Sports
NBA Pre-Postseason Player Tiers 1 and 2: Wembanyama quickly rising; Giannis, Jokić steady at top
Yesterday, I largely focused on setting the table for the updated NBA Pre-Postseason Players Tiers before revealing Tier 3 (players between the 24th and 42nd spot) and Tier 4 (Nos. 43-80).
Today, I’m going to get a little more into some of the more interesting and/or challenging placements, as well as note a few overall trends.
For starters, a consistent bit of feedback — and one I’ve gotten from multiple sources since the release of Tiers 3 and 4 — is the always difficult evaluation of which player is more valuable between an elite role player and a good-but-not-great primary or secondary creator. A senior analytics staffer within the league went so far as to argue they would prefer essentially the entirety of Tier 4A, largely made up of elite role players or connectors, over Tier 3B, which is made up of borderline All-Star primaries.
I don’t think there is a reliable way to solve this debate and on some level, deciding between, say, Mikal Bridges on one hand and Jaylen Brown on the other is more a function of the rest of the respective rosters than the individual players. In that particular comparison, I think it’s entirely possible, if not likely, that both the Celtics and Nets would be better if the two were exchanged!
NBA Player Tiers: ’20 | ’21 | ’22 | ‘23: T5| T4| T3 | T2 | T1 | ’24: T3&4
In some ways, this is really an extension of the long-simmering question of how to rate the sub-elite, yet still very good, level of on-ball players. At least to my way of thinking, there is nothing more valuable in the league than elite shot creation and nothing more overrated than mediocre shot creation, but finding the importance and desirability of players in between is just hard.
It’s also, in some form, the reason to do this exercise in the first place, as identifying that there is a fairly wide gap between Brown and Jayson Tatum and that the difference between Luka Dončić and Donovan Mitchell is substantial is a vital part of roster evaluation. Avoiding the cheapening of the term “franchise player,” in other words.
Another set of teammates who illustrate this dichotomy is Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. I didn’t think Banchero was an especially worthy All-Star this year. Through games of April 10, there are only eight players who have scored at least 100 fewer points than they would have a similar number of scoring attempts at league average efficiency according to Basketball Reference, with Banchero being seventh on that list. However, on some level, this is a result of Orlando’s lack of other creators. On my Simple Shot Quality model, his 50.2 percent expected eFG% is 24th lowest among the 162 players with at least 500 tracked shots attempted this season.
But to swing back around, the players with the 21st, 22nd and 23rd hardest shot diets are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards and Tatum, all of whom have significantly outperformed their shot expectancies by 209 (SGA, third of 162), 73 (Edwards, 45th) and 151 (Tatum, 13th) points scored, while Banchero has shot essentially at the level of his shot quality (-3 points, 124th of 162). Should he get credit for helping keep Orlando’s offense afloat at all by at least being able to soak up possessions? How would he perform with more creative guard play around him? I’m not entirely sure, which is why Banchero is a hard player to rate.
Meanwhile, Wagner does not have the same self-creation ability as Banchero, but he is superior in most other areas — more efficient scoring, better and more versatile defense, off ball play — in a way which would make him a very plug-and-play addition to any team that already had their primary creative roles filled.
Moving on, there are a few notable players who might have been much higher had I done a tiers update around midseason. Tyrese Haliburton is one. He’s been great this year, a worthy All-Star and the driving force behind Indiana’s powerful offense. But the second half of the year hasn’t measured up to the first, whether as result of nagging injuries slowing him down or defenses starting to figure him out or most likely a combination of both. This, combined with my uncertainty over how well his style translates to the playoffs has him down in Tier 3 when for much of the season I had him penciled into the bottom end of Tier 2.
Damian Lillard is another player who has dropped down a tier over the course of the season. Early in the year, it was easy to give somewhat of a pass based on both the adjustment to a new team and role as well as the coaching turmoil which beset the Bucks for the first stage of the season. But even though he has shown some of the old dominance in fits and starts, such as the 29 points (on 19 shot attempts) and nine assists he tallied on Wednesday to drive the Bucks past the Magic despite Giannis Antetokounmpo’s absence, those performances have been the exception rather than the rule. Over his final four seasons in Portland, Lillard combined for 62.1 True Shooting on 31.4 Usage. In Milwaukee, his efficiency has dipped to 59.3 TS on 28.4 Usage, his least efficient full season relative to league average since his rookie year. For a player who has always been a huge question mark defensively, it’s a worrisome decline at age 33.
Of course, he could shoot the hell out of the ball in the playoffs and help drag the Bucks to the Eastern Conference finals or even NBA Finals and prove he still belongs in the Top 20 discussion.
Speaking of playoffs, I mentioned yesterday that there were a few players who couldn’t readily improve their tiering until the playoffs, with Tatum, Dončić and Joel Embiid as the prime examples. All three have great opportunities entering the postseason this year, with Dončić in particular seeming well-poised to go on a run; the midseason addition of Daniel Gafford and the Mavericks’ new ability to always be able to match Dončić’s creative mastery with a strong dive-and-dunk pick-and-roll partner surrounded with shooting appears to have unlocked something special.
Meanwhile, there are a few players for whom I have already more or less assumed playoff greatness based on past experience. Jimmy Butler and Jamal Murray haven’t exactly had banner regular seasons, but both have track records of playoff dominance.
Bouncing around a little bit, I’m not sure what to do with Ja Morant and so I am essentially treating this as a gap year while acknowledging he has secured himself extra scrutiny next year.
Finally, let’s talk about the large Frenchman in the room. Victor Wembanyama in Tier 2B, among the Top 14 players in the league. I don’t think he has been All-NBA-level over the entire season, but he has been plenty good as a rookie and has shown development over the course of the year to suggest to me that he will start next season with a strong chance at all-league honors.
This growth is especially evident if you compare before and after either his move to starting at center instead of power forward in early December or the insertion of Tre Jones as a starter in early January to pair Wembanyama with a competent point guard.
On the former, he has been a top-five rim protector in the league since then, with a profile similar to that of Brook Lopez over that period. Meanwhile, prior to Jones joining the starters, Wembanyama only managed 53.3 True Shooting Percentage (on 29.9 usage), but since, that mark has jumped to 58.5 TS% on 33.7 Usage while he has raised his assist rate by nearly 50 percent. And all this with his 3-point shooting still very much a work in progress.
Of course, the numbers don’t even tell close to the full Wemby story as demonstrated by the near nightly parade of “Wait, he did what?!” highlights. While he won’t get a chance to prove himself in this year’s playoffs, it seems almost inevitable that, if he can avoid injury, he’ll be knocking on the door of Tier 1 soon as he has delivered on everything he was hyped to be, and more.
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(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos: Michael Gonzales, Garrett Ellwood, Adam Pantozzi / NBAE via Getty)
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Thunder lose star Jalen Williams for Western Conference Finals Game 7 as hamstring injury lingers
Spurs force Game 7 vs. Thunder, SGA struggles, Will Wemby carry this momentum? | The Herd
Victor Wembanyama scored 28 points and 10 rebounds in the San Antonio Spurs’ 118-91 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 6 of the WCF. Jason McIntyre says that Wemby showed up in the biggest moments, and asks if he can carry this momentum into Game 7. Plus, he discusses Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s struggles and asks if he will cost the Thunder the series.
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The Oklahoma City Thunder will be shorthanded in Saturday’s pivotal Game 7, as one of Oklahoma’s key contributors has been sidelined with an injury.
OKC guard Jalen Williams has been ruled out for Game 7 with a hamstring issue, ESPN reported on Friday. Williams appeared to aggravate his left hamstring during the Thunder’s 122-113 victory in Game 2. He missed the next three games before returning for Game 6, but logged just 10 minutes off the bench in Oklahoma City’s loss to the San Antonio Spurs on Thursday, which forced a winner-take-all Game 7.
“He’s obviously not 100%,” Mark Daigneault, the head coach of the Thunder, said.
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Jalen Williams watches during the fourth quarter against the San Antonio Spurs in Game One of the NBA Western Conference Finals at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma on May 18, 2026. (Alex Slitz/Getty Images)
Daigneault applauded Williams for fighting through the injury and doing everything he could to help Oklahoma City.
“He didn’t know what to expect. I didn’t know what to expect. So, it was a matter of getting him out there in kind of an insulated role and see what he can bring to the team. He’s an All-Star player, he’s an All-NBA player. He hasn’t done a full return to play [protocol] like he would if this was the regular season, and yet, he just wants to do whatever he can to try to contribute whatever he can to the team.”
BLOCKBUSTER GAME 7 SHOWDOWN: FOUR BEST BETS FOR SAN ANTONIO SPURS AT OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
“I give him a lot of credit to get himself out there. He did the best he could. He’s certainly not the reason we lost.”
Oklahoma City Thunder forward Jalen Williams reacts to a shot by forward Luguentz Dort in the third quarter against the San Antonio Spurs during game one of the Western Conference finals for the 2026 NBA playoffs at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, on May 18, 2026. (Alonzo Adams/Imagn Images)
Williams did not talk to reporters after Thursday’s game in San Antonio.
Williams underwent surgery last offseason to repair a wrist injury but still played a key role in the Thunder’s run to the NBA Finals last season. He appeared in just 33 regular-season games before this year’s playoffs.
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Jalen Williams drives into the paint during the first quarter of Game Two of the NBA Western Conference Finals against the San Antonio Spurs at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma on May 20, 2026. (Alex Slitz/Getty Images)
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The winner of Saturday’s Game 7 will advance to the NBA Finals to face the New York Knicks. New York snapped a nearly three-decade Finals drought by sweeping the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference finals.
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CLOVIS — Cool conditions produced a bunch of fast times Friday at the CIF state track and field championships.
Rosary Academy sprint coach Jon Gilmer was worried 4×100-meter relayers Tra’via Flournoy, Justine Wilson, Pfeiffer Lee and Maliyah Collins might get complacent at prelims, but the Royals were the top qualifiers in 45.13 seconds — nearly a full second faster than Canyon Country Canyon (46.07) — at Buchanan High School.
“It’s different not having Calabasas here,” Gilmer said. “Now we’ve got to push ourselves.”
Rosary set a state record (44.23) at the Arcadia Invitational on April 11, but lost to the Coyotes one week later at the Mt. SAC Relays. However, the anticipated state finals clash was not to be as Calabasas dropped the baton in the Southern Section finals and failed to advance.
Collins had a huge lead by the time she received the stick for the anchor leg Friday.
“This is maybe our fourth- or fifth-fastest time but we just wanted to make finals,” said Wilson, who ran the second leg before handing off to Lee. “We want to run faster tomorrow when we go for a PR, the meet and the state record.”
Calabasas might be out of the relay, but three Coyotes remain in contention in the 100, led by Malia Rainey (the top qualifier in 11.54), Marley Scoggins (11.63) and Olivia Kirk (11.63).
Calabasas sprinter Marley Scoggins, center, wins her 100-meter heat at the CIF state track and field preliminaries on Friday.
(Steve Galluzzo / For The Times)
Collins won her heat in 11.62, the third-fastest time.
Servite won the first heat in the boys 4×100 relay in 40.29 — two hundredths off its winning time at last year’s state finals — and is primed to defend its title in the event. Concord De La Salle (40.81) was the second-fastest qualifier, followed by the other heat winners, Rancho Cucamonga (40.87) and Loyola (40.93).
“We got the stick around pretty good today,” said Jorden Wells, who ran the first leg Friday instead of his customary second leg, which was run by Jaelen Hunter. “Did it feel different? Not really, I’ve done it before.”
Wells said his twin brother Jace will run the first leg Saturday, he will run the second while Kamil Pelovello and Benjamin Harris will stay in the third and fourth positions.
Harris, the favorite to win the 100 meters, won his heat in a wind-legal 10.36, but three others were fractions faster in wind-aided times — Elk Grove’s Cy Lugo (10.20), Will Wood’s Deshawn Seymour (10.34) and De La Salle’s Damari Dean (10.34). Newbury Park’s Jaden Griffin won the last heat in 10.37, setting the stage for an exciting finals sprint as all nine qualifiers ran under 10.48.
Harris put himself in position for a Saturday double by winning his 200 heat in 21.10 but as he did in the 100, Lugo (the Sac-Joaquin Section record holder) had the fastest time (20.73), followed by Seymour (20.88), Camren Hughes (20.93) of Palos Verdes and Jace Wells (21.02). Jordan Wells (21.11) also made the cut.
Newbury Park’s Jaden Griffin, center, shouts after winning his heat in the 100 meters at the CIF state track and field preliminaries on Friday.
(Steve Galluzzo / For The Times)
Servite (3:15.43) had the second-fastest qualifying time in the 4×400-meter relay behind only El Cerrito (3:14.96) of the North Coast Section.
Coming off a state-record 3:33.83 at the Masters Meet in Moorpark, Long Beach Wilson’s 4×400 girls relay had the fourth-fastest qualifying time (3:46.73) without two out of its best runners (Clara Adams and Saniah Varnado), taking second in the first heat behind San Luis Obispo (3:45.85) and safely advancing to the finals along with Heat 2 runner-up Rosary (3:45.08) and Heat 3 winner Canyon Country Canyon (3:46.77).
Having broken the Southern Section record in the 400 meters six days earlier in 51.98, Adams put it in cruise control to win her heat in 53.53, the fastest qualifying mark. Joining her in the final will be her three relay teammates Varnado (54.42), Wilson (54.57) and Fowler (54.62). Adams later won her 200 heat in 23.60, a tenth of a second behind fastest qualifier Naiaja Sizemore of Vanden.
San Jacinto Valley Academy’s Kaahliyah Lacy ran a wind-legal 13.59 for the top qualifying spot in the girls 100 hurdles and Varnado (40.85) was the top qualifier in the 300 hurdles.
Another showdown is brewing in the boys 400, where Loyola’s Ejam Yohannes (47.08) and Hunter (47.21) won their heats in the two fastest times Friday. Hunter clocked 46.32 to set a California freshman record last spring, but lost to Yohannes by 11 hundredths of a second at the Masters Meet.
City Section champion Jayden Rendon showed good form in his bid to defend the state 300 hurdles crown, posting the fastest prelims time (36.80). He also advanced to the finals in the 110 hurdles with a 13.83 effort. Moorpark’s Davis Benson (14.03) nabbed the last spot.
Corona Santiago’s Braelyn Combe, right, wins the first heat of the 800 meters at the CIF state track and field preliminaries on Friday.
(Steve Galluzzo / For The Times)
Corona Santiago senior Braelyn Combe won her 1,600 heat in 4:46.88 and is set for a four-lap battle with San Diego Section champion Chiara Dailey of La Jolla, who won the second heat in 4:46.00. Combe is the defending champion, having edged Hanne Thomsen of Santa Rosa Montgomery by five hundredths of a second in the finals last year.
“I just wanted to advance with as little effort as possible,” Combe said. “It was not as hard as I expected. I don’t want to leave any regrets. I’m taking it one race at a time.”
Combe also had the fastest time (2:08:25) of three heats in the 800 meters.
Venice senior Lawrence Kensinger, who set the City Section shot put record with a state-leading throw of 65 feet 11 inches last week, had the third-best mark at prelims (59-6¾) and easily advanced to the finals. Defending state high jump champion JJ Harel of Sherman Oaks Notre Dame tied nine others for the second-best mark (6-6) heading into the second day.
Aliso Niguel senior Jaslene Massey had the top marks in the girls shot put (51-3¾) and discus (175-6) and transgender athlete AB Hernandez from Jurupa Valley was the leading qualifier in the girls long jump (20-5½) and triple jump (41-8½) and was one of 13 qualifiers in the high jump.
AB Hernandez competes at the CIF state track and field preliminaries at Buchanan High School on Friday.
(Tomas Ovalle / For The Times)
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We’re approaching the biggest sporting event North America has ever hosted.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup takes place across the USA, Canada and Mexico in 13 days.
Bettors and fans already have their sights set on the global spectacle, which will kick off on June 11. The World Cup final will be held at New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium on July 19, 2026.
After the World Cup groups were announced in December, Spain opened as the favorite at +450, followed by England (+550) and France (+750).
Now, with less than two weeks to go, Spain has slightly drifted to +475, with both France and England making up ground on the oddsboard.
Let’s dive into the odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of May 29.
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2026 World Cup winner odds
Spain: +475 (bet $10 to win $57.5 total)
France: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)
England: +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total)
Brazil: +850 (bet $10 to win $95 total)
Argentina: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)
Portugal: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Germany: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Netherlands: +2200 (bet $10 to win $230 total)
Norway: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
Belgium: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
Colombia: +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total)
Morocco: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Uruguay: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
United States: +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total)
Switzerland: +6500 (bet $10 to win $660 total)
Japan: +6500 (bet $10 to win $660 total)
Mexico: +8000 (bet $10 to win $810 total)
Croatia: +8000 (bet $10 to win $810 total)
Ecuador: +8000 (bet $10 to win $810 total)
Senegal: +9000 (bet $10 to win $910 total)
Sweden: +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
HOST NATIONS
United States
The United States is led by Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams, and Chris Richards, with several players competing in Europe’s top leagues. The U.S. has appeared in 11 previous World Cups, with its best finish coming in 1930 when the team reached the semifinals.
Canada
Canada’s key players include Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David, giving the squad top-tier pace and goal-scoring ability. Canada has made two previous World Cup appearances, and is still looking for its first win ever in the tournament.
Mexico
Mexico’s top contributors include Raul Giménez and Edson Álvarez, forming a strong mix of attacking talent and midfield stability. Mexico has played in 17 previous World Cups and reached the quarterfinals twice, in 1970 and 1986.
UEFA TEAMS TO KNOW
Spain
Spain’s top talents include Pedri, Lamine Yamal and Rodri, forming a core that blends elite playmaking with scoring depth. Spain has appeared in 16 previous World Cups and won the tournament once, lifting the trophy in 2010. The team also won the 2024 Euros.
France
France enters with Kylian Mbappé as the star player, with the 26-year-old just five goals shy of passing Miroslav Klose (16) for the most career goals at the World Cup. France has made 16 previous World Cup appearances and won the title twice, in 1998 and 2018.
England
England’s key players include Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham and Declan Rice, forming one of the nation’s strongest generations in decades. England has reached 16 previous World Cups and won the trophy once, in 1966.
Germany
Germany features Florian Wirtz, Jamal Musiala and Joshua Kimmich as central figures in a talented squad. Germany has participated in 20 previous World Cups and won four titles, most recently in 2014.
Portugal
Portugal’s top group includes Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha, with Cristiano Ronaldo still involved as the team’s all-time leading scorer and cap leader. Portugal has competed in eight previous World Cups and recorded its best finish in 2006, reaching the semifinals.
Netherlands
The Netherlands features top players such as Virgil van Dijk, Ryan Gravenberch and Denzel Dumfries, forming a core built around elite defending and midfield control. Memphis Depay should also be on the team, the country’s all-time leading goalscorer. The Netherlands has appeared in 11 previous World Cups and finished as runner-up three times, in 1974, 1978 and 2010.
CONMEBOL TEAMS TO KNOW
Argentina
Argentina is anchored by Lionel Messi, with Julián Álvarez, Enzo Fernández and Lautaro Martínez— headlining one of the most talented rosters in the tournament. Argentina has played in 18 previous World Cups and won three, including the most recent tournament in 2022.
Brazil
Brazil’s roster is led by Vinícius Júnior, Raphinha and Marquinhos, giving the team elite attacking and defensive quality. Brazil has appeared in every World Cup and holds a record five titles, with its most recent one coming in 2002.
Uruguay
Uruguay’s leading players include Federico Valverde, Darwin Núñez and Ronald Araújo, forming a core with elite midfield range and speed. Uruguay has appeared in 14 previous World Cups and won the tournament twice, in 1930 and 1950.
Colombia
Colombia is headlined by Luis Díaz and James Rodríguez, with the former playing for Bayern Munich and the latter having a decorated World Cup résumé. Colombia has made six previous World Cupsand recorded its best finish in 2014, reaching the quarterfinals.
CAF TEAMS TO KNOW
Morocco
Morocco’s key contributors include Achraf Hakimi, Noussair Mazaroui and Brahm Díaz, each with major European club experience. Morocco has appeared in six previous World Cups and achieved its historic best finish in 2022, reaching the semifinals.
Senegal
Senegal’s top players include Sadio Mané, Kalidou Koulibaly and Idrissa Gueye, forming one of Africa’s most experienced cores. Senegal has appeared in three World Cups and reached its best finish in 2002, advancing to the quarterfinals.
Ghana
Ghana is led by Mohammed Kudus, Antoine Semenyo and Inaki Williams, giving the squad strong playmaking and midfield presence. Ghana has competed in four previous World Cups and reached its best result in 2010, making the quarterfinals.
AFC TEAMS TO KNOW
South Korea
South Korea is headlined by Son Heung-min, supported by key players such as Kim Min-jae and Lee Kang-in. South Korea has played in 11 previous World Cups and reached its best finish in 2002, advancing to the semifinals as co-host.
Japan
Japan features Takefusa Kubo and Kaoru Mitoma as its leading players, blending top European experience with emerging talent. Japan has appeared in seven previous World Cups and reached the Round of 16 four times, its best result to date.
Australia
Australia’s top players include Jackson Irvine and keeper Mathew Ryan as its most experienced members. Australia has competed in six previous World Cups and reached the round of 16 twice, in 2006 and 2022.
OFC TEAMS TO KNOW
New Zealand
New Zealand is led by all-time leading scorer Chris Wood, with 45 international goals to his name. New Zealand has appeared in two previous World Cups (1982, 2010), and did not advance from the group stage in either appearance.
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