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March Madness upset picks: Bracket Breakers chooses its 10 most likely first-round stunners

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March Madness upset picks: Bracket Breakers chooses its 10 most likely first-round stunners

Welcome back to Bracket Breakers! We know you’ve missed us, and we can’t wait to overwhelm you with our unique take on NCAA tournament upsets, powered by our proprietary statistical model, Slingshot. Hopefully, you’ve been following our work for years. But if you’re new to Bracket Breakers, here’s the most recent explanation of who we are, what we do and the state of Slingshot.

In the coming days, we will offer deep regional previews of every first-round matchup that qualifies as a Bracket Breaker game (meaning there must be a differential of at least five seeds). We’ll also provide upset probabilities for every potential second-round matchup on Wednesday. You won’t want to fill out a bracket or place a moneyline bet without checking out that piece!

But as you begin to digest the bracket, we wanted to provide a quick list of the 10 likeliest first-round upsets. We swear we don’t have anything against the Palmetto State — after all, Furman professors Liz Bouzarth, John Harris and Kevin Hutson provide the math behind Slingshot — but our model certainly isn’t bullish on the two power-conference teams from South Carolina.

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March madness bracket prep: Capsule previews for all 68 teams, with strengths, weaknesses, outlooks and more

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As always, Slingshot looks at teams separated by at least 5 seeds, estimates their basic strengths, adjusts those power ratings according to how closely each team fits the statistical profiles of past Davids or Goliaths, and then modifies them again to account for matchups. This year, we’ve upgraded our cluster analysis. And without further ado, the top results.

For more Underdogs, listen to Peter and Jordan’s podcast. 

10 Most Likely First-Round Upsets

1. No. 6 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 11 New Mexico Lobos

Upset Chance: 57.8 percent

2. No. 6 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 11 Oregon Ducks

Upset Chance: 43.2 percent

3. No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 11 NC State Wolfpack

Upset Chance: 38.2 percent

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4. No. 5 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 12 McNeese Cowboys

Upset Chance: 30.8 percent

5. No. 5 Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon Lopes

Upset Chance: 30.4 percent

6. No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 13 Samford Bulldogs

Upset Chance: 30.1 percent

7. No.5 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 12 UAB Blazers

Upset Chance: 27.8 percent

8. No. 6 BYU Cougars vs. No. 11 Duquesne Dukes

Upset Chance: 24.8 percent

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9. No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 12 James Madison Dukes

Upset Chance: 24.4 percent

10. No. 3 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 14 Akron Zips

Upset Chance: 20.4 percent

Thanks to John Harris, Kevin Hutson and Liz Bouzarth of Furman University for research assistance.

(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photo of New Mexico’s Jaelen House: Ian Maule / Getty Images; Photo of Grand Canyon’s Gabe McGlothan: Ian Maule / AP)

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Tennessee softball escapes WCWS elimination game with win over UCLA despite controversial game-tying homer

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Tennessee softball escapes WCWS elimination game with win over UCLA despite controversial game-tying homer

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Controversy struck the Women’s College World Series (WCWS) during an elimination game between UCLA and Tennessee on Sunday.

Bruins first baseman Megan Grant came up to the plate with two outs and a runner on first and crushed a pitch off Volunteers pitcher Karlyn Pickens to tie the game, or so everyone thought.

Tennessee bats are shown up before the game against UCLA in the Women’s College World Series, June 1, 2025, in Oklahoma City, Okla. (Brett Rojo/Imagn Images)

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Grant rounded third and headed for home to celebrate with her teammates. She didn’t appear to touch home plate and a teammate needed to bring her back to make sure she did. 

Tennessee challenged the run and umpires reviewed it to see whether she touched home plate and whether she was “assisted” back to make sure she definitely made contact with it. College softball rules specify that a runner cannot be physically assisted by a teammate to touch the plate.

“After review, the call on the field is upheld and the run will score,” the umpire announced. “The runner did miss home plate and was assisted. However, that play is not reviewable, according to Appendix G.”

Appendix G in the NCAA softball rulebook determines what is reviewable.

TRAILER FOR ‘COLLEGE FOOTBALL 26’ RELEASED, WITH GAME TO INCLUDE REAL-LIFE COACHES

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Lady Vols huddle

Tennessee huddles before the Women’s College World Series softball game on Sunday. (SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

It was a huge break for the Bruins as they were able to extend the game.

Tennessee came up in the bottom of the ninth and pushed one run across the plate to win the game, 5-4. Infielder Laura Mealer singled home Taylor Pannell to win it.

The Volunteers now move onto the next round and UCLA goes home. Tennessee faces Texas in the semifinals on Monday. They need to beat the Longhorns twice to move to the championship.

UCLA’s Sofia Mujica and Alexis Ramirez each hit home runs for the Bruins in the loss.

UCLA catcher misses the tag

Tennessee’s McKenna Gibson slides home as UCLA’s Alexis Ramirez attempts the tag in the first inning of Sunday’s game. (SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

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Pickens pitched all nine innings for the Volunteers and struck out seven batters.

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USC blown out by Oregon State, setting up regional final rematch on Monday

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USC blown out by Oregon State, setting up regional final rematch on Monday

USC baseball wanted to be aggressive knowing it was entering a hostile environment, playing in front of a sold-out crowd of 4,347 at Goss Stadium.

The Trojans tried to set the tone early.

Instead, it backfired, costing them early opportunities, early momentum and ultimately Sunday night’s matchup in a 14-1 loss to Oregon State in the Corvallis Regional final.

USC opened with two hard hits. Brayden Dowd singled and Ethan Hedges followed with a rocket to right-center field that came off the bat at 104 mph. It one-hopped the wall for an easy double that could have set the Trojans up with two runners in scoring position and no outs. But USC third base coach Travis Jewett was spinning his arm almost immediately, sending Dowd home.

Oregon State pitcher Kellan Oakes celebrates after striking out a batter to leave the bases loaded Sunday.

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(Shotgun Spratling / For The Times)

Shortstop Aiva Arquette, an expected top 10 pick in next month’s MLB draft, fired a throw home that brought catcher Wilson Weber into the baseline where he applied the tag to Dowd while his knee collided with the head of the Trojans’ outfielder.

The play invigorated the home crowd and set the tone for the beatdown to follow that saw the No. 8 national seed Beavers thoroughly outplay the Trojans despite playing its second game of the day facing elimination. Oregon State pummeled Saint Mary’s, 20-3, Sunday afternoon to reach the final.

The next half inning, Oregon State attacked USC with four bunts that helped generate four runs. The Trojans’ aggressiveness again bit them.

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Oregon State's Wilson Weber, left, scores a run as USC third baseman Ethan Hedges misplays a bunt.

Oregon State’s Wilson Weber, left, scores a run as USC third baseman Ethan Hedges misplays a bunt Sunday.

(Shotgun Spratling / For The Times)

After they took the out at first on an initial sacrifice attempt, the Trojans twice tried to cut down runners at home with ill-fated results. Third baseman Hedges muffed a barehand attempt when the ball bounced with funky spin on a hard bunt that one-hopped. The Beavers bunted again on the next pitch. First baseman Adrian Lopez tried to come home and was too late.

A base hit through the middle scored the next run before Oregon State went back to the bunt to score the fourth run, prompting the crowd to start chanting “Small Ball! Small Ball! Small Ball!”

Oregon State added two runs in the third inning to take a 6-1 lead. USC had a huge opportunity to get back in the game in the fifth inning, loading the bases with no outs and the heart of the lineup due up.

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But the Beavers’ pitching staff had USC’s 3-4-5 hitters in a blender all night. Starter Wyatt Queen struck out Bryce Martin-Grudzielanek for the third time before turning the ball over to reliever Kellan Oakes, who struck out Lopez and Abbrie Covarrubias to escape the jam unscathed.

USC coach Andy Stankiewicz walks back to the dugout during a 14-1 loss to Oregon State.

USC coach Andy Stankiewicz walks back to the dugout during a 14-1 loss to Oregon State on Sunday.

(Shotgun Spratling / For The Times)

Oregon State then piled on runs against the lesser-used arms in USC’s bullpen, scoring three runs in the sixth on Trent Caraway’s fourth home run in as many games.

USC has a chance for redemption Monday as Oregon State’s win forces a winner-take-all regional final at 3 p.m. PDT (ESPNU).

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Tyrese Haliburton dunks on Ben Stiller after Pacers clinch NBA Finals berth with win over Knicks

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Tyrese Haliburton dunks on Ben Stiller after Pacers clinch NBA Finals berth with win over Knicks

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Tyrese Haliburton got the last laugh on Saturday night as he fired back at New York Knicks fan Ben Stiller on social media following Indiana’s Eastern Conference Finals victory.

Haliburton had 21 points, 13 assists and three steals as the Pacers won Game 6, 125-108. Pascal Siakam led Indiana with 31 points and Obi Toppin had 18 points off the bench.

Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton holds up the trophy after the Pacers won Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the New York Knicks in Indianapolis, Saturday, May 31, 2025. (AP Photo/AJ Mast)

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Haliburton and his other Pacers teammates entered the Gainbridge Fieldhouse wearing all black, alluding to having a funeral for the Knicks and the series. He carried a black duffel bag with him as he walked through the arena’s corridor. Stiller had some words on X.

“Good thing he brought his duffel for the flight to NY,” he wrote.

After the game, Haliburton fired back.

“Nah, was to pack y’all up,” Haliburton wrote.

It will be the first time the Pacers will compete in the NBA Finals since 2000, when the Reggie Miller and Rik Smits-led team ran into the Los Angeles Lakers. The franchise has never won an NBA championship, but had three American Basketball Association titles before the merger.

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Ben Stiller in Indiana

Ben Stiller, right, and Timothée Chalamet attend Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Indiana Pacers and the New York Knicks in Indianapolis, Tuesday, May 27, 2025. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

2025 NBA CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: THUNDER FAVORED IN TILT WITH PACERS

Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle knows there’s still a major challenge ahead.

“This is no time to be popping champagne,” he said. “When you get to this point of the season, it’s two teams and it’s one goal. So it becomes an all or nothing thing and we understand the magnitude of it.”

Tyrese Haliburton celebrates

Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton, left, celebrates with his father, John Haliburton, after winning Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the New York Knicks in Indianapolis, Saturday, May 31, 2025. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

The Pacers will meet the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Finals, starting on Thursday. The Thunder were the best team in the NBA all season long. Oklahoma City defeated Indiana in both matchups during the regular season.

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The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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