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SEC tiebreaker scenarios favor Texas vs. Alabama championship game

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SEC tiebreaker scenarios favor Texas vs. Alabama championship game


Much of the week has been spent pouring over SEC tiebreaker rules and trying to apply them to the season’s remaining regular season games. Before Saturday’s slate of games, one very realistic scenario had an eight-team first place SEC tie going down. Does a five-way tie change much?

Going into today’s action, if every SEC favorite won over the next three weeks and Arkansas beats Missouri, it would be LSU is in the SEC Championship Game vs. the winner of Texas and A&M.

That won’t happen now. LSU laid another huge egg in Gainesville in a 27-16 loss to the Gators. This was LSU’s third loss in a row, third conference loss and fourth loss on the season. The Tigers are out of any consideration for the postseason beyond bowl games.

While LSU’s loss clears up some of the SEC playoff picture, Georgia’s win over Tennessee actually muddles it a little more.

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A Tennessee win would have basically eliminated the Georgia Bulldogs and given the Vols a very clear path to the SEC championship game. Instead, Georgia’s 31-17 win over Tennessee leaves the ‘Dawgs alive for the SEC title game. The Vols join the group with two losses.

ATHENS, GEORGIA – NOVEMBER 16: Head coach Josh Heupel of the Tennessee Volunteers shakes hands with head coach Kirby Smart of the Georgia Bulldogs following the game at Sanford Stadium on November 16, 2024 in Athens, Georgia. Georgia defeated Tennessee 31-17. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

The SEC teams with two losses are Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Alabama. There are two teams with only one SEC loss — Texas and Texas A&M.

Obviously, the Horns and Aggies play each other so it is only possible for one team to end the season with one SEC loss. There could be zero one-loss teams since Texas and A&M each have a conference game to play before facing each other Thanksgiving weekend. (Trap game alert!)

None of the two-loss teams play each other over the next couple of weeks in conference. In fact, Georgia is actually done with its conference schedule.

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Unless there’s a major upset, there would a single one-loss team and five two-loss teams. The two-loss teams will be subject to the SEC tiebreaker rules to produce a champ.

Since Texas is favored in both of its final two games, let’s assume the Longhorns win out and make it to Atlanta. (Obviously, there is much work to do)

SEC tiebreaker rules:

  1. Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
  2. Record vs. common conference opponents
  3. Record against the high-place opponent among the tied teams
  4. Cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents

SEC common opponents:

There are too many teams to apply head-to-head. For the second tiebreaker, if applied to the five two-loss teams, the records would be Ole Miss (1-0), Alabama (1-1), Tennessee (1-1), Georgia (1-2) and Texas A&M (0-0).

  • Alabama: beat Georgia but lost to Tennessee
  • Georgia: beat Tennessee but lost to Ole Miss and Alabama
  • Ole Miss: beat Georgia
  • Tennessee: beat Alabama but lost to Georgia
  • Texas A&M: hasn’t played any of the other two-loss tied teams

Future SEC Opponents:

  • Alabama: Oklahoma (Away), Auburn (Home)
  • Georgia: Done
  • Ole Miss: Florida (Away), Mississippi State (Home)
  • Tennessee: Vanderbilt (Away)
  • Texas A&M: Auburn (Away), Texas (Home)

There is no round robin or common opponent for all five teams.

Cumulative conference winning percentage:

That means the deciding tiebreaker would be cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents for the five tied teams. Alabama currently leads those percentages.

  1. Alabama (27-26, .509)
  2. Georgia (23-28, .451)
  3. Texas A&M (23-29, .442)
  4. Ole Miss (22-33, .400)
  5. Tennessee (21-32, .396)

Most Likely SEC Championship Matchup:

Under those circumstances, the SEC championship game opponents would be Texas and Alabama.

But the percentages could change. If Mississippi State upsets Mizzou next week it could actually change a lot. And as we’ve seen, upsets do happen. This entire model could be thrown out by next Saturday night.



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Alabama

Takeaways from The Associated Press' reporting on prison labor in Alabama

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Takeaways from The Associated Press' reporting on prison labor in Alabama


DADEVILLE, Ala. — No state has a longer, more profit-driven history of contracting prisoners out to private companies than Alabama. With a sprawling labor system that dates back more than 150 years — including the brutal convict leasing era that replaced slavery — it has constructed a template for the commercialization of mass incarceration.

Best Western, Bama Budweiser and Burger King are among the more than 500 businesses to lease incarcerated workers from one of the most violent, overcrowded and unruly prison systems in the U.S. in the past five years alone, The Associated Press found as part of a two-year investigation into prison labor. The cheap, reliable labor force has generated more than $250 million for the state since 2000 — money garnished from prisoners’ paychecks.

Here are highlights from the AP’s reporting:

Where are the jobs and what do they pay?

Most jobs are inside facilities, where the state’s inmates — who are disproportionately Black — can be sentenced to hard labor and forced to work for free doing everything from mopping floors to laundry. But in the past five years alone, more than 10,000 inmates have logged a combined 17 million work hours outside Alabama’s prison walls, for entities like city and county governments and businesses that range from major car-part manufacturers and meat-processing plants to distribution centers for major retailers like Walmart, the AP determined.

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While those working at private companies can at least earn a little money, they face possible punishment if they refuse, from being denied family visits to being sent to high-security prisons, which are so dangerous that the federal government filed a lawsuit four years ago that remains pending, calling the treatment of prisoners unconstitutional.

Turning down work can jeopardize chances of early release in a state that last year granted parole to only 8% of eligible prisoners — an all-time low, and among the worst rates nationwide — though that number more than doubled this year after public outcry.

What is oversight like for the prisoners?

Unlike many states, those working among the civilian population include men and women with records for violent crimes like murder and assault. Many are serving 15 years or longer.

It’s not unusual for Alabama prisoners to work outside their facilities without any correctional oversight. And in some cases, there is no supervision of any kind, which has led to escapes, often referred to as “walkaways.”

Kelly Betts of the corrections department defended the work programs, calling them crucial to the success of inmates preparing to leave prison. But she acknowledged that even those sentenced to life without the possibility of parole are eligible for so-called work release jobs.

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“Each inmate’s situation is unique, and each inmate is evaluated on his or her own record,” Betts said.

Most companies did not respond to requests for comment, Those that did said they had policies against the use of forced labor and prison labor and would investigate.

How much money does this involve?

As part of its investigation, the AP analyzed 20 years of Alabama corrections department monthly statistical reports to calculate the more than $250 million generated for the state since 2000 — money taken in via contracts with private companies and deductions taken out of prisoners’ paychecks.

Reporters also parsed information from more than 83,000 pages of data obtained through a public records request, including the names of inmates involved in Alabama’s work programs. Over the past five years, prisoners were hired by public employers — working at landfills and even the governor’s mansion — and by around at least 500 private companies. That information was cross-referenced with an online state database, detailing the crimes that landed people in prison, their sentences, time served, race and good-time credits earned and revoked.

What do prisoner advocates say?

Few prisoner advocates believe outside jobs should be abolished. In Alabama, for instance, those shifts can offer a reprieve from the excessive violence inside the state’s institutions. Last year, and in the first six months of 2024, an Alabama inmate died behind bars nearly every day, a rate five times the national average.

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But advocates say incarcerated workers should be paid fair wages, given the choice to work without threat of punishment, and granted the same workplace rights and protections guaranteed to other Americans.

Prisoners nationwide cannot organize, protest or strike for better conditions. They also aren’t typically classified as employees, whether they’re working inside correctional facilities or for outside businesses through prison contracts or work release programs. And unless they are able to prove “willful negligence,” it is almost impossible to successfully sue when incarcerated workers are hurt or killed.

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AP data journalists Arushi Gupta and Larry Fenn contributed to this report.

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The Associated Press receives support from the Public Welfare Foundation for reporting focused on criminal justice. This story also was supported by Columbia University’s Ira A. Lipman Center for Journalism and Civil and Human Rights in conjunction with Arnold Ventures. The AP is solely responsible for all content.



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Alabama signee Keelon Russell shows off Gatorade National POY jacket at Dallas Mavericks game

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Alabama signee Keelon Russell shows off Gatorade National POY jacket at Dallas Mavericks game


American Airlines Center played host to the Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday night. A few big-time stars were in the arena as well, watching what eventually turned into a win for Los Angeles. One was Alabama signee Keelon Russell, who was recently named the Gatorade National Player of the Year.

Multiple perks come with winning the award but one of the best may be a custom letterman jacket. The Mavericks posted a video of Russell in the jacket on their Instagram page, something only he can own.

On the right side of his chest, POY is there. Russell then turns over a little bit and shows the Gatorade logo. You can even see his No. 12 on the bottom half, a number he will likely continue to wear once arriving in Tuscaloosa to play for Kalen DeBoer.

You can check out the full video via the Mavs’ Instagram here, it’s the third slide.

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Russell played high school football at Duncanville (TX), where he was a Five-Star Plus+ prospect. He was the No. 2 overall recruit in the 2025 cycle, according to the On3 Industry Ranking, a weighted average that utilizes all four major recruiting media companies.

The stats throughout the 2024 season were incredible, throwing for 4,177 yards, 55 touchdowns, and just four interceptions while completing 69.5% of his throws. Nearly 300 yards per game in a senior season very few quarterbacks across the country can compete with.

The season just ended for Russell, with Duncanville losing in the 6A-DI semifinals to North Crowley. Getting to and winning another state championship game was the goal but the Panthers fell a couple of games short. Instead, North Crowley will face Austin (TX) Westlake for the crown in Texas’ top classification at AT&T Stadium.

Now, all focus is on getting to Tuscaloosa and getting his college career started with Alabama. DeBoer flipped Russell from SMU over the summer and has only seen his stock soar.





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UNC, Bill Belichick land ex-Alabama offensive tackle

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UNC, Bill Belichick land ex-Alabama offensive tackle


Not many will get to say they played for Nick Saban and Bill Belichick in college.

In fact, Miles McVay might end up being the only one.

McVay, the second-year offensive tackle, will transfer to UNC after spending two seasons with the Crimson Tide, McVay told On3.

McVay is a former four-star offensive tackle in the 2023 recruiting class from East St. Louis, Illinois. He is listed at 6-6, 342 pounds.

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McVay saw time in four games as a freshman in 2023, in which he ultimately redshirted. Then in his second season for Alabama, McVay played in all 12 games, primarily on special teams. But he also received some offensive snaps against Western Kentucky, Wisconsin, Missouri, LSU and Mercer.

The transfer portal opened Dec. 9 and will remain open for about another week for all of college football.

Nick Kelly is an Alabama beat writer for AL.com and the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on X and Instagram.





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