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Donald Trump’s chances of losing Florida, according to polls

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Donald Trump’s chances of losing Florida, according to polls


Former President Donald Trump is the favorite to win Florida in November’s election, but the race in the Sunshine State could still be close, according to polling.

A recent survey of 600 registered voters by the Independent Center and The Bullfinch Group, conducted September 20 and 23, showed Trump had a 1-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Florida (48 percent to 47). The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The poll shows a tighter race than other Florida surveys. It was published prior to the Democratic National Committee announcing they consider Florida and its 30 Electoral College votes a “priority state that we know Democrats can win” in November. They will be investing more than $400,000 to boost Harris’ chances.

Florida was once the most vital swing state in the country, as seen when the entire 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore came down to just a few hundred votes in the state. Florida is considered to have shifted more Republican in recent years following Trump’s victories in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis also won a resounding reelection victory in 2022, beating Democrat Charlie Crist by 19 points.

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Former President Donald Trump arrives for his campaign rally at the Trump National Doral Golf Club in Doral, Florida, on July 9. Polls suggest Trump will win Florida at the 2024 election.

Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Florida will be voting in November on whether to overturn the state’s six-week abortion ban. Democrats believe having the hot topic issue of abortion access on the ballot will help them in both presidential and statewide races.

Thomas Gift, an associate professor of political science and director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, previously said that while Harris “looks likely” to lose Florida, Trump may still need to work harder to appeal to voters in the state than he would like.

“The mere fact that Trump may have to campaign vigorously in Florida could divert resources from true swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan,” Gift told Newsweek.

“Even if Harris loses Florida, which certainly looks likely, this could cost Trump elsewhere if he’s forced to devote scarce time, resources, and energy into shoring up his lead in the Sunshine State.”

Newsweek has contacted the campaign teams for Trump and Harris for comment via email.

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Other surveys beyond the Independent Center and The Bullfinch Group poll give Trump a more comfortable lead in Florida.

The former president’s current average lead over Harris in Florida is 4.1 points, according to the live tracker from 538. This is a greater margin of victory than the 3.3 points which Trump beat President Joe Biden by in 2020.

An Emerson College /The Hill poll of 815 likely voters, conducted between September 3-5, showed Trump beating Harris in Florida by 5 points (50 percent to 45). The results have a margin or error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

Trump also leads Harris in Florida by 5 points (50 percent to 45) in a Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll of 1,602 likely voters conducted September 16-19.

The most recent Morning Consult survey of 2,948 likely voters, conducted September 9-18, gave Trump a 3-point lead over Harris in Florida (50 percent to 47).

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Forecaster Race to the White House is giving Trump a 83 percent chance of victory in Florida in November’s election.



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Florida investigating AI role in mass shooting at university

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Florida investigating AI role in mass shooting at university


Florida on Tuesday announced a criminal probe into whether artificial intelligence played a role in a deadly mass shooting at a university in the US state.

The decision to launch an investigation came after prosecutors reviewed exchanges between OpenAI chatbot ChatGPT and the suspected gunman, who opened fire at Florida State University last year, according to state Attorney General James Uthmeier.

“If ChatGPT were a person, it would be facing charges for murder,” Uthmeier said.

Florida law allows anyone who assists or counsels someone in the commission of a crime to be treated as an “aider and abettor” bearing the same responsibility as the perpetrator, according to Uthmeier.

In exchanges with ChatGPT, the accused shooter sought advice on what type of gun and ammunition to use, as well as where and when on campus a lot of people would likely be found, the state attorney general said during a press briefing.

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“Last year’s mass shooting at Florida State University was a tragedy, but ChatGPT is not responsible for this terrible crime,” an OpenAI spokesperson said.



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Florida wildfire strands Amtrak passengers for over 24 hours

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Florida wildfire strands Amtrak passengers for over 24 hours


A massive wildfire in Putnam County in northern Florida left Amtrak passengers stranded on a train for more than 24 hours.

One train heading to New York City was forced to turn around, arriving back in Miami Monday night, including one passenger who said he had been on that train for about 38 hours.

He says he and other passengers were left uncertain about what was going on.

“Angry, confused, uncertain, in the dark,” said John Reardon.

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Reardon, who lives in New York City, says he boarded the train around 7 a.m. Sunday to go back home. He said around 3 p.m. Sunday, the train stopped near Jacksonville.

“Finally, after about 5 hours, they said we’re not going to New York, we’re going back to Miami,” Reardon said. “One stop at a time.”

Amtrak said for the safety of its passengers, the train couldn’t continue going north because of the fire.

“Amtrak sends a notification to the phone saying, ‘Hey, there’s an issue with the wildfire, it’s too close to the railway,’” said passenger Katrinia Wheeler.

Multiple crews are battling multiple fires in two Florida counties, leaving at least 3,000 acres burned. 

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“I saw that there was a lot of smoke coming from the woods, and then I saw the fire trucks and emergency services,” Wheeler said.

The train that left Miami at 7 a.m. on Sunday returned around 9 p.m. on Monday, leaving passengers frustrated.

Amtrak corporate says they made the decision out of safety for their customers and said customers would receive full refunds and vouchers.



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Florida Lottery Fantasy 5, Cash Pop results for April 19, 2026

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Florida Lottery Fantasy 5, Cash Pop results for April 19, 2026


The Florida Lottery offers several draw games for those hoping to win one of the available jackpots.

Here’s a look at the winning numbers for games played on Sunday, April 19, 2026.

Winning Fantasy 5 numbers from April 19 drawing

Midday: 06-09-19-34-35

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Evening: 08-09-12-25-31

Check Fantasy 5 payouts and previous drawings here.

Winning Cash Pop numbers from April 19 drawing

Morning: 03

Matinee: 08

Afternoon: 04

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Evening: 01

Late Night: 07

Check Cash Pop payouts and previous drawings here.

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Powerball, Mega Millions jackpots: What to know in case you win

Here’s what to know in case you win the Powerball or Mega Millions jackpot.

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Just the FAQs, USA TODAY

Winning Pick 2 numbers from April 19 drawing

Midday: 4-0, FB: 3

Evening: 0-6, FB: 6

Check Pick 2 payouts and previous drawings here.

Winning Pick 3 numbers from April 19 drawing

Midday: 2-9-1, FB: 3

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Evening: 3-7-0, FB: 6

Check Pick 3 payouts and previous drawings here.

Winning Pick 4 numbers from April 19 drawing

Midday: 9-7-8-0, FB: 3

Evening: 3-6-7-8, FB: 6

Check Pick 4 payouts and previous drawings here.

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Winning Pick 5 numbers from April 19 drawing

Midday: 3-9-3-5-1, FB: 3

Evening: 1-3-1-8-7, FB: 6

Check Pick 5 payouts and previous drawings here.

Where can you buy Florida Lottery tickets?

Tickets can be purchased in person at any authorized retailer throughout Florida, including gas stations, convenience stores and grocery stores. To find a retailer near you, go to Find Florida Lottery Retailers.

Feeling lucky? Explore the latest lottery news & results

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Are you a winner? Here’s how to claim your prize

  • Prizes of $599 or less: Claim at any authorized Florida Lottery retailer or Florida Lottery district office.
  • Prizes for $600 to $1 million: Must be claimed in person at any Florida Lottery district office for games that do not offer an annual payment option.
  • Prizes greater than $1 million and all prizes with an annual payment option: Must be claimed at Florida Lottery headquarters, except Mega Millions and Powerball prizes, which can be claimed at any Florida Lottery district office.

You also can claim your winnings by mail if the prize is $250,000 or less. Mail your ticket to the Florida Lottery with the required documentation.

Florida law requires public disclosure of winners

If you’re a winner, Florida law mandates the following information is public record:

  • Full name
  • City of residence
  • Game won
  • Date won
  • Amount won
  • Name and location of the retailer where the winning ticket was purchased.

When are the Florida Lottery drawings held?

  • Powerball: 10:59 p.m. Monday, Wednesday and Saturday.
  • Mega Millions: 11 p.m. Tuesday and Friday.
  • Florida Lotto: 11:15 p.m. Wednesday and Saturday.
  • Jackpot Triple Play: 11:15 p.m. Tuesday and Friday.
  • Fantasy 5: Daily at 1:05 p.m. and 11:15 p.m.
  • Cash Pop: Daily at 8:45 a.m., 11:45 a.m., 2:45 p.m., 6:45 p.m. and 11:45 p.m.
  • Pick 2, 3, 4, 5: Daily at 1:30 p.m. and 9:45 p.m.

This results page was generated automatically using information from TinBu and a template written and reviewed by a Florida digital producer. You can send feedback using this form.



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