM would not work because the amount was too large. Oliver needed to liquidate $200,000 from his stock and bond portfolio, convert it to cash and use it to buy gold coins.
Oliver protested. He told them to just reverse the transfer. They said it was impossible.
“This is my retirement money. 50% of my retirement money,” he said.
The scammers told him not to breathe a word to anyone. Josh specifically warned him that telling his broker the truth could trigger tax problems. So Oliver called his broker and said he had his eye on a piece of real estate he wanted to flip. The broker processed the sale without question.
YOUTUBE JOB SCAM TEXT: HOW TO SPOT IT FAST
Oliver went to a gold coin store, wrote a check for $198,560 and waited two to three days for it to clear. Andrew Johnson stayed in regular contact the entire time.
When the gold was ready, Johnson gave Oliver one final instruction. A courier would come to his door to pick up the box. Before handing it over, Oliver should ask the courier for a password. The password was “blue.”
The courier arrived. He was driving a black Mustang. He said the word blue. Oliver handed over the box.
“He told me the password,” Oliver said. “I handed the box, and off went my $200,000.”
The moment Brian Oliver realized it was all a scam
The day after the courier left, Andrew Johnson called back with urgency. He told Brian Oliver another $200,000 had landed in his account, and they needed to do the whole thing over again. That was the moment it broke.
“That’s when I came out from under the ether of this scam,” Oliver said. “And I said, this cannot be right.”
He immediately called the Gainesville Police Department.
The high-stakes sting that brought down a scam courier
Detective Justin Torres of the Gainesville Police Department took the call and started working the case immediately. The scammers had asked Oliver for photos of the gold and the purchase receipt, which gave law enforcement about a day and a half to set up an operation before the courier was scheduled to return.
Detective Torres pulled in four officers from the department’s Gun Violence Initiative unit, a team of intermediate detectives trained for exactly this kind of boots-on-ground work. They set up covert and marked vehicles around Oliver’s residence at a careful distance.
“It was pretty high intensity because I’m listening to Mr. Oliver’s conversation with Andrew,” Torres said. “And I’m also trying to be a good distance away to listen to my radio and be able to broadcast what I need to to the other officers on the outside.”
The scammers were suspicious. They kept pushing Oliver to be more compliant. Oliver pushed back. The goal was to keep them on the line long enough for the courier to show up. The courier, a man named Seth Wayne, drove in from Tampa. The officers waited. When he arrived, they arrested him. The case went to trial. Seth Wayne received an 18-year prison sentence.
A federal jury has since convicted a second courier in the same scheme. Atharva Shailesh Sathawane, 22, an undocumented immigrant from India, was found guilty of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and money laundering, with Brian Oliver among his victims.
Sathawane was arrested after the Gainesville Police Department set up a second sting operation at Brian’s home. Court documents showed Sathawane was involved in more than 30 transactions across multiple states, contributing to nearly $8 million stolen from elderly victims. He faces up to 20 years on each count, with sentencing scheduled for Dec. 16 in Gainesville, though he is appealing his conviction.
How refund scams are hitting multiple victims
The scam began with a convincing message and quickly escalated as criminals guided Brian Oliver step by step through fake account activity. (Halfpoint/iStock/Getty Images)
Ten other victims testified at Seth Wayne’s trial. They had come from all over the state of Florida, and their stories made Oliver furious.
Some had received fake arrest warrants, official-looking documents claiming their identities had been tied to gun running. They were told the only way to clear their names was to pull their savings and buy gold, which would be placed in a special locker in Washington, D.C., until their names were cleared.
One victim lost $1.8 million. Another lost $4.9 million. A third woman lost over $1 million across two separate pickups by the same courier. Her husband was in hospice care in Florida while all of this was happening. She drained her entire life savings, sold her condo and had to move in with her daughter and son-in-law in Alabama, leaving her dying husband behind.
Where the money from refund scams actually goes
Once the gold or cash leaves a victim’s hands, recovery is nearly impossible. Most of Seth Wayne’s deliveries went to parking lots at McDonald’s or shopping centers, where he handed the money directly to a controller. One pickup went to a jewelry store, where an employee came outside to collect it. That connection is still under active investigation by the IRS and FBI.
The call centers running these operations are overseas. Higher-level couriers in the United States are still being investigated. The full network is, as Detective Torres put it, “very intricate” and “very complicated.”
Seth Wayne himself was a mid-to-upper-level courier. He was also paying other couriers and compensating his handler. When investigators downloaded his cell phone after a judge-approved search warrant, they found evidence that he had researched exactly what he was doing before deciding the money was worth the risk.
SCAMS THAT AREN’T ILLEGAL (BUT SHOULD BE)
The defense of “willful blindness,” the idea that a courier can claim ignorance and escape responsibility, no longer holds up in Florida courts. Seth Wayne found that out the hard way.
For a deeper look at what Oliver went through, you can hear the full story on my Beyond Connected podcast at getbeyondconeccted.com.
How to stay safe from refund scams
Detective Torres laid out the most important red flags clearly, and Oliver added a few from painful personal experience. Here is what both of them want you to know.
1) Hang up on urgency
Scammers manufacture pressure because it works. If someone on the phone is telling you that you must act right now, that is not a real emergency. That is a tactic. Torres put it directly: “They want to make you believe that you have to do all this right now.”
2) Never call the number they give you
If someone calls claiming to be from PayPal, your bank or a law enforcement agency, hang up and find the real number yourself. The number embedded in Oliver’s fake bank website looked completely legitimate. It was not.
3) Pause for ten seconds
Literally ten seconds. Detective Torres confirmed what many security experts say: “If you pause these scams for just 10 seconds, many of them will just fall apart.” A scammer who is pushed back even slightly will often overreact, and that reaction will feel wrong.
4) Isolation is the biggest red flag
The moment someone on the phone tells you not to tell a family member, friend or neighbor what is happening, stop. That instruction exists for one reason: to prevent you from getting help before they get your money. “Once you start hearing that isolation conversation, that is the biggest red flag,” Torres said. “You need to hang up the phone.”
5) Gold is always a scam signal
Oliver made this one simple: “If you’re told to go buy gold, the only reason they tell you to buy gold is because it can never be traced. It’s a scam.” No legitimate company, government agency or financial institution will ever ask you to buy gold coins and hand them to a stranger.
6) The courier at your door means stop
If you have already bought gold and someone is coming to your home to pick it up in a box, Oliver’s advice is direct: “Stop right there. It’s a scam.”
7) Never move money to fix a ‘mistake’
If someone claims they accidentally sent you money and asks you to return it, stop right there. Real companies fix errors on their own systems. They will not ask you to withdraw cash, buy crypto or purchase gold to correct a transaction.
8) Verify your account on your own device
If you need to check your bank account, use your official banking app or type the website yourself. Do not trust links, screens or phone numbers provided during a call. In many cases, scammers create fake sites that look identical to the real thing.
9) Be wary of step-by-step instructions
Scammers often stay on the phone and guide you through every move. That level of control should raise concern. Legitimate companies do not walk you through withdrawing cash, using crypto ATMs or buying gold to solve a problem.
10) Bring in a second person
Before moving a large amount of money, pause and call someone you trust. A quick conversation with a family member or friend can shift your perspective. In many cases, that outside voice is enough to stop a scam in progress.
11) Limit how much of your information is online
Scammers build convincing stories using real details they find online. This can include your phone number, home address or financial history. To reduce that risk, consider removing your information from data broker and people-search sites. While you can do this manually, it often takes time, which is why some people use a data removal service such as Incogni to help automate the process and keep their information from resurfacing.
Check out my top picks for data removal services and get a free scan to find out if your personal information is already out on the web by visiting Cyberguy.com.
Get a free scan to find out if your personal information is already out on the web: Cyberguy.com.
Scammers often operate behind the scenes, using technology and social engineering to manipulate victims into handing over cash or valuables. (Paul Chinn/The San Francisco Chronicle/Getty Images)
Kurt’s key takeaways
Brian Oliver lost $200,000, leaving him with only half of his retirement savings. Today, he says he is slowly sinking toward bankruptcy, and the odds of getting that money back are slim. Even so, he chose to go public so others could hear his story before it happens to them. What makes this case different is that it led to real consequences. Detective Torres and his team moved quickly and set up a sting operation. As a result, they arrested a courier who later received an 18-year prison sentence. Meanwhile, the IRS and FBI are still investigating the larger network. However, this kind of outcome is rare. In most cases, victims lose everything and never see justice. These scams are complex, often run from overseas, and are designed to move money fast. Because of that, law enforcement usually focuses on the people closest to the victim and works backward. In the end, Oliver’s turning point came during a second demand for money. At that moment, something felt off, so he paused. Then he said, “This cannot be right.” That instinct matters. In many cases, that brief pause is enough to break the scam.
If you were in Oliver’s position, at what exact moment do you think you would have stopped, and what would it have taken for you to make that call? Let us know by writing to us at Cyberguy.com.
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Technology
BEWARE SOFTWARE BRAIN
Today on Decoder, I want to lay out an idea that’s been banging around my head for weeks now as we’ve been reporting on AI and having conversations here on this show. I’ve been calling it software brain, and it’s a particular way of seeing the world that fits everything into algorithms, databases and loops — software.
Software brain is powerful stuff. It’s a way of thinking that basically created our modern world. Marc Andreessen, the literal embodiment of software brain, called it in 2011 when he wrote the piece “Why software is eating the world” as an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal. But software thinking has been turbocharged by AI in a way that I think helps explain the enormous gap between how excited the tech industry is about the technology and how regular people are growing to dislike it more and more over time.
In fact, the polling on this is so strong, I think it’s fair to say that a lot of people hate AI. And Gen Z in particular seems to hate AI more and more as they encounter it. There’s that NBC News poll showing AI with worse favorability than ICE and only a little bit above the war in Iran and the Democrats generally. That’s with nearly two thirds of respondents saying they used ChatGPT or Copilot in the last month. Quinnipiac just found that over half of Americans think AI will do more harm than good, while more than 80 percent of people were either very concerned or somewhat concerned about the technology. Only 35 percent of people were excited about it.
Poll after poll shows that Gen Z uses AI the most and has the most negative feelings about it. A recent Gallup poll found that only 18 percent of Gen Z was hopeful about AI, down from an already-bad 27 percent last year. At the same time, anger is growing: 31 percent of those Gen Z respondents said they feel angry about AI, up from 22 percent last year.
Now, I obviously talk to a lot of tech executives and policy people here on Decoder, and I will tell you, they all know AI isn’t popular, and they can all see how that’s playing out in real life. Here’s Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella talking about how the tech industry needs to make the case for the investments it’s making in AI:
Satya Nadella: At the end of the day, I think this industry, to which I belong, needs to earn the social permission to consume energy because we’re doing good in the world.
I think it’s safe to say that the tech industry and AI have not earned any of that social permission yet. Politicians from both sides of the aisle are opposing data center buildouts. Politicians in local communities that support data centers are getting voted out of office. And in the most depressing reminder of how much political violence has become a part of everyday American life, politicians who’ve supported data centers have had their houses shot at. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has had Molotov cocktails thrown at his house.
It’s sad that I’m going to have to say this again on the show, and it’s sad that we’re going to have commenters who disagree, but this violence is unacceptable. If you want to meaningfully oppose AI in a way that lasts, you should speak loudly with your dollars in the market and your attention online, and you should speak loudly with your votes. You should participate in a democratic regulatory and political process. Anything else will get dismissed and perpetuate the cycle. That dismissal is already happening.
I also think it’s incredibly important for our politicians and tech executives to make sure our political process makes people feel empowered, not helpless, which is a specific kind of nihilism they have all greatly contributed to. The violence is a result of that helplessness and nihilism. And the most powerful people in our society ought to reckon with that, especially as they run around saying AI will wipe out all the jobs. I’m not even exaggerating this. Here’s Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei saying he thinks AI will wipe out all the jobs:
Dario Amodei: Entry-level jobs in areas like finance, consulting, tech and many other areas like that —- entry-level white-collar work — I worry that those things are going to be first augmented, but before long replaced by AI systems. We may indeed —- it’s hard to predict the future — but we may indeed have a serious employment crisis on our hands as the pipeline for this early-stage, white-collar work starts to contract and dry up.
What I see when I encounter clips like this is the true gap between the tech industry and regular people when it comes to AI — and also the limit of software brain. Like I said, everyone in tech understands how much regular people dislike AI. What I think they’re missing is why. They think this is a marketing problem. OpenAI just spent $200 million on the TBPN podcast because the company thinks it will help make people like AI more. Sam Altman has said so explicitly:
Sam Altman: Oh, they are genius marketers and I would love to have better marketing. Somebody said to me recently that if AI were a political candidate, it would be the least popular political candidate in history. And given the amazing things AI can do, I think there’s got to be better marketing for AI.
It feels like someone just needs to say this clearly, so I’m just going to do it. AI doesn’t have a marketing problem. People experience these tools every single day. ChatGPT has 900 million weekly users, trending to a billion, and everyone has seen AI Overviews in Google Search and massive amounts of slop on their feeds. You can’t advertise people out of reacting to their own experiences. This is a fundamental disconnect between how tech people with software brains see the world and how regular people are living their lives.
Image: The Verge
So what is software brain? The simplest definition I’ve come up with is that it’s when you see the whole world as a series of databases that can be controlled with structured language and software code. Like I said, this is a powerful way of seeing things. So much of our lives run through databases, and a bunch of important companies have been built around maintaining those databases and providing access to them.
Zillow is a database of houses. Uber is a database of cars and riders. YouTube is a database of videos. The Verge’s website is a database of stories. You can go on and on and on. Once you start seeing the world as a bunch of databases, it’s a small jump to feeling like you can control everything if you can just control the data.
But that doesn’t always work. Here’s an example: Elon Musk and DOGE showed up in the government, and the first thing they did was take control of a bunch of databases. And they ran into the undeniable fact that the databases aren’t reality, and DOGE ended in hilarious failure. It turns out software brain has a limit, and the government isn’t software. People aren’t computers, and they don’t live in automatable loops that can be neatly captured in databases.
Anyone who’s actually ever run a database knows this. At some point, the database stops matching reality. And at that point, we usually end up tweaking the database, not the world. The AI industry has fully lost sight of this. AI thrives on data. It’s just software. And so the ask is for more and more of us to conform our lives to the database, not the other way around.
Let me offer you another example that I think about all the time, especially as AI finds real fit as a business tool. It’s the idea that AI is coming for lawyers and the legal system. The AI industry loves to talk about not needing lawyers anymore, which is already getting all kinds of people into all kinds of trouble. But I get it. I’ve spent a lot of time with lawyers. I used to be a lawyer. My wife is still a lawyer. Some of my best friends are lawyers.

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I also spend all of my time at work talking to tech people. And so over time, I’ve learned that the overlap between software brain and lawyer brain is very, very deep. Alluringly deep. If the heart of software brain is the idea that thinking in the structured language of code can make things happen in the real world, well, the heart of lawyer brain is that thinking in the structured legal language of statutes and citations can also make things happen. Hell, it can give you power over society.
There are other commonalities. Both software development and the law depend heavily on precedent. We have a body of case law in this country, and we use it over and over again to help us resolve disputes. Much like software engineers have libraries of code that they turn to repeatedly to build the foundations of their products. I can go on.
At the end of the day, both lawyers and engineers do their best to use formal, structured language to guide the behavior of complicated systems in predictable and potentially profitable ways. I am far from the first person with this idea. Larry Lessig wrote a book called Code and Other Laws of Cyberspace in 2000. It’s just as relevant today as it was a quarter century ago.
And so you have this intoxicating similarity between law and code, and it trips people up all the time. People are constantly trying to issue commands to society at large like it’s a computer that will obey instructions. There are examples of this big and small. My favorite are those Facebook forwards insisting Mark Zuckerberg does not have the right to publish people’s photos. Honestly, I look at these, and I think it would be great if the law was actually code. Maybe things would be more predictable. Maybe we’d feel more in control.
But law isn’t actually code, and society and courts aren’t computers. I have to remind our fairly technical audience on Decoder and at The Verge all the time that the law is not deterministic. You simply cannot take the facts of a case, the law as written, and predict the outcome of that case with any real certainty, even though the formality of the legal system makes people think it works like a computer, that it’s predictable.
Because at the end of the day, it’s actually ambiguity that’s at the very heart of our legal system. It’s ambiguity that makes lawyers lawyers. Honestly, it’s ambiguity that makes people hate lawyers because it’s always possible to argue the other side, and it’s always possible to find the gray area in the law. That’s why prosecutors end up working as defense attorneys and why our regulators tend to end up working for big corporations.
So you can see the obvious collision between software brain and lawyer brain. This thing that looks like a computer isn’t actually anything at all like a computer. A lot of people even argue that the law should be more like a computer, that the system should be verifiable and consistent, and that merely issuing the right commands at the right times should lead to objectively correct outcomes.
Bridget McCormack, who used to be the chief justice of the Michigan Supreme Court, was on Decoder a few months ago pitching a fully automated AI arbitration system. Her argument to me was that people perceive the traditional legal system to be so unfair, they will accept a worse outcome from an automated system as more fair as long as they feel heard. And if there’s one thing AI can do, it’s sit there and listen all day and night. I don’t know if any of that is correct or even workable, but I do know software brain, and that is pure software brain. The idea that we can force the real world to act like a computer and then have AI issue that computer instructions.
You can see the same thing happening in every other kind of industry. You don’t hire a big consulting firm to actually come in and study your business and make it more efficient. You hire them to make slide decks that justify layoffs to your board and shareholders. Big consulting firms are great at this, and now they’re just going to generate those decks with AI. They are already doing this and the layoffs have already begun.
Any business process that looks like code talking to a database in a repetitive way is up for grabs. That’s why Anthropic has been so relentlessly focused on enterprise customers, and it’s why OpenAI is now pivoting to business use. There’s real value in introducing AI to business because so much of modern business is already software, collecting data, analyzing it, and taking action on it over and over again in a loop. Businesses also control their data, and they can demand that all their databases work together. In this way, software brain has ruled the business world for a long time. And AI has made it easier than ever for more people to make more software than ever before, for every kind of business to automate big chunks of itself with software. The absolute cutting edge of advertising and marketing is automation with AI. It’s not being in creative.
But not everything is a business, not everything is a loop, and the entire human experience cannot be captured in a database. That’s the limit of software brain. That’s why people hate AI. It flattens them. Regular people don’t see the opportunity to write code as an opportunity at all. The people do not yearn for automation. I’m a full-on smart home sicko; the lights and shades and climate controls of this house are automated in dozens of ways. But huge companies like Apple, Google and Amazon have struggled for over a decade now to make regular people care about smart home automation at all. And they just don’t.
AI isn’t going to fix that. Most people are not collecting data about every single thing that they do. And if they’re collecting any at all, it’s stored across lots of different systems — your email in Gmail, your messages in iMessage, your work schedule in Outlook, your workouts in Peloton. Those systems don’t talk to each other and maybe they never will, because there’s no reason for them to. And asking people to connect them all freaks them out.
Even taking the time to consider how much of your life is captured in databases makes people unhappy. No one wants to be surveilled constantly, and especially not in a way that makes tech companies even more powerful. But getting everything in a database so software can see it is a preoccupation of the AI industry. It’s why all the meeting systems have AI note takers in them now. It’s why Canva, which is design software, now connects to corporate email systems. My friend Ezra Klein just went to Silicon Valley, and he described the people that are actively trying to flatten themselves into a database:
Ezra Klein: You might think that A.I. types in Silicon Valley, flush with cash, are on top of the world right now. I found them notably insecure. They think the A.I. age has arrived and its winners and losers will be determined, in part, by speed of adoption. The argument is simple enough: The advantages of working atop an army of A.I. assistants and coders will compound over time, and to begin that process now is to launch yourself far ahead of your competition later. And so they are racing one another to fully integrate A.I. into their lives and into their companies. But that doesn’t just mean using A.I. It means making themselves legible to the A.I.
You can give it access to everything that’s there: your files, your email, your calendar, your messages. It operates continuously in the background, building a persistent memory of your preferences and patterns so it can better act on your behalf. The cybersecurity risks are glaring, but there’s a reason millions of people are using it: The more of your life you open to A.I., the more valuable the A.I. becomes.
I’ve reviewed a lot of tech products over the past decade and a half, and all I can tell you is that it is a failure when you ask people to adapt to computers. Computers should adapt to people. And asking people to make themselves more legible to software, to turn themselves into a database, is a doomed idea. It’s an ask so big, I can’t imagine a reward that would make it worth it for anyone, even if the tech industry wasn’t constantly talking about how AI will eliminate all the jobs, require a wholesale rethinking of the social contract and — oops — also the latest models might cause catastrophic cybersecurity problems that might lead to the end of the world.
Does this sound like a good deal to you? Can you market your way out of this? This only makes sense if you have software brain, if your operative framework is to flatten everything into databases that you can control with structured language. The people paying thousands of dollars a month to set up swarms of OpenClaw agents and write thousands of lines of code, they’re people who look at the world and see opportunities for automation, to repeat tasks, to collect data, to build software. AI is great for them. It’s even exciting in ways that I think are important and will probably change our relationship to computers forever.
For everyone else, AI is just a demanding slop monster. It’s a threat. I’m not saying regular people don’t use Excel or Airtable to plan their weddings or have fun throwing PowerPoint parties, or even that AI won’t be useful to regular people over time. I think a lot of people enjoy data and tracking different parts of their lives. There’s my WHOOP band. I’m just saying these things aren’t everything. Not everything about our lives can be measured and automated and optimized. It shouldn’t be.
And so the tech industry is rushing forward to put AI everywhere at enormous cost — energy, emissions, manufacturing capacity, the ability to buy RAM — and locked into the narrow framework of software brain without realizing they are also asking people to be fundamentally less human. They then sit around wondering why everyone hates them. I don’t think a couple haircuts are going to fix it.
Questions or comments about this episode? Hit us up at decoder@theverge.com. We really do read every email!
Decoder with Nilay Patel
A podcast from The Verge about big ideas and other problems.
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