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March Madness upset picks: Bracket Breakers chooses its 10 most likely first-round stunners

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March Madness upset picks: Bracket Breakers chooses its 10 most likely first-round stunners

Welcome back to Bracket Breakers! We know you’ve missed us, and we can’t wait to overwhelm you with our unique take on NCAA tournament upsets, powered by our proprietary statistical model, Slingshot. Hopefully, you’ve been following our work for years. But if you’re new to Bracket Breakers, here’s the most recent explanation of who we are, what we do and the state of Slingshot.

In the coming days, we will offer deep regional previews of every first-round matchup that qualifies as a Bracket Breaker game (meaning there must be a differential of at least five seeds). We’ll also provide upset probabilities for every potential second-round matchup on Wednesday. You won’t want to fill out a bracket or place a moneyline bet without checking out that piece!

But as you begin to digest the bracket, we wanted to provide a quick list of the 10 likeliest first-round upsets. We swear we don’t have anything against the Palmetto State — after all, Furman professors Liz Bouzarth, John Harris and Kevin Hutson provide the math behind Slingshot — but our model certainly isn’t bullish on the two power-conference teams from South Carolina.

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March madness bracket prep: Capsule previews for all 68 teams, with strengths, weaknesses, outlooks and more

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As always, Slingshot looks at teams separated by at least 5 seeds, estimates their basic strengths, adjusts those power ratings according to how closely each team fits the statistical profiles of past Davids or Goliaths, and then modifies them again to account for matchups. This year, we’ve upgraded our cluster analysis. And without further ado, the top results.

For more Underdogs, listen to Peter and Jordan’s podcast. 

10 Most Likely First-Round Upsets

1. No. 6 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 11 New Mexico Lobos

Upset Chance: 57.8 percent

2. No. 6 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 11 Oregon Ducks

Upset Chance: 43.2 percent

3. No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 11 NC State Wolfpack

Upset Chance: 38.2 percent

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4. No. 5 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 12 McNeese Cowboys

Upset Chance: 30.8 percent

5. No. 5 Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon Lopes

Upset Chance: 30.4 percent

6. No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 13 Samford Bulldogs

Upset Chance: 30.1 percent

7. No.5 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 12 UAB Blazers

Upset Chance: 27.8 percent

8. No. 6 BYU Cougars vs. No. 11 Duquesne Dukes

Upset Chance: 24.8 percent

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9. No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 12 James Madison Dukes

Upset Chance: 24.4 percent

10. No. 3 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 14 Akron Zips

Upset Chance: 20.4 percent

Thanks to John Harris, Kevin Hutson and Liz Bouzarth of Furman University for research assistance.

(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photo of New Mexico’s Jaelen House: Ian Maule / Getty Images; Photo of Grand Canyon’s Gabe McGlothan: Ian Maule / AP)

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Iga Swiatek finds Billie Jean King Cup joy, ATP Tour Finals sets up Australian Open draw

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Iga Swiatek finds Billie Jean King Cup joy, ATP Tour Finals sets up Australian Open draw

Welcome back to the Monday Tennis Briefing, where The Athletic will explain the stories behind the stories from the past week on court.

This week, Jannik Sinner further stamped his authority on men’s tennis by winning the ATP Tour Finals against Taylor Fritz. Elsewhere, the Billie Jean King Cup took center stage on the women’s tour and Nick Kyrgios announced his return to the sport.

If you’d like to follow our fantastic tennis coverage, click here.


The end to a season Iga Swiatek needed?

She split with her coach, breaking up a partnership that won four Grand Slams.

She lost her No. 1 ranking to Aryna Sabalenka.

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She lost a match to Coco Gauff, in a rivalry she leads 12-2.

Then Iga Swiatek went to the Billie Jean King Cup in Malaga to play team tennis for Poland and got back on track. She battled back from dropping several healthy leads against Linda Noskova, who knocked her out of the Australian Open in January, then walked on court 30 minutes after that with Katarzyna Kawa for a 6-2, 6-4 win over Marie Bouzkova and doubles world No. 1 Katerina Siniakova to beat the Czech Republic 2-1 and move into the semifinals.

Swiatek skipped the past two editions to recover from the WTA Tour Finals. A flourish of wins and camaraderie in Malaga appears to be just what the doctor ordered at the start of her new partnership with Wim Fissette.

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Emotional intelligence, data, and tough love: Who is Wim Fissette the coach?

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Matt Futterman


Will rankings help Great Britain at the Billie Jean King Cup?

Great Britain’s doubles players Heather Watson and Olivia Nicholls have been spectators at the Billie Jean King Cup.

Britain have beaten Germany and 2023 champions Canada 2-0 with all four victories in straight sets — thanks to the excellent performances of singles players Katie Boulter and Emma Raducanu.

The pair are No. 24 and No. 58 in the world but their rankings would be closer were it not for Raducanu’s various injuries over the last few years. They play to a very similar level and both raise their game in a team environment.


Emma Raducanu has thrived in the Billie Jean King Cup in 2024. (Fran Santiago / Getty Images for ITF)

Great Britain’s singles team effectively features two players worthy of top singles billing, a handy advantage when the second-tier players by world ranking go head-to-head in the opening rubber of a tie. Raducanu led off for Great Britain against Germany and Canada and was a level above her opponent. She thrashed world No. 91 Jule Niemeier 6-2, 6-2 in the win over Germany on Friday and then beat Canada’s world No. 103 Rebecca Marino 6-0, 7-5. Boulter followed up with straight-sets victories of her own.

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Next up for Britain is a semifinal on Tuesday against Team USA’s conquerors Slovakia, with world No. 41 Rebecca Sramkova in remarkable form. If Boulter and Raducanu keep playing the way they are then Watson and Nicholls will remain as active on the Malaga match court as the rest of us watching.

scatter visualization
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Emma Raducanu has done all-or-nothing tennis. Now, can she just play?

Charlie Eccleshare


How do the ATP Tour Finals affect the Australian Open?

The biggest knock-on from the men’s tour finals to the first Grand Slam of 2025 probably happened before the event started in Turin, Italy. When Novak Djokovic decided not to play — and to relinquish his 1,300 ranking points as defending champion — he sealed his fate of falling outside the top four seeds in Melbourne, making him a pretty nightmarish quarterfinal opponent for anyone in that top four if he goes deep in Australia, the major he has won more than any other.

chart visualization

The rest of men’s tennis has roughly two months to obsess about how far ahead of them Jannik Sinner is. Carlos Alcaraz is excused after beating Sinner three times out of three in 2024 and winning the two majors that Sinner did not, but the Italian’s destruction of the field on Turin’s hard court made plain what all of them have sensed: the era of tennis as chess is on hiatus.

Casper Ruud, a three-time Grand Slam finalist, has declared himself a dinosaur at 25.

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“I’m not going to start playing a different style of tennis now,” he said in a news conference in Turin.

“I need to flatten out the shots more. From defense, especially on hard court, I need to take a bit more risk.”

A few other strays: Alex de Minaur knows he needs to take a break and get healthy. Taylor Fritz is going to feel very good about a potential match-up with Alexander Zverev. Alcaraz will kiss the ground knowing that he will be playing an outdoor tournament.

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Jannik Sinner wins ATP Tour Finals with serve masterclass against Taylor Fritz

Matt Futterman

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What does Nick Kyrgios have in store for tennis?

While the best players in the world were duking it out in Turin last week, Nick Kyrgios announced that his on-court comeback is imminent.

Kyrgios hasn’t played competitively since reaching the 2022 U.S. Open quarterfinals because of serious knee and wrist injuries, but he has pencilled in a return to tennis at next month’s Brisbane International, one of the tune-up tournaments for the Australian Open. Kyrgios, 29, also intends to compete at his home Grand Slam in January.

“This is probably the best I’ve felt in two years,” Kyrgios said in an interview with Australian broadcaster 9News as he announced his comeback.

“It was a 15 percent chance that I was going to get back to playing at this level and here we are.

“To get back out there in front of the home fans is going to be sick.”

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Kyrgios, who also reached the Wimbledon final and won the men’s doubles at the Australian Open in 2022, may struggle to make a major impact straight away, but he could play a big part in Melbourne as a disruptor; no one will want to face him in front of his home fans in the early rounds.

Some of the wider tennis community will also have misgivings about his return. In early 2023, Kyrgios pleaded guilty to assaulting former girlfriend Chiara Passari in 2021, but was not convicted. In March this year, he suggested in a post on X that Sinner should be “gone for two years” following his two positive tests for clostebol, an anabolic steroid; in September 2024, Kyrgios was criticized for writing “second serve” under a picture of himself and Sinner’s girlfriend, top-20 WTA player Anna Kalinskaya.

Kyrgios, who has been praised for his analysis as a broadcaster for ESPN and the BBC at the Grand Slam tournaments during his lay-off — including interviewing WTA players on court in post-match interviews — was fined $10,000 in 2015 after on-court microphones picked up the Australian telling Stan Wawrinka that Thanasi Kokkinakis had “banged his girlfriend” during a Rogers Cup match in Montreal, Canada.

Kyrgios later apologized for the remark on Facebook, writing: “My comments were made in the heat of the moment and were unacceptable on many levels.”

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Charlie Eccleshare


Shot of the week

Viktoria Hruncakova slingshotting Slovakia into the last four in Malaga.


Recommended reading:


🏆 The winners of the week

🎾 ATP: 

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🏆 Jannik Sinner (1) def. Taylor Fritz (5) 6-4, 6-4 to win the ATP Tour Finals in Turin. It is the Italian’s eighth title of 2024.
🏆 Kevin Krawietz / Tim Puetz (8) def. Marcelo Arevalo / Mate Pavic (1) 7-6(5), 7-6(6) to win the ATP Tour Finals in Turin. It is the German pair’s third ATP title together.
🏆 Alexander Blockx def. Jurij Rodionov 6-3, 6-1 to win the Hyogo Noah Challenger (Challenger 100) in Kobe, Japan. It is the Belgian’s first ATP title.
🏆 Ethan Quinn def. Nishesh Basavareddy 6-3, 6-1 to win the Paine Schwartz Partners Challenger (Challenger 75) in Champaign, Il. It is the American’s first ATP title.


📈📉 On the rise / Down the line

📈 Fritz moves up one place to No. 4 in the world, a career-high ranking, while Casper Ruud moves up to No. 6 ahead of Novak Djokovic.
📈 Caroline Garcia benefits from compatriot Diane Parry dropping 56 ranking points, moving up one place and returning to the top 50.
📈 Blockx reaches a career-high of No. 204, up 45 places from No. 249.

📉 Daniil Medvedev falls one place from No. 4 to No. 5; Djokovic falls from No. 6 to No. 7.
📉 Harriet Dart drops out of the top 100, falling 13 places from No. 88 to No. 101.


📅 Coming up

🎾 ATP 

📍Malaga, Spain: Davis Cup featuring Rafael Nadal, Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Taylor Fritz.
📍Rovereto, Italy: Citta’ Di Rovereto (Challenger 100) featuring Borna Coric, Martin Landaluce, Luca Nardi, Dino Prizmic.
📍Montemar, Spain: Il Montemar (Challenger 75) featuring Fabio Fognini, Sumit Nagal, Pablo Carreno Busta, Albert Ramos-Vinolas.

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📺 UK: Sky Sports; U.S.: Tennis Channel 💻 Tennis TV, Challenger TV

🎾 WTA

📍Malaga, Spain: Billie Jean King Cup featuring Iga Swiatek, Emma Raducanu, Jasmine Paolini, Rebecca Sramkova.
📍Colina, Chile: LP Open (125) featuring Robin Montgomery, Mayar Sherif, Suzan Lamens, Chloe Paquet.
📍
Charleston, South Carolina: Fifth Third Charleston (125), featuring Renata Zarazua, Alycia Parks, Iva Jovic, Varvara Lepchenko.

💻 WTA Unlocked

Tell us what you noticed this week in the comments below as the men’s and women’s tours continue.

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(Top photo: Angel Martinez / Getty Images; Design: Eamonn Dalton)

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US soccer star Christian Pulisic nails Trump's dance move after goal

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US soccer star Christian Pulisic nails Trump's dance move after goal

U.S. men’s soccer star Christian Pulisic put a ball into the back of the net and then got in on the dance craze sweeping the sports world.

Pulisic and the Americans were playing Jamaica in a Concacaf Nations League matchup, and it didn’t take long for the striker to put the U.S. up. He flicked the ball over the Jamaican goalkeeper and into the back of the net for the first score.

United States’ Christian Pulisic (10) celebrates after scoring during the first half in a CONCACAF Nations League quarterfinal second leg soccer match against Jamaica Monday, Nov. 18, 2024, in St. Louis.  (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

He ran to the corner to celebrate the score and immediately was seen doing President-elect Donald Trump’s dance move.

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Pulisic scored again in the 33rd minute, and Ricardo Pepi put the U.S. up 3-0 in the 42nd minute. They had that lead at halftime. The U.S. had a 4-0 aggregate lead, and the three goals appeared to put the match out of reach for Jamaica.

Pulisic’s decision to pull off the dance move joined the line of professional athletes who did it over the weekend.

Team USA celebrates

United States’ Christian Pulisic, right, is congratulated by teammates after scoring during the first half in a CONCACAF Nations League quarterfinal second leg soccer match against Jamaica Monday, Nov. 18, 2024, in St. Louis.  (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

MEGAN RAPINOE ‘OVERWHELMED’ BY ANOTHER TRUMP PRESIDENCY, FEARFUL FOR THE TRANSGENDER COMMUNITY

Several NFL players and UFC stars showed their support for the president-elect over the weekend. Brock Powers, Calvin Ridley, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Za’Darius Smith and Malcolm Rodriguez all pulled it off.

At UFC 309, Trump was seated cageside as Jon Jones and Bo Nickal both showed support for him. Jones did the dance move after he knocked out Stipe Miocic. 

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He handed the heavyweight belt to Trump afterward. Nickal talked with Trump about golfing after his victory.

Donald Trump dances

President-elect Donald Trump arrives and dances at UFC 309 at Madison Square Garden, Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024, in New York, followed by Dana White.  (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

LPGA Tour star Charley Hull also appeared to do the move.

Follow Fox News Digital’s sports coverage on X and subscribe to the Fox News Sports Huddle newsletter.

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Lakers to honor Showtime-era coach Pat Riley with statue outside Crypto.com Arena

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Lakers to honor Showtime-era coach Pat Riley with statue outside Crypto.com Arena

Not much is known about the next statue the Lakers plan to have erected outside Crypto.com Arena.

But it is almost certain that sculpture will be well-dressed and have impeccable hair.

The team announced Monday that Showtime-era coach Pat Riley will be the next Lakers legend to be honored with a statue on Star Plaza outside the arena.

“Pat is a Lakers icon,” Lakers controlling owner Jeanie Buss said in a statement released Monday by the team. “His professionalism, commitment to his craft and game preparation paved the way for the coaching we see across the league today.”

Buss added that her father, Lakers owner Jerry Buss, “recognized Pat’s obsession and ability to take talented players and coalesce them into a championship team. The style of basketball Pat and the Lakers created in the 80s is still the blueprint for the organization today: an entertaining and winning team.”

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As an NBA player, Riley spent five of his 10 seasons with the Lakers, winning a championship with the organization in 1972. After retiring, Riley became an assistant coach with the Lakers in the 1979-80 season and was promoted to head coach after Paul Westhead was fired early in the 1981-82 season.

Known for his slicked-backed hair and Armani suits, Riley coached the Lakers to NBA titles in 1982, 1985, 1987 and 1988 before stepping down after the team lost to the Phoenix Suns in the 1990 Western Conference semifinals. He went on to win another NBA title as head coach and team president of the Miami Heat in 2006 and won two others in his executive role with the Heat in 2013 and 2014.

Riley will be joining three players that he coached with statues outside Crypto.com Arena — Magic Johnson and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, both members of the Showtime Lakers, and Shaquille O’Neal, who won a championship with Riley’s Heat in 2006. Riley’s former Lakers teammate Jerry West and broadcast partner Chick Hearn are also honored with sculptures in the plaza, as are Kobe Bryant and Elgin Baylor.

The Riley statue is scheduled to be completed in 2026.

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