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March Madness upset picks: Bracket Breakers chooses its 10 most likely first-round stunners

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March Madness upset picks: Bracket Breakers chooses its 10 most likely first-round stunners

Welcome back to Bracket Breakers! We know you’ve missed us, and we can’t wait to overwhelm you with our unique take on NCAA tournament upsets, powered by our proprietary statistical model, Slingshot. Hopefully, you’ve been following our work for years. But if you’re new to Bracket Breakers, here’s the most recent explanation of who we are, what we do and the state of Slingshot.

In the coming days, we will offer deep regional previews of every first-round matchup that qualifies as a Bracket Breaker game (meaning there must be a differential of at least five seeds). We’ll also provide upset probabilities for every potential second-round matchup on Wednesday. You won’t want to fill out a bracket or place a moneyline bet without checking out that piece!

But as you begin to digest the bracket, we wanted to provide a quick list of the 10 likeliest first-round upsets. We swear we don’t have anything against the Palmetto State — after all, Furman professors Liz Bouzarth, John Harris and Kevin Hutson provide the math behind Slingshot — but our model certainly isn’t bullish on the two power-conference teams from South Carolina.

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March madness bracket prep: Capsule previews for all 68 teams, with strengths, weaknesses, outlooks and more

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As always, Slingshot looks at teams separated by at least 5 seeds, estimates their basic strengths, adjusts those power ratings according to how closely each team fits the statistical profiles of past Davids or Goliaths, and then modifies them again to account for matchups. This year, we’ve upgraded our cluster analysis. And without further ado, the top results.

For more Underdogs, listen to Peter and Jordan’s podcast. 

10 Most Likely First-Round Upsets

1. No. 6 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 11 New Mexico Lobos

Upset Chance: 57.8 percent

2. No. 6 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 11 Oregon Ducks

Upset Chance: 43.2 percent

3. No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 11 NC State Wolfpack

Upset Chance: 38.2 percent

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4. No. 5 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 12 McNeese Cowboys

Upset Chance: 30.8 percent

5. No. 5 Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon Lopes

Upset Chance: 30.4 percent

6. No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 13 Samford Bulldogs

Upset Chance: 30.1 percent

7. No.5 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 12 UAB Blazers

Upset Chance: 27.8 percent

8. No. 6 BYU Cougars vs. No. 11 Duquesne Dukes

Upset Chance: 24.8 percent

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9. No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 12 James Madison Dukes

Upset Chance: 24.4 percent

10. No. 3 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 14 Akron Zips

Upset Chance: 20.4 percent

Thanks to John Harris, Kevin Hutson and Liz Bouzarth of Furman University for research assistance.

(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photo of New Mexico’s Jaelen House: Ian Maule / Getty Images; Photo of Grand Canyon’s Gabe McGlothan: Ian Maule / AP)

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South Carolina legend Steve Taneyhill, known for iconic ‘home run’ touchdown celebration, dead at 52

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South Carolina legend Steve Taneyhill, known for iconic ‘home run’ touchdown celebration, dead at 52

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Former South Carolina quarterback Steve Taneyhill, who played for the Gamecocks from 1992-95, has died at 52.

The Gamecocks athletic department confirmed on Monday that Taneyhill died overnight in his sleep, though no cause of death was provided.

“Taneyhill was inducted into the University of South Carolina Athletics Hall of Fame in 2006,” the Gamecocks said in a statement about his death. “He was named Freshman of the Year by Sports Illustrated and Football News Freshman All-America in 1992.

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USC Steve Taneyhill taunts Clemson fans after USC beat Clemson 24-13 at Clemson in 1992. (Tim Dominick/The State/Tribune News Service)

“An exciting player, Taneyhill was known for his iconic mullet hair and his ‘home run swing’ after touchdown passes.”

Taneyhill led the Gamecocks to its first-ever bowl victory in program history in 1994, his junior season at South Carolina. They defeated West Virginia in the Carquest Bowl.

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And when Taneyhill threw touchdowns, he would perform his famous “home run swing,” as the statement read, in celebration.

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A native of Altoona, Pennsylvania, Taneyhill notched South Carolina records with 753 completions and 62 passing touchdowns over his four seasons. He also was second with 8,782 passing yards and seventh with a 60.5 completion rate.

Taneyhill’s senior season in 1995 saw him lead the SEC in completions (261), pass attempts (389) and completion percentage (67.1) on his way to 3,094 passing yards with 29 touchdowns and nine interceptions.

Quarterback Steve Taneyhill of South Carolina University drops back to pass during a 42-23 loss to the University of Georgia at Sanford Stadium in Athens, Georgia on Sept. 2 1995.  (Jamie Squire/Allsport)

For his performance as a Gamecocks star, Taneyhill was later inducted into the South Carolina Athletics Hall of Fame in 2006.

To this day, Taneyhill is responsible for three of the to four highest-passing-yardage games in school history, including a 471-yard day against Mississippi State in 1995.

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Taneyhill was never able to break into the NFL, though, joining the Jacksonville Jaguars as an undrafted free agent in 1997. However, he was released during the preseason and never once played in the league.

He later became a high school football coach, leading his Chesterfield High to the South Carolina state title for three straight seasons in 2007-09.

Steve Taneyhill , Quarterback for the University of South Carolina Gamecocks throws a pass downfield during the NCAA Southeastern Conference college football game against the University of Georgia Bulldogs on Sept. 2,1995 at the Sanford Stadium in Athens, Georgia, United States. (Jamie Squire/Allsport)

South Carolina’s statement said that he also purchased and operated businesses in Columbia and Spartanburg, South Carolina after his coaching days were over.

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Marc Dos Santos knows LAFC fans expect more than a winner. He’s embracing that pressure

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Marc Dos Santos knows LAFC fans expect more than a winner. He’s embracing that pressure

Moments after Marc Dos Santos was formally introduced as the third head coach in LAFC history, he was led out of a news conference and onto the field at BMO Stadium to meet the most important constituency he’ll have to win over in his new job.

The fans.

Since the club entered MLS in 2018, no team has won more games, scored more goals, earned more points or won more trophies than LAFC. Yet as Dos Santos, a top assistant for five of those eight seasons, was hugging and mugging with some of the people who are soon to become his fiercest critics, another supporter approached general manager John Thorrington with a question.

“How do you separate [him] being a part of that coaching staff and telling the fans ‘look, it’s going to be different with this person?’” he asked.

If Dos Santos had been uncertain about the job description, that question made things clear: being the best is no longer good enough. He will have to be better than that.

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And Dos Santos is not just fine with that, he’s embracing it.

“I knew the pressure,” he said. “You live once. You live scared, buy a Doberman or something, right? It’s a great opportunity. But I think it’s a privilege when you coach a team in Los Angeles.

“Every sport here is pressure. Every team here is win, win. It’s a winning city and the culture of the city. So I understand that.”

Oh, did we also mention that just winning isn’t enough? For LAFC’s famously demanding supporters, how you win is almost as important.

“We have to win and we have to entertain,” Thorrington said. “We’ve done a lot of that over the years. But we have to drill down on that.”

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That means attacking, staying on the front foot, being aggressive, relentless and tireless. Also no problem for Dos Santos, since that’s exactly the kind of soccer he likes to play.

“My style is the LAFC style,” he said. “What we want to be is consistent in our intensity. That’s not negotiable, our intensity.”

So far Dos Santos is saying all the right words and hugging all the right people, but his first test on the field won’t come until mid-February, when LAFC begins play in the CONCACAF Champions Cup in Honduras, followed by its MLS opener in the Coliseum against Lionel Messi and league champion Inter Miami.

And Dos Santos has some oversized cleats to fill.

In its first four seasons under Bob Bradley, LAFC made three playoffs appearances, won a Supporters’ Shield, played in the CONCACAF Champions League final and broke the MLS record for most points in a season. The team was even better the last four seasons under Steve Cherundolo, winning a second Supporters’ Shield and a U.S. Open Cup, playing in a second Champions League final and reaching two MLS Cup finals, winning one.

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Dos Santos, 48, was a big part of all that, helping Bradley set the tone as part of the coaching staff in LAFC’s first season, then assisting Cherundolo the last four years. In between, he spent 2½ seasons managing a Vancouver Whitecaps team that lost more games than it won.

Marc Dos Santos watches a match between the Vancouver Whitecaps and Toronto FC in April 2021.

(Phelan M. Ebenhack / Associated Press)

There were extenuating circumstances, however, such as the COVID-19 pandemic that forced the Whitecaps to split one season between sequesters in Canada and Portland, Ore., then start the next season quarantined in Utah. But Dos Santos says the bruises he received there made him a better coach and a better person.

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“If I was a GM, I would never try to hire a coach that only wins. Because I want to know when he fell, can he get up?” he said. “That shows personality and character. I never felt, ‘oh, just because it went bad in one club, that I’m gonna stay on the ground.’

“No, you have to get up and punch back. So that’s what I want to do.”

Besides, the Whitecap years are a small sample of the experience on Dos Santos’ resume. He got his start in Montreal, where he was born, and went on to coach with 11 teams in three countries over the last 18 years, winning everywhere he managed but Vancouver.

That made him a strong contender for the LAFC job when Cherundolo announced in April that he would return to his wife’s native Germany at the end of the season. And though that gave Thorrington plenty of time to find a replacement, allowing him to cast a wide net and consider more than 100 inquiries, he eventually settled on the guy who had been right under his nose.

The same process played out four years ago when Thorrington conducted a global search for Bradley’s replacement before promoting Cherundolo, then coach of LAFC’s affiliate in the second-tier USL Championship.

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One thing that worked in Dos Santos’ favor, Thorrington said, was the number of players who sidled up to say how much they wanted to play for Dos Santos. He also had the advantage of continuity, an understanding of LAFC’s culture and a loyalty to the organization Not only did he return after being sacked in Vancouver, but he said he turned down another MLS coaching job this fall to stay in L.A.

“I could have chosen another club that maybe [had] more comfort, not as much pressure,” he said. “But when John opened the door for the interview process. I went in with everything I had.”

Now comes the hard part.

Although Dos Santos is planning changes to his staff — assistant Ante Razov, the only member of the technical staff that has been with LAFC all eight seasons, is unlikely to return after being passed over for the top job a second time — the core of the roster that took the team to 36 wins over the last two seasons will be back. For LAFC’s ravenous fan base, that leaves just one way to go: up.

Dos Santos says he’s ready for that challenge.

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“It’s a hard job. Coaching is hard,” he said.

“There’s going to be opinions. But it’s a privilege also to be in a position that has so much pressure. This is a club of pressure that wants to win.”

You have read the latest installment of On Soccer with Kevin Baxter. The weekly column takes you behind the scenes and shines a spotlight on unique stories. Listen to Baxter on this week’s episode of the “Corner of the Galaxy” podcast.

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LeBron James clashes with Suns’ Dillon Brooks in Lakers’ 2-point win

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LeBron James clashes with Suns’ Dillon Brooks in Lakers’ 2-point win

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LeBron James got the last laugh on Sunday night as he sank two free throws in the final 3.9 seconds to lift the Los Angeles Lakers over the Phoenix Suns, 116-114.

James may be in the twilight of his career, but he showed he still had some fight. He was battling with Suns forward Dillon Brooks throughout the night. The two got into multiple skirmishes as the intensity was turned up a notch.

Phoenix Suns forward Dillon Brooks fouls Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23) during the second half of an NBA basketball game, Sunday, Dec. 14, 2025, in Phoenix. Brooks was ejected from the game after the foul. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)

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As the game came down to the wire, Brooks hit a clutch 3-pointer to put the Suns up one point with 12.2 seconds left. James ran through him and knocked him down. Brooks got back up and stuck his chest out to ever-so-gently tap James.

A referee came over to stop the conflict from escalating any further. Brooks was ejected from the game.

“I just like to compete,” James said of going up against Brooks, via ESPN. “He’s going to compete. I’m going to compete. We’re going to get up in each other’s face. Try not to go borderline with it. I don’t really take it there. But we’re just competing and did that almost all the way to the end of the game.”

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Phoenix Suns forward Dillon Brooks (3) and Los Angeles Lakers forward Lebron James (23) react after a turnover during the second half of an NBA basketball game, Sunday, Dec. 14, 2025, in Phoenix.  (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)

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Suns star Devin Booker supported Brooks’ intensity.

“Yeah, I mean there’s history there,” he said. “I love to see it. People always say everything’s too friendly in the NBA and then Dillon comes around and now it’s too much. So like I said, I’d rather it the other way — that it’d be too much.”

James scored 26 points on 8-of-17 from the field. Luka Doncic led Los Angeles with 29 points and six assists. The Lakers improved to 18-7 with the win.

Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Doncic (77) looks to shoot over Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker, front left, during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Sunday, Dec. 14, 2025, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)

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Brooks had 18 points in 25 minutes. Booker led the team with 27 points and was 13-of-16 from the free-throw line. Phoenix is 14-12 on the year.

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