Prerace favorite Sovereignty  appeared in position to produce another thrilling, victorious stretch run in the March 29 $1.02 million Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park.

WinStar Farm, CHC, and Cold Press Racing’s Tappan Street , however, was not to be overtaken.

Tappan Street, a bay son of Into Mischief  , made his move under Luis Saez heading into the far turn and took the lead entering the stretch before charging to a 1 1/4-length victory in the 1 1/8-mile race for 3-year-olds.

The Florida Derby awarded Kentucky Derby (G1) qualifying points on a 100-50-25-15-10 basis to the top five finisher.

Tappan Street, bred in Kentucky by Blue Heaven Farm, started for the first time since finishing second in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Feb. 1.

“When you give ’em nearly, I guess, what, eight weeks between starts, there’s always a concern. ‘Does he know enough?’” said trainer Brad Cox, whose colt broke from post 9. “But he’s a very smart horse, he’s intelligent. I felt he would break very, very well today, just the way he has been training. And he did. I think that put him in the race and really put him in a great position.”

Sovereignty, meanwhile, ran four weeks after capturing the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream. Winner of last year’s two-turn Street Sense Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs, the Godolphin homebred, another son of Into Mischief, was carrying Manny Franco because regular rider Junior Alvarado had been sidelined with a shoulder injury suffered last weekend.

Sovereignty captured both of his two wins by storming in the stretch to overtake the leader and cross the line first.

Nevertheless, WinStar Farm’s Elliott Walden said he was not overly concerned at seeing Bill Mott-trained Sovereignty appearing behind Tappan Street in the lane.

“I thought we were traveling better,” Walden said. “But Sovereignty’s a very good horse. He’s going to be a tough foe at a mile and a quarter. We had eight weeks, he had four weeks. We’re on even ground now, it’ll be a good race (in the Kentucky Derby).”

Saez said he noticed who was trailing his colt.

“I saw (Sovereignty) and I let my horse go a little bit more, and he gave me a good turn of foot,” the jockey said. “When he came to the top of the stretch, I knew it was going to be tough to catch (us).”

Madaket Road  and Neoequos  ran to the lead out of the gate and into the first turn. Madaket Road, ridden by Mike Smith and trained by Bob Baffert, set fractions of :23.37, :47.22, and 1:11.61.

Smith had replaced Tyler Gaffalione, who suffered a broken ankle March 26.

Neoquos and rider Edgard Zayas edged ahead of Madaket Road entering the stretch, before Tappan Street overtook the leaders and ran to victory in a winning time of 1:49.27.

Tappan Street paid $6.80 to win, followed by Sovereignty, Neoequos, Madaket Road, and Disruptor .

“Everything went to plan. He broke from there pretty well. He was in good position. The whole way I had a lot of horse,” Saez said. “We knew the speed was inside and we followed the speed. Everything came out perfect.”

Smith sounded impressed by the colts who finished ahead of Madaket Road.

“Let me tell you something, those two or three horses in front of us are serious, man, because I was running,” Smith said. “I could hear him and I could feel him, and it was getting to him a little bit, but it’s not because of a lack of try. He still kicked.”

Mott, whose colt broke from the outside post in the 10-horse field, was not discouraged by the outcome.

“The winner ran good. It was a good race,” Mott said. “This doesn’t have to be his (Sovereignty’s) best race. Sometimes you can look at it and say, ‘Maybe that’s a good thing.’ You don’t want their best race before the big event.

“This is a very important race, but I think the fact that he ran very big last time and ran very well this time, maybe he’ll continue to improve. I don’t think the fact that he didn’t win doesn’t mean he didn’t run a good race.”

Tappan Street was purchased as a yearling for $1 million at the 2023 Fasig-Tipton’s The Saratoga Sale by CHC, Siena Farm, and Maverick Racing. 

Walden said he wanted to name the colt after Siena Farm’s owner Anthony Manganaro, who died in August 2023, just two weeks the colt was purchased. Because the name had been taken, though, the connections chose to name the colt after the street on which Manganaro grew up.

“Into Mischief’s been really good to us,” Walden said. “He’s a big, strong colt, great physique. The kind of horse that we envisioned being able to win races like this.”

With the victory, Tappan Street now sits third on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 110 points, with Sovereignty fourth, also with 110 points. No Kentucky Derby (G1) prep has produced more winners of the Run for the Roses than the Florida Derby, from which 25 horses have gone on to win the first leg of the Triple Crown. Florida Derby runner-up Mage   was the last to triumph in the Kentucky Derby in 2023.

From 1995-2017, the seven Florida Derby participants who were victorious in the Run for the Roses also captured the Florida Derby.

Tappan Street is the 23rd grade 1 winner for six-time leading sire Into Mischief, who stands at Spendthrift Farm near Lexington for an advertised fee of $250,000. In addition to Tappan Street and Sovereignty, Into Mischief is also represented on the Road to the Kentucky Derby by Citizen Bull  and Barnes .

The Big Dance heats up on Saturday night with Elite Eight matchups between Texas Tech (3) and Florida (1) and Alabama (2) and Duke (1).

In tonight’s opener, SEC Tournament champ Florida (33-4, 14-4 SEC) will look to stay hot against the best team it has seen in the West Region, the Texas Tech Red Raiders.

Florida reached this stage with wins over 16-seed Norfolk State, 8-seed UConn and 4-seed Maryland, sandwiching blowouts of the Spartans and Terrapins around a close call vs. the Huskies in the round of 32.

Texas Tech (28-8, 15-5 Big 12) needed a furious late rally and overtime to survive vs. Arkansas (10) on Thursday night. This team beat a 14-seed (UNC Wilmington) in the first round and an 11-seed (Drake) in the second ahead of the Sweet 16 battle with Arkansas. The way those teams were seeded undersells how stiff the Red Raiders’ NCAAT competition has been, though.

Texas Tech vs. Florida Odds: Spread, ML, Total

The player to watch tonight is TT star JT Toppin, who won Big 12 Player of the Year after averaging just over 18 points and 9 rebounds per game. Florida boasts a star of its own in Walter Clayton Jr., but how Toppin fares on the block will likely have more impact on who wins, as the heavily favored Gators are balanced enough to survive a quiet night from Clayton.

The Red Raiders could* also get a boost from All-Big 12 Second Teamer Chance McMillian, who is a 43.4 percent 3-point shooter, but he’s been listed as day-to-day for multiple weeks now.

*Key word “could.” As of Saturday morning, it was unclear whether McMillian would return tonight from an oblique strain he suffered in his team’s Big 12 Tournament quarterfinal matchup vs. Baylor.

How to Watch Texas Tech vs. Florida

• Tipoff: 6:09 p.m. ET
• Channel: TBS/truTV

Best Texas Tech vs. Florida Player Prop

Thomas Haugh o11.5 points (+100 at FD) — 1 units

The balanced Gators are not an easy team to target on the props front, but one particular player on Florida’s deep bench appears primed to have a huge night.

Sophomore big man Thomas Haugh has come off the bench in all but five games this year, but his minutes and production are trending in the right direction right now.

Obviously, if starter Alex Condon is hobbled or has to miss this game, Haugh’s ceiling is sky-high. But even if Condon manages to both suit up and be effective tonight, Haugh is playing too well right now not to get minutes.

His numbers in just 22 minutes vs. Norfolk State (No. 178 per KenPom) should be taken with a grain of salt, but are still worth mentioning: 13 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, 2 blocks.

His production vs. Connecticut and Maryland doesn’t need a caveat, though.

Haugh had 7 points, 7 rebounds and 2 assists vs. in 27 minutes vs. the reigning national champs, and he was even better in an extended appearance (32 minutes) vs. the Terps, with 13 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals and 1 block.

Against a Texas Tech frontcourt that boasts not only one of the best back-to-the-basket scorers in the country in Toppin, but also 6-foot-6 battering ram Darrion Williams, Haugh will be needed, even if Condon is 100 percent healthy.

Haugh’s rebounds prop — Over 6.5 Rebounds (+100 at bet365) — is also extremely tempting at even money.

These prices and lines will change in a big way if Condon is ruled out, so if these interest you, now is the time to hop on them.

Florida vs. Texas Tech Prediction, Best Bets

I’ve got two takes on this matchup. Unfortunately, they kinda contradict each other, but bear with me here as I explain myself:

• JT Toppin won’t be as effective as usual offensively.
• Texas Tech will keep this close

If you just look at the box score from Thursday night, you’ll see that Maryland big man Derik Queen lit the Gators up for 27 points on 8-for-17 shooting. But that doesn’t mean Toppin is positioned for the same kind of production. Queen did his damage off the dribble, and that is not how Toppin operates.

It’s hard to deny that Florida’s ceiling is higher than Texas Tech’s, especially if Condon is anywhere near 100 percent and McMillian remains sidelined.

Florida, however, was sloppy at times vs. both Connecticut and Maryland — some of the mistakes were caused by great defense, but a number of them were not — and I think we’ll see some lulls from the Gators again tonight.

Ultimately, though, Florida is well-suited to contain Toppin and Williams — who are two of the biggest bullies (in a good way) in the country — and it has the firepower in the backcourt to pull this thing out.

It won’t be a cakewalk, though.

Remember, Texas Tech is the only team in the country that has beaten Houston since February. Also keep in mind that the Red Raiders pulled that off on the road in a game they essentially played without Toppin, who was ejected in the first five minutes.

Obviously, Texas Tech won’t be able to hang with Florida if it starts this contest in a shooting funk like the one it was in for most of the Arkansas game. That being said, I do like the underdogs to keep this thing competitive from start to finish (cover).

Florida vs. Texas Tech Best Bets

• Texas Tech +7 (-110 at bet365) — 1 unit

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SAN FRANCISCO — Two days after overcoming a 16-point deficit to stun Arkansas in the Sweet 16, Texas Tech will face its biggest challenge of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday. 

The third-seeded Red Raiders will play top-seeded Florida, led by former Saint Mary’s guard and University of San Francisco coach Todd Golden, in the Elite Eight at Chase Center.

At stake: A spot in the Final Four. 

Florida has been a juggernaut through the first three rounds of the tournament, defeating Norfolk State, two-time defending champion UConn and Maryland. The Gators (33-4) have won nine in a row and 15 of 16.

Texas Tech understands the challenge that awaits.

“They have a plan that I think they execute as good as anybody in the country,” Texas Tech coach Grant McCasland after his team’s 85-83 victory over Arkansas in overtime on Thursday. “I watched a little bit of the SEC championship and watched them basically just play their best basketball of the year. I’ve heard consistently from coaches that they’re playing the best of anybody in the country.

“This is what you sign up for when you play in the NCAA Tournament and you want the opportunity to play the best, but we’ve got a tremendous amount of respect because I think they play the right way and they can beat you in a ton of different ways. They’ve got grit and fight and a great plan, and they execute.”

On the flip side, Texas Tech is no slouch, either. 

Despite being undersized at almost every position against a streaking Arkansas team, the Red Raiders charged back down the stretch behind clutch play on both ends.

The result was the second biggest comeback in Sweet 16 history. 

Sacramento native and Texas Tech’s second-leading scorer Darrion Williams struggled to make shots. But he scored 20 points on 26 attempts, hitting a game-tying 3-pointer and the go-ahead layup in overtime to seal the win. 

Big 12 player of the year JT Toppin was a force, finishing with 20 points and 10 boards while guard Christian Anderson led all scorers with 22. 

“They’re a really good team,” Florida forward Thomas Haugh said Friday. “They have two really good bigs that they play to, and they’ve got a good rim-protector big. And their guards can all shoot. It’s going to be a really good game. We’ve got to stick to the scout, stick to the game plan.”

Here are the game’s top storylines:

FLORIDA’S SIZE

Florida will have the clear height advantage.

The Gators start 6-foot-11 forward Alex Condon and 6-10 center Rueben Chinyelu – two athletic shot blockers who are also proficient in the post. Florida also brings Haugh, a 6-9 forward, and 7-1 center Micah Handlogten off the bench. 

The Gators more than doubled Maryland’s rebounding totals, hauling in 42 to the Terps’ 20.

“I feel like their size is one of them things,” Texas Tech forward Federiko Federiko told reporters on Friday. “And they’re aggressive, super aggressive.”

While Federiko is 6-11 and Toppin is 6-9, the duo didn’t play much on the floor together against a similarly big Arkansas team. The Red Raiders often went small to combat Arkansas’ size with quickness.

CAN TECH HAVE A BETTER SHOOTING NIGHT?

For a majority of Thursday’s game, Texas Tech failed to get into any sort of offensive rhythm.

The Red Raiders shot 35.3% from the field in the first half and struggled to get to the rim against Arkansas’ length and athleticism. 

Despite his clutch shot making down the stretch, Williams will probably need to be efficient from the field early against a Florida team that plays very well from ahead.

On Thursday, Williams shot 8 of 26 overall and 2 of 10 from 3-point range.

Still, he made an impact.

“I think to play a game like he played yesterday, not being able to make shots early or struggling early, but to keep the confidence to make those shots down the stretch I think is why he’s the heart of the team, just that confidence and his will to go win for us,” teammate Kevin Overton said. 

STRENGTH IN NUMBERS

While Florida has the size and athleticism to match up with any team in the country, perhaps the Gators’ biggest advantage is their depth. 

Six players scored six or more points against Maryland and eight players played eight minutes or more. 

“It’s our biggest strength,” Golden said. “We go nine deep. With Micah (Handlogten) coming back, I have equated it to kind of getting a deadline trade deal done. Him coming back when he did was huge for us.

“This time of year, having that depth is incredible.”

WILL CHANCE MCMILLIAN PLAY?

Texas Tech guard and Vallejo native Chance McMillian missed his fourth straight game with an oblique injury on Thursday and will again be a game-time decision, according to McCasland. 

The senior is Texas Tech’s third leading scorer and a 41% shooter from the 3-point line.

McCasland said McMillian participated in Texas Tech’s pregame shoot around on Thursday and was expected to play in some capacity. But he was scratched from the lineup after he told McCasland he didn’t feel right. 

“We’re just trying to give him confidence that he can do it and trying to support him as best we can,” McCasland said.

Originally Published: March 28, 2025 at 5:55 PM PDT