Business
Trump’s Tariffs: How the Math Affects Over 100 Countries
President Trump’s new tariffs on more than 100 countries used the same simple formula to calculate the rate for each of them.
The formula’s central value is the trade deficit, the difference between imports and exports between each country and the United States, for the year 2024.
The slightly more detailed math looks like this:
Mr. Trump has said these tariffs will reduce trade imbalances and level the international playing field.
But his one-size-fits-all formula is blunt: It applies the exact same math to countries whether they have hefty trade barriers or wide-open markets. It considers only the size of a trade deficit, not why the deficit exists.
And it has some key choices hidden within it. Change any one of those choices, and the resulting tariffs would look very different.
Here, we take you through these variables so you can see how different choices might yield big changes for the countries that trade with the United States.
Goods and services
The Trump administration calculated the trade deficit using only goods — physical items that can be shipped — and not services, such as technology, media, banking and tourism. (A DVD counts; a Netflix subscription doesn’t.)
That’s great news for Bermuda, the archipelago nation that exports few goods but plenty of financial services to the United States (thanks to its favorable tax laws, American companies like to bank there). Under the current rules, it pays a 10 percent tariff. If its service dollars were counted, it would pay 37 percent.
But it’s bad news for most of America’s other trading partners. The United States imports more goods from the European Union than it sends. But it exports more services than it buys. If you counted services in the trade gap in Mr. Trump’s formula, the tariffs on the E.U. would shrink almost in half.
Many countries are in the same boat as the European Union, because the United States is the world’s largest exporter of services. Switzerland, in particular, would see its tariffs drop quite a bit if services were taken into account. It exports plenty of pharmaceuticals and watches to America, but if you count all the services it imports from America, its trade deficit shrinks significantly.
How tariffs would change if the deficit included goods and services
country
current rate
new rate
change
Bermuda
10%
37%
+27 pts.
Costa Rica
10%
15%
+5 pts.
Philippines
17%
20%
+3 pts.
South Africa
30%
22%
-8 pts.
India
26%
18%
-8 pts.
European Union
20%
10%
-10 pts.
Brunei
24%
14%
-10 pts.
Switzerland
31%
10%
-21 pts.
The Trump administration has emphasized goods because it blames large goods deficits for a decline in manufacturing jobs. But many economists argue that ignoring services leaves out a key area of trade.
Yearly variation
The Trump administration used 2024 data to calculate the tariff rate, but trade deficits can vary year to year.
Consider this: In 2024, the United States exported more to Saudi Arabia than it imported, but the opposite was true in 2023. Bolivia was the reverse — the United States had a trade deficit with Bolivia in 2024 but a surplus in 2023.
Picking the most recent year might not really capture whether a country has significant trade barriers. It might, instead, be telling us something about the state of a country or the world’s economy at that moment.
If the administration had smoothed out any oddities by using the average trade deficit over the last five years, tariffs on large countries wouldn’t change much. China’s tariffs would rise by one percentage point; the European Union’s would shift by even less.
But for some countries, a different time frame could have meaningfully changed the calculated values — not necessarily to their benefit.
For example: The United States had a tiny trade deficit with Equatorial Guinea in 2024, so the African country is getting a much better deal than it would have in previous years, when the deficit was several times higher. Brunei, on the other hand, has sold more to the U.S. than it has bought the last couple of years. Look back a little further, and it would’ve benefited from the years it spent as a net buyer of American goods.
How tariffs would change if the deficit were based on a 2020 to 2024 average
country
current rate
new rate
change
Equatorial Guinea
13%
30%
+17 pts.
Kosovo
10%
27%
+17 pts.
Ghana
10%
21%
+11 pts.
Malaysia
24%
32%
+8 pts.
Moldova
31%
23%
-8 pts.
Tunisia
28%
19%
-9 pts.
Namibia
21%
10%
-11 pts.
Brunei
24%
10%
-14 pts.
The new tariffs will very likely cause changes in trading patterns, meaning even more year-to-year variation than before. If the administration decides to keep the formula intact for years, it may need to update the trade deficit values regularly.
The 10 percent floor
The Trump administration set a 10 percent minimum tariff for every country. At least 100 countries and territories that buy more from the United States than they sell — which seems to be what Mr. Trump wants — were still given the 10 percent tariff.
The United States has a large trade surplus with Australia — it exports more than twice as much to Australia as what it buys — indicating the kind of trade relationship Mr. Trump is seeking. And yet Australia will be charged the same 10 percent tariff rate as New Zealand, with which the United States has a calculated 20 percent trade deficit. (If anything, Australia would impose a steep tariff on U.S. goods if it followed Mr. Trump’s system.)
If the administration had not imposed a 10 percent minimum, the tariffs on some of America’s major trading partners might look like this:
How tariffs would change if there were no floor
country
current rate
new rate
change
Australia
10%
0%
-10 pts.
Brazil
10%
0%
-10 pts.
Chile
10%
0%
-10 pts.
Colombia
10%
0%
-10 pts.
Saudi Arabia
10%
0%
-10 pts.
Singapore
10%
0%
-10 pts.
Britain
10%
0%
-10 pts.
United Arab Emirates
10%
0%
-10 pts.
Everything else
Using the current Trump formula as a starting point, there are many arbitrary choices that would result in different tariffs and a different world economy. We played out every iteration of our choices from above, to see what tariffs might look like under different decisions.
Here are the countries with the widest ranges of possible tariff rates, based on those scenarios.
These ranges include eight possible scenarios, based on three decision points: including versus excluding services; using 2024 data versus 2020-24 data; a 10 percent floor versus no floor.
Changes to the formula would lead to big changes for some countries
country
Bermuda
Kosovo
Brunei
Switzerland
Equatorial Guinea
Monaco
Mozambique
Venezuela
Nigeria
Kenya
Beyond that, the Trump administration made several other arbitrary choices in its formula.
The biggest is that the formula divides the result by two. Mr. Trump said this was chosen to be “kind,” essentially halving the calculated tariff rates. Of course, he could have chosen to divide by three or four to be more kind or not divide at all to be less kind.
The full formula also multiplies the tariff rate by two other variables that we didn’t show above, meant to approximate the “price elasticity of import demand” and the “tariff pass-through to retail prices.” But the numbers the administration chose for those variables are 4 and 0.25, which cancel out (4 × 0.25 = 1) and have no effect on the final rate.
The tariff for Afghanistan is set at 10 percent, though the formula would have resulted in a 25 percent fee. The administration has not explained why Afghanistan is the sole country with different math.
A handful of countries were excluded from the new tariffs, including Canada and Mexico, which face separate tariff negotiations with Mr. Trump, and Russia and North Korea, which have other sanctions already placed on them. For China, on the other hand, the new tariffs are in addition to existing tariffs already in place, bringing China’s total tariff rate to at least 54 percent.
Exceptions on certain products also create some quirks. The United States will charge a 39 percent tariff on all goods from Iraq, largely because Iraq exports a lot of oil. However, oil and gas imports have been excluded from tariffs. This means that products like textiles or dates imported from Iraq will be charged a large tariff because of Iraq’s oil exports, even though the oil exports themselves will not be charged tariffs.
It is hard to say how long the formula will remain intact. Mr. Trump said Thursday that he was willing to make deals with other countries if the United States received something “phenomenal.”
Business
Video: Why Your Paycheck Feels Smaller
new video loaded: Why Your Paycheck Feels Smaller
By Ben Casselman, Nour Idriss, Sutton Raphael and Stephanie Swart
April 18, 2026
Business
Civil case against Alec Baldwin, ‘Rust’ movie producers advances toward a trial
Nearly two years after actor Alec Baldwin was cleared of criminal charges in the “Rust” movie shooting death, a long simmering civil negligence case is inching toward a trial this fall.
On Friday, a Los Angeles Superior Court judge denied a summary judgment motion requested by the film producers Rust Movie Productions LLC, as well as actor-producer Baldwin and his firm El Dorado Pictures to dismiss the case.
During a hearing, Superior Court Judge Maurice Leiter set an Oct. 12 trial date.
The negligence suit was brought more than four years ago by Serge Svetnoy, who served as the chief lighting technician on the problem-plagued western film. Svetnoy was close friends with cinematographer Halyna Hutchins and held her in his arms as she lay dying on the floor of the New Mexico movie set. Baldwin’s firearm had discharged, launching a .45 caliber bullet, which struck and killed her.
The Bonanza Creek Ranch in Santa Fe, N.M. in 2021.
(Jae C. Hong / Associated Press)
Svetnoy was the first crew member of the ill-fated western to bring a lawsuit against the producers, alleging they were negligent in Hutchins’ October 2021 death. He maintains he has suffered trauma in the years since. In addition to negligence, his lawsuit also accuses the producers of intentional infliction of emotional distress.
Prosecutors dropped criminal charges against Baldwin, who has long maintained he was not responsible for Hutchins’ death.
“We are pleased with the Court’s decision denying the motions for summary judgment filed by Rust Movie Productions and Mr. Baldwin,” lawyers Gary Dordick and John Upton, who represent Svetnoy, said in a statement following the hearing. “He looks forward to finally having his day in court on this long-pending matter.”
The judge denied the defendants’ request to dismiss the negligence, emotional distress and punitive damages claims. One count directed at Baldwin, alleging assault, was dropped.
Svetnoy has said the bullet whizzed past his head and “narrowly missed him,” according to the gaffer’s suit.
Attorneys representing Baldwin and the producers were not immediately available for comment.
Svetnoy and Hutchins had been friends for more than five years and worked together on nine film productions. Both were immigrants from Ukraine, and they spent holidays together with their families.
On Oct. 21, 2021, he was helping prepare for an afternoon of filming in a wooden church on Bonanza Creek Ranch. Hutchins was conversing with Baldwin to set up a camera angle that Hutchins wanted to depict: a close-up image of the barrel of Baldwin’s revolver.
The day had been chaotic because Hutchins’ union camera crew had walked off the set to protest the lack of nearby housing and previous alleged safety violations with the firearms on the set.
Instead of postponing filming to resolve the labor dispute, producers pushed forward, crew members alleged.
New Mexico prosecutors prevailed in a criminal case against the armorer, Hannah Gutierrez, in March 2024. She served more than a year in a state women’s prison for her involuntary manslaughter conviction before being released last year.
Baldwin faced a similar charge, but the case against him unraveled spectacularly.
On the second day of his July 2024 trial, his criminal defense attorneys — Luke Nikas and Alex Spiro — presented evidence that prosecutors and sheriff’s deputies withheld evidence that may have helped his defense . The judge was furious, setting Baldwin free.
Variety first reported on Friday’s court action.
Business
California’s gas prices push Uber and Lyft drivers off the road
The highest gas prices in the country are making it tougher for some gig drivers to make a living.
Gas prices have shot up amid the war in the Middle East. On average, California gas prices are the most expensive in the United States, according to data from the American Automobile Assn. The average price of regular gas in California is almost $6. The national average is a little above $4.
While Uber and Lyft drivers have concocted clever ways to cut gas consumption, they say that without some relief they will be forced to leave the ride-hailing business.
John Mejia was already struggling to make money as a part-time Lyft driver when soaring gas prices made his side hustle even harder.
“Unfortunately, it’s the economics of paying less to drivers and gas prices,” he said. “It actually is pulling people out of the business.”
Guests at The Westin St. Francis hotel get into an Uber.
(Jess Lynn Goss / For The Times)
Gig work offers drivers the freedom to work for themselves and more flexibility, but being independent contractors also means they must shoulder unexpected costs.
Ride-sharing companies say they’re trying to help, but drivers say the gas relief comes with caveats. For now, drivers say they’re being pickier about what rides they accept, cutting hours and are looking at other ways to make money.
Mejia, who started driving for Lyft more than a decade ago, said in his early days, he would sometimes make $400 in three hours. Now it takes 12 hours to rake in $200.
The San Francisco Bay Area consultant is an active member of the California Gig Workers Union, so he knows he isn’t alone. California has more than 800,000 gig rideshare drivers, according to the group, which is affiliated with the Service Employees International Union.
On social media sites such as Reddit and Facebook, gig workers have posted about how the higher gas prices are eating into their earnings. Among the tricks they are suggesting: reducing the number of times the ignition is turned on or off, avoiding traffic, working in specific neighborhoods and at times with high demand and switching to electric vehicles.
Gig drivers usually have only seconds to decide whether to accept a ride on the app, but they have become more strategic about which rides and deliveries they accept.
That means they are more likely to sit back in their cars and wait for higher fares for quick pick-up and drop-off.
“I highly recommend the ‘decline and recline’ strategy, rejecting unprofitable rides until a better one appears,” wrote Sergio Avedian, a driver, in the popular blog the Rideshare Guy.
Pedestrians cross the street in front of a Lyft and Uber driver on Wednesday. High gas prices have made it hard for gig drivers to make a living, cutting into their profits.
(Jess Lynn Goss / For The Times)
Uber, Lyft and other companies have unveiled several ways to help drivers save on gas.
Uber said drivers can get up to 15% cash back through May 26 with the Uber Pro card, a business debit Mastercard for drivers and couriers. Based on a worker’s tier, they can get up to $1 off per gallon of gas through Upside — an app that offers cash rewards — and up to 21 cents off per gallon of gas with Shell Fuel Rewards. The company also offers incentives for drivers who want to switch to electric vehicles.
“We know the price of gas is top of mind for many rideshare and delivery drivers across the country right now,” Uber said in a blog post about its gas savings efforts.
Lyft also said it’s expanding gas relief through May 26 because the company knows that the extra cost “hits hardest for drivers who depend on driving for their income.”
The company is offering more cash back, depending on the driver’s tier, for drivers who use a Lyft Direct business debit card to pay for gas at eligible gas stations. They can get an additional 14 cents per gallon off through Upside.
Drivers say the fine print on the offers dictates which card they use and where they fill up gas, making it difficult for them to save money.
“If I do the math, it’s ridiculous,” Mejia said. “They’re offering us nothing.”
Uber declined to comment, but pointed to its blog post about the gas relief efforts. Lyft also referenced the blog post and said “the gas savings were structured through rewards to maximize stackable opportunities.”
Guests at The Westin St. Francis hotel get into an Uber.
(Jess Lynn Goss / For The Times)
Gig workers have struggled with rising gas prices in the past.
In 2022, Lyft and Uber temporarily added a surcharge to their fares amid record-high gas prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This year, Uber is adding a fuel charge to its fares in Australia for roughly two months to offset the high cost of gas for drivers. Lyft said it hasn’t added a fuel charge in the U.S. or elsewhere.
Margarita Penalosa, who drives full time for Uber and Lyft in Los Angeles, started as a rideshare driver in 2017. Back then, gas was cheaper. She would easily hit her goal of making $300 in eight hours. Now she’s making just $250 after working as much as 14 hours.
Gas prices, she said, used to be less than $3 per gallon. Now some gas stations are charging more than $8 per gallon.
“Take out the gas. Take out the mileage from my car and maintenance. How much [do] I really make? Probably I get $11 for an hour,” she said.
Jonathan Tipton Meyers wants to spend fewer hours as a rideshare driver.
He already juggles multiple gigs even while driving for Uber and Lyft in Los Angeles. He’s a mobile notary and loan signing agent, a writer and performer.
Driving is “a very challenging, full-time job,” he said. “It’s very taxing and, of course, wages were just continually decreasing.”
John Mejia, a longtime Lyft and Uber driver, poses for a portrait before attending a meeting about unionizing gig drivers.
(Jess Lynn Goss / For The Times)
Even if oil continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran reopened Friday, it could take a while for gas prices to come down to earth, said Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
“There’s an old adage that prices rise like a rocket and fall like a feather,” he said. “I think that’ll apply.”
In the meantime, it will be survival of the fittest drivers. If enough of them decide to leave the apps, the ride-hailing companies could be forced to raise fares further to attract some back.
“Those who approach rideshare driving strategically, tracking expenses, choosing trips carefully, and optimizing efficiency are far more likely to weather periods of high gas prices,” wrote Avedian in the Rideshare Guy blog. “For everyone else, a spike at the pump can quickly turn rideshare driving from a side hustle into a money-losing venture.”
-
Detroit, MI5 minutes agoGame 21: Tigers at Red Sox, Garrett Crochet battles both Detroit and the weather
-
San Francisco, CA17 minutes agoWhy do gray whales keep dying in San Francisco’s waters?
-
Dallas, TX23 minutes agoDallas Mavericks Owners Might Be Making Big Mistake in Search for New GM
-
Miami, FL29 minutes agoDefense dominates, Mensah flashes in Miami’s spring game – The Miami Hurricane
-
Boston, MA35 minutes ago
A crowd scientist is helping the Boston Marathon manage a growing field of 30,000-plus runners
-
Denver, CO41 minutes agoDenver Nuggets Altitude broadcasts now being offered in Spanish for first time ever
-
Seattle, WA47 minutes agoNeed to shred? Free drive-up/ride-up shredding Wednesday at Village Green West Seattle
-
San Diego, CA53 minutes agoGame 21: San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Angels