Virginia

An early look at our winter outlook for central Virginia

Published

1 year ago

August 21, 2023

An early look at our winter outlook for central Virginia

RICHMOND, Va. (WWBT) – Virginians are still sweltering in the heat and humidity, but the start of winter is four months away and snow lovers are already dreaming of colder weather. We do have some clues about what to expect this upcoming winter based on climate history and current trends, and it’s looking more promising for snow than it has in years for the Commonwealth.

The most important factor that influences our winter outlook each year is the phase of “ENSO” (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). This upcoming winter, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects an El Niño phase will be with us for the first time in five years. Our last El Niño happened in the winter of 2018-2019, which was also the last time we saw a big snowfall in RVA – 11.5 inches on December 9, 2018.

Rarely do forecasts get more confident than this one: the CPC says there is a greater than 95% chance of El Niño returning this winter. El Niño refers to warmer than average water temperatures in the region of the Pacific Ocean near the equator.

El Nino is defined by warmer than average water temperatures near the equator in the Pacific ocean.(WWBT)

This large area of warmer than average water temperatures changes the jet stream winds, which controls the weather patterns (both temperature and precipitation) over the United States. In the winter, this usually leads to above average precipitation in the southeastern U.S. as the subtropical jet stream stays active across the southern United States.

An El Niño weather pattern is favorable for colder and wetter conditions across the southern... — An El Niño weather pattern is favorable for colder and wetter conditions across the southern U.S., and tend to increase our odds for snow.(WWBT)

Above average precipitation and an active subtropical jet stream across the southern U.S. would tend to be a favorable pattern for Virginia snow chances. With low pressure frequently tracking near Virginia, we will likely have many “shots on goal” to see storms with potential winter weather. At the very least, there is not much reason to be concerned for a drought this winter, even if our fall months are dry (autumn tends to be our driest season in Virginia). An El Niño pattern is reflected on the CPC’s winter precipitation outlook this year, which predicts above average precipitation over the southeast, including Virginia.

Above average precipitation is likely this winter across the southeastern U.S., including... — Above average precipitation is likely this winter across the southeastern U.S., including Virginia.(Climate Prediction Center)

However, the precipitation outlook only tells one side of the story. The temperature outlook is equally important for our snow chances, which is more tricky to predict months in advance. Temperatures are usually borderline for snow in central Virginia. The dividing line between rain and snow often sets up near Richmond during winter storms, with areas southeast of RVA seeing predominantly rain, and snow more likely northwest of RVA. The Climate Prediction Center predicts near to above average temperatures, especially across the northern half of the U.S. Regardless of whether we are in an El Niño or La Niña, global warming means we will have more warmer than average winters in the Commonwealth. Even in a warming world, Virginia will still have bouts of cold and snow, they just won’t be as frequent as they used to be.

Temperatures are likely to be above average especially across the northern half of the U.S.... — Temperatures are likely to be above average especially across the northern half of the U.S. this winter.(Climate Prediction Center (NOAA))

We also look to past winters for clues to our snow chances this winter – we call this “analog forecasting”. Historically, El Niño is the most favorable phase of ENSO for snow chances in RVA. Richmond has a median of 13.6 inches of snow in El Niño winters based on records from 1949 through 2021.

La Niña is the opposite of El Niño (colder than average water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific), and is not as favorable for snow in RVA with a median of just 8.4 inches. The prior three winters were influenced by La Niña, including last winter in 2022-2023 when Richmond tied the record for the least snow ever in a winter season with just a trace. NBC12 predicted last year’s less snowy winter months ahead of time based on these analogs for La Niña. There can also be time periods of ENSO-neutral conditions, without an El Niño or La Niña. RVA has a median of 9.5 inches of snow in those winters.

El Niño tends to bring RVA our snowiest winters, with an average of 14.4 inches of snow in... — El Niño tends to bring RVA our snowiest winters, with an average of 14.4 inches of snow in Richmond, compared to 13.2 inches in an ENSO-neutral year, and 9.6 inches in a La Niña winter.(National Weather Service Wakefield, Virginia)

Not all El Niño winters are created equally. Climatologists group El Niño into “weak, moderate, and strong”, and the impacts are a little different based on the strength and location of the warmest waters. Our snowiest winters in central Virginia tend to happen in a moderate El Niño. This upcoming winter’s El Niño is expected to reach the moderate to strong end of the scale. In fact, the CPC predicts a 65% chance this winter’s El Niño becomes strong for a time.

There have only been seven strong El Niño’s in our modern climate record, and snowfall in Richmond in those years varies considerably from a lot of snow to very little. There were nearly 30 inches of snow in a couple of strong El Niño years and either side of one inch in a couple other years, with an average of 13.3 inches in strong El Niño years. The small sample size and large variability means that if El Niño ends up being strong, the winter’s seasonal snowfall could be boom or bust in RVA.

To sum it up, the El Niño winter expected means our chances for above average snowfall in central Virginia are higher this coming winter than we have seen in a half decade. Snow lovers can’t ask for much more than that four months away from winter’s start. One thing we can also say with near-certainty: we will have more snow this year than we did last year.

Be sure to download the NBC12 First Alert Weather app for up-to-date information and to receive severe weather alerts including updates on any winter weather that comes our way. You can find the app in the Apple Store and on Google Play.

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Big Tests On The Horizon For Virginia Tech Wrestling – FloWrestling

Published

8 hours ago

November 28, 2024

Press Room

Big Tests On The Horizon For Virginia Tech Wrestling – FloWrestling

At 3-0 with marquee victories over #6 Missouri (23-10) and #21 Rutgers (26-11), as well as a second-place finish in the Keystone Open with just a handful of starters competing, Virginia Tech has swept through a tough November and is prepared for a difficult December.

The Hokies, #12 in Flo’s team tournament ratings but top 10 in various dual-meet rankings, are next scheduled for an annual trip to Las Vegas for the Cliff Keen Invitational, featuring 27 teams, of which 14 are among Flo’s top 25. And then it’s another trip west to Stillwater on Dec. 19 to challenge #5 Oklahoma State in a rare Thursday match.

The early key thus far for the Hokies has been the ability to win the bouts they’re supposed to win and grabbing a fair share of so-called toss-up bouts.

To wit, Tech’s #18 Sam Latona downing Missouri’s #13 Josh Edmond (4-2) at 141, or #25 Rafael Hipolito majoring the Tigers’ #32 James Conway (11-3) at 157 and #15 Jimmy Mullen stopping #20 Seth Nitzel (4-2) at heavyweight.

That trend continued at Tech’s Moss Arts Center match against #21 Rutgers when Latona used a late takedown to defeat Joey Olivieri 7-5, #4 Lennox Wolak pinned veteran Jackson Turley at 174 and #9 Andy Smith slipped past #17 John Poznanski 4-3 at 197.

Hokies coach Tony Robie only took a few regulars to the Keystone Open in Philadelphia and, led by championship efforts by #1-ranked Caleb Henson at 149 and heavyweight Hunter Catka, Tech placed second behind Lock Haven. Latona placed third at 141 and Sam Fisher did the same at 184.

Robie opted to use the Hokies’ roster as freshmen Dillon Campbell (125), Matt Henrich (157), Luke Robie (157) and Jack Bastarrika (133) competed as did redshirt juniors Jackson Spires (165) and Ty Finn (174). Spires placed second.

Who’s Ready For Change?

With legislation on the NCAA’s table affecting scholarship and roster limits — unlimited scholarships and a roster cap — as well as revenue sharing, some college wrestling programs likely have a serious dose of trepidation while others are confident they can deal with whatever happens.

Virginia Tech sits in the latter category.

“I have no concerns whatsoever about that,” Robie said earlier this month. “I think a lot of it probably will happen. It’s hard to say whether it’s good or bad for the sport; that’s not really for me to say. What I will say is you have to adjust with what the rules are and what the landscape of college athletics looks like, and that’s what we intend on doing.

“Is it good for the overall health of the sport of wrestling? The kid that’s the 35th kid on your roster? Probably not. But I think definitely there were probably some things that needed to change; the pendulum was starting to swing significantly the other way. At some point, it’ll probably start to go back to the middle.”

Robie said all anyone can do is wait for the final decisions.

“We have some contingency plans based on what we think is going to happen and we’ll move forward with our plan and try to execute it,” he said.

A Pretty Good Gig

Robie, in his eighth year as head coach, has been at Tech since 2006 and as each season passes, the commitment and enthusiasm remain the same.

“Well, you get to do what you like to do. And it’s a pretty cool thing to be able to coach wrestling for a living and be a part of a pretty good program, and work with some great people and try to affect the lives of the kids in your program,” he said.

“I think anybody would want to do that. For me, I’m not young anymore. I turned 50 … who knows how long I’m going to do it, but I’m going to give it the best I can while I’m doing it and hopefully continue to improve as a program and try to try to help these guys as much as possible. But it’s good, Virginia Tech’s a great place to work, it’s a great place to live. I’ve got a great staff and it makes my life pretty easy.”

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Virginia

VIDEO: UVA Football Players Preview the Virginia Tech Game

Published

15 hours ago

November 27, 2024

Press Room

VIDEO: UVA Football Players Preview the Virginia Tech Game

With the game of year looming this weekend, members of the Virginia football team were made available to to the media after practice on Tuesday morning to talk about the regular season finale against Virginia Tech in the Commonwealth Clash on Saturday night in Blacksburg. Watch the video below to hear what UVA senior safety Jonas Sanker, graduate tight ends Tyler Neville and Sackett Wood Jr., and graduate defensive tackle Jahmeer Carter had to say ahead of the Virginia Tech game:

Sanker is the team’s leader in tackles with 89 total tackles and also leads the ACC in solo stops with 60 unassisted tackles. He has racked up 8.5 tackles for loss, two sacks, four pass breakups, two fumble recoveries, and an interception as part of a strong senior campaign that should earn Sanker some serious consideration for a First-Team All-ACC selection.

A transfer from Harvard, Tyler Neville is Virginia’s second-leading receiver with 35 catches for 387 yards and two touchdowns. Sackett Wood Jr., meanwhile, has recorded three receptions for 18 yards and a touchdown this season. Between the two of them, Neville and Wood have combined to appear in 83 college football games and make 48 starts.

Saturday will be the 55th game in the five-year career of Jahmeer Carter, who has started nearly every game for the last four seasons at Virginia. This season, Carter has 30 total tackles, including nine solo stops, two tackles for loss, one sack, and a pass defender. For his career, Carter is up to 131 total tackles, 2.5 sacks, and 7.5 tackles for loss.

Saturday night will be the first time Virginia plays at Lane Stadium in front of fans since the 2018 season, as the 2020 edition of the Commonwealth Clash was played in front of only 250 fans due to COVID-19 restrictions and then the 2022 Virginia vs. Virginia Tech game was canceled due to the shooting tragedy at UVA.

Virginia is seeking its first road victory at Virginia Tech since 1998, as the Hokies have won the last 11 Commonwealth Clash games played at Lane Stadium. Virginia Tech has won 17 of the last 18 overall games against Virginia and leads UVA 61-38-5 in the all-time series that dates back to 1895.

Both Virginia and Virginia Tech bring a 5-6 overall record into the regular season finale and both need to win the game in order to reach the six-win threshold required for bowl eligibility. There is only one other game this weekend between FBS teams who are battling for bowl eligibility (Eastern Michigan vs. Western Michigan). Virginia and Virginia Tech played each other for bowl eligibility at the end of the 2014 season.

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Virginia

Virginia Lottery Mega Millions, Pick 3 Night results for Nov. 26, 2024

Published

23 hours ago

November 27, 2024

Press Room

The Virginia Lottery offers multiple draw games for those aiming to win big. Here’s a look at Nov. 26, 2024, results for each game:

Mega Millions

Mega Millions drawings take place every week on Tuesday and Friday at 11 p.m.

05-22-24-39-42, Mega Ball: 03, Megaplier: 3

Check Mega Millions payouts and previous drawings here.

Pick 3

DAY drawing at 1:59 p.m. NIGHT drawing at 11 p.m. each day.

Night: 7-3-0, FB: 2

Day: 7-2-1, FB: 5

Check Pick 3 payouts and previous drawings here.

Pick 4

DAY drawing at 1:59 p.m. NIGHT drawing at 11 p.m. each day.

Night: 1-6-6-8, FB: 5

Day: 7-4-5-8, FB: 4

Check Pick 4 payouts and previous drawings here.

Pick 5

DAY drawing at 1:59 p.m. NIGHT drawing at 11 p.m. each day.

Night: 0-5-4-9-9, FB: 2

Day: 6-9-5-3-2, FB: 0

Check Pick 5 payouts and previous drawings here.

Cash4Life

Drawing everyday at 9 p.m.

04-11-13-30-39, Cash Ball: 02

Check Cash4Life payouts and previous drawings here.

Cash Pop

Drawing times: Coffee Break 9 a.m.; Lunch Break 12 p.m.; Rush Hour 5 p.m.; Prime Time 9 p.m.; After Hours 11:59 p.m.

Coffee Break: 04

After Hours: 05

Prime Time: 06

Rush Hour: 09

Lunch Break: 12

Check Cash Pop payouts and previous drawings here.

Cash 5

Drawing every day at 11 p.m.

12-22-31-38-44

Check Cash 5 payouts and previous drawings here.

Feeling lucky? Explore the latest lottery news & results

This results page was generated automatically using information from TinBu and a template written and reviewed by a Center for Community Journalism (CCJ) editor. You can send feedback using this form.

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