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Tennessee vs. Arkansas score prediction by expert football model

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Tennessee vs. Arkansas score prediction by expert football model


No. 12 Tennessee and Arkansas square off from Rocky Top in college football’s Week 7 action on Saturday. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that simulates games and projects scores.

Tennessee is just a field goal away from being undefeated after its loss against Georgia, but improved to 4-1 on the year after defeating UAB and Mississippi State in response, although the Vols needed overtime to win the latter game on the road.

Arkansas made an early-season coaching change after dumping Sam Pittman following an ugly loss to Notre Dame, with former Hogs head coach Bobby Petrino back in the saddle and with a chance to prove he should have the job again.

What do the analytics suggest for when the Volunteers and Razorbacks meet in this SEC clash?

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For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Tennessee and Arkansas compare in this Week 7 college football game.

As expected, the models are signaling the Vols are a big favorite over the Hogs.

SP+ predicts that Tennessee will defeat Arkansas by a projected score of 38 to 24 and will win the game by 13.5 points in the process.

The model gives the Vols a confident 80 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

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How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 144-152 against the spread with a 48.6 win percentage. Last week, it was 25-25 (50%) in its picks against the spread.

The books call Big Orange a solid favorite over the Razorbacks this weekend.

Tennessee is a 12.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering the weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 68.5 points for the matchup.

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And it set the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -450 and for Arkansas at +350 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take…

The game’s implied score suggests a comfortable win for the Volunteers.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Tennessee will defeat Arkansas by a projected score of 41 to 28.

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Most other analytical football models also favor the Vols over the Razorbacks.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Tennessee is a notable favorite in the matchup, coming out ahead in 82.6 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves Arkansas as the presumptive winner in the remaining 17.4 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? This model foresees a closer result, but still in the Vols’ favor.

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Tennessee is projected to be 10.8 points better than Arkansas on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 74 percent of all games and hit 38 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

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Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks



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Arkansas Bested by Mizzou on Sunday

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Arkansas Bested by Mizzou on Sunday


It was a tight battle all the way through, but ultimately No. 7 Missouri took down No. 8 Arkansas in Sunday’s SEC dual, 197.425-197.225.

There was plenty for the Gymbacks to be proud of in the meet, starting with the all-around performance of freshman Allison Cucci. She earned a new career high of 39.500, good for the all-around crown and the highest of any freshman in the nation this season. Cucci also tied for first on vault (9.900) and got second on beam (9.925).

Redshirt junior had a fantastic outing as a floor specialist and scored a 9.900 on vault and 9.925 on floor. Both marks were good for a share of first place on the events. Senior Morgan Price earned a big 9.925 at bars anchor, which tied for first on the event.

The last two events of the day kept Arkansas in contention with Mizzou, as the Gymbacks went 49.425 on both floor and beam, the latter a season high.

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Bars

After a 9.675 from Joscelyn Roberson in the lead-off spot, Hailey Klein got the Gymbacks on pace again with a 9.875. Avery King made her collegiate debut next and delivered a great 9.825 routine in a last-minute situation. Her fellow freshmen Avalon Campbell and Allison Cucci went next and scored a 9.750 and 9.800, respectively. Morgan Price anchored with the energy Arkansas needed and capped her routine with a stick to score 9.925. Arkansas finished the bars rotation with a 49.175.

Vault

Cami Weaver and Leah Smith opened the vault rotation with Yurchenko fulls, scoring 9.800 and 9.750. Cucci and Klein were the team’s first 1.5s of the day, and the two scored 9.875 and 9.800, respectively. Lauren Williams went 9.875 in the fifth position and Morgan Price earned a 9.850. The Gymbacks scored 49.200 total on vault.

Floor

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Arkansas started out floor with a 9.825 from Hailey Klein and a 9.850 from Cami Weaver. Cucci then broke into the 9.900 range with a new career high 9.900 midway through the rotation. Smith went 9.850 in the fourth position, keeping Arkansas on pace. Williams and Roberson closed the rotation strong with scores of 9.925 and 9.900, which pushed the Gymbacks’ floor total to 49.425.

Beam

Madison Gustitus began the beam rotation with a 9.775, and Priscilla Park went 9.875 next for the Gymbacks. Klein concluded her all-around day with a 9.850 on beam midway through the final rotation. Cucci came up next and got a huge 9.925, a new personal best for her. Weaver followed with a 9.875, which brought Roberson up to anchor. She did her usual and scored a 9.900, and Arkansas closed the meet with a 49.425 event score on beam, a new season high.

Up Next

Arkansas returns to Bud Walton Arena for its home finale against No. 1 Oklahoma on Friday, March 6. The meet has been deemed a White Out, and the team is pushing fans to help break the NCAA gymnastics attendance record, which is currently just over 16,000. It will also be Senior Night, honoring a fantastic class of Razorbacks. Action is set for 7:15 p.m. and tickets are available online, by phone, or in person. The meet will be streamed live on SEC Network+.

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More Information

Visit ArkansasRazorbacks.com for the latest information on all things Arkansas Gymnastics. You can also find the Razorbacks on social media by liking us on Facebook (Arkansas Razorback Gymnastics) and following us on Twitter and Instagram (@RazorbackGym).



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OPINION | WALLY HALL: Arkansas will need more than Robinson’s coerced contribution | Arkansas Democrat Gazette

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OPINION | WALLY HALL: Arkansas will need more than Robinson’s coerced contribution | Arkansas Democrat Gazette


Wally Hall

whall@adgnewsroom.com

Wally Hall is assistant managing sports editor for the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. A graduate of the University of Arkansas-Little Rock after an honorable discharge from the U.S. Air Force, he is a member and past president of the Football Writers Association of America, member of the U.S. Basketball Writers Association, past president and current executive committee and board member of the Arkansas Sports Hall of Fame, and voter for the Heisman Trophy. He has been awarded Arkansas Sportswriter of the Year 10 times and has been inducted into the Arkansas Sports Hall of Fame and Arkansas Sportswriters and Sportscasters Hall of Fame.

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Who is Taylen Green? Arkansas QB dazzles with record-setting NFL combine performance

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Who is Taylen Green? Arkansas QB dazzles with record-setting NFL combine performance


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Move over, Anthony Richardson. There’s a new quarterback athletic marvel at the NFL scouting combine.

On Saturday in Indianapolis, Arkansas’ Taylen Green broke Richardson’s top marks at the position since 2003 for both the vertical leap and broad jump. Green’s 43½-inch vertical topped Richardson’s previous high by three inches, while his 11-2 broad jump beat the Indianapolis Colts signal-caller’s measurement by five inches.

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Then, Green reeled off a 4.36-second 40-yard dash time. That stood as the second-best time for any quarterback since 2003, trailing only Reggie McNeal in 2006 (4.35 seconds). Richardson, for comparison, logged a 4.43-second mark in 2023.

Green didn’t even bother with a second attempt after his initial time.

The testing profile created quite the stir around the 6-6, 227-pound passer, who had widely projected as a developmental option for teams on Day 3.

NFL Network’s Charles Davis said Green told him that no teams had approached him about working out as a receiver, adding that he would not be interested in a position switch.

Green started for the Razorbacks for the last two seasons after playing the first three years of his career at Boise State. Known for his running ability and ample arm strength, Green threw for 2,714 yards and 19 touchdowns last year while adding 777 yards and eight scores on the ground.

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It was a banner day for Arkansas, as running back Mike Washington Jr. also stood out among his peers with a group-leading 4.33-second 40-yard dash as well as strong marks in the vertical leap (39 inches) and broad jump (10-8).



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