Drake Maye put himself firmly on NFL radars within his first few games as North Carolina’s starting quarterback in 2022, and the dream is set to become a reality on Thursday.

While Maye isn’t expected to be the No. 1 overall pick, he’s believed to be in play as early as No. 2. Either way, he will undoubtedly become a team’s franchise quarterback early in the first round.

Maye hit some bumps late in his junior season with the Tar Heels, posting overall numbers that didn’t quite match his 2022 production, but his raw arm talent is up there with the very best signal-callers in the draft. Whether he can reach his full potential is still a mystery, and it’s something the Commanders, Patriots, and perhaps other teams are wrestling with ahead of draft day.

Here’s a closer look at Maye’s strengths and weaknesses, along with his best NFL comparisons.

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Drake Maye NFL Draft scouting report

Maye and J.J. McCarthy are in a class of their own in one important aspect: age. Maye and McCarthy are the only two of the potential six first-round quarterbacks younger than 22, and that’s not something NFL teams should ignore. Any franchise that drafts Maye knows he will still have room to grow as a passer, which adds an element of risk but also raises his ceiling above older, more refined prospects.

Maye’s profile is all about arm talent. He flashed ridiculous arm strength at North Carolina and doesn’t have any natural limitations entering the NFL. Between his ability to make tight-window throws, take deep downfield shots, and extend plays with his athleticism, it’s no surprise NFL front offices see all of the tools they want in a franchise quarterback.

There are areas of Maye’s game that require development. His footwork has drawn criticism, as it’s believed it affects his accuracy, and he tapered off toward the end of each of his seasons as a starter for the Tar Heels. Sustaining strong performances over a 17-game schedule could be a growing pain for Maye.

Decision-making was a large part of the problem for Maye at North Carolina. While likely No. 1 pick Caleb Williams was lauded for making the most of plays that didn’t go the way he intended, Maye had a bit of a tougher time adjusting on the fly. That makes it essential that whichever team drafts Maye is able to protect him well and avoid plays constantly breaking down early in his career.

Tools and production often get quarterbacks drafted early, regardless of what other development is still needed. Maye had both at North Carolina, and his skill set will tantalize whichever fan base gets to call him its quarterback.

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Drake Maye stats

Maye finished his career fifth in Tar Heels history with 8,018 passing yards and fourth with 63 touchdown passes despite only starting games in two seasons.

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Drake Maye NFL comparisons

Justin Herbert

From a pure draft stock standpoint, Maye’s status has mirrored Herbert’s. Herbert was widely considered the No. 2 or No. 3 QB in the 2020 draft after Joe Burrow won the Heisman Trophy, but despite a talented arm and prototypical NFL quarterback size, many believed he didn’t consistently look like a star at Oregon despite spending four seasons as a starter.

Maye profiles similarly. The arm talent is unquestioned, and his size is ideal. Turnovers are also fairly limited. Like Herbert, however, accuracy was often more hit-or-miss than NFL scouts would like. Herbert and Maye both had some confusing college performances for their talent level while looking dominant in others.

As the Chargers found out almost immediately, betting on Herbert’s arm and size proved to be the right call. Some teams might have overthought Herbert’s fixable flaws, and the Commanders will have to carefully consider whether they’re doing the same with Maye if they roll with Jayden Daniels or J.J. McCarthy over the UNC product. 

Sam Howell

Could Maye be a higher-ceiling version of Sam Howell? Yes, the comparison is easy to make with both quarterbacks playing at North Carolina, but they profile similarly.

Howell showed in his only season as the Commanders’ starter that his raw arm talent is real. Too often, however, risks turned into turnovers. Howell also struggled to salvage plays when they broke down, waiting too long in the pocket and taking an exorbitant amount of sacks. 

Maye similarly had some issues at North Carolina when plays broke down, though he’s enjoyed better accuracy than Howell and isn’t prone to quite as many risky passes. 

“Maye has a nice combination of accuracy and athleticism reminiscent of former Commanders QB Sam Howell, another former Tar Heel,” SN’s Vinnie Iyer wrote in his NFL Draft big board. “Maye is a much better passer with a more ideal frame to handle pressure at a higher level.”

Behind the right offensive line and with the right development, it’s not far-fetched to say Howell could be a solid NFL starter. With Maye’s better decision-making skills and an excellent arm, his ceiling should be far above Howell’s, but his floor is probably similar to what we’ve seen from Howell early in his career.

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Drake Maye mock draft

SN mock draft projection: No. 3, Patriots

SN’s Vinnie Iyer has the Patriots taking Maye with the No. 3 overall pick in his latest 3-round mock draft.

Maye began the offseason as the projected No. 2 pick to the Commanders, but Jayden Daniels’ rise after his Heisman Trophy season has given the North Carolina product serious competition at that spot. 

If Maye does slide past No. 2, he likely won’t have to wait long. The Patriots are fully expected to draft a quarterback at No. 3 as long as they keep their pick, and Iyer’s projection sees New England as a strong fit for the 21-year-old. Even if the Patriots surprise the league and take J.J. McCarthy, plenty of teams could be candidates to trade up and select Maye soon after.