Sports
March Madness upset picks: Bracket Breakers chooses its 10 most likely first-round stunners
Welcome back to Bracket Breakers! We know you’ve missed us, and we can’t wait to overwhelm you with our unique take on NCAA tournament upsets, powered by our proprietary statistical model, Slingshot. Hopefully, you’ve been following our work for years. But if you’re new to Bracket Breakers, here’s the most recent explanation of who we are, what we do and the state of Slingshot.
In the coming days, we will offer deep regional previews of every first-round matchup that qualifies as a Bracket Breaker game (meaning there must be a differential of at least five seeds). We’ll also provide upset probabilities for every potential second-round matchup on Wednesday. You won’t want to fill out a bracket or place a moneyline bet without checking out that piece!
But as you begin to digest the bracket, we wanted to provide a quick list of the 10 likeliest first-round upsets. We swear we don’t have anything against the Palmetto State — after all, Furman professors Liz Bouzarth, John Harris and Kevin Hutson provide the math behind Slingshot — but our model certainly isn’t bullish on the two power-conference teams from South Carolina.
GO DEEPER
March madness bracket prep: Capsule previews for all 68 teams, with strengths, weaknesses, outlooks and more
As always, Slingshot looks at teams separated by at least 5 seeds, estimates their basic strengths, adjusts those power ratings according to how closely each team fits the statistical profiles of past Davids or Goliaths, and then modifies them again to account for matchups. This year, we’ve upgraded our cluster analysis. And without further ado, the top results.
For more Underdogs, listen to Peter and Jordan’s podcast.
10 Most Likely First-Round Upsets
1. No. 6 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 11 New Mexico Lobos
Upset Chance: 57.8 percent
2. No. 6 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 11 Oregon Ducks
Upset Chance: 43.2 percent
3. No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 11 NC State Wolfpack
Upset Chance: 38.2 percent
4. No. 5 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 12 McNeese Cowboys
Upset Chance: 30.8 percent
5. No. 5 Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon Lopes
Upset Chance: 30.4 percent
6. No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 13 Samford Bulldogs
Upset Chance: 30.1 percent
7. No.5 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 12 UAB Blazers
Upset Chance: 27.8 percent
8. No. 6 BYU Cougars vs. No. 11 Duquesne Dukes
Upset Chance: 24.8 percent
9. No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 12 James Madison Dukes
Upset Chance: 24.4 percent
10. No. 3 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 14 Akron Zips
Upset Chance: 20.4 percent
Thanks to John Harris, Kevin Hutson and Liz Bouzarth of Furman University for research assistance.
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photo of New Mexico’s Jaelen House: Ian Maule / Getty Images; Photo of Grand Canyon’s Gabe McGlothan: Ian Maule / AP)
Sports
Stephen Bradley: ‘They put a gun to my head and stabbed me three times. That’s all I remember’
He was a teenager on the books at Arsenal when Stephen Bradley nearly died in late 2003.
“Within a minute of coming home, the door was getting kicked in. They put a gun to my head. One was saying: ‘Shoot him, shoot him.’ And the other stabbed me; three times. That’s all I remember.”
The surgeon who treated him at a London hospital told Bradley that if the 18-year-old hadn’t deflected the blade, he would have been stabbed through the brain.
Not long before he was attacked in his own home for the sake of an expensive watch on his wrist, he had been training with Arsene Wenger’s first team. It was 2003-04, the season Arsenal won the Premier League without losing a game.
This week Bradley, 40, returns to the city where he moved as a 15-year-old, now as the manager of one of Ireland’s most historic clubs, Shamrock Rovers. On Thursday they face Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, where Bradley first went on trial at the age of 10.
The UEFA Conference League game will be special for Bradley, and for plenty of his Rovers players who made that same journey to Premier League academies only to have their dreams dashed.
“I nearly died, but it’s one of the best things that happened to me,” Bradley tells The Athletic in his office at Rovers’ training ground in Tallaght, south-west of Dublin city centre. “I made bad decisions back then, and I paid for it. But it made me who I am today, as a person, and as a manager.”
Playing for Dublin schoolboy clubs Jobstown Celtic, Maryland Boys and Lourdes Celtic, by his early teens clubs in Ireland, England and across Europe were aware of Bradley’s talents.
His mother Bernadette fielded calls from many top Premier League managers, with one even visiting the family home in the working class Dublin suburb of Jobstown.
“My older brother’s friends were all Manchester United fans, and they couldn’t believe Sir Alex (Ferguson) had come to our door,” Bradley says. “Arsene Wenger and Gerard Houllier were also in regular contact with my mam. It’s incredible now, but at the time I was just a young lad in Jobstown, who happened to be good at football.”
Among the most persistent suitors were Chelsea, the club Bradley supported as a boy, and where he had that first trial aged 10.
“I was at Chelsea 10 or 15 times,” he says. “I went to a lot of tournaments with them, trained at Stamford Bridge with Gianfranco Zola, John Terry, Dennis Wise, Tore Andre Flo. I travelled with the team to the (1997) FA Cup final, against Middlesbrough, when (Roberto) Di Matteo scored in off the bar. I’ve really fond memories of Chelsea.”
At 15, Bradley decided to join Arsenal, where former Republic of Ireland midfielder Liam Brady headed the academy. Two years later he signed a pro-contract and was soon captain of an Arsenal reserve side that included David Bentley, Gael Clichy and Jeremie Aliadiere.
“I was asked to mould my game on Pablo Aimar,” Bradley recalls. “He came to Highbury with Valencia, he was top class. I remember a reserves game against Chelsea (in August 2003). I beat Winston Bogarde early on. He probably made me look like Pablo Aimar that day.”
During the Invincibles season of 2003-04, when Arsenal were unbeaten on their way to winning the Premier League title, Wenger called Bradley to train with the first team.
“At the start you get imposter syndrome,” he says. “My first few times training, I was nervous, couldn’t pass the ball. Senior players really helped, they demanded and pushed you — Tony Adams, Ray Parlour, Ashley Cole, Dennis Bergkamp. Martin Keown was incredible.
“One day at training, I turned out, and Patrick Vieira could have absolutely smashed me. He pulled me afterwards and explained: ‘If you do that in a game, you’ll get hurt.’ He gave me different ways of turning, looking, maneuvering the ball, so that situation didn’t happen again. I had loads of those conversations.”
But Bradley never played a first-team game for Arsenal. Even younger midfielders Cesc Fabregas and his former housemate Sebastian Larsson moved ahead of him.
“To be fair, I stopped working, took my foot right off the gas,” Bradley says. “In your head you’ve made it, you’re training with these boys, earning a lot of money, taking for granted the facilities, the coaches, the environment. Liam (Brady) pulled me aside and said: ‘Look, you need to get going here.’ Pat Rice (did the same), Wenger himself too.
“Football is ruthless, especially at that level. Straight away you could see how special Fabregas was. It’s too late then, at a club like Arsenal. You think you’re getting away with things, but you’re not.”
The incident that changed Bradley’s life came in late 2003. Having been advised to buy an expensive watch as an investment, he started wearing it on nights out around London.
“You get caught up in that lifestyle,” Bradley says. “And the wrong people noticed. I went out for dinner with some team-mates. Within a minute of coming home, the door was getting kicked in. They put a gun to my head. One was saying: ‘Shoot him, shoot him.’ And the other stabbed me; three times. That’s all I remember.”
Bradley was left unconscious on the floor of his house. Fortunately, his team-mates Larsson, Stephen O’Donnell and Patrick Cregg soon arrived, and he was rushed to hospital.
“The surgeon said with the blood I was losing, I’d not have made it if they had not been there,” Bradley says. “He said: ‘You were millimetres away from the knife piercing your brain, which would have killed you. When you defended yourself, the knife went around, rather than down. They must have been kicking you when you were out cold.’
“I had two broken ribs on each side. The watch was gone.”
Before the attack, it was already clear that Bradley would leave Arsenal. A potential move to Fulham was now off. Instead it was back to Dublin.
“Arsenal did help me,” he says. “Liam helped me. But I was angry at football, angry at everyone. I could play no physical football for almost a year. I knew I needed to be home, around my mam and my family. I really had to do some soul-searching and find myself again.”
Once Bradley was physically ready, Brady helped organise a summer 2004 move to the Scottish team Dunfermline. He soon returned to Ireland at Drogheda United, winning the 2005 FAI Cup and 2007 Premier Division title.
The real homecoming came in March 2009, when Bradley joined Shamrock Rovers. Four years after the club almost disappeared completely until 400 fans dipped into their own wallets to save it, Rovers were opening a new stadium in Tallaght, just a 10-minute walk from his family home.
“You could feel the energy that night was different,” Bradley recalls. “People had been waiting so long; had fought so much.”
Bradley played 63 games over two years at Rovers, including two Europa League qualifying legs against Juventus in summer 2010. After spells with St Patrick’s Athletic and Limerick, he retired aged just 28, having already decided his future was in management.
“I felt I’d never reach my potential as a player,” he says. “And I was at peace with that. While I was still playing, I took notes on everything — training, team talks, opposition teams, even Champions Leagues games and international tournaments.”
Initially, he combined a youth-coach job at Rovers with scouting for Arsenal, working with Steve Rowley, Brian McDermott and Francis Cagigao, writing detailed reports on potential signings.
“I had an influence on signings like Granit Xhaka, Gabriel (Magalhaes) and (Gabriel) Martinelli.” Bradley says. “I also liked (Wilfred) Ndidi, (Manuel) Akanji and (Nathan) Ake. I really liked (Virgil) van Dijk when he was at Celtic, but they weren’t sure how quick he was.”
Arsenal talked to Bradley about a more senior European scouting role, but accepted his departure to become Rovers’ manager in July 2016, at the age of 31. The club had a new stadium but no training ground, and most of their players were still part-time. Along with new sporting director Stephen McPhail, the former Leeds midfielder, Bradley set out to “change the whole mentality, from boardroom level down”.
In 2019, Bradley guided Rovers to a first FAI Cup win since 1987, winning a penalty shoot-out after a 1-1 draw with Dundalk. Rovers’ goalscorer in normal time was Aaron McEneff, who had been at Tottenham as a teenager. Scorers in the shoot-out included Jack Byrne, who starred for Manchester City Under-18s but never reached the Premier League, and Gary O’Neill, who had been at Wolves, Port Vale, Southport and Hereford before returning to Ireland.
“Irish players were going to England too young,” Bradley says. “And most were coming home broken, hating football. I know — I was one of them. I remember saying: ‘When I’m a manager that’ll be my number one thing.’ If you fixed the person, you’d get the player.”
In 2020, Rovers won their 18th league title, beginning a ‘four in a row’ run matching their historic achievement in the 1980s. Among the players to have contributed are current Ireland senior internationals Liam Scales, now of Celtic, and Gavin Bazunu, now at Southampton and the most high-profile graduate of Rovers’ new academy at Kingswood.
“When I was growing up, five minutes’ drive from here, you played schoolboys’ football, then you went to England,” Bradley says. “Now you can progress here from seven years of age to the first team. We’ve had players who turned down moves to England when they were young, trusted us and came here.”
In June 2022, Bradley’s son Josh, then eight years old, was diagnosed with acute lymphocytic leukemia. The next home game was a 1-0 victory over city rivals Bohemians.
“I remember telling the players beforehand that what we’re doing is bigger than 90 minutes,” Bradley says. “I looked around the dressing room and five or six people were crying. I was crying. But the players really appreciated me being so open with them.
“They were incredible that night. Josh came into the dressing room afterwards. They all gave him a hug. It was a special moment.”
Often Bradley would manage the team in the evening, then the following morning bring his son for chemotherapy at Crumlin hospital in Dublin.
When Rovers won the LOI title in October 2022, Josh left hospital to help captain Ronan Finn lift the trophy.
One of the best Irish sporting moments of 2022. Josh Bradley – who was diagnosed with leukaemia in June – lifts the League of Ireland trophy alongside his dad and the triumphant Shamrock Rovers squad. 💚pic.twitter.com/7cDx6RtWfL
— Balls.ie (@ballsdotie) October 30, 2022
“The hospital didn’t think Josh’d be able to leave the bed, but he wanted to go that night,” Bradley says. “Those moments, that 5-10 minutes of relief, made it all worthwhile.
“Right now he’s doing great. When he’s not in treatment, he’s back playing football with his friends. A lot of families put their life on hold for two or three years (after a cancer diagnosis). But we were adamant that was not going to be the case. Hopefully we only have a few more months of the treatment, and then we’re finished.”
Firmly established as Ireland’s strongest team, Rovers’ next challenge was Europe.
They reached the 2022-23 Europa League group stage, but managed only two points from six games. Last season’s campaign ended early after a 6-0 aggregate play-off defeat by Hungary’s Ferencvaros.
This summer they beat Vikingur Reykjavik in the Champions League qualifiers, then fell to Sparta Prague. In the Europa League they eliminated Slovenians NK Celje 3-2, but lost against PAOK Salonika. That still meant qualification for the Conference League group stages.
Another challenge is the League of Ireland season running from February to November. A focus on Europe contributed to Rovers losing this year’s title race to fellow Dublin side Shelbourne, who are managed by the former Blackburn Rovers, Chelsea and Newcastle United winger Damien Duff.
In the Conference League table, an opening draw in Tallaght with APOEL Nicosia was followed by wins over Northern Ireland’s Larne FC and New Saints of Wales. Then there was a gritty draw at Rapid Vienna and last week’s emphatic 3-0 win against the Bosnian champions Borac Banja Luka. That meant an Irish team qualified from a European competition group stage for the first time.
“We’ve been off for a month competitively, but the players’ mindset and attitude has been brilliant,” Bradley says. “Maybe I didn’t think we’d get 11 points by now, but our aim was to qualify for the knockout stages. We’ve gone and done that, which is fantastic.”
Many Rovers players had mixed experiences in England. Midfielder Dylan Watts joined Rovers on a free transfer from Leicester City. Centre-back Daniel Cleary was at Liverpool as a teenager. Bradley has blended them in his squad with international signings, such as Estonian international midfielder Markus Poom — son of former Derby County, Sunderland and Arsenal goalkeeper Mart — and German ‘keeper Leon Pohls.
The star against Borac was 21-year-old striker Johnny Kenny, who scored two to make it five goals in five games in the Conference League, and 20 in 38 games this season. Kenny is on loan from Celtic, where he has struggled to make an impact since joining aged 18.
Cool. Calm. Composed. 🌟#RoversInEurope pic.twitter.com/2Hgtoi4YsE
— Shamrock Rovers FC (@ShamrockRovers) December 14, 2024
“When Johnny came in here, he was in a really tough, dark place,” Bradley says. “I remember thinking: ‘I can see myself in him; he needs help as a person.’ Now you are seeing his ability. It was about getting him into an environment and a culture where he feels safe and happy.”
Thursday’s game at Chelsea is a huge occasion for everyone at Rovers. Among their 3,000 supporters at Stamford Bridge will be many of the 400 whose personal contributions saved the club in 2005. A mixed ownership model now sees businessmen Ray Wilson and Dermot Desmond (also a Celtic shareholder) owning 25 per cent each.
This season’s European exploits will earn Rovers more than €7million — a huge windfall by League of Ireland standards. However last season saw €2.3m losses after exiting Europe early, meaning shareholders had to fund operating costs at the beginning of this year.
Bradley wants to see “alignment” between the fans’ representatives and wealthy shareholders, to ensure the club keeps investing in players and facilities. He does not hide his own personal future ambitions, while also remembering the debt he and his family owe Rovers and their supporters.
“I owe these fans so much,” he says. “We have to keep pushing and getting better every year, on and off the pitch. I’d like to manage at the highest level and really test myself.
“But Josh’s treatment is number one. After that, what will be will be.”
(Getty Images)
Sports
Sammy Sosa admits to making 'mistakes' amid steroid speculation, apologizes to estranged Cubs
Sammy Sosa had not been invited back to Wrigley Field, or anything Cubs-related, since he retired in 2007, but all that has changed.
It has long been speculated that Sosa took performance-enhancing drugs during his career, most notably during his home run binge in the late ’90s.
Cubs ownership has long said Sosa would need to apologize and all but admit to taking steroids for the relationship to be mended.
On Wednesday, as the Cubs announced a festival for fans, Sosa admitted he “made mistakes.”
“I left it all on the field for the Cubs and Cubs fans because I wanted to win and make the fans happy. I loved to see the fans at Wrigley in the Right Field Bleachers every home game,” Sosa said in a letter. “I understand why some players in my era don’t always get the recognition that our stats deserve. There were times I did whatever I could to recover from injuries in an effort to keep my strength up to perform over 162 games. I never broke any laws, but in hindsight, I made mistakes and I apologize.
“We accomplished great things as a team, and I worked extremely hard in the batting cage to become a great hitter. Cubs’ fans are the best in the world, and I hope that fans, the Cubs and I can all come together again and move forward. We can’t change the past, but the future is bright. In my heart, I have always been a Cub and I can’t wait to see Cubs fans again.”
The letter was enough for Sosa to be invited to the 2025 Cubs Convention, owner Tom Ricketts said in a statement.
“We appreciate Sammy releasing his statement and for reaching out. No one played harder or wanted to win more. Nobody’s perfect, but we never doubted his passion for the game and the Cubs,” Ricketts said. “It is an understatement to say that Sammy is a fan favorite. We plan on inviting him to the 2025 Cubs Convention and, while it is short notice, we hope that he can attend. We are all ready to move forward together.”
Sosa is the only player in MLB history to hit at least 60 home runs in three separate seasons. He retired with 609 in his career, which ranks him ninth all time, but PED speculation has kept him out of Cooperstown.
Earlier this year, Sosa walked out of a media session when he was asked about his suspected PED use. He was in Chicago for a memorabilia event, and it was his first time in the Windy City since his career ended.
Sosa is largely credited with bringing baseball back to life with his own personal home run derby with Mark McGwire in 1998 as they both chased, and shattered, Roger Maris‘ record of 61 homers in a season. McGwire hit 70, and Sosa hit 66. Sosa even swore under oath he did not take PEDs.
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Sports
High school basketball: Wednesday's scores from boys' and girls' games
HIGH SCHOOL BASKETBALL
WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS
BOYS
Alhambra 52, L.A. Wilson 44
Arbor View 49, Rancho Verde 54
Arleta 55, Garfield 47
Bishop Gorman (Las Vegas) 72, Westchester 60
California School for the Deaf 69, Sherman Indian 45
Capistrano Valley Christian 79, Coral Academy of Science Las Vegas 45
Cathedral 68, Compton 61
Chaparral 79, Carter 51
Chino 80, Bourgade Catholic (Phoenix) 61
Cimarron-Memorial (Las Vegas) 66, Birmingham 64
Cleveland 76, YULA 63
Colton 50, Tahquitz 37
Coral Glades (Florida) 71, St. Paul 61
Corona 68, Lakeside 38
Corona Santiago 74, Centennial (Boise) 71
Crossroads 73, St. Brendan (Miami) 68
Eastvale Roosevelt 79, St. Augustine 36
Edison 61, Fountain Valley 54
Fontana 64, Riverside Notre Dame 49
Foothill Tech 70, Fillmore 56
Gabrielino 87, Pasadena Marshall 17
Garey 79, Pomona 26
Glenn 49, Legacy College Prep 42
Golden Valley 76, Vasquez 53
Great Oak 82, Elsinore 42
Irvine 67, Godinez 30
L.A. Hamilton 83, Bravo 41
Laguna Hills 53, Garden Grove 39
Lawndale 99, Hawthorne 54
Lincoln 68, Gertz-Ressler 13
Los Alamitos 65, Huntington Beach 49
Mary Star of the Sea 58, Western 49
Mojave (Las Vegas) 71, Pasadena 58
Newport Harbor 60, Marina 43
Palm Springs 47, Murrieta Mesa 46
Payson (Utah) 67, El Rancho 59
Quartz Hill 73, Palmdale 34
Redondo Union 88, Rainer Beach (Seattle) 74
Riviera Prep 64, St. Pius X-St. Matthias Academy 55
Rubidoux 67, Jurupa Hills 60
Santa Ana Calvary Chapel 55, Riverside King 54
Santa Rosa Academy 105, St. Jeanne de Lestonnac 46
Sherman Oaks Notre Dame 80, Basha (Arizona) 63
Sierra Vista 71, North Hollywood 62
Smoky Hill (Colorado) 71, Bellflower 47
Sotomayor 62, Math & Science College Prep 52
South Torrance 69, West Torrance 57
St. Monica 74, Animo Venice 25
Summit Leadership 66, Mojave 9
Temecula Prep 76, San Jacinto Valley Academy 34
Temecula Valley 85, Prestonwood Christian (Texas) 59
Temple City 48, South Hills 35
Torrance 53, El Segundo 43
Triumph Charter 52, Wilmington Banning 42
Valley Torah 61, Trinity Classical Academy 51
Viewpoint 61, Upland 43
WISH Academy 47, Harbor Teacher 31
GIRLS
Alta (Utah) 69, El Rancho 50
Anaheim 51, Santa Ana 46
Arroyo 44, El Monte 23
Arroyo Valley 23, Kaiser 22
Bethel Christian 40, Crossroads Christian 12
Birmingham 65, Mt, Diablo 60
Bishop McNamara (Maryland) 70, Sage Hill 44
California School for the Deaf Riverside 51, Sherman Indian 37
Canyon View Prep Academy (Arizona) 69, Canyon Country Canyon 42
Carson 48, La Palma Kennedy 45
Chaparral 54, Escondido Charter 46
Compton Dominguez 53, Compton 50
Corona Santiago 58, Temescal Canyon 35
Crossroads 79, San Fernando 61
Denver East (Colorado) 49, JSerra 26
Flintridge Prep 71, Westridge 13
Fontana 49, Jurupa Hills 21
Gardena 47, Bravo 47
Gardena Serra 52, Wilmington Banning 29
Garey 43, Don Lugo 27
Godinez 50, Walnut 33
Grand Terrace 60, Colton 52
Hamilton (Arizona) 53, Villa Park 37
Heritage Christian 62, Viewpoint 53
Highland (Arizona) 58, Huntington Beach 34
Highland 6, Lancaster 40
Knight 69, Littlerock 18
La Habra 47, South Hills 36
Lakewood St. Joseph 67, Mountain View 39
Mesquite (Arizona) 79, St. Anthony 37
Rancho Christian 84, Great Oak 34
Ramona 47, Bloomington 9
Rangeview (Colorado) 57, Valley View 24
Redondo Union 68, Peninsula 32
Riverside King 56, San Jacinto 35
Rosemead 52, Mountain View 5
Rowland 61, Nogales 14
San Dimas 70, Azusa 9
Santa Ana Mater Dei 59, Christ the King (New York) 49
Santa Paula 50, Foothill Tech 33
Serrano 42, Redlands East Valley 40
South East 40, Bernstein 24
South Torrance 49, Wiseburn-Da Vinci 23
Temecula Prep 38, San Jacinto Valley Academy 29
Torres 60, Esperanza College Prep 0
Valley Vista 57, Orange Lutheran 45
Venice 55, Mary Star of the Sea 15
Westchester 35, Payson (Utah) 31
West (Salt Lake City) 72, Esperanza 59
Whitney 70, El Segundo 31
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