Politics
Young, Black and Republican: House conservative aims to win Black voters over with cognac and cigars
FIRST ON FOX — Republicans are ramping up efforts to reach out to Black voters as a critical November election approaches, with President Biden, a Democrat, appearing to lose support with minorities.
Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas, is spearheading an initiative to recruit Black voters, particularly Black men, into the party’s fold after former President Trump in 2020 showed surprising strength with that traditionally Democratic constituency. Hunt told Fox News Digital in an exclusive interview that Trump’s popularity with Black men is a “phenomenon,” and shared his view that the GOP has an opportunity to win a new generation of voters — if they show up where they are.
Republicans need to “fish where the fish are,” Hunt said: “Our party doesn’t always go to the Black community. I’ve been Black my whole life, man. Growing up — my family is from New Orleans, I grew up here in Houston. And it dawned on me that whenever you look around, you don’t see any Republicans actually taking what we want as a party to the Black community.”
Hunt aims to change that with a series of events he’s calling “Congress, Cognac, and Cigars.” Throughout the summer, the Texas representative will host conversations inviting Black men who live in minority-majority cities in swing states to hear how Republicans will lead on issues that matter to all Americans.
NEW POLL REVEALS DEMS ARE LOSING SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT FROM THESE 2 KEY DEMOGRAPHICS: ‘ESPECIALLY CONCERNING’
Reps. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas, right, and Russell Fry, R-S.C., attend a House Judiciary Committee markup on the Border Security and Enforcement Act of 2023 and other matters, in the Rayburn Building on Wednesday, April 19, 2023. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
The first event will take place on Tuesday, June 4th in Philadelphia and will feature a discussion between Hunt and his friend and college Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., with former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya as moderator. Similar events will follow in Atlanta, Ga, Detroit, Mich. Milwaukee, Wisc., Charlotte, N.C. and other cities in states key to winning the 2024 presidential election.
The initiative comes as recent polls have showed minority voters appearing to sour on President Biden. The surveys, released Monday by the New York Times, Siena College and the Philadelphia Inquirer, show Trump with the lead in five of the six key battleground sates where he was narrowly defeated by Biden four years ago.
Especially concerning for Democrats is the polls found Biden leading Trump among Black voters 63% to 23%, which would be a sharp drop from the 87% of Black voters who supported Biden in 2020 and helped him flip Georgia and other swing states. If the results stand on election day, Trump winning more than 20% of the Black vote would be the highest level of backing by Black voters of a GOP presidential candidate in generations.
Hunt argues the tide is now turning in favor of Trump and Republicans.
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A flyer advertises the “Congress, Cognac, and Cigars” event featuring Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas, Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., and moderator and former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya. (Office of Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas)
“President Trump in 2020 got 18.2% of the Black male vote. That’s almost 20%. To put that in perspective, [2008 Republican nominee] John McCain got roughly 4% of the Black male vote. So what you’re seeing is exponential growth,” Hunt said. “And if we could turn that 20% into 25%, which is very likely at this point, now we’re having a very different conversation.”
Hunt acknowledged that the dramatic political realignment he described “doesn’t happen overnight.” But he said the seed is planted because Biden has been “a horrible president in the Black community,” pointing to high inflation and the border crisis.
Inflation rose again in April, with wholesale prices climbing another 2.2%, the highest level since April 2023, according to a Labor Department report released Tuesday. The report comes one day before the Biden administration will release the closely watched consumer price index (CPI), which measures prices paid directly by consumers. That report is expected to show inflation rose 0.4% in April from the previous month and climbed 3.4% from the same time last year.
“What you hear a lot is President Biden harps about how great the stock market is right now. Well yeah, that’s good if you have the kind of capital for investments. But everyday middle class workers that make under $80,000 a year are getting absolutely destroyed,” Hunt said, citing rising costs for eggs, bacon and other groceries.
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“The Black community is hypersensitive to that because the Black community is in a lower socioeconomic demographic than the average American,” he added.
Fox News political analyst Gianno Caldwell said it is “critically important” for Republicans to be present in the Black community if they hope to win their support.
“Republicans don’t win in many of these areas because they don’t show up, and that’s what’s been the problem,” Caldwell said.
He agreed with Hunt’s assessment that the Democratic Party’s stronghold on the Black vote is loosening as living costs rise and illegal immigrants receive millions of taxpayer dollars in benefits denied to American citizens.
OUTRAGED RESIDENT WARNS WHAT $70M MIGRANT FUNDING WILL DO TO SANCTUARY CITY
A group of migrants receives food outside the migrant landing zone during a winter storm on January 12, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois. (KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI/AFP via Getty Images)
“It’s beginning to fall apart with Joe Biden … with migrants coming from all over the world into particular communities and resources being usurped in those communities,” said Caldwell, mentioning his hometown of Chicago as an example.
Matt Shupe, a Republican communications strategist and principal of Praetorian Public Relations, said Hunt and other Republicans would be wise to expand the party’s reach into places where the GOP has traditionally been risk-averse.
“Republicans should be campaigning everywhere, all the time, and to all voters, especially to voters that typically don’t vote Republican. Politics is about addition, not stagnation. We cannot afford to cede entire demographic groups; we will eventually wither away from attrition,” Shupe said.
“What Rep. Hunt and Rep. Donalds are doing is great. We need more ‘brand ambassadors’ like them to go outside their districts and speak to voters who don’t typically hear from Republicans,” he added.
CONTENTIOUS PRIMARIES IN 3 STATES SET UP CRUCIAL GENERAL ELECTION MATCHUPS IN HOUSE, SENATE – WHAT TO KNOW
Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) speaks during the Moms for Liberty Joyful Warriors national summit at the Philadelphia Marriott Downtown on June 30, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Donalds will appear with Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas at a “Congress, Cognac, and Cigars” event in Philadelphia on June 4th. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
The “Congress, Cognac, and Cigars” tour is Hunt’s own initiative and is not officially supported by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), which seeks to elect Republicans to the House of Representatives. But the NRCC has launched a multi-million-dollar “Battle Station Program” that has set up field offices in 25 swing districts where Republicans hold office, with plans to add 20 offices in challenger districts once the primary season ends.
“Republicans can compete anywhere when we recruit candidates who share a similar life story and experiences as the people they are running to represent. Wesley Hunt is a critical partner in expanding the GOP’s outreach to minority voters,” said NRCC National Press Secretary Will Reinert.
Connecticut’s 5th Congressional District is a prime NRCC target, where former State Senator George Logan, who is Black, is expected to win the Republican primary and challenge Rep. Jahana Hayes, D-Conn. If Logan wins, he would a small but growing number of Black Republicans serving in the House.
Winning over a constituency that has backed the Democratic Party with super majorities since the Great Depression is no small task. But Hunt noted that between the 117th and 118th Congress, the number of Black Republicans elected doubled from two to four. He argues small, incremental changes will come as Black voters see young, enthusiastic Republicans like himself and Donalds, both under 45, engaging their communities and meeting them where they are.
Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas, walks down the House steps of the Capitol on Thursday, May 18, 2023. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
“This is the Republican Party today, and the reason why it’s the Republican Party today is the growth that we have seen over the course of the past few generations that created a Wesley Hunt,” Hunt said.
“So now Wesley Hunt has got to tell the Black community this: I know what your grandparents went through. I know what your parents went through. But this is a true meritocracy today. And my generation doesn’t have any ties to Jim Crow. We have ties to a low mortgage. We have ties to feeling safe. We have ties to border security. We have ties to lower information.
“We have developed a meritocracy, so let’s act like it — and the Republican Party is the one that wants to treat everyone fairly, and the Democratic Party is the party that wants to pick winners and losers,” Hunt said. “And that’s not America.”
Fox News Digital’s Paul Steinhauser and Fox Business’ Megan Henney contributed to this update.
Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.
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HEBRON, KY – Ed Gallrein, the Republican congressional candidate backed by President Donald Trump who is challenging Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky for the GOP nomination, landed extra firepower on the eve of the state’s primary.
Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and Kentucky farmer, was joined on the campaign trail Monday by Secretary of War Pete Hegseth.
Massie has long been one of Trump’s most vocal GOP critics in Congress and the Republican primary in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District, in the northeastern part of the state, the latest test of Trump’s immense grip over the GOP.
“President Trump needs reinforcements, and that’s what war fighters do. They stand behind leaders and have their back,” Hegseth said at an event organized by America First Works, a Trump-aligned nonprofit political advocacy group.
TRUMP SCORES MAJOR PRIMARY VICTORY AS CASSIDY OUSTED IN LOUSIANA
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, right, joins former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, at an event on the eve of Kentucky’s primary, in Hebron, Kentucky on May 18, 2026. Gallrein is backed by President Donald Trump as he primary challenges Rep. Thomas Massie for the GOP nomination in the state’s fourth congressional district. (Jessica Sonkin/Fox News)
Massie, a libertarian-minded lawmaker who repeatedly takes aim at the president over foreign policy, including the Iran war and unconditional U.S. military aid to Israel, also successfully pushed for the release of government files related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
But Hegseth argued that Massie’s record is one of “too much grandstanding, too few great votes, years of acting like being difficult is the same thing as being courageous. It’s not. Real courage means stepping up when the mission matters most, when we need that tough vote to beat left-wing lunatic Democrats the most.”
“President Trump does not need more people in Washington who are trying to make a point, especially from his own party. He needs people willing to help him win, to vote with him when it matters the most,” Hegseth added.
Hegseth’s remarks, which came soon after a stop at nearby Fort Campbell to award medals for service members, were rare for the civilian head of the nation’s military. Defense secretaries have traditionally avoided appearing at political events.
Ahead of the stop, Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said Hegseth would appear only “in his personal capacity” and that “no taxpayer dollars will be used to facilitate his visit.”
Hegseth noted the unusual appearance.
“I have to say up front, for the lawyers, that I’m here in my personal capacity as a private citizen, a fellow American, and a fellow combat veteran.”
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But Massie, who’s locked in a competitive clash with Gallrein in what’s become the most expensive congressional primary in history, claimed in a Fox News Digital interview on Monday that Hegseth’s stop “shows that I’m up in the polls. They wouldn’t be sending the Secretary of War to my congressional district if I weren’t.”
“I think it also shows I’m tougher than Iran, and I don’t even have a nuclear weapon. I mean, they are all in at this race. It’s basically a national race at this point, the most expensive race primary in congressional history, and that’s because, you know, I’m up there, I’m getting things done. I got the Epstein files released, I’m getting legislation in the farm bill, I’m getting legislation passed on the floor, and they want to shut me down,” Massie emphasized.
Gallrein, speaking with Fox News Digital ahead of his event with Hegseth, charged that Massie’s “running against President Trump, and the agenda that has been put forward by the Republican Party.”
Kentucky’s primary is being held two weeks after Indiana’s primary, where Trump-backed challengers ousted five sitting Republican state senators who last December teamed up with Democrats to defeat the president’s push for congressional redistricting in the GOP-dominated Midwestern state.
And the ballot box showdown in Kentucky comes three days after Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana was ousted as he sought renomination. The senator came in third in the primary, behind Trump-backed Rep. Julia Letlow and conservative Louisiana Treasurer John Fleming.
Cassidy’s political defeat came five and a half years after he voted to convict Trump after he was impeached by the House for his role in the violent Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol by supporters who aimed to upend congressional certification of former President Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory. Trump was acquitted by the Senate.
Massie said he “absolutely can” overcome the Trump endorsement of Gallrein. “I’ve got the groundswell here, like my events. I’ve got 100-200 sometimes 300 people show up. My opponent had to cancel events because he couldn’t get enough people, you know, to fill up a Dairy Queen, half a Dairy Queen.”
SCOOP: TRUMP-BACKED FORMER NAVY SEAL LAUNCHES GOP PRIMARY CHALLENGE AGAINST MASSIE
Republican Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky campaigns on the eve of his state’s primary, in Mason County, Kentucky on May 18, 2026. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)
The race has become the most expensive in House history in terms of ad spending, with over $32 million shelled out, according to the nationally known ad tracking firm AdImpact.
Much of that money has been shelled out by Trump’s allies and pro-Israel groups.
“Here’s the thing, I’ve got nothing against Israel. I just have never voted for foreign aid. When I said America First, I meant it. I don’t vote for foreign aid to Egypt, to Syria, to Ukraine. I’ve got a flawless record on this, and I’m not going to ruin it by sending foreign aid to one country,” Massie said as he defended his stance on Israel.
And Massie touted that while Trump’s allies and pro-Israel groups have spent tens of millions to take him out, he said, “I’ve got tens of thousands of grassroots donors who are funding me $50 at a time, $20 at a time. We’ve been able to match them to go toe to toe with them on TV using grassroots donors, and it’s really galvanized the nation.”
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U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) leaves to speak with the media after the House voted 427-1 to approve the Epstein Files Transparency Act and the release of documents and files at the U.S. Capitol on November 18, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images)
Trump has repeatedly targeted Massie in social media posts in the closing days of the primary campaign.
The president said in a video posted to Truth Social on Monday that he hoped Kentucky voters would put Massie “out of business” and that “we’re in a fight against the worst congressman in the history of our country.”
And Trump praised Gallrein as “a great guy” and “a great patriot.”
But Massie said Trump’s taunts on social media may backfire.
“It shows he’s losing sleep, his reputation is on the line. He really shouldn’t have got involved in this race, because I vote with him 90% of the time,” the congressman said.
San José Mayor Matt Mahan’s run for California governor has been defined from the start by his donor list.
Mahan entered the race late and with little statewide name recognition, but catapulted into contention thanks to massive funding from billionaire tech titans, venture capitalists, cryptocurrency investors and other Silicon Valley elites. In a state with more than 23 million voters and hugely expensive media markets, the money signaled Mahan would be a contender.
It also spurred accusations from his more liberal Democratic competitors and powerful labor leaders that Mahan is beholden to Big Tech, including forces aligned with President Trump.
California Labor Federation President Lorena Gonzalez Fletcher recently described Mahan as “funded by Trump’s big tech billionaires,” while fellow Democratic candidate Tom Steyer — a billionaire running against corporate interests — called him “MAGA Matt Mahan.”
That framing has persisted, despite Mahan being a centrist Democrat who has publicly criticized Trump.
On Thursday, Mahan released a four-page “Plan to Hold Big Tech Accountable and Ensure AI Works for All Californians.” The proposal called for AI and data centers to pay for their power and water needs, fund workforce stability initiatives and ensure human oversight of AI tools in critical sectors such as healthcare. It also called for the state to use AI to become more efficient, to bar cellphones in schools and to require parental consent for kids 15 and under joining social media.
In an interview with The Times, Mahan, 43, said AI is “one of the most significant trends in society” and needs to be addressed.
He also rejected the notion that he would do Big Tech’s bidding, and the idea that his support from tech leaders is entirely or even largely premised on his plans for their industry.
“I’ve spoken very little about tech with any of my donors,” he said.
Mahan said his fundraising has instead been “centered on how we get California on a better path in terms of building housing, improving the quality of our public schools, solving our biggest problems,” which “just resonates with people in the tech industry.”
A ‘digital native’
Mahan, the son of a teacher and a mailman, grew up in the farming community of Watsonville but commuted to San José to attend high school at Bellarmine College Prep on scholarship as a low-income student. He went on to Harvard University, where he was student body president and classmates with Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, spent a year in Bolivia building irrigation systems, and then taught for two years in Alum Rock as part of the Teach for America program.
He then joined Causes, an early Facebook application that allowed nonprofits to build grassroots support online, and rose to become chief executive. In 2014, he co-founded Brigade, a nonpartisan platform where voters could advocate for issues, which was acquired in 2019. He won a San José City Council seat in 2020, and was elected mayor in 2022.
An early mayoral profile described Mahan as painting a whiteboard behind his desk to “write on the wall as I did in my tech days.” Another noted he used ChatGPT to write speeches. A third recounted how he’d used AI to make city buses run faster.
Mahan said he learned as a startup leader and a classroom teacher that metrics matter — that “when we take our precious tax dollars and invest them in public services, we should measure our performance.”
He said he has always believed government should take the best tech has to offer while being vigilant about the risks it poses, which maybe comes naturally to him as a millennial who remembers “the world before the internet” but is also something of a “digital native.”
Donors explain
Between Jan. 1 and April 18, Mahan’s campaign raised nearly $13.5 million, according to state campaign finance filings. During the same period, an independent expenditure backing Mahan called Back to Basics raised about $22.7 million, while another launched by the group Deliver for California raised nearly $3.3 million.
The donors are a who’s who of tech leaders, venture capitalists and other leaders in the gig, gaming, digital media and AI defense fields.
Sergey Brin, the co-founder of Google, gave the maximum individual contribution of $39,200 to Mahan directly, and $1 million to the Deliver for California committee. Reed Hastings, the co-founder and chairman of Netflix, gave the maximum contribution to Mahan, plus $1 million to the Back to Basics committee.
Some donors, such as LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, who gave the maximum to Mahan, are well-known supporters of progressive causes. Others, such as Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale and crypto founder David Marcus, who maxed out to Mahan, are also Trump backers.
Brin, a friend of Gov. Gavin Newsom since the Democrat was mayor of San Francisco, has been moving rightward recently. He has donated to the Republican National Committee and in March was appointed to the White House tech advisory council. He’s also a major donor to the nonprofit opposing the ballot measure for a new tax on California billionaires — which Mahan also is against.
Brin, Lonsdale and Marcus did not respond to a request for comment. Hastings and Hoffman declined to comment.
Several other tech donors did speak with The Times — and universally described their support for Mahan as less to do with his tech policies, and more to do with issues important to all Californians.
Jamie Siminoff, who sold his home security startup Ring to Amazon for $1 billion and gave the maximum donation to Mahan, said he thinks L.A., where he lives, is the “greatest city in the world” and California is the “best state in the world.” But he sees Mahan as someone who could make improvements by bringing the state toward the political middle on public safety, housing and homelessness.
“He’s just like a nice, pragmatic, sort of centrist person, from what I can see, [who] wants to make California better, and I’m 100% behind that.”
Siminoff said it doesn’t hurt that Mahan speaks the same language as many tech leaders, who are mostly just “pragmatic inventors and entrepreneurs” who want California’s leader to be “principled in thinking about fixing things.”
Ruchi Sanghvi, the first female engineer at Facebook and a former Dropbox executive who state records show donated $25,000 to Mahan, said she has known Mahan since he was leading Causes but fell out of touch. When he entered the governor’s race, and she “got all these emails from people that I respect” saying they were supporting him, she asked for a meeting.
At that meeting, she said, Mahan “really dug in on some of the core issues that I care about,” including housing, homelessness and education.
The San Francisco resident, political independent and mother of three said the idea that tech leaders are backing Mahan because they believe he will scratch their back in business is wrong. Referring to his tech plan’s restrictions on social media for youth, she said, “I don’t think of that as scratching my back.”
Instead, “what really resonates with me and my peers is that, yes, he is pragmatic,” Sanghvi said. “He cares about measurable outcomes, which I think is very critical.”
Marc Merrill, co-founder, co-chairman and chief product officer of L.A.-based video game developer and e-sports company Riot Games, gave the maximum to Mahan, as did his wife, Ashley, founder of the sleepwear brand Lunya. In a statement to The Times, Merrill said he and his wife are lifelong Californians who love the state and support Mahan because of his record “addressing California’s most pressing challenges with practical, results-oriented solutions” in San José.
Merrill said Mahan brought down violent crime, reduced homelessness with “data-driven programs that address root causes rather than just managing the problem,” and “fostered an environment where businesses are choosing to invest and grow in the city.”
Tech vs. labor?
Gonzalez Fletcher said tech leaders have long “been very clear about their desire to support candidates who won’t regulate AI, to support candidates who will go after organized labor” — and their support for Mahan is no different.
She pointed as an example to a March event attended by Mahan and hosted by one of his most vocal backers: Garry Tan, a venture capitalist and chief executive of Y Combinator, a startup incubator in San Francisco.
At the event — which was part of Tan’s launch of a new statewide group called Garry’s List, which he has described as a “Rotary Club for radical centrism” — Chris Larsen, the co-founder of the cryptocurrency network Ripple, railed against the influence of unions in California politics and the “weak” response from business leaders, according to video.
“We’ve got to fight on par with the unions when they’re proposing stupid, job-killing ideas like the San Francisco CEO tax,” Larsen said. He noted that several other candidates for governor, including former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter, whom he’d donated to, had backed the measure to tax companies that pay their chief executive 100 times more than their average employee.
Neither Tan nor Larsen responded to a request for comment.
Gonzalez Fletcher, a former state legislator, said the argument that California Democrats have caused the state’s biggest problems by bowing to unions is false, and that what is more true is that “ruling class” Democrats such as Newsom “acquiesce to business interests” driving the state’s affordability and homelessness crises.
She said employers get away with underpaying workers and big landlords are allowed to take advantage of renters. She said Airbnb, as a tech example, has gone unchecked despite causing “a lot of the removal of housing stock.”
She said one reason she opposes Mahan is that he “suffers from the same love affair with Big Tech” as Newsom.
Steyer — who has funded his own campaign to the tune of nearly $200 million — has repeatedly struck a similar note.
Earlier this month, his campaign wrote that “Mahan continues to fail working Californians by catering to tech billionaires and wealthy special interest groups.” In February, it wrote that although Mahan had the support of “powerful special interests hellbent on keeping California a playground for the rich,” Steyer had the backing of “bus drivers, cafeteria workers, and custodians.”
Airbnb declined to comment but in the past has denied claims its platform substantially contributes to housing affordability issues, and has donated to housing initiatives. Airbnb co-founder Nathan Blecharczyk, a Mahan donor, did not respond to a request for comment.
Mahan said he values unions, in part because he grew up in a union household and benefited from the high-quality healthcare that provided, included when he was hospitalized for a collapsed lung as a teenager.
He said he has also worked with tech employers who “are inventing the future, quite literally,” and “creating a lot of jobs and opportunity.”
Mahan said the idea the two are inherently at odds is false, because “business needs labor, and labor needs business,” and the real question is “how to balance everyone’s needs.”
“If we don’t have a strong enough regulatory environment, and business has too much power, workers can be exploited, the environment can be exploited and we can see really negative social outcomes,” he said. “But the flip side is also true. If labor in our politics has too much power, you can also see distortions, you can see investment flow elsewhere, you can see less housing get built.”
Mahan said that “neither side has a monopoly on the truth,” and that government has to “bring people together and strike the right balance.”
He also defended Airbnb, which in San José pays taxes just like hotels, he said.
“We don’t see Airbnb as an antagonistic thing. We don’t let them take over the market, we regulate them, we charge them, and we use their tax revenue to provide services to people.”
He said the state’s housing crisis is due to over-regulation slowing new building to the point where it cannot keep up with job growth — which he called “fundamentally unsustainable and unfair” to low-income folks pushed out of job centers as a result.
The answer is building more homes, more quickly, he said, including by reducing building fees and streamlining permitting processes — which he said he has done in San José and would replicate statewide as governor.
“I am, first and foremost, focused on making government deliver results that make a real difference in people’s lives,” he said. “That’s my North Star.”
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election in November, but fewer than a tenth of those races are likely to be competitive. And that number has been dwindling.
One culprit? The nationwide redistricting battles, in which Republicans and Democrats across the country have resorted to creative cartography to draw as many safe seats as possible as they fight for control of Congress.
Based on 2024 presidential vote margin
Competitive districts lost with recent redistricting
Competitive districts — where a candidate leads a challenger by fewer than 10 percentage points — are increasingly rare. That is partly because many voters choose to live in communities with like-minded people, making many areas more politically homogenous and less competitive. And it is partly because parties are able to draw gerrymandered House maps, whittling down the number of swing districts even further.
“It’s a mutually reinforcing process,” said Eric Schickler, a political science professor at U.C. Berkeley.
Presidential candidates won about 28 percent of congressional districts with fewer than 10 percentage points in 2008. In 2024, that decreased to 20 percent.
Four swing districts vanished after Florida’s latest round of redistricting in April. Republicans redrew the state’s congressional maps. The new map retained only one district that would have been considered competitive in the 2024 presidential election.
Nearly 20 years ago, Florida had 14 competitive districts.
Florida
2024 presidential vote margin
2024 districts: 5 competitive
New districts: 1 competitive
+20 or more Harris
+10–20
Less than +10 Harris
Less than +10 Trump
+10–20
+20 or more Trump
Texas’ new maps shifted seats in favor of Republicans and in the process wiped out the only two districts that would have been considered competitive in 2024.
2024 presidential vote margin
+20 or more Harris
+10–20
Less than +10 Harris
Less than +10 Trump
+10–20 +20 or more Trump
Texas
2024 districts: 2 competitive
New districts: 0 competitive
Democrats have taken a similar route. Three swing districts disappeared in California when lawmakers redrew its map so Democrats could pick up seats.
2024 presidential vote margin
+20 or more Harris
+10–20
Less than +10 Harris Less than +10 Trump
+10–20
+20 or more Trump
California
2024 districts: 14 competitive
New districts: 11 competitive
Using presidential election results to analyze House races is far from a perfect forecast for the 2026 midterms. For one, voters don’t always cast ballots along party lines. And while voters overwhelmingly turned out for Republican candidates in 2024, the political environment in this year’s midterms is expected to favor Democrats.
But presidential results are a useful lens because of their high turnout and ability to offer a clearer view of partisan trends than congressional elections, which can be highly influenced by incumbency.
The lack of competition is bad for democracy, experts say. Voters have less of a reason to participate if races are not close, and they have fewer ways to force out leaders with whom they are unhappy.
“If you do away with competitive seats, you’re just going to get much less of a response when voters are dissatisfied,” Mr. Shickler said.
House members who occupy safe seats have fewer incentives to compromise or work across the aisle. Many can win by appealing to their party’s base, who are often more likely to vote in primaries.
That increases polarization and can lead to gridlock in Congress, according to experts. “We see that pretty well in our politics already,” said Asher Hildebrand, a professor of public policy at Duke University. “And we’re only going to see more of that as swing districts disappear.”
Mr. Hildebrand points to his home state of North Carolina, which went through two rounds of mid-decade redistricting within two years. Its legislature passed new maps in 2023 that left just two competitive districts. The latest map passed in October shifts one of those districts, currently represented by Don Davis, a Democrat, from one which Mr. Trump won by three percentage points in 2024 to one that he would have won by 12.
2024 presidential vote margin
+20 or more Harris
+10–20
Less than +10 Harris
Less than +10 Trump +10–20
+20 or more Trump
North Carolina
2024 districts: 2 competitive
New districts: 1 competitive
About half of voters in North Carolina voted for Kamala Harris in 2024. But only about a quarter of the state’s delegates are Democrats.
After the Supreme Court weakened the Voting Rights Act, and with encouragement from the Trump administration, Republicans in several Southern states — Louisiana, Tennessee, Alabama and South Carolina — have moved quickly to redraw maps in their favor. Democrats have threatened to do the same in blue states.
Use the dropdown below to explore how districts’ 2024 presidential election results have shifted in each state that has passed new maps.
+20 or more Harris +10–20
Less than +10 Harris
Less than +10 Trump
+10–20
+20 or more Trump
Note: A court has not yet approved Alabama’s use of a new map.
2024 districts: 1 competitive
New districts: 0 competitive
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Oregon51 minutes ago
Oregon Lottery Powerball, Pick 4 results for May 18
