Business
Trump’s Tariffs: How the Math Affects Over 100 Countries
President Trump’s new tariffs on more than 100 countries used the same simple formula to calculate the rate for each of them.
The formula’s central value is the trade deficit, the difference between imports and exports between each country and the United States, for the year 2024.
The slightly more detailed math looks like this:
Mr. Trump has said these tariffs will reduce trade imbalances and level the international playing field.
But his one-size-fits-all formula is blunt: It applies the exact same math to countries whether they have hefty trade barriers or wide-open markets. It considers only the size of a trade deficit, not why the deficit exists.
And it has some key choices hidden within it. Change any one of those choices, and the resulting tariffs would look very different.
Here, we take you through these variables so you can see how different choices might yield big changes for the countries that trade with the United States.
Goods and services
The Trump administration calculated the trade deficit using only goods — physical items that can be shipped — and not services, such as technology, media, banking and tourism. (A DVD counts; a Netflix subscription doesn’t.)
That’s great news for Bermuda, the archipelago nation that exports few goods but plenty of financial services to the United States (thanks to its favorable tax laws, American companies like to bank there). Under the current rules, it pays a 10 percent tariff. If its service dollars were counted, it would pay 37 percent.
But it’s bad news for most of America’s other trading partners. The United States imports more goods from the European Union than it sends. But it exports more services than it buys. If you counted services in the trade gap in Mr. Trump’s formula, the tariffs on the E.U. would shrink almost in half.
Many countries are in the same boat as the European Union, because the United States is the world’s largest exporter of services. Switzerland, in particular, would see its tariffs drop quite a bit if services were taken into account. It exports plenty of pharmaceuticals and watches to America, but if you count all the services it imports from America, its trade deficit shrinks significantly.
How tariffs would change if the deficit included goods and services
country
current rate
new rate
change
Bermuda
10%
37%
+27 pts.
Costa Rica
10%
15%
+5 pts.
Philippines
17%
20%
+3 pts.
South Africa
30%
22%
-8 pts.
India
26%
18%
-8 pts.
European Union
20%
10%
-10 pts.
Brunei
24%
14%
-10 pts.
Switzerland
31%
10%
-21 pts.
The Trump administration has emphasized goods because it blames large goods deficits for a decline in manufacturing jobs. But many economists argue that ignoring services leaves out a key area of trade.
Yearly variation
The Trump administration used 2024 data to calculate the tariff rate, but trade deficits can vary year to year.
Consider this: In 2024, the United States exported more to Saudi Arabia than it imported, but the opposite was true in 2023. Bolivia was the reverse — the United States had a trade deficit with Bolivia in 2024 but a surplus in 2023.
Picking the most recent year might not really capture whether a country has significant trade barriers. It might, instead, be telling us something about the state of a country or the world’s economy at that moment.
If the administration had smoothed out any oddities by using the average trade deficit over the last five years, tariffs on large countries wouldn’t change much. China’s tariffs would rise by one percentage point; the European Union’s would shift by even less.
But for some countries, a different time frame could have meaningfully changed the calculated values — not necessarily to their benefit.
For example: The United States had a tiny trade deficit with Equatorial Guinea in 2024, so the African country is getting a much better deal than it would have in previous years, when the deficit was several times higher. Brunei, on the other hand, has sold more to the U.S. than it has bought the last couple of years. Look back a little further, and it would’ve benefited from the years it spent as a net buyer of American goods.
How tariffs would change if the deficit were based on a 2020 to 2024 average
country
current rate
new rate
change
Equatorial Guinea
13%
30%
+17 pts.
Kosovo
10%
27%
+17 pts.
Ghana
10%
21%
+11 pts.
Malaysia
24%
32%
+8 pts.
Moldova
31%
23%
-8 pts.
Tunisia
28%
19%
-9 pts.
Namibia
21%
10%
-11 pts.
Brunei
24%
10%
-14 pts.
The new tariffs will very likely cause changes in trading patterns, meaning even more year-to-year variation than before. If the administration decides to keep the formula intact for years, it may need to update the trade deficit values regularly.
The 10 percent floor
The Trump administration set a 10 percent minimum tariff for every country. At least 100 countries and territories that buy more from the United States than they sell — which seems to be what Mr. Trump wants — were still given the 10 percent tariff.
The United States has a large trade surplus with Australia — it exports more than twice as much to Australia as what it buys — indicating the kind of trade relationship Mr. Trump is seeking. And yet Australia will be charged the same 10 percent tariff rate as New Zealand, with which the United States has a calculated 20 percent trade deficit. (If anything, Australia would impose a steep tariff on U.S. goods if it followed Mr. Trump’s system.)
If the administration had not imposed a 10 percent minimum, the tariffs on some of America’s major trading partners might look like this:
How tariffs would change if there were no floor
country
current rate
new rate
change
Australia
10%
0%
-10 pts.
Brazil
10%
0%
-10 pts.
Chile
10%
0%
-10 pts.
Colombia
10%
0%
-10 pts.
Saudi Arabia
10%
0%
-10 pts.
Singapore
10%
0%
-10 pts.
Britain
10%
0%
-10 pts.
United Arab Emirates
10%
0%
-10 pts.
Everything else
Using the current Trump formula as a starting point, there are many arbitrary choices that would result in different tariffs and a different world economy. We played out every iteration of our choices from above, to see what tariffs might look like under different decisions.
Here are the countries with the widest ranges of possible tariff rates, based on those scenarios.
These ranges include eight possible scenarios, based on three decision points: including versus excluding services; using 2024 data versus 2020-24 data; a 10 percent floor versus no floor.
Changes to the formula would lead to big changes for some countries
country
Bermuda
Kosovo
Brunei
Switzerland
Equatorial Guinea
Monaco
Mozambique
Venezuela
Nigeria
Kenya
Beyond that, the Trump administration made several other arbitrary choices in its formula.
The biggest is that the formula divides the result by two. Mr. Trump said this was chosen to be “kind,” essentially halving the calculated tariff rates. Of course, he could have chosen to divide by three or four to be more kind or not divide at all to be less kind.
The full formula also multiplies the tariff rate by two other variables that we didn’t show above, meant to approximate the “price elasticity of import demand” and the “tariff pass-through to retail prices.” But the numbers the administration chose for those variables are 4 and 0.25, which cancel out (4 × 0.25 = 1) and have no effect on the final rate.
The tariff for Afghanistan is set at 10 percent, though the formula would have resulted in a 25 percent fee. The administration has not explained why Afghanistan is the sole country with different math.
A handful of countries were excluded from the new tariffs, including Canada and Mexico, which face separate tariff negotiations with Mr. Trump, and Russia and North Korea, which have other sanctions already placed on them. For China, on the other hand, the new tariffs are in addition to existing tariffs already in place, bringing China’s total tariff rate to at least 54 percent.
Exceptions on certain products also create some quirks. The United States will charge a 39 percent tariff on all goods from Iraq, largely because Iraq exports a lot of oil. However, oil and gas imports have been excluded from tariffs. This means that products like textiles or dates imported from Iraq will be charged a large tariff because of Iraq’s oil exports, even though the oil exports themselves will not be charged tariffs.
It is hard to say how long the formula will remain intact. Mr. Trump said Thursday that he was willing to make deals with other countries if the United States received something “phenomenal.”
Business
After heated debate, California updates key climate limit. Critics say it’s a retreat
In a high-stakes decision that will shape California’s economy for years, air officials late Friday approved a sweeping overhaul of the state’s signature climate program, cap-and-invest.
The 10-3 vote from the California Air Resources Board determines how aggressively the Golden State will curb planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions in the years ahead — and how billions of dollars in revenue will flow through communities, businesses and public programs statewide.
Cap-and-invest was nation-leading when it launched in 2013. The program forces major polluters to pay for their share of emissions by buying allowances at auctions or being granted them for free. It uses the revenue to fund public transit projects, wildfire prevention, affordable housing, clean energy, electric vehicles and safe drinking water.
The pollution limit — or cap — declines each year, reducing the total amount of emissions in the state and helping California reach its ambitious climate targets, including 100% carbon neutrality by 2045.
The Legislature voted last year to extend cap-and-invest through 2045. Officials at the Air Resources Board then spent the last several months drafting and revising the plan voted on this week, which received considerable feedback from oil and gas companies, environmental groups, lobbyists and lawmakers all jockeying for different priorities.
Some 200 people testified in person during the marathon two-day meeting preceding the vote, and the final proposal received more than 1,000 written comments.
Industry groups warned that capping emissions too much and too quickly would push refineries out of the state and drive up already soaring energy costs. But environmentalists and other stakeholders said giving too many concessions to fossil fuel interests would defeat the program’s purpose, which is to drive down emissions along a pathway consistent with what scientists say could preserve a recognizable climate.
The program was always planned to become stricter as the years unfolded, to give businesses more time to make the stronger reductions in their emissions.
Officials were under legal, market and budgetary pressure to pass a plan without delay, and also said it’s important for California to signal market certainty.
“It is no secret that climate policy is at a crossroads — under attack by an openly hostile and well-funded opposition and upended by global economic upheaval,” CARB chair Lauren Sanchez said during the meeting. “At a moment of uncertainty at the federal and international levels, California has the opportunity to lead with consistency.”
Among the key updates to the program are the removal of 118 million pollution permits, or allowances, from the market by 2030, and 900 million after 2030. Officials say this will amount to a steep, 11% annual lowering of the cap by the end of this decade, and 7% from 2031 to 2045, in keeping with the state’s mandated targets.
Critically, however, the update will also create a new pool of 118 million allowances above the cap that polluters can apply for and receive if they invest in decarbonization projects, a program dubbed the Manufacturing Decarbonization Incentive.
The incentive program is intended to discourage regulated industries from leaving the state. Two major refineries have announced exit plans in recent years, including Valero’s Benecia refinery and Phillips 66’s Los Angeles refinery, which shut down in 2025.
But many critics — including transit, affordable housing, environmental justice and clean water groups — said this amounts to a dismantling of the program.
“CARB has proposed creating exactly 118.3 million additional allowances … outside the cap, the precise number of allowances that must be removed from the cap to keep us on track for our 2030 targets,” said Caroline Jones, a senior analyst with the nonprofit Environmental Defense Fund. “This undermines the cap’s role in actually limiting climate pollution, which is the core function of this program.”
The board approved the decarbonization incentive but committed to additional workshops and evaluations of the program before issuing any allowances for it.
Other updates include more free allowances for industrial facilities and refineries, which regulators said will help reduce pressure on gasoline prices. Critics described the free permits as subsidies for oil and gas.
The update will also shift some allowances from gas to electric utilities, and increase funding for the California Climate Credit, a rebate that appears automatically on people’s utility bills.
But perhaps most controversial is how the update will affect the program’s multibillion-dollar revenue, which flows into the state’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund each year and is distributed to various programs. Cap-and-invest has delivered $35 billion for climate projects in California since its inception.
The new incentive pool will mean the loss of $2 billion annually to the fund, or roughly half the amount it has received in recent years, according to an analysis from the Legislative Analyst’s Office.
While the Air Resources Board does not determine how the fund is divvied up — that’s the Legislature — opponents warned that this could amount to significant cuts for the Affordable Housing and Sustainable Communities Program, the Low Carbon Transit Operations Program, the SAFER drinking water program and the Community Air Protection Program, among many others that rely on revenue from cap-and-invest.
“This could create serious consequences, including a potential zeroing out of the state’s support for critical emission reduction programs,” said Phillip Fine, executive officer at the Bay Area Air District. “Striking the right balance is critical, but all consequences must be fully considered.”
It was a sentiment echoed by many who delivered comments during the board meeting.
“These additional allowances would not only endanger our emissions targets, they would also flood the auction market and depress cap-and-invest revenues,” said Pam Odell of the group Climate Action California. “These revenues fund vital programs, promote climate resilience, clean transit and transportation, and public health, especially in the most heavily exposed front-line communities.”
Some groups came out in support of the update, however, including Southern California Edison and Pacific Gas & Electric. The plan strikes a “balance between program stringency and affordability,” Fariya Ali, air and climate policy manager with PG&E, said during the meeting.
Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin (D-Thousand Oaks), who authored the bill that reauthorized the program last year, was cautiously supportive, noting that she would like to see more guardrails around the incentive program to ensure it aligns with state climate targets. But delaying the update would only create more uncertainty at a time when the Trump administration is already canceling clean energy funds and revoking California’s authority to set clean vehicle standards, she said.
“If we fail now to adopt the proposed amendments to cap-and-invest, it would be without a doubt the greatest victory that the Trump administration could possibly hope for to achieve against California’s climate policies this year,” Irwin said.
Oil and gas groups were tepid. Jodie Muller, chief executive of the Western States Petroleum Assn., said the update provides some near-term relief for refineries, but leaves too much uncertainty after 2030 to drive continued investment.
Brian McDonald, regulatory affairs manager with Marathon Petroleum Corp., said similarly that the oil company is “deeply concerned that the current proposal does not go far enough to provide the regulatory certainty needed to sustain in-state fuel production.”
In a briefing ahead of the vote, California climate economist Danny Cullenward said the update threatens both the “cap” aspect of the program by introducing the new allowance pool, and the “invest” aspect by threatening to reduce the program’s revenues.
The proposal is “being presented as a compromise when in fact it is sacrificing both of the key goals of the program,” he said.
The new plan is slated to go into effect Sept. 1.
Business
Another tech company says it will cut hundreds of jobs amid pivot to AI
Layoffs have continued with another tech company saying it was cutting people to enable it to use more artificial intelligence.
Groupon announced in a security filing this month that it will cut up to 400 jobs, or nearly 25% of its worldwide workforce, as part of a broader restructuring plan to make the platform AI-native. The Chicago company plans to carry out the layoffs in the coming months.
Earlier the company’s Chief Executive Officer Dušan Šenkypl had said the company “fell short of our expectations” last quarter.
Since 2022, more than 800,000 tech workers have been laid off, according to Layoffs.fyi, a website that tracks job cuts.
The surge in pink slips started in 2023, when companies that had gone on hiring sprees during the COVID-19 pandemic began to cut back. From January to April this year, U.S. tech employers announced 85,411 job cuts, up 33% from the same period last year, according to global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
Groupon said in the filing that the decision to shift toward an AI-based company is to “better deliver on our mission, serving both customers and merchants.”
The company said the layoffs will cost it as much as $13 million, but save it more than $20 million per year.
This announcement comes as many e-commerce companies are shifting their business models to AI to reduce costs by automating many roles.
Artificial intelligence has also triggered fierce competition for top talent and is also fueling tens of thousands of layoffs this year. The result is that the class divide is widening in Silicon Valley as a tiny group of employees are landing unprecedented packages for AI skills, while many others struggle to find work.
The have-nots are doing everything that used to guarantee great jobs — refreshing resumes, optimizing LinkedIn profiles and doing interviews — but companies are much more picky these days. The tech jobless are rethinking their lives. Some are taking pay cuts, while others are leaving tech. Some are going back to study or launch startups. Some have retired.
Groupon shares, which have fallen 27% over the last 12 months, slipped 1% on Thursday to $21.20.
Business
ABC files applications ‘under protest’ for early renewal of TV station licenses
Walt Disney Co.’s ABC has filed renewal applications with the Federal Communications Commission “under protest” after an order mandating a years-early review of the network’s eight television station licenses.
The criticism was part of the network’s applications for the FCC review, which were filed ahead of a deadline Thursday. In an objection to the early renewal, Disney’s New York station WABC called the FCC order “unlawful, arbitrary and unconstitutional” and said it was “legally indefensible.”
“The Commission had not demanded early renewal in over five decades,” the station wrote in its filing. “And it has never before demanded simultaneous license renewal applications from a group of stations commonly owned with a network as it has here. The order has no legitimate purpose.”
The licenses for the eight ABC-owned TV stations, including KABC in Los Angeles, were originally scheduled for renewal between 2028 and 2031.
The FCC order came shortly after ABC late-night host Jimmy Kimmel made a joke about First Lady Melania Trump looking like an “expectant widow” days before a gunman tried to breach the White House Correspondents’ Assn. gala last month that President Trump attended.
Trump has frequently threatened to have TV station licenses pulled when he is unhappy with their coverage, but the order is the first time the government has acted on his wishes, sparking anger from free speech advocates. The FCC has said the order is part of an investigation into whether Disney’s diversity and inclusion policies violate federal law and the agency’s rules against “unlawful discrimination.”
In its response, WABC said the “only plausible reason” to issue the order was to “punish the station for speech the government does not like.”
“The ultimate injury here is not to the station or its parent company. It is to the public,” WABC wrote. “When a broadcaster must weigh regulatory retaliation before making editorial decisions, the public loses access to journalism that is free from government influence.”
FCC Chairman Brendan Carr said in a statement Thursday that Disney filed its applications to renew its broadcast licenses only after the company was told its previous answers were “disingenuous, deficient and improper.”
“Contrary to Disney’s claim that the FCC called in their broadcast licenses for early renewal for no reason, the record shows something very different,” Carr said. “Broadcast licensees have a unique obligation to operate in the public interest. The FCC will follow the facts and law wherever they may lead.”
FCC Commissioner Anna M. Gomez, the panel’s only Democrat who has backed Disney in its fight, cheered the Burbank media and entertainment company’s filing, saying in a post on X that she was “glad to see them expose the FCC’s actions as nothing more than naked political retribution and an unlawful assault on free speech and a free press.”
Times staff writer Meg James contributed to this report.
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