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Projecting final 4 NFL playoff teams’ odds to win Super Bowl, with conference title game analysis

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Projecting final 4 NFL playoff teams’ odds to win Super Bowl, with conference title game analysis

The road to the Super Bowl goes through Kansas City. After dispatching the Houston Texans, the Chiefs will play in the AFC Championship Game for a seventh straight year. They’re now just two wins away from the greatest achievement in the Super Bowl era: a three-peat. Standing in their way are the Buffalo Bills, who defeated the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night and now have a chance to dethrone the reigning two-time champions.

In the NFC, the Commanders shocked the world by upsetting the Detroit Lions on Saturday night and will try to repeat the feat next weekend against the Philadelphia Eagles, who took down the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.

Jeff Howe breaks down the conference championship game matchups before The Athletic’s NFL Projection Model, created by Austin Mock, reveals each remaining team’s odds of winning the Super Bowl.

AFC

No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, 1-0 playoffs) vs. No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4, 2-0 playoffs)

The powers of the AFC wouldn’t budge this season, as the Chiefs and Bills will meet on the AFC Championship Game stage for the second time in four years.

The Bills finalized the showdown Sunday evening with a thrilling 27-25 victory against the Baltimore Ravens. Quarterback Josh Allen outdueled fellow MVP candidate Lamar Jackson, as the Bills star finished 16-of-22 for 127 yards with a couple of rushing scores to help ward off Baltimore’s comeback bid.

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The Chiefs were somewhat shaky in their postseason debut, but they knocked off the Texans by a decisive 23-14 margin despite the visitors outpacing them in yards, time of possession, first downs and third-down conversions. That’s because the defense (eight sacks, 14 QB hits) and special teams still carry plenty of weight, and the Chiefs are the most well-balanced team in the field.

The Chiefs, as we mentioned earlier, are on a quest to become the first team in history to win three consecutive Super Bowls. They’ve hoisted the Lombardi Trophy three times since coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes aligned.

It hasn’t been an explosive season for Mahomes, who has more games with fewer than 200 passing yards (five) than over 300 yards (three), including the divisional round. But he hasn’t been making mistakes, accounting for 13 touchdowns (one rushing) since his last interception two months ago.

Mahomes also has 15 touchdowns against just two interceptions (both in a loss to the Cincinnati Bengals) in six AFC Championship Games. In fact, the Chiefs haven’t committed a single turnover over their past eight games. That’ll be a focal point against the Bills, who notched three takeaways Sunday against the Ravens and have forced multiple turnovers in 11 of 19 games this season.

Mahomes hasn’t gotten a lot of help. His offensive tackles have been poor — at least when left guard Joe Thuney isn’t moonlighting at left tackle — and his skill players have been in and out of the lineup with injuries.

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But he still has Travis Kelce, who just ripped off the ninth 100-yard game of his playoff career. The 35-year-old future Pro Football Hall of Famer’s production dipped considerably during the regular season, but Kelce is as clutch as ever in the playoffs. He’s had at least 70 yards in 14 consecutive postseason games — averaging 99.1 yards per outing over that stretch. He also has led the league in receiving touchdowns in four of the past five postseasons.

And yet, the NFL’s modern-day dynasty will be tasked with one question all week: Can they stop Allen?

Allen completed 63.6 percent of his passes during the regular season for 3,731 yards, 28 touchdowns and a career-low six interceptions, and he added 531 rushing yards and a dozen scores.

Allen was 27-of-40 for 262 yards, one touchdown and one interception when the Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21 in Week 11. He added 55 rushing yards, including a 26-yard touchdown on a pivotal fourth-and-2. That was the Chiefs’ only loss this season with Mahomes as the starter, and it might have been the performance that launched Allen’s MVP campaign.

The Chiefs are 6-3 in the AFC Championship during the Super Bowl era, including 4-2 with Mahomes, while the Bills are 4-3. The Chiefs are 4-2 in the playoffs against the Bills, including three consecutive wins over the previous four years.

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• Chiefs’ chances to win Super Bowl: 30.1%
Bills’ chances to win Super Bowl: 25.5%

Chances to win the Super Bowl

Team

  

Odds

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33.5%

30.1%

25.5%

11%

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NFC

No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, 2-0 playoffs) vs. No. 6 Washington Commanders (12-5, 2-0 playoffs)

The NFC North wore the crown all season, but the NFC East is chasing the ring.

The Eagles and Commanders meet in the NFC Championship Game after splitting the regular-season series, with the Commanders claiming a 36-33 home victory in their most recent meeting in Week 16. The Eagles needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Commanders 26-18 in Week 11, so both games were close.

The Eagles may want an asterisk for their loss, as quarterback Jalen Hurts was knocked out early with a concussion, but their 33 points was the sixth-highest output of the season behind a strong Kenny Pickett performance. The far more important story was that the Eagles couldn’t win despite a 5-2 advantage in the turnover battle.

So what happens if the Eagles can’t drum up enough takeaways in the third installment? Maybe that’s also a moot point, as they had a narrow 1-0 edge in takeaways in the earlier win. It’s a rare occasion when turnovers haven’t made the difference in either outcome.

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Still, the Commanders won’t want to test that theory any further. The Eagles have forced 30 turnovers in their last 13 games, including a couple of forced fumbles during a pivotal second-half stretch as they eliminated the Los Angeles Rams 28-22 in the divisional round.

GO DEEPER

The Commanders are a win away from the Super Bowl. Let that marinate for a bit

Daniels has had the Commanders’ offense playing at an elite level during their pair of road victories in the playoffs. They’ve scored on 11 of 16 possessions, excluding sequences to close out halves, and have punted just a single time. They’ve turned it over on downs three times — a risk-reward formula that’s been a net positive — but don’t have any interceptions or lost fumbles. They also have a missed field goal.

Daniels’ command in all situations has been remarkable. While the rookie possesses a clutch gene that’s come in handy during their game-winning drives this season, Daniels did an impressive job Saturday night of keeping the pressure on the top-seeded Lions, leading the Commanders to scores on four of their five possessions following a Detroit score. The exception was a missed field goal, so Daniels continuously kept the ball moving when the Lions were attempting to make a run.

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Daniels will need to be great to get the Commanders to their first Super Bowl in 33 years, and the evidence suggests he’ll rise to that challenge. He passed for 1,522 yards, 17 touchdowns and four interceptions during their seven-game winning streak, and he added 422 yards and a score on the ground. However, three of Daniels’ nine interceptions this season have come against the Eagles.

Hurts and the Eagles passing attack has been pedestrian since his return from a concussion. He had 259 passing yards and two touchdowns in the two playoff wins, although he had 106 yards and a score as a rusher. Wide receivers A.J. Brown (three catches for 24 yards) and DeVonta Smith (eight catches for 76 yards) haven’t made much of an impact as a result.

But fear not, as the Eagles still have running back Saquon Barkley. The best offseason addition in the league had 324 rushing yards and two touchdowns in two playoff games, as he hasn’t slowed down since his torrid regular season.

These teams have one postseason meeting, with Washington taking their wild-card matchup on Jan. 5, 1991. The Commanders are 90-86-6 in the all-time series.

The Commanders are 5-1 in conference championships during the Super Bowl era, while the Eagles are 4-4.

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• Eagles’ chances to win Super Bowl: 33.5%
Commanders’ chances to win Super Bowl: 11%

(Photo of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen: Ryan Kang / Getty Images)

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Navy tops Army with late touchdown as Trump’s attendance in Baltimore sparks protests

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Navy tops Army with late touchdown as Trump’s attendance in Baltimore sparks protests

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For the second year in a row, the Navy Midshipmen have won the Commander-in-Chief Trophy.

The Midshipmen earned a gutsy 17-16 victory over Army in one of the greatest rivalries in sports.

Navy got out to a scorching-hot start, as they scored a touchdown on their first drive, with Blake Horvath rushing for 45 of the 75 yards on the drive and running in for the score. He also had an 11-yard pass.

 

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President Donald Trump greets players after the coin toss and before the start of the 126th Army-Navy Game between the Army Black Knights and the Navy Midshipmen at M&T Bank Stadium, Saturday, in Baltimore, Md. (Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images)

Army, though, answered right back with an identical drive, going 13 plays for 75 yards — this one ended with Cale Hellums punching one in.

Navy’s offense was stalled for a long while after, as their next three drives ended in a punt, fumble, and interception. In the meantime, the Black Knights were able to tack on three more field goals to go up, 16-7. Late in the third, the Midshipmen finally added more points on the scoreboard with a field goal that cut their deficit to three.

Early in the fourth, Navy forced an Army interception. Navy had the ball at the goal line but fumbled on a quarterback sneak, losing seven yards. Horvath hit Eli Heidenrich in the end zone, though, and the ensuing kick gave the Midshipmen their first lead since the first drive of the game. 

Navy promptly forced a three-and-out and got the ball back with less than five minutes to go. Navy lost a fumble when trying for a first down that would have iced the game, but the play was reviewed, and the call was reversed. Thus, Navy had a fourth-and-1 and kept the offense on the field. They got the first down that iced the game.

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US President Donald Trump tosses a coin before the college football game between the US Army and Navy in Baltimore, Maryland, on December 13, 2025.  (Photo by Alex Wroblewski / AFP via Getty Images)

CHICAGO RADIO HOST RIPS CUBS PLAYER FOR TURNING POINT EVENT ATTENDANCE, LIKENS IT TO ‘NAZI-ADJACENT PEP RALLY’

With the win, Navy earned the Commander-in-Chief trophy by also defeating Air Force earlier in the year.

The game was its usual old-school ground-and-pound style of football, as there were only 24 pass attempts compared to 86 runs.

President Donald Trump attended the game for the seventh time, and his second in as many years since being elected again. Trump participated in the coin flip, but not before protesters wielded lewd signs opposing Trump on the street leading up to the stadium. 

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Protests were expected for the game in the blue city, as Trump has suggested sending the National Guard to Baltimore to help address the city’s rampant crime. Baltimore consistently ranks among U.S. cities with high crime rates, often appearing in the top 5 for violent crimes, especially homicides and robberies. 

U.S. President Donald Trump (2nd-L) walks onto the field for the 126th Army-Navy Game between the Army Black Knights and the Navy Midshipmen on Dec. 13, 2025 in Baltimore, Maryland. The teams are competing for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy, with President Trump attending the rivalry for the second consecutive year.  (Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images)

The protests against Trump also come on the same day that officials said two U.S. Army soldiers and a U.S. interpreter were killed in an ambush attack in Syria. 

Fox News’ Jackson Thompson contributed to this report.

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Jarred Vanderbilt hoping for an opportunity to help Lakers on defense

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Jarred Vanderbilt hoping for an opportunity to help Lakers on defense

Perhaps Jarred Vanderbilt and his ability to defend can help the Lakers and their reeling defense.

Perhaps Vanderbilt can return to the rotation to help the Lakers’ defensive woes while guard Austin Reaves is out for approximately a week because of a mild left calf strain.

And perhaps Vanderbilt and the Lakers can get some immediate results for shoring up their defensive shortcomings when they face the Suns in Phoenix on Sunday afternoon.

The 6-foot-8 Vanderbilt is hopeful that his opportunity will come against the Suns and he turns that into a positive for the Lakers.

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“Oh, yeah, I’m pretty eager,” he said after practice Saturday. “I mean, obviously, I think a lot of the stuff we lack, I think I can help provide on that end.”

In the last 10 games, Vanderbilt had only a three-minute stint against the Philadelphia 76ers because Jake LaRavia took a shot to the face that loosened a tooth.

The return of LeBron James and Vanderbilt’s offensive deficiencies left him out of the rotation. During much of that time the Lakers were winning, which meant Vanderbilt spent time on the bench.

In 15 games, Vanderbilt is three for 10 (26.6%) from three-point range. He was asked how he has been handling things.

“Good,” Vanderbilt said. “Controlling what I can control. Keep showing up to work, doing my part, supporting the team.”

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Vanderbilt was asked if coach JJ Redick or any assistants have spoken to him about his role.

“Kind of here and there, I guess,” Vanderbilt said.

Vanderbilt was seen after practice Saturday working with an assistant coach on his shooting, just like he did after practice Friday and like he has done while not playing.

Redick said Reaves, who played against the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday night, wasn’t sure when the calf became an issue, and “we’re obviously gonna be cautious with it.”

“It’s a mild strain, Grade 1, and he’ll be out for a week,” Redick said, adding, “I would venture to say every player is a little bit different, but players now are becoming more cautious — to use that word again — more cautious when they get those diagnosis with the calf. Everything looks clean. It’s not in the deep part.”

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The Lakers have looked at the last 10 games during the film sessions as a barometer for their defensive problems. But in reality, the Lakers have not been very good on defense all season while producing a 17-7 record because of their stellar offense.

“It’s been a trending thing even when we was winning, so I think like you said, the defense still wasn’t there, but we was just outscoring everybody,” Vanderbilt said. “So, I think obviously during the loss, it’s an appropriate time to address certain things just so it won’t keep lingering and get worse.”

The Lakers are 18th in the NBA in points given up (116.8), 22nd in opponents’ field-goal percentage (48.1%) and 27th in opponents’ three-point shooting (38.2%).

They will face a Suns team that defeated them Dec. 1 at Crypto.com Arena. The Lakers were unable to stop Collin Gillesipie, who had 28 points and was eight for 14 from three-point range, and Dillon Brooks, who had 33 points.

It hasn’t gotten better in the ensuing days. The Spurs loss was the Lakers’ third in the last five games.

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“Nobody likes to go watch film after you get your ass kicked,” guard Marcus Smart said. “It’s tough because the film never lies. And it exposed us a lot, which we already knew. We were just winning a lot of games. So it was mitigated that way, but it was straight to it: We have to be able to guard.

“The scouting report against us is we’re not guarding people. And if we want to be great in this league and do what we’re trying to do, you have to be able to guard, especially in the West. These guys are no joke, and they’re coming. And especially [if] you got the Lakers across your jersey. They’re definitely coming with everything they have. So you can’t be expecting any surprises. And that’s what it was. It wasn’t no sugarcoating anything. It was, ‘This is what we got to do.’ We’ve been asked. Let’s fix it.”

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Michigan football staffer who had alleged affair with Sherrone Moore still employed by university

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Michigan football staffer who had alleged affair with Sherrone Moore still employed by university

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The football staffer who allegedly had a romantic relationship with fired head coach Sherrone Moore is still employed by the University of Michigan.

The woman has served as Moore’s executive assistant. 

“There is no change in her employment status,” a Michigan spokesperson told Fox News. 

The woman received a massive pay bump between 2024 and 2025.

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Former Michigan football coach Sherrone Moore appears via video in court in Ann Arbor, Mich., Dec. 12, 2025. (Ryan Sun/AP Photo)

The individual allegedly linked to Moore, whose LinkedIn profile lists her as an executive assistant to the head football coach at the University of Michigan, made just over $58,000 in 2023 and 2024, according to public payroll information. In the 2025 fiscal year, though, her salary jumped to $99,000, according to a salary disclosure report from the University of Michigan.

During Moore’s arraignment Friday, prosecutors alleged he and the staffer had been in an “intimate relationship for a number of years,” which they say the woman ended on Monday. Prosecutors further claim Moore sent multiple text messages and made phone calls that prompted the woman to report the situation to the university and cooperate with its investigation.

Moore was released from jail Friday on $25,000 bond, according to police records obtained by Fox News Digital. 

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However, it’s unclear whether Moore will be returning home to his family. 

Moore’s attorney, Joseph Simon, declined to say whether the coach will be going home to his wife and three children while speaking to reporters at an Ann Arbor courthouse Friday. 

FIRED MICHIGAN COACH SHERRONE MOORE ACCUSED OF STALKING VICTIM ‘FOR MONTHS’ IN POLICE DISPATCH AUDIO

“I’m just going to not answer that question,” Simon said when asked if Moore was “going to be able to go home.”

Moore has been married to wife Kelli since 2015, and they have three daughters together — Shiloh, Solei and Sadie. Simon also declined to comment on the “mood” of his client after Moore was charged. 

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The conditions of Moore’s release require him to wear a GPS tether and continue mental health treatment and forbid him from communicating with the victim.

Moore was fired Wednesday, and the University of Michigan quickly announced it found credible evidence he had an “inappropriate relationship” with a staffer. Moore was then detained by police Wednesday after news of his dismissal broke. 

Moore was arraigned in court Friday on stalking and home invasion charges. According to prosecutors, he faces a felony charge of home invasion in the third degree and two misdemeanor charges of stalking and breaking and entering without the owner’s permission.

Both misdemeanor charges are related to a “domestic relationship.”

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Michigan Wolverines head football coach Sherrone Moore during warmups before a game against the Northwestern Wildcats at Wrigley Field in Chicago Nov. 15, 2025. (Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images)

When Moore was fired from his position as head coach, prosecutors said, it prompted him to visit the woman’s home. 

Moore then allegedly “barged” his way into the residence, grabbed a butter knife and a pair of kitchen scissors and began threatening his own life. According to prosecutors, Moore allegedly told the staffer, “My blood is on your hands” and “You ruined my life.” 

Prosecutors claimed Moore “terrorized” the staffer and that they believed him to be a “risk to public safety.” 

Fox News’ Patrick McGovern contributed to this report.

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