South-Carolina
Who’s the best bet against the spread? Iowa or South Carolina? LSU or Virginia Tech?
After 60 video games, we’ve lastly made it to Dallas. There have been upsets, dominant performances, come-from-behind victories, wild buckets, disappointing losses, time beyond regulation wins and last-second photographs. And there’s nonetheless extra to return.
My document of selecting in opposition to the unfold is 34-26. I’ve taken some dangers on various picks and have missed on some shut unfold calls. Typically the ball sails by means of the online, typically it hits the rim and bounces off. That’s basketball.
Listed here are the Ultimate 4 matchups and my picks in opposition to the unfold.
However first: In the event you’re unfamiliar with betting numbers, the final concept is you subtract regardless of the quantity is from the rating, and that ought to make it even. So “LSU (-1.5)” mainly means the Tigers ought to win by two factors in opposition to Virginia Tech. The .5 lets you choose a aspect, so there aren’t any ties. In brief, the workforce with the “-” quantity subsequent to it’s giving the opposite workforce that a lot of a lead on this figurative world. If “PK” is listed, it means the groups are rated even power and it’s a straight win or loss choose.
No. 3 LSU (-1.5) vs. No. 1 Virginia Tech, 7 p.m. (ET), ESPN
Love her or hate her, what Kim Mulkey has achieved with LSU in simply two seasons is unbelievable. She managed to place collectively the appropriate mixture of gamers who’re meshing on the excellent time. Transfers Angel Reese (Maryland), Kateri Poole (Ohio State), LaDazhia Williams (Missouri), Jasmine Carson (West Virginia), together with freshmen Flau’jae Johnson, Final-Tear Poa, Sa’Myah Smith and fifth-year senior Alexis Morris have blended so properly it’s exhausting to inform it’s their first season taking part in collectively. Although the Tigers have been knocked for his or her gentle regular-season schedule, they nonetheless gained these video games in dominant trend and have been profitable in SEC play — dropping solely as soon as to South Carolina. LSU is averages 38 factors per sport within the paint and holds opponents to 17.4 paint-points. Reese (23.2 factors and 15.7 rebounds) has greater than 30 double-doubles. The Tigers typically win by controlling the boards and getting buckets in transition off turnovers. They’re savvy, scrappy and fearless.
GO DEEPER
How Kim Mulkey fast-tracked LSU to the Ultimate 4, in search of yet another glitzy merchandise: a hoop
Virginia Tech is making its first look within the Ultimate 4 and deservedly so. The Hokies work exhausting in each side of the sport. The within-outside sport between Elizabeth Kitley (18.2 factors and 10.7 rebounds per sport) and Georgia Amoore (16.3 PPG) is poetry in movement. General, the Hokies have a balanced scoring assault. From drives within the lane to mid-range jumpers to perimeter capturing, Virginia Tech can damage opponents in any respect three ranges. With 4 starters averaging double-digits, it’s exhausting to comprise. Amoore has been on a tear, capturing 39 p.c from 3 within the match. The Hokies additionally defend the boards, conserving opponents off the glass. Defensive rebounding was an asset in opposition to Ohio State within the Elite Eight, however being good and affected person with the ball in the end propelled the Hokies. They not solely broke the Buckeyes’ full-court press, they made it look simple.
LSU might have extra versatility and athleticism within the frontcourt, however the Reese and Kitley inside matchup goes to be intense. Control the rebounding numbers. The Tigers get offensive rebounds at the next charge (45.6 p.c), whereas the Hokies excel at defending the glass. Virginia Tech has to restrict Reese and firm from capitalizing on second-chance factors. LSU additionally has the benefit in steals and blocks. The Tigers will look to get as many turnovers and transition buckets as they’ll. As the higher 3-point-shooting workforce, the Hokies have a number of gamers who can hit from outdoors. They’re averaging 24 3-point makes an attempt per sport within the match. LSU has to protect the perimeter and hold Amoore from getting within the lane, the place she’s so efficient at passing off or taking a high-percentage shot. Anticipate a back-and-forth chess match that would come all the way down to the ultimate possession. The choose: Virginia Tech
No. 2 Iowa vs. No. 1 South Carolina (-11.5), 9 p.m., ESPN
Consider it or not, the important thing to Iowa’s success this season isn’t Caitlin Clark. Is she a giant a part of it? Sure, in fact. With 11 triple-doubles and the primary 40-point triple-double in NCAA Match historical past (41 factors, 12 assists, 10 rebounds), how can she not be? Her season utilization charge is 35.7 p.c, and she or he’s assisted or scored on 58 p.c of the Hawkeye’s factors within the match. Within the win over Louisville, Clark scored nearly half (41 p.c) of the Hawkeye’s 97 factors. However even when she scored 40 factors in each matchup, she couldn’t have made it to the Ultimate 4 on her personal. The Hawkeyes wanted a full workforce effort to get right here, they usually’ve delivered.
The starters shall be taking the ground for the 91st time collectively on Friday evening. Iowa’s workforce chemistry is seen on each go to Monika Czinano within the lane, each break of the press, each rebound and kick-out to the highest of the important thing for a deep Clark 3-pointer, and each dish to Gabbie Marshall for a fringe shot. The Hawkeyes are taking part in unbelievable workforce basketball, whilst Clark shines individually.
GO DEEPER
Iowa vs. South Carolina: The Ultimate 4 assembly we wished and ladies’s basketball wants
South Carolina has come full circle. It’s been one 12 months because the Gamecocks held the 2022 championship trophy above their heads with ideas of operating it again. Undefeated by means of 42 video games, they’ll put the ultimate stamp on one of many best workforce runs in ladies’s school basketball, cementing themselves alongside UConn, Tennessee, Texas and Baylor. The Gamecocks have a proficient roster from begin to end, filled with bench gamers who could be starters on different groups. Aliyah Boston is the usual within the put up as an entire two-way participant. Her skill to see the ground, make the appropriate go, rating successfully and defend the rim is subsequent degree. Add within the further expertise round her, and it’s exhausting to discover a weak spot anyplace on the ground — even at level guard, as South Carolina discovered its resolution in Raven Johnson and Kierra Fletcher.
Although Iowa has the sting offensively (51 p.c FG), South Carolina is healthier on protection and on the boards. The Gamecocks have the depth to place a number of gamers on Clark, and she or he’s going to need to expend quite a lot of power to get open seems. It’s quite a bit more durable to make photographs in opposition to the Gamecocks’ size and quickness. Second-chance factors could possibly be an issue if the Hawkeyes aren’t in a position to compete on the boards, and foul hassle is probably a problem. Iowa must capitalize on open seems and turnovers in transition. I’ve stated it earlier than and I’ll say it once more: On the subject of South Carolina, each basket counts, and Iowa goes to wish each single level to drag off an upset. The Gamecocks will make it again to the title sport, however the Hawkeyes go down capturing. The choose: Iowa
(Picture of Kayana Traylor and Taylor Soule: Alika Jenner / Getty Photographs)
South Carolina football coach Shane Beamer has his Gamecocks at 7-3 and ranked in the top 20. Both the AP Poll and the USA Today Coaches Poll dropped on Sunday, USC is No. 19 in each ranking. The College Football Playoff Rankings will be updated on Tuesday, and Carolina will be in the top 20 there, too.
However, the ESPN FPI (Football Power Index) has been higher on the Gamecocks for a while. In fact, the latest FPI update slotted South Carolina just outside of College Football Playoff territory.
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Based on ESPN’s FPI rankings, the Gamecocks are the 13th-best team in college football.
The move to 13th is just a one-spot jump for South Carolina. However, with an upcoming matchup against No. 12 (Clemson) and several top teams having to play each other (Indiana vs. Ohio State, etc.), the small step closer to the top 12 represents hope. Making the College Football Playoff is still a bit of a longshot, but the odds are shortening.
The Gamecocks’ No. 13 ranking stems from a nice combination of efficiency numbers. According to ESPN, strong recent play has bumped USC to No. 46 nationally in offensive efficiency. South Carolina ranks 5th in ESPN’s defensive efficiency metric. Special teams isn’t weighted as heavily, but the Gamecocks are 70th. Because of those numbers, Carolina is 17th in the ESPN FPI overall efficiency.
With the update, the FPI gives the garnet and black a much better chance of a great season. The predictive model now projects a final record of 8.4-3.6. South Carolina has won at least nine games in a season just seven times. They’ve won at least 10 games in just four seasons; those years were 1984, 2011, 2012, and 2013. Reaching both the 9-win and 10-win thresholds are on the table.
Based on ESPN’s percentages, the Gamecocks have a 41.9% chance to win their remaining regular season games. That includes a 99% chance to knock off Wofford and then a 42% chance to beat the rival Clemson Tigers. The outlet also gives Carolina a 10.9% chance to win out AND make the College Football Playoff at 9-3. Even if they don’t make the 12-team field, USC should find themselves in a nice bowl game this winter.
[Win two tickets to the South Carolina-Wofford football game]
Because they are an FCS team, the Wofford Terriers are unranked in the FPI. However, the Spartanburg-based squad is 5-6 on the season and 3-5 in SoCon play.
Saturday will be South Carolina’s final home contest of the season, and the Gamecocks and Terriers will kick off at 4:00 p.m. Fans not in attendance will have to stream the game on ESPN+ or SEC Network+.
Shane Beamer’s South Carolina football team is 7-3 (and 5-3 in conference play). The Gamecocks have won four games in a row and have finished their SEC slate with a winning record for the first time since 2017.
Carolina’s most recent win—a wild ride that concluded with a Rocket Sanders touchdown and subsequent celebration that registered as an earthquake on seismographs—saw the Gamecocks finally defeat the Missouri Tigers after losing five straight Mayor’s Cup games in a row.
Thanks to the win streak, including three straight ranked wins, the national perception around South Carolina is improving.
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ESPN’s Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura released their updated bowl season projections on Sunday. Like last week, both analysts picked the Reliquest Bowl (formerly called the Outback Bowl) as the Gamecocks’ winter destination. However, the colleagues traded their predicted USC opponents. Previously, Schlabach thought the Gamecocks would play Illinois, while Bonagura foresaw a meeting with the Iowa Hawkeyes. In this week’s update, Schlabach went with Iowa, while Bonagura picked Illinois. South Carolina and Illinois have never played, but the Gamecocks have played Iowa once previously.
CBS analyst Jerry Palm, who was late to acknowledge South Carolina as a bowl team, now projects USC to play against the Louisville Cardinals in the Gator Bowl. Carolina’s most recent trip to the Gator Bowl came in a 2022 loss to Notre Dame. The Gamecocks also fell three times in the Gator Bowl in the 1980s. Despite being old Metro Conference rivals in basketball, South Carolina and Louisville have never met on the gridiron.
Steve Lassan of The Athletic projected the Gamecocks to the Reliquest Bowl. The Tampa-based postseason contest has hosted USC five times previously. In Lassan’s view, the 2024 South Carolina football squad will match up with the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Reliaquest Bowl. Though Carolina is 4-1 in previous Reliaquest/Outback Bowls, the program’s one loss in the game came to Iowa. The loss following the 2008 season was the only time the Gamecocks and Hawkeyes have played.
Brett McMurphy of the Action Network also thinks South Carolina will end up in Tampa playing the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Reliaquest Bowl.
[Win two tickets to the South Carolina-Wofford football game]
Now with seven wins and likely at least one more remaining, South Carolina football fans expect their favorite team to play in a nice bowl. In fact, if a lot of things break the Gamecocks’ way, the College Football Playoff could come calling. The chances are small, but following the team’s recent strong play, those chances are improving.
Next up for South Carolina is an in-state battle against the FCS Wofford Terriers. The Terriers will make the drive down I-26 to Columbia for a 4:00 p.m. kickoff. ESPN+ and SEC Network+ will stream the game as it is not available on traditional television.
The Missouri Tigers some of their best football of the 2024 season in the second half against South Carolina. Ultimately, the 24 points in the final two quarters was not enough to come out on top.
Here’s the full snap counts for Missouri in its third loss of the season, followed by a full season tracker, retrived from Pro Football Focus.
Offense
RT Armand Membou, 70, 100%
C Drake Heismeyer, 70, 100%
QB Brady Cook, 70, 100%
LT Marcus Bryant, 70, 100%
RG Cam’Ron Johnson, 70, 100%
WR Theo Wease Jr., 67, 96%
LG Cayden Green, 63, 90%
WR Luther Burden III, 57, 81%
TE Jordon Harris, 47, 67%
HB Jamal Roberts, 43, 61%
WR Marquis Johnson, 40, 57%
TE Brett Norfleet, 28, 40%
WR Mekhi Miller, 26, 37%
HB Marcus Carroll, 15, 21%
LG Mitchell Walters, 12, 17%
HB Nate Noel, 8, 11%
WR Daniel Blood, 5, 7%
HB Tavorus Jones, 4, 6%
WR Joshua Manning, 3, 4%
LT Tristan Wilson, 1, 1%
TE Tyler Stephens, 1, 1%
• Redshirt freshman Jamal Roberts played noticably more than Marcus Carroll for the second week i na row.
Defense
CB Dreydon Norwood, 68, 100%
DB Daylan Carnell, 67, 99%
FS Joseph Charleston, 67, 99%
DE Johnny Walker Jr., 59, 87%
LB Corey Flagg, 56, 81%
DB Nicholas Deloach Jr., 51, 74%
LB Triston Newson, 50, 72%
DE Zion Young, 45, 65%
DL Kristian Williams, 44, 64%
DL Chris McClellan, 43, 62%
DB Marvin Burks Jr., 33, 48%
CB Toriano Pride Jr., 28, 41%
DB Caleb Flagg, 27, 39%
DT Sterling Webb, 26, 38%
LB Chuck Hicks, 18, 26%
DE Eddie Kelly Jr., 13, 19%
DB Sidney Williams, 11, 16%
DL Jahkai Lang, 10, 14%
DL Jalen Marshall, 9, 13%
NT Marquis Gracial, 9, 13%
DB Tre’Vez Johnson, 9, 13%
DL Jaylen Brown, 6, 9%
LB Nicholas Rodriguez, 5, 7%
DE Williams Nwaneri, 5, 7%
• Nicholas Deloach Jr. continues to hold a more prominent role than Clemosn transfer Toriano Pride Jr.
Offense
LT Marcus Bryant, 685, 100%
RT Armand Membou, 677, 99%
RG Cam’Ron Johnson, 600, 88%
LG Cayden Green, 594, 87%
C Connor Tollison, 582, 85%
QB Brady Cook, 523, 76%
WR Theo Wease Jr., 521, 76%
WR Luther Burden III, 454, 66%
WR Mookie Cooper, 328, 48%
TE Brett Norfleet, 306, 45%
WR Mekhi Miller, 287, 42%
HB Nate Noel, 286, 42%
WR Joshua Manning, 280, 41%
TE Jordon Harris, 274, 40%
G Mitchell Walters, 256, 38%
HB Marcus Carroll, 218, 32%
QB Drew Pyne, 217, 32%
WR Marquis Johnson, 190, 28%
HB Jamal Roberts, 173, 25%
C Drake Heismeyer, 153, 22%
TE Tyler Stephens, 125, 18%
WR Daniel Blood, 114, 17%
T Jayven Richardson, 57, 8%
G Logan Reichert, 56, 8%
G Tristan Wilson, 49, 7%
HB Kewan Lacy, 42, 6%
G Curtis Peagler, 26, 4%
HB Tavorus Jones, 24, 3%
TE Jude James, 21, 3%
WR James Madison II, 13, 2%
WR Courtney Crutchfield, 10, 1%
WR Logan Muckey, 8, 1%
C Talan Chandler, 7, 1%
TE Whit Hafer, 3, 0%
QB JR Blood, 2, 0%
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