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Michigan State basketball vs. Mississippi NCAA tournament tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction

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Michigan State basketball vs. Mississippi NCAA tournament tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction


• What: No. 2-seed Michigan State vs. 6-seed Mississippi, NCAA tournament South Regional semifinal

• When: 7:09 p.m. Friday

• Where: State Farm Arena, Atlanta

TV/Radio: CBS/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 201

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• Records/Rankings: MSU is 29-6 overall after winning its first two NCAA tournament games. The Spartans finished 17-3 in the Big Ten, winning the league outright. Mississippi is 24-11 overall after its two NCAA tournament wins. The Rebels finished 10-8 in SEC play.

• Betting line: MSU -3.5

• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 735-301 in his 30th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Mississippi — Chris Beard is 280-120 in his 13th season as a head coach, including 44-23 in his second season with the Rebels. Notably, he was the coach of the Texas Tech team that beat MSU in the 2019 Final Four.

• Series: This is only the second meeting between the two programs, with MSU winning the previous game, in the second round of the 1999 NCAA tournament.

Projected lineups

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MSU

C (10) Szymon Zapala (7-0) 4.3

F (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 7.8

G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 12.7

G (11) Jase Richardson (6-3) 11.9

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PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 7.4

Mississippi

C (0) Malik Dia (6-9) 10.7

F (14) Dre Davis (6-6) 10.3

G (11) Matthew Murrell (6-4) 10.7

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G (3) Sean Pedulla (6-1) 15.2

G (5) Jaylen Murray (5-11) 10.5

• MSU update: The Spartans enter the regional semifinals after two hard-fought NCAA tournament wins, over Bryant and then New Mexico. In neither game did MSU have control until the second half. This is MSU’s 16th Sweet 16 under Tom Izzo. Only Duke has more Sweet 16 appearances since Izzo made his first 27 years ago. MSU’s last Sweet 16 was two years ago in New York, where the Spartans lost to Kansas State in overtime. MSU is No. 5 nationally in defensive efficiency, per Kenpom, and No. 1 defending the 3-point line, allowing opponents to shoot just 27.8% from long range, and No. 8 in defensive rebounding percentage. The Spartans’ bugaboo is inconsistency with outside shooting, making just 31% of their own 3-point tries, which is 323rd nationally.

MORE: Couch: Jaden Akins met the moment Sunday in leading Michigan State to the Sweet 16

• Ole Miss update: The Rebels arrive in the Sweet 16 after impressive wins over North Carolina and No. 3-seed Iowa State. They also have wins this season over Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, BYU and Arkansas (twice) — all teams still alive in the NCAA tournament. This is Ole Miss’ first NCAA tournament since 2019 and its first Sweet 16 since 2001, which is as far as the Rebels have ever gone in an NCAA tournament. Like MSU, Ole Miss has a balanced lineup, even if not as deep. All five starters average in double figures, with four of them at around 10 points per game.

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• Matchup analysis: The Rebels present some challenges for MSU — the way they switch everyone defensively, how their guards dig down to help their bigs, the way they sacrifice offensive rebounding to get back in transition, the ability of their 5 man, Malik Dia, get downhill on the drive and also hit 3-pointers. The Spartans should have a decent edge on the glass. Ole Miss ranks in the 300s in offensive rebounding percentage and isn’t that much better on the defensive end. The matchup with Dia is probably the most interesting for MSU. Is that Carson Cooper’s assignment? Can Jaxon Kohler defend him, given that Kohler’s offense could be an issue for Dia on the other end. Can the Spartans play a center on Ole Miss’ undersized 4 man, Dre Davis, and play two bigs or even try Coen Carr on Dia? Rebels’ guard Sean Pedulla is a fantastic player and a dangerous shooter. But MSU has faced guards like him and done OK. The other big question is whether MSU can generate enough offense if it’s stuck in the half-court against a defense that requires you to break guys down individually, and whether the Spartans are able to get out and run some, which would make life a lot easier. These are two teams built on toughness and connectedness, two teams that don’t deviate from their identities. It’s hard to forecast.

MORE: Couch: How Michigan State’s basketball team grew into becoming Big Ten champions

• Prediction: I think MSU’s A-game would beat Ole Miss’ A-game more often than not. But last weekend, the Rebels played closer to that level more often than MSU did. If Jase Richardson plays like the Jase Richardson we’ve seen regularly since the beginning of February and the Spartans can get at least one of their other guards to knock down some outside shots, I like MSU’s chances at figuring this out and moving on.

• Make it: MSU 70, Ole Miss 66

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MORE: Couch: Inside Jase Richardson’s road from career-threatening surgery to MSU basketball revelation

Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.



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3 Takeaways from Mizzou’s Wacky Win Over Mississippi State

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3 Takeaways from Mizzou’s Wacky Win Over Mississippi State


COLUMBIA, Mo. — Missouri’s win over Mississippi State hinged on a few explosive, and at time, ridiculous plays.

The Tigers scored on two pick sixes, benefitted from a 60-yard return on a botched snap on a field goal while Ahmad Hardy did something no Missouri player has done in the 21st century.

Here’s three takeaways from the victory for the Tigers.

Missouri running back Ahmad Hardy (29) celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the first half of a game.

Nov 15, 2025; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Missouri running back Ahmad Hardy (29) celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the first half of a game. / Cal Tobias/MissouriOnSI

If Ahmad Hardy only took carries on plays where he scored touchdowns, he still would’ve rushed for 125 yards on three carries. On touchdown carries of 72 and 43, Hardy was virtually untouched past the line of scrimmage.

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In total, Hardy rushed for 300 yards on 25 carries, the second-most yards for any Missouri player in a single game.

READ: How Ahmad Hardy Almost Scored ‘Too Quick’ for the Mizzou Defense

To little fault of his own, this didn’t end up as the Heisman-worthy season for Hardy that it looked like it could be after the first four games of the season. But this performance was a deserved feather in the cap for Hardy, plus a peek into just how far his dominance could reach next season.

Missouri wide receiver Joshua Manning (0) scores a touchdown during the first half of a game against Mississippi State

Nov 15, 2025; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Missouri wide receiver Joshua Manning (0) scores a touchdown in the first half against Mississippi State. / Cal Tobias/MissouriOnSI

On top of Hardy, the rest of Missouri’s offense was able to find explosive plays at a higher rate than it has all season long.

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Running back Jamal Roberts also had rushes of 19 and 21. Quarterback Matt Zollers also completed touchdown passes of 26, 34, along with a completion of 17 yards.

The runs were due to an impressive job from Missouri’s offensive line on blocking on the outside zone.

“I thought the O-line and tight ends obviously prevented penetration, allowed him to get to the second level,” Drinkwitz said of Hardy’s big runs.

The touchdown pass of 26 yards was arguably the best pass Zollers has made all season, connecting with true freshman Donovan Olugbode for the first points of the game.

Missouri seemed to have an over-reliance on hoping the deep pass game would get going against Texas A&M, with Zollers attempting eight passes of 20 or more yards.

Against Mississippi State, the Tigers instead connected on those deep passes more often on fewer attempts, while leaning much more on the run game.

Missouri cornerback Toriano Pride jr. (2) runs a Mississippi State fumble the other way during the first half.

Nov 15, 2025; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Missouri cornerback Toriano Pride jr. (2) runs a Mississippi State fumble the other way during the first half. / Cal Tobias/MissouriOnSI

The play distribution between the two teams in the first half was incredibly odd. Mississippi State ran 40 plays compared to 20 for Missouri. Mississippi State held the ball for 19:16 compared to 10:44 for Missouri.

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Despite this, the Tigers outgained the Bulldogs with 232 total yards compared to 134 and held a 21-10 lead at halftime.

The disparity in plays was mostly due to penalties on the Missouri defense — the unit was called for six penalties for 44 yards. All six of those resulted in automatic first downs, extending drives for the Bulldogs. Two of those were targeting calls, leading to linebacker Josiah Trotter and edge rusher Nate Johnson being ejected from the game.

The penalties weren’t the best look for the Missouri defense, though several of the calls were questionable.

But the fact that Mississippi State was still held to the low output in the half is a huge credit to the Missouri defense. 

On one drive in the second quarter, Mississippi State ran seven plays inside Missouri’s 10-yard line thanks to a targeting and facemask call on the Tigers. But Missouri’s defense held them to zero points, with the snap on a field goal attempt bouncing off the holder’s knee and being returned 60 yards by Toriano Pride Jr. 

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The first half was a weird half of football. The job the Missouri defense did to stand through the chaos was impressive.





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Hoover boys fall in basketball classic in Mississippi to snap 48-game winning streak

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Hoover boys fall in basketball classic in Mississippi to snap 48-game winning streak


Hoover High School center Jackson Sheffield, shown at the free-throw line in this file photo from Feb. 5, 2025, led the Bucs against Starkville, Miss., on Saturday, Nov. 15, 2025. The Bucs lost 59-49, snapping a 48-game winning streak.Vasha Hunt

Starkville jumped to a huge first-half lead and held off Hoover’s late rally to hand the Bucs boys basketball team its first loss in 49 games. The Mississippi squad beat Hoover 59-49 on Saturday in the Cavaliers Classic in Caledonia, Miss.

Alabama’s three-time defending state champions had not lost since Jan. 19, 2024, when Thompson beat the Bucs 65-55.

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Previewing Mississippi State at Mizzou on the ‘All Things Mizzou’ Podcast

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Previewing Mississippi State at Mizzou on the ‘All Things Mizzou’ Podcast


Missouri football has transitioned to a new, but final part of its season. With the College Football Playoff now out of their reach, the Tigers set out to what can still be another impressive season if they’re able to win out.

That starts this weekend with Missouri’s final home game of the season, hosting Mississippi State. Missouri hasn’t hosted Mississippi State since 2015.

In the latest episode of the “All Things Mizzou” podcast, Missouri football reporters Joey Van Zummeren and Michael Stamps gave their thoughts on what a 10-win season could still mean for Missouri, the looming coaching carousel, how the Tigers match up with the Bulldogs and more.

You can watch the episode via YouTube with the link below, or through Spotify, Apple Podcasts or onAmazon.

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The “All Things Mizzou” podcast is presented by MissouriOnSI. Tune in every week as reporters of various sports provide news, analysis and opinions on everything going on in the world of Mizzou athletics.

Though Beau Pribula was surprisingly listed as doubtful on Missouri’s availability report, this is expected to be the second game where the Tigers have true freshman Matt Zollers as the starting quarterback.

Zollers’ first career start in Week 11 was tough sledding for the former four-star prospect. He completed just 7 of his 22 passes for 77 yards. Missouri’s first three drives averaged four plays and 23 yards.

“It’s about getting comfortable earlier in the game and creating some easier opportunities for him to get into a rhythm,” head coach Eli Drinkwitz said in a press conference Tuesday. “We never really got him into the rhythm offensively, and so we’ve got to do a better job of creating some offensive rhythm and not putting him in situations where he feels the entire pressure.”

The game will also include Missouri’s Senior Day celebrations for 20 players — Vince Brown, Kevin Coleman, Daylen Carnell, Jalen Catalon, Stephen Hall, Bralen Henderson, Khalil Jacobs, Tommy Lock, Xavier Loyd, Chris McClellan, Henry McDermott, Logan Muckey, Triston Newson, Drey Norwood, Toriano Pride, Connor Tollison, Keagen Trost, Sterling Webb, Connor Weselman and Zion Young.

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“This group of men have worked extremely hard,” Drinkwitz said of the seniors. “Some have been here for a long time, some have been here for a short time, but all have contributed to the success of Mizzou football.”

Missouri takes on Mississippi State at 6:45 p.m. Saturday night. The game will be broadcast on the SEC Network.



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