Sports

NBA Pre-Postseason Player Tiers 1 and 2: Wembanyama quickly rising; Giannis, Jokić steady at top

Published

3 weeks ago

April 12, 2024

NBA Pre-Postseason Player Tiers 1 and 2: Wembanyama quickly rising; Giannis, Jokić steady at top

Yesterday, I largely focused on setting the table for the updated NBA Pre-Postseason Players Tiers before revealing Tier 3 (players between the 24th and 42nd spot) and Tier 4 (Nos. 43-80).

Today, I’m going to get a little more into some of the more interesting and/or challenging placements, as well as note a few overall trends.

For starters, a consistent bit of feedback — and one I’ve gotten from multiple sources since the release of Tiers 3 and 4 — is the always difficult evaluation of which player is more valuable between an elite role player and a good-but-not-great primary or secondary creator. A senior analytics staffer within the league went so far as to argue they would prefer essentially the entirety of Tier 4A, largely made up of elite role players or connectors, over Tier 3B, which is made up of borderline All-Star primaries.

I don’t think there is a reliable way to solve this debate and on some level, deciding between, say, Mikal Bridges on one hand and Jaylen Brown on the other is more a function of the rest of the respective rosters than the individual players. In that particular comparison, I think it’s entirely possible, if not likely, that both the Celtics and Nets would be better if the two were exchanged!

NBA Player Tiers: ’20 | ’21 | ’22 | ‘23: T5| T4| T3 | T2 | T1 | ’24: T3&4

In some ways, this is really an extension of the long-simmering question of how to rate the sub-elite, yet still very good, level of on-ball players. At least to my way of thinking, there is nothing more valuable in the league than elite shot creation and nothing more overrated than mediocre shot creation, but finding the importance and desirability of players in between is just hard.

It’s also, in some form, the reason to do this exercise in the first place, as identifying that there is a fairly wide gap between Brown and Jayson Tatum and that the difference between Luka Dončić and Donovan Mitchell is substantial is a vital part of roster evaluation. Avoiding the cheapening of the term “franchise player,” in other words.

Another set of teammates who illustrate this dichotomy is Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. I didn’t think Banchero was an especially worthy All-Star this year. Through games of April 10, there are only eight players who have scored at least 100 fewer points than they would have a similar number of scoring attempts at league average efficiency according to Basketball Reference, with Banchero being seventh on that list. However, on some level, this is a result of Orlando’s lack of other creators. On my Simple Shot Quality model, his 50.2 percent expected eFG% is 24th lowest among the 162 players with at least 500 tracked shots attempted this season.

But to swing back around, the players with the 21st, 22nd and 23rd hardest shot diets are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards and Tatum, all of whom have significantly outperformed their shot expectancies by 209 (SGA, third of 162), 73 (Edwards, 45th) and 151 (Tatum, 13th) points scored, while Banchero has shot essentially at the level of his shot quality (-3 points, 124th of 162). Should he get credit for helping keep Orlando’s offense afloat at all by at least being able to soak up possessions? How would he perform with more creative guard play around him? I’m not entirely sure, which is why Banchero is a hard player to rate.

Meanwhile, Wagner does not have the same self-creation ability as Banchero, but he is superior in most other areas — more efficient scoring, better and more versatile defense, off ball play — in a way which would make him a very plug-and-play addition to any team that already had their primary creative roles filled.

Moving on, there are a few notable players who might have been much higher had I done a tiers update around midseason. Tyrese Haliburton is one. He’s been great this year, a worthy All-Star and the driving force behind Indiana’s powerful offense. But the second half of the year hasn’t measured up to the first, whether as result of nagging injuries slowing him down or defenses starting to figure him out or most likely a combination of both. This, combined with my uncertainty over how well his style translates to the playoffs has him down in Tier 3 when for much of the season I had him penciled into the bottom end of Tier 2.

Damian Lillard is another player who has dropped down a tier over the course of the season. Early in the year, it was easy to give somewhat of a pass based on both the adjustment to a new team and role as well as the coaching turmoil which beset the Bucks for the first stage of the season. But even though he has shown some of the old dominance in fits and starts, such as the 29 points (on 19 shot attempts) and nine assists he tallied on Wednesday to drive the Bucks past the Magic despite Giannis Antetokounmpo’s absence, those performances have been the exception rather than the rule. Over his final four seasons in Portland, Lillard combined for 62.1 True Shooting on 31.4 Usage. In Milwaukee, his efficiency has dipped to 59.3 TS on 28.4 Usage, his least efficient full season relative to league average since his rookie year. For a player who has always been a huge question mark defensively, it’s a worrisome decline at age 33.

Of course, he could shoot the hell out of the ball in the playoffs and help drag the Bucks to the Eastern Conference finals or even NBA Finals and prove he still belongs in the Top 20 discussion.

Speaking of playoffs, I mentioned yesterday that there were a few players who couldn’t readily improve their tiering until the playoffs, with Tatum, Dončić and Joel Embiid as the prime examples. All three have great opportunities entering the postseason this year, with Dončić in particular seeming well-poised to go on a run; the midseason addition of Daniel Gafford and the Mavericks’ new ability to always be able to match Dončić’s creative mastery with a strong dive-and-dunk pick-and-roll partner surrounded with shooting appears to have unlocked something special.

Meanwhile, there are a few players for whom I have already more or less assumed playoff greatness based on past experience. Jimmy Butler and Jamal Murray haven’t exactly had banner regular seasons, but both have track records of playoff dominance.

Bouncing around a little bit, I’m not sure what to do with Ja Morant and so I am essentially treating this as a gap year while acknowledging he has secured himself extra scrutiny next year.

Finally, let’s talk about the large Frenchman in the room. Victor Wembanyama in Tier 2B, among the Top 14 players in the league. I don’t think he has been All-NBA-level over the entire season, but he has been plenty good as a rookie and has shown development over the course of the year to suggest to me that he will start next season with a strong chance at all-league honors.

This growth is especially evident if you compare before and after either his move to starting at center instead of power forward in early December or the insertion of Tre Jones as a starter in early January to pair Wembanyama with a competent point guard.

On the former, he has been a top-five rim protector in the league since then, with a profile similar to that of Brook Lopez over that period. Meanwhile, prior to Jones joining the starters, Wembanyama only managed 53.3 True Shooting Percentage (on 29.9 usage), but since, that mark has jumped to 58.5 TS% on 33.7 Usage while he has raised his assist rate by nearly 50 percent. And all this with his 3-point shooting still very much a work in progress.

Of course, the numbers don’t even tell close to the full Wemby story as demonstrated by the near nightly parade of “Wait, he did what?!” highlights. While he won’t get a chance to prove himself in this year’s playoffs, it seems almost inevitable that, if he can avoid injury, he’ll be knocking on the door of Tier 1 soon as he has delivered on everything he was hyped to be, and more.

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(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos: Michael Gonzales, Garrett Ellwood, Adam Pantozzi / NBAE via Getty)

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Sports

Former Bears quarterback Bob Avellini dead at 70

Published

5 hours ago

May 5, 2024

Press Room

Former Bears quarterback Bob Avellini dead at 70

Former Chicago Bears quarterback Bob Avellini, who spent all nine of his NFL seasons in the Windy City, died Saturday. He was 70 years old.

The Bears announced that Avellini lost a battle with cancer.

“Bob was one-of-a-kind, a fierce and tough competitor,” the Bears said in a statement. “He’s perhaps best remembered for leading the Bears on an improbable run in 1977 to our first postseason appearance in fourteen years. He will be missed.”

Bob Avellini of the Chicago Bears drops back to pass during the game against the New Orleans Saints at Soldier Field in Chicago on Oct. 2, 1977. Avellini played for the Bears from 1975 to 1984. (Focus on Sport/Getty Images)

In 1977, both Avellini and Walter Payton, the Bears’ star running back who reached the Hall of Fame, had their best career seasons.

Payton was certainly the beating heart of Chicago’s offense, rushing for a league-high 1,852 yards with 14 touchdowns on the ground.

MAHOMES MOUNTAIN: WHERE DO CALEB WILLIAMS, ROOKIES LAND ON NICK WRIGHT’S QB TIERS?

But Avellini had a career-high 2,004 yards on 154 completions with 11 touchdowns over 14 games.

Bears quarterback Bob Avellini is shown during a game at Soldier Field in Chicago circa 1977. (Focus on Sport/Getty Images)

As the team’s statement said, the Bears hadn’t made the playoffs in 14 years until 1977, when they finally broke the drought. However, the Bears were blown out by the Dallas Cowboys, 37-7, and Avellini threw four interceptions to one touchdown on 25 attempts.

Avellini had a 23-27 regular-season record in 73 games from 1975 through 1984, throwing for 7,111 yards and 33 touchdowns.

Quarterback Bob Avellini of the Chicago Bears is shown circa 1979. (Bruce Bennett Studios via Getty Images Studios)

The Queens, New York City, native was in the same draft class as Payton, with the Bears picking Avellini 135th overall in the sixth round of the 1975 NFL Draft out of Maryland.

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The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Sports

Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan might be skipping Preakness Stakes

Published

5 hours ago

May 5, 2024

Press Room

Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan might be skipping Preakness Stakes

LOUISVILLE, Ky. —

Mystik Dan’s road to the Triple Crown might be taking a detour before the Preakness Stakes. Kenny McPeek, trainer of the Kentucky Derby winner, said Sunday morning that he has not committed to going to Baltimore to race May 18 after the horse seemed a little off after Saturday’s victory.

“We’re not committed to the Preakness,” McPeek said. “I ran him back once in two weeks and it completely backfired on me.”

One thing that trainers use to gauge a horse’s fitness is how they eat. In short, an empty feed bucket means a happy horse.

“Most trainers don’t talk about all this,” McPeek said. “Look, cards on the table, face up. He left three-quarters of his feed. We couldn’t hardly get everybody out of the barn until midnight, so he didn’t really get a great night’s rest. We’ll watch him today and tomorrow.”

At this point it is closer to a coin flip more than anything else if Mystik Dan will run in the Preakness. There is no need to take any chances with a colt whose breeding value jumped exponentially after winning the Kentucky Derby by the slimmest of noses.

“The back story on that [two-week reference] is that I ran the colt back too quick in November,” McPeek said on Saturday night before knowing about Sunday’s development. “He won really easy in his maiden race and I wanted to stretch him out and it was the end of the season.

Mystik Dan trainer Kenny McPeek raises the trophy with his family after winning the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs.

(Michael Reaves / Getty Images)

“I ran him back in an allowance race going a mile and he coughed up a lung infection on me. Learned a little lesson there with him. I feel if a horse is doing good and we can win a race, let’s give it a run. That one backfired.”

McPeek said a decision might not be made until next Monday when entries are taken for the Preakness. It’s not unusual for a horse to be shipped to Baltimore on the Wednesday before the race.

“We’re going to have a lot of input,” co-owner Lance Gasaway told Horse Racing Nation. “It’s all about the horse. Let’s see how the horse comes out of the race. Give him two or three days. If he comes out good, we’ll look at it. If not, we’ll worry about the horse more than anything.”

If he doesn’t go, it will spoil his rematch with Muth. Mystik Dan finished third in the Arkansas Derby while Muth won it. But Muth was not eligible to run in the Kentucky Derby because he is trained by Bob Baffert, who is in the third year of a ban that was originally set at two years. Churchill Downs barred him from its properties after Medina Spirit tested positive for a legal medication that is banned on race day after winning the 2021 Derby. Baffert has had no horses fail a test since then.

Baffert is expected to also enter Imagination, who finished second in the Santa Anita Derby to Stronghold, who finished seventh in the Derby. Baffert has won the Preakness eight times, including last year with National Treasure.

If Mystik Dan does not go to Baltimore it would heighten the conversation about the relevance of the Preakness Stakes at a time that most horses don’t come back on two weeks’ rest. The Stronach Group, which owns Santa Anita Park, just turned over Pimlico Race Course to the state of Maryland but still retains the intellectual properties of the Preakness Stakes.

Aidan Butler, chief executive of its racing division, has been floating ideas that the Triple Crown should be retooled with each race held a month apart rather than two weeks from the Derby to the Preakness and three weeks from the Preakness to the Belmont. This could certainly bolster his argument.

There is no doubt that current training patterns do not favor a two-week turnaround. Last year there was only one Derby horse that ran in the Preakness, the only one that mattered, Derby winner Mage. The previous year, Rich Strike skipped the Preakness. In 2021, Medina Spirit ran in the Preakness and finished third. The Derby result was overturned and Mandaloun was declared the winner, so technically the Derby winner was not in the race.

In 2020, the COVID year, the Preakness was held in October and the Derby winner, Authentic, was in the race. The Derby was run in September.

A survey of most of the other trainers by Churchill Downs media relations could not find any takers ready to go to Baltimore. The jockey for T O Password, Kazishi Kimura, indicated on Saturday that he thought the horse could go to the Preakness. But the people who pay the bills have him headed back to Japan.

“He’s good this morning, no problems but he is tired,” Kimura said. “It is what it is. He missed the first step and from there I followed Sierra Leone. He tried hard all the way.”

The second-place finisher, Sierra Leone, will be skipping the Preakness.

“He’s good, but he’s not going to the Preakness,” trainer Chad Brown said. “I’m going to take him to Saratoga tomorrow and he’s going to train there for the Belmont [Stakes]. He’s a little tired. He’s a real laid back horse but when we brought him out, he was a little more tired than he normally is after his races. I think giving him the five weeks to the Belmont is definitely the right thing to do.”

Regardless if Mystik Dan runs in two weeks, he’ll also be headed back to Saratoga, where McPeek has a home.

McPeek now has a career Triple Crown having won the Preakness in 2020 with Swiss Skydiver and the Belmont in 2002 with Sarava at 70-1 odds.

Will McPeek now start to get doubles on his career Triple Crown? The thinking is the answer lies in the feed bucket.

Sports

Mystik Dan wins 150th Kentucky Derby in photo finish

Published

12 hours ago

May 5, 2024

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Mystik Dan wins 150th Kentucky Derby in photo finish

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Mystik Dan (18-1) won the 150th Kentucky Derby Saturday in a photo finish.

It was the first time in 28 years the Kentucky Derby was won by a nose and just the 10th time ever.

Track Phantom (41-1) and Just Steel (21-1) led up until the ¾-mile mark, with Fierceness, the 3-1 favorite, in third. Mystik Dan, though, held the inside right behind them.

Mystik Dan, ridden by jockey Brian J. Hernandez Jr., crosses the finish line to win the 150th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs May 4, 2024, in Louisville, Ky. (Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

Mystik Dan, ridden by Brian Hernandez Jr., busted through the pack after the final turn. After the turn, Fierceness fell way behind.

Mystik Dan led by several lengths in the final stretch, but Sierra Leone (9-2), the second-highest favorite, crept up from the outside, pushing Japanese horse Forever Young toward the railing.

Those three horses were within noses of each other, but it was Mystik Dan’s that crossed the line first.

Sierra Leone finished second and Forever Young finished third, while Fierceness finished 15th, 24½ lengths behind.

A general view of Churchill Downs ahead of the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby May 6, 2023, in Louisville, Ky. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

This year’s race came with much less controversy than last year’s. A dozen horses died at Churchill Downs in the days, and even hours, leading up to last year’s race.

Notably absent from this year’s race was Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who’s two-year ban was extended through 2024, making this the third straight Kentucky Derby a Baffert-trained horse did not compete.

A six-time winner at the Derby, Baffert was banned after 2021 Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit was stripped of the title due to a failed post-race drug test. The horse died of a heart attack that December.