Tennessee
Florida vs. Tennessee football prediction: What the analytics say
A classic SEC football rivalry returns to Rocky Top this weekend between a pair of teams that are 1-1 in conference play, as No. 8 Tennessee comes off a loss as it faces Florida in college football’s Week 7 action. Let’s check in with the latest predictions for the game from the model that picks winners.
Tennessee was slow to start and didn’t have enough to finish in an upset loss at unranked Arkansas last weekend, but still ranks fourth nationally in both scoring offense and defense and is 5th in FBS in rushing production.
Florida gave head coach Billy Napier a little more time with a win against UCF last week, a second straight victory that followed a dominant SEC debut against Mississippi State.
Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.
The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.
As expected, most projections favor the Volunteers over the Gators.
Tennessee is projected to win the game outright in the majority 86.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.
That leaves Florida as the expected winner in the remaining 13.1 percent of sims.
In total, the Vols win out in 17,380 of the index’s 20,000 simulations of the game, while the Gators come out ahead in the other 2,620 projections.
Tennessee is projected to be 17.3 points better than Florida on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.
If so, that would be enough to cover the spread.
That’s because Tennessee is a 15.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points for the game.
And it set the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -700 and for Florida at +500 to win outright.
Most bettors consider Vols the far better team on the field, according to the latest spread consensus picks.
A plurality of bets — 64 percent of them — predict Tennessee will win the game and cover the spread.
The other 36 percent of wagers expect Florida will either win in an upset, or keep the game within the line.
The game’s implied score suggests a comfortable win for Tennessee.
When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Tennessee will defeat Florida by a projected score of 36 to 20 in the game.
Tennessee is fifth among SEC teams with a 48 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.4 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.
That model gives Florida a win total projection of 5 games and a 31.2 percent shot at a bowl game.
Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.
Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.
First-place votes in parentheses
1. Texas (52)
2. Ohio State (9)
3. Oregon
4. Penn State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. Tennessee
9. Ole Miss
10. Clemson
T-11. Iowa State/Notre Dame
13. LSU
14. BYU
15. Texas A&M
16. Utah
17. Boise State
T-18. Kansas State/Indiana/Oklahoma
21. Missouri
22. Pittsburgh
23. Illinois
24. Michigan
25. SMU
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When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 7 p.m. ET | 6 p.m. CT
TV: ESPN network
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams
Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks
Tennessee
TN school districts set for funding cut under Trump’s new SNAP rules
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If lawmakers don’t update how the state determines children to be low-income, Tennessee school districts could see tens of millions less K-12 funding because of new restrictions on federal food programs in President Donald Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill.
New, stricter eligibility requirements for SNAP and TANF implemented in the Trump Administration’s landmark budget bill have caused hundreds of Tennessee children to no longer automatically qualify for state “economic disadvantage” funding for K-12 schools.
Cocke County in upper East Tennessee lost the supplemental funding for more than 340 students this year, Director of Schools Manny Moore told a House committee last month.
That will mean a budget cut of more than $500,000 for the Cocke County Schools this year.
“That’s a pretty big loss for our rural distressed district of 4,000 students,” Moore told lawmakers.
Tennessee funds public schools by providing $7,295 in base funding for each K-12 student and adding more funding for certain learning needs, including for low-income students. Schools receive $1,824 each year from the state for each student determined “economically disadvantaged.”
The state considers students “economically disadvantaged” only if they are actively participating in federal food aid programs like SNAP and TANF. Tennnessee has some of the strictest restrictions around SNAP in the country.
Unlike many other states, Tennessee does not use Medicaid enrollment to qualify a student for economic disadvantage funding, even though income requirements are the same as for the federal feeding programs that do qualify students.
Because of new federal restrictions and Tenessee’s uncommonly narrow qualifyers, thouands of students who are income-eligible for supplemental K-12 funding do not recieve it.
“These kiddos were devastated that they no longer qualified, but their income did not change,” said Rep. Gloria Johnson, D-Knoxville, a veteran school teacher.
Funding all low-income children that qualify for the supplemental dollars would cost the state an estimated $83.7 million, according to fiscal analysts.
Gov. Bill Lee’s last two budgets have included “hold harmless” funding to continue stable funding levels as school districts navigate drops in “economically disadvantaged” students because of expiring federal pandemic-era waivers. The state funded 75% of the funding lost because of drops in economic disadvantage qualification in 2026, and Lee is proposing a 100% continuation of that funding this year.
“The Lee Administration is committed to ensuring Tennessee students, especially those in our most vulnerable communities, have access to a quality education,” said Lee spokesperson Elizabeth Johnson.
“The Governor welcomes the General Assembly’s partnership in identifying long-term solutions to ensure every Tennessee student continues to receive the resources they need to succeed,” she added.
A legislative fix?
Two Republicans are working to add Medicaid participation as a qualifier for Tennessee’s K-12 funding formula so that all students who financially qualify for state “economic disadvantage” funding can actually receive it.
While income limits are the same for the state’s Medicaid program, TennCare, participation in TennCare doesn’t automatically qualify a student for that extra K-12 funding.
House Bill 2485 would change that.
“We’re missing a lot of kids who should qualify but don’t actually participate in SNAP and TANF, many of them however do participate in Medicaid,” said sponsor Rep. Kirk Haston, R-Lobelville.
There were about 630,522 children ages 5 to 18 enrolled in TennCare as of July, according to state fiscal analysts.
Right now, the bill is stuck behind the state budget.
Not making the change could take a financial toll on school districts as soon as this year.
“Without this change each one of us has a school system in our district that would lose about $2 million,” Haston told the House Finance Committee last week.
In Hancock County, for example, 43% of the county’s 842 students are considered economically disadvantaged, but 76% are enrolled in TennCare. Were the state to certify students’ incomes by TennCare enrollment, the district could qualify for $1.1 million in “economic disadvantage” funding. The district received $711,379 last fiscal year, according to an analysis by EdTrust.
Schools in Sevier, Bedford and Roane counties could each see losses of more than $1 million this year. Meigs County is projected to lose $420,000, while Obion and Wayne counties are set to lose $300,000 each.
Tennessee’s distressed counties could see a combined loss of about $3.3 million, according to an analysis by EdTrust.
“These schools are not looking for additional funding. They’re just looking for the funding that they were promised at the very beginning that was already there, that is leaving,” Haston said. “This is a make-whole bill in my opinion.”
House Finance Chair Ryan Williams, R-Cookeville, noted this month that Haston’s proposal “is super expensive.”
But much of it is funding the state was already required to spend based on the TISA formula before the federal changes disqualified participants.
Do Republicans support the measure?
Not all Republicans are on board. Reps. Lee Reeves, R-Franklin, and Gino Bulso, R-Brentwood, voted against the measure in the House Education Committee.
Bulso said Tennessee’s K-12 funding structure, the Tennessee Investment in Student Achievement formula, already has “some unfairness.”
“The area that I represent is perhaps the leading LEA in terms of being disadvantaged by the allocation of TISA funding,” Bulso said.
Middle TN districts could see some of the biggest losses
According to a database created by EdTrust, Middle Tennessee districts would be some of the most impacted. Here’s what each district is projected to gain if TennCare enrollment is added as a financial qualifier for “economic disadvantage” funding:
- Davidson County – $21.1 million
- Williamson County – $5.3 million
- Montgomery County – $7.1 million
- Cheatham County – $853k
- Dickson County – $2.5 million
- Rutherford County – $15.5 million
- Wilson County – $4.3 million
- Maury County – $3.7 million
Vivian Jones covers state government and politics for The Tennessean. Reach her with questions, tips and story ideas at vjones@tennessean.com.
Tennessee
Tennessee immigration bill sparks nonprofit concerns over unintended impacts on vulnerable US citizens
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WTVF) — Tennessee lawmakers are considering legislation that would require state and local governments to verify U.S. citizenship before distributing taxpayer-funded benefits, prompting concerns from local healthcare nonprofits.
House Bill 1710 is one of nine immigration-related bills crafted by Tennessee Republicans and the Trump administration currently under review on Tennessee’s Capitol Hill.
The bill requires state and local entities, including health departments, to verify the lawful presence of anyone 18 or older applying for public benefits. It also mandates reporting undocumented immigrants to the centralized immigration enforcement division of the state’s Department of Safety. Under the proposed legislation, failing to report is a Class A misdemeanor, and the state attorney general could withhold taxpayer funds from non-compliant groups.
“House Bill 1710 requires all Tennessee state and local governments to verify U.S. citizenship or lawful presence before giving out taxpayer funded benefits,” Rep. Dennis Powers, R-Jacksboro, said during debate on the bill. “They do have to verify whether they’re here legally before they receive benefits, if it’s a non-emergency situation.”
Neighborhood Health, a nonprofit operating 12 clinics across Middle Tennessee, provides care regardless of a patient’s insurance status. “We want everyone in Nashville and Middle Tennessee to have access to medical, dental and behavioral healthcare services,” said Brian Haile, CEO of Neighborhood Health.
Haile worries the bill, while targeting undocumented immigrants, will unintentionally impact U.S. citizens who cannot locate their paperwork. “There are a lot of potential unintended consequences and hidden costs to this legislation,” Haile said. “We’re really grateful when we get a full legal name and a birthday, but getting a social security number, much less a birth certificate or a passport, that’s not going to happen.”
Citizens unable to produce the required documentation could be classified as undocumented, even if they were born in the U.S. “I think this will disproportionately hurt citizens who are homeless, those in domestic violence shelters, those who are being human trafficked, even veterans on the street may not have this paperwork,” Haile said.
Nonprofits like Neighborhood Health could lose the state and local funding they rely on to operate. “If we don’t have funding to provide the care, how do we keep the doors open?” Haile said.
Haile became especially concerned last week when Powers filed an additional amendment that would have expanded the scope of the bill to impact even more nonprofits dealing with people who may be undocumented. A spokesperson for Powers said there are no plans to attach that lengthy amendment to the bill this session.
Powers was unavailable for an interview Monday but provided a statement regarding the legislation. “Tennessee taxpayers and families deserve confidence that public benefits funded by their hard-earned tax dollars go only to eligible Tennesseans,” Powers said. “By strengthening accountability, enforcement and privacy protections, this legislation protects our state and communities.”
The bill is scheduled to be debated Tuesday in a House committee. The Senate version is slightly different, so those differences will have to be reconciled in order for the bill to become law. If passed, the primary requirements of the legislation would take effect July 1, 2026.
Do you have more information about this story? You can email me at Chris.Davis@NewsChannel5.com.
Checking in on Cole: Gallatin rallies around teen battling brain tumor with prayer vigil
Austin Pollack brings us an update on a remarkable young man facing great odds, and his family has one simple request: pray for Cole. I believe in the power of prayer and hope you’ll join me in lifting up Cole and his family.
– Carrie Sharp
Tennessee
The Tennessee Vols are shooting their shot with a coveted transfer guard who has plenty of suitors
The Tennessee Vols are working to get into the mix for one of the most coveted guards in the NCAA transfer portal. Rick Barnes and the Vols are continuing to look for ways to upgrade the roster.
Rick Barnes and the Tennessee Vols are shooting their shot with one of the top guards in the NCAA transfer portal.
According to a report from VolQuest, the Vols held an in-home visit with Wake Forest Demon Deacons transfer guard Juke Harris on Sunday evening.
Harris, 6-foot-7/200 pounds from Salisbury, NC, averaged 21.4 points per game as a sophomore for the Demon Deacons this past season.
The North Carolina native was recruited by Tennessee before he eventually landed with Wake Forest out of high school.
Juke Harris is already very familiar with Tennessee
Harris would fill the go-to scorer role that Vols head coach Rick Barnes knows he needs.
Several other notable programs, however, are also very much in the mix for Harris, including the Michigan Wolverines.
Harris visited Michigan over the weekend.
The Wake Forest transfer, though, is already familiar with Barnes and the Vols after being recruited out of high school by Tennessee.
Harris, in fact, was on a recruiting visit to Tennessee in 2022 when the Vols knocked off Alabama in Neyland Stadium.
“The most memorable part of the visit was when we all rushed the field after the game,” said Harris to On3 after his official visit to UT for the Bama game in 2022. “So many Tennessee fans were saying my name and stopping their celebration to tell me they wanted me to commit. That made me feel super welcomed.”
The existing relationship with Harris should help the Vols in their pursuit of the talented guard. But if Tennessee is going to land Harris, they’ll likely need to be the top bidder for his services.
Harris is also going through the NBA Draft process, so there’s no guarantee that he’ll spend another season in college.
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