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Florida's Real Estate Market Has a Split Personality: What To Know If You're Buying or Selling in the Sunshine State

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Florida's Real Estate Market Has a Split Personality: What To Know If You're Buying or Selling in the Sunshine State


Florida’s housing market is a tale of two states. On the coast, condo prices are falling with residents being driven out by high insurance costs and assessment fees, while inland, the cost of single-family homes is holding steady.

Local experts say this divergence is driven by soaring insurance premiums and rising assessment fees under new state regulations, which have significantly affected condo owners.

“I am feeling a major slowdown in the market,” says Realtor.com® senior economist Joel Berner. “I feel like it’s a buyer’s market right now, unless the house is perfect and perfectly priced.”

After years of demand and robust equity gains, Florida’s housing market is changing—but it might not be on a downturn. Realtor.com has analyzed the data to provide insights into the current state of Florida’s housing market.

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The cost of single-family homes inland is holding steady.

(Getty Images)

Why the fuss over Florida?

Florida is the biggest housing market in the country, with the most homes for sale. Despite California having almost twice as many residents, Florida has nearly double the number of home listings in any given year, accounting for about 1 out of every 8 listings in the U.S.

“Florida remains a bellwether state,” Jenny Lenz, the managing director of Dolly Lenz Real Estate in Naples, FL, says of the state’s reputation. “Consistently attracting people from around the globe due to its significant tax advantages, perfect weather, and booming economy.”

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Housing stock has been on a tear in Florida since early 2022, and especially over the past year. In recent months, the number of homes for sale is up 50% compared with the same time in 2023, and that’s after inventory rose by around 30% the year before. Instead of a winter dip in homes hitting the market this past year, they just kept piling up.

This means, in 2024, Florida listings made up about 1 out of every 5 in the U.S.

That surge in listings has led to falling home prices, especially in some Southern Florida markets.

More than one market

Florida is a large and diverse state, and that’s certainly reflected in its various housing markets.

The main distinction: Single-family homes—which are mostly found inland—are experiencing stable market conditions. In contrast, there’s turbulence in the state’s vast condominium market, with inventory surges and a concentration of price reductions.

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The reason for the divergence, according to local experts, is two-fold.

First, rising insurance premiums in Florida are squeezing the condo segment, according to Lindsey Johnson, a Realtor® with Keller Williams in Gainesville.

“Insurance is a massive factor right now in the state of Florida, especially for some of those southern lower coastal areas,” Johnson says. “The insurance rates are going up a lot.”

Recent studies found Florida to be among the most expensive states for home insurance, with more rising premium costs expected.

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But just as important is the continuing fallout from the deadly collapse of Miami’s Surfside condominium building in June 2021, says Jennifer Levin, a Realtor with Compass in Fort Lauderdale.

In the wake of the disaster, which killed 98 people, new state laws have been put in place to attempt to prevent the same thing from happening again. But the measures come with steep costs to cover additional inspections and new condo-owner association reserve fund requirements.

“The big pullback in the market is in the condo market because of the rising insurance costs and new laws that require buildings to have full reserves by next year,” Levin explains. “Prices are pulling back, because nobody can afford the association fees anymore.”

Champlain Towers South Condo in SurfsideChamplain Towers South Condo in Surfside
In the wake of the deadly collapse of Miami’s Surfside condominium building, which killed 98 people, new state laws have been put in place to attempt to prevent the same thing from happening again.

(David Santiago/Miami Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

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Some condo owners, Levin says, are facing assessments that can add up to more than $100,000, in the case that a condo building needs newly required maintenance and additional reserve funds.

It’s a combination of conditions that’s sapping value from the condo market, local real estate experts agree.

Condo prices are down around 12% since the peak of demand in 2022, while single-family homes are roughly even compared with the same time. In fact, there’s been a year-over-year decline in condo prices, but single-family home prices are now on the upswing—even if they’re not seeing the kinds of COVID-19 pandemic-driven increases like they did in 2020 and 2021.

The same divergent trends appear when separating coastal areas from noncoastal areas. In Florida ZIP codes that touch the coast, list prices are down year over year, by 1.3% on average. In noncoastal ZIP codes, prices are up 2% on average.

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And for properties with a “beach” designation in the listing, the time spent on the market has been growing faster than for single-family homes. Whereas “beach” listings and “non-beach” listings were selling in almost the same amount of time during the peak of the pandemic demand surge, now properties near the beach take about eight days longer to sell—and that gap has been widening.

Experts say sellers of these kinds of homes need to adjust their strategies.

“A lot of sellers are still unrealistic. They’re still living in 2022, and they just can’t get over it,” Berner says. “If a house is on the market for six months, that says that the seller’s expectation is unreasonable.”

 

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Southern stagnation, northern growth

There’s also a meaningful difference between the southern and northern ends of this peninsula. In general, the upper half of the state is more affordable, leading to persistent demand and stabilized prices. And South Floridians have caught on.

“There’s a migration from Dade and Broward County to Palm Beach County,” Levin says.

Amy Simmonds, a Realtor and the principal of The Simmonds Team Compass in Palm Beach, sees it plainly, too. Folks are moving north, she says, trading pricey, big cities for smaller, cheaper communities.

“They’re cashing out in Miami and buying a brand-new, adorable little house in Port St. Lucie for $600,000,” she says.

Florida’s fate

“We continue to see strong sales and high demand for quality products in prime locations,” Lenz says, characterizing the current state of Florida’s market as a “shift toward a more balanced and healthier average.”

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But what happens next will depend largely on mortgage rates, which are expected to drop later this year. If and when that happens, experts predict Florida’s housing market will send fewer mixed signals.

“If interest rates magically plummeted tomorrow,” Johnson says, “this market would take off again.”





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Florida

Gasparilla Bowl another chance for Florida football offense to grow under freshman QB DJ Lagway

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Gasparilla Bowl another chance for Florida football offense to grow under freshman QB DJ Lagway


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TAMPA ― Each game presents another step in the growth of Florida football freshman quarterback DJ Lagway.

When the Florida Gators face Tulane in the Gasparilla Bowl on Friday at Raymond James Stadium (3:30 p.m., ESPN2), it’ll be another chance for the 6-foot-3, 239-pound Lagway to command an improving UF offense.

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Call it a final exam for Lagway, who improved to 5-1 as a starter after leading the Gators to a 31-11 win over FSU to close the regular season in his last start on Nov. 30.

“We were a little rusty the last go-around, so I do think there’s another level there,” Florida football coach Billy Napier said. “But you know balance, good situational football and then obviously keep DJ clean and play well around him, we’ve got to get good play in every position around him, so, we know what winning football looks like that’s what we’re going to do.”

Lagway went 14 for 22 for 133 yards with two TDs and an interception in his last outing against the Seminoles but was victimized by a few drops on an unseasonably cold night.

“Playing quarterback is sometimes like playing golf,” Florida co-offensive coordinator and tight ends coach Russ Callaway said. “Every now and then you’re going to hit a bad shot, and sometimes when you move maybe your feet are not quite on balance the way they’re supposed to be.

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“Yeah, we’ve done a really good job of preparing this bowl prep of pocket movement, and he already does that anyway, but it’s one of those things it wasn’t his best in that area but he’s been really good throughout the course of the year and he’s only going to continue to get better.”

Why DJ Lagway has excelled as the Florida football starting QB

From Lagway’s first career start against Samford, when he connected on six pass plays of 30 yards or more, he’s demonstrated the ability to throw deep balls with accuracy. Enrolling in January helped Lagway learn the intricacies of playing quarterback at the college level. Napier said Lagway has grown immeasurably in that area.

“He’s a more advanced player,” Napier said. “He understands, fronts, pressures, coverages, how his concept marries up to what defensive concept we’re getting, just kind of knows the problems and can kind of get ahead of that.”

Callaway said Lagway’s football IQ allowed the staff to feel comfortable expanding the playbook as the season progressed.

“He’s one of the rare guys at an early age has been hungry and has this laser-like focus and knows what he wants to accomplish,” Callaway said. “He doesn’t just talk about it, he does it.”

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An example, Callaway said, is the time Lagway spends at the Heavener Center, studying film.

“You’ll go up there multiple times throughout the weekend, early in the morning, late at night, you’re not surprised to see that guy up there,” Callaway said. “That’s why he’s having success.”

How the Florida football offense can evolve under DJ Lagway

Callaway said the key is to continue to play to Lagway’s strengths. When Lagway suffered a hamstring pull against Georgia that forced him to sit out the following game against Texas, it limited his dual-threat ability for the remainder of the regular season. But with more time to heal, it’s an aspect of his game that he could either showcase against Tulane or keep under wraps for his sophomore season.

“He’s exceeded our expectations, not just from a physical standpoint but from a mental standpoint,” Callaway said. “His strengths are obviously the deep ball accuracy. He can move with his legs, he has been incredible in the pocket so we’ve got to do a good job of setting up the run, mix in movements every now and then with him and let him throw it deep when we’ve got one-on-one and hopefully our guys can come down with it.”

As to whether Florida could open up the offense with four or five-wide receiver formations with Lagway in the future, Callaway said: “It’s something we can definitely do. Again, I think it goes back to the best 11 that you’ve got, the best 11, if it’s four tight ends, if it’s four wide receivers, whoever it is it’s your job as an offensive coach to get the best 11 on the field and get the guys who make plays consistently, get them the ball.”

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With All-American center Jake Slaughter and left tackle Austin Barber announcing their decisions to return to UF next season, Florida will boast an experienced offensive line with four returning starters to protect Lagway and help establish the run.

“DJ is a very good player and we’ve got veteran guys coming back,” Barber said. “He’s had a year under his belt with him growing and developing. I’m just really excited about that.”

Kevin Brockway is The Gainesville Sun’s Florida beat writer. Contact him at kbrockway@gannett.com. Follow him on X @KevinBrockwayG1



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Former Florida edge commits to Alabama in transfer portal

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Former Florida edge commits to Alabama in transfer portal


Alabama football landed a transfer portal commitment at a position of need on Tuesday. Edge rusher Kelby Collins committed to the Crimson Tide, after beginning his college career at Florida.

Collins shared the news to his social media accounts, in conjunction with Hayes Fawcett of On3.

Collins commitment means the Gardendale product will return to his home state. He considered UA out of high school in the class of 2023, but instead opted to join the Gators.

He’ll help out at a position where Alabama is currently a bit thin. Que Robinson, whose 2024 season ended prematurely due to an injury, is out of eligibility, and the Tide already lost Keanu Koht to the transfer portal, so another hand to help out in the pass rush was a key portal target.

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Collins started out as an edge at Florida, making 23 total tackles with 1.5 sacks as a depth piece. His efforts in 2023 earned him freshman All-SEC honors.

However, a position switch for the 2024 season saw him buried on the Gator depth chart. Collins moved to three-technique end role, and only totaled six tackles during the 2024 season, with all of them coming against Mississippi State.

The 247Sports composite ranked Collins as a four-star portal prospect after he entered. He was a three-star recruiting out of high school at Gardendale.

Collins is listed at 6-foot-4, 278 pounds. He was 265 pounds coming out of high school.

The transfer portal is currently open for undergraduate entry until Dec. 28. Alabama players will receive an extra window following its season-ending appearance in the Dec. 31 ReliaQuest Bowl.

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About 3 dozen high-rise buildings in South Florida are sinking

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About 3 dozen high-rise buildings in South Florida are sinking


SUNNY ISLES BEACH, Fla. — Almost three dozen high-rise condos and luxury hotels along the beach in South Florida are sinking or settling in unexpected ways, in some cases because of nearby construction, according to a new study.

The 35 buildings surveyed along an almost 12-mile (19 kilometer) stretch from Miami Beach to Sunny Isles Beach have sunk or settled by 0.8 to 3.1 inches (2 to 8 cm). About half of the buildings are less than a decade old, according to scientists at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science. The study was published Friday.

“The discovery of the extent of subsidence hotspots along the South Florida coastline was unexpected,” Farzaneh Aziz Zanjani, the lead author, said in a statement. “The study underscores the need for ongoing monitoring and a deeper understanding of the long-term implications for these structures.”

It’s not uncommon for buildings to sink a little during and soon after construction, but the scientists called their discovery surprising because some of the changes took place several years later.

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Limestone under the South Florida beach is interspersed with layers of sand, which can shift under the weight of high-rises and as a result of vibrations from foundation construction. Tidal flows also play a role. The study used satellite images to capture the changes, with settling most noticeable in buildings in Sunny Isles Beach. The scientists said preliminary data also suggests sinking or settling further north, along the beaches of Broward and Palm Beach counties.

The stretch of South Florida communities surveyed included Surfside, where the Champlain Towers South building collapsed in June 2021, killing 98 people. However, that collapse is thought to have been caused by reinforced concrete that deteriorated due to poor maintenance and flawed design.

Still, the Surfside catastrophe highlighted the need to monitor building stability “especially in coastal areas with corrosive environmental conditions,” the scientists said.



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