Happy Friday, Big Blue Nation! It’s a slow news day in the world of college football, which gives me the opportunity to share some thoughts about a few programs before Talking Season takes over our lives.

Over the next six weeks, you’ll hear analysts make the case for some teams to make a run to the CFB Playoff, while casting others by the wayside as pretenders. For example, Missouri will get plenty of praise following an 11-win season with the easiest schedule in the SEC on the horizon, but I’m not buying back-to-back outstanding years from Eli Drinkwitz, especially after losing his defensive coordinator to LSU.

That brief synopsis provides some analysis. You won’t get much more from me in this post. I’m using all gut and no brain to share why you should, or shouldn’t buy into the hype this talking season.

Never Buy: Miami

Mario Cristobal is recruiting like he did at Oregon and hitting the portal hard. I don’t care. Yes, the ACC is a terrible conference. Racking up wins shouldn’t be too challenging, especially if they can get a big in-state win over Florida out of the gate. But the problem with The U is not getting a big win or two, it’s sustaining success. Consistency evades that place like a vegan and a barbeque. Don’t believe the hype.

Can’t Quit: Iowa Unders

Just because Brian Ferentz has left the building, doesn’t mean the Hawkeyes will quit punting to win. Brian’s Dad is just as responsible for their offensive woes. Nevertheless, they’re still going to punt and win a bunch of games this fall.

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Never Buy: Notre Dame

Notre Dame gets judged on different criteria because of they aren’t affiliated with a conference, yet they still get many of the same perks. The Fighting Irish may be good enough to get into the CFB Playoff, but like so many other times over the last 15 years, that doesn’t mean they’re good enough to actually win any games in the postseason.

Can’t Quit: Alabama

I don’t care if Nick Saban is gone, that successful stink isn’t wearing off anytime soon. Kalen DeBoer wins everywhere he goes and he’s got a Heisman Trophy contender under center. Sure, Jalen Milroe has his faults, but his ceiling is good enough to win plenty of big games in Tuscaloosa. Alabama will no longer be the rolling ball of butcher knives that suffocates the rest of the sport, but you will not find me betting on the Empire to collapse overnight.

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Never Buy: Nebraska

This one is a bit touchier subject. I actually got a feeling Matt Rhule will make a significant step forward in year two at Nebraska. The schedule isn’t too daunting this fall. They could be 7-0 when they travel to Columbus to play Ohio State. I’ll probably play with fire and lose money betting on early-season success.

The problem is that even if Nebraska is an eight or nine-win team, their fans still believe they’re one of the biggest brands in the sport. They might be a big brand, but they aren’t a team that’s going to dictate who wins the National Championship.

Can’t Quit: Utah (and Cam Rising)

Trusting teams to succeed in the first year of a new conference is a fool’s errand, one I will happily complete. Why do I trust that Kyle Whittingham moving conferences? Because he’s done it before. The Utes won eight games in their first year in the Pac-12, and that was after moving up from the Mountain West. The Big 12 should be more palatable this fall than last season’s Pac-12.

Utah is making the move with Cam Rising under center, a quarterback who is playing in his seventh college football season. That’s more than enough experience for the Utes to navigate their way to the CFB Playoff.

Never Buy: Texas

Remember when Sam Ehlinger said Texas was back? That was five seasons ago. They’ve been back approximately 72 times since and had to completely start from scratch with a new coach. Sark has this ship well-equipped to bring Texas back, but now they gotta be “back” in the SEC. We sure they’re ready for that? I’m not buying Longhorn stonks in advance.

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