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March Madness upset picks: Bracket Breakers chooses its 10 most likely first-round stunners

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March Madness upset picks: Bracket Breakers chooses its 10 most likely first-round stunners

Welcome back to Bracket Breakers! We know you’ve missed us, and we can’t wait to overwhelm you with our unique take on NCAA tournament upsets, powered by our proprietary statistical model, Slingshot. Hopefully, you’ve been following our work for years. But if you’re new to Bracket Breakers, here’s the most recent explanation of who we are, what we do and the state of Slingshot.

In the coming days, we will offer deep regional previews of every first-round matchup that qualifies as a Bracket Breaker game (meaning there must be a differential of at least five seeds). We’ll also provide upset probabilities for every potential second-round matchup on Wednesday. You won’t want to fill out a bracket or place a moneyline bet without checking out that piece!

But as you begin to digest the bracket, we wanted to provide a quick list of the 10 likeliest first-round upsets. We swear we don’t have anything against the Palmetto State — after all, Furman professors Liz Bouzarth, John Harris and Kevin Hutson provide the math behind Slingshot — but our model certainly isn’t bullish on the two power-conference teams from South Carolina.

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March madness bracket prep: Capsule previews for all 68 teams, with strengths, weaknesses, outlooks and more

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As always, Slingshot looks at teams separated by at least 5 seeds, estimates their basic strengths, adjusts those power ratings according to how closely each team fits the statistical profiles of past Davids or Goliaths, and then modifies them again to account for matchups. This year, we’ve upgraded our cluster analysis. And without further ado, the top results.

For more Underdogs, listen to Peter and Jordan’s podcast. 

10 Most Likely First-Round Upsets

1. No. 6 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 11 New Mexico Lobos

Upset Chance: 57.8 percent

2. No. 6 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 11 Oregon Ducks

Upset Chance: 43.2 percent

3. No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 11 NC State Wolfpack

Upset Chance: 38.2 percent

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4. No. 5 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 12 McNeese Cowboys

Upset Chance: 30.8 percent

5. No. 5 Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon Lopes

Upset Chance: 30.4 percent

6. No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 13 Samford Bulldogs

Upset Chance: 30.1 percent

7. No.5 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 12 UAB Blazers

Upset Chance: 27.8 percent

8. No. 6 BYU Cougars vs. No. 11 Duquesne Dukes

Upset Chance: 24.8 percent

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9. No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 12 James Madison Dukes

Upset Chance: 24.4 percent

10. No. 3 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 14 Akron Zips

Upset Chance: 20.4 percent

Thanks to John Harris, Kevin Hutson and Liz Bouzarth of Furman University for research assistance.

(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photo of New Mexico’s Jaelen House: Ian Maule / Getty Images; Photo of Grand Canyon’s Gabe McGlothan: Ian Maule / AP)

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Will Ospreay firmly believes he can carry AEW if he’s able to win world championship at All In

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Will Ospreay firmly believes he can carry AEW if he’s able to win world championship at All In

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Will Ospreay was able to live out his “dream match” on Sunday night at All Elite Wrestling (AEW)’s Double or Nothing pay-per-view in New York.

Ospreay squared off against Samoa Joe in the first round of the Owen Hart Men’s Tournament. The winner of the tournament will earn an AEW World Championship shot at All In – AEW’s premiere event of the year – at Wembley Stadium in England.

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Will Ospreay defeated Samoa Joe in a wrestling match at AEW Double or Nothing in Queens, N.Y., on May 24, 2026. (Lee South/AEW)

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He started the match with an OsCutter, catching Joe off guard. The two battled their way through the match but it was Ospreay who hit Joe with multiple Hidden Blades to get the win. The “Aerial Assassin” was asked about his ability to carry AEW on his shoulders and become the face of the company should he win the Owen and take the title later this year.

“It’s because I have that confidence and that belief I can carry those three letters,” he said at the post-show scrum. “The middle letter, ‘E,’ that’s the standard, mate – elite. When everybody talks about elite pro wrestling, there is no one better on this planet. I believe that with my heart. I believe that with my soul.

Samoa Joe and Will Ospreay compete in a wrestling match at AEW Double or Nothing in Queens, N.Y., on May 24, 2026. (Lee South/AEW)

“I know what I’m capable of. I know what I can do. This place, the motto, and it gets said over and over again, ‘this is where the best wrestle.’ No, mate. This is where the ‘Billy Goat’ wrestles. And I’m ready more than ever to take that top spot and to take AEW to new heights.”

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Ospreay said he has dreamed about performing at Wembley Stadium as a pro wrestler while his schoolmates were dreaming of becoming soccer players.

He had battled back through a neck injury and worked out with the Death Riders to turn into the weapon he once was. The entire situation miffed Joe, which culminated in a match at Double or Nothing.

Ospreay will either face Mark Davis or Jack Perry in the semifinals. On the other side of the men’s bracket, Swerve Strickland defeated Bandido at Double or Nothing. He will either face Claudio Castagnoli or Brody King in the semis.

Will Ospreay competes in the ring during AEW Dynamite at the Petersen Events Center in Pittsburgh, Pa., on Oct. 2, 2024. (Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)

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The finals of the Owen Cup will be held at Forbidden Door on June 28.

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Prep talk: Mattias Di Maggio of Dos Pueblos enjoys one of the best freshman years ever

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Prep talk: Mattias Di Maggio of Dos Pueblos enjoys one of the best freshman years ever

Good as advertised.

That’s all you can say about Dos Pueblos freshman outfielder Mattias Di Maggio, whose first year of high school baseball came to an end with a 13-6 playoff loss to Mira Costa. But what a season he had.

He struck out once in 84 at-bats (it came against a Santa Barbara left-handed pitcher). He set a school record with 11 home runs. He batted .508 with 36 hits and nine doubles.

Said Mira Costa coach Andy Diver: “Very special player. Most polished freshman I have ever seen.”

College and pro scouts are well aware of his talents, so it will be interesting to see what he can accomplish over the next three seasons of high school baseball. At least Goleta is going to be quite popular to visit just to see him play.

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This is a daily look at the positive happenings in high school sports. To submit any news, please email eric.sondheimer@latimes.com.

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Victor Wembanyama scores 33 as Spurs dominate Thunder in Game 4 to even Western Conference Finals

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Victor Wembanyama scores 33 as Spurs dominate Thunder in Game 4 to even Western Conference Finals

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The San Antonio Spurs have evened up the Western Conference Finals in dominant fashion, defeating the Oklahoma City Thunder, 103-82, on Sunday night.

With both teams winning two games now, it will be a pivotal matchup in Game 5 back at Paycor Center in Oklahoma City on Tuesday night to see who will have the upper hand heading into a decisive Game 6.

One of the biggest stories in this game revolved around the Thunder’s 3-point shooting percentage. It was such an advantage in Game 3’s victory, as they shot 44.7% and 48.1% from the field overall.

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Victor Wembanyama of the San Antonio Spurs scores a basket against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the second quarter in Game Four of the NBA Western Conference Finals at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas, on May 24, 2026. (Alex Slitz/Getty Images)

But the Spurs adjusted their defense, and it showed in Game 4 as the Thunder shot just 6 of 33 from beyond the arc (18%), resulting in only 33% shots made from the field.

San Antonio wasn’t much better, making only 27% of their 3s (9 of 33) and shooting just 39% from the field. However, they were playing aggressively and getting chances at the charity stripe, shooting 32 free throws compared to Oklahoma City’s 18.

2026 WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS ODDS, BEST BETS, SERIES SPREAD: SAN ANTONIO SPURS VS OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

The aggression was clear from both teams, but it was San Antonio making the best of those moments, and it began in the first quarter.

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The Spurs got out to a hot start, owning a nine-point lead after the first quarter and moving it to double digits by halftime to the home crowd’s delight. Then, in the third quarter, the Thunder were struggling to hit shots, as they started to turn the ball over, which the Spurs have capitalized on all season long.

San Antonio scored 25 of its points off the Thunder’s 20 turnovers, and they were finding success in fast-break moments, too.

San Antonio Spurs guard Stephon Castle gestures against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the first half of Game 4 in the Western Conference finals NBA playoffs in San Antonio on May 24, 2026. (Eric Gay/AP)

At one point, the Spurs had a 25-point lead, and it’s always sweet for a team to rest its starters in the fourth quarter with a victory in hand.

Victor Wembanyama was back to his efficient ways from the floor, leading the Spurs with 33 points (11 of 22), while nailing three 3-pointers, collecting eight rebounds and dishing five assists. He also had three blocks on the other end.

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But Stephon Castle (13 points, three rebounds, six assists), Devin Vassell (13 points, six rebounds, three assists) and De’Aaron Fox (12 points, 10 rebounds, five assists) all contributed well in the starting five in the winning effort. The Spurs also had six bench players score, including Dylan Harper, who finished with seven points and five rebounds.

For the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a poor shooting night, hitting just six of his 15 shots, though he made all seven of his free throws. He had four rebounds, seven assists and four turnovers for Oklahoma City.

San Antonio Spurs players Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama, and Devin Vassell react after a basket against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the first half of Game 4 in the Western Conference finals in San Antonio on May 24, 2026. (Eric Gay/AP)

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As always, the Thunder had solid contributions from its bench, but it wasn’t to their standards. Players like Aaron Wiggins and Jared McCain, pivotal pieces in Game 3’s win, shot a combined 3 of 21 from the field for eight total points.

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These two top seeds in the West will battle Tuesday night at 8:30 p.m. ET.

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