TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Republican Sen. Rick Scott is set to place roughly $10 million in new TV ads in the homestretch of a Florida Senate race that he is widely seen as leading but that Democrats have continued to make noise in.

The Scott TV buy, first shared with NBC News, will focus mostly on the Tampa, Orlando and Miami media markets, with spot buys in other parts of the state, according to campaign advisers.

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He is running against former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who has been massively outspent but is getting some national help from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in the race’s final weeks.

The DSCC has pledged a “multimillion” dollar effort to help Mucarsel-Powell, Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried announced Monday in a call with reporters. She was unable to provide a specific figure, and the DSCC declined to offer one. Last week, it said in a release that it was making a multimillion-dollar TV buy in both Florida in Texas but did not disclose specifics.

“That money is coming at the right time, and we are going to use it to make sure that we are building the infrastructure to get Debbie Mucarsel-Powell over the finish line [and] retire Rick Scott,” Fried said.

Regardless of whatever national money comes for Democrats, Scott will no doubt hold his long-running huge cash advantage. Scott has spent at least $8 million of his personal wealth, and the $10 million media buy is as much as Mucarsel-Powell’s campaign had spent total throughout the end of July. Scott’s campaign spent $20 million during that same time, according to the most recently available campaign finance reports.

“Our campaign has taken this race seriously from the beginning. We are in a strong position and keeping our feet on the gas through the end,” Scott adviser Chris Hartline said.

The race itself has been a bit off the national radar, as Florida is increasingly seen as a Republican stronghold. But Democrats have placed thousands of volunteers across the state and maintained consistent messaging framing Scott as “in trouble,” highlighting what has long been Scott’s relatively low approval rating for a politician who has never lost a statewide campaign in Florida.

“It’s no surprise that polling shows this race tied — Floridians know that Rick Scott is far too extreme for our state,” Mucarsel-Powell said. “For 14 years Rick Scott has ruthlessly attacked our freedoms, hard-earned benefits and economic opportunities. He has cut funding for our education, our veterans and our coastal communities as our state continues to face the effects of extreme weather, climate change and an affordability crisis that began under his watch.”

Scott has generally run like an incumbent who expects to win. He has not debated Mucarsel-Powell and has focused on her less than she has on him — a common tactic for a candidate who thinks they are winning. His most consistent message has painted Mucarsel-Powell as “an open borders socialist.”

Public polling in the race has generally had Scott on top, but not by huge margins. He has been up anywhere from the high single digits to only a handful of percentage points. Because the race has been so close on paper, it has fueled Democrats’ message that it is up for grabs.

New polling shared with NBC News from the GOP polling firm Tyson Group has Scott up 46-38, with 12% unsure, an 8-point margin that is among the biggest polling gaps of the election cycle.

Hartline, the Scott adviser, said it’s margins like that that have them unconcerned even if national money does flow into the race.

“National Democrats can flirt with spending in Florida if they want and risk losing incumbent races,” he said. “We will have a big win either way.”

HORSESHOE BEACH, Fla. — It was just a month ago that Brooke Hiers left the state-issued emergency trailer where her family had lived since Hurricane Idalia slammed into her Gulf Coast fishing village of Horseshoe Beach in August 2023.

Hiers and her husband Clint were still finishing the electrical work in the home they painstakingly rebuilt themselves, wiping out Clint’s savings to do so. They never will finish that wiring job.

Hurricane Helene blew their newly renovated home off its four foot-high pilings, sending it floating into the neighbor’s yard next door.

“You always think, ‘Oh, there’s no way it can happen again’,” Hiers said. “I don’t know if anybody’s ever experienced this in the history of hurricanes.”

For the third time in 13 months, this windswept stretch of Florida’s Big Bend took a direct hit from a hurricane — a one-two-three punch to a 50-mile (80-kilometer) sliver of the state’s more than 8,400 miles (13,500 kilometers) of coastline, first by Idalia, then Category 1 Hurricane Debby in August 2024 and now Helene.

Hiers, who sits on Horseshoe Beach’s town council, said words like “unbelievable” are beginning to lose their meaning.

“I’ve tried to use them all. Catastrophic. Devastating. Heartbreaking … none of that explains what happened here,” Hiers said.

The back-to-back hits to Florida’s Big Bend are forcing residents to reckon with the true costs of living in an area under siege by storms that researchers say are becoming stronger because of climate change.

The Hiers, like many others here, can’t afford homeowner’s insurance on their flood-prone houses, even if it was available. Residents who have watched their life savings get washed away multiple times are left with few choices — leave the communities where their families have lived for generations, pay tens of thousands of dollars to rebuild their houses on stilts as building codes require, or move into a recreational vehicle they can drive out of harm’s way.

That’s if they can afford any of those things. The storm left many residents bunking with family or friends, sleeping in their cars, or sheltering in what’s left of their collapsing homes.

Janalea England wasn’t waiting for outside organizations to get aid to her friends and neighbors, turning her commercial fish market in the river town of Steinhatchee into a pop-up donation distribution center, just like she did after Hurricane Idalia. A row of folding tables was stacked with water, canned food, diapers, soap, clothes and shoes, a steady stream of residents coming and going.

“I’ve never seen so many people homeless as what I have right now. Not in my community,” England said. “They have nowhere to go.”

The sparsely populated Big Bend is known for its towering pine forests and pristine salt marshes that disappear into the horizon, a remote stretch of largely undeveloped coastline that’s mostly dodged the crush of condos, golf courses and souvenir strip malls that has carved up so much of the Sunshine State.

This is a place where teachers, mill workers and housekeepers could still afford to live within walking distance of the Gulf’s white sand beaches. Or at least they used to, until a third successive hurricane blew their homes apart.

Helene was so destructive, many residents don’t have a home left to clean up, escaping the storm with little more than the clothes on their backs, even losing their shoes to the surging tides.

“People didn’t even have a Christmas ornament to pick up or a plate from their kitchen,” Hiers said. “It was just gone.”

In a place where people are trying to get away from what they see as government interference, England, who organized her own donation site, isn’t putting her faith in government agencies and insurance companies.

“FEMA didn’t do much,” she said. “They lost everything with Idalia and they were told, ‘here, you can have a loan.’ I mean, where’s our tax money going then?”

England’s sister, Lorraine Davis, got a letter in the mail just days before Helene hit declaring that her insurance company was dropping her, with no explanation other than her home “fails to meet underwriting”.

Living on a fixed income, Davis has no idea how she’ll repair the long cracks that opened up in the ceiling of her trailer after the last storm.

“We’ll all be on our own,” England said. “We’re used to it.”

In the surreal aftermath of this third hurricane, some residents don’t have the strength to clean up their homes again, not with other storms still brewing in the Gulf.

With marinas washed away, restaurants collapsed and vacation homes blown apart, many commercial fishermen, servers and housecleaners lost their homes and their jobs on the same day.

Those who worked at the local sawmill and paper mill, two bedrock employers in the area, were laid off in the past year too. Now a convoy of semi-trucks full of hurricane relief supplies have set up camp at the shuttered mill in the city of Perry.

Hud Lilliott was a mill worker for 28 years, before losing his job and now his canal-front home in Dekle Beach, just down the street from the house where he grew up.

Lilliott and his wife Laurie hope to rebuild their house there, but they don’t know how they’ll pay for it. And they’re worried the school in Steinhatchee where Laurie teaches first grade could become another casualty of the storm, as the county watches its tax base float away.

“We’ve worked our whole lives and we’re so close to where they say the ‘golden years’,” Laurie said. “It’s like you can see the light and it all goes dark.”

Dave Beamer rebuilt his home in Steinhatchee after it was “totaled” by Hurricane Idalia, only to see it washed into the marsh a year later.

“I don’t think I can do that again,” Beamer said. “Everybody’s changing their mind about how we’re going to live here.”

A waterlogged clock in a shed nearby shows the moment when time stopped, marking before Helene and after.

Beamer plans to stay in this river town, but put his home on wheels — buying a camper and building a pole barn to park it under.

In Horseshoe Beach, Hiers is waiting for a makeshift town hall to be delivered in the coming days, a double-wide trailer where they’ll offer what services they can for as long as they can. She and her husband are staying with their daughter, a 45-minute drive away.

“You feel like this could be the end of things as you knew it. Of your town. Of your community,” Hiers said. “We just don’t even know how to recover at this point.”

Hiers said she and her husband will probably buy an RV and park it where their home once stood. But they won’t be moving back to Horseshoe Beach for good until this year’s storms are done. They can’t bear to do this again.

___ Kate Payne is a corps member for The Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative. Report for America is a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on undercovered issues.

1. Lane Kiffin: There’s no stopping the what-if train

So here we are, in a sport that refuses to live in the now because the future is so undeniably delicious, and the Lane Kiffin to Florida dating game has officially begun.

Lane and Florida sitting in a tree, k-i-s-s-i-n-g. First comes a firing, then comes a hiring, then comes Kiffin …

“All of a sudden, our program isn’t terrible,” Kiffin said last weekend in defense of his Ole Miss team after the then-Top 10 Rebels lost at home to Kentucky as a double-digit favorite ― and kicked off the inevitable Florida and Kiffin chase.

Deny it all you want, everyone. This shotgun marriage now has momentum.

Before we go further, Kiffin is absolutely right. The idea that Ole Miss is a fraud, or got exposed or can’t win a big game because of one bad Saturday is wildly shortsighted.

But there’s no chance that’s stopping this train of what-if. If anything, it enhanced it.

It’s all about timing now, and how one more Ole Miss loss sets everything in motion.

The Florida program, once a beacon for all things opulence and arrogance, is a shadow of its former championship self. Gators coach Billy Napier is another discombobulated, dysfunctional loss away from getting tossed on the scrap heap of Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain and Dan Mullen.

It’s the worst kept secret in college football.

Florida, with every possible advantage to win big, hasn’t done it since Urban Meyer arrived in Gainesville nearly two decades ago and road roughshod over college football with a six-year iron fist that was equal parts remarkable and repulsive.

Then there’s Kiffin, whose coaching career began in 2009 at Tennessee just as Meyer’s run at Florida – and the Gators’ perch on the top of the college football mountain – was starting to fade.

Kiffin began his one-year run at Tennessee by accusing Meyer of NCAA recruiting violations, and then committed multiple violations himself over an 11-month span as the Vols coach before leaving for his dream job at Southern California.

If ever a coach and a program were destined for each other, this is it.

2. Florida’s coaching folly

Let’s dissect Florida’s coaching hires since Meyer skulked out of town after the 2010 season, shall we?

Muschamp: Elite defensive coach and recruiter, couldn’t find/develop a quarterback.

McElwain: Nick Saban assistant, and an expert fisherman.

Mullen: Elite offensive mind, disinterested recruiter.

Meanwhile, the program fell behind in the facilities arms race, and waited a decade before getting serious about spending money because Steve Spurrier and Meyer won national titles without bells and whistles, why can’t everyone else?

Then Napier arrived and was given everything he could possibly want. A new $60 million football facility, and a support staff of 40-plus covering every possible contingency – except the one that mattered most.

What if Napier wasn’t ready for the job?

Now it’s time to hire a true ball coach. One with a track record of recruiting and developing players, who will work the talent-rich state of Florida and organically build a roster into a championship-level team.

Forget what you’ve heard about Kiffin from years past. He made mistakes, who doesn’t?

AT THE END: It’s time for Florida to bid goodbye to Billy Napier

He’s not the carnival barker at Tennessee, or the overwhelmed coach in an untenable situation following Pete Carroll at USC (without 30 scholarships because of NCAA sanctions), or even the unpredictable yet brilliant offensive mind Saban tolerated at Alabama.

He has become a legit ball coach, in every facet of the position.

He has double-digit win seasons (plural) at Ole Miss, including a school-record 11 victories in 2023. He’s as good a quarterback coach/developer and play caller as there is in the game.

Now imagine him recruiting in the state of Florida. Or better yet, coaching Gators talented freshman quarterback DJ Lagway.

3. Chasing Kiffin, The Epilogue

The Kentucky loss isn’t a deal-breaker for the Ole Miss season, but it brings Kffin and the Rebels one loss closer to missing the College Football Playoff. That’s the key to this potential Florida and Kiffin marriage.

Timing is everything.

If Ole Miss is in the playoff, it will be difficult for Kiffin to walk away – and for Florida to wait. If Ole Miss doesn’t advance to the CFP, Florida can hire him the day after the field is set.

We can debate about whether Florida will pay what it takes to get Kiffin (likely $11-12 million a year), and if it’s serious about escaping the college football hinterlands and avoiding the SEC freefall to the depths of Mississippi State and Vanderbilt.

But there is no debate about job value.

Kiffin’s own success at Ole Miss has moved expectations to the level of Florida. In other words, no matter where he coaches, the bar is the CFP and winning it all.

He could coach Ole Miss, and annually rummage through the transfer portal and hope to hit more times than not. Or he could leave for Florida, and recruit and develop from one of the three most talent-rich states for high school football – and add a few impact players from the portal.

Deny it all you want, the fuse has been lit on this looming shotgun marriage.

It’s only a matter of timing.

4. The Big 12: It’s not just Coach Prime

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the Big 12. Left for dead when Texas and Oklahoma escaped for the SEC, the reshuffled deck suddenly looks mighty appealing.  

Brigham Young and Iowa State are unbeaten after the first month of the season, and are two of four ranked Big 12 teams (Kansas State and Utah). Meanwhile, there’s the ACC – the other Power Four conference helplessly swirling in the wake of the SEC and Big Ten – making more noise battling its two most important television properties (Florida State, Clemson) in court.

The Big 12, in full desperation mode during conference expansion (and contraction), will play four games with playoff significance over the next two months between the top five teams in the conference: BYU at Utah, Iowa State at Utah, Kansas State at Iowa State, and Texas Tech at Iowa State.   

Those games don’t include Colorado and Arizona, who have two of the best quarterbacks (Shedeur Sanders, Noah Fafita) and wideouts (Travis Hunter, Tetairoa McMillan) in the nation, and will be a problem for everyone.

Colorado still has games against K-State, at Texas Tech and Utah, and Arizona plays Texas Tech and at BYU.

The Big 12 may not have major television properties, but its games over the final two months of the regular season will be better than anything the ACC can produce.    

CALM DOWN: Georgia, Milroe lead college football Week 5 overreactions

5. The Weekly Five

The top five transfer portal quarterback performances after the first month of the season:

1. Cam Ward, Miami (Washington State): 1,782 yards, 18 TD, 4 INT.

2. Kyle McCord, Syracuse (Ohio State): 1,459 yards, 14 TD, 5 INT.

3. Eli Holstein, Pittsburgh (Alabama): 1,186 yards, 12 TDs, 2 INT.

4. Brandon Sorsby, Cincinnati (Indiana): 1,481 yards, 12 TD, 1 INT.

5. Tyler Shough, Louisville (Texas Tech): 1,114 yards, 11 TD, 1 INT.

6. An NFL scout’s take: Kentucky DT Deone Walker

An NFL scout analyzes a draft eligible player. The scout requested anonymity to protect the team’s draft preparation.

“A giant of a man (6-feet-6, 350 pounds). The sheer power and ability to command double teams and wreck an interior. He’s not a slogger in there. He has an explosive first step, and his hands are heavy and active. He has edge moves; the spin he uses is devastating. A legitimate pass rusher from the interior. He could be the first interior defensive lineman picked.”   

7. Power Play: Alabama back on top

This week’s College Football Playoff Power Poll – including the first four out – and one big thing.

1. Alabama: The first half against Georgia was as good a 30-minute stretch as Alabama ever played under Saban.  

2. Ohio State: At least we’ll see the Buckeyes’ offense forced to work this week against Iowa’s stout defense.

3. Miami: A critical step for a growing team: finding a way to win a game you shouldn’t.

4. BYU: At some point, the inability to consistently run the ball (against a more difficult schedule) will be a problem.

5. Georgia: The comeback from 30-7 was crazy impressive, and may have set the tone for the rest of the season.

6. Texas: Open week gives QB Quinn Ewers better chance of playing vs. Oklahoma.

7. Tennessee: Can Vols stay focused against Arkansas and Florida to set up huge home game vs. Alabama on Oct. 19?

8. Penn State: Lions need more from QB Drew Allar in big games.

9. Missouri: Want to prove your CFP worth? Roll into College Station and beat a hot Aggies team.

10. Oregon: Can’t get a read on this team. Something is off every week.

11. Michigan: Wolverines better show that USC-level intensity, or they’ll lose after a long trip to Washington.

12. Boise State: Broncos run the ball well enough to control tempo and scare the heck out of the No. 5 seed in the playoff.

13. USC: Another trip to the Midwest, another test of USC’s toughness vs. physical Minnesota.

14. Clemson: Time to make a statement against FSU ― even if the Noles are a shadow of their 2023 self.

15. Ole Miss: The passing game is too dangerous to file away the Rebels.

16. Kansas State: Despite ugly loss to BYU, Wildcats still may be Big 12’s most complete team.

8. Mail Bonding: Texas vs. Alabama (and Georgia)

Matt: Can you explain to me how Texas, after winning by 48 and 22 points with a backup quarterback, fell behind Alabama in the polls? – Darrel Crutchfield, San Antonio.

Darrel:

Let me break this down like it has never been broken down before: because voters think Alabama is better. Especially after dissecting Georgia for 30 minutes, playing keep away, and then figuring out how to avoid blowing a 28-point lead.

College football is a glorified eye test until the CFP begins, and I can’t see how any voter came away from that epic show thinking Alabama and Georgia aren’t the two best teams in the nation.

The entire poll process is flawed from the jump, based on some inane idea that an unbeaten team is better than a team with one loss. And one loss is better than two losses, and so on.

Texas gets its shot at Georgia on Oct. 19 in Austin, and we’ll then have a better read on the Longhorns.

9. Numbers Game: Texas A&M’s QB quandary

6.73. Texas A&M coach Mike Elko says injured quarterback Conner Weigman (shoulder) could be cleared to play this week against No. 9 Missouri.

This, of course, means backup Marcel Reed – who led the Aggies to three consecutive wins and has played nearly flawless football – is on the bench. It also means Texas A&M’s most dangerous and dynamic player isn’t on the field.

Not only is Reed completing throws at a better percentage, and has six touchdown passes and no interceptions, he has rushed for 230 yards and two more touchdowns. He’s a dual threat who stresses defenses, and averages 6.73 yards every time the ball is snapped and he’s either attempting a pass (7.4 yards per attempt) or running (5.5 yards per carry).

10. The Final Word: Miami’s wakeup call

The game-winning Hail Mary that wasn’t last Friday for Virginia Tech was the best thing that could’ve happened to Miami.

Without it, the Canes are traveling 3,100 miles to Berkeley, Calif., this weekend without the scars of what almost happened, and sitting around a hotel and waiting and waiting and waiting – until 10:30 p.m. ET to play a dangerous team that has had two weeks to prepare.

This will, by far, be the best defense Ward has played all season. The Bears are No. 12 in the nation in scoring defense (12.8 ppg.), and lead the nation in interceptions (10).