Pamela Maldonado is a sports betting analyst for ESPN.
No. 3 Texas A&M walks into Austin with everything still on the table, while No. 17 Texas is clinging to the final thread of a postseason dream that’s been unraveling since the team was ranked preseason No. 1 for the first time in their history.
One side is chasing a conference title, and the other is trying to keep its season from folding in its own backyard. The matchup has urgency, consequence and an energy that guarantees excitement, twists and everything in between, but the reasons why sit beneath the surface.
Saddle up … Aggies versus Longhorns is about who can handle the ride.
All odds by ESPN BET
No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies at No. 17 Texas Longhorns Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Line: Texas A&M -2.5 Money line: Texas A&M (-120), Texas (Even) Over/Under: 51.5 (O -110, U -110)
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Texas: a team that lives in between potential and production
This Texas team can be so much more and maybe in 2026 they can be. They have the quarterback talent, the receiver room and the pass-rush ceiling, and the solid markers to build a base that can go toe to toe with any team in the country.
Unfortunately, we’ve been seeing the same story unfold since the start of the season, even a continuation of last year. Texas moves through games with volatility instead of a steady foundation. When Arch Manning has time, the Longhorns can hit explosives in a way that genuinely scares opponents. He’s thrown 23 touchdowns and is throwing 8.1 yards per pass, which shows that the ability is there, the firepower is there.
The catch is how often the Longhorns offense is forced into that mode. The run game is nearly non-existent, hovering near 3.7 yards per carry, outside of the top 100 in the country, which means they aren’t consistently living in second-and-4 or even third and manageable. This can make such a difference. Instead, we see Texas always one negative play away from giving possessions back. It means Manning is having to manufacture answers to predicaments that shouldn’t exist. The offense isn’t giving him the framework, so he’s sticking it together on the fly.
On the fly doesn’t work in competitive football unless you’re Johnny Manziel.
Defensively, the effort is there and the pressure numbers are real, generating over 200 pressures, but the coverage isn’t airtight enough to hide the moments where the pass rush doesn’t immediately hit.
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When Texas wins, the question is always, “is Texas good?” And when they lose, it’s always “oh, right, that’s more like it.” The Longhorns are talented, explosive, and competitive, but Texas is also dependent on conditions, timing, rhythm, and quarterback brilliance. That’s the space they operate in and why their path to winning requires chaos, which means a lot of things have to go right, far more than it should.
Texas A&M: a team with a fully formed identity and multiple ways to win
The Aggies are built with an offense that doesn’t lean on one player or one phase, it’s the product of balance. Texas A&M has a run game that actually shifts the way defenses behave, averaging 5 yards per carry, top 30 in the FBS, giving them a kind of control most teams never find. The Aggies playcalling can stay patient. It means comebacks can happen, it means Marcel Reed can operate a system designed for efficiency, not heroism.
Reed’s 9.0 yards per pass is happening because the offense is forcing defenses into conflict on every snap. The scoring outputs back it up: 54 total touchdowns on the season is a clear sign that the Aggies can finish drives and don’t waste possessions. The red zone efficiency tells the same story. A&M plays football with the understanding that momentum is built, stacked and maintained.
Defensively, tackling has been a weak point but it hasn’t derailed their ability to dictate games or control pace. The Aggies play inside their identity every week, an advantage that shows up when the games get tight.
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Betting consideration: Texas A&M -2.5
The Aggies are the more complete team so this is a wager that backs up the side that holds up under pressure. In KC Concepcion and Mario Craver, they have a WR duo that is a matchup nightmare for a Texas secondary that sits out of the top 50 in coverage grade, and has been vulnerable anytime the pass rush doesn’t close.
Concepcion’s ability to separate underneath and Craver’s vertical range stretch the defense horizontally and vertically at the same time, forcing Texas into coverage trade-offs they haven’t solved all year.
Then there’s the Aggies defense, which plays aggressively with over 200 pressures on the season, but aren’t reckless. They’ll heat up Manning without exposing themselves behind it. That kind of balance matters against a Texas offense that’s built on volatility. Texas needs pop-offs to survive, which becomes harder when the opposing front dictates and the back end holds up well enough to avoid collapse.
If the Aggies play balanced and are able to attack the exact weak points Texas can’t hide, then laying a short number on the road is justified, and possibly even a few points short.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
Texas is 0-4 ATS against AP Top-5 teams since the start of last season, worst in FBS.
The Aggies are 7-15 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season, T-worst among Power 4 schools with UGA (min. 20 games).
Texas is 5-1-1 ATS as a home underdog over the last 10 years, T-best in FBS with Notre Dame/App State (min. 5 games).
Texas A&M is 3-7-2 ATS when the spread is between a FG (+3 to -3) since 2022, worst among power conference teams (min. 10 games as Power 4 team in span).
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump just can’t seem to choose among friends in the Texas Senate Republican primary.
So when he travels to the state on Friday for his first post- State of the Union trip, where he plans to promote his energy and economic policies, Trump will have all three candidates in the competitive race join him — just days before his party casts ballots in the primary race.
Sen. John Cornyn is battling for his fifth term and is being challenged by state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt in a primary fight that has become viciously personal. And all three men, missing the coveted endorsement from Trump, have been trying to highlight their ties to him as they ramp up their campaigning ahead of Tuesday’s vote.
For his part, Trump will be seeking to ride the message of his State of the Union address from Tuesday, where he declared a return to economic prosperity and a more secure America — two centerpiece arguments for Republicans as they campaign to keep their congressional majorities this fall.
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Trump’s hesitation to endorse in the Texas Senate primary speaks to the tricky dynamics of the race.
Cornyn is unpopular with a segment of Texas’ GOP base, in part for his early dismissiveness of Trump’s 2024 comeback campaign and for his role in authoring tougher restrictions on guns after the 2022 school shooting in Uvalde, Texas. But Senate GOP leadership and allied groups see Cornyn as the stronger general election candidate, in light of a series of troubles that have shadowed Paxton.
Paxton beat impeachment on fraud charges in 2023, and has faced allegations of marital infidelity by his wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton.
Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, right, is joined by former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, left, during a campaign stop in Austin, Texas, Tuesday, Feb. 17, 2026. Credit: AP/Eric Gay
Senate Majority Leader John Thune and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, have urged Trump to endorse Cornyn. They and allied campaign groups argue that the seat would cost the party hundreds of millions more to defend with Paxton as the candidate.
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“It is a strong possibility we cannot hold Texas if John Cornyn is not our nominee,” Scott told Fox News on Wednesday.
Hunt, a second-term Houston-area representative, was a later entry to the race, but claims a kinship with Trump, having endorsed him early in the 2024 race. Hunt campaigned regularly for Trump and earned a prime-time speaking slot at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.
If no candidate reaches 50% in Tuesday’s primary, the top two finishers will advance to a May 26 runoff.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Troy Nehls, R-Texas, arrive before President Donald Trump delivers the State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress in the House chamber at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2026. Credit: AP/Allison Robbert
Cornyn’s campaign and a half-dozen allied groups have poured more than $63 million into the race since last fall, chiefly trying to slow Paxton but recently attacking Hunt in an effort to keep him from making it to the runoff.
Earlier this month, Trump feinted toward weighing in on the race when he said he was taking “a serious look” at endorsing in the Texas primary. He has since reaffirmed his neutrality.
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Still, you wouldn’t know it from watching TV in Texas. Cornyn has been airing ads since last year touting his support for Trump’s agenda, even though his relationship with the president has been cool at times. Paxton and Hunt both have ads airing now featuring them standing with Trump.
“I like all three of them, actually. Those are the toughest races. They’ve all supported me. They’re all good. You’re supposed to pick one, so we’ll see what happens. But I support all three,” Trump said earlier this month.
The GOP battle comes as Democrats have a contested primary of their own in Texas between state Rep. James Talarico, a self-described policy wonk who regularly quotes the Bible, and progressive favorite U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett.
Trump hasn’t been shy about wading into other contested Republican primaries in the state. Parts of Corpus Christi fall within Texas’ 34th congressional district, where former Rep. Mayra Flores is fighting to reclaim her seat against the Trump-endorsed Eric Flores. (The two are not related.) The winner of the primary will face off against Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, long a target of the GOP, whose district was redrawn to make it easier for a Republican to win.
Eric Flores will be at the Trump event at the Port of Corpus Christi, which technically is located in a neighboring district.
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Elsewhere in the state, the president has also endorsed Rep. Tony Gonzales, who is fighting calls from his own party to resign from Congress after reports of an alleged affair with a former staffer who later died after she set herself on fire. Gonzales is refusing to step down and has said that there will be “opportunities for all of the details and facts to come out” and that the stories about the situation do not represent “all the facts.”
Gonzales is facing a primary challenge from Brandon Herrera, a gun manufacturer and gun rights influencer who Gonzales defeated by fewer than 400 votes in their 2024 runoff. The White House did not return a request for comment on Thursday on whether Trump stands by his endorsement of Gonzales.
EL PASO, Texas (AP) — A man has been sentenced to 15 years in prison after admitting his reckless driving caused a head-on collision in rural West Texas that killed Laura Lynch, a founding member of the country music group now known as The Chicks, prosecutors said.
Domenick Chavez, 33, pleaded guilty to manslaughter in connection with Dec. 22, 2023, crash in Hudspeth County, according to a news release Tuesday from El Paso County District James Montoya, who also oversees nearby Hudspeth County.
The news release said Chavez was driving a truck westbound when he tried to pass four vehicles on a two-way undivided highway and collided head-on with Lynch’s eastbound truck. Lynch, 65, of Dell City, was trapped in her vehicle and died. Prosecutors said Chavez was traveling between 106 mph and 114 mph.
Prosecutors said alcohol wasn’t a factor in the crash but that Chavez was driving on a suspended license, which had been revoked due to his failure to comply with DWI-related surcharges and penalties from convictions in 2014 and 2017.
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Lynch, along with Robin Lynn Macy and sisters Martie Maguire and Emily Strayer, formed The Dixie Chicks in the late 1980s. Lynch and Macy eventually left the band and Natalie Maines joined the sisters. The trio hit commercial fame with their breakthrough album “Wide Open Spaces” in 1998 and have won 13 Grammys. In 2020, the band changed its name to The Chicks.
In a social media post after Lynch’s death, The Chicks said Lynch had “infectious energy and humor” and was “instrumental” in the band’s early success.
FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Billy Richmond III scored 23 points and No. 20 Arkansas took advantage of Texas A&M’s miscues to beat the Aggies 99-84 on Wednesday night.
Richmond, who shot 8 of 13 from the floor and has scored 20 points or more in the last four games, had 15 points in the first half as the Razorbacks (21-7, 11-4 Southeastern Conference) took a 37-28 lead into halftime.
They carried the advantage in large part because Texas A&M (19-8, 9-6) couldn’t take care of the ball. Thirteen first-half turnovers led to 15 points for Arkansas.
Darius Acuff Jr. scored 22 points for Arkansas, Malique Ewin had 18, Trevon Brazile 14 and Meleek Thomas 13. Acuff, who entered leading the SEC in scoring with 22.2 points per game, had been held to just five points until the final nine minutes as he made his last six of his last seven shots from the floor after a 1-for-12 start.
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Texas A&M forward Rashaun Agee (12) is fouled as he tries to drive past Arkansas defenders D.J. Wagner (21) and Malique Ewin (12) during an NCAA college basketball game, Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2026, in Fayetteville, Ark.
Michael Woods / AP
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Zach Clemence came off the bench to score a career-high 29 points for Texas A&M. Rashaun Agee added 17.
After the teams traded baskets to start the game, Texas A&M went on an 11-0 run as Arkansas went more than 4:30 without a field goal, missing seven straight. The Razorbacks followed with a run of their own, scoring 16 straight points over the next 3:28 to take the lead for good.
Texas A&M pulled within five points with 9:21 left on Agee’s layup. But Arkansas countered with a 9-2 run to stretch its lead back to double-digits.
For the game, the Aggies committed 16 turnovers and were outscored in transition 30-13.
Up next
Arkansas plays at No. 7 Florida on Saturday. The Razorbacks have won at Florida just twice in 18 games since joining the SEC ahead of the 1991-92 season.
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Texas A&M hosts Texas on Saturday.
Fort Worth’s Ranchbot helps agriculture tap water as Texas grapples with scarcity fears
NCAA women’s basketball bracketology: Where are local teams projected in March Madness?
Find more college sports coverage from The Dallas Morning News here.
Find more Texas A&M coverage from The Dallas Morning News here.
