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AccuWeather predicting 1-3 tropical storms in November. Florida residents should be prepared

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AccuWeather predicting 1-3 tropical storms in November. Florida residents should be prepared



Threat for additional storms could extend into December

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AccuWeather is predicting high ocean temperatures could mean up to three tropical storms could form in November.

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And then the news grows worse for Florida and the East Coast of the United States, which are still recovering from Hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton.

Florida and the East Coast are the most likely to be impacted, AccuWeather forecasters said.

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The threat for additional storms could even extend into December, even though the official end of hurricane season is Nov. 30.

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The next named storms of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be Patty, Rafael and Sara.

November could bring 1-3 tropical storms

“We’ve been saying since March that the end of this year’s hurricane season could be quite active,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.

“We’re expecting a late-season surge in the month of November with another one to three named storms possible in the Atlantic basin.” 

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DaSilva also said there’s a potential for tropical trouble extending into early December.

“We may even see a tropical storm in December this year. It doesn’t happen very often, but the very warm sea surface temperatures could make it possible this year.”

Climate Prediction Center issues ‘Global Tropics Hazards Outlook’ for November

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting up to a 40% chance of tropical development in the Caribbean between Oct. 30 and Nov. 5, and dropping to less than 20% for a tropical depression or greater in strength developing in the same area between Nov. 6 through Nov. 12.

Preliminary predictions for Nov. 13-19 call for less than 20% for a tropical depression or greater in strength developing in the Caribbean.

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A “robust” Madden-Julian Oscillation brings the “potential for tropical cyclone development over the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean Sea during the week 1-2 period,” the Climate Prediction Center announced Oct. 28.

Why so many tropical storms this late in the season?

Extremely warm water temperatures, which have helped storms to develop throughout the season, are continuing to help tropical cyclones to form.

“Ocean temperatures continue to run above the historical average across the Caribbean and most of the Atlantic Ocean. There are also pockets of warmer water in the Gulf of Mexico,” AccuWeather said.

Another factor is the lack of wind shear. Without wind shear, a tropical storm can develop and strengthen.

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“In addition to providing extra heat energy to fuel rapid intensification of tropical storms and hurricanes, those warm waters may also lengthen the hurricane season beyond what has been typically the norm over the past century,” said Brett Anderson, AccuWeather senior meteorologist and climate expert.

“An earlier start and a later end to the hurricane season may very well be what our near future holds.” 

Florida, US East Coast at risk from November tropical storms

AccuWeather meteorologists said there is virtually no risk of direct impacts in November to the western Gulf of Mexico along the Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama coastline.

“The western and central Gulf of Mexico coastline likely will not see any direct impacts for the rest of this hurricane season.”

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The news isn’t as good for Florida.

“We are concerned that areas, the entire state of Florida even up into the Carolinas, could be at risk of seeing another tropical impact this season,” DaSilva said.

Could Florida see a hurricane in early November?

“We’re becoming more confident that the next named storm in the Atlantic basin could form within the next week,” said AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.

“There is a large area of high-pressure building across the northeast that has sent a stalled front southward. That sets off a chain reaction that begins with showers and thunderstorms in the southern Caribbean.” 

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“It wouldn’t shock me if we’re dealing with a hurricane potentially at one point early in November here,” DaSilva said, pointing to a system in the western Caribbean.

➤ Tropical storm? Hurricane?! It’s possible in early November. What Florida residents should know

Tropics watch, Oct. 29: National Hurricane Center gives system in Caribbean 40% chance of developing. Florida impact?

The National Hurricane Center has given the system a 40 percent chance of development over the next seven days and are predicting it could become a tropical depression late this week or over the weekend.

AccuWeather has been predicting the system is likely to become a named storm in early November, although there’s a few different scenarios on where it could go.

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A few of those scenarios could affect Florida, possibly sometime between Nov. 7-10.

  • Northly track: “If a storm develops, it could move across Cuba or Hispaniola and move out into the open Atlantic, but we do have to watch for the possibility of eventual impacts to Florida. The area of high pressure could potentially block a storm from heading out to sea and essentially force the storm to turn west toward Florida,” DaSilva said.
  • Western track: If the area of high pressure starts to weaken, it could allow the storm to turn to the north, with the possibility of an impact to South Florida.

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Countdown clock: When will hurricane season end?

What’s next? 

We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site’s app to ensure you’re always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. 



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Driver arrested after allegedly plowing onto Florida airport tarmac

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Driver arrested after allegedly plowing onto Florida airport tarmac


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Audubon Florida leader has built reputation for working across party lines | The Invading Sea

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Audubon Florida leader has built reputation for working across party lines | The Invading Sea


By Issabella Gutierrez 

As a child growing up in rural Florida, Julie Wraithmell once stood at the foot of a tall pine tree and watched a woman climb 50 feet into the air to occupy an abandoned eagle’s nest. The woman, Doris Mager, stayed there for a week to raise money for raptor rehabilitation. For young Julie, the “nest-in” became a blueprint for a life in conservation. 

In Florida’s often unpredictable environmental policy landscape, Wraithmell has built a reputation for working across party lines.

Audubon Florida Executive Director Julie Wraithmell at Corkscrew Swamp Sanctuary (Photo courtesy of Audubon Florida)

Today, as the vice president and executive director of Audubon Florida, the state office of the National Audubon Society, she leads the organization’s statewide science and advocacy efforts from her office in Tallahassee. She spends the legislative session in committee hearings and meetings with lawmakers, agency officials and conservation leaders.

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Over two decades, she has evolved from a field biologist and self-described “bird nerd” into an influential environmental leader in Florida, navigating a political landscape that can be as unpredictable as any treetop. 

A native Floridian, Wraithmell earned a bachelor’s degree in biology from Duke University and a master’s degree in science from Florida State University. 

She began her career in 1997 as a biologist at the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, where she worked for eight years and helped launch the Great Florida Birding Trail, a 2,000-mile network connecting more than 500 wildlife-viewing sites. 

Wraithmell now oversees 80 Audubon Florida staff members and 45 chapters statewide. Beyond lobbying, she directs habitat restoration strategies and coordinates policy teams focused on land conservation and water quality. 

Renée Wilson, a senior communications coordinator at Audubon Florida, described Wraithmell as a “getter-donner” who remains “cool as a cucumber” even when tension runs high in the Capitol.

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“She’s not a micromanager,” Wilson said. “She gives you the direction you need, and she’s there if you need a course correction, but she really empowers the staff to follow their passions.”

A great blue heron at Jonathan Dickinson State Park, where the state proposed to build golf courses before public outcry scuttled the plan. (Mwanner, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons)
A great blue heron at Jonathan Dickinson State Park, where the state proposed to build golf courses before public outcry scuttled the plan. (Mwanner, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons)

Her leadership was tested in 2024 and 2025, when proposals surfaced to add golf courses to state parks and to swap protected land at the Guana River Wildlife Management Area for development. Audubon Florida helped generate tens of thousands of public comments and coordinated bipartisan opposition that led to the withdrawal of both proposals. 

Elizabeth Alvi, senior director of policy for Audubon Florida, said Wraithmell’s leadership in these sensitive moments is defined by a refusal to be pulled off course by short-term pressure. She added that Wraithmell is widely respected by lawmakers across the aisle. 

“People know that when she speaks, it is grounded in science and aligned with a clear organizational priority, not opportunistic positioning,” Alvi said. “That discipline earns respect in the Capitol because it’s consistent and thoughtful.” 

Wraithmell often quotes a mentor who told her that advocacy requires “weaving back and forth across the political aisle like sloppy drunks.”

“You might find yourself fighting a legislator over a road project one year, but you have to be ready to partner with that same person on a land conservation bill the next,” Wraithmell said. Holding onto professional grudges, she said, is a luxury the environment cannot afford. 

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That pragmatism shapes her push for stable funding for Florida Forever, the state’s land acquisition program that has preserved more than 1 million acres. While funding has fluctuated in recent years, she said unstable funding could impede critical habitat purchases as development pressures increase.

Heavily oiled brown pelicans waiting to be cleaned following the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010. (International Bird Rescue Research Center, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons)
Heavily oiled brown pelicans waiting to be cleaned following the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010. (International Bird Rescue Research Center, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons)

In 2010, Wraithmell led Audubon’s response to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, advocating for restoration settlement funds to be directed toward coastal bird habitat recovery. Her efforts earned her the Charles H. Callison Award in 2015, the highest honor from the National Audubon Society. 

Wraithmell does not shy away from the topic of climate change.  

“The ocean is coming for us,” Wraithmell said. “Whether you call it climate change, sea-level rise or flooding, we are seeing the impacts on our shorebirds and our coastal communities right now.” 

Under her leadership, Audubon Florida has expanded coastal resilience efforts, including protecting nesting grounds threatened by rising sea levels and promoting nature-based solutions such as wetland restoration and living shorelines. Alvi said many people underestimate how difficult it is to align science, policy timing and organizational reputation simultaneously. 

“The most significant win will likely be institutional strength: a conservation movement in Florida that is more strategic, more science-driven and more disciplined in its public engagement,” Alvi said.  

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When asked to summarize Florida’s environmental story in a single place, Wraithmell pointed to the Everglades. She described it as an ecosystem shaped by historical “screw-ups,” from ditching and draining to the exploitation of birds. 

“It’s a site of people coming together and saying, ‘Whoop, we screwed up. Now what are we going to do about it?’” Wraithmell said. “With billions of dollars in investment, we are seeing results.” 

Despite the rapid pace of development across Florida, Wraithmell remains optimistic about the future, pointing to volunteers, students, and local advocates who make up the Audubon Florida network.  

“Watching kind of the creative magic that they get up to together,” Wraithmell said. “That is what gives me hope for the next decade.” 

The little girl watching from the ground is gone. Now, Julie Wraithmell is the one in the treetop, asking young Floridians to climb with her and protect wild Florida. 

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Issabella M. Gutierrez is a junior majoring in multimedia journalism at Florida Atlantic University. Banner photo: A great egret flies over the Florida Everglades (iStock image).

Sign up for The Invading Sea newsletter by visiting here. To support The Invading Sea, click here to make a donation. If you are interested in submitting an opinion piece to The Invading Sea, email Editor Nathan Crabbe. 



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Florida Democrats flipped two legislative seats in 2026 special election, their best performance in years

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Florida Democrats flipped two legislative seats in 2026 special election, their best performance in years


Florida Democrats had their best election night in years Tuesday, flipping two legislative seats.

Analysts and politicians point to the combination of strong candidates, low turnout special elections, rising gas prices compounding existing affordability issues and the ongoing conflict in Iran, which helped offset the registration and financial advantages of Republicans.  

Also, historically, an unpopular president heading towards the midterm elections is always tricky for the party in power.

These factors may justify some optimism for the minority party in the state heading into the November election cycle, which could see rematches from Tuesday’s contests.

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University of Central Florida political science professor Aubrey Jewett said at the campaign level Florida Democrats did a good job getting solid candidates who didn’t make mistakes and stuck to the message of affordability.

Also, there is the timing, as historically the sitting president’s party more often loses seats in midterm elections at the congressional and state legislative levels. Jewett added that unpopular presidents lose even more seats, noting that since the 2024 presidential election, Democrats have flipped more than two dozen seats in Republican or battleground states.

“President Trump’s unpopularity cast a long, dark shadow over these Republican candidates in these races,” Jewett said. “And so, even if you had decent candidates, it was just too much of an uphill battle because of President Trump’s unpopularity.”

One of those Democrats who won did so in a district that includes Trump’s Mar-a-lago estate 

Democrat Emily Gregory of Jupiter led by 2.38 percentage points with 33,429 ballots cast in the House District 87 contest along the east coast of Palm Beach County. The district includes the home of President Donald Trump.

Gregory is a Treasure Coast native, a military spouse and mother of three with a master’s degree in public health from Columbia University who operates a small fitness business.

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Tampa Democrat Brian Nathan, a U.S. Navy veteran and organizer with the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, was up 0.51 percentage points in the state Senate District 14 contest in Hillsborough County, where 80,016 votes were cast.

The results remain unofficial.

Republican Hilary Holley easily won the third legislative special election, House District 51 in Polk County, by more than 8 percentage points.

In the Tampa State Senate race, Jewett said there was evidence that Republicans seemed to be doing well in early voting, noting GOP candidate Josie Tomkow, a former House member, had good name recognition and funding.  

“But it appears that the Democrats that turn out were strongly unified and (no party affiliation voters) must have gone strongly Democratic as well — and it seems likely that at least some Republicans voted Democratic,” Jewett said.

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House Speaker-designate Sam Garrison, R-Fleming Island, who led GOP efforts for the House special elections, issued a statement Tuesday night that Republican Jon Maples ran an “extremely strong campaign” for the Palm Beach County seat, but faced “low Republican turnout due to awkward special election timing,” and also questioned “despicable, dark-money” attacks against the candidate. 

Garrison added, “We will learn from today’s results and see you in November.”

Florida Republican and Democratic party chairs react to the election’s results 

Republican Party of Florida Chairman Evan Power said the party is “proud” of its special election candidates and will continue to “engage, mobilize and lead.”

“Republicans are leading on the issues that matter the most to Floridians — public safety, economic growth, meaningful property tax reform, expanded school choice, and strong environmental stewardship,” Power said in a statement. “Our record isn’t just strong, it is unmatched. With a Republican voter registration advantage of nearly 1.5 million, we are well-positioned and fully energized as we head toward November.”

Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried hopes the result makes Republican lawmakers pause as they approach Gov. Ron DeSantis’ call for a special session to redraw congressional district lines the week of April 20.

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“Voters are tired of one-party rule and attempts to steal their votes,” Fried said in a conference call Wednesday with reporters. “They are tired of the skyrocketing costs and the chaos in the news this year.”

Fried also said the state party, which still faces a need to cut into the Republican supermajorities in the Legislature in the fall election, has been on the phones with national Democratic groups that have disengaged from Florida politics the past couple of cycles.



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