Texas
Betting Texas A&M-Texas: Why the balanced Aggies pose problems for Longhorns
No. 3 Texas A&M walks into Austin with everything still on the table, while No. 17 Texas is clinging to the final thread of a postseason dream that’s been unraveling since the team was ranked preseason No. 1 for the first time in their history.
One side is chasing a conference title, and the other is trying to keep its season from folding in its own backyard. The matchup has urgency, consequence and an energy that guarantees excitement, twists and everything in between, but the reasons why sit beneath the surface.
Saddle up … Aggies versus Longhorns is about who can handle the ride.
All odds by ESPN BET
No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies at No. 17 Texas Longhorns
Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Line: Texas A&M -2.5
Money line: Texas A&M (-120), Texas (Even)
Over/Under: 51.5 (O -110, U -110)
Texas: a team that lives in between potential and production
This Texas team can be so much more and maybe in 2026 they can be. They have the quarterback talent, the receiver room and the pass-rush ceiling, and the solid markers to build a base that can go toe to toe with any team in the country.
Unfortunately, we’ve been seeing the same story unfold since the start of the season, even a continuation of last year. Texas moves through games with volatility instead of a steady foundation. When Arch Manning has time, the Longhorns can hit explosives in a way that genuinely scares opponents. He’s thrown 23 touchdowns and is throwing 8.1 yards per pass, which shows that the ability is there, the firepower is there.
The catch is how often the Longhorns offense is forced into that mode. The run game is nearly non-existent, hovering near 3.7 yards per carry, outside of the top 100 in the country, which means they aren’t consistently living in second-and-4 or even third and manageable. This can make such a difference. Instead, we see Texas always one negative play away from giving possessions back. It means Manning is having to manufacture answers to predicaments that shouldn’t exist. The offense isn’t giving him the framework, so he’s sticking it together on the fly.
On the fly doesn’t work in competitive football unless you’re Johnny Manziel.
Defensively, the effort is there and the pressure numbers are real, generating over 200 pressures, but the coverage isn’t airtight enough to hide the moments where the pass rush doesn’t immediately hit.
When Texas wins, the question is always, “is Texas good?” And when they lose, it’s always “oh, right, that’s more like it.” The Longhorns are talented, explosive, and competitive, but Texas is also dependent on conditions, timing, rhythm, and quarterback brilliance. That’s the space they operate in and why their path to winning requires chaos, which means a lot of things have to go right, far more than it should.
Texas A&M: a team with a fully formed identity and multiple ways to win
The Aggies are built with an offense that doesn’t lean on one player or one phase, it’s the product of balance. Texas A&M has a run game that actually shifts the way defenses behave, averaging 5 yards per carry, top 30 in the FBS, giving them a kind of control most teams never find. The Aggies playcalling can stay patient. It means comebacks can happen, it means Marcel Reed can operate a system designed for efficiency, not heroism.
Reed’s 9.0 yards per pass is happening because the offense is forcing defenses into conflict on every snap. The scoring outputs back it up: 54 total touchdowns on the season is a clear sign that the Aggies can finish drives and don’t waste possessions. The red zone efficiency tells the same story. A&M plays football with the understanding that momentum is built, stacked and maintained.
Defensively, tackling has been a weak point but it hasn’t derailed their ability to dictate games or control pace. The Aggies play inside their identity every week, an advantage that shows up when the games get tight.
Betting consideration: Texas A&M -2.5
The Aggies are the more complete team so this is a wager that backs up the side that holds up under pressure. In KC Concepcion and Mario Craver, they have a WR duo that is a matchup nightmare for a Texas secondary that sits out of the top 50 in coverage grade, and has been vulnerable anytime the pass rush doesn’t close.
Concepcion’s ability to separate underneath and Craver’s vertical range stretch the defense horizontally and vertically at the same time, forcing Texas into coverage trade-offs they haven’t solved all year.
Then there’s the Aggies defense, which plays aggressively with over 200 pressures on the season, but aren’t reckless. They’ll heat up Manning without exposing themselves behind it. That kind of balance matters against a Texas offense that’s built on volatility. Texas needs pop-offs to survive, which becomes harder when the opposing front dictates and the back end holds up well enough to avoid collapse.
If the Aggies play balanced and are able to attack the exact weak points Texas can’t hide, then laying a short number on the road is justified, and possibly even a few points short.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
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Texas is 0-4 ATS against AP Top-5 teams since the start of last season, worst in FBS.
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The Aggies are 7-15 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season, T-worst among Power 4 schools with UGA (min. 20 games).
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Texas is 5-1-1 ATS as a home underdog over the last 10 years, T-best in FBS with Notre Dame/App State (min. 5 games).
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Texas A&M is 3-7-2 ATS when the spread is between a FG (+3 to -3) since 2022, worst among power conference teams (min. 10 games as Power 4 team in span).
In an incident that was horrific beyond words, late last month, a stunned family watched in horror as a car plowed into the Katy, Texas home of a 76-year-old mother and grandmother, killing her. The driver has been charged with manslaughter.
In the aftermath of the crash, it emerged that the car in question was a Tesla, and that the driver was making use of full self-driving mode (FSD) around the time the crash occurred. The victim’s family has named Tesla and the driver as defendants in a lawsuit. But per Electrek, Tesla was able to view crash data very quickly after the incident, and the head of AI at the company, Ashok Elluswamy, said the driver “manually overrode self-driving by pressing the accelerator all the way to 100% of the accel pedal in this residential area.”
In the days after the crash, Tesla fans took issue with coverage that characterized the car as in FSD when the crash occurred. CEO Elon Musk seemed to agree, replying to a post, “Yes, this makes no sense. FSD drives slowly through neighborhood streets and this was a high speed crash!”
But Musk seems to be assuming bad faith, as if coverage implied FSD had suddenly shifted into, perhaps, some kind of previously unannounced homicidal maniac mode and attacked a house. If anyone was saying this is what happened, they should apologize. It’s clearly not what happened.
And on Wednesday, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) largely confirmed Tesla’s version of events. Their report reads, in part:
“Electronic data recovered from the vehicle indicated that before the crash, the driver manually overrode FSD (Supervised) by pressing the accelerator pedal to 100%, and the vehicle’s speed was greater than 70 mph when the crash occurred.”
But cooler heads had noted weeks earlier that, like with good old fashioned cruise control, accelerating doesn’t boot you from FSD. The car takes the input, and stays in FSD. The question isn’t one of mechanics and technology, but one of philosophy: if FSD is meant to be “driving” when someone jams on the accelerator in a residential area, FSD may not be the “driver” in one important sense, but the car was still in FSD mode.
Because as much as Tesla would probably like FSD to be a total non-factor in the incident, that may not be the case either.
ABC News noted that, according to court documents, the driver claimed he “passed out” with the car in FSD on the highway, and that’s the last thing he remembers before the crash. He says he wasn’t sick, and medical records show no seizures, cardiac episodes, drugs, or alcohol.
A local Fox affiliate says records show the car was making deliveries for DoorDash while in FSD in the “hours and minutes leading up to the crash.” While in a neighborhood, it apparently signaled it was going to turn left onto one street, but instead the pedal went to the metal. This took the Tesla onto the victim’s cul-de-sac instead, and put it on its fateful collision course with her house.
To make matters weirder, other court records now show, per Electrek, that the driver had Googled the terms, “Tesla fsd not aggressive enough 2026,” “FSD is not aggressive enough for city driving,” and “Tesla fsd too timid.” That’s the kind of thing you Google when you’re looking for a Reddit post from someone sharing your consumer gripe.
In any case, the odds aren’t good that the driver wanted this to happen, nor that Tesla programmed its cars with evil intent. But FSD was being used around the time of this unusual fatal incident, and the public deserves to know more. Fortunately, a lot more will come out as the lawsuit progresses.
AUSTIN – Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said Wednesday he has secured a settlement of bankruptcy claims against genetic testing company 23andMe stemming from a 2023 data breach that exposed personal information, including some genetic ancestry data, of 6.9 million customers worldwide.
Paxton’s office said the settlement includes $150 million for a multistate coalition of 42 states. But because of limited funds in 23andMe’s bankruptcy estate and competing claims, the states’ recovery will be $18 million paid immediately, with Texas receiving $1,266,860.
23andMe disclosed in October 2023 that attackers had accessed accounts affecting 6.9 million consumers. Some of the information was later posted for sale on the dark web, according to Paxton’s office, which said the company learned of the breach months after the data became publicly available. The office said 23andMe initially denied a breach and later blamed consumers’ account settings and password practices.
Paxton joined a multistate investigation that concluded 23andMe used unreasonable security practices and failed to implement adequate safeguards against hacking, the office said.
23andMe filed for bankruptcy protection in March 2025. Paxton’s office said the settlement incorporates privacy and cybersecurity requirements, including enhanced security standards, comprehensive risk assessments and creation of an independent advisory board, along with enforcement of state privacy laws and continued consumer data deletion rights.
“Companies that collect and profit from Texans’ most personal information have a legal duty to protect it,” Paxton said in a statement.
The company also agreed to a $46.75 million class-action settlement in the bankruptcy case for affected U.S. consumers who submitted claims by Feb. 17, 2026, Paxton’s office said.
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