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Tale of The Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Virginia

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Tale of The Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Virginia


LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Louisville (13-5, 6-1 ACC) is set to face Virginia (8-9, 1-5 ACC) on Saturday, Jan. 18 at 12:00 p.m. EST at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Ky. Here’s how the Cardinals stack up against the Cavaliers:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Virginia

Louisville

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AP/USAT

NR/NR

RV/RV

SOS

39th

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6th

SOR

123rd

27th

BPI

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111th

40th

NET

139th

28th

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RPI

129th

14th

KenPom

132nd

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30th

Torvik

122nd

29th

EvanMiya

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134th

27th

Virginia

Louisville

Points

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Isaac McKneely (11.9)

Chucky Hepburn (15.6)

Rebounds

Jacob Cofie (5.4)

J’Vonne Hadley (7.8)

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Assists

Andrew Rohde (3.5)

Chucky Hepburn (5.7)

Steals

Andrew Rohde (1.3)

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Chucky Hepburn (2.5)

Blocks

Blake Buchanan (1.1)

James Scott (0.8)

Virginia

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Louisville

Points Per Game

61.0

78.2

Field Goal %

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42.7%

43.7%

FGM/FGA Per Game

21.6/50.6

26.4/60.5

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Three Point %

35.5%

30.9%

3PTM/3PTA Per Game

7.7/21.7

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9.6/30.9

Free Throw %

75.4%

72.4

FTM/FTA Per Game

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10.1/13.4

15.8/21.8

Virginia

Louisville

Rebounds Per Game

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30.7

38.5

Off. Reb. Per Game

6.9

12.7

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Def. Reb. Per Game

23.8

25.8

Rebound Margin

-3.1

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5.2

Virginia

Louisville

Opp. Points Per Game

63.4

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69.7

Opp. FG%

41.1%

43.7%

Opp. 3PT%

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32.5%

34.8%

Steals Per Game

5.1

6.9

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Blocks Per Game

3.9

3.0

Turnovers Forced Per Game

9.6

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13.5

Virginia

Louisville

Assists Per Game

14.2

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13.7

Turnovers Per Game

11.0

11.6

Turnovers Margin

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-1.4

1.9

Assist/Turnover Ratio

1.3

1.2

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– ESPN Prediction: Per ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, Louisville has a 87.8 percent chance to win against Virginia. The Cardinals have a BPI rating of 12.1 (40th overall), whereas the Cavaliers have a BPI rating of 3.3 (111th overall).

– KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 90 percent chance to take down the Cavaliers, with a projected final score of 71-57 in favor of Louisville. Louisville has an adjusted efficiency margin of +19.32 (30th overall), whereas Virginia has an adjusted efficiency margin of +2.35 (132nd overall).

– Torvik Prediction: Per BartTorvik.com, the Cards have a 91 percent chance to take down the Hoos, with a projected final score of 69-56 in favor of Louisville. Louisville has a “Barthag” of .8957 (29th overall), whereas Virginia has a “Barthag” of .5931 (122nd overall).

(Photo of Noah Waterman: Mark Konezny – Imagn Images)

You can follow Louisville Cardinals On SI for future coverage by liking us on Facebook, Twitter/X and Instagram:

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Facebook – @LouisvilleOnSI
Twitter/X – @LouisvilleOnSI
Instagram – @louisvilleonsi

You can also follow Deputy Editor Matthew McGavic at @Matt_McGavic on Twitter/X and @mattmcgavic.bsky.social on Bluesky





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Virginia

Virginia homeowner shoots intruder during attempted break-in

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Virginia homeowner shoots intruder during attempted break-in


A Fairfax County homeowner shot a man attempting to break into his home early Wednesday morning, authorities said. 

Virginia home invasion investigation

The backstory:

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The incident occurred in the Lake Barcroft area of Falls Church.

Fairfax County Police reported that the suspect tried to break into two homes in the neighborhood before being shot at the front door of the second house. The incident unfolded around 2:30 a.m. on Oakwood Drive, where the homeowner was on the phone with a 911 dispatcher when he opened fire, striking the intruder multiple times.

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Ring video footage from a neighbor across the street captured the aftermath of the shooting. 

What they’re saying:

The homeowner declined to comment when approached, but neighbors shared their concerns about safety.

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“It’s usually a really safe area,” said Haley Wilson, a neighbor. “My family lives around here… but you’ve got to be safe. Cameras, nice locks — they help.”

Another neighbor, who preferred to remain anonymous, noted that crime in the area has gradually increased. 

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“We’ve been living here for 25 years, and it’s like little stuff—cars getting fussed with—that’s become more frequent in the last three or four years.”

Who is the suspect? 

Big picture view:

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Police confirmed that the same suspect attempted to break into another nearby home shortly before the shooting. No injuries were reported at the first house.

The suspect is currently hospitalized with life-threatening injuries and will face charges once his condition improves, police said.

The Source: The information in this report comes from the Fairfax County Police Department. 

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Crime in the DMVFairfax County



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Small earthquake rattles part of Virginia and more state headlines • Virginia Mercury

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Small earthquake rattles part of Virginia and more state headlines • Virginia Mercury


• “Small earthquake rattles part of Virginia.” — The Washington Post

• “Virginia man pleads not guilty to stockpiling largest number of homemade bombs in FBI history.” — WTOP

• “Conviction stands in Fairfax officer’s case for shooting unarmed man during mall chase.” — WJLA

• “Virginia vehicles to receive new sticker after passing safety inspections in 2025.” — WRIC

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• “Wawa expanding into Virginia’s I-81 corridor.” — WDBJ

GET THE MORNING HEADLINES.

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SMU star Boopie Miller stuns Virginia with wild buzzer-beater

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SMU star Boopie Miller stuns Virginia with wild buzzer-beater


SMU pulled off a 54-52 win at Virginia thanks to Boopie MIller’s heroics on Wednesday night. (Amber Searls-Imagn Images)

March came early for Boopie Miller and SMU.

The Mustangs absolutely stunned Virginia on Wednesday night at John Paul Jones Arena after Miller drained a ridiculous fade-away 3-pointer right before the buzzer. The shot, which sent him falling into his own bench before a massive celebration broke out to quiet the Charlottesville crowd, lifted SMU to a 54-52 win.

The bucket was just the second of the night that Miller hit from behind the arc. He finished with 12 points and six rebounds to lead the Mustangs, who improved to 13-4 on the season and 4-2 in ACC play. Miller, a junior, has averaged a team-high 14.6 points and 5.9 assists per game this season.

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The game was a defensive battle through and through. The Mustangs took a two-point lead at halftime, and then were held scoreless for a nearly five minute stretch late in the second half — which allowed Virginia to jump back ahead by five points after its long 12-0 run.

But Miller hit his first 3-pointer of the game with just nine seconds left on the clock to cut that deficit back to a single point, and then the Mustangs made a stop on the other end to set up their final inbounds play and Miller’s eventual game-winner.

Blake Buchanan led Virginia with 11 points and 15 rebounds off the bench. Ishan Sharma added 10 points off the bench, too. They were the only two Cavaliers players to hit double figures. The team shot just 4-of-26 from the 3-point line, too. Virginia dropped to 8-9 on the season with the loss.

Chuck Harris added 12 points to go with Miller’s 12 for SMU. Samet Yigitoglu added 10 points and six rebounds, too. SMU, which has now won back-to-back games after losing two straight to both Duke and North Carolina, will take on Miami next on Saturday.



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