Kentucky
John Calipari’s middling Kentucky team may be college basketball’s most interesting story
The Kentucky men’s basketball team handily defeated Mississippi on Tuesday night, 75-63, providing a rare feel-good moment in a season largely defined by poor defense, inexplicable losses at Rupp Arena and John Calipari’s typical mix of petulance and indignance in response to the pushback he’s getting from Big Blue Nation.
Calipari has been at Kentucky for 15 seasons now − far longer than even he would have expected. But he’s now locked into the job by the largesse of his contract and the lack of better options for a 65-year-old whose best coaching days are likely behind him.
And the plain reality that Calipari likely isn’t going anywhere anytime soon − he won’t be fired, and he isn’t the type to leave millions of dollars on the table − makes what happens over the next six weeks the most interesting story in college basketball.
Either Kentucky will conjure up a March run that heals some deepening wounds, or one of the sport’s preeminent programs will be stuck with a coach it no longer wants and a decline it does not deserve.
Make no mistake: At a time when parity rules the sport, the old guard of coaching stars has largely left the scene and the future NBA stars are not as relevant to college success as they once were, college basketball is pining for a Kentucky comeback.
But to this point, watching Calipari flail around on the sidelines without the answers to make it happen has been nothing short of sad.
Since losing to Wisconsin in the 2015 Final Four, ending the Wildcats’ chance of becoming an unbeaten national champion, Kentucky hasn’t been the same program and Calipari hasn’t been the same coach.
The erosion has happened for a lot of reasons. The biggest is probably that older, more physically rugged players have become more important than the one-and-done freshmen that were Calipari’s specialty. There have been staff changes and some key, longtime Calipari assistants that were shoved to the side in an attempt to become more recruiting-focused. There has also been a staggering stubbornness to adapt to modern basketball until this year, as Calipari has finally embraced the 3-pointer and better offensive spacing.
But the change has come at a cost: Kentucky is now ranked just outside the top 100 in the defensive efficiency metrics, which is stunning in the context of Calipari’s long career. At UMass, Memphis and then Kentucky, defense was non-negotiable. It was the thing that saved his teams time and again when the shots weren’t falling. The effort his teams consistently gave on that end of the floor was probably Calipari’s best attribute as a coach.
And this year, unless something changes late in the season, Kentucky’s poor defense is probably going to be what extends its Final Four drought to nine seasons.
Previously in times of trouble, Calipari always had the next gimmick he could sell and the next recruiting class that could make people believe a championship was just around the corner.
Those days are long gone.
Prior to the Ole Miss win, Kentucky had lost three in a row at Rupp for the first time ever, had lost to hated rival Tennessee for the seventh time in the last 12 meetings and was trending toward a poor seed in the NCAA tournament.
Meanwhile, Calipari has drawn criticism locally for skipping out on his postgame radio interview after a few tough losses, and the atmosphere at home games has been downbeat. Even though Calipari almost certainly isn’t going anywhere, it feels like every game at this point is a referendum on whether he’s still the man for college basketball’s most rewarding, but also toughest, blueblood job.
All this is happening while Kentucky has a roster stacked with future NBA players, including two potential lottery picks in Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham and top recruit D.J. Wagner, who has had an uneven and injury-plagued season. With Kentucky’s mix of freshmen and veterans, this team should be better than 17-7.
“It’s just going to be a process,” Calipari said Tuesday. “And I keep saying to everybody, we’ll break through. We will. My teams break through.”
But nobody really believes that anymore.
At one point in Calipari’s Kentucky tenure, the entire country would have feared this team regardless of the struggles it’s had in February. Just wait, just wait. The light’s going to come on because it’s Kentucky and Calipari. That was the aura around the program he created and his players lived up to time and time again.
The recent reality, though, has told a different story. Kentucky missed the NCAA tournament in 2021, got bounced by No. 15 seed St. Peter’s in 2022 and was outclassed by Kansas State’s veteran guards in the second round last year. Maybe this team can reverse the trend, but they’re going to have to show us.
College basketball was more fun when Kentucky terrified everyone. Yes, Calipari had a few inexcusable March flops and should have more than one national title. But those things can happen in a one-and-done tournament.
Calipari once famously said, “We do more than move the needle. We are the needle.” He wasn’t wrong. For his first six years in Lexington, this program was feared every time it took the court, every year rolling out a new group of future NBA All-Stars who looked the part almost from Day 1.
And the truth is, Calipari’s the only coach in the country who could make that happen. He’s one of one, as perfectly suited to that job and the demands of that fan base as anyone who’s ever lived. When he inevitably moves on at some point, it’s hard to imagine anyone else reaching those highs year after year.
It means there’s one realistic solution to Kentucky’s season of discontent. Calipari desperately needs to do something that now seems long in the past. He has to get this team playing to its potential. He has to reset the clock and put this past month into a memory hole. He has to produce the kind of big run in March that used to seem automatic.
He has to make Kentucky feel like Kentucky again.
The 2024 high school basketball season is set to get underway in the coming days and the state of Kentucky once again features a litany of talent-rich programs.
While the Bluegrass may not rival the likes of Florida or California when it comes to national rankings, it’s still a state that prides itself on the hardwood and continuously churns out top prospects.
Below are the top 25 teams in the state of Kentucky entering the 2024-25 basketball season, as of Nov. 18, per the On3 Massey Ratings.
The On3 Massey Ratings, officially used during the BCS era, is a model that ranks sports teams by analyzing game outcomes, strength of schedule, and margin of victory.
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Lexington Catholic holds the top spot and is coming off a 28-win season last time out. The Knights won at least eight games in a row three separate times last season and are poised for another impressive campaign this winter. The No. 118 team nationally, Lex Cath’s defense ranks No. 2 in the state preseason, per the Massey Ratings. A Dec. 7 matchup against preseason No. 2 Covington Catholic will be appointment viewing.
Covington Catholic is the only team to own a top-five offensive and defensive rating in the state ahead of the season, per the Massey Ratings. The Colonels won 24 games a season ago and will look to make a statement early this time around, as their first six games are all against ranked foes.
The highest-ranked of last season’s Sweet 16 participants, Great Crossing is once again expected to be dominant in and around Georgetown this winter. Led by top-30 prospect and Kentucky center commit Malachi Moreno, the Warhawks, who lost in the state semifinals last time around, are expected to be a force on both sides of the ball. Their offensive and defensive rating both check in inside the top 10 in-state, per the Massey Ratings.
To no surprise, Trinity is a top program out in Louisville. The Shamrocks lost in the Sweet 16 Quarterfinals last season and won 27 games. Heading the roster is junior four-star shooting guard Jayden Johnson, a top-100 prospect. Per the Massey Ratings, Trinity has the top-ranked in-state defensive rating. A matchup against No. 5 Louisville Male early next month looms large.
Louisville Male sits right behind Trinity and, as always, will challenge the Shamrocks every step of the way this season. The Bulldogs won 21 games last season and are expected to be potent offensively for the 2024-25 campaign. They rank No. 4 offensively in-state, per the Massey Ratings. The schedule will be rigorous at the beginning for Male, as it will take on Trinity, Dupont Manual and Eastern early on next month.
After winning 25 games a season ago, Bowling Green is considered a top contender in the Bluegrass once again this season. The Purples have a top-15 offense and the No. 10 defense in the state, per the Massey Ratings. Paired with a favorable schedule, BG will be a tough out if it can make it to Rupp Arena come March.
North Oldham rattled off an 11-game winning streak a season ago as the Mustangs finished 24-6 on the year. The No. 8 offense in the state, per the Massey Ratings, resides in Goshen preseason. A Dec. 5 clash against No. 10 Ballard will serve as an early measuring stick. It is currently Oldham’s lone ranked matchup until January.
Lyon County won the state championship last season and is back for more this winter. The Lions were led by now-Kentucky Wildcats guard Travis Perry — who became the state’s all-time leading scorer during his senior season. While the workload left by Perry is impossible to fully pick up, Lyon Co. is still expected to do damage to opposing defenses this season, as its offensive rating is No. 2 in the state, per the Massey Ratings.
St. Xavier is yet another elite program out of Louisville that’s coming off an impressive 2023-24 season. The Tigers won 29 games and will look to reach 30-plus this time around. They check in right behind Lyon County with the No. 3 offensive rating in the state, and also like the Lions, they have a defensive rating that ranks outside the top 50, per the Massey Ratings.
The preseason No. 1 offensive rating in the state belongs to Ballard, yet another Louisville power. Unlike the rest of the top 10, the Bruins are coming off a bit of a down 2023-24 season, as they won just 13 games. The Massey Ratings predict a big bounce back this winter, and they’ll have a chance to kick things off with a bang thanks to December matchups against North Oldham and Frederick Douglass.
Teams 11-25 in Kentucky High School Basketball Rankings
11. Evangel Christian
12. Dupont Manual
13. George Rogers Clark
14. Warren Central
15. De Sales
16. Frederick Douglass
17. Newport
18. Cooper
19. Oldham County
20. Ashland Blazer
21. Harlan County
22. Woodford County
23. Eastern
24. Christian Academy
25. Bryan Station
Kentucky
Kentucky knew Cooper Flagg's late-game turnover was coming: “That's just a smart guy, smart coach.”
Not once, but twice did Mark Pope call out Cooper Flagg‘s spinning tendencies when looking to create scoring opportunities with the ball in his hands. And that’s just what we saw in The Journey, the Kentucky head coach first bringing up the star freshman’s habit at halftime, telling the Wildcats to attack those moments with two hands when they inevitably present themselves.
“If Cooper gets in there and starts spinning around, move your feet, move your feet, move your feet. And if you’re going for the ball, go in there with two hands,” Pope told the team down 46-37 at the half. “They’ll be less inclined to call a foul. Stick your nose in there. If you’re coming help defense, go in with two hands.”
He brought it up again down the stretch with Kentucky fighting to pull off the upset win, tied at 72-72 with just 26 seconds to go. Duke had the ball with a chance to throw a dagger, almost certainly putting it in the hands of Flagg to make it happen.
Pope’s response?
“If I get Cooper on an iso, we’re coming and we’re rotating down. As he starts to spin, we’re coming,” he said once again. “This could either be a full-body or two hands — we are not paying him out with a foul. Go in with two hands and take the ball. If Cooper goes to work and spins, we should have a body there to take the ball. Yes? Let’s go boys.”
You know the rest of the story, Flagg falling right into Kentucky’s trap. The likely No. 1 pick drives on the left elbow, defended by Andrew Carr. He goes between the legs twice, then spins from left to right with Otega Oweh waiting for him with an outstretched hand. The junior guard makes contact with the ball and secures it with two, just as Pope requested, then takes it coast to coast for the foul and free throws on the other end.
It was the game-winning sequence, putting the Wildcats up two before forcing another Flagg turnover to go up three, then five to wrap up the upset victory.
How did it all happen? Kentucky saw it pop up on film going into the matchup, then saw the trend continue as things unfolded inside State Farm Arena. It was a real-time adjustment called by the head coach — one of many throughout the game, but inarguably the biggest.
“It was something he noticed in real time. He did it a couple of times during the game. We watched it a little bit on film, all of our fours were watching film on him,” Lamont Butler told KSR. “That’s just a smart guy, smart coach. He knew what was going to happen and it helped us out. Otega was able to make a big play and help us get the win.”
“Going into the game, the scouting report, part of that is knowing players’ go-to moves and moves that counter very well,” Brandon Garrison added. “I feel like he was doing that all game, so we knew as players that he was going to make that spin and Otega would be right there to make the game-winning steal.”
Pope also stressed improved transition defense and ball screen coverage among the mid-game keys to a win, but it was his ability to call his shot with Flagg that has stolen the attention — and rightfully so. It’s like when Tony Romo first started calling NFL games for CBS and correctly predicted the plays before they happened. There’s an element of magic to it for the casual fan, but for those participating in the action, it’s about reading the situation and coming up with a response.
Fortunately for Kentucky, Pope is pretty darn good at it.
“It feels great. If you stick to the plan, stick to the scouting report, good things happen like that. We’re going to keep sticking with it,” Garrison said. “… Coach Pope is a great coach.”
“The way Coach Pope does it is very special. He really helped us at that point,” Butler added. “… That’s going to be great for us throughout the year.”
CINCINNATI — The Bearcats hit the road for the first time this season on Tuesday night at Northern Kentucky. Cincinnati lost in this exact scenario two years ago amidst a brutal offensive showing in the second half, but they are ready to avenge that performance with the best UC roster Wes Miller’s had.
UC enters with a 92.9% chance to win the game on ESPN’s Matchup Predictor. The Bearcats are ranked 11th on KenPom, while Northern Kentucky is 186th (highest-ranked UC opponent yet).
“I was pleased with the defensive effort to start the game,” Miller said about his team following Friday’s 86-49 win over Nicholls State. “I was pleased with the defensive effort to start the second half. And there was some good stuff going on.”
Cincinnati is 2-1 all-time against NKU ahead of the 7 p.m. ET Tuesday tip-off on ESPN+.
Will Simas Lukošius keep shooting over 70% from three-point land? Probably not, but Cincinnati is going to be a firm national title contender if he does.
So far, he’s hit 10-14 triple tries to rank tied for third nationally at 71.4% overall. The stroke looks as clean as any shot I’ve seen in person, mixed with the best shape Lukošius has been in during his college career. History says he can’t shoot this well on this type of volume, but above 40% over the full season is very plausible at this rate.
“I don’t feel like he’s forcing the shot at all,” Miller said about his top shooter. “I can’t think of one time when he forced a shot. In fact, early in the game, as he was coming off the floor for the first media timeout, I told him to shoot more. I thought he passed a couple of shots up. He had one he passed up in the corner drove in and turned it over by trying to get a lob to Aziz [Bandaogo]. Those are the turnovers that I can live with because they are aggressive, but he is such a damn good shooter.
“He hasn’t been forcing them, and I think he’s taking the right shots. I believe you have to give credit to the other guys as well because the ball is popping around. You look down tonight and we have 18 assists. The ball is moving around, and there are a lot of other good players on the floor as well. Simas [Lukosius] is not going to shoot 80% this year, because nobody’s ever done that. I want him to do that but that won’t happen. He is going to have a great year, because he’s a really good player, and he continues to improve.”
Off the catch, dribble, and in transition, Lukošius is hitting every type of deep shot through three games, all while he and Jizzle James lead the offense with 5.3 assists per game each.
He’s been the second-most efficient offensive player in the Big 12 so far, posting a whopping 40.3 Player Efficiency Rating and a scorching 92.9% effective field goal rate (fifth nationally). Now, he gets to test that shot outside the friendly confines of Fifth Third Arena. A place where UC shot 28.6% from deep two years ago.
The Lithuanian is showing the end of last season wasn’t just some hot streak—it’s who he can consistently be as a college player. We’ll see if the full-season cement can set on this trajectory.
Time will ultimately tell who takes over the top perimeter guarding role on this Bearcats roster, but Jizzle James has led the way so far.
John Newman III looks like he’s rubbed off on the stout young guard. He’s notched an 82.4 defensive rating this season (16th-best in the Big 12), a big improvement from his 104.6 freshman mark. That’s been showcased with strong footwork on defense and complete control of his on-ball physicality (zero fouls committed in three games).
NKU doesn’t boast any daunting guard matchups like Nicholls’ Rob Brown. The Norse’s leading scorers are both guards, but neither are shooting over 42% from the floor.
“Jizzle James is really improved, and I think that’s so obvious guys,” Miller said on Friday. “He was really, really good on defense tonight. I mean, not only did he defeat ball screens, but I don’t think anybody hit him with the ball screen all night. I mean, he was special, so I was pleased with that, and I could keep going down the line, but I thought Jizzle had a really nice night.”
NKU is bottom-10 nationally in scoring average (57 PPG) and has KenPom’s 300th-ranked offense by efficiency. It should be a clamping field day for James and his teammates.
If healthy, Cincinnati has a few different avenues to hit a high ceiling this coming spring, and these early signs from James are great indicators they can keep climbing up the CBB hierarchy.
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