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Michigan State basketball vs. Mississippi NCAA tournament tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction

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Michigan State basketball vs. Mississippi NCAA tournament tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction


• What: No. 2-seed Michigan State vs. 6-seed Mississippi, NCAA tournament South Regional semifinal

• When: 7:09 p.m. Friday

• Where: State Farm Arena, Atlanta

TV/Radio: CBS/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 201

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• Records/Rankings: MSU is 29-6 overall after winning its first two NCAA tournament games. The Spartans finished 17-3 in the Big Ten, winning the league outright. Mississippi is 24-11 overall after its two NCAA tournament wins. The Rebels finished 10-8 in SEC play.

• Betting line: MSU -3.5

• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 735-301 in his 30th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Mississippi — Chris Beard is 280-120 in his 13th season as a head coach, including 44-23 in his second season with the Rebels. Notably, he was the coach of the Texas Tech team that beat MSU in the 2019 Final Four.

• Series: This is only the second meeting between the two programs, with MSU winning the previous game, in the second round of the 1999 NCAA tournament.

Projected lineups

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MSU

C (10) Szymon Zapala (7-0) 4.3

F (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 7.8

G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 12.7

G (11) Jase Richardson (6-3) 11.9

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PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 7.4

Mississippi

C (0) Malik Dia (6-9) 10.7

F (14) Dre Davis (6-6) 10.3

G (11) Matthew Murrell (6-4) 10.7

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G (3) Sean Pedulla (6-1) 15.2

G (5) Jaylen Murray (5-11) 10.5

• MSU update: The Spartans enter the regional semifinals after two hard-fought NCAA tournament wins, over Bryant and then New Mexico. In neither game did MSU have control until the second half. This is MSU’s 16th Sweet 16 under Tom Izzo. Only Duke has more Sweet 16 appearances since Izzo made his first 27 years ago. MSU’s last Sweet 16 was two years ago in New York, where the Spartans lost to Kansas State in overtime. MSU is No. 5 nationally in defensive efficiency, per Kenpom, and No. 1 defending the 3-point line, allowing opponents to shoot just 27.8% from long range, and No. 8 in defensive rebounding percentage. The Spartans’ bugaboo is inconsistency with outside shooting, making just 31% of their own 3-point tries, which is 323rd nationally.

MORE: Couch: Jaden Akins met the moment Sunday in leading Michigan State to the Sweet 16

• Ole Miss update: The Rebels arrive in the Sweet 16 after impressive wins over North Carolina and No. 3-seed Iowa State. They also have wins this season over Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, BYU and Arkansas (twice) — all teams still alive in the NCAA tournament. This is Ole Miss’ first NCAA tournament since 2019 and its first Sweet 16 since 2001, which is as far as the Rebels have ever gone in an NCAA tournament. Like MSU, Ole Miss has a balanced lineup, even if not as deep. All five starters average in double figures, with four of them at around 10 points per game.

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• Matchup analysis: The Rebels present some challenges for MSU — the way they switch everyone defensively, how their guards dig down to help their bigs, the way they sacrifice offensive rebounding to get back in transition, the ability of their 5 man, Malik Dia, get downhill on the drive and also hit 3-pointers. The Spartans should have a decent edge on the glass. Ole Miss ranks in the 300s in offensive rebounding percentage and isn’t that much better on the defensive end. The matchup with Dia is probably the most interesting for MSU. Is that Carson Cooper’s assignment? Can Jaxon Kohler defend him, given that Kohler’s offense could be an issue for Dia on the other end. Can the Spartans play a center on Ole Miss’ undersized 4 man, Dre Davis, and play two bigs or even try Coen Carr on Dia? Rebels’ guard Sean Pedulla is a fantastic player and a dangerous shooter. But MSU has faced guards like him and done OK. The other big question is whether MSU can generate enough offense if it’s stuck in the half-court against a defense that requires you to break guys down individually, and whether the Spartans are able to get out and run some, which would make life a lot easier. These are two teams built on toughness and connectedness, two teams that don’t deviate from their identities. It’s hard to forecast.

MORE: Couch: How Michigan State’s basketball team grew into becoming Big Ten champions

• Prediction: I think MSU’s A-game would beat Ole Miss’ A-game more often than not. But last weekend, the Rebels played closer to that level more often than MSU did. If Jase Richardson plays like the Jase Richardson we’ve seen regularly since the beginning of February and the Spartans can get at least one of their other guards to knock down some outside shots, I like MSU’s chances at figuring this out and moving on.

• Make it: MSU 70, Ole Miss 66

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MORE: Couch: Inside Jase Richardson’s road from career-threatening surgery to MSU basketball revelation

Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.



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World Atlas names 2 Mississippi cities some of best places to live in the South. See why

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World Atlas names 2 Mississippi cities some of best places to live in the South. See why


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Thinking of moving? Mississippi has a lot to offer, and two cities were recently named some of the best places to call home in the Southeast.

“The American South stands out as one of the most diverse regions in the United States, offering a unique blend of vibrant cities, charming small towns, and striking natural landscapes, from the Appalachian Mountains to miles of coastline and rolling farmland. With a warm year-round climate and a slower pace of life, these qualities create an appealing environment for those seeking comfort and a sense of balance.” World Atlas wrote.

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The site chose nine of the best places to live in the South. The criteria included wellbeing, affordability, job opportunities, education and more.

Natchez and Biloxi made the list. Here’s what you need to know about these iconic Mississippi cities, why people love living there.

Natchez is affordable, fun

World Atlas highlighted Natchez as a historic treasure. The state’s oldest city has a long story to tell, starting with ancient Native American civilizations that called the area home. It played a key role in European settlement here, including the state spending time under French and Spanish rule before becoming part of the U.S.

“With a cost of living below the national average and a median home price of around $170,000, Natchez offers affordable housing alongside a rich cultural lifestyle,” World Atlas wrote.

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Travel + Leisure recently called Natchez a great retirement city. They advise people looking for affordable living and a walkable community to add it to their shortlists for consideration.

Biloxi has entertainment, beautiful beaches

World Atlas noted that Biloxi is a gem on the Gulf Coast. Casinos provide lots of entertainment options near white sand beaches.

“With a cost of living slightly below the national average and a median home price around $250,000, Biloxi provides an appealing combination of scenic beauty, recreational opportunities, and economic stability, making it a compelling place to call home,” World Atlas wrote.

Best places to live in the South

According to World Atlas, these are nine of the best places to live in the Southern U.S.

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  • Natchez, Mississippi
  • Harpers Ferry, West Virginia
  • Mount Airy, North Carolina
  • Florence, Alabama
  • Biloxi, Mississippi
  • Myrtle Beach, South Carolina
  • Danville, Virginia
  • Helen, Georgia
  • Guntersville, Alabama

Bonnie Bolden is the Deep South Connect reporter for Mississippi with Gannett/USA Today. Email her at bbolden@gannett.com.



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Overreaction Sunday in full swing for Mississippi State fans after loss to Florida

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Overreaction Sunday in full swing for Mississippi State fans after loss to Florida


The NFL has overreaction Monday where its fans make outlandish, emotional statements about a big change their team needs to make or how the rest of the season will go.

College football has that too, just on Sundays and there’s no shortage of overreactions being made by Mississippi State fans right now.

The Bulldogs’ 23-21 loss to Florida should have been a win and not just because of what happened at the end of the game. There were plenty of opportunities to win and that makes this loss a lot more painful and, in turn, has made some fans on social media and on message boards emotional.

Here’s three of them. How this will work is we’ll make the argument in favor of a statement and then make a judgement on if its an overreaction or not.

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Let’s begin with probably the most controversial reaction.

Shapen was 24-of-36 for 324 yards, no touchdowns, one interception and was sacked four times. He threw the game-ending interception to a defensive tackle who dropped into zone coverage.

There was also the three overthrown passes to wide receivers in the end zone in the first half. He did have two long pass completions to Anthony Evans III (48 yards) and Brenen Thompson (47) against Florida.

But for the most part, the Bulldogs’ offense didn’t do much. Their first touchdown came on the opening drive and then didn’t score again until the fourth quarter.

This decision isn’t limited to just one game, either. Shapen and the Bulldogs offense didn’t play well against Texas A&M and Shapen missed an open receiver in overtime against Tennessee to keep that game going.

With better quarterback play, Mississippi State would be 6-1 right now.

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Verdict: Overreaction.

Mississippi State’s offensive struggles aren’t just because of the quarterback play.

The offensive line has struggled in pass protection and is inconsistent in run blocking. There are fewer penalties being called against the Bulldogs, but illegal formations, false starts and holding calls still plague them.

And while putting the blame for losing to the Gators on Shapen is easy, there are other mistakes that cost the Bulldogs the game.

Kyle Ferrie “missed” a 41-yard field goal (its debatable because the ball passed right over the right upright).

Seydou Traore gets called for holding that negates a 30-yard Davon Booth run in the fourth quarter. The Bulldogs do score a touchdown on the drive to make the score 23-21, but that touchdown could have come quicker and given Mississippi State more time on the final drive.

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Also, there’s no guarantee Kamario Taylor or Luke Kromenhoek play any better. We haven’t seen enough of either to know if they’d play better.

And do you really want to put Taylor, the true freshman quarterback, behind that offensive line for more than just a handful of plays?

I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, Mississippi State has already seen what can happen when you put a true freshman quarterback in a starting role behind a shaky offensive line.

In the last two games, the Bulldogs’ defense did enough to put the team in a position to win.

They held Texas A&M to 14 points through three quarters. Against Florida, they got two interceptions and sacked DJ Lagway to force a punt with 1:41 left in the game.

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Florida’s star freshman wide receiver Dallas Wilson was targeted seven times but made just two catches, held Lagway to just a 58 completion percentage and had three TFLs.

Let’s not forget the goal line stand against Arizona State, holding the Sun Devils to a field goal so the offense can win the game on a 58-yard Brenen Thompson touchdown catch.

Verdict: Not an overreaction.

The defense isn’t elite and it’s toeing the line of being a great defense. For now, really good is great for Mississippi State.

Who would’ve believed me a year ago if I said “in a year Coleman Hutzler” is going to look like the best coach for Mississippi State?

It’s astonishing how much improved this defense is after one year. The Bulldogs were 126th nationally in total defense a year ago.

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This year, after seven games, the defense ranks 45th in total defense.

That’s just one stat, but the defense has made similar improvements in most other categories, too.

And, really, just use your eyes and you can see how much better the Bulldogs are.

Jeff Lebby is still winless in the SEC after 11 games and won’t be favored in any more games the rest of the season. So, 0-16 in SEC play in two seasons is possible.

Lebby also came to Starkville as an offensive guru and engineered some of the best offenses of the last five years, but that hasn’t shown up at Mississippi State.

Yes, the big plays are fun, but the offense has been far from great.

And the decision to throw a pass in the fourth quarter against Florida instead of kicking a field goal was a colossal mistake.

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Verdict: Massive overreaction.

This is the biggest overreaction I’ve seen this season.

Three weeks ago everyone was in love with Mississippi State and believed Lebby was doing a great job.

But now everyone is mad and thinks Lebby should be fired?

Seriously, folks, chill. That was a tough loss and it’s OK to be upset, but maybe step away from social media and the message boards?

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Lebby’s not going anywhere, nor should he. He inherited a dumpster fire of a situation, suffered through 2024’s two-win season and has shown big improvements in 2025.

Look at the running backs (when healthy), the wide receivers and the entire defense. Lebby is building a program that everyone thought was on the rise three weeks ago.

And it still is.





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Blake Shapen stats as QB has Mississippi State in position for upset before interception

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Blake Shapen stats as QB has Mississippi State in position for upset before interception


GAINESVILLE, FL — Blake Shapen’s interception sealed Mississippi State football’s 15th consecutive SEC loss.

The quarterback had driven the Bulldogs into field-goal range with a chance to stun Florida at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. They had the ball at the Gators’ 29-yard line with 26 seconds remaining, trailing by two points.

Then, Shapen was intercepted by Florida defensive lineman Michai Boirea, and MSU (4-3, 0-3 SEC) lost 23-21 on Oct. 18.

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Here’s how we graded Shapen against Florida (3-4, 2-2).

Blake Shapen stats for Mississippi State vs Florida

  • Passing attempts: 24-for-36
  • Passing yards: 324
  • Passing touchdowns: 0
  • Interceptions: 1
  • Rushing attempts: 10
  • Rushing yards: 1
  • Rushing touchdowns: 0

Blake Shapen’s best: QB had Mississippi State in position to win

Shapen wasn’t fantastic in the game. The offense didn’t find a rhythm until the fourth quarter. But Shapen still had Mississippi State in a position to win.

The Bulldogs got the ball at their own 26-yard line with 1:38 remaining, trailing 23-21. On the first play of that drive, Shapen scrambled up the middle for an 18-yard gain. He completed four of his next five pass attempts, including a 10-yard pass to running back Davon Booth on third-and-9.

Blake Shapen’s worst: Mississippi State QB threw game-losing interception

Shapen’s performance won’t be remembered for those plays, however. The interception he threw to seal the game will be the memory that lasts.

Boirea was positioned at the line of scrimmage, but the 349-pound lineman dropped into coverage after the snap. He read Shapen perfectly and intercepted the pass over the middle of the field.

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Grade: C

Shapen’s 324 yards were the most he’s thrown for in 11 games at the Mississippi State starter. However, his streak of 21 straight games with a touchdown pass was snapped.

The interception was the costly play. Mississippi State needed him to take care of the football in that situation, and he didn’t.

Sam Sklar is the Mississippi State beat reporter for The Clarion Ledger. Email him at ssklar@gannett.com and follow him on X @sklarsam_.

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