ATLANTA — If the Braves were going to get where they wanted to be this year — back in the postseason and playing deeper in October than the past three years — they needed starters Chris Sale, Reynaldo López and Spencer Schwellenbach to stay healthy, and the other member of their rotation, Spencer Strider, to come back strong from elbow surgery in 2024.

Absolutely none of that happened.

But to be fair, so many Braves hitters were either bad, banged up or suspended (looking at you, Profar) for much of the season that it might not have mattered anyway. It was a disaster of a season, relatively speaking.

Since we know Atlanta’s run of seven consecutive postseason appearances is about to end — they beat the Mets 4-3 on Jurickson Profar’s two-out, two-run single in the eighth inning Sunday to avoid being swept — we’ll focus these takeaways on keys to the Braves’ getting things back on track next season.

Rotation, rotation, rotation

The rotation is likely to look much the same next season, with Sale, Schwellenbach and Strider back alongside López — unless the Braves do what I think they should and convert him back to a high-leverage bullpen role, where he’d have a better chance to stay healthy.

Sale started slow this season but returned to dominance — posting a 1.41 ERA over 11 starts with 90 strikeouts in 70 1/3 innings — before a freak fractured-ribs injury while diving to field a grounder. He’s made three rehab starts and is set to return from the IL Saturday at Philadelphia.

Schwellenbach was 6-1 with a 2.60 ERA over his final 10 starts before a season-ending fractured elbow, and the Braves saw no point in rushing him back given their position. He should be completely recovered before spring training, ready to resume a most promising career that’s seen him post a 3.23 ERA in his first 38 starts, after making only two minor league starts above High A.

Switch López to a setup or closer role — one less move to make in an offseason when the Braves will need to add multiple relievers — and replace him in the rotation with rookie sensation Hurston Waldrep, and you’re one starter away from completing a deep, dynamic rotation.

That’s assuming Strider can return to something resembling his 2022-2023 form, when he led the majors with 483 strikeouts in 318 1/3 innings and went 31-10 with a 3.36 ERA. More on that in a moment.

Add a proven veteran for depth — the kind of signing Charlie Morton might’ve been last winter — and you’re set. Younger arms, namely top prospect JR Ritchie, could be plugged into the rotation at some point, as injuries can and almost always do happen.

Cornerstones must play like it

The Braves need more key returners to stay healthy, including superstar Ronald Acuña Jr., who’ll be another year removed from his second ACL surgery, and Austin Riley, who’s had consecutive injury-shortened, slump-plagued seasons after being one of baseball’s most productive third baseman in the prior three seasons.

Matt Olson has had another All-Star season, with reduced home runs (19) and slugging but a .362 OBP, league-leading 34 doubles and 128 OPS+ that was just six points below his career mark.

If Acuña and Olson have been solid contributors, the same can’t be said for Riley, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II and Sean Murphy, all of whom struggled offensively for significant stretches. Harris’ torrid second half can’t erase his alarmingly awful first 90 games.

Over the past two seasons, whether due to injuries, slumps, or whatever, none of those four has performed to expectations as players signed to long-term contract extensions by the Braves early in their careers or, in Murphy’s case, after being acquired via trade.

The Braves need them to step it up in 2026, since they’re locked into long-term deals with Riley, Harris and Murphy — assuming they don’t trade Murphy, which they shouldn’t, since he and Drake Baldwin form a major team strength at catcher and could also handle the bulk of DH duties between them next season.

And with Profar owed $15 million each of the next two seasons in the three-year, $42 million deal, it’s unlikely they could trade him if they wanted to, after his PED suspension only supported the opinion of many that his career-best power numbers in his age-31 season with San Diego in 2024 were substance-aided.

It seems likely Albies will be back, since his affordable $7 million team option comes with a pricey $4 million buyout. But his offense has declined steadily, with his .849 OPS and 126 OPS+ in 2023 standing as his only season in the past four in which he posted an OPS as high as .710 or an OPS+ higher than 93.

Considering a 100 OPS+ is the baseline for an average MLB player, that’s unacceptable. Albies has hit just .229 with a .629 OPS this season with a 77 OPS+, all of which would be career lows. He’s 28 but has played like a post-peak player, and has one of the worst throwing arms in baseball.

The Braves must upgrade their offense up the middle. Shortstop Nick Allen is a Gold Glove-caliber defender with an awful .542 OPS; he should be a utility infielder next season.

Only if they get a serious bat for shortstop could they justify having Albies back at second base, and even then, it would probably be because of his contract and his track record — two Silver Slugger Awards, three All-Star appearances — and the hope he could get back to some semblance of that.

Spencer Strider has a 15.43 ERA in his past three starts, allowing 20 hits and seven homers in 11 2/3 innings. (Dale Zanine / Imagn Images)

Strider situation

When Strider had a Braves-record 16 strikeouts in September 2022 against Colorado in his 17th career start, he was a two-pitch pitcher with a fastball that averaged 98.2 mph — the 97^th percentile in MLB — plus a slider and only occasional changeups.

When he led MLB with 20 wins and 281 strikeouts in 186 2/3 innings in 2023 in his first full season as a starter, his fastball averaged 97.2 mph, still the 92^nd percentile.

Combined with his height (5 feet 11), which is short for a power pitcher, and extension (7.1 feet down the mound slope), which is long for any pitcher but extraordinarily so for someone of his stature, the effect of his overpowering stuff and release point gave Strider a unique weapon: a fastball that appeared to defy gravity and rise, that “giddyup” making it all but unhittable.

The vertical drop of Strider’s fastball in 2023 was 10.6 inches, or 2.5 inches below (better) than MLB average. And the induced vertical break (IVB) of his fastball, a stat used by Fangraphs to quantify a pitcher’s ability to defy gravity — creating the illusion of rise with a fastball — was a stunning 18.4 inches, or 2.6 inches above average.

Compare those stats to this season, Strider’s first back from his second major elbow surgery, and one can understand why those fastballs up in the zone, which used to miss so many bats, are being hit hard.

Strider’s fastball has averaged 95.6 mph, his extension 6.9 feet (still very good, but more than two inches below 2023). His vertical drop is 13.7, basically average by MLB standards and three inches more drop than his fastballs in 2023.

The IVB of his fastball is 16.3, which is a half-inch above average, compared to his 2.6 inches above average in 2023.

This is what Strider referenced when he described last week why he’s struggled to such a degree, posting a 15.43 ERA in his past three starts with 20 hits and seven homers in 11 2/3 innings, a lot of that damage coming against fastballs.

“I can’t compete in the strike zone, and that’s it. My fastball just isn’t getting outs,” he said. “It’s not a contact pitch and it’s not moving the way that I need it to move. When I can’t throw my fastball in the strike zone, obviously that gives the hitters a leg up. And then my slider is an effective pitch, but not if I’m behind in counts or not making guys swing. And then inevitably if I throw it in the zone, it’s getting crushed. And that’s my fault. Not executing it has nothing to do with anybody but me.”

Strider starts Monday’s series opener at Miami. He knows that getting his fastball back to previous form is something that will likely take time as he distances himself from surgery, not to be corrected quickly in the four or five days between starts.

“If I had an answer, I’d certainly have done it by now,” he said. “But it’s not a simple concept. It technically is very close, but close in baseball obviously is a world of difference. I think even independent of the fastball movement not being where it needs to be, I can still execute it better than I am. But the reason it’s not moving the way I need it to move is because I’m not moving the way I need to move, and that makes executing hard.”

(Top photo of Hurston Waldrep and Sean Murphy: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)