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Another hurricane season arrives. Will Louisiana again be spared?

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Another hurricane season arrives. Will Louisiana again be spared?


Another hurricane season arrives on Thursday, and forecasts are being rolled out with insightful analysis of weather patterns in the months ahead. But here’s the bottom line for Louisianans who’ve seen too much destruction: Nobody really knows anything.

At least nothing definitive. There are certainly indicators that provide a reasonable basis for seasonal forecasts, ranging from El Nino to warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures, pointing to an average or slightly below average number of storms. Technological improvements are also allowing for better warning systems when hurricanes do form.

But no matter the forecasts, Louisiana’s coast is always at risk of being hit by a strong hurricane. And as everyone from the nation’s foremost weather experts to your neighbor down the street will tell you, it only takes one.

That’s why Louisiana officials are working to get the word out now that preparations are in order. Plot out an evacuation route that takes you north and don’t expect to rely on contraflow. Review your insurance coverage. Know how you’re going to care for elderly or sick relatives.

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New Orleans’ new $14.6 billion levee and floodwall system is a vast improvement over pre-Katrina defenses, but it will not protect against all storms. The Army Corps of Engineers has in the meantime been investigating pump corrosion in a key part of that system, but it has made contingency plans and says it will have more than enough capacity in place to pump out rainfall.

This season, which runs through Nov. 30, is also arriving as families continue to recover from the brutal years of 2020 and 2021 – a span that saw two of the most powerful storms to ever make landfall in the state in Hurricanes Laura and Ida, both Category 4 monsters with 150 mph winds. Laura ripped through southwest Louisiana in 2020 and Ida leveled parts of the southeast in 2021.

Hurricanes Delta, a Category 2, and Zeta, a Category 1, also hit during that timeframe. Last year was mercifully quiet for Louisiana, but residents need only to look east to where many spend their summer vacations for reminders. Hurricane Ian plowed into southwestern Florida as a Category 4, left behind around $112 billion in damage and killed more than 150 people, directly or indirectly.

Ian was the third-costliest U.S. storm on record, trailing Hurricane Harvey at No. 2 and Katrina as the costliest ever at $193 billion, adjusted for inflation. Ida is sixth at $81 billion.

“There’s a tremendous amount of recovery ongoing, and communities may be more vulnerable or have challenges relative to that recovery that puts them in a posture to make it even more important that we do our very best to be prepared,” said Casey Tingle, director of the Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness.

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“And certainly we know that that’s true for families across the state that may still be struggling with insurance or other things on the recovery side and having to deal with a blue roof perhaps, or living in a travel trailer or mobile home.”






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A humorous sign on the marquee of the Lake Pontchartrain Causeway in anticipation of Hurricane Ida in Metairie, Friday, Aug. 27, 2021. (Staff photo by David Grunfeld, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune | The New Orleans Advocate)




A rare and average year?

Forecasts this year have taken into account some important changes in weather patterns. For the past few years, a La Nina pattern has been in place, and that has contributed to extremely active storm seasons. La Nina has now ended and El Nino is expected to be in place this year.

Their effects on hurricane season have mainly to do with wind shear. La Nina leads to less wind shear in the Atlantic, which is favorable to hurricane formation.

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El Nino does the opposite. It leads to more wind shear in the Atlantic, and that essentially chops across storms and can prevent hurricanes from forming. Still, there are no guarantees, and strong hurricanes do form in El Nino years.

Take Hurricane Betsy in 1965, which many New Orleanians will remember – or at least have heard stories about. That storm occurred in an El Nino year.

Balancing out El Nino in forecasts this year are other factors, including warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean, which can help feed storms. As NOAA scientists explained last week, those warm temperatures are due partly to a long-term weather cycle known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, which usually lasts between 20-40 years.

A warm pattern that began in 1995 is continuing, while temperatures in general are also gradually rising due to global warming.

The clash of factors has led to significant uncertainty in this year’s modeling, NOAA scientists say. With all that in mind, here are some of the main aspects of this year’s forecasts:

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  • NOAA forecasts a “near-normal” year, with 12-17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and one to four major hurricanes of Category 3 and above.
  • A closely watched forecast from Colorado State University predicts a slightly below-average year, with 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
  • An average year includes 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on a 30-year history between 1991 and 2020.
  • Because of recent highly active years, this year’s “near-normal” forecast would have been considered a more active season a decade ago.

“We’ve had anywhere from six named storms to 18 named storms during El Ninos,” said NOAA’s Matthew Rosencrans. “The stronger an El Nino event, usually the less amount of storms you have. But we are also in an active era, and having a strong El Nino with an active era and such warm (sea surface temperatures), I’ve only seen it one other time in the historical record. So there’s not a lot of analog evidence for it. So it’s definitely kind of a rare setup for this year.”

Don’t rely on contraflow

One piece of advice state officials are stressing has to do with contraflow – specifically, not to rely on it. Due in part to the increasingly rapid intensification of storms, contraflow is often not a viable option for Louisiana.

There is a checklist of factors that must be met before the state can employ contraflow, or shifting all lanes of highway traffic in the same direction, according to the state Department of Transportation and Development. Prerequisites include New Orleans and the metro parishes calling for a mandatory evacuation and a slow-moving Category 3 storm or higher in the Gulf.

The decision to use contraflow must be made 72 hours in advance, and preparation for it is extremely burdensome. Equipment to shut off hundreds of intersections and direct traffic must be set out and engineers must reprogram traffic lights. The state must also complete evacuations from pickup points and coordinate with other states.

Implementing contraflow outside of that checklist can cause more harm than good since it severely limits transportation options, state officials say. It has not been used since Hurricane Gustav in 2008.

“You can’t just run up to your local grocery store and buy contraflow off the shelf,” said DOTD spokesman Rodney Mallett.

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The state is also urging people to leave early, drive north and look for alternative routes when they do evacuate since storms can shift to the east or west. As an example, Mallett said it took as much as 15 hours to reach Houston before Ida.

Around 1,900 families remain in state-provided trailers distributed since Ida, mostly in Terrebonne and Lafourche parishes, and they should always evacuate while not taking the trailers with them, GOHSEP spokesman Mike Steele says. The trailers are strapped down and connected to local electrical and sewage systems.

Staff Writer Mark Schleifstein contributed to this report.





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Louisiana

Democrats hope to flip a reliably Republican Louisiana congressional seat with new boundaries

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Democrats hope to flip a reliably Republican Louisiana congressional seat with new boundaries


BATON ROUGE, La. — In a critical election year, Democrats are looking to flip a once reliably Republican Louisiana congressional seat, where political boundaries were recently redrawn to form the state’s second mostly Black congressional district.

With five people on the ballot for Louisiana’s Sixth Congressional District, Democrats have thrown their support behind longtime politician Cleo Fields, 61. The state senator has been involved in state politics for three decades and served two terms in Congress after being elected in 1992.

Across the aisle, Republicans are looking to preserve the seat, especially in an election year where the GOP is trying to hold on to their majority in the U.S. House. The only Republican on the ballot is former state lawmaker Elbert Guillory, 80.

For nearly 50 years, only one Democrat has won the seat in Louisiana’s 6th Congressional District. But the district’s boundaries have recently been recrafted.

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In January state lawmakers passed Louisiana’s new congressional map with a second majority-Black district, marking a win for Democrats and civil rights groups after a legal battle and political tug-of-war that spanned nearly two years.

The new 6th District boundaries stretch across the state in a narrow and diagonal path, from the state capital, Baton Rouge, to Shreveport in the northwest corner. Black residents account for 54% of its voters, up from 24% previously. Both Fields and Guillory are Black.

A lower court ruled that the new map was an illegal racial gerrymander, but in May the Supreme Court ordered Louisiana to use it in this year’s congressional elections — boosting Democrats’ chances of gaining control of the closely divided House.

Currently, out of Louisiana’s six congressional seats, there is one Democrat, U.S. Rep. Troy Carter, the state’s sole Black member of Congress.

Noticeably absent from the race is incumbent U.S. Rep. Garret Graves. The white Republican announced that he would not seek reelection, saying that it did not make sense to run under the new map.

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All of Louisiana’s six congressional seats are up for election. The five other races feature incumbents, including two of the country’s most powerful Republicans – U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise.

Also seeking reelection are Carter and Republicans Clay Higgins and Julia Letlow. All the incumbents are facing lesser-known challengers on the ballot.



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US supreme court to rule on new mostly Black Louisiana congressional districts

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US supreme court to rule on new mostly Black Louisiana congressional districts


The US supreme court said on Monday it will take up a new redistricting case involving Louisiana’s congressional map with two mostly Black districts.

The court will not hear arguments until early next year and the 2024 elections are proceeding under the challenged map, which could boost Democrats’ chances of retaking the closely divided US House.

A lower court had invalidated the map, but the justices allowed it to be used in 2024 after an emergency appeal from the state and civil rights groups.

The issue in front of the justices is whether the state relied too heavily on race in drawing a second majority Black district.

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The court’s order on Monday is the latest step in federal court battles over Louisiana congressional districts that have lasted more than two years. Louisiana has had two congressional maps blocked by lower courts – and the US supreme court has intervened twice.

The state’s Republican-dominated legislature drew a new congressional map in 2022 to account for population shifts reflected in the 2020 census. But the changes in effect maintained the status quo of five Republican-leaning majority white districts and one Democratic-leaning majority Black district in a state that is about one-third Black.

Noting the size of the state’s Black population, civil rights advocates challenged the map in a Baton Rouge-based federal court and won a ruling from US district judge Shelly Dick that the districts probably discriminated against Black voters.

The supreme court put Dick’s ruling on hold while it took up a similar case from Alabama. The justices allowed both states to use the maps in the 2022 elections even though both had been ruled likely to be discriminatory by federal judges.

The high court eventually affirmed the ruling from Alabama, which led to a new map and a second district that could elect a Black lawmaker. The justices returned the Louisiana case to federal court, with the expectation that new maps would be in place for the 2024 elections.

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The fifth US circuit court of appeals gave lawmakers in Louisiana a deadline of early 2024 to draw a new map or face the possibility of a court-imposed map.

Jeff Landry, the state’s Republican governor, had defended Louisiana’s congressional map as the state’s attorney general. Now, though, he urged lawmakers to pass a new map with another majority-Black district at a special session in January. He backed a map that created a new majority Black district stretching across the state, linking parts of the Shreveport, Alexandria, Lafayette and Baton Rouge.

A different set of plaintiffs, a group of self-described non-African Americans, filed suit in western Louisiana, claiming that the new map was also illegal because it was driven too much by race, in violation of the US constitution. A divided panel of federal judges ruled 2-1 in April in their favor and blocked use of the new map.

The supreme court voted 6-3 to put that ruling on hold and allow the map to be used.

Liz Murrill, the state attorney general whose office has defended both maps enacted by lawmakers, called on the court to “provide more clear guidance to legislators and reduce judicial second-guessing after the legislature does its job”.

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“Based upon the supreme court’s most recent pronouncements, we believe the map is constitutional,” Murrill said.

The state and civil rights groups were at odds over the first map but are allies now.

“Federal law requires Louisiana to have a fair map that reflects the power and voice of the state’s Black communities,” Stuart Naifeh of the NAACP Legal Defense and Education Fund said in a statement. “The state recognized as much when it adopted a new map with a second majority-Black district in January. Now the supreme court must do the same.”

The supreme court vote to use the challenged map in this year’s elections was unusual in that the dissenting votes came from the three liberal justices, who have been supportive of Black voters in redistricting cases. But, in an opinion by justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, they said their votes were motivated by their view that there was time for a new map to be drawn – and their disagreement with past court orders that cited the approach of an election to block lower-court rulings.

“There is little risk of voter confusion from a new map being imposed this far out from the November election,” Jackson wrote in May.

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In adopting the districts that are being used this year, Landry and his allies said the driving factor was politics, not race. The congressional map provides politically safe districts for the House speaker, Mike Johnson, and majority leader, Steve Scalise, fellow Republicans. Some lawmakers have also noted that the one Republican whose district was greatly altered in the new map, Garret Graves, supported a Republican opponent of Landry in the 2023 governor’s race. Graves chose not to seek re-election under the new map.

Among the candidates in the new district is Cleo Fields, a Democratic state senator and former congressman who is Black.

Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage



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3 dead, including infant, in helicopter crash on rural street in Louisiana

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3 dead, including infant, in helicopter crash on rural street in Louisiana


The Federal Aviation Administration is investigating after three people, including an infant, died in a helicopter crash in southwest Louisiana.

The crash took place on Friday night in the town of Iowa, prompting local law enforcement, local firefighters and the Louisiana State Police to respond to the scene, Calcasieu Parish Sheriff Gary “Stitch” Guillory reported.

According to the FAA, a Robinson R44 helicopter crashed about 9 p.m. on a rural street in the town, about 60 miles directly east of Lafayette near Lake Charles.

Three people were on board, Rick Breitenfeldt, a FAA spokesperson told USA TODAY on Monday morning.

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Couple, infant killed in helicopter crash on rural street

A male, female and infant died in the crash, Guillory told KFDM-TV, and the aircraft appeared to be personal helicopter.

It was not immediately known where the helicopter took off from or where it was headed.

No other injuries were reported.

The victims’ identities were not immediately released.

USA TODAY has reached out to the sheriff’s office.

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The cause of the crash remained under investigation on Monday by the FAA and the National Transportation Safety Board, who will head the investigation.

Natalie Neysa Alund is a senior reporter for USA TODAY. Reach her at nalund@usatoday.com and follow her on X @nataliealund.



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