Science
The Trump Administration Wants Seafloor Mining. What Does That Mean?
Life at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean is slow, dark and quiet. Strange creatures glitter and glow. Oxygen seeps mysteriously from lumpy, metallic rocks. There is little to disturb these deep-ocean denizens.
“There’s weird life down here,” said Bethany Orcutt, a geomicrobiologist at Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences.
Research in the deep sea is incredibly difficult given the extreme conditions, and rare given the price tag.
On Thursday, President Trump signed an executive order that aims to permit, for the first time, industrial mining of the seabed for minerals. Scientists have expressed deep reservations that mining could irreversibly harm these deep-sea ecosystems before their value and workings are fully understood.
What’s down there, anyway?
Seafloor mining could target three kinds of metal-rich deposits: nodules, crusts and mounds. But right now, it’s all about the nodules. Nodules are of particular value because they contain metals used in the making of electronics, sophisticated weaponry, electric-vehicle batteries and other technologies needed for human development. Nodules are also the easiest seafloor mineral deposit to collect.
Economically viable nodules take millions of years to form, sitting on the seafloor the whole time. A nodule is born when a resilient bit of matter, such as a shark tooth, winds up on the ocean floor. Minerals with iron, manganese and other metals slowly accumulate like a snowball. The largest are the size of a grapefruit.
Life accumulates on the nodules, too. Microbial organisms, invertebrates, corals and sponges all live on the nodules, and sea stars, crustaceans, worms and other life-forms scuttle around them.
About half of the known life in flat, vast expanses of seafloor called the abyssal plain live on these nodules, said Lisa Levin, an oceanographer at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. But “we don’t know how widespread species are, or whether if you mine one area, there would be individuals that could recolonize another place,” she said. “That’s a big unknown.”
How do you mine the sea?
Two main approaches to nodule mining are being developed. One is basically a claw, scraping along the seabed and collecting nodules as it goes. Another is essentially an industrial vacuum for the sea.
In both, the nodules would be brought up to ships on the surface, miles above the ocean floor. Leftover water, rock and other debris would be dropped back into the ocean.
Both dredging and vacuuming would greatly disturb, if not destroy, the seafloor habitat itself. Removing the nodules also means removing what scientists think is the main habitat for organisms on the abyssal plain.
Mining activities would also introduce light and noise pollution not only to the seafloor, but also to the ocean surface where the ship would be.
Of central concern are the plumes of sediment that mining would create, both at the seafloor and at depths around 1,000 meters, which have “some of the clearest ocean waters,” said Jeffrey Drazen, an oceanographer at the University of Hawaii at Manoa. Sediment plumes, which could travel vast distances, could throw life off in unpredictable ways.
Sediment could choke fish and smother filter-feeders like shrimp and sponges. It could block what little light gets transmitted in the ocean, preventing lanternfish from finding mates and anglerfish from luring prey. And laden with discarded metals, there’s also a chance it could pollute the seafood that people eat.
“How likely is it that we would contaminate our food supply?” Dr. Drazen said. Before mining begins, “I really would like an answer to that question. And we don’t have one now.”
What do mining companies say?
Mining companies say that they are developing sustainable, environmentally friendly deep-sea mining approaches through research and engagement with the scientific community.
Their research has included basic studies of seafloor geology, biology and chemistry, documenting thousands of species and providing valuable deep-sea photos and video. Interest in seafloor mining has supported research that might have been challenging to fund otherwise, Dr. Drazen said.
Preliminary tests of recovery equipment have provided some insights into foreseeable effects of their practices like sediment plumes, although modeling can only go so far in predicting what would happen once mining reached a commercial scale.
Impossible Metals, a seafloor mining company based in California, is developing an underwater robot the size of a shipping container that uses artificial intelligence to hand pick nodules without larger organisms, an approach it claims minimizes sediment plumes and biological disturbance. The Metals Company, a Canadian deep-sea mining company, in 2022 successfully recovered roughly 3,000 tons of nodules from the seafloor, collecting data on the plume and other effects in the process.
The Metals Company in March announced that it would seek a permit for seafloor mining through NOAA, circumventing the International Seabed Authority, the United Nations-affiliated organization set up to regulate seafloor mining.
Gerard Barron, the company’s chief executive, said in an interview on Thursday that the executive order was “not a shortcut” past environmental reviews and that the company had “completed more than a decade of environmental research.”
Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman, said the United States would abide by two American laws that govern deep-sea exploration and commercial activities in U.S. waters and beyond. “Both of these laws require comprehensive environmental impact assessments and compliance with strong environmental protection standards,” she said.
What are the long-term risks?
Many scientists remain skeptical that enough is known about seafloor mining’s environmental effects to move forward. They can only hypothesize about the long-term consequences.
Disrupting the bottom of the food chain could have ripple effects throughout the ocean environment. An extreme example, Dr. Drazen said, would be if sediment diluted the food supply of plankton. In that case they could starve, unable to scavenge enough organic matter from a cloud of sea dust.
Tiny plankton are a fundamental food source, directly or indirectly, for almost every creature in the ocean, up to and including whales.
Part of the challenge in understanding potential effects is that the pace of life is slow on the seafloor. Deep-sea fish can live hundreds of years. Corals can live thousands.
“It’s a different time scale of life,” Dr. Levin said. “That underpins some of the unknowns about responses to disturbances.” It’s hard for humans to do 500-year-long experiments to understand if or when ecosystems like these can bounce back or adapt.
And there are no guarantees of restoring destroyed habitats or mitigating damage on the seafloor. Unlike mining on land, “we don’t have those strategies for the deep sea,” Dr. Orcutt said. “There’s not currently scientific evidence that we can restore the ecosystem after we’ve damaged it.”
Some scientists question the need for seafloor mining at all, saying that mines on land could meet growing demand for metals.
Proponents of deep-sea mining have claimed that its environmental or carbon footprint would be smaller than traditional mining for those same minerals.
“There has been no actual recovery of minerals to date,” said Amy Gartman, an ocean researcher who leads the United States Geological Survey seabed minerals team, referring to commercial-scale mining. “We’re comparing theoretical versus actual, land-based mining practices. If and when someone actually breaks ground on one of these projects, we’ll get a better idea.”
Eric Lipton contributed reporting.
Science
CDC replaces website on vaccines and autism with false and misleading statements
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has altered its website on autism and vaccines, removing unequivocal statements that immunizations don’t cause the neurodevelopmental disorder and replacing them with inaccurate and misleading information about the links between the shots and autism.
Until Wednesday, the CDC page, “Autism and Vaccines,” began: “Studies have shown that there is no link between receiving vaccines and developing autism spectrum disorder (ASD).”
This was followed, in large font, by the blunt statement: “Vaccines do not cause autism.”
The rest of the page summarized some of the CDC’s own studies into autism and vaccine ingredients, none of which found any causal links between the two.
On Wednesday, the page was altered so that it now begins: “The claim ‘vaccines do not cause autism’ is not an evidence-based claim because studies have not ruled out the possibility that infant vaccines cause autism.”
The words “Vaccines do not cause autism” still appear near the top, but with an asterisk that leads to a note at the bottom.
“The header ‘Vaccines do not cause autism’ has not been removed due to an agreement with the chair of the U.S. Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee that it would remain on the CDC website,” the site states.
The chair of that committee, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), cast the deciding vote to advance Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s appointment as Health and Human Services secretary, in exchange for Kennedy’s promise that he wouldn’t erode public confidence in vaccines.
“What parents need to hear right now is vaccines for measles, polio, hepatitis B and other childhood diseases are safe and effective and will not cause autism. Any statement to the contrary is wrong, irresponsible, and actively makes Americans sicker,” Cassidy said in a post on X on Thursday afternoon. “Families are getting sick and people are dying from vaccine-preventable deaths, and that tragedy needs to stop.” Cassidy’s office did not immediately respond to further requests for comment Thursday.
“Studies supporting a link have been ignored by health authorities,” HHS spokesman Andrew Dixon said in an email. “We are updating the CDC’s website to reflect gold standard, evidence-based science.”
The news was met with outrage and alarm by scientists and advocates.
“Can we trust what’s coming from CDC anymore? I don’t know the answer to that question,” said Dr. Sean O’Leary, chair of the infectious disease committee at the American Academy of Pediatrics, adding that the website change reflects a “tragic moment” for U.S. public health.
“We are appalled to find that the content on the CDC webpage ‘Autism and Vaccines’ has been changed and distorted, and is now filled with anti-vaccine rhetoric and outright lies about vaccines and autism,” the nonprofit Autism Science Foundation said in a statement. “The CDC’s previous science- and evidence-based website has been replaced with misinformation and now actually contradicts the best available science.”
Alison Singer, the organization’s co-founder and president, expressed further frustration.
“Just like we no longer study whether the Earth is flat, at some point with regard to autism and vaccines, you have to call it and say ‘enough is enough,’” Singer said. “We don’t have an unlimited amount of money with which to study autism, and if we keep asking the same questions, we will never find the true causes of autism.”
The current CDC page now says the rise in autism diagnoses correlates with an increase in the number of vaccines given to infants. Multiple researchers have argued that the rise in autism spectrum disorder diagnoses is better explained by an expanding diagnostic definition of the disorder, along with better monitoring and diagnosis for more children.
“This issue has been studied exhaustively, and it has been shown over and over again that vaccines do not cause autism,” said Colin Killick, executive director of the Autistic Self-Advocacy Network. “This administration continues to lie about autism in ways that endanger both our community and the broader population.”
Science
California regulators approve rules to curb methane leaks and prevent fires at landfills
In one of the most important state environmental decisions this year, California air regulators adopted new rules designed to reduce methane leaks and better respond to disastrous underground fires at landfills statewide.
California Air Resources Board members voted 12-0 on Thursday to approve a batch of new regulations for the state’s nearly 200 large landfills, designed to minimize the release of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas produced by decomposing organic waste. Landfills are California’s second-largest source of methane emissions, following only the state’s large dairy cow and livestock herds.
The new requirements will force landfill operators to install additional pollution controls; more comprehensively investigate methane leaks on parts of landfills that are inaccessible with on-the-ground monitoring using new technology like drones and satellites; and fix equipment breakdowns much faster. Landfill operators also will be required to repair leaks identified through California’s new satellite-detection program.
The regulation is expected to prevent the release of 17,000 metric tons of methane annually — an amount capable of warming the atmosphere as much as 110,000 gas-fired cars driven for a year.
It also will curtail other harmful landfill pollution, such as lung-aggravating sulfur and cancer-causing benzene. Landfill operators will be required to keep better track of high temperatures and take steps to minimize the fire risks that heat could create.
There are underground fires burning in at least two landfills in Southern California — smoldering chemical reactions that are incinerating buried garbage, releasing toxic fumes and spewing liquid waste. Regulators found explosive levels of methane emanating from many other landfills across the state.
During the three-hour Air Resources Board hearing preceding the vote, several Californians who live near Chiquita Canyon Landfill — one of the known sites where garbage is burning deep underground — implored the board to act to prevent disasters in other communities across the state.
“If these rules were already updated, maybe my family wouldn’t be sick,” said Steven Howse, a 27-year resident of Val Verde. “My house wouldn’t be for sale. My close friend and neighbor would still live next door to me. And I wouldn’t be pleading with you right now. You have the power to change this.”
Landfill operators, including companies and local governments, voiced their concern about the costs and labor needed to comply with the regulation.
“We want to make sure that the rule is implementable for our communities, not unnecessarily burdensome,” said John Kennedy, a senior policy advocate for Rural County Representatives of California, a nonprofit organization representing 40 of the state’s 58 counties, many of which own and operate landfills. “While we support the overarching goals of the rule, we remain deeply concerned about specific measures including in the regulation.”
Lauren Sanchez, who was appointed chair of the California Air Resources Board in October, recently attended the United Nations’ COP30 climate conference in Brazil with Gov. Gavin Newsom. What she learned at the summit, she said, made clear to her that California’s methane emissions have international consequences, and that the state has an imperative to reduce them.
“The science is clear, acting now to reduce emissions of methane and other short-lived climate pollutants is the best way to immediately slow the pace of climate change,” Sanchez said.
Science
See How Home Insurance Premiums Are Changing Near You
Insurance premiums are rising fast in the parts of the United States most exposed to climate-related disasters like wildfires and hurricanes.
New research shows that, as insurance has sharply pushed up the cost of owning a home, the price shock is starting to reverberate through the broader real estate market.
Rising insurance costs are eating into household budgets.
In some areas of the country that are exposed to disasters, homes are not selling because prospective buyers can’t afford both the mortgage and the insurance.
In parts of the hail-prone Midwestern states, insurance now eats up more than one-fifth of the average homeowner’s total housing payments, including mortgage costs and property taxes. In Orleans Parish, La., that number is nearly 30 percent.
Home insurance costs have soared where climate hazards are highest.
Nationally, insurance rates have risen by an average of 58 percent since 2018, outpacing inflation by a substantial margin. But that growth has been highly uneven across the United States.
Places that are most vulnerable to climate-related disasters like hurricanes, fires and hail are seeing some of the largest premium increases. It’s not always the case that the highest climate risk translates into the highest insurance costs. Local policies and regulations have helped keep prices lower in high-risk places, like parts of California. Other factors, like a homeowner’s credit score, can affect premiums, too.
What’s driving up insurance prices?
Since 2017, an obscure part of the insurance market, known as reinsurance, has helped push up premiums. Insurance companies buy reinsurance to help limit their exposure when a catastrophe hits. Over the past several years, reinsurance companies have experienced what Benjamin Keys and Philip Mulder, the researchers who led the new study, call a “climate epiphany.” As a result, the rates they charge to protect home insurance companies against catastrophic losses have roughly doubled.
Insurance providers have, in turn, passed these costs on to homeowners. The rapid repricing of climate risk is responsible for about 20 percent of home insurance premium increases since 2017, according to Dr. Keys and Dr. Mulder.
What else is contributing to high rates? Rebuilding costs are responsible for about 35 percent of the recent changes, the research found. Population shifts and inflation are factors, too.
High insurance prices are weighing down home values.
Since 2018, a financial shock in the home insurance market has meant that homes in the ZIP codes most exposed to hurricanes and wildfires sell for an average of $43,900 less than they otherwise would have, the research found.
In many places, insurance has been a relatively small part of the homebuying equation. Now, for many, it’s a major consideration.
For several homeowners we interviewed in Louisiana, monthly insurance costs are now higher than their home loan payments.
The research shows buyers may be factoring rising insurance costs into the prices they’re willing to pay for homes. As a result, homes in some areas are selling for less.
Methodology
Benjamin Keys and Philip Mulder calculated annual homeowners’ insurance costs by separating mortgage and tax payments from loan-level escrow data obtained from CoreLogic, a property and risk analytics firm. Households whose payments were captured by CoreLogic were not necessarily present in all years of data from 2014 to 2024.
The home insurance share of total home payments is based on mean values. Total home payments include insurance, property tax and mortgage principal and interest costs. Escrow payments typically do not include utilities, homeowners’ association fees.
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