Midwest
Ohio special election result could signal Democrat edge with key voter group: election expert
Tuesday’s special election in Ohio to fill a vacant U.S. House seat showed off a Democratic advantage in high-engagement voters, with the district swinging roughly 20 points in Democrats’ favor, compared to previous elections.
While Republican state Sen. Michael Rulli defeated his Democratic opponent Michael Kripchak by just under 10 points in the special election for Ohio’s 6th Congressional District, it was a disappointing margin in a district that had been won by outgoing Rep. Bill Johnson, R-Ohio., by more than 30 points just two years ago.
“It looks like state Sen. Michael Rulli (R) is on track for a significant underperformance in tonight’s #OH06 special election,” Cook Political Report senior editor Dave Wasserman said on X as the results rolled in, noting that former President Trump had carried the same district by 29 points in 2020.
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President Biden and former President Trump (Getty Images)
The result could be seen as a confusing one for many political observers, with Ohio as a state trending more towards Republicans in recent elections, and the 6th Congressional District having been a safe haven for the GOP for over a decade.
But the result highlights a growing problem for Republicans nationally ahead of this year’s general election, Wasserman notes, pointing out that Democrats have a growing enthusiasm edge as November approaches.
“Turnout in #OH06 looks abysmal, and as we’ve seen in tons of specials/polls, Dems have a growing advantage w/ the highest-engagement voters,” Wasserman said on X.
Ohio state Sen. Michael Rulli (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
Wasserman’s comments come on the heels of Cook Political Report’s “swing state polling project” conducted last month, which looked into the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and divided voters into three groups.
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The first group, whom the report called “high-engagement” voters, features those who “voted in all four of the past four federal elections or voted in the 2022 midterms if they registered after 2020.” The middle tier features voters whom the report called “low/mid-engagement” voters, or those who “skipped at least one of the past four federal elections.” The last group contained new registrants since 2020, which can include those that moved between states.
The report found a growing “participation gap” in presidential preferences, with President Biden holding a four point edge among “high engagement” voters, or those most likely to vote on election day. Trump, meanwhile, held a 10 point lead among “low-mid engagement” voters and newly registered voters.
Such a gap could play a role in tightly contested swing states, with “high-engagement voters” representing the majority of the electorate.
President Biden speaks at a campaign event at Pullman Yards on March 9, 2024, in Atlanta. (Megan Varner/Getty Images)
Ohio, which has traditionally been a swing state but was won comfortably by Trump in the last two elections, looks once again to be trending toward Trump in November. According to the latest Real Clear Politics Polling Average, the former president holds a 10-point lead on Biden in the state.
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Nebraska
Shawn Eichorst’s Nebraska tenure shows his Badgers return is disastrous for Luke Fickell
While Nebraska football fans mostly laughed at Wisconsin hiring Shawn Eichorst as their new AD, Badgers fans seem to be quite happy with the move. However, if the new athletic director’s tenure in Wisconsin echoes at least his early run in Lincoln, then Luke Fickell should know that he’s about to be shown the door, no matter what the 2026 season looks like.
One of the first things Eichorst did when he took over the program at NU was boot then-Husker head coach Bo Pelini. He did that despite the fact that Pelini was winning 9 or 10 games a season and was putting together campaigns better than any that have come since his firing.
The former Nebraska AD fired Pelini after he led his team to an emotional win over the Iowa Hawkeyes, with most of the coaches and players celebrating and seemingly poised to carry the momentum into bowl season and then the 2015 season. Eichorst had other ideas, essentially saying that beating the Hawkeyes simply wasn’t that impressive.
“In the final analysis,” he said at the time, “I had to evaluate where Iowa was.”
Shawn Eichorst’s Nebraska football tenure should worry Luke Fickell
Those words have stung Nebraska plenty since he uttered them, since Kirk Ferentz’s program has been inarguably better than the Huskers under Mike Riley, Scott Frost and Matt Rhule.
Certainly, Wisconsin fans should take that as a cautionary tale, not just because the AD overestimated where the Nebraska program would go, but also because he wasn’t very good at analyzing how to get them where he wanted them. But it’s even more a cautionary tale for Badgers’ head coach Luke Fickell.
Shawn Eichorst was essentially brought in as a clean-sweep artist in football. When he was hired, it’s clear that Pelini’s career in Lincoln was about to come to an end, unless he took the Cornhuskers on a miracle run.
The 37-34 overtime win over Iowa meant that the Huskers once again went 9-3. Two of the three losses were by five points or less. The only blowout loss of Pelini’s final season was to Wisconsin, 59-24. And yet, he was canned just two days after he finished another objectively successful season.
If Eichorst was willing (and some would say eager) to fire Pelini in that situation, is there any doubt he’s exactly as willing (and eager) to fire Luke Fickell after the 2026 season, unless he has a miracle run?
Fickell hasn’t been nearly as successful at Wisconsin as Pelini was at Nebraska. Back-to-back losing seasons put him at 17-21 in his career. He’d have to go on a 50-6 run to equal Pelini’s time in Lincoln.
Of course, it’s possible that Wisconsin fans are salivating at the idea of their new AD firing their rather mediocre head coach. The company line is they like that a former lieutenant to the longtime athletic director under Barry Alvarez is back and ready to bring the program back to glory days.
But is part of that march back to glory days expected to include a new head coach for the 2027 season? Put it this way, it wouldn’t be out of line for Luke Fickell to start putting out feelers to G6 programs this fall in case he has to update his resume quickly come December.
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North Dakota
Wrestling: Yates, Raper excel in North Dakota – Salisbury Post
Wrestling: Yates, Raper excel in North Dakota
Published 2:07 am Monday, July 13, 2026
Carson Raper. Rhett Hoy photo.
Staff report
FARGO, N.D. – Carson Raper, a rising sophomore at South Rowan, and Braylen Yates, a rising sophomore at East Rowan, did very well on a national stage in the 16U Junior Nationals held over the weekend in the Fargodome.
Yates wrestled at 175, while Raper wrestled at 113.
Yates finished fourth (out of a field of 128 wrestlers) to earn All-America honors.
Yates dominated his first three matches before winning a close quarterfinal. He lost a 4-0 decision to a Minnesota wrestler in the semifinals and a 6-2 decision to an Illinois wrestler in the third-place match.
Raper won his first two matches by technical fall before losing to a Missouri wrestler in the Round of 32.
Raper bounced back in the consolation bracket to win two more matches. He lost a 12-10 decision to a Florida wrestler to end his run in the tournament. Raper was the youngest in his weight class.
Raper won a 4A NCHSAA championship last winter, while Yates was a state runner-up in 5A.
They have big futures.
Ohio
Can Ohio State Survive Its Own Schedule? Inside the Buckeyes’ 2026 Playoff Math
Ohio State enters the 2026 season as the reigning national champion’s chief rival for preseason hype — ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s initial Football Power Index and the trendy pick in several outlets’ way-too-early bracket projections. But before any of that matters, the Buckeyes have to get through a schedule that their own athletic department has openly called one of the toughest in the country. The question worth asking isn’t whether Ohio State is talented enough to win a title. It’s whether this slate is rugged enough that even a very good Buckeyes team could stumble to 9-3 — and if it does, whether that’s still good enough for the College Football Playoff.
By the school’s own count, nine of the Buckeyes’ 12 regular-season opponents either reached the CFP or played in a bowl game in 2025, and seven of them won at least nine games that season. Add up the 2025 records of Ohio State’s nine Big Ten opponents and you get a combined winning percentage north of .600 — a brutal number for a conference slate.
A few things stand out immediately:
Five true road games, including trips to two teams that made the 2025 CFP semifinals. The season opens with a Week 2 rematch at Texas, closing out the home-and-home series after Ohio State’s narrow 14-7 win in Columbus last year, followed later by a trip to Indiana on October 17th, the reigning national champion, and a first visit to USC since 2008 on October 31st. The Buckeyes will also make their first trip to Iowa’s Kinnick Stadium since 2017. Road trips to Texas, Iowa, Indiana, USC and Nebraska leave almost no margin for error away from the Horseshoe.
A CFP semifinalist at home, too. Oregon comes to Columbus on November 7th. Only two Big Ten teams have posted winning records against Ohio State this decade — Michigan and Oregon — and the Buckeyes will host both within the final four weeks of the regular season.
The Michigan game closes the regular season again, on Nov. 28, with a trip to Indiana and a home date with Oregon both looming in the weeks before it. A closing stretch of Indiana (road), Oregon (home) and Michigan (home), separated only by Northwestern and Nebraska, is about as demanding a finish as any team in the country will face.
Why 9-3 Is a Real Possibility, Not a Doomsday Scenario
Ohio State’s roster is loaded. Quarterback Julian Sayin returns after a Heisman-finalist redshirt freshman campaign, and Jeremiah Smith — already the most productive receiver in program history through two seasons — is back for one more year in Columbus. Ohio State ranks among the national leaders in returning offensive production, bringing back roughly seven in ten snaps’ worth of output from a year ago.
But the defense that carried Ohio State to the 2024 national title and a Big Ten title game appearance in 2025 was gutted by the NFL Draft. The Buckeyes had four players go in the first 11 picks of the 2026 draft, three of them defenders — receiver Carnell Tate plus linebackers Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles, and safety Caleb Downs. As a result, the defense returns only about half of last season’s production, a figure that ranks in the bottom third nationally. That’s a real question mark heading into a schedule with almost no easy weeks after October.
There’s also a late-season track record worth noting. Through 12 games in 2025, Ohio State looked nearly unbeatable, winning everything but the Texas opener by an average score of roughly 39-8. But when it came time to close, the offense stalled — the Buckeyes managed a combined 24 points in losses to Indiana in the Big Ten title game and Miami in the CFP quarterfinals, both defeats built around an overly conservative approach late in games. If a similarly cautious style resurfaces against this year’s closing gauntlet of Indiana, Oregon and Michigan, three losses in that stretch alone isn’t far-fetched.
Put it together — a true road loss at Texas, Indiana or USC, a slip-up somewhere in the Oregon-Michigan stretch, maybe an upset bid from Iowa or Nebraska — and 9-3 isn’t a pessimistic outcome. It’s a very plausible one for a team replacing this much defensive production while playing this schedule.
So Would 9-3 Be Enough for the Playoff?
Here’s where the format matters as much as the record. The CFP is staying at 12 teams in 2026, but the automatic-qualifier rules changed after realignment talks between the Big Ten and SEC broke down without a deal on expansion. Each Power Four conference champion — from the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC — is now guaranteed a spot regardless of final ranking. The highest-ranked Group of Six team also earns an automatic bid, and Notre Dame can qualify as an independent if it finishes in the top 12. Everyone else fills out the field as at-large selections, seeded purely by the committee’s final rankings, with only the top four teams overall earning first-round byes.
That structure gives a 9-3 Ohio State two realistic paths in:
Path 1: Win the Big Ten. If the Buckeyes go 9-3 but that includes a Big Ten Championship Game win, they’re in automatically — no ranking required, no committee debate. Given the schedule, a 9-3 team that beats Indiana, Oregon and/or Michigan somewhere along the way to Lucas Oil Stadium and wins there would carry more than enough quality wins to make that plausible.
Path 2: An at-large bid on the strength of schedule. If Ohio State doesn’t reach the title game, a 9-3 at-large case becomes a resume argument — and here the Buckeyes’ brutal slate actually works in their favor. A 9-3 record built on wins over the likes of Texas, Indiana, USC, Oregon or Michigan, with all three losses coming against genuinely strong opponents, is a very different case than a 9-3 team that padded its record against a soft schedule and lost to mediocre teams. The selection committee has rewarded strength of schedule and a “best three losses” argument over a cleaner record built on a weaker slate; in 2025, an 8-5 Duke team with no marquee wins was left out entirely, while 10-3 Alabama got in on the strength of who they played and beat.
The math gets tighter, though, if other Big Ten contenders also finish with strong resumes. Analysts already project this could be a three-bid year for the conference, with Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana viewed as the league’s strongest playoff bets and several others given outside chances. If Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State all finish somewhere in the 9-3 to 11-1 range, seeding — and head-to-head results — will matter enormously. An Ohio State team that lost directly to one of its direct competitors could find itself squeezed out if the at-large math gets crowded near the bottom of the field.
The Bottom Line
Ohio State’s 2026 schedule is genuinely one of the hardest in the country — five true road games, two CFP semifinalists on the slate, and a closing stretch of Indiana-Oregon-Michigan that would stress-test any roster, let alone one replacing three defensive first-round picks. A 9-3 finish wouldn’t reflect a team underachieving; it would reflect a team that played one of the nation’s toughest schedules and lost a few close ones to elite competition.
Under the current 12-team format, that record should still be good enough for the Playoff in most realistic scenarios — either by winning the Big Ten outright, which comes with an automatic bid regardless of ranking, or by leaning on strength of schedule to win the at-large argument. The one situation where it gets dicey is if Ohio State’s three losses include head-to-head defeats to the same Big Ten teams — Indiana, Oregon — it’s competing against for playoff positioning, and the conference ends up sending three or four teams that all finish with similar records. In that crowded scenario, being 9-3 with the wrong losses could matter more than being 9-3 at all.
For a program that’s made the field in three of the first three years of the expanded Playoff, the safer bet is still that 9-3 gets Ohio State in. But this schedule means the Buckeyes will have to earn every bit of that resume.
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