In a season filled with highs and lows, Florida State’s culture has been thrust into the spotlight. While the Seminoles’ 2024 campaign hasn’t met initial expectations, Mike Norvell’s ‘Noles are under the microscope, as people both in and around the program wish to see grit and tenacity continue to shine throughout the remaining weeks. Regardless of record, players have been tasked with carrying the weight of a struggling season, expected to rise to the occasion week after week with determination and focus. With just one conference game left against the North Carolina Tar Heels, each athlete has a chance to make an impact that goes beyond individual stats or win-loss records.

NoleGameday Staff Score Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

As the Seminoles prepare to face a UNC team bolstered by a dynamic offense, their success may depend on the performances of key players like Azareye’h Thomas, Omar Graham Jr., and Jacob Rizy. Together, these three players embody both the heart and potential within Florida State’s program, and they’ll be crucial in a game that could set a positive tone for the program moving forward.

Prior to the start of the 2024 season, DB Azarey’h Thomas was the topic of discussion among beatwriters and national media pundits alike, all of whom were ready to label the experienced defensive back as “Florida State’s next great DB”. Following a sophomore campaign that saw Thomas record 29 tackles, 4.5 of which were TFLs, 0.5 sacks, 10 pass breakups, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery and ranked 4th in the ACC for total pass deflections, those in and around the program expected him to take a monumental leap in his development in 2024. He would undoubtedly slot into a starting role for DC Adam Fuller’s defense, and that increased playing time was sure to provide him with the opportunity to unleash his full potential. For all intents and purposes, Thomas was poised for a breakout season. 

Fast forward to November, and Florida State’s season is far below any pre-season expectations. The defending ACC Champions have 1-win to their name with just one conference matchup remaining on their schedule. Much like the hype for the overall team, the hype surrounding Thomas hasn’t been quite as loud, but that doesn’t mean he’s been a poor defender. In fact, the opposite has been true. Through eight weeks, Thomas is Florida State’s top-performing cornerback, having tallied 35 total tackles, 22 of which were solo tackles, 2 pass breakups, 1 TFL, 1 FF, and 5 quarterback pressures. Per PFF, the cornerback has been targeted a total of 17 times in over 200 snaps but has only given up 11 receptions for a total of 92 yards. Despite a poor season from the Florida State football team as a whole, Thomas is living up to the expectations, and he’s receiving NFL buzz as a result. NFL Analyst James Foster, writing for 33rdTeam, states, “Thomas is the best man coverage cornerback in this class.” Within his recent mock draft, Foster projected the 6’2”, 198-pound cornerback to be selected within the first round at the no. 14 overall slot, citing his youth, experience, and sheer skill set in single coverage as appealing qualities for NFL teams. With a handful of games left in the 2024 season, expect Thomas to continue his streak of strong performances as he looks to round out his film and bolster his draft stock. 

The Seminoles will need Thomas to be just as reliable in pass defense come Saturday, as well. North Carolina’s offense, which ranks 27th in the nation for total yards per game, leans heavily on their passing attack. The Tar Heels average 251.6 passing yards per game and have notched 12 passing TDs over the course of the season, thus far. However, North Carolina’s offense suffered its biggest loss in the season opener wherein starting quarterback Max Johnson suffered a leg injury that has sidelined him for the entire year. In his place, HC Mack Brown has turned to Conner Harrell and Jacolby Criswell, the latter of which has secured the starting job as of late. Criswell, a 6’1”, 230-pound senior out of Arkansas, was on the UNC roster from 2020 through 2022 before transferring to Arkansas. He returned to UNC prior to the start of the 2024 season and currently boasts a total of 1,660 passing yards and 10 TDs with a completion rate of 57.1%. Despite being a veteran at the collegiate ranks, Criswell is rather inexperienced in games, with a total of 35 completions attributed to his name from 2020 to 2023. As such, the senior quarterback is guilty of turning the ball over, including a 2 INT performance against James Madison. That’s where FSU DB Thomas will come into play. The seasoned cornerback, along with his peers in the secondary, have the opportunity to showcase their experience in an effort to slow down and confuse the relatively inexperienced Criswell. If he and the rest of the ‘Noles can do so successfully, it stands a chance that Florida State can limit UNC’s scoring output enough to keep the game close. Look for Thomas to play a key role in both disrupting the UNC passing attack and pressuring the UNC quarterback.

Florida State’s linebackers have been the recipients of relentless criticism since before the 2024 campaign began. Poor performances from the Seminole defense through the early portions of the season only exacerbated those criticisms, with a very clear finger being pointed at the deficiencies of the linebacker corps. Sophomore LB Omar Graham Jr. is no stranger to criticism. Following the loss of DJ Lundy, Graham has watched on as fellow linebackers Justin Cryer, Blake Nichelson and Cam Riley have received praise for their improved play from week to week. Graham, meanwhile, has endured scrutiny, some warranted and some not. However, the sophomore linebacker pushed back against the narrative with a strong showing against the Miami Hurricanes last week. Graham Jr.’s effort against the ‘Canes was noticeable. He was flashing all over the field en route to a 4 tackle, 1 TFL, 1 sack, and 1 pass breakup performance. Graham was FSU’s highest graded defender, per PFF, with a score of 77.0 (in 46 snaps). 

Graham’s most recent performance reflects the elevated play we’ve seen from the Florida State defense in recent weeks. The ‘Noles held Miami to their lowest scoring output, stifled the Duke offense, and kept the Clemson Tigers within striking distance (even when the offense was showing no signs of life). The linebackers, along with the interior defensive line, have made considerable strides in providing pressure in the backfield and slowing down opposing rushing attacks. Similar performances from Graham and his cohorts will be needed this weekend, especially against a Tar Heel rushing attack that ranks 34th in the country. With some confidence and the support of a home crowd behind him, look to see if Graham can build upon his performance from last week and provide DC Adam Fuller’s defense with a consistent presence at the second level of attack. 

It’s not often that we talk about a non-skill position player in the “Three Players” to watch articles. But, when the team is 1-8 and everyone is struggling across the board, you’re open to trying new things. So, when editor-in-chief Dustin Lewis recommended that we talk about OL Jacob Rizy, no one batted an eye. With the offensive line struggling the way it is and plagued by the injury bug, new faces have begun to take over some prominent roles. Rizy, a newcomer prior to the start of the 2024 season, is one of those new faces. The 6’5, 303-pound offensive lineman played in 22 games for Harvard, earning all-conference honors twice and first team all-Ivy League in 2023. Following his 2023 campaign, however, the redshirt junior announced his intentions to enter the transfer portal. After receiving offers from Purdue, Tulane, Duke, UTSA, and Tulsa, Rizy ultimately decided to commit to Florida State in late-January. Since doing the ‘Noles, Rizy has appeared in a variety of roles along the offensive line. He made his first appearance during the 42-16 rout against SMU and earned a PFF grade of 64. However, the experienced lineman received his first start as a Seminole against the Miami Hurricanes, wherein he allowed three pressures. Following this week of practice, many expect to see Rizy continue to take on a prominent role in the trenches. Despite a few shaky outings thus far, look for the veteran lineman to find his footing as the recipient of increased playing time. 

As Florida State gears up for their final conference showdown with North Carolina, the ‘Noles have the opportunity to close conference play on a high note. Despite facing setbacks and falling short of preseason expectations, standout players like Azareye’h Thomas, Omar Graham Jr., and Jacob Rizy exemplify the resilience seen across the roster. Their efforts highlight the strength and potential within the team, even amid adversity. Saturday’s matchup offers the Seminoles an opportunity to leverage recent improvements on both sides of the ball, showcase their competitive spirit, and build momentum as they look toward future seasons.

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