Science
What makes the Omicron variant spread so easily?
The Omicron variant arrived in the US proper round Thanksgiving. Lower than a month later, it’s the nation’s dominant coronavirus pressure, accounting for 73% of recent infections final week, in response to the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention.
How did that occur? Infectious illness consultants say there are two key components that decide how shortly a virus will unfold: how simply it’s transmitted and the way effectively it eludes the physique’s defenses.
Early analysis suggests Omicron has benefits in each areas. However the knowledge additionally counsel the variant’s larger fee of transmission hasn’t led to extra hospitalizations or deaths.
Preliminary outcomes from a Dec. 14 research led by Alejandro B. Balazs of the Ragon Institute in Cambridge, Mass., discovered that Omicron was twice as infectious because the Delta variant and 4 occasions extra infectious than the unique virus. That research, which has but to be peer-reviewed, relied on a comparatively small pattern of 239 sufferers in and round Boston, so the outcomes might not be consultant of Omicron’s habits normally.
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Nonetheless, stated Dr. David Delight, an infectious illness specialist at UC San Diego, “simply taking a look at [the current situation] epidemiologically, we all know one thing is means completely different this time round.”
With so many unvaccinated folks on the market, he added, “it was only a matter of time earlier than we’d see a mutated model of the virus that’s simply higher at infecting vaccinated folks.”
It’s virtually an evolutionary crucial, stated Jasmine Plummer, a analysis scientist at Cedars-Sinai Medical Heart in Los Angeles who was a part of the crew that found the Epsilon variant of the virus final winter.
“Variants come up due to viruses making an attempt to outlive,” Plummer stated. “All viruses evolve to evade their host. So we knew an Omicron was coming.”
And right here we’re.
Fast replication
One secret of Omicron’s success seems to be its means to copy quickly. Researchers from the College of Hong Kong reported that in contrast with Delta, Omicron “infects and multiplies 70 occasions sooner” within the bronchus, the principle airways into the lungs. Its benefit over the unique virus is even larger, they added. The distinction was obvious a mere 24 hours after an infection.
If that’s certainly the case, it implies that folks contaminated by the Omicron variant have much more virus of their throats ready to be expelled into the air once they exhale — and particularly once they cough or sneeze. It additionally means that they might be infectious sooner, which additionally would velocity the unfold of the illness.
One doubtlessly useful signal from the Hong Kong analysis: Omicron moved extra slowly from the throat into the lungs. Of their experiments, the scientists discovered the brand new pressure replicated within the lungs at lower than one-tenth the speed of the unique virus. That “could counsel decrease severity of illness,” in response to the college.
Delight stated Omicron is spreading extra simply inside households, suggesting the virus will get spewed into the air extra simply. One other risk is {that a} smaller quantity of Omicron is required to trigger an an infection, he stated.
There’s loads we nonetheless don’t find out about how the Omicron variant is transmitted, however the CDC expects that “anybody with Omicron an infection can unfold the virus to others, even when they’re vaccinated or don’t have signs.”
Delight put it one other means: “We all know this illness spreads through folks, thus the one option to be fairly certain you’re not going to get it’s to not be round folks.”
The spike protein
The coronavirus that causes COVID-19 employs a spike-shaped protein on its floor to penetrate wholesome cells and use them to churn out copies of itself. The vaccines out there in the US immediate the creation of antibodies that acknowledge that spike protein and goal it for destruction by the physique’s immune system.
Omicron has an unprecedented variety of mutations that have an effect on the spike. About three dozen have been tallied by Balazs and his crew, and their location suggests they make it tougher for antibodies to acknowledge an Omicron virus particle. That’s true no matter whether or not the antibodies have been generated by a vaccine or a earlier an infection, they wrote.
Researchers on the College of British Columbia in Canada examined the Omicron proteins affected by these mutations on a molecular degree. They discovered that, on stability, the modifications enabled the spike protein to bond extra strongly to human cells than the unique coronavirus might. They posted their findings on BioRXiv, a web site the place scientists search suggestions on preliminary work.
Sriram Subramaniam, the senior writer of the research, stated in an interview with the college that even small modifications within the spike protein “have doubtlessly huge implications for a way the virus is transmitted, how our physique fights it off, and the effectiveness of remedies.”
He added: “Our experiments affirm what we’re seeing in the true world — that the Omicron spike protein is much better than different variants at … evading the immunity produced by each vaccines and pure an infection.”
Subramaniam stated it was notable that the immunity generated by vaccines was more practical towards Omicron than the immunity from a earlier an infection in unvaccinated sufferers. It’s one other signal “that vaccination stays our greatest protection towards the Omicron variant,” he stated.
However that protection might not be very efficient with out a booster.
Balazs’ research discovered that the safety afforded by vaccines or a earlier coronavirus an infection was “dramatically decreased” towards Omicron. The one exception was in individuals who’d just lately acquired a booster dose of the vaccine; they “exhibited potent neutralization of Omicron,” in response to the research.
That will assist to clarify why “breakthrough” circumstances and reinfections look like rising quickly. A South African analysis crew reported on Dec. 2 greater than 35,000 COVID-19 reinfections among the many 2.8 million individuals who’d examined constructive over the earlier three months.
Science
Authorities probe whether presumptive bird flu case is connected to raw milk
Public health authorities are seeking to determine if a Marin County child stricken with flu could have potentially contracted the illness by drinking infected raw milk that was subject to a recall.
The presumptive bird flu case was announced on Friday, in a Dec. 6 Marin County health newsletter, which provided few details about the case or the county and state’s investigation.
“Since announcing multiple recalls of raw milk due to contamination with bird flu, state and local public health experts have received reports of illnesses from 10 individuals who reported drinking raw milk,” said Ali Bay, spokeswoman for the state’s public health department.
She said that initial county and state public health laboratory testing had not identified any positive bird flu infections in these individuals, but that one Marin County child who tested positive for Influenza A had recovered.
H5N1 bird flu is classified as an Influenza A virus — a group that also includes human seasonal flu viruses.
Additional testing is being conducted to assess whether the child was infected with bird flu or seasonal flu.
In a press statement released Tuesday evening, the Marin County public health officer, Lisa Santora, said the child in question “experienced fever and vomiting after drinking raw milk.”
She added that the child has recovered, “and no other family members became sick, indicating no person-to person transmission.”
On Dec. 6, the state’s health department issued an alert to healthcare providers advising them to evaluate and test for H5N1 bird flu “in people who develop flu-like symptoms after consuming raw milk.”
Santora and state officials said the risk to the public remains low.
Bay, the California Department of Public Health spokeswoman, said the state, along with Marin County Health and Human Services and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, are working collaboratively on this investigation and “will provide updates as they are available.”
In the last two weeks, state health and agriculture officials suspended and recalled infected raw milk that had made its way to grocery store shelves throughout the state.
It is unclear if people can get bird flu by consuming the virus in milk. It is thought that acids in the stomach denature the virus, said Michael Imperiale, a virologist at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor.
However, scores of barn cats, mice and other animals have been sickened — and have died — by drinking infected raw milk. Imperiale and others note that most mammals consume food differently than people, often putting their mouths and noses into their food, potentially exposing themselves via respiratory routes, as opposed to becoming infected through the gut.
It is presumed most infected dairy workers were exposed to H5N1 via milk spray in the eye or in the nose, not as a result of drinking it.
However, handling infected raw milk — wiping it on one’s hands and then nose or eyes — could provide a potential route for infection.
Since H5N1 bird flu was first identified in 1996 in birds in China’s Guangdong province, there have been few, if any, reports of people becoming sick with the disease as a result of eating or drinking it.
However, this strain of H5N1 has behaved in unpredictable ways.
Irrespective of the route of infection, Bay noted that “pasteurization kills bacteria and viruses, like influenza, in milk” and that choosing pasteurized milk and dairy products “is the best way to keep you and your family safe.”
Cooking meat and eggs thoroughly will also inactivate virus.
If confirmed, the Marin County case would be the 59th human case of H5N1 in the U.S. since the outbreak started in dairy cows in March.
It would also be the second case in California in which the source of infection has not been determined. A child in Alameda County was diagnosed with the disease last month. Genetic sequencing of that child’s virus indicates it has similarities to the strain circulating in dairy cows, known as B3.13, as opposed to the strains now moving in migrating birds.
Both strains belong to the strain of H5N1 known as 2.3.4.4b, which has infected roughly 50 species of mammals and killed millions of wild birds and commercial poultry.
Science
Trump's first term brought world-changing vaccine. His second could bring retreat
President Trump once celebrated the COVID-19 vaccines released at the end of his first term as “one of the greatest achievements of mankind,” echoing the sentiments of mainstream medical officials who praised their rapid development as pivotal in combating the then-raging pandemic.
But as his second administration takes shape, some are sounding the alarm regarding Trump’s picks to lead major public health agencies, concerned that the nominees’ skepticism, if not hostility, toward vaccines could jeopardize the nation’s ability to respond to new or resurgent infectious threats.
There’s Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s pick to lead the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, who has called the COVID-19 vaccine the “deadliest vaccine ever made” and said that “there’s no vaccine that is, you know, safe and effective.”
Nominated to lead the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is Dr. Dave Weldon, a former congressman from Florida who has expressed skepticism of the safety of vaccines and promoted the discredited idea that a preservative, thimerosal, that has been used in some vaccines, or the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine — which has never used thimerosal — may be linked to autism.
Skepticism and outright conspiracy theories about vaccines are nothing new, and health officials have long warned about the potential pitfalls of such misinformation.
But now, some top doubters could be in the position to shape federal health policy.
While COVID is no longer the grave public health threat it once was, the disease spikes periodically — as it did this summer — and has continued to be responsible for the most hospitalizations and deaths of any respiratory disease nationally, with nearly 60,000 fatalities for the yearlong period that ended Sept. 30. And other infectious threats, be they whooping cough, measles or the latest strain of bird flu, continue to loom.
“We really don’t want to return to the era where these vaccine-preventable diseases were frequent, and children were getting sick or hospitalized or even dying,” said Dr. Anne Schuchat, a former deputy director at the CDC, who served at the agency for more than three decades, starting in the Reagan administration. “We’ve been fortunate in the past couple decades to have high levels of vaccination and low levels of most of the diseases.”
Neither the Trump transition team, a spokesperson for Kennedy, nor Weldon answered requests for comment for this story.
Trump, who had his own brush with the coronavirus near the end of his first term, hailed the rapid development of the COVID vaccines as a “monumental national achievement” and celebrated the production of “a verifiably safe and effective vaccine.”
He continued in 2021 to promote COVID vaccines in interviews and at rallies, though he also said he didn’t support making the shots mandatory. That year alone, the World Health Organization estimates, the vaccines likely saved at least 14.4 million lives worldwide.
But even then, skepticism surrounding the shots was starting to take root — including among Trump’s supporters. A KFF survey found that 60% of Republicans who support his “Make America Great Again” agenda got at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine at some point. But by late 2023, another KFF survey found that 70% of self-identified MAGA Republicans were either not too confident or not at all confident in the safety of the COVID-19 vaccine.
That same survey found that only 36% of Republicans were very or somewhat confident the COVID-19 vaccines are safe, compared with 54% of independents and 84% of Democrats.
Kennedy has contended he is not “anti-vaccine,” but his organization, the Children’s Health Defense, has questioned their safety. Kennedy himself has criticized what he sees as deficits in the science on vaccine safety and spread the myth that vaccines commonly injure children.
When asked by a documentary maker whether there were any vaccines in history that were a benefit to mankind, Kennedy replied: “I don’t know the answer to that.”
More recently, he has said he would not “take away anybody’s vaccines.”
But even if a vaccine isn’t taken away entirely, “you can just make it much harder for people to get,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health and a former White House COVID-19 Response coordinator under President Biden.
For instance, Jha said, newly appointed officials could demand randomized clinical trials for every annual update to the COVID vaccine — “even though we don’t do that for the flu vaccines.”
“If that is a new standard that they create, it probably will make it impossible for [updated] COVID vaccines to be available in time for the holiday season,” Jha said. “If they follow through on their own previous critiques, they may box themselves in and make it very, very hard for Americans to even get COVID vaccines.”
Kennedy has also advanced the baseless claim that thimerosal in vaccines can cause autism, which has been thoroughly discredited by scientists. Thimerosal has been removed from childhood vaccines since 2001, according to the CDC, and “research does not show any link between thimerosal and autism.” While it is still used in some flu vaccines, parents can request a formulation without the preservative for their children.
Organizations like the American Academy of Pediatrics also say the MMR vaccine — which protects against measles, mumps and rubella and is a major target of the anti-vax movement — is safe.
Critics have also accused Kennedy of spreading misinformation regarding the safety of the measles vaccine in Samoa. The Associated Press reported that Kennedy traveled to the island nation in June 2019 and met with anti-vaccine activists before a severe outbreak that killed 83, mostly infants and children.
At the time, public health officials said anti-vaccine misinformation had made the nation vulnerable. Kennedy has denied playing a role in the outbreak, which he has characterized as “mild.” “I had nothing to do with people not vaccinating in Samoa. I never told anybody not to vaccinate,” Kennedy told an interviewer in the 2023 documentary “Shot in the Arm.”
In a video published by the New York Post in 2023, Kennedy floated the conspiracy theory that COVID-19 may have been engineered to avoid harming Jews and Chinese people. Critics called his comments antisemitic and anti-Asian.
In a social media post, Kennedy said “the insinuation” that “I am somehow antisemitic, is a disgusting fabrication.” In another post, Kennedy said he has “never, ever suggested that the COVID-19 virus was targeted to spare Jews” and asserted “that the U.S. and other governments are developing ethnically targeted bioweapons and that a 2021 study of the COVID-19 virus shows that COVID-19 appears to disproportionately affect certain races.”
Some scientists have dismissed some of Kennedy’s assertions as absurd and not based in science.
“One of my biggest concerns about about him is the misinformation that he spreads around vaccination,” said Dr. Richard Besser, who served as acting CDC director during the initial response to the 2009 H1N1 “swine flu” pandemic and is now president and chief executive of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.
The Health and Human Services secretary plays a major role in setting health priorities for the nation — suggesting how much money various agencies should get, helping determine what is covered for people on Medicare or Medicaid, and having a say in what kind of public recommendations the agency issues, Besser said.
Kennedy “consistently shows that he doesn’t believe in modern medicine, doesn’t believe in the scientific process that has led to these huge gains that we’ve had” in public health, Jha said.
Dr. Scott Gottlieb, whom Trump appointed as commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration during his first term, said on CNBC that if Kennedy follows through on his rhetoric, “You’re going to see measles, mumps and rubella vaccination rates go down,” which he expects would result in large outbreaks. “For every 1,000 cases of measles that occur in children, there will be one death,” he added.
Trump’s apparent skepticism toward some vaccine requirements — during the campaign he pledged to “not give one penny to any school that has a vaccine mandate” — is also raising alarm bells in some corners.
Making moves that would erode the share of schoolchildren receiving vaccines they have been getting for generations would “create health risks” for the community at large, said Dr. Mark Ghaly, former secretary of California’s Health and Human Services Agency.
If a policy scrapping federal funding at schools that enforce vaccination requirements for schoolchildren were enacted, some districts or states may have to make tough decisions. While most public schools largely rely on state and local funding, federal dollars flow to support certain programs, such as school lunches.
California is a little less reliant on federal funding for public health work, but “I can imagine that some states may be pushed into a corner,” Ghaly said.
State and local health officials should also speak up if they see messaging from the federal government that amounts to misinformation, Jha said. “It is, I think, really critical for state and local public health officials to speak up and not cede the floor to federal officials, especially if those federal officials are not sort of sticking to where the scientific evidence is,” Jha said.
Different leadership at national health agencies could also affect the availability or cost of vaccines.
“Could they become harder to get? Could it become more expensive to get in some places? Maybe not in the first year or two, but down the road, absolutely,” Ghaly said.
The federal government’s childhood vaccination program, run out of the CDC with oversight from Health and Human Services, plays a major role in getting half the kids in America their childhood vaccines essentially for free, Jha said. If federal officials decide to gut the program, “a lot of poor kids are not going to have easy access to vaccines, which, of course, would be tragic and would put everybody at risk.”
Other questions include whether future federal health officials would seek next fall to water down the CDC’s current recommendation that everyone age 6 months and up get vaccinated against COVID — and whether that would affect whether insurers cover the costs of vaccines.
One glimpse into a sharply different way of managing COVID vaccination recommendations is in Florida.
In a move at direct odds with the CDC and the Food and Drug Administration, Florida’s surgeon general, Dr. Joseph Ladapo, advised against getting mRNA COVID vaccinations this fall and suggested that healthcare providers look into a non-mRNA shot for the elderly and immunocompromised. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines both use mRNA technology, while a different vaccine from Novavax does not.
Ladapo, a former professor at UCLA, is viewed favorably by some highly ranked Republicans, including Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor who appointed him. Just after the election, DeSantis urged Trump to appoint Ladapo as the next secretary of Health and Human Services.
The CDC and FDA have rebuked earlier claims by Ladapo, saying his suggestion that there was an increased risk of harmful, life-threatening side effects caused by the COVID-19 vaccines was “incorrect, misleading and could be harmful to the American public.” The letter said the FDA-approved COVID vaccines have met rigorous standards for safety and effectiveness.
Jha said he thought some of Trump’s other administration picks were reasonable, including the nomination of Dr. Marty Makary, a surgical oncologist at Johns Hopkins University, to run the FDA.
Makary drew attention for a February 2021 op-ed in which he wrote he expected COVID-19 to be “mostly gone” by that April, a prediction that failed to materialize. Later that year, he criticized federal recommendations to have 16- and 17-year-olds receive a COVID-19 vaccine booster, citing a lack of supporting clinical data. In early 2022, he criticized experts who he said discounted infection-derived immunity to COVID.
Jha said he disagrees with Makary on a number of topics — such as, in his view, discounting the value of COVID vaccinations in kids. The difference between Kennedy and Makary, Jha said, is that Makary’s views “are within the range of medical professionals who believe in modern medicine, who can disagree honestly.”
Among Trump’s other picks Jha said he considered reasonable was Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, a Stanford University health policy professor and economist who was critical of pandemic lockdowns, and offered pandemic policy advice to Florida. Nominated to run the National Institutes of Health, Bhattacharya supported a pandemic response called “focused protection” — protecting those at highest risk of death while allowing others to “live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection.”
“I think some of his ideas and recommendations during the pandemic were really problematic and caused a lot of suffering,” Jha said of Bhattacharya, adding that no state was able to implement “focused protection” and that “lots of Floridians died.”
But, Jha added, “If the question is — is he qualified? This is a guy who has an MD, PhD at Stanford … he’s got a very broad body of work, mostly in health economics … He’s very smart, very experienced.”
Science
L.A.'s mountain lions become more nocturnal to avoid people. Does it come at a cost?
Griffith Park’s late celebrity mountain lion P-22 took the night shift to avoid hordes of hikers, bikers and dawdlers who frequented his home in the heart of Los Angeles — and it’s a pattern replicated by other pumas in the region, according to a new study.
The move to a later schedule is an encouraging example of a species doing its part to coexist in a bustling megalopolis, according to researchers from UC Davis and other institutions who conducted the study.
But the temporal gymnastics they perform may come at a cost, experts said, consuming energy and limiting the amount of time they can spend on critical tasks such as hunting. And it may compound other urban stressors, like whizzing traffic and rat poison.
The study, published last month in the journal Biological Conservation, found that Southland mountain lions became more nocturnal and less crepuscular — i.e., active at dusk or dawn — in popular recreation areas.
To examine the impact of recreation on the lions, researchers used GPS and activity data gleaned from the tracking collars of 22 mountain lions roaming the Santa Monica Mountains and surrounding region between 2011 and 2018.
They also drew data from Strava, a popular app in which users publicly document runs, hikes and more to determine how much recreation was happening in each lion’s home range, and to test how it influenced the patterns and timing of their activity.
The “most nocturnal” puma in the study was the late P-41, who inhabited the Verdugo Mountains, a range bounded by freeways and development on the northeast edge of the San Fernando Valley, and a recreation haven. Ranked second was P-22, affectionately called the Brad Pitt of mountain lions when he stalked the Hollywood Hills.
Researchers wondered if mountain lions who were exposed to more recreation would become immune to it — and simply not care.
“We saw the opposite,” said Ellie Bolas, lead author and a PhD candidate at UC Davis.
“Seeing that mountain lions are flexible in their activity and sensitive to recreation is, I think, a reason we can feel optimistic that they’re willing to avoid us and want to avoid us,” she added.
Other institutions involved included Cal Poly Pomona, the National Park Service, UCLA, the University of Nebraska and Harvard Westlake High School.
The findings are good news for Angelenos worried about becoming a lion’s lunch — given that the cats are steering clear of people. And it helps explain how the apex predators manage to hack it in an intensely urban environment. Los Angeles is just one of two megacities in the world that are home to a big cat; the other is Mumbai, in India, where leopards prowl the streets.
So why are local lions rearranging their schedules for people? The new study notes that animals might high-tail it to areas where there are less people when they can. But in the greater L.A. metropolitan area, with more than 18 million people, even natural areas get gridlocked. So they adopted another strategy.
The National Park Service has monitored lions in and around the Santa Monica Mountains for more than 20 years, which is where the long-term data for the recent research came from.
“A major thing that we’ve been studying all along is the effects of urbanization and fragmentation on these animals,” said Seth Riley, study co-author and branch chief for wildlife at Santa Monica Mountains National Recreation Area, a unit of the park service.
The new study revealed that the lions’ timing shifts weren’t more pronounced on weekends when recreation spikes, contrary to what researchers expected.
There were also differences between the sexes, with female mountain lions found to be more active during the day and closer to sunrise. Researchers surmised that they avoid overlapping with male lions who will kill kittens in tow — and sometimes even the females themselves.
The least nocturnal puma tracked was P-13, a female with a home range in the central and western Santa Monicas.
Beth Pratt, California regional executive director for the National Wildlife Federation, said that while it’s good news that the charismatic cats are “coping,” there are likely tradeoffs.
“By switching their hunting strategy, it’s not ideal,” said Pratt, who was one of P-22’s biggest boosters. “It takes more energy, it doesn’t give them as many options, but the animals here are doing their part.”
People should pitch in, too, by minimizing challenges, she said. Panthers stalking the Santa Monica Mountains are imperiled by inbreeding because of freeways that essentially lock them in — and visitors with needed genetic diversity out.
“At a certain point they’re not going to be able to cope with all these challenges stacked up,” she said, pointing to threats such as cars and rodenticides — both of which took a toll on P-22. He was captured and euthanized in late 2022, deemed too sick to return to the wild because of injuries and infection.
One way to give lions “the edge” is by putting up wildlife crossings, said Pratt, who is a major force behind the largest such passageway in the world rising over the 101 Freeway in Agoura Hills.
The more than $90-million Wallis Annenberg Wildlife Crossing currently under construction is seen as a potential lifeline for the lions of the Santa Monicas. Without an outlet, the population is at risk of blinking out.
Pratt said the new study shows that actions as seemingly innocuous as how we site trails and enjoy the outdoors can impact the species — and that it would behoove us to consider our approach as we navigate a biodiversity crisis.
“It’s not that we shouldn’t do them, but how can we do them differently so that animals aren’t as impacted,” she said.
Bolas said there’s currently no research to tell us if the lions’ flexibility in the timing of their activity is also a cost to them, but that “it very well may be.”
Revelations from the study arrive as some Southern California and Central Coast cougars are at a crossroads.
California wildlife officials are poised to decide whether to designate six isolated clans of pumas as endangered or threatened species under state law.
The state Fish and Game Commission in 2020 granted the cougars who are roaming regions between Santa Cruz and the U.S.-Mexico border temporary endangered status as a candidate to be listed under the state Endangered Species Act.
A final decision is expected next year.
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