Threat for additional storms could extend into December
Areas of concern for the tropics as we head towards November
AccuWeather’s Bernie Rayno and Alex DaSilva monitor the Caribbean for potential tropical development from Oct. 30 to Nov. 2, as we head into the late stages of hurricane season.
AccuWeather is predicting high ocean temperatures could mean up to three tropical storms could form in November.
And then the news grows worse for Florida and the East Coast of the United States, which are still recovering from Hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton.
Florida and the East Coast are the most likely to be impacted, AccuWeather forecasters said.
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The threat for additional storms could even extend into December, even though the official end of hurricane season is Nov. 30.
The next named storms of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be Patty, Rafael and Sara.
November could bring 1-3 tropical storms
“We’ve been saying since March that the end of this year’s hurricane season could be quite active,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
“We’re expecting a late-season surge in the month of November with another one to three named storms possible in the Atlantic basin.”
DaSilva also said there’s a potential for tropical trouble extending into early December.
“We may even see a tropical storm in December this year. It doesn’t happen very often, but the very warm sea surface temperatures could make it possible this year.”
Climate Prediction Center issues ‘Global Tropics Hazards Outlook’ for November
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting up to a 40% chance of tropical development in the Caribbean between Oct. 30 and Nov. 5, and dropping to less than 20% for a tropical depression or greater in strength developing in the same area between Nov. 6 through Nov. 12.
Preliminary predictions for Nov. 13-19 call for less than 20% for a tropical depression or greater in strength developing in the Caribbean.
A “robust” Madden-Julian Oscillation brings the “potential for tropical cyclone development over the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean Sea during the week 1-2 period,” the Climate Prediction Center announced Oct. 28.
Why so many tropical storms this late in the season?
Extremely warm water temperatures, which have helped storms to develop throughout the season, are continuing to help tropical cyclones to form.
“Ocean temperatures continue to run above the historical average across the Caribbean and most of the Atlantic Ocean. There are also pockets of warmer water in the Gulf of Mexico,” AccuWeather said.
Another factor is the lack of wind shear. Without wind shear, a tropical storm can develop and strengthen.
“In addition to providing extra heat energy to fuel rapid intensification of tropical storms and hurricanes, those warm waters may also lengthen the hurricane season beyond what has been typically the norm over the past century,” said Brett Anderson, AccuWeather senior meteorologist and climate expert.
“An earlier start and a later end to the hurricane season may very well be what our near future holds.”
Florida, US East Coast at risk from November tropical storms
AccuWeather meteorologists said there is virtually no risk of direct impacts in November to the western Gulf of Mexico along the Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama coastline.
“The western and central Gulf of Mexico coastline likely will not see any direct impacts for the rest of this hurricane season.”
The news isn’t as good for Florida.
“We are concerned that areas, the entire state of Florida even up into the Carolinas, could be at risk of seeing another tropical impact this season,” DaSilva said.
Could Florida see a hurricane in early November?
“We’re becoming more confident that the next named storm in the Atlantic basin could form within the next week,” said AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.
“There is a large area of high-pressure building across the northeast that has sent a stalled front southward. That sets off a chain reaction that begins with showers and thunderstorms in the southern Caribbean.”
“It wouldn’t shock me if we’re dealing with a hurricane potentially at one point early in November here,” DaSilva said, pointing to a system in the western Caribbean.
➤ Tropical storm? Hurricane?! It’s possible in early November. What Florida residents should know
➤ Tropics watch, Oct. 29: National Hurricane Center gives system in Caribbean 40% chance of developing. Florida impact?
The National Hurricane Center has given the system a 40 percent chance of development over the next seven days and are predicting it could become a tropical depression late this week or over the weekend.
AccuWeather has been predicting the system is likely to become a named storm in early November, although there’s a few different scenarios on where it could go.
A few of those scenarios could affect Florida, possibly sometime between Nov. 7-10.
- Northly track: “If a storm develops, it could move across Cuba or Hispaniola and move out into the open Atlantic, but we do have to watch for the possibility of eventual impacts to Florida. The area of high pressure could potentially block a storm from heading out to sea and essentially force the storm to turn west toward Florida,” DaSilva said.
- Western track: If the area of high pressure starts to weaken, it could allow the storm to turn to the north, with the possibility of an impact to South Florida.
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Countdown clock: When will hurricane season end?
What’s next?
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