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Reading gains real, Los Angeles Times owes Mississippi an apology

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Reading gains real, Los Angeles Times owes Mississippi an apology


Critics of Mississippi’s vaunted reading gains are wrong. Families, students, and educators deserve credit for what they’ve achieved.

Earlier this month, Los Angeles Times columnist Michael Hiltzik declared Mississippi’s much touted gains in reading a sham. Hiltzik, whose most recent claim to fame was calling for unvaccinated COVID deaths to be “mocked,” argued the Magnolia State “gamed” its results.

He was dead wrong. Embarrassingly so.

Relying on two bloggers’ statistical analysis, Hiltzik did his own mocking–excoriating members of the media for accepting at face value clear Mississippi gains on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) reading test.

He wrote, “there is a lesson here, however. It’s not about how to effectively teach kids to read, but how difficult it is to teach journalists how to scrutinize statistical claims.”

On this point, Hiltzik and I agree. Because there were glaring red flags in the statistical analysis he bolstered in a floundering effort to disprove Mississippi’s achievements. Indeed, the bloggers who performed the analysis have since admitted they were wrong.

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The Los Angeles Times has done no mea culpa for a column that was picked up across the country by other unquestioning outlets.

Before explaining the numerous flaws in Hiltzik’s botched takedown, let us back up and explore what he was attempting to take down.

Mississippi’s Very Real Gains

In 2013, the Mississippi Legislature passed a package of education reforms. Among the changes, the Literacy Based Promotion Act, a law which requires that students achieve basic grade level reading in third grade before being advanced to fourth grade.

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Since the passage of the LBPA, sometimes referred to as the “Third Grade Reading Gate,” Mississippi students and teachers have performed admirably.

In 2013, white students in Mississippi ranked 49th in the country on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) reading tests. Only Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Maine had worse scores for African American students.

By 2022, the latest year of NAEP testing, white fourth graders in Mississippi were performing 10th best among the states. Mississippi’s African American fourth graders rose to achieve the 5th highest score among the states.

These gains have been heralded by education experts and those reporting on education across the country, from EdPost to the Associated Press to the New York Times.

Hiltzik’s Hit

Michael Hiltzik could not allow Mississippi to get these accolades without a fight. It is clear from his writing that he loathes the very concept of our state. Half of his critique of Mississippi’s reading achievements is wholly unrelated to reading. Instead, he spends ten solid paragraphs scoffing at Mississippi for having in place restrictions on abortion and failing to expand Medicaid.

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Whatever a person’s views are on abortion and health care, it is illogical to use Mississippi’s current posture on those issues as proof that reading gains are not real.

Hiltzik’s next line of attack is to play the race card–highlighting a 25-point disparity between white students’ and black students’ scores in Mississippi.

(Hiltzik actually misreported the disparity as being 28 points, but who needs accuracy when lecturing about journalistic integrity?)

The existence of a racial gap is not proof that gains are not real, particularly when both races have significantly upped their game. Remember, Mississippi’s African American population swung from 5th worst in the nation to 5th best in the nation on NAEP’s fourth grade reading test between 2013 and 2022.

There, unfortunately, is a racial performance gap across the country. It’s not unique to us. Mississippi’s gap is actually the 7th lowest among states that track the statistic.

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With a 37-point disparity, Hiltzik’s enlightened state of California is the second worst. It’s a national problem that deserves attention, but it does not render meaningless real gains made by both races in Mississippi.

Finally, Hiltzik turns to the only argument actually related to the claim that Mississippi “gamed” its gains. Two bloggers, Bob Somerby and Kevin Drum, undertook an analysis of the NAEP gains and came to the conclusion that the gains were almost all attributable to the lowest performing students in 3rd grade being held back, and thus, excluded from the 4th grade testing pool.

Their conclusion was that without retention, scores would not have gone up.

Had Hiltzik been the least bit curious, he could have spotted deficiencies in the argument from several miles away–even through Los Angeles’ dense smog.

For starters, Somerby and Drum rounded up the percentage of students being retained in the 3rd grade to 10 percent. No statistician would ever do that.

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More importantly, they assumed for their analysis that the percentage of students being retained prior to the passage of the Literacy Based Promotion Act was zero. Any real statistician would have sought to understand what the retention rate was before the LBPA to have a point of comparison.

If, as is actually the case, the retention rate did not significantly increase from before the LBPA was passed, then the gains that have occurred since the LBPA cannot be attributed to retention.

In 2019, the Fordham Institute made the same mistake as Somerby and Drum, only to come back in August of 2022 and admit it was wrong. What the researchers at Fordham ultimately discovered was that the ages of Mississippi children taking the 4th grade NAEP prior to the LBPA and after the LBPA were the same.

In other words, the increased performance was not attributable to increasing the age of the testing pool. It was not a byproduct of holding students back.

The analysis relied upon by Hiltzik now includes a disclaimer at the top which reads:

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WARNING: This post is almost certainly wrong. Click here for an update showing how and why Mississippi test scores really did go up after 2013.

The updated blog post draws the same conclusion drawn by the Fordham Institute.

It is also worth noting that even if retention had played a significant role in increasing performance, that would not really be a sign of a gamed system. A child held back does eventually move forward to the next grade. There aren’t a bunch of 18 year olds sitting in the third grade.

If giving a student an extra year to learn to read results in the pool of NAEP test takers performing better in the fourth grade, I struggle to understand how that is a bad thing. It seems like it would just be proof of the wisdom of the approach.

In-State Questions Raised

Over the weekend, the Mississippi Center for Public Policy released its own analysis of Mississippi’s reading gains. Focusing on the period between 2019 and 2022, the think tank concluded that “claims being made that there has been a ‘Mississippi miracle’ are not, sadly, substantiated by the facts.”

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Mississippi Center’s CEO, Douglas Carswell, correctly notes that during this period, Mississippi’s fourth grade reading score declined from 219 points to 217 points.

So much of statistical analysis is wrapped up in start dates and end dates. Those education scholars who have sung Mississippi’s praise for improving reading scores use 2013 as the start date, since that is when the Literacy Based Promotion Act passed. The greatest period of growth in scores after the LBPA took place between 2013 and 2019.

Starting the analysis in 2019, at the current high water mark, does not account for the previous six year period of gains.

The fact that our state basically held serve between the 2019 test and the 2022 test should also not be discounted. NAEP testing typically takes place every other year. COVID disrupted the testing pattern. 2022 was the first year since 2019 for the tests. Most of the nation experienced significant declines in scores.

In view of the systemic disruptions to learning caused by COVID, Mississippi maintaining reading gains is an achievement, one that is reflected in NAEP rankings. In 2019, white students in Mississippi were ranked 18th nationally in fourth grade reading. That same year, African American students ranked 7th. In 2022, those rankings improved to 10th and 5th, respectively.

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Where the Mississippi Center for Public Policy’s analysis warrants deeper conversation, in my estimation, is on questions outside of fourth grading reading achievements. It is possible both to recognize the tremendous gains made and simultaneously to recognize the need for more improvement in the system. It’s not a zero sum game.





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Mississippi

Arizona State football turns heads with ‘unreal’ uniforms vs Mississippi State

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Arizona State football turns heads with ‘unreal’ uniforms vs Mississippi State


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The Arizona State football team elevated its play on the field in its 48-7 win over Wyoming in Week 1.

It is elevating its uniform game for Week 2 against Mississippi State.

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ASU football is wearing a gold alternate jersey against the Bulldogs at Mountain America Stadium in Tempe on Saturday night.

The jersey includes maroon “Arizona State” lettering and maroon numbering, along with a noticeable Big 12 logo.

The Sun Devil football team unveiled the uniform last month, with Athletic Director Graham Rossini posting that “you’ll see this on the field early this season.”

On Thursday, ASU football announced that it would be wearing the uniform against Mississippi State with a video that said “Modern shine, with a classic design.”

On Friday, it posted another look at the uniform.

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More: Arizona State vs Mississippi State live score updates, analysis for college football game

ASU vs Mississippi State schedule, TV: How to watch college football game

Promising look: Arizona State football’s 2024 win prediction doubles after Week 1 victory over Wyoming

Social media reacted favorably overall to ASU football’s uniform vs Mississippi State:

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Do you like the look for ASU football?

ASU vs. Mississippi State picks: Who wins Week 2 college football game?

Looking promising: Arizona State football makes huge leap in college football ranking, Big 12 power rankings

Reach Jeremy Cluff at jeremy.cluff@arizonarepublic.com. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter @Jeremy_Cluff.

Support local journalism: Subscribe to azcentral.com today.

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Bus company in deadly Mississippi crash has mixed safety record: USDOT

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Bus company in deadly Mississippi crash has mixed safety record: USDOT


WARREN COUNTY, Miss. (WJTV) – There are questions about a bus company’s track record after a fatal bus crash in Mississippi on Saturday, August 31.

Seven people died when a passenger bus traveling on Interstate 20 left the roadway and overturned. The Mississippi Highway Patrol (MHP) said that 41 passengers and two drivers were enroute to Dallas from Atlanta.

Autobuses Regiomontanos owned the bus in the crash. The company, which is registered with the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), has had a troubled record in recent memory. It consists of lawsuits, driver fitness violations and even another fatal crash in 2023.

According to the DOT, the company, based in Laredo, Texas, operates 17 vehicles and employs 39 drivers. The company currently has a ‘conditional‘ safety rating. It is given to companies with ‘inadequate‘ safety controls. Still, companies with this rating may continue to operate.

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Its most recent compliance review occurred in July 2023. Using data available from the DOT’s Safety Management System, it has had 155 inspections. Of those inspections, 58 had violations. Nearly all were vehicle maintenance violations.

Three infractions between October and December of 2023 involved issues with vehicle tires. Other infractions included 16 brake or air brake violations and citations for having two buses with no or defective emergency exits.

Seven victims killed in Mississippi bus crash identified

Other inspection violations related to the bus company’s drivers. All violations occurred this year. They include the following:

  • (1) Operating a commercial vehicle without corrective lenses or hearing aids as indicated on the driver’s medical certificate (2) Operating a commercial motor vehicle (CMV) while not possessing a valid commercial driver’s license (CDL).

    • 05/13/2024

    • 05/14/2024

    • 05/14/2024

    • 05/28/2024

  • Operate a CMV while not in possession of a CDL on person.

DOT data indicates that company buses have been in four separate accidents over the last two years. A November 2022 crash required a bus to be towed away and another in April 2023 resulted in someone dying. Below is the record.

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Date

Location

Deaths

Injuries

10/16/2023

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Louisiana

0

1

4/15/2023

Texas

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1

2

11/23/2022

Tennessee

0

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0

9/24/2022

Arkansas

0

1

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The NTSB is investigating the crash in conjunction with MHP. NTSB officials said they will look at the carrier’s safety record and protections for bus occupants.

Community comes together to help Mississippi bus crash victims

Autobuses Regiomontanos violated several provisions of the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA). According to the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), it failed to have an ADA training program in place for its employees and contractors, failed to file required ADA compliance reports and failed to ensure that all lifts on its buses were properly maintained.

In 2015, the company entered into a settlement agreement with the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Texas.

The company was also named as a defendant in a $708 million lawsuit filed by New York City City in January. The city accused Autobuses Regiomontanos and other charter bus and transportation companies of taking migrants to the Big Apple on behalf of the State of Texas.

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The DOT advises travelers to do the following before they book their next bus trip.

  • Search for bus companies

  • Verify that a company is authorized to operate

  • Review the company’s safety records

  • Make sure the company is licensed and insured

  • If appropriate, report a company

DOT agencies advise consumers that unless a motor carrier has received an unsatisfactory rating or has been ordered to discontinue its operations, it is authorized to operate on the nation’s roadways. Additionally, readers should not conclude that a carrier is safe or unsafe by only using data from DOT agencies. For more information, click here.

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For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to WJTV.



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As Climate Threats to Agriculture Mount, Could the Mississippi River Delta Be the Next California? – Inside Climate News

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As Climate Threats to Agriculture Mount, Could the Mississippi River Delta Be the Next California? – Inside Climate News


This story was originally published by The Tennessee Lookout.

A smorgasbord of bright red tomatoes and vibrant vegetables line the walls of Michael Katrutsa’s produce shop in rural Camden, Tennessee. What began a decade ago as a roadside farm stand is now an air-conditioned outbuilding packed with crates of watermelon, cantaloupe and his locally renowned sweet corn — all picked fresh by a handful of local employees each morning.

The roughly 20-acre farm west of the Tennessee River sells about half of its produce through his shop, with the rest going to the wholesale market.

Farms like Katrutsa’s make up just a sliver of roughly 10.7 million acres of Tennessee farmland largely dominated by hay, soybeans, corn and cotton. Specialized machines help farmers harvest vast quantities of these commodity “row crops,” but Katrutsa said the startup cost was too steep for him. While specialty crops like produce are more labor-intensive, requiring near-constant attention from early July up until the first frost in October, Katrutsa said he takes pride in feeding his neighbors.

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The World Wildlife Fund sees farms in the mid-Mississippi delta as ripe with opportunity to become a new mecca for commercial-scale American produce. California currently grows nearly three-quarters of the nation’s fruits and nuts and more than a third of its vegetables. 

Election 2024

Explore the latest news about what’s at stake for the climate during this election season.

But as climate change compounds the threats of water scarcity, extreme weather and wildfires on California’s resources, WWF’s Markets Institute is exploring what it would take for farmers in West Tennessee, Mississippi and Arkansas to embrace — and equitably profit from — specialty crop production like strawberries, lettuce or walnuts. 

Specialty crops make up only 0.19% of the region’s farm acreage, but their higher sale value allows them to generate 1.08% of the region’s agriculture revenue, according to WWF’s May report, called The Next California, spearheaded by Markets Institute Senior Director Julia Kurnik. She argues that there’s an opportunity to proactively create more inclusive, higher-yield business models on existing farms, preventing natural ecosystems from being unnecessarily transformed into farmland.

But shifting produce growth to the Mid-Delta comes with hurdles: it requires buyers willing to try new markets, understanding of new crops’ diseases and needs, specialized equipment like cold storage and lots of expensive hands-on labor.

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“It is not as simple as a farmer simply putting new crops in the ground,” Kurnik said.

Early Adopters Put Idea to the Test

Sixth-generation Arkansas farmer Hallie Shoffner is putting WWF’s models to the test through a nonprofit called the Delta Harvest Food Hub. The hub works with Black and women farmers to pilot the scalability of growing specialty crops in the Delta region, starting with specialty rice.

Shoffner grows basmati, jasmine, sushi rice, sake rice seeds and more on her 2,000-acre, century-old farm located in an unincorporated town outside Newport, Arkansas. She’s skeptical about a full switch to produce, but sees specialty rice products as “low-hanging fruit” easily adopted in the mid-Delta, where commodity rice is already widely grown.

The United States is the fifth-largest rice exporter in the world, and Arkansas is the country’s top producer, with other Mississippi River valley states not far behind. But the majority of specialty rice is grown in California or imported from East Asian countries.

Sixth-generation Arkansas farmer Hallie Shoffner grows specialty rice like basmati, jasmine and sushi rice, on her farm near Newport, Arkansas. Credit: Phillip Powell/Arkansas TimesSixth-generation Arkansas farmer Hallie Shoffner grows specialty rice like basmati, jasmine and sushi rice, on her farm near Newport, Arkansas. Credit: Phillip Powell/Arkansas Times
Arkansas rice farmer Hallie Shoffner runs the nonprofit Delta Harvest Food Hub, which works with farmers to pilot the scalability of growing specialty crops in the Delta region, starting with specialty rice. Credit: Phillip Powell/Arkansas TimesArkansas rice farmer Hallie Shoffner runs the nonprofit Delta Harvest Food Hub, which works with farmers to pilot the scalability of growing specialty crops in the Delta region, starting with specialty rice. Credit: Phillip Powell/Arkansas Times
Sixth-generation Arkansas farmer Hallie Shoffner grows specialty rice like basmati, jasmine and sushi rice, on her farm near Newport, Arkansas. Credit: Phillip Powell/Arkansas Times

“We are forward-thinking farmers who want to change, who want to do something different,” Shoffner said. “We want to make more money, because we know we cannot make as much money as small farms in the current agricultural economy.”

The commodity farming that dominates Delta agriculture makes the economic success of farmers largely dependent on the market prices of rice, corn, soybeans, wheat and other crops, Shoffner said. This incentivizes farms to grow larger to ensure they turn a profit even when prices are low, like they are now. But smaller farms struggle to stay afloat.

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Shoffner said her vision for developing specialty crop markets in Arkansas will be through more collaboration between many smaller farms to diversify crop production and produce for large contracts together. She’s also exploring possibilities for expanding chickpea, sunflower, sesame and pea production in Arkansas.

And while she’s at it, Shoffner is working to make agriculture more equitable.

“As a white farmer who is a sixth generation farmer, I realize that I have inherited a large amount of land that systematically disenfranchised Black farmers,” Shoffner said. “And it is my responsibility to acknowledge that, and leverage what I’ve been given to help others.”

Her project, Delta Harvest, has a contract to grow specialty rice with a large company and she’s working with several Black farmers. She was too small to do it by herself, so they are doing it cooperatively.

Finding the Right Markets

In Mississippi, efforts to shift some of California’s sprawling specialty crop industry to the Mid-Delta drew skepticism from some farmers—even those with established specialty crop operations.

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For the past 20 years, Don van de Werken has co-owned a 120-acre blueberry and tea farm in Poplarville, Mississippi, distributing much of its crops to buyers in his county and nearby cities.

Van de Werken questioned whether there would be enough regional demand to sustain a scaled-up specialty crop industry in Mississippi, noting that the success of his own enterprise hinges on targeting hyper-local markets like New Orleans. Shipping vegetables, fruits and other produce to buyers outside the Delta region would quickly become cost prohibitive for local farmers, van de Werken said.

“The problem we have, not just in Mississippi but the mid South in general, is we just don’t have the population base,” said van de Werken, who is also president of the Gulf South Blueberry Growers Association. “We don’t want our blueberries to go to Maine or Seattle. We want to focus our produce in a regional market.”

To make growing specialty crops worthwhile, Mississippi farmers would need to identify nearby buyers willing to purchase the new products on a consistent basis, van de Werken said. While selling goods directly to retail grocery chains like Kroger is often difficult, farmers could reduce financial risks by signing purchasing agreements with regional brokers like Louisiana-based Capitol City Produce.

“Anybody that puts anything in the ground is already taking a risk, but you want to minimize that risk,” he explained. “If you can prove to the brokers and the buyers that they can make money doing this, then the farming will come.”

The WWF report investigates ways to distribute risk across the supply chain to make selling to new markets easier on farmers, and works to connect buyers with Mid-Delta farmers. 

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AgLaunch, a Memphis-based nonprofit that guides farmers in innovation, estimates that adding specialty crops to the Mid-Delta region could spur $4.6 billion in added revenue and 33,000 jobs. But while commodity crop prices are readily available on the Chicago Board of Trade, the specialty crop market is generally not so transparent. Large, vertically integrated companies usually dictate contract terms, AgLaunch President and farmer Pete Nelson said.

AgLaunch helps build “smart contracts” that allow multiple farmers to produce on a contract, helping them secure higher quantity deals with proper compensation as a collective. 

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Purdue College of Agriculture professor Fred Whitford said the idea of farming cooperatives that help smaller farmers carve out space in a large-quantity market is more than 100 years old. Whitford compared commodity producers to retail giants like Walmart, which make money by selling in bulk. Small producers are more like Ace Hardware, he said.

“Maybe the smaller folks have an ability to make more off their land by going to a specialty crop,” he said.

New Challenges Need New Solutions

Farmers who embrace specialty crops will face hurdles before they make it to the market.

Growing produce can be more profitable but “easier said than done,” Whitford said. “It’s nice on paper … but boy, in reality, you’re going to have to keep an eye on this crop, whatever you’re growing, because one slip up … then you have lost a lot of money.”

In Tennessee, Katrutsa grew strawberries in addition to his other crops for 10 years, but last April, a hail storm pulverized his entire field, leaving him with nothing. He’s not growing strawberries this year, and he might not plant them again — he’s not sure if he can find enough labor to make it work.

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He grows many types of produce so if one fails, it’s less catastrophic. He sources seedlings from a neighboring state (it’s cheaper than growing from seed) and plants five times each season to maximize yield.

He works with a consultant to help identify diseases and how to treat them. Tomatoes are the most challenging, Katrutsa said. Some of his tomato plants withered this year due to bacterial wilt that flourishes in wet soil and high temperatures and has few effective chemical remedies.

Carolyn Preble helps out farmer Michael Katrutsa at the farm shop, which stocks the more than 20 acres of produce Katrutsa grows in rural Camden, Tennessee. Credit: John Partipilo/Tennessee Lookout

Chemical treatments pose other challenges. In Shaw, Mississippi, Michael Muzzi relies on a range of herbicides to grow soybeans and other feed grains on his 2,000-acre farm. Once sprayed, herbicides like Liberty and Dicamba remain in the ground and can drift in the air, which is hazardous to specialty crops, like tomatoes, that aren’t resistant.

“You’re not going to be able to spray [those herbicides] on specialty crops,” Muzzi said.  “You’d have to have something that’s chemically tolerant.”

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Growing fruits and vegetables on a farm with previous heavy herbicide use would require insulating those crops from chemical runoff — a feat that could only be reliably achieved by leaving whole acres of land unused for years, he said.

AgLaunch is exploring innovative ways to address these problems. For some farmers, this means helping make their existing row crops more efficient using farmer-incubated technology, adding local value by growing specialty crops or taking on processing, Nelson said. 

Then there’s disruption with higher risk: farmers can partner with agriculture automation technology startups, allowing them to field test their products and collect data in exchange for farmer equity in the startup companies. If the startup succeeds, the farmer shares in the benefits.

“It’s not as simple as, ‘Hey, we should grow tomatoes,’” Nelson said. “It’s how you think about the whole value chain and make sure the farmer is protected. Make sure it’s not an opportunity just to grow a crop, but it’s an opportunity to own part of the processing or to build new products.”

Kurnik said WWF isn’t trying to recruit farmers to start growing specialty crops – they just want Mid-Delta farmers to have the information they need to make informed decisions. In terms of acreage, row crops “dwarf” specialty crops in the United States. A small percentage shift would mean a significant change in the level of specialty crops in the Delta.

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“We don’t need everyone to want to jump on board tomorrow,” she said. “They would flood the market if they did.”

This story is a product of the Mississippi River Basin Ag & Water Desk, an independent reporting network based at the University of Missouri in partnership with Report for America, with major funding from the Walton Family Foundation. Disclosure: The Next California report was also funded by Walton. 

About This Story

Perhaps you noticed: This story, like all the news we publish, is free to read. That’s because Inside Climate News is a 501c3 nonprofit organization. We do not charge a subscription fee, lock our news behind a paywall, or clutter our website with ads. We make our news on climate and the environment freely available to you and anyone who wants it.

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