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Betting Texas A&M-Texas: Why the balanced Aggies pose problems for Longhorns

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Betting Texas A&M-Texas: Why the balanced Aggies pose problems for Longhorns


No. 3 Texas A&M walks into Austin with everything still on the table, while No. 17 Texas is clinging to the final thread of a postseason dream that’s been unraveling since the team was ranked preseason No. 1 for the first time in their history.

One side is chasing a conference title, and the other is trying to keep its season from folding in its own backyard. The matchup has urgency, consequence and an energy that guarantees excitement, twists and everything in between, but the reasons why sit beneath the surface.

Saddle up … Aggies versus Longhorns is about who can handle the ride.

All odds by ESPN BET


No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies at No. 17 Texas Longhorns
Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Line: Texas A&M -2.5
Money line: Texas A&M (-120), Texas (Even)
Over/Under: 51.5 (O -110, U -110)

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Texas: a team that lives in between potential and production

This Texas team can be so much more and maybe in 2026 they can be. They have the quarterback talent, the receiver room and the pass-rush ceiling, and the solid markers to build a base that can go toe to toe with any team in the country.

Unfortunately, we’ve been seeing the same story unfold since the start of the season, even a continuation of last year. Texas moves through games with volatility instead of a steady foundation. When Arch Manning has time, the Longhorns can hit explosives in a way that genuinely scares opponents. He’s thrown 23 touchdowns and is throwing 8.1 yards per pass, which shows that the ability is there, the firepower is there.

The catch is how often the Longhorns offense is forced into that mode. The run game is nearly non-existent, hovering near 3.7 yards per carry, outside of the top 100 in the country, which means they aren’t consistently living in second-and-4 or even third and manageable. This can make such a difference. Instead, we see Texas always one negative play away from giving possessions back. It means Manning is having to manufacture answers to predicaments that shouldn’t exist. The offense isn’t giving him the framework, so he’s sticking it together on the fly.

On the fly doesn’t work in competitive football unless you’re Johnny Manziel.

Defensively, the effort is there and the pressure numbers are real, generating over 200 pressures, but the coverage isn’t airtight enough to hide the moments where the pass rush doesn’t immediately hit.

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When Texas wins, the question is always, “is Texas good?” And when they lose, it’s always “oh, right, that’s more like it.” The Longhorns are talented, explosive, and competitive, but Texas is also dependent on conditions, timing, rhythm, and quarterback brilliance. That’s the space they operate in and why their path to winning requires chaos, which means a lot of things have to go right, far more than it should.

Texas A&M: a team with a fully formed identity and multiple ways to win

The Aggies are built with an offense that doesn’t lean on one player or one phase, it’s the product of balance. Texas A&M has a run game that actually shifts the way defenses behave, averaging 5 yards per carry, top 30 in the FBS, giving them a kind of control most teams never find. The Aggies playcalling can stay patient. It means comebacks can happen, it means Marcel Reed can operate a system designed for efficiency, not heroism.

Reed’s 9.0 yards per pass is happening because the offense is forcing defenses into conflict on every snap. The scoring outputs back it up: 54 total touchdowns on the season is a clear sign that the Aggies can finish drives and don’t waste possessions. The red zone efficiency tells the same story. A&M plays football with the understanding that momentum is built, stacked and maintained.

Defensively, tackling has been a weak point but it hasn’t derailed their ability to dictate games or control pace. The Aggies play inside their identity every week, an advantage that shows up when the games get tight.

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Betting consideration: Texas A&M -2.5

The Aggies are the more complete team so this is a wager that backs up the side that holds up under pressure. In KC Concepcion and Mario Craver, they have a WR duo that is a matchup nightmare for a Texas secondary that sits out of the top 50 in coverage grade, and has been vulnerable anytime the pass rush doesn’t close.

Concepcion’s ability to separate underneath and Craver’s vertical range stretch the defense horizontally and vertically at the same time, forcing Texas into coverage trade-offs they haven’t solved all year.

Then there’s the Aggies defense, which plays aggressively with over 200 pressures on the season, but aren’t reckless. They’ll heat up Manning without exposing themselves behind it. That kind of balance matters against a Texas offense that’s built on volatility. Texas needs pop-offs to survive, which becomes harder when the opposing front dictates and the back end holds up well enough to avoid collapse.

If the Aggies play balanced and are able to attack the exact weak points Texas can’t hide, then laying a short number on the road is justified, and possibly even a few points short.

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

  • Texas is 0-4 ATS against AP Top-5 teams since the start of last season, worst in FBS.

  • The Aggies are 7-15 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season, T-worst among Power 4 schools with UGA (min. 20 games).

  • Texas is 5-1-1 ATS as a home underdog over the last 10 years, T-best in FBS with Notre Dame/App State (min. 5 games).

  • Texas A&M is 3-7-2 ATS when the spread is between a FG (+3 to -3) since 2022, worst among power conference teams (min. 10 games as Power 4 team in span).



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3 things to watch as Texas, Texas Tech begin Women's College World Series Final

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3 things to watch as Texas, Texas Tech begin Women's College World Series Final


It’s a rematch between Lone Star State powers in the 2026 Women’s College World Series Final.
No. 1 seed Texas (51-12, 16-8 in SEC play) and No. 3 seed Texas Tech (61-8, 21-3 in the Big 12) begin their three-game series at 8 p.m. ET Wednesday in Oklahoma City. Each



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Brazoria County deputy shoots, kills Texas State University student after car chase, report says

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Brazoria County deputy shoots, kills Texas State University student after car chase, report says


BRAZORIA COUNTY, Texas – A Texas State University student was shot and killed by a Brazoria County Sheriff’s deputy early Monday morning after an attempted traffic stop in Lake Jackson.

The news was first reported by The University Star, Texas State’s student-run newspaper.

In a Tuesday statement to KSAT, the university identified the student as John Gabriel Mendoza Jr., 18. He was a freshman who studied management, according to the school.

“We extend our heartfelt condolences to his family, friends, classmates, and all those affected by this tragedy,” the university said in its statement.

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Deputies attempted a traffic stop on a vehicle just after midnight Monday near Farm-to-Market 2004 and This Way Street in Lake Jackson, the sheriff’s office said.

The driver of the vehicle, who was identified as Mendoza by The University Star, did not stop, deputies said. The deputies then chased after the vehicle for approximately a mile into a neighborhood located in the 100 block of Indian Warrior Trail.

According to the sheriff’s office, the driver went inside a home’s garage and parked before a deputy approached the vehicle, the release said.

The deputy then pulled out his firearm and shot into the vehicle. The sheriff’s office said the gunfire struck the driver.

The University Star reported that Mendoza was the one shot. He was taken to a hospital, where he was later pronounced dead.

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The deputy who pulled the trigger has since been placed on administrative leave in accordance with the Brazoria County Sheriff’s Office policy.

KSAT reached out to the Lake Jackson Police Department and the Brazoria County Sheriff’s Office for more information, but neither agency has responded at this time.

The shooting investigation is being led by the Texas Rangers, according to a Brazoria County Sheriff’s Office news release.

This is a developing story. Check back for updates.


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Copyright 2026 by KSAT – All rights reserved.



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Women’s College World Series championship series set: Texas to rematch Texas Tech

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Women’s College World Series championship series set: Texas to rematch Texas Tech


OKLAHOMA CITY — Texas and Texas Tech will meet in the championship series of the Women’s College World Series in back-to-back years after both teams won semifinal matchups on a scorcher of a day at Devon Park that saw the maximum four games with two “if necessary” showdowns.

Texas has won six elimination games in the NCAA Tournament so far, including two on Monday, to reach its fourth championship series in five years and its third straight. The Longhorns and Red Raiders became the 11th and 12th teams in WCWS history to lose their opener and then reach the finals. This is the first matchup of teams to do that since 2021, when FSU and Oklahoma accomplished the feat.

The Red Raiders return to the championship series after knocking out No. 1 overall seed Alabama, marking their second consecutive appearance in the finals. Kaitlyn Terry and NiJaree Canady worked in tandem in the circle in Game 1 to keep the bats of Alabama’s potent offense relatively quiet, but Canady took it to another level in Game 2, throwing a complete-game shutout. She now has a shutout in each of her four appearances in the WCWS.

“I’m just excited to be able to make it to the championship series again,” Canady said on facing Texas in back-to-back championships. “It’s just a blessing to play them again. It’s good for the state of Texas, showing how good softball is in the state, and I feel like we’re going to get a good turnout.”

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“Just so proud of my girls,” Texas Tech coach Gerry Glasco said. “They really bought in in the last — I feel like the last 30 days that we just have come together and became a whole different team, and they’re just playing for each other so well now.”

As per usual for the Red Raiders’ stacked lineup, it was a runs-by-committee kind of day, with RBIs from five players: Lauren Allred, Terry, Jasmyn Burns, Taylor Pannell — who both homered — and Mia Williams, whose walk-off in Game 1 kept the Red Raiders’ chances alive. Burns was the sole provider of the offense in Game 2 with a solo home run, her second in as many days. That was all Texas Tech needed to shut out the Tide, though another run scored on an error in the top of the seventh allowed Mihyia Davis to add some insurance.

Alabama’s Jocelyn Briski had been dominant the entire WCWS up until Monday’s first matchup, where she just couldn’t seem to find the zone. She had more control in Game 2, but the Tide’s offense couldn’t figure out Canady despite seeing her in the first game.

NiJaree Canady blanked the Crimson Tide in Game 2 for her fourth WCWS shutout. (Nathan J. Fish / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)

“The key today was one inning at a time,” Glasco said. “Play one inning at a time. Even break it down one pitch and go through. Don’t think about 14. Think get the next out, get to the next out, get to the next inning.

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“We know that against a great team like Alabama, there’s going to be moments — I told her (Canady) before, you’re going to lose momentum at some point. You’re going to face adversity, and when you do, we’re going to respond really quickly and get it right back in our dugout.

“That adversity happened at the top of the seventh. Just like Oklahoma last year, we lost the lead. Let’s win it in the bottom here. Let’s not mess around and go eight. Let’s get it right now. It took one batter. They’re just really a resilient bunch of young women.”

The Longhorns likewise won both of the necessary games to advance and keep their hopes for a repeat title alive. Teagan Kavan struck out 10 batters — a new career high in OKC — and allowed just two hits in a complete-game shutout, the fifth of her career on this stage, to surpass Texas legend and Olympian Cat Osterman. Tennessee, which defeated Texas on Thursday to open up play at Devon Park, needed just one win to advance, but its offense was shut down by Kavan and Game 1 starter Citlaly Gutierrez, who took a no-hitter into the fourth inning.

Tennessee, undefeated in the NCAA Tournament until this point, had hit a home run in every contest but couldn’t find a rhythm in either game. For Texas, Katie Stewart led the way at the plate, launching her second and third home runs in 24 hours despite an uncharacteristic three errors in the field. Her second home run of the day was her 30th of the season, a Texas program record that also made her the fourth player in Division I this season to surpass the 30-homer mark.

Katie Stewart celebrates a home run as she rounds the bases.

Katie Stewart hit a solo home run in the fifth inning of Game 1 against Tennessee to help Texas advance to the championship series. (Brett Rojo / Imagn Images)

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“It’s what coach (Mike) White has put in us all season, just fighting back from losses,” senior catcher Reese Atwood said. “When we came out of the loser’s bracket after the first game, we fought so hard. We’ve had so many key players step up in different places, different roles, and it’s Texas fight. It’s what we do, and we’re going to continue to do going into the championship.”

Texas and Texas Tech have not faced each other so far in 2026, but the Longhorns have historically owned the in-state rivalry with a 58-12 record against the Red Raiders.

Last season, Texas Tech made program history with its first WCWS ticket punched, then came within one game of taking home its first title in a three-game battle against Texas. In the 2025 tournament, Texas and Texas Tech went through the winner’s bracket before facing each other; the first two games of the championship were pitchers’ duels until Texas’ offense exploded in Game 3 to take home the program’s first championship.

Notably, the college careers of Tennessee ace Karlyn Pickens and Alabama seniors Alexis Pupillo and Marlie Giles came to an end. Pickens has made an indelible mark on the sport and leaves behind the record for the fastest pitch recorded in college softball at 79.4 mph. After being drafted No. 1 in the AUSL Draft, Pickens will play professionally with the Carolina Blaze.



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