Oklahoma
Tennessee vs. Oklahoma score prediction by expert college football model
The marquee matchup of the early SEC football schedule and the conference debut for No. 15 Oklahoma comes this weekend as the Sooners welcome No. 6 Tennessee in college football’s Week 4 action on Saturday.
Big Orange has demolished everything in its wake through 3 games, outscoring opponents 191 to 3, ranking 1st nationally with 63.7 points per game on average, 3rd in rushing output, and 3rd in FBS in scoring defense behind one of the nation’s premier front seven alignments.
And while the Vols will face a tougher task against the Sooners, the home side has played some close football the last two weeks against unranked opposition.
Oklahoma slogged through a surprising 16-12 victory against lowly Houston, scoring just 2 points in the second half of that game, and was leading Tulane by 5 in the fourth quarter before scoring 10 unanswered points, including quarterback Jackson Arnold’s 24-yard touchdown run.
OU needs to make a statement here to show the SEC that it belongs, especially when looking forward to what will become an increasingly difficult schedule as the season wears on.
What can we expect from the matchup this weekend?
For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Tennessee and Oklahoma compare in this Week 4 college football game.
The simulations are favoring the road team in this SEC opener, but in a close game.
SP+ predicts that Tennessee will defeat Oklahoma by a projected score of 30 to 23 and will win the game by an expected 7.1 points.
The model is giving the Volunteers a 67 percent chance of outright victory over the Sooners.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 75-68 against the spread with a 52.4 win percentage.
Tennessee is a 7.5 point favorite against Oklahoma, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 56.5 points for the game.
FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -285 and for Oklahoma at +230 to win outright.
If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take …
Other analytical models are projecting the Vols to win this SEC opener on the road.
That includes College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.
Tennessee comes out as the projected winner in a majority 71.3 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.
That leaves Oklahoma as the expected winner in the remaining 28.7 percent of sims.
The index forecasts that Tennessee will be 8.4 points better than Oklahoma on the same field, enough for the Vols to cover this spread.
Tennessee is third among SEC teams with a 71.9 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 10.3 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.
That model expects the Sooners to win 7 games with a 14.5 percent shot at the 12-team playoff.
When: Sat., Sept. 21
Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network
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OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLA (KOKH) — The Oklahoma City Fire Department responded to a home fire late Tuesday evening, around 10:42 p.m.
According to OKCFD, fire could be seen from a window of the home located in the 4200 block of N. Phillips Avenue.
Firefighters were able to rescue an adult female from inside the home. No injuries were reported in connection with the fire.
Investigators believe that the fire may have originated from an outlet near the refrigerator that had a power strip plugged in that was supplying multiple appliances.
There was also no smoke detector present within the home.
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NORMAN — The Sooners were behind the eight ball for much of Tuesday’s game against Oral Roberts.
But one swing of the bat got them in a more favorable position.
Shortstop Jaxon Willits blasted a grand slam in the sixth inning to give No. 14 Oklahoma its first lead before eventually winning 7-6.
The Sooners trailed by as many as five runs before they rallied late.
In the first inning, Oral Roberts’ Cooper Combs hit a two-out grand slam to give the Golden Eagles a comfortable cushion. OU infielder Deiten Lachance got the Sooners on the board in the second inning with a solo home run, but ORU responded with a solo shot of its own in the next frame.
The Golden Eagles made it a 6-1 run game in the top of the fourth, and they appeared to be on cruise control. But in the bottom of that frame, OU’s rally began.
Dasan Harris made it a four-run game again with a sacrifice fly in the bottom of the fourth before Camden Johnson hit a sacrifice fly of his own in the fifth.
Then, in the sixth, the Sooners took their first lead of the game.
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Harris singled before Kyle Branch and Connor Larkin walked to load the bases. Willits then swung at the first pitch he saw, sending it well over the right-center field fence.
Neither team scored after Willits’ home run, as OU relief pitcher Xander Mercurius retired nine ORU batters in a row to seal the Sooners’ one-run win.
Michael Catalano started on the mound for Oklahoma, but his outing was short-lived — he gave up four earned runs on two hits and five walks in 1 ⅓ innings.
After coach Skip Johnson relieved Catalano in the second inning, six different OU arms entered the game. Reid Hensley collected the win, while Mercurius got the save.
OU improved to 28-12 overall with the win, while Oral Roberts dropped to 23-15. The Sooners are 7-3 in midweek games this season, and they clinched the season sweep of the Golden Eagles on Tuesday.
Next, the Sooners will hit the road for a three-game series against Auburn. The Tigers, ranked No. 11 by D1Baseball, are 10-8 in SEC play and took two of three games against Florida over the weekend.
The series will open on Friday, and first pitch is scheduled for 6 p.m.
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NORMAN — After an up-and down week that saw Oklahoma drop the lone Bedlam match of the season, and then split two tight games with Arkansas before blowing out the Razorbacks on Sunday, the Sooners remained No. 1 in the NFCA/Go Rout coaches’ poll released Tuesday.
But there’s far from a consensus.
Oklahoma received 12 first-place votes — the same total they had last week — but five other teams received first-place votes.
Texas Tech remained No. 2 with four four-place votes and Alabama No. 3 with seven. Nebraska moved up two spots to No. 4 with four first-place votes, followed by Florida with two and UCLA with two.
Texas is No. 7, followed by Tennessee, Arkansas and Florida State.
Texas A&M, the Sooners’ opponent for the final regular-season weekend in two weeks, comes in at No. 11.
Other SEC teams include Georgia at No. 15, Mississippi State at No. 17 and LSU at No. 20.
OU hosts the Georgia Bulldogs in a three-game series beginning Friday.
Other Sooners’ opponents this season in the polls include No. 14 Duke, No. 18 Oklahoma State, No. 19 Arizona, No. 24 Arizona State and No. 25 Washington.
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Oklahoma also remained in the top spot in the D1Softball poll, with Alabama No. 2 there followed by Texas Tech, Nebraska at Texas.
The Sooners dropped a spot in the Softball America poll, with Nebraska elevating to No. 1 behind the two-way stardom of former OU standout Jordy Frahm (formerly Jordy Bahl).
Frahm is 13-4 with a 1.36 ERA and 157 strikeouts in 118 2/3 innings in the circle and hitting .440 with 16 home runs and 42 RBIs. Another former Sooners player, Hannah Coor, is among the Cornhuskers’ regulars as well.
The Sooners have 158 home runs, just three away from tying their own season record in the category, but UCLA has closed the gap in a major way, sitting just four behind Oklahoma.
OU freshman sensation Kendall Wells leads the nation with 34 home runs, three ahead of UCLA’s Megan Grant. Wells tied Jocelyn Alo‘s program record for home runs in a season with her home run in Sunday’s win.
The Sooners host Arkansas-Pine Bluff at 6 p.m. Tuesday in their final non-conference game of the season before opening the series against Georgia at 6:30 p.m. Friday at Love’s FIeld.
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