Sports
Projecting final 4 NFL playoff teams’ odds to win Super Bowl, with conference title game analysis
The road to the Super Bowl goes through Kansas City. After dispatching the Houston Texans, the Chiefs will play in the AFC Championship Game for a seventh straight year. They’re now just two wins away from the greatest achievement in the Super Bowl era: a three-peat. Standing in their way are the Buffalo Bills, who defeated the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night and now have a chance to dethrone the reigning two-time champions.
In the NFC, the Commanders shocked the world by upsetting the Detroit Lions on Saturday night and will try to repeat the feat next weekend against the Philadelphia Eagles, who took down the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.
Jeff Howe breaks down the conference championship game matchups before The Athletic’s NFL Projection Model, created by Austin Mock, reveals each remaining team’s odds of winning the Super Bowl.
AFC
No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, 1-0 playoffs) vs. No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4, 2-0 playoffs)
The powers of the AFC wouldn’t budge this season, as the Chiefs and Bills will meet on the AFC Championship Game stage for the second time in four years.
The Bills finalized the showdown Sunday evening with a thrilling 27-25 victory against the Baltimore Ravens. Quarterback Josh Allen outdueled fellow MVP candidate Lamar Jackson, as the Bills star finished 16-of-22 for 127 yards with a couple of rushing scores to help ward off Baltimore’s comeback bid.
The Chiefs were somewhat shaky in their postseason debut, but they knocked off the Texans by a decisive 23-14 margin despite the visitors outpacing them in yards, time of possession, first downs and third-down conversions. That’s because the defense (eight sacks, 14 QB hits) and special teams still carry plenty of weight, and the Chiefs are the most well-balanced team in the field.
The Chiefs, as we mentioned earlier, are on a quest to become the first team in history to win three consecutive Super Bowls. They’ve hoisted the Lombardi Trophy three times since coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes aligned.
It hasn’t been an explosive season for Mahomes, who has more games with fewer than 200 passing yards (five) than over 300 yards (three), including the divisional round. But he hasn’t been making mistakes, accounting for 13 touchdowns (one rushing) since his last interception two months ago.
Mahomes also has 15 touchdowns against just two interceptions (both in a loss to the Cincinnati Bengals) in six AFC Championship Games. In fact, the Chiefs haven’t committed a single turnover over their past eight games. That’ll be a focal point against the Bills, who notched three takeaways Sunday against the Ravens and have forced multiple turnovers in 11 of 19 games this season.
Mahomes hasn’t gotten a lot of help. His offensive tackles have been poor — at least when left guard Joe Thuney isn’t moonlighting at left tackle — and his skill players have been in and out of the lineup with injuries.
But he still has Travis Kelce, who just ripped off the ninth 100-yard game of his playoff career. The 35-year-old future Pro Football Hall of Famer’s production dipped considerably during the regular season, but Kelce is as clutch as ever in the playoffs. He’s had at least 70 yards in 14 consecutive postseason games — averaging 99.1 yards per outing over that stretch. He also has led the league in receiving touchdowns in four of the past five postseasons.
And yet, the NFL’s modern-day dynasty will be tasked with one question all week: Can they stop Allen?
Allen completed 63.6 percent of his passes during the regular season for 3,731 yards, 28 touchdowns and a career-low six interceptions, and he added 531 rushing yards and a dozen scores.
Allen was 27-of-40 for 262 yards, one touchdown and one interception when the Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21 in Week 11. He added 55 rushing yards, including a 26-yard touchdown on a pivotal fourth-and-2. That was the Chiefs’ only loss this season with Mahomes as the starter, and it might have been the performance that launched Allen’s MVP campaign.
The Chiefs are 6-3 in the AFC Championship during the Super Bowl era, including 4-2 with Mahomes, while the Bills are 4-3. The Chiefs are 4-2 in the playoffs against the Bills, including three consecutive wins over the previous four years.
• Chiefs’ chances to win Super Bowl: 30.1%
• Bills’ chances to win Super Bowl: 25.5%
Chances to win the Super Bowl
|
Team
|
Odds
|
|---|---|
|
33.5% |
|
|
30.1% |
|
|
25.5% |
|
|
11% |
NFC
No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, 2-0 playoffs) vs. No. 6 Washington Commanders (12-5, 2-0 playoffs)
The NFC North wore the crown all season, but the NFC East is chasing the ring.
The Eagles and Commanders meet in the NFC Championship Game after splitting the regular-season series, with the Commanders claiming a 36-33 home victory in their most recent meeting in Week 16. The Eagles needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Commanders 26-18 in Week 11, so both games were close.
The Eagles may want an asterisk for their loss, as quarterback Jalen Hurts was knocked out early with a concussion, but their 33 points was the sixth-highest output of the season behind a strong Kenny Pickett performance. The far more important story was that the Eagles couldn’t win despite a 5-2 advantage in the turnover battle.
So what happens if the Eagles can’t drum up enough takeaways in the third installment? Maybe that’s also a moot point, as they had a narrow 1-0 edge in takeaways in the earlier win. It’s a rare occasion when turnovers haven’t made the difference in either outcome.
Still, the Commanders won’t want to test that theory any further. The Eagles have forced 30 turnovers in their last 13 games, including a couple of forced fumbles during a pivotal second-half stretch as they eliminated the Los Angeles Rams 28-22 in the divisional round.
GO DEEPER
The Commanders are a win away from the Super Bowl. Let that marinate for a bit
Daniels has had the Commanders’ offense playing at an elite level during their pair of road victories in the playoffs. They’ve scored on 11 of 16 possessions, excluding sequences to close out halves, and have punted just a single time. They’ve turned it over on downs three times — a risk-reward formula that’s been a net positive — but don’t have any interceptions or lost fumbles. They also have a missed field goal.
Daniels’ command in all situations has been remarkable. While the rookie possesses a clutch gene that’s come in handy during their game-winning drives this season, Daniels did an impressive job Saturday night of keeping the pressure on the top-seeded Lions, leading the Commanders to scores on four of their five possessions following a Detroit score. The exception was a missed field goal, so Daniels continuously kept the ball moving when the Lions were attempting to make a run.
Daniels will need to be great to get the Commanders to their first Super Bowl in 33 years, and the evidence suggests he’ll rise to that challenge. He passed for 1,522 yards, 17 touchdowns and four interceptions during their seven-game winning streak, and he added 422 yards and a score on the ground. However, three of Daniels’ nine interceptions this season have come against the Eagles.
Hurts and the Eagles passing attack has been pedestrian since his return from a concussion. He had 259 passing yards and two touchdowns in the two playoff wins, although he had 106 yards and a score as a rusher. Wide receivers A.J. Brown (three catches for 24 yards) and DeVonta Smith (eight catches for 76 yards) haven’t made much of an impact as a result.
But fear not, as the Eagles still have running back Saquon Barkley. The best offseason addition in the league had 324 rushing yards and two touchdowns in two playoff games, as he hasn’t slowed down since his torrid regular season.
These teams have one postseason meeting, with Washington taking their wild-card matchup on Jan. 5, 1991. The Commanders are 90-86-6 in the all-time series.
The Commanders are 5-1 in conference championships during the Super Bowl era, while the Eagles are 4-4.
• Eagles’ chances to win Super Bowl: 33.5%
• Commanders’ chances to win Super Bowl: 11%
(Photo of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen: Ryan Kang / Getty Images)
Sports
Patriots crush Chargers in Wild Card defensive slugfest, secure first playoff win since 2018
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The New England Patriots defended home turf in the Wild Card Round, dominating the Los Angeles Chargers in a 16-3 victory to move on in the NFL Playoffs.
New England, winning its first playoff game since their 2018 Super Bowl-winning campaign, will await the victor of the No. 4 Houston Texans and No. 5 Pittsburgh Steelers Wild Card game on Monday night to see who they face in the Divisional Round next week.
This game saw its first touchdown in the fourth quarter, but that was because of how suffocating both defenses were in this contest. But it was clear the Patriots had every answer for Justin Herbert and the Chargers’ offense.
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Drake Maye of the New England Patriots celebrates after a touchdown in the third quarter against the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium on January 04, 2026 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
Mike Vrabel’s squad shouldn’t have given up only three points, especially after Drake Maye was picked off on the Patriots’ second drive at his own 10-yard line. However, the Patriots’ defense was relentless all night, and the Chargers couldn’t adjust.
They stopped the Chargers on four plays to turn them over on downs, and ultimately got on the board first thanks to a 93-yard drive that resulted in a field goal.
49ERS ELMINATE DEFENDING SUPER BOWL CHAMPION EAGLES FROM PLAYOFFS
Los Angeles was knocking at the door again with a third-and-2 from New England’s three-yard line, but Kimani Vidal was stuffed. Cameron Dicker added a field goal to tie the game, and only another Patriots field goal was added to the score before halftime, a 6-3 lead for New England.
While the Chargers couldn’t get anything going on offense, their defense kept them in this game, at least for the first three quarters. Maye was strip-sacked by Odafe Oweh while in Chargers territory to keep it a three-point game in the third quarter.
But after another failed drive, a third Patriots field goal split the uprights to make it 9-3.
Stefon Diggs of the New England Patriots talks to teammates in a huddle prior to an AFC wild card playoff football game against the Los Angeles Chargers at Gillette Stadium on Jan. 11, 2026 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)
The dagger for the Patriots came after yet another Chargers punt, when Maye placed his pass perfectly for tight end Hunter Henry, the ex-Chargers star, for a 28-yard touchdown. The first six-pointer for either team seemingly ended all hopes for Los Angeles.
On the ensuing drive, Herbert was crushed by K’Lavon Chaisson, resulting in a fumble recovered by Christian Elliss, as the Gillette Stadium crowd went ballistic.
The Chargers tried to get some playoff heroics going, as they dinked and dunked their way down the field into Patriots territory. But on fourth-and-9 from New England’s 34-yard line, Milton Williams ended all hope when he delivered the Patriots’ sixth sack on Herbert to turn them over on downs again.
In the box score, Maye went 17-of-29 through the air for 268 yards, with running back Rhamondre Stevenson being his top receiver with 75 yards on three catches. Kayshon Boutte also added 66 yards on four grabs, while Henry finished with 64 yards.
Drake Maye of the New England Patriots looks to pass prior to an NFL wild card playoff game against the Los Angeles Chargers at Gillette Stadium on Jan. 11, 2026 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Michael Owens/Getty Images)
And Maye was also the Patriots’ leading rusher with 67 yards on the ground on nine carries, as he continuously picked his spots to gash the Chargers’ defense.
For Los Angeles, Herbert’s playoff woes continue, as he’s now 0-3 after this performance. He had just 159 yards passing and 57 yards rushing.
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Sports
It’s another one-and-done postseason for Justin Herbert and Chargers
FOXBOROUGH, Mass. — The MVP chants for the second-year quarterback of the New England Patriots rang throughout Gillette Stadium on Sunday night.
The Chargers, meanwhile, were haunted by their own echoes.
Another playoff game. Another one-and-done exit.
The gutty season of quarterback Justin Herbert again ended with a whimper, a 16-3 loss on a night when the Chargers defense provided ample opportunities.
“We have to do better than three points,” Herbert said. “As an offense, that’s not good enough. The quarterback play wasn’t good enough, and we let the defense down today.”
Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is sacked by New England Patriots linebacker Anfernee Jennings in the fourth quarter Sunday.
(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)
Three years ago was the nuclear meltdown at Jacksonville, when the Chargers blew a 27-0 lead to lose, 31-30.
Last year, the first under coach Jim Harbaugh, Herbert was picked off four times at Houston after making it through the regular season with just three interceptions.
Now, the Chargers have all offseason to ponder the fiasco at Foxborough, when they generated one field goal, 207 yards and converted one of 10 third downs.
The cover-your-eyes postseason scorecard under Harbaugh: Two games, 15 points on three field goals, one touchdown and a failed conversion.
Asked after the New England loss if the impending offseason changes could include changing out offensive coordinator Greg Roman, Harbaugh was notably noncommittal.
“Right now I don’t have the answers,” Harbaugh said. “We’re going to look at that.”
The juxtaposition between the Chargers and Patriots is stark. The Chargers are precisely where they were a year ago, groping for answers about how to win a postseason game.
The Patriots won just four games last season but bumped that to 14 this year — one of three teams in NFL history to improve by at least 10 games in 12 months — and now advance to play host to Monday night’s winner between Houston and Pittsburgh.
As good as Herbert was all season — particularly playing behind a patchwork offensive line and with a broken left hand — he seemed lost in space Sunday, unable to connect with his receivers or establish anything close to an offensive rhythm.
Former Chargers tight end Hunter Henry catches a touchdown pass in the fourth quarter for the Patriots. It was the game’s only touchdown.
(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)
He threw for 120 yards and oversaw an offense whose possessions ended thusly: punt, turnover on downs, field goal, punt, end of half, punt, punt, punt, fumble, turnover on downs.
It’s not as if the Patriots were much better. The Chargers largely shut them down on offense, but New England was able to cobble together three field goals and a touchdown by tight end Hunter Henry, who, in a tormenting twist, began his career with the Chargers.
But Patriots quarterback Drake Maye was more calm and in command than Herbert despite two fumbles (one lost) and an interception on a pass that was batted at the line of scrimmage.
“Credit to Drake Maye,” Chargers safety Derwin James Jr. said. “Every time we got to him, he got back up. Every time his team needed a play today, he used his legs.”
In fact, the quarterbacks were the leading rushers, with Maye running for 66 yards and Herbert 57. The Patriots got 53 more from Rhamondre Stevenson, whereas the Chargers couldn’t mount anything of a true running game.
When teams win, they spend the offseason trying to keep their rosters together. When they lose, it’s back to the drawing board. The Chargers are in the latter category.
In a locker room so quiet you could hear a dream drop, linebacker Daiyan Henley said Harbaugh thanked his players after the game.
Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is slow to get up after being sacked in the fourth quarter against the Patriots on Sunday.
(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)
“There was a lot of confidence going into this game,” Henley said. “I think the feeling and vibe you’re getting in this locker room right now is that it’s over and that this team is going to change. Everybody is aware that our defense is going to surely change.
“When you have a core group of guys like this, everybody holds a lot of pride in what we do. So to know that we lost and the season is over and this locker room is going to change — and upstairs may change — it hurts more.”
Henley said Harbaugh thanked his players after the game, especially for the way they fought all season despite the various hurdles in their path.
“It sucks because this is how the season ends, so when you talk about processing a loss like this, the process lasts longer,” Henley said.
“You go out on a loss, I’ll be thinking about it until I can go out and get my next win.”
Sports
Packers’ head-coaching situation thrust into spotlight after playoff loss
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The Green Bay Packers’ playoff exit on Saturday immediately put added focus on what the organization will do with head coach Matt LaFleur.
The NFL coaching cycle has been the wildest in recent memory, with veteran coaches like John Harbaugh and Pete Carroll being shown the door. Packers fans seemingly put LaFleur on the hot seat following their crushing defeat to the Chicago Bears.
Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur reacts during the wild-card playoff game against the Bears Saturday, Jan. 10, 2026, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Erin Hooley)
ESPN’s Adam Schefter said Sunday that the Packers will have a major decision to make.
“The Green Bay Packers and their new president, Ed Policy, have a significant decision to make here in the coming days – and that is whether to extend Matt LaFleur’s contract. He’s currently got one year remaining, or to move on from him,” Schefter said. “If they moved on from him, he would automatically go near the top of coaches available and shakeup this current head-coaching cycle yet again.”
Schefter added that Harbaugh could be one of the names that would interest the Packers’ organization.
BEARS’ BEN JOHNSON GIVES FIERY MESSAGE TO TEAM AFTER PLAYOFF WIN: ‘F— THE PACKERS!’
Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur talks after the playoff game, Saturday, Jan. 10, 2026, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Erin Hooley)
“Notice how we said this belongs to the Packers’ president, Ed Policy. Well, the Packers’ former president from the back in the day was a man by the name of Bob Harlan,” Schefter explained. “Bob Harlan’s son, Brian Harlan, represents John Harbaugh. John Harbaugh is a Midwestern guy, who has a home in the Upper Peninsula, and a lot of people around the league have been wondering if the Packers decide to go in a different direction, if all of a sudden the Green Bay Packers might fall to the top of John Harbaugh’s list as the top available choice for him.
“This has been a wild, crazy coaching cycle, and we may be just scratching the surface.”
Green Bay Packers’ Matthew Golden celebrates his touchdown against the Bears Saturday, Jan. 10, 2026, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Erin Hooley)
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Green Bay finished 9-7-1 this season. LaFleur is 76-40-1 as the Packers’ head coach with a 3-6 record in the playoffs.
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