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Projecting final 4 NFL playoff teams’ odds to win Super Bowl, with conference title game analysis

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Projecting final 4 NFL playoff teams’ odds to win Super Bowl, with conference title game analysis

The road to the Super Bowl goes through Kansas City. After dispatching the Houston Texans, the Chiefs will play in the AFC Championship Game for a seventh straight year. They’re now just two wins away from the greatest achievement in the Super Bowl era: a three-peat. Standing in their way are the Buffalo Bills, who defeated the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night and now have a chance to dethrone the reigning two-time champions.

In the NFC, the Commanders shocked the world by upsetting the Detroit Lions on Saturday night and will try to repeat the feat next weekend against the Philadelphia Eagles, who took down the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.

Jeff Howe breaks down the conference championship game matchups before The Athletic’s NFL Projection Model, created by Austin Mock, reveals each remaining team’s odds of winning the Super Bowl.

AFC

No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, 1-0 playoffs) vs. No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4, 2-0 playoffs)

The powers of the AFC wouldn’t budge this season, as the Chiefs and Bills will meet on the AFC Championship Game stage for the second time in four years.

The Bills finalized the showdown Sunday evening with a thrilling 27-25 victory against the Baltimore Ravens. Quarterback Josh Allen outdueled fellow MVP candidate Lamar Jackson, as the Bills star finished 16-of-22 for 127 yards with a couple of rushing scores to help ward off Baltimore’s comeback bid.

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The Chiefs were somewhat shaky in their postseason debut, but they knocked off the Texans by a decisive 23-14 margin despite the visitors outpacing them in yards, time of possession, first downs and third-down conversions. That’s because the defense (eight sacks, 14 QB hits) and special teams still carry plenty of weight, and the Chiefs are the most well-balanced team in the field.

The Chiefs, as we mentioned earlier, are on a quest to become the first team in history to win three consecutive Super Bowls. They’ve hoisted the Lombardi Trophy three times since coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes aligned.

It hasn’t been an explosive season for Mahomes, who has more games with fewer than 200 passing yards (five) than over 300 yards (three), including the divisional round. But he hasn’t been making mistakes, accounting for 13 touchdowns (one rushing) since his last interception two months ago.

Mahomes also has 15 touchdowns against just two interceptions (both in a loss to the Cincinnati Bengals) in six AFC Championship Games. In fact, the Chiefs haven’t committed a single turnover over their past eight games. That’ll be a focal point against the Bills, who notched three takeaways Sunday against the Ravens and have forced multiple turnovers in 11 of 19 games this season.

Mahomes hasn’t gotten a lot of help. His offensive tackles have been poor — at least when left guard Joe Thuney isn’t moonlighting at left tackle — and his skill players have been in and out of the lineup with injuries.

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But he still has Travis Kelce, who just ripped off the ninth 100-yard game of his playoff career. The 35-year-old future Pro Football Hall of Famer’s production dipped considerably during the regular season, but Kelce is as clutch as ever in the playoffs. He’s had at least 70 yards in 14 consecutive postseason games — averaging 99.1 yards per outing over that stretch. He also has led the league in receiving touchdowns in four of the past five postseasons.

And yet, the NFL’s modern-day dynasty will be tasked with one question all week: Can they stop Allen?

Allen completed 63.6 percent of his passes during the regular season for 3,731 yards, 28 touchdowns and a career-low six interceptions, and he added 531 rushing yards and a dozen scores.

Allen was 27-of-40 for 262 yards, one touchdown and one interception when the Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21 in Week 11. He added 55 rushing yards, including a 26-yard touchdown on a pivotal fourth-and-2. That was the Chiefs’ only loss this season with Mahomes as the starter, and it might have been the performance that launched Allen’s MVP campaign.

The Chiefs are 6-3 in the AFC Championship during the Super Bowl era, including 4-2 with Mahomes, while the Bills are 4-3. The Chiefs are 4-2 in the playoffs against the Bills, including three consecutive wins over the previous four years.

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• Chiefs’ chances to win Super Bowl: 30.1%
Bills’ chances to win Super Bowl: 25.5%

Chances to win the Super Bowl

Team

  

Odds

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33.5%

30.1%

25.5%

11%

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NFC

No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, 2-0 playoffs) vs. No. 6 Washington Commanders (12-5, 2-0 playoffs)

The NFC North wore the crown all season, but the NFC East is chasing the ring.

The Eagles and Commanders meet in the NFC Championship Game after splitting the regular-season series, with the Commanders claiming a 36-33 home victory in their most recent meeting in Week 16. The Eagles needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Commanders 26-18 in Week 11, so both games were close.

The Eagles may want an asterisk for their loss, as quarterback Jalen Hurts was knocked out early with a concussion, but their 33 points was the sixth-highest output of the season behind a strong Kenny Pickett performance. The far more important story was that the Eagles couldn’t win despite a 5-2 advantage in the turnover battle.

So what happens if the Eagles can’t drum up enough takeaways in the third installment? Maybe that’s also a moot point, as they had a narrow 1-0 edge in takeaways in the earlier win. It’s a rare occasion when turnovers haven’t made the difference in either outcome.

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Still, the Commanders won’t want to test that theory any further. The Eagles have forced 30 turnovers in their last 13 games, including a couple of forced fumbles during a pivotal second-half stretch as they eliminated the Los Angeles Rams 28-22 in the divisional round.

GO DEEPER

The Commanders are a win away from the Super Bowl. Let that marinate for a bit

Daniels has had the Commanders’ offense playing at an elite level during their pair of road victories in the playoffs. They’ve scored on 11 of 16 possessions, excluding sequences to close out halves, and have punted just a single time. They’ve turned it over on downs three times — a risk-reward formula that’s been a net positive — but don’t have any interceptions or lost fumbles. They also have a missed field goal.

Daniels’ command in all situations has been remarkable. While the rookie possesses a clutch gene that’s come in handy during their game-winning drives this season, Daniels did an impressive job Saturday night of keeping the pressure on the top-seeded Lions, leading the Commanders to scores on four of their five possessions following a Detroit score. The exception was a missed field goal, so Daniels continuously kept the ball moving when the Lions were attempting to make a run.

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Daniels will need to be great to get the Commanders to their first Super Bowl in 33 years, and the evidence suggests he’ll rise to that challenge. He passed for 1,522 yards, 17 touchdowns and four interceptions during their seven-game winning streak, and he added 422 yards and a score on the ground. However, three of Daniels’ nine interceptions this season have come against the Eagles.

Hurts and the Eagles passing attack has been pedestrian since his return from a concussion. He had 259 passing yards and two touchdowns in the two playoff wins, although he had 106 yards and a score as a rusher. Wide receivers A.J. Brown (three catches for 24 yards) and DeVonta Smith (eight catches for 76 yards) haven’t made much of an impact as a result.

But fear not, as the Eagles still have running back Saquon Barkley. The best offseason addition in the league had 324 rushing yards and two touchdowns in two playoff games, as he hasn’t slowed down since his torrid regular season.

These teams have one postseason meeting, with Washington taking their wild-card matchup on Jan. 5, 1991. The Commanders are 90-86-6 in the all-time series.

The Commanders are 5-1 in conference championships during the Super Bowl era, while the Eagles are 4-4.

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• Eagles’ chances to win Super Bowl: 33.5%
Commanders’ chances to win Super Bowl: 11%

(Photo of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen: Ryan Kang / Getty Images)

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Trump admin says SJSU now faces ‘impending enforcement’ for transgender volleyball scandal conflict

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Trump admin says SJSU now faces ‘impending enforcement’ for transgender volleyball scandal conflict

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FIRST ON FOX: President Donald Trump’s Department of Education said it has notified San Jose State University (SJSU) that it faces “impending enforcement action” for its “refusal to comply with Title IX.” 

SJSU and the California State University (CSU) system filed a lawsuit earlier in March to challenge an Education Department investigation that determined the university violated Title IX in its handling of a biological male transgender volleyball player on a women’s team from 2022-24. 

Now, the administration is cracking down against that resistance. 

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“We have provided SJSU with multiple opportunities to resolve its Title IX violations with common sense actions: separating male and female athletes based on their biological sex, keeping men out of women’s locker rooms and bathrooms, restoring rightfully-earned titles and accolades to female athletes, and apologizing to the women forced to forfeit competitions to protect themselves,” Kimberly Richey, the department’s assistant secretary for civil rights, said in an announcement. 

“Yet, SJSU remains obstinate, choosing a radical ideology over safety, dignity, and fairness for its own students. With today’s action, the Department is putting the university on notice: comply with the law or risk losing its federal funding.”

Fox News Digital has reached out to SJSU and CSU for a response.

Brooke Slusser and Blaire Fleming of the San Jose State Spartans call a play against the Air Force Falcons on Oct. 19, 2024, in Colorado Springs, Colorado. (Andrew Wevers/Getty Images)

The conflict between Trump’s administration and the school stems back to the 2024 season, when a national controversy involving transgender player Blaire Fleming triggered an election-cycle media firestorm, all during Trump’s third White House campaign. 

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The Education Department’s investigation has claimed, “SJSU actively recruited and allowed a male to compete on the women’s indoor and beach volleyball teams and reportedly instructed members of the coaching staff not to tell the female players that the athlete was a male.” 

The investigation added that “on multiple occasions, the male athlete spiked the ball so forcefully that it knocked females on the opposing team to the ground.” 

One of the standout details of the investigation’s findings was that a female SJSU player “discovered that the male student had conspired to have a member of the opposing team spike her in the face during an upcoming match. SJSU did not investigate the conspiracy, but later subjected this female athlete to a Title IX complaint for reportedly ‘misgendering’ the male athlete when discussing this incident in online videos and interviews.” 

Former SJSU co-captain Brooke Slusser has included those allegations in her ongoing lawsuit against representatives of SJSU and CSU. 

UNIVERSITY LEADER ADMITS SCHOOLS ARE ‘NOT A POLITICAL PARTY’ IN WARNING TO ELITE CAMPUSES

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After SJSU and CSU announced they were suing the Trump administration to challenge the findings, Slusser, and other former NCAA players, came forward about their alleged experience during the scandal, and how it affected them, in recent interviews with Fox News Digital. 

Slusser, who shared an apartment with Fleming at SJSU without knowing the athlete’s birth sex, became the subject of viral debate after her interview reflecting on the experience sharing spaces with Fleming. 

“You find out you’re just chilling in a bed with a man that you have no idea about… I [was] unknowingly sharing a bed at that time with a man,” Slusser said, also alleging SJSU volleyball coach Todd Kress encouraged her to live in the same apartment as the trans teammate when another group of players was also looking for a final tenant. 

Former Utah State volleyball star Kaylie Ray told Fox News Digital that during matches against SJSU and Fleming in 2022 and ’23, before Fleming’s birth sex was known, she had teammates suffer finger injuries from the trans athlete’s spikes. 

“I had teammates who had seriously jammed their fingers, luckily not broken, but a handful of girls who had sustained minor injuries from the male player,” Ray said, adding, “We knew that if the male athlete had a phenomenal game, there was nothing we could do to stop that person.” 

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Ray’s Utah State team became one of five teams to forfeit at least one game to SJSU in 2024, seemingly in protest of Fleming. She says the forfeit impacted her team’s hopes of winning their fourth straight Mountain West championship. 

Meanwhile, the University of Wyoming forfeited two matches to SJSU in 2024. Former Cowgirls player Macey Boggs told Fox News Digital that the decisions to forfeit the games “permanently ruined” friendships among her teammates. 

“There were some of the girls who I really enjoyed, and we got along great, and then this situation came up, some conflict came up, and ultimately we went in separate directions because of that… as soon as we played in our last game, we all went in separate directions… it was hard to maintain those relationships,” Boggs said. 

SJSU was plagued by a separate Title IX violation in sports that it had to resolve with the Biden administration in 2021. The university ultimately came to a $1.6 million resolution with the Department of Justice in 2021. 

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The DOJ found that SJSU failed for more than a decade to respond adequately to reports of sexual harassment, including sexual assault, of female student-athletes by an athletic trainer then working at SJSU, beginning in 2009 when female student-athletes reported that the trainer subjected them to repeated, unwelcome sexual touching.

The department and SJSU entered into a comprehensive agreement to address the findings of the investigation, which began in June 2020 during Trump’s first term. 

Now, Trump’s current administration is giving the school 10 more days to comply with a series of resolution agreements to resolve the volleyball situation, or face enforcement action, including referral to the DOJ and termination of SJSU’s federal funding.

Follow Fox News Digital’s sports coverage on X, and subscribe to the Fox News Sports Huddle newsletter.

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‘I’m back’: Tiger Woods to play in TGL championship match with Masters status still unclear

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‘I’m back’: Tiger Woods to play in TGL championship match with Masters status still unclear

Some major Tiger Woods news broke Monday night.

It had nothing to do with the Masters — not directly anyway.

The 50-year-old golfing legend will be playing competitively for the first time in more than a year as his Jupiter Links team competes against Los Angeles in the second match of the best-of-three TGL finals Tuesday night in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.

TGL is a high-tech, indoor golf league that uses simulators and real surfaces, founded by Woods, Rory McIlroy and Mike McCarley in 2022. While a TGL match doesn’t present the same physical challenge as a PGA Tour event, the team event could serve as Woods’ first step toward playing at Augusta National on April 9-12.

Woods last played competitively March 4, 2025, in Jupiter’s final TGL match of that season. He missed all of the PGA season last year as he recovered from a 2024 back surgery and surgery in March 2025 for a ruptured Achilles tendon. Last fall, he underwent disk replacement surgery in his lower back.

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A five-time Masters winner, most recently in 2019, Woods is listed as a 2026 invitee on the tournament website but has yet to confirm his participation.

Last month at the Genesis Invitational, a reporter asked Woods if the Masters was “off the table” for him this year. Woods answered simply, “No.”

In the opening match of the TGL finals Monday night, Jupiter lost 6-5, with Kevin Kisner narrowly missing a birdie chip from 20 feet that would have won the match. Woods was on hand as a team captain and supporter, roles he has served all season.

After the match, Woods told reporters he felt bad for his players — Tom Kim, Max Homa and Kisner — but expressed optimism that Jupiter could still come back and claim the title. If Jupiter wins Match 2, a third match will take place immediately afterward to determine the TGL champion.

“We have possibly two more matches,” Woods said. “We’re not out of this.”

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Woods didn’t mention the possibility of placing himself in the next day’s lineup. After the news conference, however, TGL posted a graphic on X that showed what appears to be Woods’ torso and the words “He’s back,” along with the viewing information for Tuesday’s match.

Moments later, Jupiter Links posted a graphic on X that featured a photo of Woods and the quote, “I’m back.”

Woods will be replacing Kisner in the lineup for at least Match 2. It is unclear if Woods would take part in a possible third match.

Last week, after Jupiter clinched a spot in the finals, Woods told reporters he has been trying to play all season “but it just hasn’t worked out that way.” He added that the players had done well without him and implied that he didn’t foresee any changes ahead of the finals.

“I really don’t want to screw up the lineup,” Woods added. “I just want these guys to keep playing.”

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The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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John Daly calls himself a ‘jacka–‘ after falling down desert hill during tournament

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John Daly calls himself a ‘jacka–‘ after falling down desert hill during tournament

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Golf great John Daly shared a hilarious moment that may have been more serious after watching a video he posted on social media, calling himself a “jacka–” in the process. 

Daly was in desert terrain at the La Paloma Country Club for the Cologuard Classic, when he was trying to hit a shot onto a green when he lost his footing.

As he tried to gain traction in the sand, Daly’s feet fell from under him, and he slid down a long desert hill. Multiple people got involved, voluntarily jumping down the hill to see if Daly was all right. 

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John Daly of the United States plays a tee shot on the first hole during the second round of the Cologuard Classic 2026 at La Paloma Country Club on March 21, 2026, in Tucson, Arizona. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Daly left unscathed, but he did enjoy putting the theme music to the “Jackass” franchise over the video to share to the masses. 

“Bellyfloppin’ in the desert,” Daly captioned the video, while shouting out his caddie, Joel Cooley, who sprang to action to see if his partner was doing fine at the bottom of the hill. 

“On today’s episode of ‘jacka**’” was also seen on top of the video. 

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While he doesn’t usually show off his bellyflopping, Daly remains a key figure in golf.

John Daly of the United States plays his second shot on the ninth hole during the first round of the Cologuard Classic 2026 at La Paloma Country Club on March 20, 2026, in Tucson, Arizona. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

He spends most of his time on the course for the Champions Tour, which is former PGA Tour players 50 years and older. His most recent round came on Sunday, where he finished tied for 29th with a 6-under tournament in the Cologuard Classic. 

Daly was just named the 2026 Ambassador of Golf Award honoree ahead of the Kaulig Companies Championship at the signature Firestone Country Club in Akron, Ohio. The award recognizes those making an impact on the course as well as in their communities off the course. 

“I’ve always loved this game and what it’s given me,” he said in a press release for the award. “Golf has taken me places I never imagined and introduced me to incredible people along the way. To be recognized with the Ambassador of Golf Award is truly an honor, and I’m proud to support the meaningful work being done here in Northeast Ohio.”

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John Daly hits his tee shot on the second hole during the final round of the PNC Championship 2025 at Ritz-Carlton Golf Club on Dec. 21, 2025 in Orlando, Florida. (Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Daly’s impact on the sport is quite iconic, whether it’s his monstrous drives from the tee box, winning the 1991 PGA Championship as the ninth alternate in the field, or taking home The Open Championship in 1995 at St. Andrews, forever marking himself as a multi-time major winner. 

His larger-than-life personality has always been on display, even today in silly moments like these on and off the course. 

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