Science
How Foreign Aid Cuts Are Setting the Stage for Disease Outbreaks

Dangerous pathogens left unsecured at labs across Africa. Halted inspections for mpox, Ebola and other infections at airports and other checkpoints. Millions of unscreened animals shipped across borders.
The Trump administration’s pause on foreign aid has hobbled programs that prevent and snuff out outbreaks around the world, scientists say, leaving people everywhere more vulnerable to dangerous pathogens.
That includes Americans. Outbreaks that begin overseas can travel quickly: The coronavirus may have first appeared in China, for example, but it soon appeared everywhere, including the United States. When polio or dengue appears in this country, cases are usually linked to international travel.
“It’s actually in the interest of American people to keep diseases down,” said Dr. Githinji Gitahi, who heads Amref Health Africa, a large nonprofit that relies on the United States for about 25 percent of its funding.
“Diseases make their way to the U.S. even when we have our best people on it, and now we are not putting our best people on it,” he added.
In interviews, more than 30 current and former officials of the United States Agency for International Development, members of health organizations and experts in infectious diseases described a world made more perilous than it was just a few weeks ago.
Many spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation by the federal government.
The timing is dire: The Democratic Republic of Congo is experiencing the deadliest mpox outbreak in history, with cases exploding in a dozen other African countries.
The United States is home to a worsening bird flu crisis. Multiple hemorrhagic fever viruses are smoldering: Ebola in Uganda, Marburg in Tanzania, and Lassa in Nigeria and Sierra Leone.
In 2023, U.S.A.I.D. invested about $900 million to fund labs and emergency-response preparedness in more than 30 countries. The pause on foreign aid froze those programs. Even payments to grantees for work already completed are being sorted out in the courts.
Waivers issued by the State Department were intended to allow some work to continue on containing Ebola, Marburg and mpox, as well as preparedness for bird flu.
But Trump administration appointees choked payment systems and created obstacles to implementing the waivers, according to a U.S.A.I.D. memo by Nicholas Enrich, who was the agency’s acting assistant administrator for global health until Sunday.
Then last month, the Trump administration canceled about 5,800 contracts, effectively shuttering most U.S.A.I.D.-funded initiatives, including many that had received permission to continue.
“It was finally clear that we were not going to be implementing” even programs that had waivers, Mr. Enrich recalled in an interview.
The decision is likely to result in more than 28,000 new cases of infectious diseases like Ebola and Marburg, and 200,000 cases of paralytic polio each year, according to one estimate.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio “has been working diligently since being sworn in to review every dollar spent,” the State Department said in an emailed statement.
“We’ll be able to say that every program that we are out there operating serves the national interest, because it makes us safer or stronger or more prosperous,’” the statement quoted Mr. Rubio as saying.
Most U.S.A.I.D. staff members were terminated or placed on administrative leave without warning. The agency had more than 50 people dedicated to outbreak responses, the result of a Congressional push to beef up pandemic preparedness.
Now it has six. Those who were fired included the organization’s leading expert in lab diagnostics and the manager of the Ebola response. “I have no idea how six people are going to run four outbreak responses,” said one official who was let go.
Also sent home were hundreds of thousands of community health workers in Africa who were sentinels for diseases.
In early January, the Tanzanian government denied there were new cases of Marburg, a hemorrhagic fever. It was a community health worker trained through a U.S.-funded Ebola program who reported the disease a week later.
The outbreak eventually grew to include 10 cases; it is now under control, the government has said.
Even in quieter times, foreign aid helps to prevent, detect and treat diseases that can endanger Americans, including drug-resistant H.I.V., tuberculosis and malaria, and bacteria that don’t respond to available antibiotics.
Much of that work has stopped, and other organizations or countries cannot fill the gap. Compounding the loss is America’s withdrawal from the World Health Organization, which has instituted cost-cutting measures of its own.
“This is a lose-lose scenario,” said Dr. Keiji Fukuda, who has led pandemic prevention efforts at the W.H.O. and the C.D.C.
The slashing of foreign aid deprives the world of American leadership and expertise, but it also locks the United States out of global discussions, Dr. Fukuda said: “For the life of me, I cannot see the justification or the reason for this very calculated, systematic approach to pull down public health.”
Trying to Adapt
U.S.A.I.D.’s intense focus on global health security is barely a decade old, but it has mostly received bipartisan support. The first Trump administration expanded the program to 50 countries.
Much of the aid was intended to help them eventually tackle problems on their own. And to some extent, that was happening.
But confronted with a new virus or outbreak, “there’s so many things that one has to do and learn, and many countries can’t do that on their own,” said Dr. Lucille Blumberg, an infectious diseases physician and expert on emerging diseases.
U.S.A.I.D. and its partners helped countries identify the expertise, training and machinery they needed, brought together officials in various ministries and engaged farmers, businesses and families.
“It actually doesn’t cost the U.S. government that much,” said an official with a large development organization. “But that sort of trust-building, communication, sharing evidence is a real strength that the U.S. brings to health security — and that’s gone.”
In Africa, some countries have reacted to the disappearance of aid with alarm, others with resignation. “We’re doing our best to adapt to this development,” said Dr. Muhammad Ali Pate, Nigeria’s health minister.
“The U.S. government is not responsible, ultimately, for the health and the security of Nigerian people,” he said. “At the end of the day, the responsibility is ours.”
A successful outbreak response requires coordination of myriad elements: investigators to confirm the initial report; workers trained to do testing; access to test kits; transport of samples; a lab with enough workers, running water, electricity and chemical supplies for diagnoses; and experts to interpret and act on the results.
In broad strokes, the C.D.C. provided expertise on diseases, U.S.A.I.D. funded logistics and the W.H.O. convened stakeholders, including ministries of health.
Before the aid freeze, employees from each organization often talked every day, sharing information and debating strategy. Together, they lowered response time to an outbreak from two weeks in 2014 to five days in 2022 to just 48 hours most recently.
But now, C.D.C. experts who have honed their expertise over decades are not even allowed to speak to colleagues at the W.H.O.
U.S.A.I.D. funding for sample transport, lab supplies, fuel for generators and phone plans for contact tracers has ended. Much of its investment in simple solutions to seemingly intractable problems has also stopped.
In West Africa, for example, rodents that spread Lassa fever invade homes in search of food. One program in U.S.A.I.D.’s Stop Spillover project introduced rodent-proof food containers to limit the problem, but has now shut down.
In Congo, where corruption, conflict and endless outbreaks mean that surveillance “looks like Swiss cheese even at the best of times,” the mpox response slowed because there were no health workers to transport samples, said a U.S.A.I.D. official familiar with the response.
More than 400 mpox patients were left stranded after fleeing overwhelmed clinics. Before a waiver restarted some work, the United States identified two new cases of mpox, both in people who had traveled to East Africa.
In Kenya, U.S.A.I.D. supported eight labs and community-based surveillance in 12 high-risk counties. Labs in the Marsabit, Mandera and Garissa counties — which border Ethiopia and Somalia — have run out of test kits and reagents for diseases including Rift Valley fever, yellow fever and polio, and have lost nearly half their staff.
Kenya also borders Uganda and Tanzania and is close to Congo — all battling dangerous outbreaks — and has lost more than 35,000 workers.
“These stop-work orders would mean that it increases the risk of an index case passing through unnoticed,” Dr. Gitahi said, referring to the first known case in an outbreak. His organization has terminated nearly 400 of its staff of 2,400.
Many labs in Africa store samples of pathogens that naturally occur in the environment, including several that can be weaponized. With surveillance programs shut off, the pathogens could be stolen, and a bioterrorism attack might go undetected until it was too late to counter.
Some experts worried about bad actors who may release a threat like cholera into the water, or weaponize anthrax or brucellosis, common in African animals. Others said they were concerned that even unskilled handling of these disease threats might be enough to set off a disaster.
Funding from the U.S. government helped hire and train lab workers to maintain and dispose of dangerous viruses and bacteria safely.
But now, pathogens can be moved in and out of labs with no one the wiser. “We have lost our ability to understand where pathogens are being held,” said Kaitlin Sandhaus, founder and chief executive of Global Implementation Solutions.
Her company helped 17 African labs become accredited in biosafety procedures and supported five countries in drafting laws to ensure compliance. Now the firm is shutting down.
In the future, other countries, including China, will know more about where risky pathogens are housed, Ms. Sandhaus said: “It feels very dangerous to me.”
China has already invested in building labs in Africa, where it is cheaper and easier to “work on whatever you would like without anyone else paying attention,” said one U.S.A.I.D. official.
Russia, too, is providing mobile labs to Ugandans in Mbale, on the border with Kenya, another official said.
Some African countries like Somalia have fragile health systems and persistent security threats, yet minimal capacity for tracking infections that sicken animals and people, said Abdinasir Yusuf Osman, a veterinary epidemiologist and chair of a working group in Somalia’s health ministry.
Each year Somalia exports millions of camels, cattle and other livestock, primarily to the Middle East. The nation has relied heavily on foreign aid to screen the animals for diseases, he said.
“The consequences of this funding shortfall, in my view, will be catastrophic and increase the likelihood of uncontrolled outbreaks,” Dr. Osman said.
In countries with larger economies, foreign aid has helped build relationships. Thailand is a pioneer in infectious diseases, and U.S.A.I.D. was funding a modest project on malaria elimination that boosts its surveillance capabilities.
The abrupt end to that commitment risks losing good will, said Jui Shah, who helped run the program.
“In Asia, relationships are crucial for any type of work, but especially for roles that work with surveillance and patient data,” she said. “Americans will suffer if other countries hesitate to engage with us about outbreaks.”

Science
After U.S. and Israeli Strikes, Could Iran Make a Nuclear Bomb?

Sustain nuclear expertise
Likely harmed
Before strikes
Over the decades, Iran built up scientific and engineering expertise in nuclear technology.
After
Israel says it killed at least 14 of Iran’s leading nuclear experts in the recent attacks. But there is another tier of scientists in Iran who share much of that knowledge. If past experience from previous assassinations of nuclear talent holds, over time, they will likely be able to carry on the work.
Sustain nuclear expertise
Likely harmed
Before strikes
Over the decades, Iran built up scientific and engineering expertise in nuclear technology.
After
Israel says it killed at least 14 of Iran’s leading nuclear experts in the recent attacks. But there is another tier of scientists in Iran who share much of that knowledge. If past experience from previous assassinations of nuclear talent holds, over time, they will likely be able to carry on the work.
Mine uranium ore
Appears unaffected
Before strikes
Iran has two active uranium mines, both in central Iran. Iran has not reported how much it has mined in recent years, but the material, it says, is contained in one of the mines, Narigan, would be enough for more than 50 weapons.
After
Iran’s uranium mines have not been targeted by strikes during the fighting.
Mine uranium ore
Appears unaffected
Before strikes
Iran has two active uranium mines, both in central Iran. Iran has not reported how much it has mined in recent years, but the material, it says, is contained in one of the mines, Narigan, would be enough for more than 50 weapons.
After
Iran’s uranium mines have not been targeted by strikes during the fighting.
Convert uranium to gas
Possibly destroyed
Before strikes
The only known facility in Iran that could convert natural uranium into gas, in the form of uranium hexafluoride, was in Isfahan.
After
American missiles severely damaged Iran’s main uranium conversion site, most likely destroying Iran’s ability to convert natural uranium into the form required to start the enrichment process. Rebuilding could take years.
Convert uranium to gas
Possibly destroyed
Before strikes
The only known facility in Iran that could convert natural uranium into gas, in the form of uranium hexafluoride, was in Isfahan.
After
American missiles severely damaged Iran’s main uranium conversion site, most likely destroying Iran’s ability to convert natural uranium into the form required to start the enrichment process. Rebuilding could take years.
Enrich uranium
Damaged but extent unclear
Before strikes
This is the hardest part of making a nuclear bomb. Producing bomb-grade uranium requires vast arrays of high-speed centrifuges to spin the uranium gas and concentrate the enriched form. Iran’s Natanz and Fordo sites held more than 18,000 centrifuges, mostly underground.
After
Israel most likely destroyed all the centrifuges at Natanz. And the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said the centrifuges at Fordo, Iran’s other major enrichment site built deep inside a mountain, appeared “no longer operational” after the U.S. attack. Trump said the facility was “obliterated,” though other assessments were more cautious. Israel also destroyed plants that manufactured centrifuges.
Iran has claimed it has other, secret enrichment facilities. But there is no evidence that other operational enrichment sites exist. Iran has also been assembling advanced, next-generation centrifuges at dispersed locations and, unless diplomacy or military action intervenes, may install them at two underground facilities it has been building.
Enrich uranium
Damaged but extent unclear
Before strikes
This is the hardest part of making a nuclear bomb. Producing bomb-grade uranium requires vast arrays of high-speed centrifuges to spin the uranium gas and concentrate the enriched form. Iran’s Natanz and Fordo sites held more than 18,000 centrifuges, mostly underground.
After
Israel most likely destroyed all the centrifuges at Natanz. And the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said the centrifuges at Fordo, Iran’s other major enrichment site built deep inside a mountain, appeared “no longer operational” after the U.S. attack. Trump said the facility was “obliterated,” though other assessments were more cautious. Israel also destroyed plants that manufactured centrifuges.
Iran has claimed it has other, secret enrichment facilities. But there is no evidence that other operational enrichment sites exist. Iran has also been assembling advanced, next-generation centrifuges at dispersed locations and, unless diplomacy or military action intervenes, may install them at two underground facilities it has been building.
Store the enriched uranium
Probably still exists
Before strikes
International inspectors estimated this year that Iran had just shy of 900 pounds of nearly bomb-grade uranium. Inspectors last saw some of the stockpile about a week before Israel began its strikes. At that time, it was stored deep inside a nuclear complex near Isfahan in special casks small enough to fit in the trunks of about 10 cars.
Once further enriched, this stockpile would be enough to make nine or 10 atomic weapons, but U.S. intelligence agencies assessed that Iran had not decided whether to make a bomb.
After
A classified U.S. report said that much of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was moved before the strikes. The White House has insisted that it was destroyed but cited no evidence. The I.A.E.A. and European intelligence agencies believe Iran likely dispersed its stockpiles of enriched uranium around the country.
The uranium of greatest concern has already been enriched to a purity of 60 percent, greatly shortening the time required to bring it to 90 percent, which is usually considered weapons-grade fuel. But to do so would require some hidden, working centrifuges.
Store the enriched uranium
Probably still exists
Before strikes
International inspectors estimated this year that Iran had just shy of 900 pounds of nearly bomb-grade uranium. Inspectors last saw some of the stockpile about a week before Israel began its strikes. At that time, it was stored deep inside a nuclear complex near Isfahan in special casks small enough to fit in the trunks of about 10 cars.
Once further enriched, this stockpile would be enough to make nine or 10 atomic weapons, but U.S. intelligence agencies assessed that Iran had not decided whether to make a bomb.
After
A classified U.S. report said that much of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was moved before the strikes. The White House has insisted that it was destroyed but cited no evidence. The I.A.E.A. and European intelligence agencies believe Iran likely dispersed its stockpiles of enriched uranium around the country.
The uranium of greatest concern has already been enriched to a purity of 60 percent, greatly shortening the time required to bring it to 90 percent, which is usually considered weapons-grade fuel. But to do so would require some hidden, working centrifuges.
Convert enriched uranium to metal
Possibly destroyed
Before strikes
Iran had one known facility to convert enriched uranium back into its solid metal state — a critical step before it can be used in a weapon.
After
Israel destroyed Iran’s uranium metal production facility at Isfahan. Without this important capability, Iran cannot make an atomic bomb. However, one expert cautioned that Iran has produced uranium metal at other locations before, and it may have a secret site to conduct the work elsewhere.
Convert enriched uranium to metal
Possibly destroyed
Before strikes
Iran had one known facility to convert enriched uranium back into its solid metal state — a critical step before it can be used in a weapon.
After
Israel destroyed Iran’s uranium metal production facility at Isfahan. Without this important capability, Iran cannot make an atomic bomb. However, one expert cautioned that Iran has produced uranium metal at other locations before, and it may have a secret site to conduct the work elsewhere.
Make a bomb
Likely damaged
Before strikes
To build a modern atomic weapon with the metal, Iran would need to miniaturize crucial components, such as the detonator system, to fit into a missile-capable warhead. It is unclear whether Iran has this capability, but experts believe it has made some progress, and it is thought to have experimented with triggering devices. American intelligence agencies concluded last year that Iran was working on a “faster, cruder” approach to a weapon.
After
Israel destroyed several buildings at the Sanjarian manufacturing facility that were associated with the development of detonation systems and explosives, but Iran may have other similar facilities.
Make a bomb
Likely damaged
Before strikes
To build a modern atomic weapon with the metal, Iran would need to miniaturize crucial components, such as the detonator system, to fit into a missile-capable warhead. It is unclear whether Iran has this capability, but experts believe it has made some progress, and it is thought to have experimented with triggering devices. American intelligence agencies concluded last year that Iran was working on a “faster, cruder” approach to a weapon.
After
Israel destroyed several buildings at the Sanjarian manufacturing facility that were associated with the development of detonation systems and explosives, but Iran may have other similar facilities.
Deliver a weapon
Still possible
Before strikes
With a weapon, Iran could conduct a nuclear test, as North Korea first did in 2006. There are many ways to deliver a weapon, but if it wants to strike a target from afar, it needs planes or missiles to deliver it. Until recently it had thousands of missiles, many of which could carry an atomic weapon.
After
Israel claims to have destroyed hundreds of Iran’s missile launchers, but is unlikely to have completely wiped out Iran’s ability to fire a nuclear-capable missile.
Deliver a weapon
Still possible
Before strikes
With a weapon, Iran could conduct a nuclear test, as North Korea first did in 2006. There are many ways to deliver a weapon, but if it wants to strike a target from afar, it needs planes or missiles to deliver it. Until recently it had thousands of missiles, many of which could carry an atomic weapon.
After
Israel claims to have destroyed hundreds of Iran’s missile launchers, but is unlikely to have completely wiped out Iran’s ability to fire a nuclear-capable missile.
Science
The numbers of gray whales migrating along the California coast continue to plummet
The number of gray whales migrating along the California coast has plummeted again this year, dropping to levels not seen since the 1970s, according to federal officials.
There are now likely fewer than 13,000 gray whales migrating along the North American Pacific coast — fewer than half the population’s 27,000 peak in 2016, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Although a single cause for the population shrinkage has not been determined, scientists believe it is likely the result of a changing climate and its impact on the animals’ Arctic and subarctic food supply.
This year, scientists in Mexico reported ominous indicators as they observed gray whales wintering in the shallow, warm, protected lagoons of the Baja California Peninsula. They said that very few calves had been born, and that many adult whales were dying.
The pattern has since continued, with U.S. researchers saying they observed only 85 calves migrating north to the whales’ Arctic feeding grounds. That’s the lowest number of calves counted since researchers began keeping records in 1994.
In addition, 47 whales have died along the U.S. Pacific coast this year. Although this number is smaller than the 122 that perished in 2019, the population is now much smaller than it was at that time.
Twenty of the whales that have died since March 30 expired in the San Francisco Bay area, according to the Sausalito, Calif.-based Marine Mammal Center. The bay historically was not visited by this cetacean species.
Researchers aren’t sure why gray whales began frequenting San Francisco Bay, but have suggested they may do it when they are looking for food.
Gray whales tend to summer in Arctic waters, where they gorge themselves on tiny, mud-dwelling invertebrates such as worms and shrimp-like critters called amphipods.
During typical years of food abundance, the whales would fill themselves up and fast as they migrated 10,000 miles south to their wintering grounds in the lagoons of the Baja peninsula. They wouldn’t eat again until the following summer.
But in recent years, observers along the coast and in the bay have seen gray whales exhibiting behaviors suggestive of foraging and feeding — an indication that they may be short on fuel.
According to a news release this month by the NOAA, one of the most concerning aspects of these latest numbers is the continued population drop since 2019. While these whales have faced population shrinkages in the past, they tended to rebound after a few years.
“The environment may now be changing at a pace or in ways that is testing the time-honored ability of the population to rapidly rebound while it adjusts to a new ecological regime,” NOAA biologist David Weller said in the release.
Science
Trump administration restores funds for HIV prevention following outcry

The Trump administration has lifted a freeze on federal funds for HIV prevention and surveillance programs, officials said, following an outcry from HIV prevention organizations, health experts and Democrats in Congress.
The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health received notice from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday that it had been awarded nearly $20 million for HIV prevention for the 12-month period that began June 1 — an increase of $338,019 from the previous year.
“Let’s be clear — the Trump administration’s move to freeze HIV prevention funding was reckless, illegal and put lives at risk,” said Rep. Laura Friedman (D-Glendale) in a statement. “I’m relieved the CDC finally did the right thing — but this never should have happened.”
The CDC didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Friedman and other advocates for HIV prevention funding sent a letter to Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. last month, warning that proposed cuts to these programs would reverse years of progress combating the disease and cause spikes in new cases — especially in California and among the LGBTQ+ community.
The letter cited estimates from the Foundation for AIDS Research, known as amfAR, suggesting the cuts could lead to 143,000 additional HIV infections nationwide and 127,000 additional deaths from AIDS-related causes within five years.
Los Angeles County, which stood to lose nearly $20 million in annual federal HIV prevention funding, was looking at terminating contracts with 39 providers. Experts said the dissolution of that network could result in as many as 650 new cases per year — pushing the total number of new infections per year in the county to roughly 2,000.
“Public Health is grateful for the support and advocacy from the Board of Supervisors, the Los Angeles County Congressional delegation, and all of our community based providers in pushing CDC to restore this Congressionally approved funding,” a spokeswoman for the county’s health department said.
“Looking forward, it is important to note that the President’s FY26 budget proposes to eliminate this funding entirely, and we urge our federal partners to support this critical lifesaving funding,” she said.
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