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Donald Trump’s chances of losing Florida, according to polls

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Donald Trump’s chances of losing Florida, according to polls


Former President Donald Trump is the favorite to win Florida in November’s election, but the race in the Sunshine State could still be close, according to polling.

A recent survey of 600 registered voters by the Independent Center and The Bullfinch Group, conducted September 20 and 23, showed Trump had a 1-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Florida (48 percent to 47). The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The poll shows a tighter race than other Florida surveys. It was published prior to the Democratic National Committee announcing they consider Florida and its 30 Electoral College votes a “priority state that we know Democrats can win” in November. They will be investing more than $400,000 to boost Harris’ chances.

Florida was once the most vital swing state in the country, as seen when the entire 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore came down to just a few hundred votes in the state. Florida is considered to have shifted more Republican in recent years following Trump’s victories in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis also won a resounding reelection victory in 2022, beating Democrat Charlie Crist by 19 points.

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Former President Donald Trump arrives for his campaign rally at the Trump National Doral Golf Club in Doral, Florida, on July 9. Polls suggest Trump will win Florida at the 2024 election.

Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Florida will be voting in November on whether to overturn the state’s six-week abortion ban. Democrats believe having the hot topic issue of abortion access on the ballot will help them in both presidential and statewide races.

Thomas Gift, an associate professor of political science and director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, previously said that while Harris “looks likely” to lose Florida, Trump may still need to work harder to appeal to voters in the state than he would like.

“The mere fact that Trump may have to campaign vigorously in Florida could divert resources from true swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan,” Gift told Newsweek.

“Even if Harris loses Florida, which certainly looks likely, this could cost Trump elsewhere if he’s forced to devote scarce time, resources, and energy into shoring up his lead in the Sunshine State.”

Newsweek has contacted the campaign teams for Trump and Harris for comment via email.

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Other surveys beyond the Independent Center and The Bullfinch Group poll give Trump a more comfortable lead in Florida.

The former president’s current average lead over Harris in Florida is 4.1 points, according to the live tracker from 538. This is a greater margin of victory than the 3.3 points which Trump beat President Joe Biden by in 2020.

An Emerson College /The Hill poll of 815 likely voters, conducted between September 3-5, showed Trump beating Harris in Florida by 5 points (50 percent to 45). The results have a margin or error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

Trump also leads Harris in Florida by 5 points (50 percent to 45) in a Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll of 1,602 likely voters conducted September 16-19.

The most recent Morning Consult survey of 2,948 likely voters, conducted September 9-18, gave Trump a 3-point lead over Harris in Florida (50 percent to 47).

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Forecaster Race to the White House is giving Trump a 83 percent chance of victory in Florida in November’s election.



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Florida football finalizes hire of Joe Craddock as quarterbacks coach

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Florida football finalizes hire of Joe Craddock as quarterbacks coach


Florida football will be hiring Joe Craddock as its next quarterbacks coach, according to a report by Swamp247.

The move adds a veteran offensive mind with extensive play-calling and quarterback-development experience under Jon Sumrall’s first staff with the Gators.

Craddock comes to Gainesville after spending the past two seasons with Tulane, where he served as the Green Wave’s offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. Prior to that, he held the same role at Troy.

At Troy, Craddock’s offenses consistently ranked near the top of the Sun Belt across multiple statistical categories, combining downfield passing efficiency with a balanced run game.

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Before his time at Troy and Tulane, Craddock built a resume that includes offensive coordinator stops at UAB, Arkansas and SMU, along with earlier developmental roles at Clemson.

Craddock’s coaching career began after a playing stint at Middle Tennessee, followed by professional experience overseas before transitioning into coaching at the high school level and quickly rising through the college ranks.

With the Orange and Blue, Craddock is expected to work closely with the Gators’ signal-callers as the program looks to establish consistency and development at the position under Sumrall.

Follow us @GatorsWire on X, formerly known as Twitter, as well as Bluesky, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators news, notes and opinions.





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‘Pursuing all leads:’ Search for missing Fort Myers boaters continues into Monday morning

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‘Pursuing all leads:’ Search for missing Fort Myers boaters continues into Monday morning


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The search for the 57-year-old Fort Myers attorney and his 33-year-old nephew continued late Sunday after the pair was reported missing Dec. 19 after a fishing trip off the coast of Naples.

The U.S. Coast Guard reported it would continue the search overnight.

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A new grid search by volunteer searchers was expected to start Monday morning, Dec. 22, 70 miles east of Naples, family members reported on Facebook.

“USCG crews and partner agencies are continuing the search through the night by air and by sea,” the Coast Guard posted on X at 8:34 p.m. Sunday, Dec. 21.

The U.S. Coast Guard is leading the search along with partner agencies to find attorney Randall Spivey and his nephew Brandon Billmaier, who were reported missing at about 9 p.m. Friday. The boat they’d been using for their trip had been scheduled to return at about sunset.

The pair went out in a 42-foot Freeman boat named “Unstopp-A-Bull,” according to Luis Garcia, the supervisor on watch for the Coast Guard sector in St. Petersburg. The Coast Guard found the boat floating upright in the Gulf about 70 miles off the coast of Naples, with no signs of the missing boaters.

Now, one of the largest searches in Southwest Florida history is underway, with a large community effort behind it.

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Were the missing Florida boaters from Fort Myers found? Boater’s wife provides updates

As of late Sunday, Dec. 21, Spivey and Billmaier, the Florida boaters reported missing Dec. 19 after a fishing trip off the coast of Naples, had not been found, according to Billmaier’s wife, Deborah.

Deborah and other family members of the missing men continued to ask for prayers and for volunteers to help search.

“We are asking for vessels capable of a 225-mile range to assist in a major offshore search,” Deborah Billmaier said in a Facebook post.

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“Thank you to all the local heroes who are working to bring my husband Brandon and uncle Randy home,” her post said. “They have not yet been found, but we are staying positive.”

To volunteer in the offshore seach for the missing boaters:

Deborah Billmore’s Facebook post asked volunteer searchers to text to Paul at 239-634-3400:

  • Departure location
  • Vessel name
  • Captains name and cell number
  • First mate’s name and cell number
  • Vessel range

She said vessels will depart from their own location (ranging from Fort Myers to Marco Island) and search grids would be assigned after updated information is received at 8 a.m. Monday, Dec. 22.

‘Still not sure exactly what occurred’

Deborah Billmaier had posted earlier Sunday:

“Updates after speaking with the U.S. Coast Guard this morning,” Deborah Billmaier wrote in a Facebook post Sunday. “The EPIRB (Emergency Position Indicating Radio Beacon) was unfortunately still on the boat. They were bottom fishing when the incident occurred (still not sure exactly what occurred.)”

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The post also mentioned that a couple of life jackets were not found on the boat, indicating that Spivey and Billmaier may be wearing them.

Who is involved in the Florida missing boaters search?

The U.S. Coast Guard sector in St. Petersburg posted news of the search on social media Saturday morning, Dec. 20.

According to the Facebook post, air and surface crews from the agency and partner agencies U.S. Coast Guard Station Fort Myers Beach, U.S. Coast Guard Air Station Clearwater, U.S. Coast Guard Air Station Miami and Lee County Sheriff’s Office are involved in the search.

“The search effort support features an 87-foot boat on water, 45-foot boat, 60-foot helicopter, 144 plane, 6130 Air Force from Patrick Air Force Base and an 144 continuing through the day (not sure if this is a boat or a plane),” Deborah Billmaier wrote in her post the following morning.

An urgent marine broadcast has also been issued to all vessels in the area to help expand the search range, said Billmaier.

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Community steps in to help in missing boater search in Florida

The U.S. Coast Guard coordinated one of the largest search parties in Southwest Florida history Sunday morning, Dec. 21, starting at first light, according to Deborah Billmaier.

Florida Rep. Peggy Gossett-Seidman shared the post on X.

Erin Shaw Harrel of Facebook group SWFL Boaters urged people Saturday to take to the water to search for the missing boaters, providing these coordinates for the search: 25-51.67N 083-12.16W.

Brent Stokes, owner of Stokes Marine, also asked for volunteers to help search.

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According to Stokes, anyone willing to help with the search could call Tricia Spivey at 239-896-4099 or the U.S. Coast Guard at 727-322-4180.

Capt. Corrie Sergent of the Coast Guard’s Sector St. Petersburg posted on X Sunday morning, Dec. 21, noting crews were “pursuing all leads and saturating the (search) area.”

“Thank you to this amazing community for their support,’ Sergent said in the tweet.

Who are Randall Spivey, Brandon Billmaier ? Florida attorney and nephew missing off Fort Myers

Attorney Randall Spivey, 57, and his 33-year-old nephew Brandon Billmaier were reported missing at about 9 p.m. Friday, Dec. 19.

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Tricia Spivey reported her husband and nephew missing Friday night, said Luis Garcia, supervisor on watch for the Coast Guard sector in St. Petersburg. “They were going to fish about 102 miles offshore.”

Spivey is a white male, 6’1”, 245lbs, with brown hair and brown eyes. He was last seen wearing khaki pants and a dark in color shirt, according to Lee County Sheriff’s Office. Billmaier is a white male, 6’2”, 250lbs, with strawberry hair and brown eyes.

Where was the boat of the missing fisherman found?

The pair went out in a 42-foot Freeman boat named “Unstopp-A-Bull,” Garcia said. The Coast Guard later found the boat floating upright in the Gulf about 70 miles off the coast of Naples, but no signs of the missing boaters.

Tricia Spivey says GPS coordinates from the boat’s spot tracker led them to that location near Marco Island and Flamingo. That’s where the search has been concentrated.

Where to call with information, help with search for missing Florida boaters

The Coast Coast asked anyone with pertinent information to contact the agency’s St. Petersburg sector at 866-881-1392.

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The Lee County Sheriff’s Office also requested the public’s help in locating Spivey and Billmaier.

If anyone knows about the pair’s whereabouts, they can call 911, if applicable, or call the sheriff’s office at 477-1000. To remain anonymous, you can also call SWFL Crime Stoppers at 1-800-780-TIPS.

Contributing: Cindy McCurry-Ross



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Agriculture commissioner urges residents to be diligent as Florida faces increased wildfire risks amid dry conditions

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Agriculture commissioner urges residents to be diligent as Florida faces increased wildfire risks amid dry conditions


FLORIDA – Florida state officials warned of heightened wildfire risks across the state as dry conditions were expected to continue into 2026.

“I’ve been with the agency a long time, and this is the driest winter that I can remember in quite a while,” Florida Forest Service Director Rick Dolan said during a Friday press conference.

The number of wildfires had increased significantly, with more than 3,000 reported in 2025 compared to approximately 2,000 in 2024. This surge came months before Florida’s typical peak wildfire season, which usually occurs between April and June.

50-acre wildfire in Hilliard contained, drivers still asked to use caution in area

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Florida Commissioner of Agriculture Wilton Simpson emphasized that human activity was a major concern. “The majority of those fires are started by backyard fires, arson, things of that nature,” Simpson said. “We need everyone to be diligent as we come into the new year with the drier conditions.”

The dry conditions were reflected in rainfall statistics. While 2024 saw above-average precipitation with 62 inches of rain compared to the typical 52 inches, 2025 recorded only 42 inches — creating a deficit of nearly 10 inches, according to Meteorologist Michelle McCormick.

The state was increasing its investment in wildfire management. The 2024-25 budget allocated $45 million for combating wildfires, with a proposed increase to $64 million in the upcoming budget.

Multiple counties across Florida had implemented burn bans. In Duval County, burning leaves was prohibited, with violations carrying fines starting at $250. While recreational campfires using clean, dry wood grown on private property were permitted, officials urged residents to verify local restrictions before any burning activity.

“There are many counties in our state currently with burn bans. Please check with your counties before you have any fires,” Simpson advised.

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Residents can check the current burn ban status through the Florida Forest Service’s online dashboard, which displays county-by-county restrictions. Counties such as Hillsborough, Orange, and Duval maintained permanent yard debris burn bans.

A recent wildfire in Hilliard, Nassau County, which consumed approximately 50 acres, served as a reminder of the current risks facing the state.

Copyright 2025 by WJXT News4JAX – All rights reserved.



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