Florida
NoleGameday Staff Score Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
The first two-thirds of the 2024 season are over and Florida State has just one win to show for it through eight games. Though no longer bowl-eligible, the Seminoles have an opportunity to end the season on a strong note and carry some momentum into the offseason after a disappointing year. The good news is that FSU will play three of its final four games at home, the bad news is that three of those four opponents (North Carolina, Notre Dame, Florida) are all fighting for a shot at the postseason.
The Seminoles do have a long streak in their favor entering the matchup against the North Carolina Tar Heels on Saturday afternoon. North Carolina head coach Mack Brown is 0-11 against Florida State (0-8 at UNC, 0-3 at Tulane) dating back to his first matchup against the program in 1985. This is probably the best chance Brown will have to defeat FSU, considering the way the season has gone thus far in Tallahassee.
North Carolina is coming off a win over Virginia where its defense recorded a whopping ten sacks. That could present an issue for a Florida State offensive line that has started seven different starting combinations in eight games. Plus, the Tar Heels are averaging 190.8 rushing yards per game, led by Omarion Hampton, who has already crossed the 1,000+ mark in just eight appearances.
READ MORE: UNC Head Coach Mack Brown Discusses FSU Ahead Of Return To Tallahassee
Our staff provides their predictions and analysis as the Seminoles prepare to take on the Tar Heels.
Another weekend, another embarrassing loss for Florida State. Falling by 3+ touchdowns to Miami is unacceptable in any year, even if this is sizing up to be arguably the worst in program history. The majority of the goodwill the Seminoles have built up over the last two years has essentially been thrown into the trash and it’s clear major changes are needed if Mike Norvell is going to remain in Tallahassee long-term.
At this point, with eight games played, it’s hard to believe that FSU can do anything to fix its pathetic offense. The Seminoles have tried quarterback changes, they’ve played younger skill players, they’ve tinkered with the offensive line, and nothing has worked. When something does finally start to go right, Florida State shoots itself right in the foot with a bad pass, dropped ball, missed block, or penalty. It feels like an episode of ‘Punk’d’ with Ashton Kutcher each weekend spending four quarters watching this offense.
The defense has been playing slightly better but there’s still much to be desired. Three of the starting four of the defensive front were missing in action against Miami as Marvin Jones Jr., Patrick Payton, and Joshua Farmer combined for one tackle in 156 snaps last Saturday. That’s unbelievably bad and it’s worse when you figure out that redshirt freshman KJ Sampson recorded six tackles in just 17 snaps.
I don’t know why anything would get better against North Carolina when this team has nothing left to play for. I also thought the practice I viewed on Wednesday was arguably the worst of the season. There’s not really much of a reason to think positively going into a matchup against the Tar Heels, who are still trying to clinch bowl eligibility. It might get ugly on Saturday.
2024 Season Prediction Record: 5-3
Tar Heels 38, Seminoles 13
This one I’m going to keep fairly short because of two stats that standout to me.
Number one: North Carolina is ranked 29th in the country in points per game at 32.3. Yes, you can say they’ve faced bad teams to score those points. Surprise! FSU is a bad football team. Doesn’t matter.
Number two: The Tar Heels are averaging 3.3 sacks per game, which is seventh in the country. They recorded 10 sacks LAST WEEKEND against Virginia. Yes, Virginia is not a good team. Surprise! Florida State is worse. And don’t get me started about the Seminoles’ offensive line.
2024 Season Prediction Record: 5-3
Tar Heels 28, Seminoles 16
I don’t care how bad a team’s defense is, Florida State’s offense is worse. Omarion Hampton will likely run all over FSU’s defense, and the offense won’t be enough to overcome it. UNC’s passing game has been rough, but it won’t matter towards the final result.
2024 Season Prediction Record: 4-4
Tar Heels 23, Seminoles 10
Florida State has shown little development over the course of eight weeks. Therefore, the ‘Noles have left me with little reason to think anything will be different going forward. The statistics aren’t far off from that belief, as well. UNC has given up an average of 28.4 points per game, which ranks 96th among FBS programs. However, that average is significantly affected by a 70-point performance from James Madison earlier in the season. For the most part, UNC is a middle-of-the-road team, with team averages that rank in the 30-40 range when compared to the rest of the country.
The problem here is that Florida State is statistically poor in all respects. The rushing attack ranks 131st, the passing attack has dipped into the low 100 range, and the defense yields an average of 379.4 yards and 26.4 points per game. FSU’s most glaring issue, however, is their inability to find the end zone. The ‘Noles average the nation’s second worst scoring offense at 14.9 points per game, and as is common knowledge at this point, they are the only FBS team to not score more than 21 points at any point this season. Despite improvements from the defensive side of the ball, Florida State’s offense remains dead in the water. As long as that’s the case, there’s very little reason to believe that the Seminoles can outscore any of their opponents, especially a UNC team that hasn’t scored less than 20 since their Week 1 game against Minnesota.
The outlook is grim, and it’s not hard to see why. ESPN’s matchup predictor positions UNC as the slight favorite to leave with a victory at 52.9%, which means this game is essentially a coin flip. Vegas oddsmakers share this sentiment with a spread of just (-2) in favor of the Tar Heels at the time of writing this article. For all intents and purposes, most believe the game is a toss-up, and one that the ‘Noles can potentially win. As I’ve stated before, I’ve seen little from the ‘Noles that showcase a team that is capable of scoring enough to keep the Tar Heels close, especially a Tar Heel team that is coming off consecutive performances of 30+ points.
I believe the Seminole defense will keep things within striking distance for a large majority of the game, but offensive deficiencies will keep the ‘Noles off of the board and allow the Tar Heels to slowly accumulate points and eventually push things out of reach. Unfortunately, the Florida State home crowd will have to watch yet another first come off of the board for an FSU opponent. UNC will leave Tallahassee with the first win over the ‘Noles for a Mack Brown-led football program in the history of the coach’s illustrious career. In the meantime, I’ll be praying for some sort of Halloween miracle on behalf of the ‘Noles.
2024 Season Prediction Record: 4-4
Tar Heels 31, Seminoles 17
There can’t be much of a case made for Florida State this season. The record speaks for itself, and it appears that whatever transfers they’ve brought in to replenish their team have either been wrought with injury or, for the most part, been misevaluated. There needs to be a spark on offense for any chance at a win this weekend.
It is a home game, and Norvell is arguably the better coach, but if there isn’t anything happening in the offensive line and receiver rooms, the trickle-down effect will likely provide another anemic glimpse into a team that has been put through the wringer, unable to outperform their competition.
This is a tough game to predict because Florida State has a very talented defensive front and secondary that have started to make strides in the right direction, but there have been no answers at wide receiver aside from Ja’Khi Douglas and some of the newcomers on offense. Running backs Lawrance Toafili and Sam Singleton have been bright spots, but in the absence of the players that were brought in, they’ve seemed to be the only bullets in what was once a fully loaded FSU team last year.
Doom and gloom isn’t necessarily my thing, but the two biggest flags that stand out for me are Florida State’s inability to score more than 21 points all season (averaging around 14 per game) and the fact that UNC has a 1,000-yard rusher going against a defensive line that has struggled against the run.
It is a little weird that the over/under is 50.5, and UNC is only favored by 2.5. I’m going to go with UNC winning by three scores.
2024 Season Prediction Record: 4-4
Tar Heels 35, Seminoles 14
The Florida State Seminoles’ disastrous season will be one game closer to the end, though it won’t come without a tough loss. North Carolina has proven capable of scoring points, which the Seminoles have struggled with. The Seminoles will take yet another tough loss while the young guys are showing flashes of the future.
2024 Season Prediction Record: 5-3
Tar Heels 31, Seminoles 17
It’s hard to see any hope in this team, week after week they continue to give me no sense of optimism that things are heading in the right direction this season, and even though even just a few weeks ago I still had hope that the Seminoles would be able to get another win this weekend, I no longer have reason to believe that is going to happen. The Tar Heels are coming off their best win of the season after blowing out Virginia 41-14, and even though I think that the Florida State defense will keep the score a bit lower, this UNC team has scored more than 34 points in five of their eight games, meaning that even though they sit at 4-4, they still have some offensive production, which is what is missing in Tallahassee this year.
2024 Season Prediction Record: 4-4
Tar Heels 31, Seminoles 13
If Florida State cannot stop the run, I just don’t see a path to victory for them. North Carolina running back Omarion Hampton is fourth in nation in rushing yards. The FSU run defense is, uh, not so great in that regard.
The UNC defense is not exceptional either. They are in the middle of the pack (nationwide) stopping the run and in the bottom tier against the pass.
However, UNC has the luxury of being proficient in what FSU struggles defending, which of course is the run game. The FSU offense isn’t really proficient in anything.
Therefore, it appears the Seminoles will have to either force turnovers, stop the run, hold on to the ball for a while and score with the minimal chances they receive, or win in a shootout.
I truly don’t see any one of those happening, because they haven’t proven they could accomplish those feats against anyone all year.
2024 Season Prediction Record: 4-4
Tar Heels 27, Seminoles 17
CONSENSUS: North Carolina (8-0)
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Florida Tech students working on prototypes of a robotic manatee
Florida Tech students working on prototypes of a robotic “Mechanatee” manatee for a variety of research possibilities.
This past year brought mixed milestones for manatees: near-record deaths for young sea cows but also a bit more seagrass for grazing, some new scientific insights and other hints of hope for 2026.
While they kept dying in droves, sea cows on the Space Coast — among their most important feeding spots — found more seagrass in the northern Indian River Lagoon. And a landmark legal ruling mandated that Florida’s most popular threatened species will soon swim in cleaner waters and must be fed lettuce to prevent winter starvation.
Here’s how the year in manatee news played out:
More manatees died but more also live
Good news arrived in recent years regarding the overall sea cow population. Florida estimated in 2021-2022 that its manatee population was between 8,350 to 11,730, up from estimates of less than half of that only a few decades ago.
But in 2025, Brevard County topped Florida’s manatee deaths, with young sea cows continuing to be the hardest hit, despite the local seagrass gains. State biologists suspect the young are still perishing as a result of a long-term famine.
Brevard typically leads Florida sea-cow deaths, because most seagrass (manatees’ main food) grows here in the 72-mile-long county’s portion of the 156-mile-long Indian River Lagoon.
According to the most recent stats from the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, through Dec. 26:
- Brevard had the most deaths: 118 manatees died in Brevard, compared to 100 in 2024. Lee County was second highest in 2025, with 113 manatee deaths.
- Brevard’s deaths included: 9 by watercraft; 3 other human causes; 50 perinatal; 13 cold stress; 13 natural; 9 undetermined; and 21 not necropsied.
- Statewide: 628 manatees died, topping the previous two years of 556 in 2024 and 546 in 2023. That still was less than the five-year average of 719 manatee deaths. Those deaths included: 97 by watercraft; 9 from a flood gate/canal lock; 9 other human causes; 135 perinatal; 33 cold stress; 63 natural; 50 undetermined; and 232 not necropsied.
- One in five Florida manatees died within a year of birth: The 135 so-called “perinatal” manatee deaths — those that die within a year of birth — were 21% of the overall 628 manatee deaths last year. That was less than the record 149 perinatal deaths through Dec. 26, 2024, which increased to 154 total perinatal deaths for that year. But 2025 topped the five-year average of 104 perinatal deaths.
More landmark legal protection
In May, a federal judge ruled that Florida has to temporarily stop approving new septic tanks near the northern Indian River Lagoon and plan to start feeding manatees again when they are faced with winter starvation.
Brevard is offering homeowners financial help to meet that and other state septic-tank mandates.
The new manatee rules will remain in effect until the state gets a federal permit that allows so-called “incidental takes” of threatened manatees, the judge ruled. Incidental take refers to the unintentional (but not unexpected) death, injury, or harassment of a protected species during otherwise lawful activity.
In a separate legal battle, conservation groups have for several years been suing the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to reclassify manatees from “threatened” back to “endangered.” Last year, the service declined to return Florida manatees to “endangered” status, a ruling environmental groups continue to challenge.
New manatee rehab opens at Brevard Zoo
Last year, Brevard Zoo took in the first two manatee patients — Churro and Randa — at the zoo’s new $2.1 million sea cow rehab center. As with the zoo’s sea turtle rehab, the facility is not open to the general public. But on April 4, the zoo gave Gov. Ron DeSantis a behind-the-scenes tour as the zoo celebrated the center’s opening with a ribbon cutting.
Florida Tech makes strides with robotic manatee
In 2025, Florida Tech students made leaps forward with a robotic manatee, called “Mechanatee.” They hope in years ahead to use the robot to study real manatees in the wild without disturbing them. The robot will mimic the movements and communication of manatees to gather data on their behavior and habitat. The project is still in its early stages, but the team hopes to eventually test Mechanatee in Belize.
Other sea-cow scientific breakthroughs:
Several other groundbreaking studies in 2025 showed, among other things, that a popular herbicide is suppressing manatee immunity, that sea cows aren’t nearly as longstanding Florida natives as once thought and are sophisticated navigators.
- In January, University of Florida researchers found that the popular herbicide glyphosate can reduce manatee immune cell activity by more than 27%. That suggests sea cows living near high agricultural or residential runoff are more vulnerable to diseases and infections, even if they aren’t directly starving.
- Manatees are relative newcomers to Florida: The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service says on its website: “As its name suggests, the Florida manatee is native to Florida and is found primarily in coastal areas throughout the state.” But a landmark study in the journal PLOS One released in January 2025 by University of South Florida found almost no manatee bones in more than 70 Native American settlements older than a few hundred years. That suggests manatees only likely began migrating from the West Indies when the climate started heating up, beginning at the end of the 19th century with the onset of the Industrial Revolution, the USF researchers concluded. Cooler temperatures lasting until the late 1800s probably kept cold-sensitive sea cows from migrating much north of the West Indies, USF concluded.
- In April, a study lead by New College in Sarasota used post mortem MRIs to find that manatees are more sophisticated navigators than previously thought. “Despite this apparently ‘simple’ brain, manatees in the wild show some cognitively sophisticated behaviors, particularly in the realm of navigation,” the authors wrote. “Future work in manatees should examine local and global brain connectivity related to spatial navigation and other complex cognitive capabilities.”
Contact Waymer at (321) 261-5903 or jwaymer@floridatoday.com. Follow him on X at @JWayEnviro.
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