Andy Beshear, the governor of Kentucky, canceled a planned appearance in the western part of his state on Friday with no official explanation, intensifying speculation over whether Kamala Harris might choose him as her running mate.

Beshear’s schedule change is far from a guarantee that Harris will select him considering that Pennsylvania’s governor, Josh Shapiro, another name on the shortlist of potential running-mates, also canceled a fundraising trip planned for this weekend.

Shapiro is widely viewed as a frontrunner in the veepstakes, as Democrats hope he could help deliver the key battleground state of Pennsylvania, but Beshear’s supporters insist he is best positioned to sway independent voters in the presidential race. According to a recent Morning Consult survey, Beshear has the highest approval rating of any Democratic governor in the country, with 67% of Kentuckians holding a favorable impression of him.

Beshear’s popularity is all the more astounding given the political leanings of his state. In 2020, Donald Trump defeated Joe Biden by 26 points in Kentucky, and no Democratic presidential candidate has carried the state since 1996.

Despite those significant hurdles, Beshear won re-election to a second term last year by five points, besting the then Republican attorney general, Daniel Cameron. The victory came four years after Beshear defeated a deeply unpopular Republican incumbent, Matt Bevin, by just 0.4 points. The surprise victory was made possible in part because of Beshear’s high name recognition, as his father, Steve Beshear, served as Kentucky’s governor for two terms.

Beshear’s strong performance last year was credited to his consistent leadership of the state through the coronavirus pandemic and multiple natural disasters. The governor pitched himself as a hard-working executive capable of rising above politics to do what is right for his state, an argument that he has reiterated at Harris campaign events in recent days.

At a rally in Georgia last weekend, Beshear contrasted himself with Republican vice-presidential nominee JD Vance, who grew up in Ohio but touted his family connections to Kentucky in his memoir Hillbilly Elegy.

“I mean, there’s a county that JD Vance says he’s from in Kentucky – and I won it by 22 points last November,” Beshear said.

While Beshear emphasized his experience as he sought re-election last year, he also cast a spotlight on one of the social issues that may decide the presidential race: abortion access. A year after Kentucky voters rejected a ballot measure stipulating that the state constitution did not protect reproductive rights, Beshear capitalized on his opponent’s anti-abortion views in a searing campaign ad.

The ad featured a woman named Hadley Duvall, who shared that she was raped by her stepfather when she was 12. Duvall condemned Cameron’s support for an abortion ban as a severe threat to Kentuckians.

“Anyone who believes there should be no exceptions for rape and incest could never understand what it’s like to stand in my shoes,” Duvall said in the ad. “To tell a 12-year-old girl she must have the baby of her stepfather who raped her is unthinkable. I’m speaking out because women and girls need to have options. Daniel Cameron would give us none.”

Even though Beshear leaned into the issue of abortion access during his campaign, reproductive rights groups have questioned his record. They note that Beshear often focuses on pregnancies involving rape or incest when he discusses abortion and that his lieutenant governor, Jacqueline Coleman, previously described herself as “a pro-life compassionate Democrat”. (Coleman has more recently endorsed Harris and condemned the overturning of Roe v Wade.)

Speaking to reporters in Georgia last weekend, Beshear forcefully rejected any suggestion that he was weak on reproductive rights. He reminded them of his multiple vetoes of anti-abortion bills, even though some of those proposals were enacted anyway because of the Republican supermajority in the state legislature.

“I’m the first Democrat in Kentucky that has ever run an abortion ad​​ during an election,” he told reporters. “I’ve stood up every single time, knowing that it would be one of the No 1 attacks on me.”

Questions over Beshear’s stance on abortion could play an important role in Harris’s deliberations, as she has placed a heavy emphasis on the issue since formally launching her campaign last week. But if Beshear joins Harris’s ticket, he will probably follow the example of his predecessors by embracing the agenda of the presidential nominee.

Harris’s announcement is expected no later than Tuesday, when she will appear at a rally in Pennsylvania with her new running mate.