Much of the week has been spent pouring over SEC tiebreaker rules and trying to apply them to the season’s remaining regular season games. Before Saturday’s slate of games, one very realistic scenario had an eight-team first place SEC tie going down. Does a five-way tie change much?
Going into today’s action, if every SEC favorite won over the next three weeks and Arkansas beats Missouri, it would be LSU is in the SEC Championship Game vs. the winner of Texas and A&M.
That won’t happen now. LSU laid another huge egg in Gainesville in a 27-16 loss to the Gators. This was LSU’s third loss in a row, third conference loss and fourth loss on the season. The Tigers are out of any consideration for the postseason beyond bowl games.
While LSU’s loss clears up some of the SEC playoff picture, Georgia’s win over Tennessee actually muddles it a little more.
A Tennessee win would have basically eliminated the Georgia Bulldogs and given the Vols a very clear path to the SEC championship game. Instead, Georgia’s 31-17 win over Tennessee leaves the ‘Dawgs alive for the SEC title game. The Vols join the group with two losses.
ATHENS, GEORGIA – NOVEMBER 16: Head coach Josh Heupel of the Tennessee Volunteers shakes hands with head coach Kirby Smart of the Georgia Bulldogs following the game at Sanford Stadium on November 16, 2024 in Athens, Georgia. Georgia defeated Tennessee 31-17. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
The SEC teams with two losses are Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Alabama. There are two teams with only one SEC loss — Texas and Texas A&M.
Obviously, the Horns and Aggies play each other so it is only possible for one team to end the season with one SEC loss. There could be zero one-loss teams since Texas and A&M each have a conference game to play before facing each other Thanksgiving weekend. (Trap game alert!)
None of the two-loss teams play each other over the next couple of weeks in conference. In fact, Georgia is actually done with its conference schedule.
Unless there’s a major upset, there would a single one-loss team and five two-loss teams. The two-loss teams will be subject to the SEC tiebreaker rules to produce a champ.
Since Texas is favored in both of its final two games, let’s assume the Longhorns win out and make it to Atlanta. (Obviously, there is much work to do)
SEC tiebreaker rules:
- Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
- Record vs. common conference opponents
- Record against the high-place opponent among the tied teams
- Cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents
SEC common opponents:
There are too many teams to apply head-to-head. For the second tiebreaker, if applied to the five two-loss teams, the records would be Ole Miss (1-0), Alabama (1-1), Tennessee (1-1), Georgia (1-2) and Texas A&M (0-0).
- Alabama: beat Georgia but lost to Tennessee
- Georgia: beat Tennessee but lost to Ole Miss and Alabama
- Ole Miss: beat Georgia
- Tennessee: beat Alabama but lost to Georgia
- Texas A&M: hasn’t played any of the other two-loss tied teams
Future SEC Opponents:
- Alabama: Oklahoma (Away), Auburn (Home)
- Georgia: Done
- Ole Miss: Florida (Away), Mississippi State (Home)
- Tennessee: Vanderbilt (Away)
- Texas A&M: Auburn (Away), Texas (Home)
There is no round robin or common opponent for all five teams.
Cumulative conference winning percentage:
That means the deciding tiebreaker would be cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents for the five tied teams. Alabama currently leads those percentages.
- Alabama (27-26, .509)
- Georgia (23-28, .451)
- Texas A&M (23-29, .442)
- Ole Miss (22-33, .400)
- Tennessee (21-32, .396)
Most Likely SEC Championship Matchup:
Under those circumstances, the SEC championship game opponents would be Texas and Alabama.
But the percentages could change. If Mississippi State upsets Mizzou next week it could actually change a lot. And as we’ve seen, upsets do happen. This entire model could be thrown out by next Saturday night.
