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SEC Tournament Scenarios: Kentucky gets help from Vanderbilt

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SEC Tournament Scenarios: Kentucky gets help from Vanderbilt


As expected, Kentucky lost to Alabama last night, but the Cats did get some help in the SEC Tournament seeding race. Vanderbilt’s win over Ole Miss and Oklahoma’s win over Mississippi State kept Kentucky within striking distance of the Rebels and Bulldogs in the standings, which could be the difference between playing on Wednesday and Thursday in Nashville.

With four games left in the regular season, Ole Miss is No. 7 in the standings at 8-6, followed by Kentucky and Mississippi State at 7-7. The Cats have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bulldogs thanks to the win in Starkville. That means if the SEC Tournament started today, Kentucky would be the No. 8 seed, playing the first game on Thursday. As we head into the final stretch, the Mississippi teams could have a huge impact on what happens.

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Before we get into the projections, here’s a closer look at the current standings, and each team’s remaining games. Auburn remains in the driver’s seat to win the SEC regular season title. The Tigers come to Lexington on Saturday.

Current Standings – Feb. 23

RANK TEAM CONFERENCE GAMES BACK OVERALL REMAINING
1 Auburn 13-1 25-2 OM, @UK, @TAMU, AL
2 Florida 11-3 2 24-3 @GA, TAMU, @AL, OM
3 Alabama 11-3 2 22-5 MSU, @TN, FL, @AU
4 Tennessee 9-5 4 22-5 @LSU, AL, @OM, SC
5 Texas A&M 9-5 4 20-7 VU, @FL, AU, @LSU
6 Missouri 9-5 4 20-7 SC, @VU, @OK, UK
7 Ole Miss 8-6 5 19-8 @AU, OK, TN, @FL
8 Kentucky 7-7 6 18-9 @OK, AU, LSU, @MZ
9 Mississippi State 7-7 6 19-8 @AL, LSU, TX, @AR
10 Vanderbilt 6-8 7 18-9 @TAMU, MZ, AR, @GA
11 Arkansas 5-9 8 16-11 TX, @SC, @VU, MS
12 Texas 5-9 8 16-11 @AR, GA, @MS, OK
13 Georgia 4-10 9 16-11 FL, @TX, @SC, VU
14 Oklahoma 4-10 9 17-10 UK, @OM, MZ, @TX
15 LSU 3-11 10 14-13 TN, @MS, @UK, TAMU
16 South Carolina 1-13 12 11-16 @MZ, AR, GA, @TN

Projected SEC Standings – Feb. 23

As Saturday showed us, a lot can change as teams, like Vanderbilt and Arkansas, fight to stay on the NCAA Tournament bubble. KenPom predicts Kentucky will split its remaining four games, beating Oklahoma and LSU and losing to Auburn and Missouri.

Looking at KenPom’s projected final SEC standings (with tiebreakers), the Cats would be tied with Ole Miss and Mississippi State at 9-9 in the standings. The Bulldogs would win the three-way tiebreaker due to its two wins over the Rebels, clinching the No. 7 seed. Kentucky would get the No. 8 seed with a 1-1 record against the other two teams. Ole Miss would be pushed to Wednesday with the No. 9 seed due to its two losses vs. Mississippi State.

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  1. Auburn: 16-2
  2. Florida: 14-4
  3. Alabama: 13-5
  4. Tennessee: 12-6
  5. Missouri 12-6
  6. Texas A&M: 11-7
  7. Mississippi State: 9-9
  8. Kentucky: 9-9
  9. Ole Miss: 9-9
  10. Vanderbilt: 8-10
  11. Arkansas: 7-11
  12. Texas: 7-11
  13. Georgia: 6-12
  14. Oklahoma: 5-13
  15. LSU: 4-14
  16. South Carolina: 2-16

Here’s a closer look at the projections for all three teams. Ole Miss has the hardest road left, with KenPom predicting just one win remaining, vs. Oklahoma. Mississippi State’s game vs. Arkansas on March 8 is one to watch. We’ll want to cheer for the Razorbacks in that one to keep Mississippi State in a three-way tie with Kentucky and Ole Miss. The Cats would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Rebels due to the loss in Oxford.

Team Ole Miss Kentucky Mississippi State
Current SEC record 8-6 7-7 7-7
at No. 1 Auburn (L, 12%) at Oklahoma (W, 57%) at No. 4 Alabama (L, 21%)
Oklahoma (W, 75%) Auburn (L, 35%) LSU (W, 85%)
No. 6 Tennessee (L, 39%) LSU (W, 90%) Texas (W, 73%)
at No, 2 Florida (L, 16%) at No. 15 Missouri (L, 86-82) at Arkansas (L, 44%)
KenPom Projected Final SEC Record 9-9 9-9 9-9

Vanderbilt is another team to keep an eye on. KenPom projects the Commodores to lose three of their remaining four games (at Texas A&M -L; vs. Missouri – L; vs. Arkansas – W; at Georgia – L). Things could get messy if Vandy wins one of those and enters a three-way tiebreaker with Kentucky and another team. Shoutout for the win over Ole Miss, Commodores, but don’t get too crazy.

What happens if Kentucky wins one of the two games KenPom projects it to lose, vs. Auburn or at Missouri? The Cats could climb to the No. 7 seed, or even higher if they win out. Lose one or both of the games you’re supposed to win, at Oklahoma or vs. LSU, and you’re almost certainly playing on Wednesday.

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Still lots of basketball to play. Kentucky needs to take care of business and hope the rest of the chips fall in their favor.

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Kentucky

Interesting notes from Kentucky’s thrilling comeback win vs. Tennessee

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Interesting notes from Kentucky’s thrilling comeback win vs. Tennessee


The Kentucky Wildcats continued boosting their resume with a thrilling 74-71 victory over #25 Tennessee on Saturday. Now, the Wildcats sit at 17-7 on the season and 8-3 in the SEC, including winning eight of their last nine games in the conference.

This big win featured some big moments, but it all came down to reliency. Kentucky found themselves down by 14 points at halftime, but they rallied back, thanks to multiple runs. Collin Chandler’s clutch three with 32 seconds left put the Wildcats up by one, but it was exactly what they needed to help them get the job done, as it was sealed by two free throws from Denzel Aberdeen in the final seconds.

Some very interesting notes have came about from Kentucky’s win over Tennessee. Let’s take a look at those, courtesy of statistician Corey Price.

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Kentucky’s comebacks are starting to make history

Believe it or not, but Kentucky’s win over Tennessee made history with the way it played out. This win ended up being the largest halftime deficit in a win in program history for any Kentucky team in Rupp Arena. This win also marks the first time in the history of Kentucky basketball that a team has achieved three wins against an opponent when they trail by 11 or more points at halftime. Mark Pope is also the first Kentucky head coach to have 4 career wins after trailing an opponent by at least 11 points at halftime.

The other two wins? LSU and Tennessee, where the Wildcats first played the Vols in Knoxville and stormed back from down 17 points.

Kentucky made series history vs. Tennessee

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The Kentucky vs. Tennessee series has a lot of history, but on Saturday, the Wildcats added to that as an unranked foe. This most-recent win is the fourth time an unranked Kentucky team has defeated a top-25 Tennessee squad in Rupp Arena. The Wildcats also now have five-consecutive wins over Tennessee, the longest such streak against the Vols since 2011-13. Saturday was also the fewest points. This is also the second time an unranked Kentucky team has defeated a ranked Tennessee team twice in a single season. The Wildcats allowed their fewest points in the second half to a Tennessee team in Rupp Arena (24) since Jan. 12, 1999, where that team allowed 22 points.

Kentucky is now 12-5 as an unranked team all-time against Tennessee and that good fortune continued on Saturday night in yet another big comeback win against them.



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Four players out for Tennessee-Kentucky basketball game

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Four players out for Tennessee-Kentucky basketball game


Tennessee (16-6, 6-3 SEC) will play at Kentucky (16-7, 7-3 SEC) on Saturday in SEC basketball play. Tipoff between the Vols and Wildcats is slated for 8:30 p.m. EST at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky.

The game will be televised by ESPN with Karl Ravech (play-by-play) and Jimmy Dykes (analyst) on the call.

Kentucky leads the all-time basketball series, 164-79, against Tennessee, dating to Feb. 16, 1910. Rick Barnes is 12-13 against Kentucky as Tennessee’s head coach.

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A Tennessee-Kentucky availability report is listed below for Saturday’s basketball game in SEC play. Four players are listed as out, while three student-athletes are questionable.

Tennessee-Kentucky basketball game injury report

Tennessee junior forward Cade Phillips is out. He will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 basketball season due to a recurring shoulder injury.

“We will sincerely miss having Cade on the court and he is certainly disappointed that he won’t be able to play the rest of the regular season, but it’s essential he gets healthy,” Barnes said on Dec. 8, 2025. “Cade did all he could to play through this injury as long as possible.”

Troy Henderson, Felix Okpara and Amaree Abram are listed as questionable for the Vols at Kentucky.

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Sophomore guard Kam Williams, junior guard Jaland Lowe and sophomore forward Jayden Quaintance are also listed as out for Kentucky.

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Otega Oweh has struggled to get rolling against Tennessee

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Otega Oweh has struggled to get rolling against Tennessee


Kentucky senior Otega Oweh is having a career season in 2025-26. The former Oklahoma transfer is setting career highs in points (17.0), assists (2.6), steals (1.8), and two-point shooting percentage (52.8%). The senior has taken on a big offensive load this season and is delivering. Oweh is entering Saturday’s game riding a streak of four consecutive games of 20-plus points. Yet, the preseason SEC Player of the Year is still looking for his first big scoring performance against Tennessee.

Oweh is averaging 16.5 points on .486/.353/.757 shooting splits at Kentucky over 59 games. The veteran has come well short of those averages in four career games against Tennessee.

Game Points Two-Point Shooting Three-Point Shooting Free Throw Shooting
Kentucky at Tennessee (Jan. 28, 2025) 14 4-of-10 0-of-1 6-of-9
Tennessee at Kentucky (Feb. 11, 2025) 13 3-of-10 1-of-1 4-of-6
Kentucky vs. Tennessee (March 28, 2025) 13 5-of-11 0-of-1 3-of-4
Kentucky at Tennessee (Jan. 17, 2026) 12 2-of-6 1-of-5 5-of-9

Otega Oweh is averaging just 13 points per game on 37.8% shooting from two, 25% shooting from three, and 64.3% shooting at the line. All those numbers are much lower than his career averages at Kentucky. For some reason, Kentucky’s top scorer has struggled to get rolling against the Vols. The inefficient scoring has not stopped UK from recording a 3-1 record against Tennessee over the last two seasons, but Rick Barnes‘ defense has been able to take away Kentucky’s top scorer.

In the win over Tennessee earlier this season, Otega Oweh did not get going on the offensive end until crunch time. The Vols typically have a defensive plan that neutralizes Oweh. Kentucky could need some other scoring threats to emerge on Saturday night at Rupp Arena.

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Otega Oweh’s next big scoring output against Tennessee will be his first. The senior has reached at least 20 points against nine SEC teams. Can he get there against a 10th in a fourth attempt on Saturday?



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