Third and final part of the pre-Buffalo game Miami Dolphins On SI mailbag:
From AKASHA (@BeHereNowBuddha):
Would you say Minkah Fitzpatrick & Tunsil are Grier’s best draft picks from the rebuild?
Well, since the rebuild started with the 2019 season, neither Fitzpatrick nor Tunsil would apply because they were drafted in 2018 and 2016, respectively. The best draft pick since the rebuild probably was De’Von Achane in the third round in 2023 or maybe Andrew Van Ginkel in the fifth round in 2019. If we’re talking during Grier’s GM tenure, which started in 2016, I think I’d go with Xavien Howard in the second round in 2016 as his best pick.
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From vegas rosin (@VegasRosin):
My question is why do we still not know why Blake Ferguson went to IR?
First, Ferguson isn’t on IR, he’s on the Reserve/Non-Football Illness list. And we don’t know exactly what’s going on because the Dolphins don’t have to reveal the nature of the issue and the team’s M.O. has been to not divulge information it doesn’t have to. For example, there was no clarity on what kept OBJ out for the start of the regular season until way after the fact. I can tell you that Ferguson was diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes at the age of 13, but I do not know whether that’s part of the issue right now.
From Jake McVay (@JakeMc945):
Hey Alain, the fan base is hoping for an upset, I love the Dolphins, but I honestly see a 30-point blowout, with Allen sitting out the 4th quarter. How can they stay competitive in this game, really? I see another unhappy Sunday and a selloff of players Monday.
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Hey Jake, a 30-point blowout absolutely would be disheartening, but I don’t see it happening. The offense was pretty good overall last week against Arizona and that was in Tua’s first game back, so it should be even better and help the team stay in the game.
From Roger Dodger (@RogerDolfan):
I know Houston was missing a few its top WR but did the Jets look a lot better in Thursday night game or was that just my wild imagination?
Hey Roger, yes, the Jets looked better, but it wasn’t very high bar to clear.
From The Thrill (@PhinPhil):
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Is the defense going to sh*t down their legs again? Why is it we can’t cover WRs tightly like everyone else at least tries to do.
The Dolphins actually had been very good in coverage all season until last week. Even after the tough outing against Arizona, they’re fifth in the NFL in pass defense — and this is without any semblance of a pass rush. So, yeah, the Dolphins actually can cover.
From Mark Lever (@MarkFinsfan):
It seems that we have the most success against Buffalo running the ball. Is this a game that you could see Jaylen Wright breaking out?
Hey Mark, I wouldn’t count on it, not because of Wright but because it’s Achane who is now the workhorse at running back and Raheem Mostert also is going to get his touches. It just don’t know how many carries Wright will get.
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From Pajake Japat (@D1nonlyJP):
Anything you could say to give me hope Dolphins have a chance against Buffalo?
The offense was good against Arizona except for the snapping issues and could have success against Buffalo if it can avoid turnovers.
From gaznay (@gaznay):
Are Tua’s midweek remarks about fans eating chips on the sofa an indication he is feeling the pressure? He was pretty good in the comeback, but his comments were strange. Accidents happen but multiple snap errors in pro teams should not. The queries were valid.
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That’s a good question. Truth is it was the second consecutive week where Tua got a little snippy because it happened also when he was asked concussion questions when he returned. I don’t know if it’s an issue of feeling pressure, but I would say it’s not a very good look.
From Don (via email);
Big fan, go back to the Dolphin Digest days. The Tua contract has a feature that none of the other big QB contracts signed this year have, that I’m aware of, with the fact that $54M for 2026 does not guarantee until March 2025 if he’s still on the roster. The Dolphins very conspicuously gave themselves an out, presumably due to the injury history. The discussions I hear on the podcast always seem to be that the Dolphins are committed to Tua for multiple years, but they really are not. There is not one other NFL team in my opinion that would allow $54M to guarantee for 2026 before a snap is played in 2025, with his injury history, but these are the Dolphins though. The fact they included it in the contract gives them leverage, and if there is a new GM calling the shots before March next year I think it’s likely that some change is made or Tua is cut. Would be interested to hear your thoughts at some point on the podcast. Quick comment also, from Tua this year: Show me the money, the offensive line in front of him doesn’t matter, the defense didn’t get us the ball back (after the offense failed to run clock against AZ), and now fans and potato chips. Not a leader, and I’ll bet some of his teammates are noticing. Anyway, thanks for what you do! Love the show.
Hey Don, I’ll address this here and tell you the one issue you forgot is that by Tua’s contract is fully guaranteed for 2025, so do we really expect the Dolphins to move on next March to avoid the guarantee of 2026 when doing so would result in a massive cap hit next season? The answer from where I sit is no. That’s why, as Spotrac suggested, the real first offseason where the Dolphins realistically could move on is 2027, not 2026 and certainly not next offseason.
From Thomas Hudson (via email):
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Hi Alain, as always, thank you for the work you do. I guess as far as questions go, mine to you would be this: Do you think part of the problem the Dolphins have had the last couple seasons has simply been too much inexperience on the parts of Grier, McDaniel, and Tua? And is there hope that they will actually learn from their mistakes? I have tried to stay pretty positive about it, but if McDaniel and Tua can’t figure out how to work OBJ and Washington into the offense, if the team keeps looking like the more unprepared team every week, or Tua lowers his head and tries to run over another safety, I might start doubting that optimism.
Hey Thomas, as politely and succinctly as I can put this, nope. Grier has been GM since 2016 (really with personnel authority since 2019), Tua has been in the NFL since 2020 and McDaniel has been a head coach since 2022 after being a coordinator. That is not applicable. And where was the inexperience an issue when the Dolphins made the playoffs the past two seasons. Sorry, not on board with this. Is there hope that things can turn around? Sure. There’s always hope. But the Dolphins are quickly running out of time to make something of this 2024 season.
Dec 28, 2024; Orlando, FL, USA; Iowa State Cyclones defensive lineman J.R. Singleton (58) and wide receiver Jaylin Noel (13) celebrate with the trophy after defeating the Miami Hurricanes at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images
ORLANDO, Fla. — Iowa State’s defense forced Miami to punt just once in Saturday’s Pop-Tarts Bowl at Camping World Stadium.
But it came at the perfect time — the one, final time the No. 18 Cyclones could furiously complete their 42-41 comeback win over the 13th-ranked Hurricanes.
“I was never nervous about (the offense) scoring,” said senior captain and defensive tackle J.R. Singleton, who watched his quarterback Rocco Becht lead ISU on a last-minute outcome-sealing drive that helped met him Pop-Tarts Bowl MVP honors. “They’d been moving the ball all day, right? It was just about us getting stops. And it was really weird. We were just off in a couple places, like we were getting them in third and longs, and then couldn’t get them off there field.”
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Until 6:34 remained. And it’s not like the Cyclones’ defense — which allowed 308 rushing yards and 524 total yards — didn’t get off the field in other more opportunistic ways. ISU recovered a fumble on Miami’s first snap from scrimmage, collected another one as the Hurricanes were driving in the third quarter, then cemented the win in recently-returned, and formerly-injured safety Drew Surges’ interception on the final play of the game.
That’s three takeaways to zero giveaways, and that’s the biggest reason the Cyclones (11-3) escaped Camping World Stadium with a win for the first time in three tries.
“This is about team, and getting everybody to believe in something bigger than yourself,” said ISU head coach Matt Campbell, who improved to 3-4 in bowl games in his successful nine-season tenure. “It’s one of the great rewards and we are fortunate to be able to do it here at Iowa State.”
Campbell called Singleton the Cyclones’ “spiritual leader” at the team’s pep rally on Friday and Singleton continued to serve in that role as ISU slowly strengthened defensively as the game wore on. Miami (10-3) racked up 358 of its 524 yards in the first half, and managed to gain just 55 yards in the fourth quarter.
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The Cyclones won 11 games for the first time in program history — extending the previous record streak by one. ISU had won nine games twice, and once under Campbell, and made reaching historic milestones a theme throughout a season that surpassed all the others.
“I don’t think there’s anything I could say to describe it,” Singleton said of attaining 11 wins. “It’s been 133 years. We made history.. Obviously, we were pushing to get into that (College Football Playoff), but you aim for the moon, and land on the stars. And it’s not bad being on the stars.”
So the Cyclones’ moon shot ending up pushing them light years ahead. None of it came easy, but what would be the fun in that?
“It’s been a really unique journey here,” said Campbell, whose team went 3-9 in his first season at ISU. “I’ve said this before with so many people — when we took the job and we came to Iowa State, I think they said, man, you’re going to the coaching graveyard.”
And look at them now: Toting off a Pop-Tarts Bowl trophy that has a working toaster attached.
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“I had a bunch of my friends here for the first time to see me play,” said Becht, who grew up in Florida and was named the Pop-Tarts Bowl MVP. “It was special for me to get this win.”
CARSON CRUISES
ISU tailback Carson Hansen rushed for two touchdowns and also scored via the air. His 30-yard touchdown run in the first quarter was the longest by a Cyclones in a bowl game. Hansen ended the season with 15 touchdowns (13 rushing, two receiving).
“I love this team,” the sophomore from Lakeville, Minn., said. “Getting 11 wins is just something you’ll never forget.”
ETC.
Iowa State finished as one of 17 FBS teams to not allow 300 yards passing in a single game this season. They gave up 216 yards via the air against the Hurricanes. … Campbell is not just the Cyclones’ winningest head coach in program history — he’s also won the most bowl games (three). He passed Dan McCarney in both areas, and the former ISU head coach attended Saturday’s game. … The Cyclones went 3-for-4 on fourth down conversions to finish the season 20 of 25 in such situations. That ranks second-best among FBS teams.
Miami quarterback Cam Ward didn’t take the field for the second half of Saturday’s Pop-Tarts Bowl in Orlando, but Hurricane fans shouldn’t be worried.
Miami backup quarterback Emory Williams started for the team to open the third quarter and immediately led the Hurricanes on a touchdown drive.
Hurricanes team reporter Christy Chirinos shared that Ward had a big smile on his face as the team scored the touchdown, which likely indicates he’s out of the game as a precaution for his 2025 NFL Draft preparations. In For The Win’s latest mock draft, we have Ward as the No. 2 overall pick.
Ward threw his 156th touchdown pass during the game, which gave him the NCAA Division I record for touchdowns thrown in a college career.
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With the record in the books, Ward and the team perhaps decided it wasn’t worth the injury risk in the second half. He could be the first player off the board in the 2025 NFL Draft next spring.
However, it’s always possible he rejoins the game before it ends.
The Miami Dolphins will look to get back to .500 for the first time since September when they face the Cleveland Browns at Huntington Bank Field on Sunday in a game that might or might not have playoff implications.
Here’s all the pertinent info for this Week 17 Dolphins-Browns matchup.
Additional content: — Is the end near for big-name Dolphins? — Rain, not cold, could be challenge in Cleveland — What the Christmas results mean for the Dolphins
Regular Season Series History: Dolphins lead 10-9
Last Five Meetings:
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November 13, 2022 at Miami — Dolphins 39, Browns 17
November 24, 2019 at Cleveland — Browns 41, Dolphins 24
September 25, 2016 at Miami — Dolphins 30, Browns 24 (OT)
September 8, 2013 at Cleveland — Dolphins 23, Browns 10
September 25, 2011 at Cleveland — Browns 17, Dolphins 16
Series Superlatives:
Connections:
Heading into Week 17, it appeared likely the Dolphins would miss the playoffs after being in the postseason last year and the other AFC team in that position is the Browns. Yes, the Browns made the playoffs in 2023, even though that seems crazy considering how bad their 2024 season has gone. While the defense certainly hasn’t been great, it’s the Cleveland offense that’s most to blame for the collapse, and pointing the finger at QB Deshaun Watson probably wouldn’t be out of line since the Browns made their playoff run while he was on IR last season and Joe Flacco was running the offense. Cleveland was so bad on offense with Watson, it didn’t reach 300 total yards in any game until Week 7. Maybe the weirdest part about the Cleveland season is that two of its three victories have come against playoff-bound Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
Cleveland is down to its third quarterback with Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who still needs to show he can more than a third option for a team. The Browns won’t have Nick Chubb, who’s on IR, or injured tight end David Njoku in this game and scored 13 points in their past two games combined. The Dolphins defense has been good in recent weeks and it’s easy to envision it completely shutting down the Browns in this game.
The biggest X-factor in this game is whether the Dolphins will have anything at stake in terms of playoff ramifications. If they have been eliminated because the Chargers and Broncos both won Saturday, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Dolphins come out flat even if they want to finish the season with a winning record regardless. The elements also could be an issue, particularly if it becomes rainy and windy, and a wet ball on a wet field always can be a great equalizer.
This will be the Dolphins’ fourth and final shot at getting back to .500 this season for the first time since September and they can keep alive their streak of consecutive seasons with a winning record by defeating the Browns before turning their attention to the New York Jets in Week 18. Cleveland will play hard in this game, but injuries have left them talent-deficient on offense. The Browns committted 18 turnovers in their past five games and we can see at least a couple more in this one. This is the kind of game the Dolphins have managed very well over the past couple of years, and there’s no reason to think this will be different, regardless of weather or playoff scenarios.
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