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Kentucky basketball vs Iowa State prediction, pick for NCAA game

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Kentucky basketball vs Iowa State prediction, pick for NCAA game


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  • Kentucky basketball will face Iowa State in the NCAA Tournament second round after both teams earned victories Friday in St. Louis.
  • Iowa State dominated Tennessee State after UK escaped Santa Clara in overtime, but Cyclones star Joshua Jefferson left the game with an injury.
  • Who has the edge with a Sweet 16 berth on the line? Here’s our prediction.

ST. LOUIS — Kentucky basketball survived. And advanced.

Thanks to its 89-84 overtime victory over Santa Clara on Friday, UK sealed a spot in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

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But the challenge for coach Mark Pope and the Wildcats is about to get considerably tougher.

The next opponent for seventh-seeded Kentucky (22-13) is the No. 2 seed in the Midwest Region, Iowa State. The Cyclones had far less drama in their first-round matchup than the Cats. Iowa State trounced Tennesseee State, 108-74, in the game immediately following UK/Santa Clara at the Enterprise Center.

The Cyclones are one of the country’s best teams. They enter Sunday’s matchup 28-7 in 2025-26. ISU went 12-6 in the Big 12 during the regular season. Its conference tournament ended in agonizing fashion, however, falling at the buzzer to Arizona in the semifinals.

The winner of Sunday’s game between UK and ISU will clinch a spot in the Sweet 16. And pack their bags for Chicago, where the Midwest Region’s Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games will be contested next week at the United Center.

Watch Kentucky vs. Iowa State on Fubo (free trial)

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Here’s what to know about Kentucky’s second-round battle against Iowa State:

The Cyclones began the 2025-26 campaign 16-0. Not only was that the program’s best-ever start to a season, but it doubled as the longest win streak in school history. Iowa State also notched 25 wins prior to the postseason for only the third time in the program’s annals.

But if the Cyclones are to set a single-season school standard for wins, they’ll need to win out. The current record holder is the 1999-2000 club, which had 32 wins. To reach 33, Iowa State must win the national championship.

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In just five seasons at the helm, T.J. Otzelberger has carved out plenty of space for himself in Iowa State’s record book.

He enters today with an overall record of 123-52. That’s the most wins for any ISU coach in the first five seasons of a tenure. Otzelberger was the quickest in program history to 100 victories, needing only 145 games. He also holds the Cylcones’ mark for wins over Associated Press top-25 foes (30).

His overall winning percentage (.714), conference winning percentage (.587) and home winning percentage (.874) also are No. 1 among Iowa State coaches. And Otzelberger’s six NCAA Tournament wins are two more than any other coaches the Cyclones have had.

He’s fourth on the school’s all-time wins list, trailing Johnny Orr (218), Louis Menze (166) and Glen Anderson (142).

It’s a safe bet that if Otzelberger stays in Ames, Iowa, long enough, he’ll also be atop that list in the future.

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Joshua Jefferson is averaging 16.9 points, 7.6 rebounds and 4.9 and 1.7 steals per game this season. That’s a stat line no Big 12 player ever has averaged in a single campaign. And, per the Cyclones’ official game notes, only five players in Division I history have done so since steals began being tracked in 1974-75. It’s a list that includes Larry Bird and Penny Hardaway.

But Jefferson’s status for Sunday is unclear.

He injured his left ankle in the first half of Friday’s rout and did not return. Jefferson made it to the team’s bench in the second half using crutches, with a boot on his left foot.

If he’s unable to take the floor Sunday, other Cyclones will have to step up.

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Two of his teammates fit the bill.

Forward Milan Momcilovic is arguably the deadliest 3-point shooter in college hoops. He already has Iowa State’s single-season mark in that category, with 130 entering Sunday. Prior to Friday’s games, his 127 were tied for first nationally alongside Samford’s Jadin Booth.

More remarkably, his volume hasn’t adversely affected his accuracy. At 49.6% on the season, he also paces Division I in that category.

In the backcourt, senior guard Tamin Lipsey averages 13.3 points, 4 rebounds and 5 assists per outing. He’s among the top 20 in the country in both assist-to-turnover ratio and steals per game.

If that’s not enough, he’s also the Cyclones’ career leader in steals (308) and games started (135).

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Buy Kentucky NCAA Tournament tickets vs. Iowa State

Iowa State 71, Kentucky 68: With a healthy Joshua Jefferson, the Cyclones likely would be close to a double-digit favorite. But if he’s hobbled, that hurts Iowa State. And if he’s not able to play at all, that’s even tougher. Yet it’s not as if the Wildcats don’t have injury issues of their own. Starting point guard Jaland Lowe has been out since January. And forward Jayden Quaintance would need a miracle to be cleared Sunday.

Kentucky used up more energy — physically (going to OT) and emotionally (barely keeping its season alive) — than Iowa State.

It’ll be a bare-knuckled fight Sunday.

But Iowa State will eke out a narrow victory to bring down the curtains on Kentucky’s second season under Mark Pope.

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Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.



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Dick Vitale believes Kentucky has to many “cupcakes” on the non-conference schedule

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Dick Vitale believes Kentucky has to many “cupcakes” on the non-conference schedule


Yesterday, Kentucky announced a few more of its non-conference games, and some folks are not happy about the quality of opponents that will come to Rupp Arena. The seven teams added to the schedule were Manhattan (November 3rd), James Madison (November 6th), Northern Arizona (November 13th), Grambling State (November 16th), Bryant (December 8th), Sacred Heart (December 22nd), and Gardner-Webb (December 28th).

One of those who voiced his displeasure was Dick Vitale. The college basketball legend took to X to say, “The Kentucky basketball schedule has many cupcakes on their pre-conference schedule & 5 legit challenges – BBN -Cats fans & players deserve a more challenging schedule in getting ready for the SEC – especially having a TEAM with over 21 MILLION in NIL dollars.”

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ESPN announcer Dick Vitale with analyst Charles Barkley before the Indiana-Kentucky men’s college basketball game at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky December 13, 2025. | Matt Stone/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

I see where Dickie V is coming from here, but the reality is that every college basketball team is going to play these cupcake games. If Vitale is frustrated with the NET Rankings of these teams, I understand, but all of college basketball plays games like this.

I can see the frustration for BBN knowing the only really exciting home game coming to Rupp Arena this non-conference season is the matchup with rival Louisville. I have a feeling another big-time game could be coming to the schedule, knowing the Gonzaga matchup is no more. Hopefully, if a new marquee game is scheduled, it will be in Rupp Arena, but this is still to be seen.

The reality is the Wildcats have a top ten strength of schedule right now, and they do have games against Kansas, Indiana, Louisville, North Carolina, and Virginia scheduled in non-conference play. During Mark Pope’s tenure, the Wildcats have played a very tough schedule each season, and that is not going to change this year.

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Mar 22, 2026; St. Louis, MO, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope greets a referee before the game against the Iowa State Cyclones during a second round game of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at Enterprise Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images | Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

Fans would like to see some more exciting games come to Rupp Arena, but the SEC will once again be very good, which will bring a lot of top 25 matchups to Lexington this year. I believe the five marquee games scheduled for non-conference play will have the Wildcats ready for SEC play, especially knowing they will play a true road game against Virginia.

If the Wildcats do add one more marquee game to the non-conference schedule, this should have Vitale bought into the schedule and how it will get Pope’s team ready for the gauntlet that is SEC play.

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Kentucky basketball coach Mark Pope relishes being on the hot seat

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Kentucky basketball coach Mark Pope relishes being on the hot seat


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  • Kentucky basketball coach Mark Pope is comfortable with the high-pressure nature of his job.
  • After a period of uncertainty, Pope has gained recruiting momentum from signing Milan Momcilovic and landing Ryan Hampton in the Class of 2027.

ROCK HILL, S.C. — Kentucky basketball coach Mark Pope sat with legs crossed in the foldout chairs overlooking two basketball courts at the NBPA Top 100 basketball camp last week.

His posture and newly grown beard gave off a relaxed and confident vibe that suggested he was in full summer mode, a look that belied all of the chaos that seemed to engulf his position not too long ago.

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Pope has grown comfortable with it all. The highs from winning big games. The crushing feeling from failing to meet UK’s standard. The criticisms. The pats on the back.

However Pope’s tenure as Kentucky’s coach plays out, he’s not trying to satisfy popular opinion of how people think he should be operating. 

Pope’s going to do things at his pace. He has no time to be scared of being on the hot seat because, the way he sees it, his job performance has been dissected since he took the job in 2024.    

“It’s probably hard to understand from the outside, but, Kentucky is the hot seat,” Pope said.

If it’s not the most-dissected, most-watched, most-critiqued position in college basketball, it would have to be tied for first, because it certainly isn’t No. 2. 

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A month ago, things looked awfully bleak for Pope while he was still awaiting word on whether center Malachi Moreno would turn pro or return to school. He missed on 14 of the top 20 transfers he pursued, per 247Sports’ rankings, and the Wildcats’ incoming transfer class still had no sizzle to it.

Between the end of the Cats’ second-round loss in the NCAA Tournament up to the May 27 deadline to pull out of the NBA draft, there was growing anxiety on the moves, or lack thereof, Pope was making. 

It was easy to connect the dots: With UK ushering in a new athletics director — J Batt was officially hired from Michigan State on Monday — Pope’s job status could be in trouble next year should they have a down season.

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Since then, Pope turned all the dread into optimism.

Moreno returned. 

Milan Momcilovic, an Iowa State transfer ranked by multiple outlets as the top free agent in the class, took his name out of the draft and signed with UK.

And just for good measure, 6-foot-6 forward Ryan Hampton, who is ranked No. 10 in the 247Sports Composite in the Class of 2027, committed to the Cats as well. 

“There’s a good chance that I’m the happiest coach in the world,” Pope said. “Because I have a one-of-one job. I love every bit of it. I love the things that go great. I love the challenges.”

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One of the biggest challenges, if not criticisms, for Pope through his two seasons at UK has been recruiting. 

The Cats’ first high school signing in the Class of 2026, Mason Williams, didn’t come to fruition until the end of March. And Williams, the son of former NBA guard and newly hired UK assistant coach Mo Williams, wasn’t ranked in the top 100 of the 247Sports Composite rankings. Pope’s first full recruiting class in 2025 did include blue-chippers in Moreno and Jasper Johnson, but both of those players were Kentucky natives.

Hampton is a Texas native who currently plays at DME Academy in Florida. He’s also the highest-ranked recruit Pope has ever landed.

Pope is pursuing six of the remaining nine players ranked in the top 10 of the 2027 class, including power forward C.J. Rosser, the No. 1-ranked recruit. He’s not afraid to come up empty knowing the criticism that will follow.

“When you’re relevant and you’re great, you’re gonna have critics,” Pope said. “When you don’t have critics, that probably means you’re not very relevant or very great.”

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Being the coach at UK will always keep Pope relevant, so the critics aren’t going anywhere. But, for now, he’s found a way to keep them silent for a summer.

Reach sports columnist C.L. Brown at clbrown1@gannett.com, follow him on X at @CLBrownHoops and subscribe to his newsletter at profile.courier-journal.com/newsletters/cl-browns-latest to make sure you never miss one of his columns.





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2028 5-Star Erick Dampier Jr. Earns Kentucky Offer: ‘It’s Been Crazy’

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2028 5-Star Erick Dampier Jr. Earns Kentucky Offer: ‘It’s Been Crazy’


When the contact period began at midnight on June 15, Erick Dampier Jr. wasn’t sure who was going to call. Kentucky had been at plenty of his games throughout the spring, and his father had his own battles on the court with Mark Pope back in the day.

“I was really excited. I didn’t really know what to expect,” Dampier told KSR on Monday. “At first, I thought I wasn’t going to get anything. Throughout the whole night, I didn’t get anything, but then I’ve been getting offers today.”

One of those offers was from Kentucky. It was head coach Mark Pope who made the call.

“When I found out it was Kentucky, I was like, yeah,” Dampier said. “I was excited.”

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A History With Bigs

In Mark Pope’s two years at Kentucky so far, he’s shown that he can develop bigs. That’s been his pitch to Erick Dampier Jr. since the recruitment started.

“In the last three years, they’ve had three bigs to come out and go to the NBA before me,” Dampier said. “It’s Jayden Quaintance, Malachi Moreno, and Amari Williams. He said they were all passing bigs, and that I could be the next big here.”

During the Nike EYBL live period session in Memphis in May, Pope was at most of Dampier’s games. He got a good sense of who he is as a player.

“[Pope] said he liked my style of basketball, and he said I play relentlessly,” Dampier said. “He likes how I can pass the ball, play in transition, and dribble. That’s a really big thing for me. He says that could separate me and help me in the long run.”

A Busy Monday

Erick Dampier’s Monday got very busy with college coaches calling. He’s heard from the likes of USC, Florida State, and Louisville, among others.

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“It’s exciting that all the work I’ve put in shows and is starting to pay off,” Dampier said. “It makes you feel good about yourself, and it makes you want to be better and work harder. It gives me motivation.”

Dampier said he’s looking for a program that wins. That’s his main focus.

“The main thing is a national championship. Everyone knows that. Everyone wants a national championship, but not everybody gets one,” Dampier said. “I want the best chance to get one. Every college has a good coach, so that’s irrelevant, but that too. Good chemistry. When I get there, I want it to be smooth. I don’t want to make a major change. I want it to feel like home.”

His dad has also provided advice throughout the process. Erick Dampier Sr. played at Mississippi State from 1993-96 before an NBA career spanning from 1996-2012.

“He’s told me just to be patient because this is the start of it,” Dampier said. “Basically, just keep going, be yourself, fight through adversity, and do the simple things. The simple things are what take you a long way.”

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Erick Dampier Jr.’s Game

Madison-Ridgeland (Mississippi) Academy five-star center Erick Dampier Jr. is the nation’s No. 4 overall prospect according to the Rivals Industry Ranking, an equally weighted average that utilizes all three major recruiting services. Rivals ranks Dampier as the No. 2 center and the No. 4 overall player in the 2028 class.


“My greatest strengths are being able to play on both sides of the ball, offense and defense, being able to pass the ball, being a big defensive threat, and just being a threat on the court,” Dampier said.

Dampier doesn’t turn 17-years-old until October. He said he “probably won’t” reclass into 2027.

“A lot of people don’t know that I’m actually young for my class,” Dampier said. “A lot of people assume that if you’re good, you’re older because that’s what it usually is. I’m actually the right age. It’s probably that or the work I put in. I work a lot.”

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