Louisiana
More Bad News: 2005 vs 2024 Hurricane Seasons in Pictures
Lafayette, LA (KPEL News) – The majority of Louisiana residents, and even Americans, remember the hurricane season of 2005. A record 27 named storms formed that year, and 7 of them made landfall. The two hurricanes the jump to the minds of Louisiana residents are Katrina and Rita. That year, all the conditions were ripe for such an active season, and all those ingredients being mixed together just right proved disastrous.
Warm water fuels hurricanes. The warmer the water and the deeper it runs, the more gas there is to fuel the engine. Add low wind sheer to that recipe, and those tropical cyclones grow strong and big. Right now, the water in the Atlantic Basin and especially in the Gulf of Mexico are warmer going into hurricane season 2024 than they were in 2005. A La Nina pattern typically provides less wind sheer. That’s really bad news for Louisiana and Texas.
Katrina made landfall near the Louisiana/Mississippi line in August of 2005 with the third lowest pressure on record for a landfalling hurricane. The storm devastated New Orleans not only because of its strength, but also because the levees protecting the city broke and caused catastrophic flooding.
Rita came onshore on the Louisiana/Texas border between Sabine Pass and Johnson’s Bayou, decimating the coastal areas of Cameron Parish and causing devastation to communities further north and east. While Rita doesn’t get the recognition that Katrina does, it’s central pressure dropped 5 millibars lower than its predecessor. Most homes and businesses in Cameron Parish were completely washed away by storm surge and winds.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) is predicting its most severe season to date for 2024, and they have made that prediction based on the forecast factors that drive hurricane formation: water temperature and wind sheer.
A side by side view, developed by Yale Climate Connections, of the conditions that existed in 2005 and the conditions they are looking at for the current forecast is frightening.
Yale Climate Connections
They explain, in their writeup about hurricane season, why warm water in this particular area is concerning.
Although record-setting sea surface temperatures alone don’t guarantee a busy hurricane season, they do strongly influence it, especially when the abnormal warmth coincides with the tropical belt known as the Main Development Region, or MDR, the area where 85% of Category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes form. When considered alongside a developing La Niña — the periodic cooling of the equatorial Pacific that reduces storm-busting Atlantic wind shear — the unprecedented ocean heat is driving up seasonal hurricane outlooks higher than ever before.
The data certainly backs up NOAA’s prediction for 17 to 25 total named storms (storms with winds of 39 mph or higher), 8 to 13 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), and 4 to 7 of those will become major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).
Read More: NOAA Releases ‘Severe’ 2024 Hurricane Season Forecast for LA, TX
Preparation and planning is key. No one has a crystal ball or knows if Louisiana or Texas will take a hit this year. Those of us who have lived through storms over the last few decades understand that it only takes one to make it a bad season.
2024 Hurricane Names
LIST: 10 Deadliest Louisiana Hurricanes
Gallery Credit: Rob Kirkpatrick
Louisiana
Louisiana’s disappearing coast could shape Baton Rouge’s future
BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) – South Louisiana’s coast has long served as a natural buffer between communities and rising water.
But since the 1930s, Louisiana has lost nearly 2,000 square miles of coastal land.
Dr. Torbjorn Tornqvist, a professor at Tulane University, said Louisiana is one of the most vulnerable coastal areas in the world because of climate change, sea level rise and subsidence.
“Louisiana is arguably one of the most vulnerable… perhaps the most vulnerable coastal zones in the world when it comes to climate change and sea level rise… and there are several reasons for that but one important reason is that we have high subsidence rates, and that means sea level rise here is a lot faster than the average around the world,” Tornqvist said.
Tornqvist is the lead author of a recently published study examining the long-term impacts of sea level rise across south Louisiana.
He said the issue is no longer limited to communities closest to the Gulf Coast.
“People are leaving the coast of Louisiana, but it’s going to accelerate over the course of the century. And those people are going to have to go somewhere, and it’s likely that a significant number are going to look at a place like Baton Rouge to move to,” Tornqvist said.
Since Hurricane Katrina, Louisiana has invested billions of dollars in large-scale restoration projects designed to reduce flood risk and strengthen the coast.
Some researchers believe those projects are important but not permanent fixes.
“We have…right now we have a pretty high-quality flood protection system that’s obviously way better than it was during Katrina and we should certainly keep investing in upkeep, but we also have to recognize that’s only going to take us so far,” Tornqvist said.
State officials say those investments remain critical as Louisiana adapts to future flood risks.
Micheal Hare, executive director of the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority, said the state’s coastal plan is designed to balance restoration work with protection projects, including levees.
“Our 2023 master plan certainly incorporates the best science available to us to then come up with a balanced approach between how do we effectively spend money on restoration as well as money on protection projects like levees,” Hare said.
Hare said those projects will continue to evolve as future risks change. CPRA and the Army Corps of Engineers are re-evaluating portions of the West Bank and Vicinity levee system in New Orleans to meet projected future flood risks within the next half-decade.
“Morganza to the Gulf is a great example, location communities came together, they started funding it…so that protection is critical…It will constantly be maintained and constantly elevated to meet the new levels of threats and risks that are out there,” Hare said.
Coastal officials and researchers agree that what happens along Louisiana’s coast will continue to affect communities far beyond the shoreline for generations.
“And so maybe you don’t live behind the levee, but I promise you want those coastal communities to stay there and to keep working, and to stay productive and engaged…so that we don’t have to have these flood fights further north or lose parts of our economy,” Hare said.
Tornqvist said the decisions made now could shape the future of Louisiana communities.
“What’s really important to recognize is that the next few decades are basically going to decide the long-term future of cities like Baton Rouge,” Tornqvist said.
Louisiana has always lived with water. As the coast changes and sea levels rise, the challenge is how communities across south Louisiana continue adapting for generations to come.
From the Gulf Coast to Baton Rouge, the future of Louisiana’s coastline is a conversation that impacts the entire state.
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Louisiana
Louisiana is the eighth most affordable state to retire, study says
Louisiana ranks among the top 10 most affordable states to retire, according to a new study from Retirement Living, a national journal of retirement research.
Researchers analyzed each state’s housing costs, living expenses and tax friendliness to compile the ranking. Louisiana, they say, is the eighth most affordable state for retirees.
In Louisiana, the median monthly rent for a one-bedroom apartment is $932, the median home sale price is $255,000, monthly grocery spend per capita is $272, the average price per gallon of regular gas is $4, the average Medicare Advantage monthly premium is $13.35 and the average effective property tax rate is 0.55%.
West Virginia is the most affordable state to retire, followed by Mississippi, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Louisiana, Indiana and Kansas. Researchers describe the South as “the sweet spot for an affordable retirement.”
The most expensive state to retire, meanwhile, is California, followed by Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Utah, New York and Minnesota.
Read Retirement Living’s full report here.
Louisiana
Louisiana agencies urge hurricane preparation ahead of season start
BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) – With hurricane season approaching, the Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority is bringing the community together to prepare before a storm forms.
“We can’t stop disasters from happening. We can’t stop hurricanes from happening. But what we can do is equip our communities with the resources that they need to prepare for these storms ahead of time,” said Jayda Morris, CPRA outreach manager.
The agency hosted an event featuring interactive storm simulations and a full model of the Mississippi River.
“If you do it now, like on a sunny day like today, you’re ready to go for the rest of the season,” Jay Grymes said.
El Niño may reduce storms, but Louisiana still at risk
State Climatologist Jay Grymes said an El Niño pattern may reduce the number of storms in the Atlantic but warned against a false sense of security.
“In those 25 years, Louisiana, some part of the state has been impacted by 29 storms. That’s one a year, regardless of El Niño. So that should tell you something,” Grymes said.
He said the bigger concern is storms that can form in the Gulf with little warning.
“If we’re going to get a storm, it very possibly could be one that bubbles up in the Gulf and doesn’t give us five or seven days to track it coming our way. It gives us 40 hours to get ready for a landfall. So it’s imperative that you go ahead and do it now,” Grymes said.
Preparation goes beyond stocking water
Preparing now includes walking through yards, checking trees, and knowing whether everyone in the family can survive two weeks without power.
PhD students with the LSU College of the Coast and Environment gave the community a virtual reality experience that puts users inside a storm.
“If they wear the goggles or play with the Apple Vision Pro, they can understand how high will the flood be, and they can know how dangerous is the hurricane scenario,” said Yixuan Wang.
The VR simulation uses real historical data to show users what compound flooding looks like in New Orleans and surrounding areas. The goal is to make the science real for people who can’t picture what a flood map means.
“It’s just to let you understand the environment. We will add the audios, the different sound of the wind and the storm. And you can see how tense of the rainfall around you,” Wang said.
Organizers said the event is about making sure that when a storm threatens the area, families already know their plan.
Information from the event is available on CPRA’s website. Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.
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