Oklahoma
Tennessee vs. Oklahoma score prediction by expert college football model
The marquee matchup of the early SEC football schedule and the conference debut for No. 15 Oklahoma comes this weekend as the Sooners welcome No. 6 Tennessee in college football’s Week 4 action on Saturday.
Big Orange has demolished everything in its wake through 3 games, outscoring opponents 191 to 3, ranking 1st nationally with 63.7 points per game on average, 3rd in rushing output, and 3rd in FBS in scoring defense behind one of the nation’s premier front seven alignments.
And while the Vols will face a tougher task against the Sooners, the home side has played some close football the last two weeks against unranked opposition.
Oklahoma slogged through a surprising 16-12 victory against lowly Houston, scoring just 2 points in the second half of that game, and was leading Tulane by 5 in the fourth quarter before scoring 10 unanswered points, including quarterback Jackson Arnold’s 24-yard touchdown run.
OU needs to make a statement here to show the SEC that it belongs, especially when looking forward to what will become an increasingly difficult schedule as the season wears on.
What can we expect from the matchup this weekend?
For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Tennessee and Oklahoma compare in this Week 4 college football game.
The simulations are favoring the road team in this SEC opener, but in a close game.
SP+ predicts that Tennessee will defeat Oklahoma by a projected score of 30 to 23 and will win the game by an expected 7.1 points.
The model is giving the Volunteers a 67 percent chance of outright victory over the Sooners.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 75-68 against the spread with a 52.4 win percentage.
Tennessee is a 7.5 point favorite against Oklahoma, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 56.5 points for the game.
FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -285 and for Oklahoma at +230 to win outright.
If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take …
Other analytical models are projecting the Vols to win this SEC opener on the road.
That includes College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.
Tennessee comes out as the projected winner in a majority 71.3 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.
That leaves Oklahoma as the expected winner in the remaining 28.7 percent of sims.
The index forecasts that Tennessee will be 8.4 points better than Oklahoma on the same field, enough for the Vols to cover this spread.
Tennessee is third among SEC teams with a 71.9 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 10.3 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.
That model expects the Sooners to win 7 games with a 14.5 percent shot at the 12-team playoff.
When: Sat., Sept. 21
Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network
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Oklahoma
‘So what? Now what?’: Alabama players react to loss to Oklahoma
No. 7 Alabama football should have defeated unranked Oklahoma. But the Crimson Tide didn’t.
Oklahoma had only won one SEC game all season. It wasn’t even bowl eligible before Saturday.
Then, the Alabama offense failed to score a touchdown and sputtered for much of the night. The Crimson Tide defense couldn’t stop Oklahoma’s rushing attack when the game was still close.
Alabama turned the ball over three times, with three Jalen Milroe interceptions.
As a result, the Crimson Tide fell 24-3 to the Sooners on Saturday at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Oklahoma.
“There is no excuse,” linebacker Jihaad Campbell said. “None. Everybody saw it. Whoever was watching the game. We lost, and we’ve got to take it on the chin and keep learning from that.”
Alabama (8-3, 4-3 SEC) gave up 325 yards, with 257 yards, on the ground to Oklahoma and two touchdowns. Oklahoma (6-5, 2-5) had the nation’s 90th ranked scoring offense entering the game.
“Our job was to out-execute those guys, and we fell short tonight,” Campbell said.
Meanwhile, the Alabama offense tallied only 234 yards, with 164 through the air and 70 on the ground, to score only a field goal.
Milroe, who gashed LSU on the ground two weeks ago, couldn’t get anything going with his legs with only seven yards on 15 carries.
“They had a great game plan for us,” offensive lineman Tyler Booker said. “We’ve just got to get a hat on a hat. We have to execute better.”
The Alabama players who took part in interviews postgame showed a clear and intentional interest in moving on quickly from the result and performance in Norman.
“So what? Now what?” Booker said. “Can’t do anything about what just happened. What we can do is make sure we prepare our tails off.”
Next up is a matchup with Auburn in the Iron Bowl at Bryant-Denny Stadium to close out the regular season. Alabama won’t make the SEC Championship Game, but it might not yet be eliminated from the playoff just yet. The Allstate playoff predictor on Saturday night gave the Crimson Tide a 31% chance to still make the postseason.
“Got a big game next week,” Booker said. “Got to put all of our focus and energy there. Can’t do anything about what just happened. We’ve got to put all of our focus and energy into next week.”
Nick Kelly is an Alabama beat writer for AL.com and the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on X and Instagram.
Oklahoma
Live Updates: No. 7 Alabama Football at Oklahoma
NORMAN, Okla.–– Alabama has one final road test to pass in the regular season if it wants to compete for an SEC title and make it back to the College Football Playoff.
The No. 7 Crimson Tide plays at Oklahoma on Saturday night in the first matchup as conference foes in the SEC. BamaCentral will have coverage all night from Norman. Follow along for updates.
BE SURE TO REFRESH YOUR BROWSER FOR THE LATEST UPDATES
(latest updates at the top)
Who: Alabama (8-2, 4-2 SEC) vs. Oklahoma (5-5, 1-4)
When: Saturday, Nov. 23, 6:30 p.m.
Where: Gaylord Family Memorial Stadium
TV: ABC/ESPN+
Radio: Crimson Tide Sports Network (Play-By-Play: Chris Stewart, Color: Tyler Watts).
Series: Oklahoma leads 3-2-1
Last meeting: Alabama defeated the Sooners in the Capital One Orange Bowl as part of the College Football Playoff 45-34. Tua Tagovailoa passed for 318 yards and four touchdowns while the Crimson Tide rushed for 200 yards across 42 carries between Josh Jacobs, Damien Harris and Najee Harris.
Last time out, Alabama: The Crimson Tide dominated Mercer 52-7 at home behind three touchdowns from Jalen Milroe and two touchdowns from Ryan Williams. The Alabama defense forced three more turnovers as they’ve now forced 16 in the last five games, making life challenging on opposing offenses.
Last time out, Oklahoma: The Sooners were off this past week, but went to Missouri two weeks ago and lost 30-23 after losing a fumble for a touchdown in the game’s final minutes. Oklahoma’s played five conference games and only won at Auburn this season.
Oklahoma
Staff predictions: Our picks for No. 7 Alabama at Oklahoma
After falling twice away from home already this season, No. 7 Alabama will look to avoid a potential trap game in its final road trip of the regular season. The Crimson Tide (8-2, 5-2 in the SEC) will visit Oklahoma (5-5, 1-5) for a 6:30 p.m. CT kickoff Saturday inside Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium.
This will be the seventh matchup between Alabama and Oklahoma. The Sooners hold a 3-2-1 advantage in the series, but the Tide won the most recent meeting, recording a 45-34 victory in the 2018 Orange Bowl. Alabama is currently a 14-point favorite for Saturday’s game, according to the Caesars Sportsbook.
Here’s how Tide Illustrated’s staff thinks the game will play out.
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