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March Madness upset picks: Bracket Breakers chooses its 10 most likely first-round stunners

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March Madness upset picks: Bracket Breakers chooses its 10 most likely first-round stunners

Welcome back to Bracket Breakers! We know you’ve missed us, and we can’t wait to overwhelm you with our unique take on NCAA tournament upsets, powered by our proprietary statistical model, Slingshot. Hopefully, you’ve been following our work for years. But if you’re new to Bracket Breakers, here’s the most recent explanation of who we are, what we do and the state of Slingshot.

In the coming days, we will offer deep regional previews of every first-round matchup that qualifies as a Bracket Breaker game (meaning there must be a differential of at least five seeds). We’ll also provide upset probabilities for every potential second-round matchup on Wednesday. You won’t want to fill out a bracket or place a moneyline bet without checking out that piece!

But as you begin to digest the bracket, we wanted to provide a quick list of the 10 likeliest first-round upsets. We swear we don’t have anything against the Palmetto State — after all, Furman professors Liz Bouzarth, John Harris and Kevin Hutson provide the math behind Slingshot — but our model certainly isn’t bullish on the two power-conference teams from South Carolina.

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March madness bracket prep: Capsule previews for all 68 teams, with strengths, weaknesses, outlooks and more

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As always, Slingshot looks at teams separated by at least 5 seeds, estimates their basic strengths, adjusts those power ratings according to how closely each team fits the statistical profiles of past Davids or Goliaths, and then modifies them again to account for matchups. This year, we’ve upgraded our cluster analysis. And without further ado, the top results.

For more Underdogs, listen to Peter and Jordan’s podcast. 

10 Most Likely First-Round Upsets

1. No. 6 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 11 New Mexico Lobos

Upset Chance: 57.8 percent

2. No. 6 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 11 Oregon Ducks

Upset Chance: 43.2 percent

3. No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 11 NC State Wolfpack

Upset Chance: 38.2 percent

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4. No. 5 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 12 McNeese Cowboys

Upset Chance: 30.8 percent

5. No. 5 Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon Lopes

Upset Chance: 30.4 percent

6. No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 13 Samford Bulldogs

Upset Chance: 30.1 percent

7. No.5 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 12 UAB Blazers

Upset Chance: 27.8 percent

8. No. 6 BYU Cougars vs. No. 11 Duquesne Dukes

Upset Chance: 24.8 percent

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9. No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 12 James Madison Dukes

Upset Chance: 24.4 percent

10. No. 3 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 14 Akron Zips

Upset Chance: 20.4 percent

Thanks to John Harris, Kevin Hutson and Liz Bouzarth of Furman University for research assistance.

(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photo of New Mexico’s Jaelen House: Ian Maule / Getty Images; Photo of Grand Canyon’s Gabe McGlothan: Ian Maule / AP)

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Sherrone Moore’s alleged mistress reportedly received massive pay raise in 2025

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Sherrone Moore’s alleged mistress reportedly received massive pay raise in 2025

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The alleged mistress of former Michigan football head coach Sherrone Moore received a massive pay bump between 2024 and 2025.

The individual allegedly linked to Moore, whose LinkedIn profile lists her as an Executive Assistant to the Head Football Coach at the University of Michigan, earned just over $58,000 in 2023 and 2024, according to public payroll information. In the 2025 fiscal year, though, her salary jumped to $99,000, according to a salary disclosure report from the University of Michigan.

Michigan Wolverines head coach Sherrone Moore leaves the field following the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan on Nov. 29, 2025.  (Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images)

That’s a 70.62 percent increase year-over-year — even higher than the figure circulating social media right now via UMSalary.info.

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As OutKick’s Trey Wallace reported, Moore was fired with cause on Wednesday in his second season as the Wolverines’ head coach. The move came after an investigation surrounding Moore’s alleged “inappropriate relationship” with a staffer.

And it’s hard to imagine the massive salary bump she received didn’t raise some eyebrows within the department.

“U-M head football coach Sherrone Moore has been terminated, with cause, effective immediately,” Michigan Athletic Director Warde Manual announced on Wednesday. “Following a university investigation, credible evidence was found that Coach Moore engaged in an inappropriate relationship with a staff member. This conduct constitutes a clear violation of University policy, and U-M maintains zero tolerance for such behavior.”

Michigan football head coach Sherrone Moore reacts from the sideline during a college football game against the USC Trojans at Michigan Stadium on Sept. 21, 2024 in Ann Arbor, Michigan.  (Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images)

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Less than an hour after his termination, police were called to a residence to detain the former coach under possible assault charges. Moore allegedly threatened to harm himself and others before being taken into custody.

As of Thursday afternoon, Moore is being held at Washtenaw County Jail. No charges have been filed yet, but he is expected to appear in court on Friday to be arraigned, according to Pittsfield Township police department.

Michigan Wolverines head coach Sherrone Moore is shown on the sidelines during the first quarter against the Maryland Terrapins at SECU Stadium in College Park, Maryland, on Nov. 22, 2025. (Tommy Gilligan/Imagn Images)

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OutKick reached out to the University of Michigan and its athletic department regarding the staffer’s 70 percent pay raise, but they didn’t immediately respond.

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Distance runners reminded about the dangers of training on Southern California streets

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Distance runners reminded about the dangers of training on Southern California streets

When seven distance runners from Anaheim High waiting to cross a street near campus were struck by a car on Wednesday driven by a suspected drunk driver, it once again brought into focus the dangers coaches and athletes must deal with while training on the streets of Southern California.

For Hernan Herrera, the incident brought back memories to his senior year at Monroe High as a member of the cross-country team in 2009. He was struck by a car in North Hills that ran a red light. He said he was hospitalized for weeks with knee and pelvic injuries that required surgery and left him sidelined for months.

Herrera was 17. Now he’s the dean of students and wrestling coach at Monroe. He doesn’t see changing the practice routine used by most high schools running in the neighborhood to fulfill weekly requirements of 45 to 60 miles of training to prepare for competitions.

“Everyone understands accidents happen and there’s no one to blame other than the person behind the wheel,” Herrera said.

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Yes, schools could transport students to quieter streets or hilly areas with running trails, but that would lead to additional costs and there are many schools far away from such areas.

Coaches have been assigning adults to supervise street workouts for years. Monroe coach Leo Hernandez said he got his position in 1999 because he could run with his athletes to keep watch over them.

Maybe there needs to be additional meetings and reminders for those running on sidewalks or crossing streets to be cautious and to reinforce following traffic rules while being on the lookout for distracted drivers.

Herrera said athletes must get in their workouts beyond running around the school track to be able to compete well in cross-country or distance races in track and field.

“I don’t think there’s anything to do to mitigate the situation,” he said.

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Ex-LSU star implores Michigan star to transfer amid Sherrone Moore controversy

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Ex-LSU star implores Michigan star to transfer amid Sherrone Moore controversy

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The Sherrone Moore scandal that sparked a frenzy in college football on Wednesday led to questions about what Michigan Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood will do with the opening of the transfer portal looming.

Underwood had a solid freshman season as the Wolverines’ quarterback. He threw for 2,229 yards and nine touchdowns and rushed for 323 yards and five touchdowns. Michigan finished 9-3 and were set to play the Texas Longhorns in the upcoming Citrus Bowl.

Michigan Wolverines head coach Sherrone Moore leads the team off the field after warm-ups before the game against the Maryland Terrapins at SECU Stadium on Nov. 22, 2025 in College Park, Maryland.  (G Fiume/Getty Images)

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Moore was dismissed from the program as athletic director Warde Manuel said he engaged in an “inappropriate relationship” with a staffer. The former coach was then jailed amid an “assault investigation” in Pittsfield, Michigan, police said.

With chaos occurring in and around Ann Arbor, former LSU Tigers star defensive back Tyrann Mathieu wrote on social media that Underwood should consider transferring to his alma mater in the Bayou.

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Michigan Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) passes against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Stadium on Nov. 29, 2025.  (Rick Osentoski/Imagn Images)

“Come home son @BryceUnderwood,” Mathieu wrote. “We are waiting & will accept you with open arms. FOREVER LSU.”

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Underwood initially chose to commit to LSU before he flipped to play under Moore. The former head coach touted Underwood’s commitment at the time as “the best players in Michigan go to Michigan.”

It’s unclear what Underwood will do.

Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) walks off the field after 24-7 win over Washington at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Oct. 18, 2025. (Junfu Han/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

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He was born in Detroit and played high school football in Michigan. He was a two-time Michigan High School Player of the Year.

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