Science
Migrants Are Skipping Medical Care, Fearing ICE, Doctors Say
A man lay on a New York City sidewalk with a gun shot wound, clutching his side.
Emily Borghard, a social worker who hands out supplies to the homeless through her nonprofit, found him and pulled out her phone, preparing to dial 911. But the man begged her not to make the call, she said.
“No, no, no,” he said, telling her in Spanish that he would be deported.
Ms. Borghard tried to explain that federal law required hospitals to treat him, regardless of his immigration status, but he was terrified.
“He said, ‘If I go to the emergency department, that will put me on their radar,’” she recalled in an interview recounting the incident.
Across the country, doctors, nurses and social workers are increasingly concerned that people with serious medical conditions, including injuries, chronic illnesses and high-risk pregnancies, are forgoing medical care out of fear of being apprehended by immigration officials. Since the Trump administration announced plans for mass deportations and rescinded a Biden-era policy that protected spaces like hospitals, medical clinics and churches from immigration enforcement, doctors said they have seen sharp increases in patient anxiety and appointment no-show rates.
If the trend continues, health care officials say, the list of consequences could be long: Infectious diseases circulating unnecessarily; worsening health care costs because of untreated chronic illnesses; and dangerous birth complications for women who wait too long to seek help, among others.
In a survey conducted by KFF, a health policy research organization, 31 percent of immigrants said that worries about immigration status — their own or that of a family member — was negatively affecting their health. About 20 percent of all immigrants surveyed said they were struggling with their eating and sleeping; 31 percent reported worsened stress and anxiety.
A White House spokesman did not respond to messages seeking comment. When the administration announced that it was ending protections at hospitals on Jan. 21, a statement from the Department of Homeland Security said the new policy was intended “to enforce our immigration laws and catch criminal aliens.”
Research has shown that immigration crackdowns are linked with poorer birth outcomes and mental health status, lapses in care, and fewer people accessing the types of public programs that reduce illness and poverty overall.
“We’re really creating not just very serious health risks, but economic risks in the long run for our country,” said Julie Linton, a pediatrician and member of the committee on federal government affairs for the American Academy of Pediatrics. “These policies are creating very real fear and uncertainty for people and have a tremendous impact on their ability to function on a day-to-day level.”
Chronic Conditions
Many immigrant communities suffer from high rates of chronic conditions such as high blood pressure and diabetes, which, if left untreated, can lead to heart attack, stroke and other grave complications.
That is why doctors worry about patients like Maria, a 47-year-old woman with pre-diabetes, who has been going to the same primary care clinic ever since she arrived in the United States from El Salvador 20 years ago. Even during the first Trump administration’s crackdown on immigration, she continued to seek medical care. But when the protections around hospitals and clinics were rescinded earlier this year, Maria canceled her appointment to have her blood sugar checked, a routine and crucial element of diabetes prevention in patients like her.
“We’re very scared of being in the clinic and having ICE arrive while waiting to be called,” she said in Spanish, referring to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
Maria, who asked that her last name not be published, said that she is in a state of “constant anguish.” She said she avoids leaving the house and is working on a plan for the care of her children, who are American citizens, in case she and her husband are deported.
One of their daughters, who is 15, is being treated for fatty liver disease and the other, 11, needs therapy for a developmental condition. Their older daughter has another doctor’s appointment in June. Maria and her husband don’t want to interrupt her care, but they are worried about taking her there themselves. “It’s very complicated,” Maria said. “I can put myself at risk for my children. But if it’s for my own health, I prefer to let it go.”
The consequences of abandoning regular medical care can turn serious quickly, however. Jim Mangia, president of St. John’s Community Health Network in Los Angeles described one patient with diabetes who stopped showing up for a weekly diabetes education class. When a clinic staff member called the woman, they discovered she was afraid to even go to the grocery store, and had been subsisting for days on tortillas and coffee, he said.
“Thank God we reached her and she came in,” said Mr. Mangia, whose network serves an estimated 25,000 undocumented patients across more than 20 locations. Tests at the clinic showed that her blood sugar had become dangerously high.
“That’s what we’re going to see more and more of,” Mr. Mangia said. “It kind of breaks my heart to talk about it.”
Acute Care
For doctors working in urgent care settings, a drop-off in immigrants has become apparent through some unusual metrics. For example, Dr. Amy Zeidan, an emergency room physician in Atlanta, said that requests for Spanish-language interpretation in her hospital’s emergency department had fallen more than 60 percent from January to February.
Theresa Cheng, an emergency room physician at Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital and Trauma Center, said one of her residents had seen an immigrant patient who had suffered multiple facial fractures from an assault, but had not sought care for more than two weeks. “There is tremendous fear,” Dr. Cheng said.
In late January, Dr. Cheng said, she saw a patient who arrived with severely untreated diabetes. The patient, an undocumented woman, said she had waited to receive help because she was scared. She died that day.
Dr. Carolina Miranda, a family physician in the Bronx, spoke of a patient who had been granted asylum but, fearful of ICE, had failed to show up for a doctor’s appointment about a possible brain tumor.
Similar delays or cancellations are arising among pregnant women and new mothers, according to obstetrician-gynecologists around the country. Dr. Caitlin Bernard, an obstetrician in Indiana, said a patient had skipped her postpartum visit, explaining that she would no longer be leaving her house. On an obstetrics floor in a San Diego hospital, multiple staff members said they had seen an overnight drop-off following the inauguration in the number of immigrant women coming in with acute issues during their pregnancies.
“Obviously those women still exist,” said one doctor, who asked not to be identified because her employer forbade her from speaking publicly on the matter. “I fear it’s going to increase maternal mortality over time. ”
Children’s Health
Many of the children of immigrant parents who have skipped appointments or left medications unfilled are American citizens. But in mixed-status families, parents who are at risk of deportation are often unwilling to take the risk of going to the clinic or pharmacy.
A pediatrician at a health center that cares for underserved populations on the central coast of California reported a 30 percent increase in no-shows for pediatric appointments. Many of those who do bring their children, and are referred elsewhere for specialty care, such as speech therapy, or an autism evaluation, refuse, saying they are too frightened, said the pediatrician, who asked to be unidentified because he wasn’t authorized to speak publicly.
Dr. Tania Caballero, a pediatrician at Johns Hopkins who sees patients at a health center for underserved groups called Baltimore Medical System, said she had encountered parents who had not wanted to go with their babies to the emergency room out of fear, and parents of children with chronic conditions like cerebral palsy, asthma, and Type 1 diabetes who had told her they have stopped getting vital care.
“I tell patients, ‘I can’t control what happens outside of my space, and I can’t control if somebody comes into my space, But you know me. I have the tools, and I want to help you navigate this journey and do it together,’” she said.
Some parents of children in other dire situations — such as those receiving cancer treatment — are hoping that their child’s condition might actually protect them. Some have asked pediatricians for letters explaining their child’s medical requirements, in hopes that immigration officials who detain them might be convinced that the child needs to stay in the United States to survive.
Dr. Lisa Gwynn, a pediatrician in South Florida who serves families from across the Caribbean and South America, said that her plummeting patient attendance rate is particularly worrisome because patients are missing out on childhood vaccines necessary for preventing diseases like measles, pneumonia and whooping cough.
Dr. Gwynn also worries that without coming to see her, children who have experienced severe trauma before coming to the United States aren’t being connected to social workers or psychologists who can help.
“Imagine your children living in a home where everyone’s scared, and they’ve come to this country to not feel scared anymore,” she said. “We know that stress does not fare well for health. Period. Kids don’t perform as well in school, they have mental health issues, depression, anxiety. ”
A Dilemma for Hospitals
Some medical facilities have said they will comply with immigration officials. NYU Langone, in New York City, sent a memo to employees warning them not to try to protect illegal migrants. But many other health centers and organizations are finding ways to take a stand, telling staff to display “Know Your Rights” information on the walls and to never record their immigration status in a patient’s medical records. ”
Last week, the New England Journal of Medicine published an article by two doctors and a lawyer detailing how physicians can continue to provide health care and lawfully push back in the face of some ICE requests.
The St. John’s clinic network in Los Angeles recently launched an ambitious home visitation program in which a doctor, nurse and medical assistant visit patients’ where they live to perform exams and deliver medications. They aim to inform all 25,000 of their undocumented patients of this option.
In the New York area, a hospital association suggested designating a “hospital liaison” who can be paged to quickly usher an agent into a private office, and then ask to see a signed warrant, which would then be reviewed by in-house counsel.
At the emergency room of University Hospital, a safety net facility in Newark, staff members hand out cards, in Spanish and other languages, reminding patients of their rights. “You have the right to refuse consent for immigration or the police to search yourself, your car or your home,” the cards state.
But even there, the fear is palpable. Annalee M. Baker, an emergency physician, said she had seen a young woman who said her partner had beaten her until she was unconscious. Covered in welts and bruises, she had waited hours to come in. The reason given: she was terrified that her partner would be deported.
Dr. Baker also treated a minor who had been stabbed; she had needed his parents’ consent to treat him, but the boy had been skittish about providing any details about them, out of fear they might be caught in the immigration dragnet.
Still, it is the people who never come in at all that haunt Dr. Baker the most.
“The tragic message to these people is: Be a shadow and hope that you do not die.”
Sarah Kliffcontributed reporting.
Science
Contaminated meat from the grocery store may be causing your UTIs
There’s been a long-standing belief that urinary tract infections are largely caused by poor personal hygiene. New research, however, suggests that many cases may actually be caused by infections of E. coli bacteria from contaminated meat purchased in grocery stores.
UTIs are common — globally there are 400 million cases a year — and can occur when bacteria enter the urethra and infect the urinary tract, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Though public health agencies including the CDC have made clear that E. coli can cause UTIs, the information they provide is often vague. Usually, when E. coli comes up on agency websites, it’s in the context of the strains that cause diarrhea.
A new study published on Thursday in the science journal American Society for Microbiology puts the spotlight on the strains of E. coli that cause UTIs.
Between 2017 and 2021, researchers from George Washington University and Kaiser Permanente Southern California collected more than 5,700 urine samples that tested positive for E. coli from U.S. patients with UTIs who resided in Southern California, from Bakersfield to San Diego.
The researchers also took samples from meats (including turkey, chicken, pork and beef) being sold at retail locations in the neighborhoods where those patients lived.
By comparing the those two sets of samples, the researchers determined that approximately one in five of those infections could be tied to exposure to E. coli from contaminated meat that was purchased in the U.S.
“Urinary tract infections have long been considered a personal health issue, but our findings suggest that they are also a food safety problem,” said Lance Price, senior author of the study and professor of environmental and occupational health at George Washington University.
Among the meat samples, E. coli contamination was highest in chicken (found in 38% of samples collected) and turkey (36%), followed by beef (14%) and pork (12%).
According to the study, food-borne UTIs disproportionately affect women, as well as people living in lower-income areas.
Women are much more prone to the infection in general because of their anatomy. Women have a shorter urethra — the tube that carries urine from the bladder to outside the body — and the short distance makes it easier for bacteria to travel up the urethra and into the bladder. It’s unclear, however, why food-borne UTIs would affect women more than men.
It’s also uncertain why there is such a strong correlation between food-borne UTIs and people who live in high poverty areas. However, the study did find that E. coli contamination was more common in “value packs” of meat; i.e. products that contain larger quantities of meat sold at a lower price per pound.
“My own experience of actually going to grocery stores in more affluent communities versus low-income neighborhoods is that the quality of the products are lower” in the latter, Price said.
The study also suggested that factors including storage at improper temperatures, lack of proper safety and hygiene practices during handling, and production in unsanitary conditions could all have contributed to E. coli contamination.
Price said he and his team sometimes saw packages of chicken that were “bloated with saline.” The extra water could have been the culprit of the E. coli contamination if it leaked onto check-out conveyor belts and contaminated other grocery items.
While Price believes that our food supply chain could do more to lower the risk of food-borne UTIs, consumers can practice safe handling of foods to lower their risk of exposure. That includes:
- Purchasing meat and poultry that is securely sealed to prevent leakage onto other groceries.
- Thoroughly cooking all meat and poultry products. A complete list of recommended temperatures for whole cuts of beef, ground meats and poultry can be found on the CDC website.
- Avoiding cross-contamination in the kitchen.
- Washing hands and kitchen surfaces after preparing raw meat.
Science
How China Raced Ahead of the U.S. on Nuclear Power
China is quickly becoming the global leader in nuclear power, with nearly as many reactors under construction as the rest of the world combined. While its dominance of solar panels and electric vehicles is well known, China is also building nuclear plants at an extraordinary pace. By 2030, China’s nuclear capacity is set to surpass that of the United States, the first country to split atoms to make electricity.
Many of China’s reactors are derived from American and French designs, yet China has overcome the construction delays and cost overruns that have bogged down Western efforts to expand nuclear power.
At the same time, China is pushing the envelope, making breakthroughs in next-generation nuclear technologies that have eluded the West. The country is also investing heavily in fusion, a potentially limitless source of clean power if anyone can figure out how to tame it.
Beijing’s ultimate objective is to become a supplier of nuclear power to the world, joining the rare few nations — including the United States, Russia, France and South Korea — that can design and export some of the most sophisticated machines ever invented.
“The Chinese are moving very, very fast,” said Mark Hibbs, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace who has written a book on China’s nuclear program. “They are very keen to show the world that their program is unstoppable.”
As the United States and China compete for global supremacy, energy has become a geopolitical battleground. The United States, particularly under President Trump, has positioned itself as the leading supplier of fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal. China, by contrast, dominates the manufacturing of solar panels, wind turbines and batteries, seeing renewable power as the multi-trillion-dollar market of the future.
Nuclear power is enjoying a resurgence of global interest, especially as concerns about climate change mount. That’s because nuclear reactors don’t spew planet-warming emissions, unlike coal and gas plants, and can produce electricity around the clock, unlike wind and solar power.
The Trump administration wants to quadruple U.S. nuclear power capacity by 2050, even as it ignores global warming, and it hopes to develop a new generation of reactor technology to power data centers at home and sell to energy-hungry countries overseas. Officials fear that if China dominates the nuclear export market, it could expand its global influence, since building nuclear plants abroad creates deep, decades-long relationships between countries.
Yet in the race for atomic energy, China has one clear advantage: It has figured out how to produce reactors relatively quickly and cheaply. The country now assembles reactors in just five to six years, twice as fast as Western nations.
While U.S. nuclear construction costs skyrocketed after the 1960s, they fell by half in China during the 2000s and have since stabilized, according to data published recently in Nature. (The only two U.S. reactors built this century, at the Vogtle nuclear plant in Waynesboro, Ga., took 11 years and cost $35 billion.)
Construction costs of nuclear reactors
“When we first got this data and saw that declining trend in China, it surprised me,” said Shangwei Liu, a research fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government who led the paper.
The big questions, Mr. Liu said, are how China got so good at nuclear power — and whether the United States can catch up.
How China mastered nuclear power
A modern nuclear power plant is one of the most complex construction projects on Earth.
The reactor vessel, where atoms are split, is made of specialized steel up to 10 inches thick that must withstand bombardment by radiation for decades. That vessel, in turn, is housed in a massive containment dome, often three stories high and about as wide as the U.S. Capitol dome, made of steel-reinforced concrete to prevent dangerous leaks. Thousands of miles of piping and wiring must meet exacting safety standards.
Financing these multibillion-dollar projects is staggeringly difficult. Even minor problems, like needing regulator approval to modify a component midway through, can lead to long delays and can cause borrowing costs to skyrocket.
Over time, China has conquered this process.
It starts with heavy government support. Three state-owned nuclear developers receive cheap government-backed loans to build new reactors, which is valuable since financing can be one-third of costs. The Chinese government also requires electric grid operators to buy some of the power from nuclear plants at favorable rates.
Just as importantly, China’s nuclear companies build only a handful of reactor types and they do it over and over again.
That allows developers to perfect the construction process and is “essential for scaling efficiently,” said Joy Jiang, an energy innovation analyst at the Breakthrough Institute, a pro-nuclear research organization. “It means you can streamline licensing and simplify your supply chain.”
The fact that the Chinese government has a national mandate to expand nuclear power means that companies can confidently invest in domestic factories and a dedicated engineering work force. In a sprawling complex near Shanghai, giant reactor pressure vessels are being continuously forged, ready to be shipped to new projects without delay. Teams of specialized welders move seamlessly from one construction site to the next.
It’s been different in the West.
In the 1970s and 1980s, U.S. nuclear construction slowed to a trickle as interest rates rose and regulators frequently tightened safety rules, causing delays. Worries about the disposal of nuclear waste and fears after the 1979 partial meltdown of a reactor at Three Mile Island, in Pennsylvania, didn’t help. At the same time, private developers kept experimenting with new reactor designs that required different components and introduced fresh complications. U.S. nuclear power died from a lack of predictability.
The contrast became glaring in the late 2000s, when U.S. utilities tried to revive nuclear power with a new reactor model called the AP1000, with improved safety features. Developers struggled with the novel technology, leading to repeated delays and soaring costs. By the time the two reactors in Georgia were finished last year, most utilities were hesitant to try again.
As it happened, China built AP1000s at the same time. It, too, faced severe challenges, such as difficulties in obtaining coolant pumps and unpredictable cost spikes. But instead of giving up, Chinese officials studied what went wrong and concluded they needed to tweak the design and develop domestic supply chains.
“What the Chinese did was really smart,” said James Krellenstein, the chief executive of Alva Energy, a nuclear consultancy. “They said, we’re going to pause for a few years and incorporate every lesson learned.”
China is now building nine more copies of that reactor, known as the CAP1000, all on pace to be completed within five years at a drastically lower cost, an Energy Department report found.
At the Haiyang nuclear power plant, China keeps building
Nuclear proponents in the United States sometimes argue that overly strict safety regulations drive up costs.
China’s safety requirements are similar. But in China the approval process is more predictable, and opponents have fewer ways to challenge a project. Most reactors in China break ground weeks after receiving final approval from the safety regulator, according to research by Ms. Jiang. In the United States, by contrast, projects often need additional permits from state governments that can take months or years.
“China is practiced at building really big things, everything from dams to highways to high speed rail, and those project management skills are transferable,” said David Fishman, a power sector consultant at Lantau Group, a consulting firm.
As China, the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, seeks to curb pollution, it is counting on nuclear power to play an important role.
Solar and wind power are growing fast and account for most of China’s clean electricity, but the country also burns enormous amounts of coal to supply power when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing. More nuclear power could help backstop renewables and displace coal.
China’s nuclear expansion still faces hurdles. One of China’s plants suffered a smaller radioactive leak in 2021, and a bigger accident could trigger a public backlash. The country is still figuring out where to bury its nuclear waste, and some cities have seen impassioned protests over plans for waste reprocessing plants. Beijing has also blocked new reactors in much of China’s interior over concerns about their water use. If that moratorium persists, it could limit the industry’s growth.
For now, though, the country is barreling ahead, with plans to build hundreds of reactors by midcentury.
Can the U.S. catch up?
In the United States, nuclear power is one of the rare types of energy that has support from Republican and Democratic politicians alike, especially as demand for electricity rises. Even environmentalists like Al Gore who once fretted about catastrophic accidents and radioactive waste are warming to the technology.
Yet the U.S. is pursuing a starkly different path to nuclear expansion, one that leans more heavily on private innovation than government backing.
Dozens of start-ups are working on a new generation of smaller reactors meant to be cheaper than the hulking plants of old. Tech companies like Google, Amazon and OpenAI are pouring billions into nuclear start-ups like Kairos Power, X-Energy and Oklo to help power their data centers for artificial intelligence. Early projects are underway in Wyoming, Texas and Tennessee, though few, if any, new reactors are expected before the 2030s.
The Trump administration wants to accelerate this work by reducing regulations at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, which certifies the safety of reactors before they are built. The agency’s critics say it has become too hidebound to handle advanced reactors that are less prone to meltdowns.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that the administration is betting that the private capital flowing into nuclear projects will spark American ingenuity and catapult the U.S. ahead of China. “Entrepreneurial capitalist competition is where the U.S. thrives, and I think it’s an advantage over China,” he said in an interview.
Yet some worry that the United States is betting too heavily on technological breakthroughs instead of focusing on the financing, skills and infrastructure needed to build plants, as China has. The U.S., for instance, has lost almost all of its heavy forging capacity to make large reactor components. A new generation of advanced reactors could also take years to perfect, leaving America behind.
“You look at the number of designs, particularly in the U.S., you think, Oh, God, help us,” said Philip Andrews-Speed, a senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. “I would think narrowing down is the sensible thing to do.”
While the Trump administration has moved to speed up nuclear permitting and increase domestic supplies of nuclear fuel, some important government tools for advancing new reactors, such as the Energy Department’s loan office, have been hampered by staffing cuts. Efforts to slash safety regulations could be contentious. There is also a risk that interest by tech giants could fizzle if the A.I. boom slows.
“There’s no reason the United States couldn’t expand nuclear power,” said Stephen Ezell, vice president for global innovation policy at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. “But are we just going to see a few small reactors power a few data centers, or are we going to see a serious whole government approach to bring back nuclear power as an essential source of electricity?”
A race to power the world
China’s fast-paced nuclear program is a prelude to a larger goal: dominating the global market. Chinese companies have already built six reactors in Pakistan and plan to export many more.
At the same time, China is working to surpass the United States in technological innovation. China has built what it calls the world’s first “fourth generation” reactor, a gas-cooled model that can provide heat and steam for heavy industry in addition to electricity. The Chinese are also pursuing technologies that use less uranium, such as thorium reactors, or recycle spent nuclear fuel. It’s a recognition that China doesn’t have enough domestic uranium for a massive build-out of traditional reactors.
Even if U.S. companies and labs remain at the forefront of innovation, one recent report warned that China was 10 to 15 years ahead of the United States in its ability to deploy next-generation reactors widely.
It’s a familiar story: The United States invented solar panels and batteries, only to watch as China scaled those technologies and now controls global markets.
“Maybe we can convince some of our allies not to buy Chinese reactors, but there are going to be plenty of other countries out there with growing energy demands,” said Paul Saunders, president of the Center for National Interest, a conservative-leaning think tank. “And if America isn’t ready, we won’t be able to compete.”
Science
Californians bought a record number of EVs before Trump budget cuts
Californians purchased a record number of zero-emission and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the third quarter of 2025, seizing their final opportunity to claim federal tax incentives before they were eliminated under President Trump’s sweeping budget cuts.
California residents bought more than 124,700 zero-emission vehicles or plug-in hybrids from July 1 to Sept. 30, marking the highest quarterly sales of clean vehicles since the state began tracking those numbers in 2008, according to the California Energy Commission. Electric vehicles and long-range hybrids made up 29% of new car sales statewide, capturing the largest quarterly market share in that 17-year span.
Consumers rushed to dealerships to take advantage of expiring, Biden-era tax credits, which offered up to $7,500 toward buying or leasing new zero-emission or hybrid vehicles. The incentives were vital in making EVs more affordable, given their batteries had primarily been made with expensive rare earth minerals, adding to sticker prices compared to gas-powered vehicles.
Now, for the first time in more than a decade, EVs must compete with their gas-powered cars without government-funded discounts. Although EV model lineups have expanded and prices have become more competitive, they remain $5,000 to 10,000 more expensive than comparable gas models, raising concerns about whether California will maintain momentum on its clean car goals.
“Most of the major brands that our dealers represent have one or more EVs that are available today — and many more in the pipeline,” said Brian Maas, president of the California New Car Dealers Assn., which represents over 1,200 franchised new-car dealers statewide. “So EVs are here to stay. The question is, at what sales level?”
The top-five counties with the highest share of EV sales were all in the Bay Area. Santa Clara, where nearly 47% of vehicle sales were zero-emission or hybrids, led the way. EV sales were also high in Orange and Los Angeles counties, accounting for nearly 36% and 31% of total car sales in the quarter, respectively.
Tesla remained California’s top-selling EV car brand by far.
But its third-quarter sales this year fell by nearly 7% compared to the same period in 2024. The big winners seem to have been Honda and Volkswagen, whose zero-emission sales in California more than doubled year-over-year; Audi wasn’t too far behind, with sales increasing 90%.
Ford also did well, posting record national sales of its electrified Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning — more than 15% of which were sold in California.
Maas said he anticipated “gangbuster” third-quarter sales with the impending demise federal tax credit, which allowed for a markdown of over 10% on most EV models. But many of these were “pulling-forward” sales — purchases by consumers who would have bought later, if not for the expiration of the federal incentives.
Many American car companies, including Ford and General Motors, have reported they are forecasting future declines in EV sales, citing federal policy changes.
Maas is among a chorus of industry experts who tend to agree.
“I think any economist expects there to be a dropoff,” he said. “It’s unclear how far that dropoff is going to be. Dealers have been trying to figure out what’s the natural level of EV sales without credits, and they’re trying to align their inventory to reflect that.”
Jessie Dosanjh, president of California Automotive Retailing Group, operates 20 dealerships in Northern California that sell numerous brands, including Chevrolet, Nissan, Acura, Toyota, Infinity, Ford and Hyundai. In August and September, Dosanjh said, dealership floors were more crowded than usual with customers seeking EVs. He advised his employees to inform customers, if they ever considered buying an EV or hybrid, they had a limited window to get the best price.
“It is absolutely a significant amount of money, especially when you look at the leases,” Dosanjh said. “It’s a couple hundred dollars [a month], on average.”
Even with the record quarterly sales, this year’s overall sales still slightly lag behind 2024.
A flurry of tariff announcements, mixed economic forecasts and political backlash against Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk contributed to slumping EV sales in the first half of the year, according to experts.
Environmental deregulation and disinvestment by the Trump administration has rocked market expectations for EV sales.
In addition to ending the federal tax credits, the Trump administration and federal lawmakers chose to not reauthorize a law that gave EV drivers nationally the privilege of driving alone in carpool lane, a popular perk to avoid congested highways. Trump also signed a law revoking federal waivers that allowed California to require automakers to sell increasing percentage of zero-emission vehicles to dealerships statewide, starting with 35% all new vehicles sales in 2026.
The regulatory changes has left dealers rethinking the makeup of the vehicles on their lots.
“If I were a betting person, I would say that EV demand will drop off several percentage points,” Dosanjh said. “To what extent, I don’t know. I don’t think that those consumers will necessarily not buy a car. I think they’ll see a shift to more hybrid vehicles that provide some of the benefits, as far as range and savings. And I also see consumers considering perhaps cheaper internal combustion engine vehicles.”
Gov. Gavin Newsom had previously vowed to restore a state program that provided up to $7,500 to buy clean cars, if Trump terminated federal tax credits. However, while taking questions from reporters at a Sept. 19 bill signing ceremony, Newsom walked back that commitment.
“We can’t make up for federal vandalism of those tax credits,” Newsom said. “But we can continue to make the unprecedented investments in infrastructure, which we’re doing.”
The governor’s press office did not respond to a request for comment on his change in stance.
California Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta is suing the federal government to reinstate California’s zero-emission vehicle regulations. Meanwhile, state regulators are soliciting ideas for new ways to encourage EV adoption.
The good news is that the state’s innovative policy and environmentally minded residents have already made a lasting mark on the industry, said Adrian Martinez, director of the Right to Zero campaign at Earthjustice, a San Francisco-based environmental nonprofit.
California’s clean air policy is already largely responsible for pushing automakers to incorporate nearly 150 EV models into their lineups, a far cry from the 20 designs on the market in 2012. The state is nearing 2.5 million zero-emission and long-range hybrid vehicles sold since 2008, a testament to the demand for cleaner cars, Martinez said.
“There’s a lot of kind of gloom and doom out there, mainly because we’re seeing efforts at the federal level to put anchors on our electric vehicle industry in this country,” Martinez said. “But there’s been a lot of money and effort and time spent to develop electric vehicle markets. And it’d be crazy for these companies to just bow down to these federal pressures and stop selling these cars which consumers want.”
Maas, the president of the California car dealership association, largely agreed. EVs have become a fixture in California. But car dealers will learn more about how self-sufficient they can be in the coming months.
“I think the long-term future is EVs will continue to sell well, especially in a state like California,” he said, “but perhaps not as well as some had originally hoped.”
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