Science
After U.S. and Israeli Strikes, Could Iran Make a Nuclear Bomb?
Sustain nuclear expertise
Likely harmed
Before strikes
Over the decades, Iran built up scientific and engineering expertise in nuclear technology.
After
Israel says it killed at least 14 of Iran’s leading nuclear experts in the recent attacks. But there is another tier of scientists in Iran who share much of that knowledge. If past experience from previous assassinations of nuclear talent holds, over time, they will likely be able to carry on the work.
Sustain nuclear expertise
Likely harmed
Before strikes
Over the decades, Iran built up scientific and engineering expertise in nuclear technology.
After
Israel says it killed at least 14 of Iran’s leading nuclear experts in the recent attacks. But there is another tier of scientists in Iran who share much of that knowledge. If past experience from previous assassinations of nuclear talent holds, over time, they will likely be able to carry on the work.
Mine uranium ore
Appears unaffected
Before strikes
Iran has two active uranium mines, both in central Iran. Iran has not reported how much it has mined in recent years, but the material, it says, is contained in one of the mines, Narigan, would be enough for more than 50 weapons.
After
Iran’s uranium mines have not been targeted by strikes during the fighting.
Mine uranium ore
Appears unaffected
Before strikes
Iran has two active uranium mines, both in central Iran. Iran has not reported how much it has mined in recent years, but the material, it says, is contained in one of the mines, Narigan, would be enough for more than 50 weapons.
After
Iran’s uranium mines have not been targeted by strikes during the fighting.
Convert uranium to gas
Possibly destroyed
Before strikes
The only known facility in Iran that could convert natural uranium into gas, in the form of uranium hexafluoride, was in Isfahan.
After
American missiles severely damaged Iran’s main uranium conversion site, most likely destroying Iran’s ability to convert natural uranium into the form required to start the enrichment process. Rebuilding could take years.
Convert uranium to gas
Possibly destroyed
Before strikes
The only known facility in Iran that could convert natural uranium into gas, in the form of uranium hexafluoride, was in Isfahan.
After
American missiles severely damaged Iran’s main uranium conversion site, most likely destroying Iran’s ability to convert natural uranium into the form required to start the enrichment process. Rebuilding could take years.
Enrich uranium
Damaged but extent unclear
Before strikes
This is the hardest part of making a nuclear bomb. Producing bomb-grade uranium requires vast arrays of high-speed centrifuges to spin the uranium gas and concentrate the enriched form. Iran’s Natanz and Fordo sites held more than 18,000 centrifuges, mostly underground.
After
Israel most likely destroyed all the centrifuges at Natanz. And the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said the centrifuges at Fordo, Iran’s other major enrichment site built deep inside a mountain, appeared “no longer operational” after the U.S. attack. Trump said the facility was “obliterated,” though other assessments were more cautious. Israel also destroyed plants that manufactured centrifuges.
Iran has claimed it has other, secret enrichment facilities. But there is no evidence that other operational enrichment sites exist. Iran has also been assembling advanced, next-generation centrifuges at dispersed locations and, unless diplomacy or military action intervenes, may install them at two underground facilities it has been building.
Enrich uranium
Damaged but extent unclear
Before strikes
This is the hardest part of making a nuclear bomb. Producing bomb-grade uranium requires vast arrays of high-speed centrifuges to spin the uranium gas and concentrate the enriched form. Iran’s Natanz and Fordo sites held more than 18,000 centrifuges, mostly underground.
After
Israel most likely destroyed all the centrifuges at Natanz. And the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said the centrifuges at Fordo, Iran’s other major enrichment site built deep inside a mountain, appeared “no longer operational” after the U.S. attack. Trump said the facility was “obliterated,” though other assessments were more cautious. Israel also destroyed plants that manufactured centrifuges.
Iran has claimed it has other, secret enrichment facilities. But there is no evidence that other operational enrichment sites exist. Iran has also been assembling advanced, next-generation centrifuges at dispersed locations and, unless diplomacy or military action intervenes, may install them at two underground facilities it has been building.
Store the enriched uranium
Probably still exists
Before strikes
International inspectors estimated this year that Iran had just shy of 900 pounds of nearly bomb-grade uranium. Inspectors last saw some of the stockpile about a week before Israel began its strikes. At that time, it was stored deep inside a nuclear complex near Isfahan in special casks small enough to fit in the trunks of about 10 cars.
Once further enriched, this stockpile would be enough to make nine or 10 atomic weapons, but U.S. intelligence agencies assessed that Iran had not decided whether to make a bomb.
After
A classified U.S. report said that much of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was moved before the strikes. The White House has insisted that it was destroyed but cited no evidence. The I.A.E.A. and European intelligence agencies believe Iran likely dispersed its stockpiles of enriched uranium around the country.
The uranium of greatest concern has already been enriched to a purity of 60 percent, greatly shortening the time required to bring it to 90 percent, which is usually considered weapons-grade fuel. But to do so would require some hidden, working centrifuges.
Store the enriched uranium
Probably still exists
Before strikes
International inspectors estimated this year that Iran had just shy of 900 pounds of nearly bomb-grade uranium. Inspectors last saw some of the stockpile about a week before Israel began its strikes. At that time, it was stored deep inside a nuclear complex near Isfahan in special casks small enough to fit in the trunks of about 10 cars.
Once further enriched, this stockpile would be enough to make nine or 10 atomic weapons, but U.S. intelligence agencies assessed that Iran had not decided whether to make a bomb.
After
A classified U.S. report said that much of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was moved before the strikes. The White House has insisted that it was destroyed but cited no evidence. The I.A.E.A. and European intelligence agencies believe Iran likely dispersed its stockpiles of enriched uranium around the country.
The uranium of greatest concern has already been enriched to a purity of 60 percent, greatly shortening the time required to bring it to 90 percent, which is usually considered weapons-grade fuel. But to do so would require some hidden, working centrifuges.
Convert enriched uranium to metal
Possibly destroyed
Before strikes
Iran had one known facility to convert enriched uranium back into its solid metal state — a critical step before it can be used in a weapon.
After
Israel destroyed Iran’s uranium metal production facility at Isfahan. Without this important capability, Iran cannot make an atomic bomb. However, one expert cautioned that Iran has produced uranium metal at other locations before, and it may have a secret site to conduct the work elsewhere.
Convert enriched uranium to metal
Possibly destroyed
Before strikes
Iran had one known facility to convert enriched uranium back into its solid metal state — a critical step before it can be used in a weapon.
After
Israel destroyed Iran’s uranium metal production facility at Isfahan. Without this important capability, Iran cannot make an atomic bomb. However, one expert cautioned that Iran has produced uranium metal at other locations before, and it may have a secret site to conduct the work elsewhere.
Make a bomb
Likely damaged
Before strikes
To build a modern atomic weapon with the metal, Iran would need to miniaturize crucial components, such as the detonator system, to fit into a missile-capable warhead. It is unclear whether Iran has this capability, but experts believe it has made some progress, and it is thought to have experimented with triggering devices. American intelligence agencies concluded last year that Iran was working on a “faster, cruder” approach to a weapon.
After
Israel destroyed several buildings at the Sanjarian manufacturing facility that were associated with the development of detonation systems and explosives, but Iran may have other similar facilities.
Make a bomb
Likely damaged
Before strikes
To build a modern atomic weapon with the metal, Iran would need to miniaturize crucial components, such as the detonator system, to fit into a missile-capable warhead. It is unclear whether Iran has this capability, but experts believe it has made some progress, and it is thought to have experimented with triggering devices. American intelligence agencies concluded last year that Iran was working on a “faster, cruder” approach to a weapon.
After
Israel destroyed several buildings at the Sanjarian manufacturing facility that were associated with the development of detonation systems and explosives, but Iran may have other similar facilities.
Deliver a weapon
Still possible
Before strikes
With a weapon, Iran could conduct a nuclear test, as North Korea first did in 2006. There are many ways to deliver a weapon, but if it wants to strike a target from afar, it needs planes or missiles to deliver it. Until recently it had thousands of missiles, many of which could carry an atomic weapon.
After
Israel claims to have destroyed hundreds of Iran’s missile launchers, but is unlikely to have completely wiped out Iran’s ability to fire a nuclear-capable missile.
Deliver a weapon
Still possible
Before strikes
With a weapon, Iran could conduct a nuclear test, as North Korea first did in 2006. There are many ways to deliver a weapon, but if it wants to strike a target from afar, it needs planes or missiles to deliver it. Until recently it had thousands of missiles, many of which could carry an atomic weapon.
After
Israel claims to have destroyed hundreds of Iran’s missile launchers, but is unlikely to have completely wiped out Iran’s ability to fire a nuclear-capable missile.
Science
Trump Administration Orders Rapid End to Hunting Regulations on Federal Lands
The Trump administration has directed national recreation areas, seashores, wildlife refuges and other public lands to immediately lift dozens of restrictions on hunting and trapping, internal Interior Department documents show.
The order, which takes effect on Monday, applies to some 76 federal lands that allow hunting but have rules to protect habitats or people. Curecanti National Recreation Area in Colorado had prohibited firing weapons from, toward or across trails. At Lake Meredith National Recreation Area in Texas, hunters had been barred from cleaning and processing game animals in restrooms. And at the Ozark National Scenic Riverways in Missouri, hunting dogs were required to have tags for safety.
Those and many other requirements are now deleted.
Interior Secretary Doug Burgum ordered the changes, according to an April 21 memo to park officials and a spreadsheet of changes at individual parks, both of which were reviewed by The New York Times.
“Closures and restrictions not required by law must be the minimum necessary for public safety or resource protection,” the memo said.
Major national parks like Yellowstone, the Everglades and the Grand Canyon are permanently closed to hunting by statute and will not be affected by the order.
Critics said the changes were made without studies or wide consultation about how they might affect public lands. They warned of unintended consequences for animals and habitats. The Interior Department said in a statement that each change had been carefully reviewed and that any restrictions necessary for public safety or legal compliance would not be lifted.
Mr. Burgum has shown an eagerness to expand hunting and fishing on federal lands. Last year, the Interior Department allowed hunting across 87,000 new acres at national wildlife refuges and hatcheries. And in January, Mr. Burgum issued a secretarial order directing the National Park Service, the Fish and Wildlife Service, the Bureau of Land Management and the Bureau of Reclamation to review “outdated” restrictions that may pose an “unnecessary regulatory burden.”
Aubrie Spady, a spokeswoman for the Interior Department, said in a statement that Mr. Burgum’s order was a common-sense approach to managing public lands and said the agency was expanding access to hunting and fishing where it can be done safely and responsibly.
“For decades, sportsmen and women have been some of the strongest stewards of our public lands, and this order ensures their access is not unnecessarily restricted by outdated or overly broad limitations that are not required by law,” Ms. Spady said. She added that the agency does not comment on leaked or unofficial documents, but said internal deliberative materials did not reflect how the decisions were made.
According to the spreadsheet of changes that the Trump administration has requested at specific locations, park officials have pushed back in some places.
For example, Cape Cod National Seashore in Massachusetts said it could not allow hunting or carrying loaded weapons near trails and certain buildings because about 4 million people visit the park each year. And at New River Gorge National River in West Virginia, officials said they were not planning to change prohibitions on discharging firearms within 500 feet of visitors centers and campgrounds, calling it “a basic safety measure.”
But parks have already made dozens of other changes. Several have agreed to repeal restrictions on the use of artificial lights when hunting and allow permanent hunting stands. Conservation groups have argued that lights may affect wildlife and that stands can harm vegetation.
Other changes include an end to restrictions on transporting wildlife as well as rules restricting where animal carcasses can be left.
And in some cases, compendiums — the written compilation of closures, permit requirements and other restrictions at parks — have already been altered. For example, as of May 1, the Jean Lafitte National Historical Park and Preserve in Louisiana eliminated a section that declared that all reptile species, including turtles and alligators, are protected in the park.
Compendiums have typically been designed at the discretionary authority of park superintendents.
“Those things were put into place by park superintendents over a period of time for very good reasons,” said Daniel Wenk, the former National Park Service superintendent of Yellowstone National Park, said of the changes, adding, “this is very concerning.”
Advocates for park protection who were shown the memo said they supported hunting in parks where Congress has authorized the activity. But some accused the Trump administration of acting irresponsibly and imposing a one-size-fits-all deregulatory agenda on parks with specific needs. Many said the administration was rushing through changes that could put hikers and campers in danger or harm vulnerable wildlife.
Several said the move appeared to violate the 1916 Organic Act, which created the National Park Service. It allows hunting where federally mandated but also directs the agency to conserve park resources so they are “unimpaired” for the enjoyment of future generations.
“What we’re really concerned about is, that memo didn’t say, ‘do analysis,’” said Stephanie Adams, who leads the wildlife program at the National Parks Conservation Association, a nonprofit group.
“It didn’t say ‘engage the public,’ and it didn’t say to be sure to focus on that key part of the Organic Act, which is to manage in a way that leaves the parks unimpaired for the enjoyment of future generation,” Ms. Adams said.
Hunting and outdoor sporting groups have praised the Trump administration’s efforts so far.
Aaron Kindle, the director of sporting advocacy at the National Wildlife Federation, a conservation nonprofit that supports hunting, said wildlife refuges often have different regulations than the states, creating confusion for hunters.
Rob Sexton, the senior vice president of the Sportsmen Alliance, a hunting advocacy group, said national park sites have had a “closed until open” attitude toward hunting that needs to be reversed. He said restrictions that are not grounded in state law or “compelling scientific evidence” showing harm to wildlife and habitat should be eliminated to help encourage more hunting and fishing.
Both Mr. Kindle and Mr. Sexton declined to comment on specific rules because they had not seen the documents.
“The number one reason why people give up hunting and fishing is the lack of opportunity and access,” Mr. Sexton said.
Federal land managed by the Bureau of Indian Affairs inside reservations also is expected to be unaffected by the order.
Science
They boarded a luxury Antarctic cruise. Then hantavirus took a deadly toll
Hantavirus is suspected of spreading aboard a luxury cruise ship, killing three passengers and sparking new concerns as a once obscure disease, with an extraordinarily high death rate, rises amid changing climate conditions.
Officials are still trying to determine what happened aboard the ship, which commands fares of up to $28,845 for a 46-day journey that includes a tour of the Antarctica Peninsula and stops in Tierra del Fuego on the southern edge of Argentina.
In addition to the three deaths, a fourth passenger was evacuated to a South African hospital and was in intensive care, and two crew members fell ill. The Dutch-flagged ship remained off the coast of Cape Verde, an island nation about 400 miles west of Senegal, where it was scheduled to have docked Monday.
Hantavirus is fairly rare in the Americas, but its high case fatality rate makes it a disease of major public health concern, the World Health Organization says. Hantavirus is more common in Asia and Europe, where the strains that circulate are less deadly, with a case fatality rate that ranges from less than 1% to 15%.
Hantavirus is most commonly spread by inhaling particles contaminated with the virus — such as dried mouse urine, saliva or droppings.
But there is one strain of hantavirus — known as the Andes virus — that can be transmitted from human to human, and has been transmitted in Thailand and Argentina.
It’s unclear what strain of hantavirus hit the ship.
The first death on the ship occurred April 11 somewhere in the Atlantic Ocean, and the man’s cause of death couldn’t be determined on board, the ship operator said. The body was transported off the ship April 24 as the vessel docked on Saint Helena Island, about 1,100 miles off Africa, and the man’s wife accompanied his remains.
The wife became unwell on the trip home and later died. The cruise ship operator was notified of the woman’s death April 27. The couple were Dutch nationals. On the same day, another passenger, a British national, became seriously ill on the ship and was medically evacuated to South Africa. That patient was confirmed to have hantavirus.
A German passenger died aboard the ship Saturday. And on Monday, the ship operator said two crew members — one British, one Dutch — had acute respiratory symptoms, one mild and one severe but both requiring urgent medical care.
Among the possibilities that could explain the suspected outbreak, according to Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, a UC San Francisco infectious diseases expert, are rodents getting on board the ship and exposing people to the virus, or person-to-person transmission.
“Could a cruise member have been cleaning up an area and incidentally aerosolized some rodent droppings?” said Dr. Elizabeth Hudson, regional chief of infectious diseases at Kaiser Permanente Southern California. “Was there a shore excursion that the passengers and crew attended where they were exposed to aerosolized rodent droppings?”
Because hantavirus is so rare, it’s hard to say what effect these deaths might have on the cruise industry. COVID-19 hit the industry hard, but that was a global pandemic with a virus spreading rapidly with human-to-human contact. A key question for investigators is how the virus spread.
The MV Hondius is operated by Oceanwide Expeditions, which has a fleet of four ships and bills itself as a cruise ship eco-tour operator with trips to the Arctic and Antarctica. The MV Hondius can hold 170 passengers in 80 cabins.
As of Monday, there were 148 people on board, including 17 U.S. passengers. One deceased passenger remained on board.
The MV Hondius sailed March 20 from Ushuaia, the capital of Tierra del Fuego on the southern edge of Argentina, on a round trip to the Antarctica Peninsula, returning to port 11 days later. On April 1, the ship left Argentina and headed back to Cape Verde, with stops on the Atlantic Ocean islands of South Georgia, Tristan de Cunha and St. Helena.
The strains of hantavirus in the Americas are attracted to the small blood vessels of the lungs and make the blood vessels leaky — which is bad, because the lungs need air, Chin-Hong said.
“So people can’t breathe,” he said. “It’s like you’re drowning. The lungs are leaky, so the fluid fills up in the lungs.”
There are 50 species of hantavirus. The virus that’s found in the Americas tends to cause a cardiopulmonary syndrome, a condition that affects both the heart and the lungs, said Dr. Gaby Frank, director of Johns Hopkins Special Pathogens Center.
Hantavirus is associated with a case fatality rate of up to 50% in the Americas. It was the cause of death of Gene Hackman’s 65-year-old wife, Betsy Arakawa, in their Santa Fe, N.M., home. Arakawa died days before Hackman, 95, died as a result of heart disease. There were signs of rodent entry in some structures on the couple’s property. Last year, three people in Mammoth Lakes died after contracting hantavirus. There was evidence of mice where all three of the deceased had worked, and one person had numerous mice in their home, according to the public health office for Mono County, home to Mammoth Lakes.
There is no vaccine or specific antiviral medicine for hantavirus. In the Americas, doctors can help infected people by putting them on a life-support machine known as ECMO, for extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, which breathes for the patient by oxygenating the blood. “It’s very, very intensive, and that’s why the fatality rate is so high,” Chin-Hong said.
Some experts expect hantavirus to be more of a concern in the future in some parts of the world due to climate change as rising temperatures are favorable to animals and insects that carry diseases, such as the increase in Lyme disease as the climate becomes more hospitable to the ticks that transmit it.
With rainfall patterns changing as global temperatures warm, “then you would expect that the rodent population will increase with time,” Chin-Hong said. Examples include people being sickened with, and dying from, rat-borne diseases such as leptospirosis after Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico in 2017.
In the U.S., there’s an average of 30 hantavirus cases reported a year, a figure that has remained relatively steady. But “there has been more media attention to it,” Hudson said.
Times staff writer Karen Garcia contributed to this report.
Science
Shipwreck Reveals Fate of Vanished World War I Coast Guard Cutter
The sea was stormy on Sept. 26, 1918, as a convoy of merchant ships navigated the Bristol Channel in southern England. Escorting them was the Tampa, a 190-foot U.S. Coast Guard cutter with the mission of protecting the boats from German submarines.
The cutter separated from the convoy in the misty night to take on supplies and coal at a port. And then it disappeared. For more than a century, its fate has been an enduring naval mystery of World War I.
This week, British divers announced that the wreck of the Tampa had at last been found, nestled 320 feet deep in murky waters about 50 miles off the Cornish coast.
A torpedo from a German submarine killed all those aboard the cutter: 111 Coast Guardsmen, four U.S. Navy personnel and 15 British Navy personnel and civilians.
Adm. Kevin Lunday, commandant of the Coast Guard, said that the Tampa was the largest single American naval combat loss of life in World War I and that it had left “an enduring grief in our service.”
The discovery was the culmination of a three-year effort by the Gasperados Dive Team, a group of British explorers and researchers. They combed shipping logs and wartime messages, and collaborated with the Coast Guard to pinpoint the path and resting place of the vanished vessel.
Barbara Mortimer, a Gasperados researcher, collated scraps of information, sometimes single lines of text that by themselves offered little to go on. But once all the information was meticulously pieced together, she and her teammates narrowed the search to an area clustered with thousands of wrecks from warships, commercial ships and fishing vessels lost over centuries.
The timeline of the Tampa’s final moments slowly emerged.
“Urgent. Priority,” said a telegram dated Sept. 27, 1918, sent to the admiralty in London. “USS Tampa detached herself from convoy.”
The telegram provided the longitude and latitude of that last sighting. At 7 p.m., the ship was seen on the horizon, steering toward the port of Milford Haven, it said. At 8:45 p.m., a wireless operator “felt the shock of an underwater explosion,” the telegram said.
Then, in the hours that followed, Milford Haven reported that the Tampa was 12 hours overdue for its scheduled arrival.
The research team assembled a number of clues about where the Tampa ended up.
One telegram said a seaplane had spotted a “considerable wreckage” field of seven to eight square miles. Two bodies, in Tampa uniforms, eventually washed ashore and were buried in Wales, Ms. Mortimer said in an interview. She said the researchers also studied German U-boat records.
The Coast Guard provided historical records, technical data and archival images of the ship’s features so divers knew what to look for in the deep.
In April 2023, the team made its first two dives looking for the Tampa. Seven more followed, and an assortment of shipwrecks were spotted and examined.
On Sunday they zeroed in on an area where a British hydrographic survey had noted a “significant magnetic anomaly” suggesting the possible location of a steel wreck.
That information was checked against convoy records, Ms. Mortimer said. The team decided, “It’s worth a look,” she said. But she added, “I did not have high expectations.”
Dominic Robinson, one of the team’s divers, lowered himself into the cold, dark waters of the Celtic Sea in the late afternoon of April 26.
At about 311 feet down, he spotted wreckage, piled high. As he drifted slowly over the debris field, his light picked up objects from the chaotic jumble. Some stood out: There was a brass fire extinguisher, an anchor, shell casings and a high-pressure steam boiler that was used in the engines of ships like the Tampa.
Surveying the mound, Mr. Robinson said in an interview that he had a “gut feeling” that the ship had been blown apart, making the bow crumble and absorb the impact. “And the rest of the ship settled down behind it,” he said.
Then he drifted over some crockery. Another member of the team, Jacob MacKenzie, found a similar piece that was inscribed with the maker’s mark: “New Jersey.”
They had an “American connection,” Mr. Robinson said.
“That instantly connects me with the people on the ship,” he said in a video of the dive. “They would have eaten out of those bowls. All these people would have had parents, would have had nearest and dearest, and none of them knew where they are.”
The Coast Guard is gathering data from the Gasperados’ finds to confirm it as an officially designated war grave, said William H. Thiesen, the Coast Guard’s Atlantic area historian.
The Coast Guard has been contacting the families of each lost Tampa crew member over many years, awarding them a posthumous Purple Heart medal, Mr. Thiesen said.
“It provides closure to a chapter that has been open for 100 years,” he said.
Jeremy Davids, 48, of Florida said that a relative, Wesley James Nobles, died while serving aboard the Tampa at the age of 20.
“Drowned foreign waters sinking of Tampa 9-26-1918,” the official record of Mr. Nobles’ death says. Mr. Nobles had a rating of “boy,” an enlisted rank for younger crew members.
“It feels good knowing the fact that not only him but the other soldiers who lost their lives that day can finally rest in peace,” Mr. Davids said in an interview.
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