Sports
Bellingham, Messi and the perils of burnout, incessant football and playing through injury
The sight of Harry Kane shuffling off the field after an hour of ineffective play in the Euro 2024 final was not how most would have expected his tournament to end.
In truth, he probably shouldn’t have been playing at Euro 2024 at all. Kane missed the end of the Bundesliga season with Bayern Munich because of a back injury and was described by his manager Thomas Tuchel as having a “complete blockade” in his back that “bothers him in everyday movements”. The injury was serious enough that it made him a doubt in their Champions League semi-final against Real Madrid in May.
He wasn’t the only player to be hampered. Jude Bellingham was still suffering from the after-effects of a dislocated shoulder in November and may need surgery at some point. For months, Bellingham has been wearing special strapping on his shoulder that enables him to play freely. Some good news for Real Madrid fans is that Kylian Mbappe is unlikely to need surgery on his nose after breaking it while playing for France at the Euros. He played on with a special mask.
Spanish goalkeeper Unai Simon had an operation on his wrist shortly after the tournament, which had been needed for some time. He managed to get through Spain’s victorious Euro 2024 campaign by using painkilling injections.
It was a similar story at the Copa America. You’ll have seen the pictures of Lionel Messi in tears, his ankle looking about twice the size it should have been after suffering an injury in the final. He had already had to nurse his way to that final after suffering a groin problem in Argentina’s second game against Chile.
His Inter Miami team-mate Luis Suarez will also miss the upcoming MLS All-Star game with what has been described as “knee discomfort”, presumably related to the chronic knee issue he has had to manage for the past few years.
Bournemouth’s Tyler Adams will be on the sidelines when the Premier League season begins after having back surgery. The United States midfielder also played through the issue at Copa America and probably should have had the operation earlier.
“He wanted to play Copa America because it was very important for him,” his Bournemouth manager Andoni Iraola said, “but he had restrictions and was still in pain, so two days after they were knocked out, he had surgery.”
But perhaps more than all of that, many of the biggest players just looked exhausted.
“It’s so tough with crazy schedules and then coming together for the end of the season for one last tournament,” said Bellingham after the final. “It’s difficult on the body — mentally and physically you are exhausted.”
Jude Bellingham was shattered at Euro 2024 (Stu Forster/Getty Images)
Bellingham, 21, played 54 games for club and country in a season that spanned 11 months, from the second week in August to the middle of July. Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti tried to manage Bellingham’s game time, giving him the odd week off here and there, but even when he was left on the bench at times, Ancelotti put up the Jude signal, pressing him into action — shoulder strapping and all.
It’s no wonder Bellingham was tired — but his workload was relatively light compared to others. Manchester United’s seemingly indestructible Bruno Fernandes got through 5,399 minutes last season. William Saliba, an ever-present for Arsenal in the Premier League, and Germany captain Ilkay Gundogan also got more than 5,000 minutes under their belts. “It has been a very demanding season,” said Gundogan during Euro 2024, with some understatement.
Julian Alvarez might not have played the same number of minutes (a ‘mere’ 3,480 for Manchester City), but his schedule has been brutal. His season began on August 11 (August 6 if you count the Community Shield), playing for Manchester City until May, with his longest break between games coming in at 13 days. Fifteen days after the FA Cup final, he appeared in his first pre-Copa game for Argentina. He played two friendlies before starting all but one of their games during the tournament, then, after a luxurious break of 10 days, he was in the team for Argentina’s opening game at the Olympics, that marathon game against Morocco.
The men’s gold medal game is on August 9, so his 2023-24 season could last almost exactly a year, with only a couple of fortnight breaks between games. City play the Community Shield the day after — you hope they don’t demand he hops on the Eurostar to take part in that one.
All of which backs up the point being made by FIFPro, the global players’ union, and some of the leading European leagues as they issue a legal complaint against FIFA, accusing football’s governing body of presiding over an international calendar that is “beyond saturation”.
FIFPro said: “The schedule has become unsustainable for national leagues and a risk for the health of players. FIFA’s decisions over the last years have repeatedly favoured its own competitions and commercial interests, neglected its responsibilities as a governing body, and harmed the economic interests of national leagues and the welfare of players.”
It is worth pointing out that any complaints from Premier League teams about overwhelming scheduling rings slightly hollow. They conduct lengthy pre-season and post-season tours, which involve heavy travel as well as games. Chelsea are playing five games in 13 days in a pre-season tour spanning basically the whole continental United States. Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United flew to Australia the day after the last Premier League season finished.
After Copa America, Julian Alvarez went to the Olympics (Arnaud Finistre/AFP/Getty Images)
The point remains that the approach of FIFA — and most other governing bodies, including UEFA — to scheduling has consistently been ‘more is more’. The expansion of the World Cup from 2026, the revamped Champions League format, the new Club World Cup, the Nations League and whatever other brilliant wheezes they can dream up, all mean it is technically possible for an elite men’s player to play 87 games next season. No player will actually be on the pitch that many times, but it illustrates the point FIFPro is making. There is too much football, and even if you don’t really care about player burnout, the overwhelming amount of games devalues the whole thing.
“You start in August and until May you don’t stop,” said Mikel Oyarzabal, scorer of Spain’s winner in the Euro 2024 final. “Then in June there is the national team and after that a Club World Cup. They will finish up in July and then, a few weeks later, the league starts again. It needs to be turned back, but it is not up to us (players). We have to adapt as best we can.”
Oyarzabal is a good example of why FIFPro has launched this action, beyond the general fatigue and devaluing of the game.
In the summer of 2021, Oyarzabal played at the European Championship and then the Olympics, with 16 days between his last game at the former and the first at the latter. He played 104 minutes of Spain’s defeat in the gold medal match in Japan, then a week later he was back on domestic duty with Real Sociedad. Later that season, he suffered a cruciate ligament injury that kept him out for nine months and made him miss the World Cup.
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You could argue there is an element of personal responsibility here: Oyarzabal could have skipped the Olympics if he wanted, but it’s the Olympics, an experience that any athlete would love to have. It’s harsh to blame individual players for wanting to make the most of their short careers just because administrators don’t know the meaning of the phrase ‘less is more’.
We can’t definitively draw a line between an excess of games and that specific injury, but it surely doesn’t help.
“It’s about having sufficient time to recover in between each match,” says Nick Worth, a consultant sports physiotherapist who has worked with several football clubs, about why too many games are problematic. “The physical demands mean players are more likely to get injured because they’re playing in a fatigued state.”
Clubs generally do their best to regulate the number of games their key players appear in and have a variety of methods to judge when the players are reaching their capacity and need a rest. But those methods are not infallible: “It’s an indicator rather than being a decision-maker,” says Worth. But also the sheer number of games — and, perhaps more to the point, the commercial and sporting importance placed on those games — means it can be difficult to determine which ones a player can miss.
Euro 2024 hero Oyarzabal complained about scheduling (Ina Fassbender/AFP/Getty Images)
Even friendlies aren’t safe. Take the game Inter Miami played in Hong Kong last February. Messi didn’t play in that game because of a groin injury, but then did in a subsequent fixture in Japan a few days later, which sparked outrage. Tatler, which sponsored the event, gave 50 per cent refunds to outraged spectators after saying it was “let down along with all of you”, while a local politician described it as a “calculated snub to Hong Kong”.
There is also the desire from the players involved to play in games that, from a medical perspective, they probably shouldn’t have done. All of those who played through injury at the Euros and the Copa this summer probably would have rested had these been run-of-the-mill, mid-season league games.
FIFPro has also raised concerns about excessive pain-killing injections that are often given to players to squeeze a few more minutes or games out of them. “That happens less often than people imagine,” says Worth, but he also cautions that there is “an element of jeopardy about those decisions”.
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The risk is not the injections themselves, but the fact they mask the pain that serves as the body’s way of letting the player know they are injured. “So there are times people play with pain-killing injections, but the risk is you might make something worse without someone knowing it,” says Worth.
The point is that at both the major tournaments this summer, despite brilliant play, thrilling moments and new heroes, the overall spectacle was diminished because the biggest stars either got injured, were playing with existing injuries or were simply exhausted.
“We are human beings, not machines,” the former Liverpool and West Ham goalkeeper Adrian told The Athletic this week. “We need a balance, for the fans to enjoy football, too. We need to be fresh and able to play. There are no movies without actors.”
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Additional reporting: Dermot Corrigan
(Top photos: Jude Bellingham by Alex Grimm; Lionel Messi by Buda Mendes; both via Getty Images)
LIV Golf star Jon Rahm and his caddie, Adam Hayes, had some frustrating words with fans during his first career win on the Saudi-backed tour.
On Saturday, Rahm was lining up a chip shot off the 16th hole green at JCB Golf and Country Club in Rocester, England, when a fan off in the distance could be heard shouting something on the broadcast.
Rahm could be heard saying, “Hey man,” and he slapped his leg in the process.
Jon Rahm is shown during the second day of the LIV Golf event at the JCB Golf and Country Club in Rocester, England, on July 27, 2024. (Bradley Collyer/PA Images via Getty Images)
Rahm’s frustrations ran even hotter when a fan was again heard shouting something his way, and this time he shot his arms up in the air.
That led Hayes to start barking back. And while it wasn’t entirely heard, the caddie could clearly be heard saying, “Yelling in our f—ing backswing, you d—head,” per Awful Announcing.
GOLF ANALYST RAGES OVER JON RAHM’S PGA TOUR COMMENTS: ‘I WANT TO WRING HIS NECK’
The LIV Golf broadcaster said, “We’ve all thought it,” after Hayes’ comments got picked up by the microphone.
Rahm would end up posting a 4-under final round to beat Joaquin Niemann by one stroke, and his 13-under total for the weekend led to his first LIV Golf individual victory.
Rahm’s Legion XIII squad, which includes Tyrell Hatton, Kieran Vincent and Caleb Surratt, won the event by three strokes (26-under) as Ripper GC (23-under) and Crushers GC (20-under) finished in second and third, respectively.
Jon Rahm is shown during the second day of the LIV Golf event at the JCB Golf and Country Club in Rocester, England, on July 27, 2024. (Bradley Collyer/PA Images via Getty Images)
This isn’t the first time Rahm has dealt with frustrations from outside factors during a LIV Golf event in his inaugural season.
The use of drones became a problem, and once again, the LIV Golf broadcast picked up his frustrations in real time.
“Every tournament. It’s f—ing incredible,” Rahm could be heard saying over the broadcast after hooking his drive into a water hazard during LIV Golf Nashville in June. “Right on my backswing, these f—ing drones every time.”
LIV Golf offers a modern alternative to the traditional PGA Tour, and its appeal to a different demographic has been music and cheering on certain holes throughout the year, among other factors.
Jon Rahm is shown during the second day of the LIV Golf event at the JCB Golf and Country Club in Rocester, England, on July 27, 2024. (Bradley Collyer/PA Images via Getty Images)
However, no golfer wants to hear something during their backswing, unless they know the cheering is coming beforehand.
Rahm wasn’t happy at the moment, but in the end, he overcame that bogey in Saturday’s 1-under round to pick up the victory.
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Angel City, which has made community work part of the soccer club’s core mission, has launched a project designed to make the sport available at little or no cost to approximately 14,000 kids between the ages of 5 and 17 at more than 100 Los Angeles Department of Recreation and Parks sites.
The Angel City Impact Fund’s goal, the team said, is to overcome the significant challenges young girls and gender-expansive youth face in the soccer ecosystem. Over the next two years, the team said, the program will provide access to soccer, leadership training and other skills to thousands of children across the city.
The team, which created the initiative in consultation with many of its long-term supporters, announced the program Sunday in Paris, a day ahead of the team’s Equity Summit.
Since its inception in 2020, Angel City has reallocated 10% of all sponsorship revenue to community initiatives and programs, putting more than $3.5 million directly into projects affecting nearly 160,000 Angelenos. That earned it the humanitarian team of the year awards at this month’s ESPYs.
Establishing the Angel City Impact Fund as the team’s nonprofit arm will allow it to expand that work by inviting the community to inform and invest in flagship initiatives.
“We thought what could we accomplish if we went after that?” said Catherine Dávila, the team’s head of community and marketing. “This partnership could significantly expand our impact.
“This is a long-term play.”
Dávila said the initial budget for the program is $1.3 million a year over three years. The money for that will come not from the team and its sponsors but from Angel City’s first efforts at fundraising from its fans and the community.
Dávila said five supporters have already pledged $10,000 or more, but the fundraising model will allow for any size donation.
“It lets our fans invest in the club for $24 a month or $24 a year,” she said.
Among the early donors is Justin Morrow, who won two Supporters’ Shields and a league title during eight seasons in MLS and is now head of sports partnerships and programs at the USC Race and Equity Center.
The initiative will tackle issues including a lack of representation among coaches, especially those identifying as Black, indigenous or people of color, female, or gender expansive; prohibitive participation costs of $5,000 or more for elite soccer programs, a barrier that disproportionately affects families in under-resourced communities; and the absence of dedicated spaces and programs designed explicitly for girls and gender-expansive youth.
The trade deadline is when teams tell you what they really think.
The optimistic palaver of the offseason has faded, replaced by real talk: Are we in or are we out?
With Major League Baseball’s trade deadline looming on July 30, here is The Athletic’s Trade Deadline Big Board — 50 players who may change teams in the next week-plus and change destinies come October. Two of the last six World Series MVPs, after all, were deadline acquisitions.
We’ve decided to be liberal with our inclusions here, thinking it better to include a big name who isn’t traded than to overlook one who is. Scan the sport’s recent history and you’ll find plenty of players who were certain to stay put on July 22 instead wearing a new uniform by the start of August. The deadline forces teams to be decisive and creative, which is one of the reasons we love it so much. It’s a time of year that actually merits so many bold predictions.
The context of this specific deadline amplifies that uncertainty. The National League wild-card picture is a muddle, with six teams owning postseason odds between 20 percent and 50 percent, according to FanGraphs. The American League isn’t that much more settled, with a wide-open AL West and a couple of surprising teams right in the thick of the wild-card hunt. The next week should — should — offer some clarity for those teams to make the in-or-out decision.
Some bookkeeping: The player’s listed age is how old he was on June 30, the stats are updated through the All-Star break, the WAR is from FanGraphs, the contract info from Baseball Prospectus, the likelihood of being dealt is a best-guess projection (from red to yellow to green) and the rankings are beyond reproach.
1. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Tigers
Positional ranking: No. 1 SP
Age: 27
Contract status: Owed $900,000 in 2024, then arbitration eligible through 2026
First-half stats: 10-3, 2.41 ERA, 30.8 K%, 4.6 BB%, 3.4 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟡
Tarik Skubal got healthy and broke through as one of the best handful of pitchers in baseball, leading the majors in ERA and ranking third in strikeout rate since the beginning of last season by pounding the zone with high-octane, bat-missing raw stuff. With two more years of team control remaining, the questions are how likely the Tigers think contending in 2025 and 2026 will be and whether they have any shot of extending him. Skubal would fetch a massive trade haul, but at 27 he’s also precisely the type of Cy Young-Award-level stud any team should be trying to build around.
Potential landing spots:
BAL,
LAD,
NYY
2. Garrett Crochet, LHP, White Sox
Positional ranking: No. 2 SP
Age: 25
Contract status: Owed $533,000 in 2024, then arbitration eligible through 2026
First-half stats: 6-6, 3.08 ERA, 35.2 K%, 5.4 BB%, 3.9 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟢
Garrett Crochet was an eye-opening pick to be the Opening Day starter for the White Sox, given that, well, he’d never started any major-league game before. But in the months since, he’s emerged as one of the AL’s best left-handed pitchers and easily the best thing happening on the South Side of Chicago. Naturally, that makes him a prime candidate to be moved for a team with the worst record in baseball. Crochet’s relative inexperience complicates the picture a bit: He’s under team control for less time than you’d think, and it’s unclear how his arm will hold up into August and September, let alone October.
Potential landing spots:
BAL,
LAD,
MIL
3. Isaac Paredes, 3B/1B, Traded to Cubs
Positional ranking: No. 1 Bat
Age: 25
Contract status: Owed $1.1 million in 2024, then arbitration eligible through 2027
First-half stats: .261/.364/.459/.823, 15 HR, 50 RBI, 3.0 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🔴
Would the Rays trade a 25-year-old All-Star under team control through 2027? It’s going to take a gigantic prospect package to even get the conversation going, but if history is any indication, Tampa Bay is always open for business if the price is right, and Isaac Paredes’ salary will rise substantially beginning in 2025. His inclusion on this list is perhaps a moot point, but if Paredes were made available he’d be the market’s top combination of present value and future team-controlled upside as a right-handed slugger around whom lineups can be built.
How Paredes fits with the Cubs: Unlike most players on this list, Paredes appealed to both buyers and sellers because he’s under team control for so long. That’s what makes him a fit for the Cubs, who can build their lineup around his power bat in 2025-27 even if his August and September performance won’t do them much good. Chicago wanted the talent for the long haul, regardless of the team’s current status. — Aaron Gleeman
Required reading
4. Bo Bichette, SS, Blue Jays
Positional ranking: No. 2 Bat
Age: 26
Contract status: Owed $20.2 million through 2025
First-half stats: .221/.274/.320/.595, 4 HR, 30 RBI, 0.2 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟡
It’s not an ideal time for the Blue Jays to shop Bo Bichette given his poor first half, repeated calf injuries and recent trip to the injured list, but he has an established track record of star-caliber play and interested teams know they’d have him signed for 2025 as well. He’d be an especially intriguing target for a team that believes it could sign the 26-year-old to a long-term extension as an infield building block, particularly if the Blue Jays are insisting on a huge return to part with their starting shortstop since 2019.
Potential landing spots:
ATL,
BOS,
LAD
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Kevin Sousa / USA Today)
5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Blue Jays
Positional ranking: No. 3 Bat
Age: 25
Contract status: Owed $6.6 million in 2024, then arbitration eligible through 2025
First-half stats: .288/.361/.456/.816, 14 HR, 55 RBI, 1.5 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🔴
As with Bichette, Toronto can happily hold on to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and try again next year. Or the Jays can dive headfirst into a rebuild by landing a haul of prospects for a four-time All-Star who’s still only 25. While Guerrero hasn’t repeated the 2021 numbers that garnered him an MVP runner-up, he looked close to that version of himself in May and June. He’s a game-changing bat with a chunk of his prime still to go.
Potential landing spots:
HOU,
MIN,
SEA
6. Luis Robert Jr., CF, White Sox
Positional ranking: No. 4 Bat
Age: 26
Contract status: Owed $21.2 million through 2025 with club options for 2026 and 2027
First-half stats: .236/.313/.491/.804, 11 HR, 23 RBI, 1.2 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟡
When healthy, Luis Robert Jr. has been one of the best all-around center fielders in baseball, posting an .825 career OPS with power, speed and strong defense through age 26. However, he’s missed about 40 percent of Chicago’s games since 2021 and the White Sox might still be rebuilding in 2027, his final year of team control. Any team willing to give up a sizable prospect haul for Robert would need to view him as a legit star given his $15 million salary in 2025 and $20 million team options for 2026 and 2027. He’s a risk, but few available players have more long-term upside.
Potential landing spots:
PHI,
SEA,
LAD
7. Mason Miller, RHP, Athletics
Positional ranking: No. 1 RP
Age: 25
Contract status: Owed $200,000 in 2024, then controllable through 2029
First-half stats: 2.27 ERA, 46.7 K%, 9.3 BB%, 150 Stuff+, 1.8 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🔴
It’s almost unheard of for a 25-year-old All-Star pitcher under team control through 2029 to even be considered a potential trade chip, but given the A’s uniquely weird situation, they could be tempted to sell high and stockpile assets. Mason Miller is a spectacularly talented arm, overpowering hitters with a 101 mph fastball and filthy slider, but a great closer can be wasted on a rebuilding team and the A’s need all sorts of long-term help. Miller’s trade value is a fascinating test case with very little precedent.
Potential landing spots:
BAL,
PHI,
LAD
8. Randy Arozarena, LF, Traded to Seattle
Positional ranking: No. 5 Bat
Age: 29
Contract status: Owed $2.7 million in 2024, then arbitration eligible through 2026
First-half stats: .202/.309/.362/.671, 12 HR, 31 RBI, 0.4 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟡
His season totals are underwhelming thanks to an awful first six weeks, but Randy Arozarena has been fairly close to his usual self since mid-May. He’s got 20-homer power and 20-steal speed, supplements a low batting average by drawing walks and has been one of this era’s best October performers, slugging .690 with 11 homers in 33 career playoff games. He had two more seasons of team control left, but Tampa Bay decided to move on from salary set to top $10 million in 2025.
How Arozarena fits with the Mariners: Arozarena is an ideal fit for a hitting-starved Mariners team desperate for any kind of offensive thump. He’ll slot into the heart of Seattle’s lineup, potentially for the next 2 1/2 seasons. Even with his ice-old start, Arozarena’s current 106 OPS+ would rank second on the Mariners. — Aaron Gleeman
Required reading
9. Max Scherzer, RHP, Rangers
Positional ranking: No. 3 SP
Age: 39
Contract status: Owed $4.2 million in 2024, then a free agent
First-half stats: 1-2, 2.96 ERA, 21.7 K%, 3.8 BB%, 0.4 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🔴
Recently returned from the back injury that knocked him out for nearly the first three months, Max Scherzer had looked pretty sharp for the Rangers before a dud over the weekend. There’s an obvious risk/reward calculus baked into trading for a surefire Hall of Famer who turns 40 this week. There are also multiple obstacles in the way of a trade: Texas has to decide to sell, and Scherzer would have to again waive a no-trade clause.
Potential landing spots:
BAL,
LAD,
STL
10. Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets
Positional ranking: No. 6 Bat
Age: 29
Contract status: Owed $6.5 million in 2024, then a free agent
First-half stats: .240/.319/.454/.772, 19 HR, 51 RBI, 1.1 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🔴
At the end of May, Pete Alonso stood a good chance of being the biggest name on the move this deadline. Now, with the Mets back in the wild-card hunt, trading the face of the franchise is a lot less palatable for president of baseball operations David Stearns. In the event things go suddenly and significantly south for New York, well, Alonso could still fetch a nice return in his walk year. It hasn’t been a vintage season for the first baseman; after averaging 44 homers and 111 RBIs in his first five years, he’s on pace for 32 dingers and 86 driven in.
Potential landing spots:
HOU,
MIN,
SEA
11. Nathan Eovaldi, RHP, Rangers
Positional ranking: No. 4 SP
Age: 34
Contract status: Owed $5.3 million in 2024 with vesting player option for 2025
First-half stats: 6-3, 2.97 ERA, 24.5 K%, 6.9 BB%, 1.7 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟡
Nathan Eovaldi has aged remarkably well, pitching as well as ever at 34, and his extensive, excellent playoff track record could make him especially attractive. Of course, it’s also why the Rangers may be hesitant to trade him if they haven’t totally given up on their title defense. Further complicating things is his contract, which adds a $20 million player option for 2025 if he throws at least 160 innings this season, although he’s pitched well enough to possibly turn that down anyway.
Potential landing spots:
STL,
MIN,
HOU
Jack Flaherty (Junfu Han / USA Today)
12. Jack Flaherty, RHP, Tigers
Positional ranking: No. 5 SP
Age: 28
Contract status: Owed $4.7 million in 2024, then a free agent
First-half stats: 6-5, 3.13 ERA, 32.1 K%, 4.3 BB%, 2.1 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟢
Far less complicated than the Skubal decision, trading Jack Flaherty should come down to the Tigers being offered more than the draft pick compensation they’d get if he leaves as a free agent. He’s been a brilliant one-year signing, resurrecting his career and looking every bit as good as he did as a young phenom in St. Louis. Even with some injury question marks, Flaherty will be one of the most sought-after pitching rentals on the market.
Potential landing spots:
NYY,
HOU,
MIL
13. Yandy Díaz, 1B, Rays
Positional ranking: No. 7 Bat
Age: 32
Contract status: Owed $12.7 million through 2025 with club option for 2026
First-half stats: .273/.329/.396/.726, 8 HR, 46 RBI, 0.8 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟡
Yandy Díaz isn’t a prototypical slugging first baseman, but he’s produced a 130 OPS+ in six seasons with the Rays, including winning the batting title in 2023. His first-half numbers were down, a possible concern with a 32-year-old owed $10 million in 2025, but Díaz is an underrated player who crushes left-handed pitching and has the flexibility to bounce over to third base in a pinch if needed.
Potential landing spots:
NYY,
SEA,
HOU
14. Jesús Luzardo, LHP, Marlins
Positional ranking: No. 6 SP
Age: 26
Contract status: Owed $1.8 million in 2024, then arbitration eligible through 2026
First-half stats: 3-6, 5.00 ERA, 21.2 K%, 8.0 BB%, 0.6 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟡
After his full-season breakout in 2023, Jesús Luzardo’s year has been, like everything for the 2024 Marlins, a disappointment. He’s made just a dozen uneven starts, and he’s currently on the 60-day IL with a back issue. Nevertheless, Luzardo, 26, has top-of-the-rotation stuff and is under team control for two seasons beyond this one.
Potential landing spots:
BAL,
HOU,
LAD
15. Christian Walker, 1B, Diamondbacks
Positional ranking: No. 8 Bat
Age: 33
Contract status: Owed $3.6 million in 2024, then a free agent
First-half stats: .264/.373/.495/.837, 22 HR, 66 RBI, 2.9 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟡
Few players in the game have been as overlooked in the last few years as Christian Walker, who ranks fourth in WAR at first base dating to 2020. He brings power at the plate and a slick glove at first. He’s a guy who can help deepen the middle of most any order from the right side. Like more than half the National League, the Diamondbacks currently straddle the buy/sell line.
Potential landing spots:
HOU,
MIL,
NYY
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (Sam Navarro / USA Today)
16. Jazz Chisholm Jr., CF/2B, Traded to New York Yankees
Positional ranking: No. 9 Bat
Age: 26
Contract status: Owed $900,000 in 2024, then arbitration eligible through 2026
First-half stats: .249/.321/.407/.727, 12 HR, 42 RBI, 1.4 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟢
The Marlins appear poised for a deeper rebuild, and Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s positional versatility — he can help a team at second base or in center field — should make him an appealing target. The 26-year-old hasn’t backed up his breakout 2022 season in either of the last two years, loitering around the league average as a hitter. Chisholm’s OPS this season is almost 100 points better away from Miami.
How Chisholm fits with the Yankees: Chisholm figures to play the infield in New York a lot more often than he did recently in Miami, where he was almost exclusively a center fielder this season and last season. In particular, the Yankees may view him as the 2025 replacement at second base for Gleyber Torres, an impending free agent. And although his 101 OPS+ at the time of the trade is mediocre, it would still rank fourth in a Yankees lineup that has struggled to get production beyond Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. — Aaron Gleeman
Required reading
17. Yusei Kikuchi, LHP, Blue Jays
Positional ranking: No. 7 SP
Age: 33
Contract status: Owed $3.3 million in 2024, then a free agent
First-half stats: 4-8, 4.42 ERA, 26.0 K%, 5.8 BB%, 2.0 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟢
Yusei Kikuchi has been good rather than great in three seasons with the Blue Jays, putting together dominant stretches only to struggle for weeks at a time. Still, his high strikeout rate and demonstrated ability to pitch like an All-Star for stretches is likely enough to make him one of the most sought-after rental starters available. He would fit nicely in the No. 3 or No. 4 spot of most contending rotations, but might not appeal to every team as a reliable playoff rotation option against righty-heavy lineups.
Potential landing spots:
HOU,
MIN,
STL
18. Cody Bellinger, CF/1B/RF, Cubs
Positional ranking: No. 10 Bat
Age: 28
Contract status: Owed $9.2 million in 2024 with player options for 2025 and 2026
First-half stats: .269/.331/.410/.742, 9 HR, 37 RBI, 1.1 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🔴
One of the sport’s toughest evaluations is thus one of its toughest trade targets: Which version of Cody Bellinger do you most believe in? How healthy will he be following a broken finger? Just how many games of Bellinger might you be trading for? All those factors, combined with the Cubs’ still-beating chances in the NL, conspire against a deal involving the one-time MVP. Desperate teams, however, have made crazier moves.
Potential landing spots:
ARI,
ATL,
SEA
19. Brent Rooker, DH/OF, Athletics
Positional ranking: No. 11 Bat
Age: 29
Contract status: Owed $300,000 in 2024, then arbitration eligible through 2027
First-half stats: .291/.369/.573/.942, 21 HR, 62 RBI, 3.0 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟢
No one has ever doubted Brent Rooker’s raw power, and he finally got an extended chance in Oakland, where he’s performed at an All-Star level for two seasons. He’s strictly a designated hitter, but plenty of lineups could find room for a righty bat with 30-homer power and, because of his lack of early opportunities, he’s under team control for three more seasons. He could be one of the most underrated hitters on the move this deadline.
Potential landing spots:
ATL,
CLE,
KC
Tanner Scott (Jim Rassol / USA Today)
20. Tanner Scott, LHP, Marlins
Positional ranking: No. 2 RP
Age: 29
Contract status: Owed $1.9 million in 2024, then a free agent
First-half stats: 1.34 ERA, 27.6 K%, 15.3 BB%, 143 Stuff+, 0.6 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟢
By FanGraphs’ WAR, the best reliever in baseball since the start of the 2023 season? That would be Tanner Scott, with an ERA hovering around 2.00 in that time and a strikeout rate approaching one-third of opposing hitters. The lefty’s stuff has never been in doubt; it’s always been about how many free passes he’d hand out along the way. He suppressed those walks better last year than this year, his rate climbing close to 15 percent again.
Potential landing spots:
BAL,
LAD,
NYM
21. Erick Fedde, RHP, White Sox
Positional ranking: No. 8 SP
Age: 31
Contract status: Owed $10 million through 2025
First-half stats: 7-3, 2.99 ERA, 21.6 K%, 6.6 BB%, 2.7 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟢
Erick Fedde reinvented himself in South Korea, winning MVP honors and then returning to MLB on a two-year, $15 million deal that now has the last-place White Sox primed to get some real value in exchange. While not quite a front-line arm, this version of Fedde looks like a solid mid-rotation starter and next year’s $7.5 million salary is a bargain even if he regresses a bit.
Potential landing spots:
HOU,
STL,
ATL
22. Paul Sewald, RHP, Diamondbacks
Positional ranking: No. 3 RP
Age: 34
Contract status: Owed $2.4 million in 2024, then a free agent
First-half stats: 3.38 ERA, 24.4 K%, 4.9 BB%, 111 Stuff+, 0.1 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟡
Added to the Arizona bullpen last July, Paul Sewald was a stalwart in October for the Snakes. He’s been more pedestrian so far this season, with a lower strikeout rate and an issue keeping the ball in the yard. On the other hand, his WHIP still starts with a decimal point thanks to a slashed walk rate.
Potential landing spots:
BAL,
CHC,
NYY
23. Ryan McMahon, 3B, Rockies
Positional ranking: No. 12 Bat
Age: 29
Contract status: Owed $48 million through 2027
First-half stats: .272/.350/.447/.797, 14 HR, 45 RBI, 2.2 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟡
Ryan McMahon is in the midst of his finest major-league season, earning his first All-Star nod by delivering above-average offense to accompany his sparkling defense at the hot corner. He’s going to swing-and-miss and he’s going to strike out more than you’d like, but McMahon’s long history of hitting the ball with authority is finally paying off in tangible results.
Potential landing spots:
LAD,
NYY,
SEA
24. Jason Adam, RHP, Traded to San Diego
Positional ranking: No. 4 RP
Age: 32
Contract status: Owed $900,000 in 2024, then arbitration eligible through 2026
First-half stats: 1.67 ERA, 27.5 K%, 8.8 BB%, 130 Stuff+
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟡
Jason Adam is the latest in a long line of journeyman pitchers to find success in the Rays’ bullpen. And, like many of those before him, he could become trade bait now that he’s 32 and starting to get costly. Adam’s strikeout rate is down a bit this season, but he’s throwing harder than ever and his ERA is under 2.00 for the second time in three years with Tampa Bay.
How Adam fits with the Padres: San Diego’s bullpen has been a season-long weakness, ranking 21st in ERA and 29th in Win Probability Added. Adam had a 2.30 ERA with 194 strikeouts in 164 2/3 innings for the Rays over the past three seasons, and the Padres can slot him into a high-leverage role for 2025 and 2026 as well. — Aaron Gleeman
Required reading
25. Luis Rengifo, 3B/2B, Angels
Positional ranking: No. 13 Bat
Age: 27
Contract status: Owed $1.5 million in 2024, then arbitration eligible through 2025
First-half stats: .315/.358/.442/.800, 6 HR, 25 RBI, 1.5 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟡
Assuming he returns from a wrist injury before the deadline, Luis Rengifo could be one of the more undervalued hitters on the move. He’s a switch hitter who can play anywhere in the infield and he’s batted .275 with a .762 OPS since 2022. He’d be a quality regular or an exceptional utility player, and he’s under control in 2025.
Potential landing spots:
NYY,
SEA,
LAD
Zach Eflin (Charles LeClaire / USA Today)
26. Zach Eflin, RHP, Traded to Baltimore
Positional ranking: No. 9 SP
Age: 30
Contract status: Owed $22.7 million through 2025
First-half stats: 5-6, 3.99 ERA, 18.9 K%. 2.2 BB%, 1.6 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟡
As usual in Tampa Bay, money could be a factor with Zach Eflin set to make $18 million in 2025. In fact, it’s possible the Rays backloaded his three-year contract with the intention of shopping him before then, not unlike what they did with Tyler Glasnow. Teams with decent-sized payrolls could simply see Eflin as a solid, strike-throwing mid-rotation starter with a market-rate contract, making him enticing.
How Eflin fits with the Orioles: Eflin’s guaranteed $18 million salary for 2025 made him too expensive for Tampa Bay, but Baltimore has the cleanest 2025 payroll books of any contender. Eflin helps fill the Orioles’ current and future need for rotation help, and does so without using up enough prospect capital that would lessen their ability to land a bigger-name starter. — Aaron Gleeman
Required reading
27. Pete Fairbanks, RHP, Rays
Positional ranking: No. 5 RP
Age: 30
Contract status: Owed $5.9 million through 2025 with a club option for 2026
First-half stats: 3.21 ERA, 23.0 K%, 10.8 BB%, 124 Stuff+, 0.5 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟡
Another product of Tampa Bay’s reliever factory, Pete Fairbanks has served as the Rays’ primary closer for the past two-plus seasons. His durability has been an issue and his strikeout rate has declined sharply this season along with a 2 mph drop in fastball velocity. Even if he’s more of a setup-caliber reliever at this point, his $3.7 million salary for 2025 and $7 million team option for 2026 would be attractive.
Potential landing spots:
PHI,
HOU,
BAL
28. Danny Jansen, C, Traded to Boston
Positional ranking: No. 14 Bat
Age: 29
Contract status: Owed $1.7 million in 2024, then a free agent
First-half stats: .223/.316/.391/.707, 6 HR, 17 RBI, 0.9 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟢
Upgrading behind the plate can be nearly impossible at the deadline, and Danny Jansen figures to be the clear-cut best catcher available. His weak arm could scare off some teams, but he’s a solid pitch framer and has posted an average-or-better OPS in four straight seasons. Compared to the household-name big bats, he’s not exciting, but compared to the bleak catcher market he could be a relatively hot commodity. And the Blue Jays will want to get what they can for the impending free agent.
How Jansen fits with the Red Sox: Connor Wong has been one of the biggest bright spots of the Red Sox’s season, but backup catcher Reese McGuire ranks among MLB’s worst hitters and has a combined .650 OPS since 2021. Jansen has slumped recently, but he has a .774 OPS during that same period and is a clear upgrade over McGuire, with a lot more ability to push Wong for playing time. — Aaron Gleeman
Required reading
29. J.D. Martinez, DH, Mets
Positional ranking: No. 15 Bat
Age: 36
Contract status: Owed $3.2 million in 2024, then a free agent
First-half stats: .263/.349/.457/.806, 10 HR, 38 RBI, 1.2 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟡
While his slugging numbers are down from his 30-homer season with the Dodgers in 2023, J.D. Martinez remains a valuable and vital middle-of-the-order presence for the Mets. He’s once again been lauded for what he brings to hitters’ meetings and pregame prep, and thus Martinez will only hit the block if New York sputters between now and July 30.
Potential landing spots:
BOS,
CLE,
TEX
30. Chris Bassitt, RHP, Blue Jays
Positional ranking: No. 10 SP
Age: 35
Contract status: Owed $30 million through 2025
First-half stats: 8-7, 3.52 ERA, 21.3 K%, 9.6 BB%, 1.0 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟡
Assuming the Blue Jays decide to deal away more than just impending free agents, the 35-year-old Chris Bassitt, who has a limited no-trade clause, is a no-brainer to cash in. This is his seventh straight year with a sub-3.85 ERA, and next season’s $22 million salary is roughly the going rate for a second or third starter in free agency, without requiring a long commitment.
Potential landing spots:
STL,
HOU,
LAD
Carlos Estévez (Jayne Kamin-Oncea / USA Today)
31. Carlos Estévez, RHP, Traded to Philadelphia
Positional ranking: No. 6 RP
Age: 31
Contract status: Owed $2.3 million in 2024, then a free agent
First-half stats: 2.61 ERA, 27.2 K%, 3.5 BB%, 108 Stuff+, 0.9 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟢
As a reliable late-inning reliever and impending free agent closing for an obvious seller, Carlos Estévez is one of the safer bets to be on the move. He’d probably fit better as a setup man on a contender, but Estévez has sliced his walk rate at age 31 and he can be used in key spots versus both righties and lefties.
How Estévez fits with the Phillies: Estévez fills the bullpen hole created by trading Seranthony Domínguez to the Orioles, and perhaps more accurately fills the high-leverage void created by Domínguez often struggling before the trade. Estévez can handle a setup or closer role, giving manager Rob Thomson the ability to mix-and-match in the late innings. — Aaron Gleeman
Required reading
32. Joc Pederson, DH, Diamondbacks
Positional ranking: No. 16 Bat
Age: 32
Contract status: Owed $6.2 million through 2024, then a mutual option for 2025
First-half stats: .273/.374/.498/.871, 13 HR, 39 RBI, 1.7 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟡
Joc Pederson is running back his 2022 season, when he was an All-Star for San Francisco. You can’t expect to play him in the field much, and under no circumstances should he bat against a left-handed pitcher. But stick him in the right role, and he mashes.
Potential landing spots:
ATL,
CLE,
KC
33. Blake Snell, LHP, Giants
Positional ranking: No. 11 SP
Age: 31
Contract status: Owed $5 million in 2024, then a player option for 2025
First-half stats: 0-3, 6.31 ERA, 26.6 K%, 10.8 BB%, 0.5 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🔴
All offseason, teams balked at Snell’s asking price off a Cy Young Award-winning season, forcing him to accept a less-than-expected offer from the Giants. After he posted an ERA above 6.00 in the first half, why would anyone decide he’s now worth the contract? Well, Snell does have an established track record of pitching much better after the All-Star break each year, and the deadline inspires some creative — read: desperate — machinations.
Potential landing spots:
HOU,
LAD,
STL
34. Frankie Montas, RHP, Reds
Positional ranking: No. 12 SP
Age: 31
Contract status: Owed $6.7 million through 2024, then a mutual option for 2025
First-half stats: 4-7, 4.38 ERA, 19.1 K%, 9.7 BB%, 0.8 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟡
A deadline prize for the Yankees in 2022 before a shoulder injury, Frankie Montas’ return to a regular rotation role this season has been fine. While he hasn’t rekindled his form from his days with Oakland, he’s been a serviceable arm for Cincinnati (albeit in losses, often) and could help stabilize someone else’s rotation.
Potential landing spots:
MIL,
MIN,
STL
35. Luis Severino, RHP, Mets
Positional ranking: No. 13 SP
Age: 30
Contract status: Owed $4.3 million in 2024, then a free agent
First-half stats: 6-3, 3.78 ERA, 17.8 K%, 8.1 BB%, 1.0 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟡
While the Mets’ resurgence likely prevents them from a full-scale selloff of bigger pieces like Alonso, there is a narrow pathway — I don’t know, like the eye of a needle, where the thread goes — for New York to stay a contender despite dealing from a surplus of starters. That’s where Luis Severino fits in. His embrace of earlier contact to last deeper into games has necessarily lowered his strikeout rate — a shift in approach that could give some teams pause.
Potential landing spots:
CLE,
MIL,
MIN
36. John Brebbia, RHP, White Sox
Positional ranking: No. 7 RP
Age: 34
Contract status: Owed $3.3 million through 2024 with a mutual option for 2025
First-half stats: 4.50 ERA, 30.0 K%, 5.6 BB%, 105 Stuff+, 0.8 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟢
From June 1 through the All-Star break, John Brebbia could lay claim to being the sport’s best reliever. He owns MLB’s best WAR out of the bullpen, and his strikeout rate for the season has now reached the 30-percent threshold. So look past that pedestrian ERA the way some enterprising team will in the next week and change.
Potential landing spots:
BAL,
NYM,
NYY
37. Lucas Erceg, RHP, Athletics
Positional ranking: No. 8 RP
Age: 29
Contract status: Owed $300,000 in 2024, then controllable through 2029
First-half stats: 2.94 ERA, 26.8 K%, 8.5 BB%, 111 Stuff+, 0.3 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟡
Based on his remaining team control, the A’s shouldn’t be motivated to trade Lucas Erceg, but the converted infielder is already 29 years old and Oakland selling on an ascending reliever would make plenty of sense. Erceg has electric raw stuff, led by a triple-digit sinker, and he’s made big strides with control in his first full season as a big-league reliever.
Potential landing spots:
BAL,
SEA,
HOU
38. Trevor Rogers, LHP, Marlins
Positional ranking: No. 14 SP
Age: 26
Contract status: Owed $500,000 in 2024, then arbitration eligible through 2026
First-half stats: 1-9, 4.72 ERA, 18.4 K%, 10.2 BB%, 0.6 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟡
Now three years removed from his sparkling rookie season, Trevor Rogers’ upside is no longer as tantalizing as it once was. Even this year’s mediocre results have come with another dip in strikeout rate to below the league average. But, a team can still dream on his combination of a competent floor with additional years of team control in his late 20s.
Potential landing spots:
BAL,
CLE,
STL
39. Harrison Bader, CF, Mets
Positional ranking: No. 17 Bat
Age: 30
Contract status: Owed $3.2 million in 2024, then a free agent
First-half stats: .273/.312/.420/.733, 8 HR, 36 RBI, 1.6 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟡
Always a standout defender in center, Harrison Bader is in the midst of his best offensive season since 2021 and his healthiest season ever — he’s on pace to play in a career-high 144 games. He’s rewarded the Mets’ belief that he could be an everyday player, delivering an .800 OPS against righties that’s more than 100 points above his career mark entering the season.
Potential landing spots:
ARI,
LAD,
PIT
40. Michael Conforto, LF/RF, Giants
Positional ranking: No. 18 Bat
Age: 31
Contract status: Owed $6 million in 2024, then a free agent
First-half stats: .237/.310/.438/.748, 10 HR, 39 RBI, 0.7 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟡
A pair of serious shoulder injuries — one to each side — now limit Michael Conforto’s ceiling; don’t go expecting the kind of 6-WAR pace he played on during the abbreviated 2020 season. Now into his 30s, he’s a professional hitter who lengthens a lineup rather than anchors it. He’s been solid this year against lefties, though that goes against his career track record.
Potential landing spots:
ATL,
CLE,
SEA
Elias Díaz (Katie Stratman / USA Today)
41. Elias Díaz, C, Rockies
Positional ranking: No. 19 Bat
Age: 33
Contract status: Owed $2 million in 2024, then a free agent
First-half stats: .286/.330/.403/.733, 5 HR, 30 RBI, 0.9 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟢
The 2023 All-Star Game MVP is having another decent year at the plate, providing league-average offense at a position that lacks many such options. Always a good thrower behind the plate, Elias Díaz has made real strides with his framing, moving from the bottom 10 in baseball to a tie for 11th so far this season. Provided he can learn a new staff on the fly, he can be a weapon defensively.
Potential landing spots:
CHC,
PIT,
TEX
42. Taylor Ward, LF, Angels
Positional ranking: No. 20 Bat
Age: 30
Contract status: Owed $1.6 million in 2024, then arbitration eligible through 2026
First-half stats: .228/.312/.401/.713, 14 HR, 44 RBI, 0.8 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟢
Something of a late bloomer, Taylor Ward has two more seasons of team control remaining despite already being 30. However, he’s been unable to repeat his 2022 breakout, with merely league-average production since then that should make most contenders view him as a high-end platoon option versus left-handers instead of an everyday asset in an outfield corner.
Potential landing spots:
CLE,
KC,
PIT
43. Jesse Winker, LF, Traded to Mets
Positional ranking: No. 21 Bat
Age: 30
Contract status: Owed $700,000 in 2024, then a free agent
First-half stats: .260/.374/.432/.806, 11 HR, 43 RBI, 1.3 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟢
The Nationals have done it again, plucking a notable name off the scrap heap and turning them into decent deadline fodder. It was Kyle Schwarber two years ago, Jeimer Candelario last year, and Jesse Winker this year, hoping he pays off the bounce-back campaign as handsomely this winter as his predecessors. Like Joc Pederson, he’s best suited to a platoon and the DH spot.
How Winker fits with the Mets: At the very least, Winker provides a sizable upgrade over a struggling DJ Stewart as a bench bat for the Mets. He’s got a good chance of being a regular at least against righties, given the uncertain timeline of Starling Marte’s return from a bone bruise — and Marte’s pedestrian numbers versus right-handed pitching regardless. — Tim Britton
Required reading
44. Yimi García, RHP, Traded to Seattle
Positional ranking: No. 9 RP
Age: 33
Contract status: Owed $2 million in 2024, then a free agent
First-half stats: 2.57 ERA, 34.6 K%, 6.5 BB%, 119 Stuff+, 0.7 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟢
Fresh off the injured list and in the final season of a three-year deal, Yimi García is an obvious arm for the Blue Jays to move. He’s unlikely to be atop any wish lists, but García’s high-90s fastball and 3.48 ERA since 2019 would slot nicely into a setup role at what figures to be a reasonable price tag.
How García fits with the Mariners: Seattle’s bullpen ranks near the middle of the pack in both ERA and Win Probability Added, so adding García gives the Mariners another setup-caliber right-hander to use in front of closer Andrés Muñoz, filling the role of Ryne Stanek, who was traded to the Mets. — Aaron Gleeman
Required reading
45. Kyle Finnegan, RHP, Nationals
Positional ranking: No. 10 RP
Age: 32
Contract status: Owed $1.7 million in 2024, then arbitration eligible through 2025
First-half stats: 2.45 ERA, 26.1 K%, 8.1 BB%, 101 Stuff+, 0.2 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟢
Kyle Finnegan earned a trip to the All-Star Game for the first time thanks to an ERA not fully supported by underlying metrics. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is below .220 and his strand rate above 85 percent; regression is coming. Even so, that should be regression back to just-better-than-league-average results, which would fit nicely in the seventh or eighth inning for plenty of contenders.
Potential landing spots:
ARI,
NYM,
TEX
Lane Thomas (Daniel Kucin Jr. / USA Today)
46. Lane Thomas, RF, Nationals
Positional ranking: No. 22 Bat
Age: 28
Contract status: Owed $700,000 in 2024, then arbitration eligible through 2025
First-half stats: .252/.318/.404/.722, 8 HR, 38 RBI, 0.6 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟢
The Nationals hung on to Lane Thomas last summer, despite a career-best season that should have boosted his value. His OPS is down 120 points from this time last year, and he comes with one fewer year of team control. So he’s not going to bring back a top-100 prospect or the like. However, Thomas does everything well enough, and he can be a nice fit for a team looking for a higher floor from a corner outfielder.
Potential landing spots:
KC,
PIT,
SEA
47. Michael Kopech, RHP, White Sox
Positional ranking: No. 11 RP
Age: 28
Contract status: Owed $1 million in 2024, then arbitration eligible through 2025
First-half stats: 5.05 ERA, 30.9 K%, 12.7 BB%, 143 Stuff+, -0.3 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟢
It’s just not going to happen for Michael Kopech in Chicago, but surely some team is convinced it can fix a former top-20 prospect with a triple-digit fastball and 12 strikeouts per nine innings. Whether starting or relieving, he’s been doomed by too many homers and walks, but Kopech is an obvious buy-low candidate with another full season of team control remaining.
Potential landing spots:
LAD,
HOU,
MIL
48. Justin Turner, DH, Blue Jays
Positional ranking: No. 23 Bat
Age: 39
Contract status: Owed $4.3 million in 2024, then a free agent
First-half stats: .230/.334/.343/.678, 5 HR, 29 RBI, -0.1 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟢
It’s possible Justin Turner is cooked at age 39, but his track record and playoff experience could still be appealing for contenders in need of an inexpensive lineup boost. Toronto will be a motivated seller, and even with his overall numbers down this season Turner has continued to knock around lefties enough to be a potentially good platoon fit.
Potential landing spots:
PHI,
BOS,
SEA
49. Tyler Anderson, LHP, Angels
Positional ranking: No. 15 SP
Age: 34
Contract status: Owed $17.3 million through 2025
First-half stats: 8-8, 2.97 ERA, 16.8 K%, 9.8 BB%, 1.2 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🟢
Tyler Anderson has made an All-Star team and posted a sub-3.00 ERA in two of the past three seasons despite below-average strikeout rates and so-so underlying metrics. He shouldn’t be counted on at the top of any contender’s rotation, but the soft-tossing southpaw is a solid mid-rotation option with a reasonably priced deal through 2025 and the Angels should be motivated to get what they can for him.
Potential landing spots:
STL,
BOS,
HOU
50. Jordan Montgomery, LHP, Diamondbacks
Positional ranking: No. 16 SP
Age: 31
Contract status: Owed $8.3 million in 2024, then a player option for 2025
First-half stats: 6-5, 6.44 ERA, 15.1 K%, 7.7 BB%, 0.5 WAR
Likelihood of being dealt: 🔴
Like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery’s regular season has been as much of a nightmare as his offseason. He’s still a short time removed from being a Game 1 starter for a World Series winner, and the 2025 player option that maxes out at $25 million isn’t inherently disqualifying for a player of his caliber. It’s just tough to see someone pulling this specific lever now, especially with the Diamondbacks in the hunt and Montgomery out for most of the last month with knee inflammation.
Potential landing spots:
HOU,
LAD,
MIN
GO DEEPER
MLB front offices under the most pressure — and the least — this trade deadline
GO DEEPER
MLB Trade Deadline Tiers: Which teams could be — and should be — aggressive buyers and sellers
GO DEEPER
Ranking the 10 best MLB trade deadlines for teams over the last decade
(Top image: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic. Photos: Garrett Crochet: Jamie Sabau / Getty Images; Tarik Skubal: Griffin Quinn / MLB Photos / Getty Images; Randy Arozarena: Andrew Mordzynski / Icon Sportswire / Getty Images)
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