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Tennessee vs. Arkansas score prediction by expert football model

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Tennessee vs. Arkansas score prediction by expert football model


No. 12 Tennessee and Arkansas square off from Rocky Top in college football’s Week 7 action on Saturday. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that simulates games and projects scores.

Tennessee is just a field goal away from being undefeated after its loss against Georgia, but improved to 4-1 on the year after defeating UAB and Mississippi State in response, although the Vols needed overtime to win the latter game on the road.

Arkansas made an early-season coaching change after dumping Sam Pittman following an ugly loss to Notre Dame, with former Hogs head coach Bobby Petrino back in the saddle and with a chance to prove he should have the job again.

What do the analytics suggest for when the Volunteers and Razorbacks meet in this SEC clash?

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For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Tennessee and Arkansas compare in this Week 7 college football game.

As expected, the models are signaling the Vols are a big favorite over the Hogs.

SP+ predicts that Tennessee will defeat Arkansas by a projected score of 38 to 24 and will win the game by 13.5 points in the process.

The model gives the Vols a confident 80 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

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How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 144-152 against the spread with a 48.6 win percentage. Last week, it was 25-25 (50%) in its picks against the spread.

The books call Big Orange a solid favorite over the Razorbacks this weekend.

Tennessee is a 12.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering the weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 68.5 points for the matchup.

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And it set the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -450 and for Arkansas at +350 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take…

The game’s implied score suggests a comfortable win for the Volunteers.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Tennessee will defeat Arkansas by a projected score of 41 to 28.

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Most other analytical football models also favor the Vols over the Razorbacks.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Tennessee is a notable favorite in the matchup, coming out ahead in 82.6 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves Arkansas as the presumptive winner in the remaining 17.4 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? This model foresees a closer result, but still in the Vols’ favor.

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Tennessee is projected to be 10.8 points better than Arkansas on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 74 percent of all games and hit 38 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

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Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks



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George Dunklin’s legacy of conservation in Arkansas | Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette

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George Dunklin’s legacy of conservation in Arkansas | Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette


Rex Nelson

[email protected]

Rex Nelson has been senior editor and columnist at the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette since 2017, and he has a biweekly podcast called “Southern Fried.”

After graduating from Ouachita Baptist University in 1981, he was a sportswriter for the Arkansas Democrat for a year before becoming editor of Arkadelphia’s Daily Siftings Herald. He was the youngest editor of a daily in Arkansas at age 23. Rex was then news and sports director at KVRC-KDEL from 1983-1985.

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He returned to the Democrat as assistant sports editor in 1985. From 1986-1989, he was its Washington correspondent. He left to be Jackson T. Stephens’ consultant.

Rex became the Democrat-Gazette’s first political editor in 1992, but left in 1996 to join then-Gov. Mike Huckabee’s office. He also served from 2005-09 in the administration of President George W. Bush.

From 2009-2018, he worked stints at the Communications Group, Arkansas’ Independent Colleges and Universities, and Simmons First National Corp.



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Hogs Look to Rebound After Midweek Split with Arkansas State

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Hogs Look to Rebound After Midweek Split with Arkansas State


Arkansas got a quick reminder this week that baseball doesn’t hand out easy wins.

The Razorbacks head into the weekend after splitting a midweek set with Arkansas State, a two-game stretch that showed both the highs and lows of early season baseball.

Now, the Hogs turn the page and prepare to host UT Arlington in a three-game series at Baum-Walker Stadium.

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Arkansas enters the weekend 7-2 overall. UT Arlington comes in at 2-6. First pitch Friday is set for 3 p.m., with Saturday at 2 p.m. and Sunday at 1 p.m. Friday’s game will stream on SEC Network+.

Midweek Split Shows Two Sides of Arkansas

The midweek matchup with Arkansas State didn’t go the way the Razorbacks expected at first. In Game 1, Arkansas State won 12-4. It marked the first loss to the Red Wolves in program history.

The Hogs struggled on the mound and couldn’t keep pace as Arkansas State built separation. The result was a reminder that even in-state games can turn quickly if things slip early.

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But 24 hours later, Arkansas looked like a different team.

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In Game 2, the Razorbacks leaned on dominant pitching and edged Arkansas State 1-0 in a tight contest. It was the kind of bounce-back performance coaches want to see after a tough loss.

The split left Arkansas with lessons on both sides — how quickly things can unravel and how steady pitching can win a game even when runs are hard to find.

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Home Comfort at Baum-Walker Stadium

Now the Razorbacks return to Baum-Walker Stadium looking to build momentum.

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The Hogs have been strong at home and will try to use that setting to steady the ship after the midweek ups and downs. Playing in Fayetteville gives Arkansas a familiar environment and a chance to settle into its routine.

UT Arlington, meanwhile, is coming off a rough stretch. The Mavericks lost their midweek game to Dallas Baptist 6-1 and were swept in a weekend series against Lamar after winning the opener 10-2 before dropping the next two games.

Arkansas has the edge historically, leading the all-time series 7-1. The teams haven’t met since 2006, when the Razorbacks swept a series in Honolulu. This will be the first time UT Arlington plays in Fayetteville.

Pitching Matchups to Watch

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The Hogs will roll out a strong weekend rotation.

Friday’s starter is right-hander Gabe Gaeckle (1-0, 1.93 ERA). He’ll face UT Arlington right-hander Caylon Dygert (0-0, 1.80 ERA). That matchup could set the tone for the series opener.

On Saturday, left-hander Hunter Dietz (0-1, 9.00 ERA) is scheduled to pitch for Arkansas against Dylan Skolfield (0-2, 6.48 ERA) for the Mavericks.

Sunday’s game will feature left-hander Colin Fisher (1-0, 0.00 ERA) for the Razorbacks. UT Arlington has not yet named a starter for the series finale.

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After seeing how important pitching was in the 1-0 win over Arkansas State, Arkansas will look for more steady outings from its starters and bullpen.

Finding Consistency Early

Through nine games, the Hogs have shown flashes of strong offense and solid pitching. But the midweek split showed that consistency is still forming.

The loss to Arkansas State proved that mistakes can pile up fast. The narrow win that followed showed that disciplined pitching and defense can close out tight games.

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This weekend gives Arkansas another chance to sharpen its approach before the schedule gets tougher later in the season.

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For fans, the path to watching is simple. Friday’s game streams on SEC Network+, and radio coverage will be available in Fayetteville on 92.1 FM and AM 1590, along with other affiliates across the state.

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No. 1 Arkansas leads SEC Indoor after first day finals

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No. 1 Arkansas leads SEC Indoor after first day finals



COLLEGE STATION – A victory in the 5,000m by Nick Busienei and third place in the distance medley relay had No. 1 Arkansas leading the team score with 18 points on the first day of the SEC Indoor Championships.

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The Razorbacks produced 12 of those points in the 5,000m as Nick Busienei won the race in a meet record of 13;31.86, which ranks him No. 7 on the UA all-time list. Busienei bettered the meet record of 13:37.52 set by Razorback Patrick Kiprop in 2025.

James Sankei added two more points in placing seventh with a time of 13:44.57.

Dating back to 1992 when Arkansas competed in its first SEC Indoor meet, Busienei claimed the 21st title for the program and is the 14th Razorback to win the indoor 5,000m.

Six more points were added in the distance medley relay as Arkansas posted a time of 9:30.84 from the foursome of Owan Logorodi (2:58.46), Zyaire Nuriddin (46.51), Julian Carter (1:49.10), and Brian Masai (3:56.77).

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South Carolina won the race in 9:30.08 with Ole Miss runner-up in 9:30.34. Florida originally placed third in 9:30.37 but was disqualified for spiking the baton at the conclusion of the race.

Jelani Watkins led the Razorback crew in the 200m prelims as three Arkansas sprinters advanced to the final. Watkins produced an indoor career best of 20.42 rank second overall to a 20.38 by Florida’s Wayna McCoy. Watkins remains No. 2 on the UA all-time list as he improved his previous time of 20.43.

Dapriest Hogans followed with a 20.63 that equaled his career best and his No. 8 ranking on the UA all-time list. Tevijon Williams clocked 20.65 to reach the final where 20.71 was the cutoff time. Jamarion Stubbs ran 20.87 in his prelim heat.

Cooper Williams completed the first day of the heptathlon in sixth place with 2,862 points. He started with a 7.43 in the 60m (736), then added a 21-9.5 (6.64) long jump (729). In the shot put, a mark of 36-8.25 (11.18) picked up 557 points. Williams wrapped up day one by topping the field in the high jump with a clearance of 6-8.25 for 840 points.

Link Lindsey placed 15 in the long jump with a mark of 23-6.75 (7.18).

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