Topline

Hurricane Milton is approaching Florida’s Gulf Coast, where millions have been told to evacuate as forecasters warn it could be be “one of the most destructive hurricanes on record” for the west-central part of the state.

Key Facts

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What Time Will Hurricane Milton Make Landfall?

The National Hurricane Center said Milton will likely make landfall as a major hurricane near or just south of the Tampa Bay region Wednesday night and will move off the east coast of Florida on Thursday afternoon.

Crucial Quote

“I’ve said many times that (if) you want to pick a fight with Mother Nature, she’s winning 100 percent of the time,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor said. “And individuals that are in these, say you’re in a single-story home. Twelve feet is above that house. So, if you’re in it, you know, basically that’s the coffin you’re in.”

What Is Storm Surge And Where Could It Be The Worst?

Storm surge is the abnormal rise of seawater level caused by a storm. The NHC warned the combination of storm surge and the tide will cause areas that are normally dry near the coast to be flooded. From Anna Maria Island to Boca Grande, the storm surge could be nine to 13 feet above the ground. The surge is forecast to reach eight to 12 feet between Boca Grande and Bonita Beach, and could also reach those heights in Charlotte Harbor. For Tampa Bay, six to nine feet of surge is expected.

Where Have Tornado Warnings Been Issued?

Numerous tornado warnings were issued Wednesday afternoon in southern Florida and across the Interstate 95 corridor. Tornado watches are in effect for most of central and southern Florida through Wednesday night. The NHC noted a “risk of strong tornadoes” will continue through Wednesday evening.

What Have Politicians Said About Hurricane Milton?

President Joe Biden addressed the country from the White House Tuesday morning and called Hurricane Milton “a matter of life and death.” He encouraged Florida residents in the path of the storm to evacuate “now” and postponed a planned international trip to Germany and Angola “in order to oversee preparations for and the response to Hurricane Milton.” Vice President Kamala Harris and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis have been in a strange he-said-she-said about the incoming storm, with Harris accusing DeSantis of not taking her calls and “playing political games” DeSantis said Harris “has no role in this” and that he’s been communicating just fine with Biden, who also said he has been in touch. Biden said he gave DeSantis his personal phone number and told him to call if there is anything the federal government can do to help. Tampa Mayor Jane Castor said in an interview with CNN, “I can say without any dramatization whatsoever: If you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you’re going to die.” Vice President Kamala Harris on Wednesday afternoon told CNN even if the category of the storm changed, “that is not actually a downgrade in terms of the danger and the dangerous potential of it,” urging Floridians to not rely on the designation “to their detriment.”

How Is Travel To Florida Impacted By Hurricane Milton?

Tampa International Airport closed at 9 a.m. Tuesday with plans to reopen “as soon as it is safe” later this week and Orlando International Airport closed at 8 a.m. Wednesday. More than 1,700 flights into and out of the United States were canceled as of 8:50 a.m. on Wednesday, and another 350 were delayed. Orlando saw by far the most cancellations, with 398 flights originating there being canceled and 423 flights arriving there being canceled, followed by Tampa with about 190 canceled each way, according to Flight Aware. Major airlines have told passengers they can change their plans without paying a fare difference. Walt Disney World Resort is closing its parks beginning Wednesday morning—news that came after Goldman Sachs predicted the company is likely to take a nine-figure hit financially from the storm. Universal Resort Orlando announced Tuesday afternoon it will close at 2 p.m. EDT Wednesday and remain closed Thursday. Legoland Florida Resort and SeaWorld Orlando will both be closed on Wednesday and Thursday, and Busch Gardens Tampa is now closed through Thursday.

Have Waffle Houses Closed For Hurricane Milton?

Yes. Tampa-area locations of Waffle House, the breakfast food chain, will close ahead of Milton’s projected landfall. The company cited the so-called “Waffle House Index” in a social media post explaining the decision, a reference to a scale invented by former Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) administrator Craig Fugate to judge the severity of a natural disaster. If Waffle Houses in an area are open and serving a full menu, it’s a green on the index, a limited menu is a yellow on the scale, meaning the local area could be without electricity or water, and the index goes to red if the locations close down, indicating the local community will be in need of significant help.

Could Hurricane Milton Be A Category 6 Hurricane?

No. There is currently no such thing as a Category 6 hurricane. The National Hurricane Center measures storm intensity using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which ranks storms up to a Category 5, but some scientists think it may be time for a change. Earlier this year, researchers proposed adding a sixth hurricane category to describe storms with wind speeds above 192 mph and adjusting the current Category 5 description to include storms with winds between 157 and 192 mph. Using that proposed scale, five storms between 1980 and 2021 would have been classified as a Category 6, none of which threatened to make landfall in the United States. The National Hurricane Center in February said it has no plans to add a Category 6 to its hurricane scale.

Key Background

Milton will be the second major hurricane to hit Florida in two weeks. Hurricane Helene hit the state on Sept. 26, killing at least 20 in Florida, before going on to devastate parts of the southeastern United States. More than 220 people have died and hundreds more are still missing, with western North Carolina taking the brunt of flooding that the state’s governor says wiped communities “off the map.” In Florida, people are still working to clear debris from Helene as the next storm bears down. Ahead of Hurricane Milton, Hillsborough County, home to Tampa, ordered evacuations for areas near Tampa Bay and for all mobile and manufactured homes by Tuesday night. Lee County, home to Fort Myers, issued a mandatory evacuation order for the island of Fort Myers Beach. Other mandatory evacuation orders have been issued in Pinellas County, Pasco County and Manatee County. DeSantis on Tuesday said he wasn’t sure exactly how many people plan to evacuate for Hurricane Milton, but that he thinks those who saw Hurricane Helene will be particularly motivated to leave the area.

Tangent

Federal Emergency Management Agency has said it is grappling with “extremely damaging” false narratives circulating about Hurricane Helene, which hit the U.S. two weeks ago. FEMA chief Deanne Criswell said misinformation about the storm and the federal government’s response is the “worst” she’s ever seen as former President Donald Trump and his allies slam the agency. Trump incorrectly claimed FEMA couldn’t respond appropriately to the storm because it diverted so much money to helping migrants on the order of Vice President Kamala Harris. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said the agency is “meeting the immediate needs with the money that we have.” Other rumors include that FEMA has been withholding aid from areas that have historically voted Republican and that the agency is only giving $750 to disaster survivors to support their recovery.

Further Reading

ForbesWhy Officials Are Warning To Take Milton Seriously—Even As Designation Falls To Category 3By Mary Whitfill RoeloffsForbesHurricane Milton Hits Red On ‘Waffle House Index’—The Natural Disaster Scale, ExplainedBy Mary Whitfill RoeloffsForbesBiden Calls Out Trump And Marjorie Taylor Green For Hurricane Misinformation: ‘Beyond Ridiculous’By Molly BohannonForbesHurricane Milton Can’t Be A ‘Category 6’—But Some Researchers Think It’s Time To Create A New Tier For The Strongest StormsBy Mary Whitfill RoeloffsForbesFEMA Blasts Misinformation: The Campaign To Politicize Hurricane Helene, ExplainedBy Molly Bohannon

It is well documented that the Tampa Bay area is extremely vulnerable to hurricanes and that the region has also dodged major hurricanes over the last century.

It is far too early for residents around Tampa Bay to breathe a sigh of relief, but Hurricane Milton wobbled farther south than expected Tuesday, leading to a southern shift in the forecast from the National Hurricane Center.

Meteorologists usually stress not to focus on the exact track and to not even focus on the cone, because significant impacts always occur outside of the cone. In fact, the cone from the National Hurricane Center is only designed to capture the path of the storm two-thirds of the time. That means that one in three times the storm’s track falls outside of the cone. However, that exact track is very important when it comes to the details of the impacts.

The worst storm surge in Hurricane Milton is forecast to be near the landfall point and to the south, based on the angle it is approaching the coast. If the current trajectories showing a path toward Sarasota hold true, the worst storm surge would be into places like Sarasota, Venice and southward into surge-vulnerable places like Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda. On the northern side of the storm, winds across Tampa Bay would largely push water out of the bay, potentially even reducing the water levels as happened during Hurricane Ian, which made landfall near Fort Myers in 2022.

This current trajectory is only about 40 miles south of Tampa or 20 miles south of the mouth of Tampa Bay, and the NHC warns that uncertainty remains and additional wobbles – north or south – are possible. It is also very important to note that Tampa is still within the cone of uncertainty.

Even with a potential track south of Tampa, which would spare that area the worst of the surge, there is still a significant risk of catastrophic hurricane-force winds and flooding rain. Hurricane Milton is expected to grow into a large storm as it approaches landfall, and much of the Florida Peninsula will experience the wrath of the storm.

TAMPA, Fla. — Millions in Florida are bracing for a potentially catastrophic punch from major Hurricane Milton, which threatens a historically deep and dangerous storm surge to a large swath of Florida’s west coast along with wind gusts well over 100 mph when the storm strikes Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Milton regained Category 5 strength Tuesday evening, a day after becoming among the strongest hurricanes on record in the Atlantic basin. When it reaches the Florida coast, it is still forecast to be a major hurricane.

TRACKING HURRICANE MILTON: FORECAST CONE, SPAGHETTI MODELS, LIVE RADAR AND MORE

“It’s worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation,” the National Hurricane Center warned on Tuesday. “Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.”

State officials have been scrambling since Monday to get millions off vulnerable coastlines in what is described as the largest mass evacuation in Florida since Hurricane Irma in 2017.  Storm surge forecasts along the central western coast are predicting 10–15 feet of water topped with devastating waves driven by hurricane-force winds. Those levels — significantly higher than the damage wrought just last month by Hurricane Helene — would surpass anything seen in over a century in the Tampa Bay area.

“Yes, you might have ‘been through hurricanes before,’” FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said. “But you weren’t through the 1921 storm that put water over much of Pinellas County, or the 1848 hurricane that put 15 feet of Gulf water where downtown Tampa is today.” 

The Florida National Guard has mobilized 5,000 troops to assist with the response, with an additional 3,000 expected to be deployed before the storm makes landfall. The Florida Department of Transportation opened the shoulders on Interstate 4 and Interstate 75 going north to help speed up evacuations, and tolls have been suspended.

“Before Hurricane Ian hit Southwest Florida, some people got confused, ended up making terrible decisions, and died, Norcross said. “Don’t let that happen to you.”

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a State of Emergency over the weekend for 51 of the state’s 67 counties, and on Monday, President Joe Biden approved the state’s pre-landfall emergency declaration request.

HURRICANE MILTON’S WINDS COULD RAM CONSTRUCTION CRANES INTO DOWNTOWN ST. PETE BUILDINGS

Shelters have started opening and the state has partnered with Uber to provide residents with free rides to and from shelters for those trying to escape Milton’s eventual wrath. To the north, Atlanta Motor Speedway said it was opening its campgrounds free of charge to evacuated Florida residents.

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On Tuesday, the first evacuations were ordered on Florida’s east coast in St. John’s County, including St. Augustine Beach. The county will experience a storm surge from the backside of Milton as it barrels across the state. 

Devastating winds to tear across the heart of the state

Aside from the life-threatening storm surge, Milton is forecast to bring wind speeds well over 100 mph around the eyewall where the hurricane makes landfall. That includes the Tampa area, which has potential wind gusts over 95 mph or more at landfall.

Milton Wind Threat

(FOX Weather)

But even after landfall, damaging winds are expected to track across the central Florida Peninsula. Milton is forecast to maintain hurricane strength even through its trek along the Atlantic coast, with Hurricane Warnings covering 11 million including the Orlando area and along the east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach.

‘MAJOR GLOBAL EVENT’: MILTON COULD BE WESTERN FLORIDA’S HURRICANE KATRINA, SUPPLY CHAIN EXPERT WARNS

Storm surge will also be felt along the Atlantic coast of Florida from the Space Coast to the First Coast. This includes cities such as Daytona Beach, St. Augustine and Jacksonville Beach. 

Rainfall totals will reach 8-12 inches along Milton’s path with isolated totals reaching 18 inches. And Milton will present a threat of scattered tornadoes even ahead of landfall.  

Schools, airports, theme parks close

As Floridians hunker down to ride out the storm, widespread closures of businesses, schools and travel hubs are common.

Tampa International Airport (TPA) suspended operations on Tuesday morning, while Orlando International Airport (MCO), Orlando Sanford International Airport (SFB) in Sanford,  Southwest Florida International Airport (RSW) in Fort Myers, and Melbourne Orlando International Airport (MLB) in Melbourne will close to commercial flights starting on Wednesday.

Schools and universities across much of the state shuttered classes through at least Thursday.  Disney Parks, Universal Studios, and SeaWorld are among the theme parks announcing they will close for Milton.

Kennedy Space Center’s visitor complex is closed through Thursday.

Race against the clock

Along central Florida’s western beaches, scars still linger from Hurricane Helene which less than two weeks ago slammed the region as a Category 3 storm with feet of storm surge and hurricane-force winds on its way to the Big Bend area.  

Piles of debris line sidewalks as reminders of the first hurricane’s destruction, now threatening to become airborne missiles in triple-digit winds or powerful debris floating atop an even higher storm surge.

HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER ON TV

Tuesday, an army of dump trucks and bulldozers rolled into neighborhoods to try and scrape as much of the piles of debris as possible, but the task is daunting.

“Literally hundreds of blocks that have been decimated,” FOX Weather Storm Specialist Mike Seidel reported from Madeira Beach in Pinellas County, Florida. “They’ve done about a block (of cleanup)… in about 45 minutes to an hour or so. There’s blocks and blocks of this, and we’re running out of time before the weather goes downhill later (Wednesday), certainly (Wednesday) night.”

Seidel estimated that the city would need another two weeks to clear all the mountains of debris. “But we don’t have that. We don’t have that luxury,” he said. “Just back to back here from Helene into Milton here in Pinellas County.”