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Projecting final 4 NFL playoff teams’ odds to win Super Bowl, with conference title game analysis

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Projecting final 4 NFL playoff teams’ odds to win Super Bowl, with conference title game analysis

The road to the Super Bowl goes through Kansas City. After dispatching the Houston Texans, the Chiefs will play in the AFC Championship Game for a seventh straight year. They’re now just two wins away from the greatest achievement in the Super Bowl era: a three-peat. Standing in their way are the Buffalo Bills, who defeated the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night and now have a chance to dethrone the reigning two-time champions.

In the NFC, the Commanders shocked the world by upsetting the Detroit Lions on Saturday night and will try to repeat the feat next weekend against the Philadelphia Eagles, who took down the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.

Jeff Howe breaks down the conference championship game matchups before The Athletic’s NFL Projection Model, created by Austin Mock, reveals each remaining team’s odds of winning the Super Bowl.

AFC

No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, 1-0 playoffs) vs. No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4, 2-0 playoffs)

The powers of the AFC wouldn’t budge this season, as the Chiefs and Bills will meet on the AFC Championship Game stage for the second time in four years.

The Bills finalized the showdown Sunday evening with a thrilling 27-25 victory against the Baltimore Ravens. Quarterback Josh Allen outdueled fellow MVP candidate Lamar Jackson, as the Bills star finished 16-of-22 for 127 yards with a couple of rushing scores to help ward off Baltimore’s comeback bid.

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The Chiefs were somewhat shaky in their postseason debut, but they knocked off the Texans by a decisive 23-14 margin despite the visitors outpacing them in yards, time of possession, first downs and third-down conversions. That’s because the defense (eight sacks, 14 QB hits) and special teams still carry plenty of weight, and the Chiefs are the most well-balanced team in the field.

The Chiefs, as we mentioned earlier, are on a quest to become the first team in history to win three consecutive Super Bowls. They’ve hoisted the Lombardi Trophy three times since coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes aligned.

It hasn’t been an explosive season for Mahomes, who has more games with fewer than 200 passing yards (five) than over 300 yards (three), including the divisional round. But he hasn’t been making mistakes, accounting for 13 touchdowns (one rushing) since his last interception two months ago.

Mahomes also has 15 touchdowns against just two interceptions (both in a loss to the Cincinnati Bengals) in six AFC Championship Games. In fact, the Chiefs haven’t committed a single turnover over their past eight games. That’ll be a focal point against the Bills, who notched three takeaways Sunday against the Ravens and have forced multiple turnovers in 11 of 19 games this season.

Mahomes hasn’t gotten a lot of help. His offensive tackles have been poor — at least when left guard Joe Thuney isn’t moonlighting at left tackle — and his skill players have been in and out of the lineup with injuries.

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But he still has Travis Kelce, who just ripped off the ninth 100-yard game of his playoff career. The 35-year-old future Pro Football Hall of Famer’s production dipped considerably during the regular season, but Kelce is as clutch as ever in the playoffs. He’s had at least 70 yards in 14 consecutive postseason games — averaging 99.1 yards per outing over that stretch. He also has led the league in receiving touchdowns in four of the past five postseasons.

And yet, the NFL’s modern-day dynasty will be tasked with one question all week: Can they stop Allen?

Allen completed 63.6 percent of his passes during the regular season for 3,731 yards, 28 touchdowns and a career-low six interceptions, and he added 531 rushing yards and a dozen scores.

Allen was 27-of-40 for 262 yards, one touchdown and one interception when the Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21 in Week 11. He added 55 rushing yards, including a 26-yard touchdown on a pivotal fourth-and-2. That was the Chiefs’ only loss this season with Mahomes as the starter, and it might have been the performance that launched Allen’s MVP campaign.

The Chiefs are 6-3 in the AFC Championship during the Super Bowl era, including 4-2 with Mahomes, while the Bills are 4-3. The Chiefs are 4-2 in the playoffs against the Bills, including three consecutive wins over the previous four years.

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• Chiefs’ chances to win Super Bowl: 30.1%
Bills’ chances to win Super Bowl: 25.5%

Chances to win the Super Bowl

Team

  

Odds

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33.5%

30.1%

25.5%

11%

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NFC

No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, 2-0 playoffs) vs. No. 6 Washington Commanders (12-5, 2-0 playoffs)

The NFC North wore the crown all season, but the NFC East is chasing the ring.

The Eagles and Commanders meet in the NFC Championship Game after splitting the regular-season series, with the Commanders claiming a 36-33 home victory in their most recent meeting in Week 16. The Eagles needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Commanders 26-18 in Week 11, so both games were close.

The Eagles may want an asterisk for their loss, as quarterback Jalen Hurts was knocked out early with a concussion, but their 33 points was the sixth-highest output of the season behind a strong Kenny Pickett performance. The far more important story was that the Eagles couldn’t win despite a 5-2 advantage in the turnover battle.

So what happens if the Eagles can’t drum up enough takeaways in the third installment? Maybe that’s also a moot point, as they had a narrow 1-0 edge in takeaways in the earlier win. It’s a rare occasion when turnovers haven’t made the difference in either outcome.

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Still, the Commanders won’t want to test that theory any further. The Eagles have forced 30 turnovers in their last 13 games, including a couple of forced fumbles during a pivotal second-half stretch as they eliminated the Los Angeles Rams 28-22 in the divisional round.

GO DEEPER

The Commanders are a win away from the Super Bowl. Let that marinate for a bit

Daniels has had the Commanders’ offense playing at an elite level during their pair of road victories in the playoffs. They’ve scored on 11 of 16 possessions, excluding sequences to close out halves, and have punted just a single time. They’ve turned it over on downs three times — a risk-reward formula that’s been a net positive — but don’t have any interceptions or lost fumbles. They also have a missed field goal.

Daniels’ command in all situations has been remarkable. While the rookie possesses a clutch gene that’s come in handy during their game-winning drives this season, Daniels did an impressive job Saturday night of keeping the pressure on the top-seeded Lions, leading the Commanders to scores on four of their five possessions following a Detroit score. The exception was a missed field goal, so Daniels continuously kept the ball moving when the Lions were attempting to make a run.

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Daniels will need to be great to get the Commanders to their first Super Bowl in 33 years, and the evidence suggests he’ll rise to that challenge. He passed for 1,522 yards, 17 touchdowns and four interceptions during their seven-game winning streak, and he added 422 yards and a score on the ground. However, three of Daniels’ nine interceptions this season have come against the Eagles.

Hurts and the Eagles passing attack has been pedestrian since his return from a concussion. He had 259 passing yards and two touchdowns in the two playoff wins, although he had 106 yards and a score as a rusher. Wide receivers A.J. Brown (three catches for 24 yards) and DeVonta Smith (eight catches for 76 yards) haven’t made much of an impact as a result.

But fear not, as the Eagles still have running back Saquon Barkley. The best offseason addition in the league had 324 rushing yards and two touchdowns in two playoff games, as he hasn’t slowed down since his torrid regular season.

These teams have one postseason meeting, with Washington taking their wild-card matchup on Jan. 5, 1991. The Commanders are 90-86-6 in the all-time series.

The Commanders are 5-1 in conference championships during the Super Bowl era, while the Eagles are 4-4.

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• Eagles’ chances to win Super Bowl: 33.5%
Commanders’ chances to win Super Bowl: 11%

(Photo of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen: Ryan Kang / Getty Images)

Sports

Trump's inauguration brings out sports world's key figures

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Trump's inauguration brings out sports world's key figures

There were plenty of active and inactive professional athletes who came out in support of Donald Trump as he defeated Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential election.

As Trump’s inauguration as the 47th president of the United States began on Monday, some of those athletes appeared to be in Washington to attend the historic event.

The athletes below braved the frigid temps in D.C. to support the president.

Jake & Logan Paul

Jan. 20, 2025; Washington, D.C.: Jake Paul, left, and Logan Paul, right, seated in the viewing area in Emancipation Hall during the 2025 Presidential Inauguration at the U.S. Capitol. (Jasper Colt-USA TODAY)

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The Paul brothers have been massive supporters of Trump over the last few years. Trump even appeared on Logan Paul’s podcast, “IMPAULSIVE,” back in June while he was on the campaign trail. Jake Paul endorsed Trump for president in late October and celebrated his victory after election day.

“Any American who isn’t in support of Trump after this speech simply hates America and doesn’t want what’s best for this country and the world,” Jake Paul wrote on X.

Conor McGregor

Conor McGregor at the inauguration

Jan. 20, 2025; Washington, D.C. UFC fighter Conor McGregor is seen during inauguration ceremonies in Emancipation Hall at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, on Jan. 19, 2025. (Angelina Katsanis-Pool via Imagn Images)

Jake and Logan Paul were seen in a photo riding a bus over to the inauguration events. Conor McGregor was seen sitting behind both of them. McGregor had been in D.C. the entire weekend and snapped photos meeting with some of Trump’s Cabinet nominees. 

McGregor spoke to reporters on the red carpet at the inaugural ball.

“Amazing to be here. I’m very excited; very optimistic about the future,” McGregor said. “And it’s a good time here in the United States. I was here the last time Donald Trump became president in 2016. And the energy and the response is night and day, which is a testament to how he’s done as a president, his last run, and how he’s handled himself since.”

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Dana White

Dana White at the inauguration

Dana White arrives for the 60th Presidential Inauguration in the Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol in Washington, Monday, Jan. 20, 2025.  (Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post via AP, Pool)

UFC president Dana White was spotted with his wife in the Capitol Rotunda. White had been a big supporter of Trump for years. He spoke at Trump’s rally at the Capital One Arena on Sunday night.

“The people have spoke loud and clear. America wants President Trump back in the White House. Think about this: Winning this election after everything that has happened over the last few years is an amazing achievement and an incredible comeback story,” he said.

“Think of all the things President Trump had to go through to get back here. All the powerful forces that tried to take him down: the mainstream media, partisan prosecutors, assassins. It’s absolutely insane what this man has been through. And only President Trump could have fought through all those obstacles, all the attacks, and still come out the winner.”

Miriam Adelson

Miriam Adelson at the inauguration

Miriam Adelson arrives before the 60th Presidential Inauguration in the Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Monday, Jan. 20, 2025. (Saul Loeb/Pool photo via AP)

Miriam Adelson, the majority owner of the Dallas Mavericks, was in attendance for the inauguration. The Adelson family donated $100 million to her Preserve America political action committee backing Trump’s presidential campaign, according to Front Office Sports. That number is the largest political donation of any owner in the NBA, NFL, MLB or WNBA. 

She bought a majority interest in the Mavericks from Mark Cuban back in December 2023.

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Wayne Gretzky

Janet Jones in a cream jacket stands beside husband Wayne Gretzky in the Capitol

Former NHL great Wayne Gretzky and his wife Janet Jones arrive in the Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol ahead of the inauguration.  (Kevin Lamarque/Pool Photo via AP)

NHL legend Wayne Gretzky was spotted at the inauguration tucked away near White and Adelson before the festivities started.

The former Edmonton Oilers, Los Angeles Kings and New York Rangers superstar’s appearance came as Trump has touted the hockey legend as the next leader of Canada. On Christmas Day, Trump urged Canadian citizens to encourage Gretzky to become the next prime minister.

Trump said he even talked to Gretzky about becoming the “governor of Canada” as the country faced teasing about it becoming a part of the U.S.

Follow Fox News Digital’s sports coverage on X, and subscribe to the Fox News Sports Huddle newsletter.

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Prep talk: The next generation of Clausen quarterbacks has arrived

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Prep talk: The next generation of Clausen quarterbacks has arrived

It was Friday night for brothers Casey and Jimmy Clausen, so why not have their second-grade sons begin playing flag football and introduce the next generation of Clausen quarterbacks.

Casey Jr. and Jett had their first flag football games. The fathers were there to help with questions, suggestions and smiles.

Casey was a standout quarterback at Bishop Alemany, then Tennessee. Jimmy went to Oaks Christian, Notre Dame and the NFL. If the boys need an impartial observer, they can always ask their uncle Rick, another former quarterback.

Rick is the new head coach at Westlake, where Casey will serve as an assistant. Get ready for more Clausens throwing footballs in the future. …

St. John Bosco is set to play host to JSerra on Monday night in a big Trinity League basketball game. …

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Brandon Benjamin of Anaheim Canyon became his school’s all-time basketball scoring leader after his 40-point performance on Saturday against Inglewood. …

This is a daily look at the positive happenings in high school sports. To submit any news, please email eric.sondheimer@latimes.com.

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Eagles ride Saquon Barkley, defense to NFC Championship Game in win vs. Rams: Key takeaways

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Eagles ride Saquon Barkley, defense to NFC Championship Game in win vs. Rams: Key takeaways

The Philadelphia Eagles advanced to the conference championship game for the second time in the last three seasons after a snowy 28-22 win over the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.

Lincoln Financial Field was covered in snow in the second half of the tightly contested NFC divisional matchup, but Philadelphia’s usual strengths — its No. 1-ranked defense (by yards allowed) and its Saquon Barkley-led rushing attack — were the difference yet again. That was especially key after quarterback Jalen Hurts was hampered by a left knee injury sustained while absorbing a sack late in the third quarter.

In addition to a pair of long touchdown runs, Barkley’s 205 rushing yards were good for the fifth-best postseason rushing total in NFL history, a fitting follow-up to his 302-yard performance during the two teams’ Week 12 meeting.

Philly now turns its attention to Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders with a Super Bowl appearance on the line when they play next Sunday. The NFC East rivals split their 2024 season series. They have met only one other time in the postseason, a 20-6 wild-card win by Washington in January 1991.

Defense continues its dominance

The Eagles’ defense gave Philadelphia chances to put the Rams away early. It forced two first-half field goals while backed up in the red zone. On the first instance, C.J. Gardner-Johnson supplied a major tackle for loss, following the motion on the play into the backfield. In the fourth quarter, Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith forced fumbles that gave the Eagles the ball in Rams territory. Both turnovers only resulted in field goals.

The Eagles forced a three-and-out with 4:47 left in the game, and Barkley immediately rushed for a 78-yard touchdown to threaten to put the game away. But the Eagles’ defense subsequently gave up a 10-play touchdown drive, which, followed by a three-and-out by the Eagles’ offense, forced Philly to defend the field one last time. They did. A turnover on downs deep in Eagles territory ended the game. — Brooks Kubena, Eagles staff writer

Ailing Hurts not playing at his highest level

Hurts, who finished with 128 passing yards Sunday, has now twice thrown for under 200 yards in the playoffs. Nick Sirianni has defended his franchise quarterback throughout the season, sermonizing different variations of “Jalen is a winner.” Indeed, Hurts fulfills a different role in this offense this season. He is more conservative in the pocket, leveraging Barkley and a top-rated defense on the way to more physical victories.

It’s fair to say Hurts was conservative last week against the Green Bay Packers. His play against the Rams on Sunday was poor. He took far too many sacks in consequential situations, including a safety that allowed the Rams to crawl to within one point, 16-15. He missed open receivers on multiple plays.

A.J. Brown had his own blunders, dropping two passes, including a deep ball near the pylon. The Eagles simply need better play from Hurts to fully take advantage of the opportunities their defense is supplying them. — Kubena

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Eagles still waiting for offense to click

The Eagles failed to fully capitalize on offensive opportunities, and it nearly cost them. They built a 13-7 first-quarter lead on a 44-yard touchdown run by Hurts and a 62-yard touchdown run by Barkley. They were disjointed for most of the rest of the game. Hurts was sacked six times — three times in the final two possessions of the first half, in which the Eagles punted twice in Rams territory. Brown also dropped the well-placed pass from Hurts near the pylon in that stretch.

In the second half, the Eagles failed to score touchdowns off two defensive turnovers in Rams territory. Most inexcusable: Lane Johnson was flagged for a false start, wiping out a Brotherly Shove touchdown on fourth-and-goal at the 1. Jake Elliott, who struggled for stretches of this season, came through for the Eagles when it mattered most. He made all three of his field goal attempts on a field blanketed in snow.

This is the second straight week the Eagles offense has needed the defense to bail it out and give Hurts and company time to put the game on ice. Can the Eagles advance to the Super Bowl that way next week, hosting the Commanders in the NFC Championship Game? — Kubena

Required reading

(Photo: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)

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