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What to Make of the ‘Zombie Vote’ Against Donald Trump

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What to Make of the ‘Zombie Vote’ Against Donald Trump

Even after Nikki Haley dropped out of the Republican presidential primary, effectively handing the party’s nomination to former President Donald J. Trump, nearly 20 percent of G.O.P. primary voters have cast ballots for someone other than Mr. Trump. The Pennsylvania primary on Tuesday, where Ms. Haley won more than 16 percent, was just the latest example.

These anti-Trump votes have been closely watched, particularly in light of the unusually high number of votes for “uncommitted” and candidates other than President Biden in this year’s Democratic primary.

Ballots cast for candidates who have suspended their campaigns are sometimes called zombie votes. This phenomenon is hardly new.

In fact, a review of contested primaries since 2000 reveals that sizable shares of the electorate routinely chose someone other than the eventual nominee, even after all other serious contenders had dropped out.

The zombie vote in presidential primaries

Share of the vote against the nominee after all serious contenders have dropped out

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Note: The zombie vote refers to the median vote share against a party’s eventual nominee in primary contests after their major opponents had all withdrawn.

By The New York Times

In 2020, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont withdrew from the Democratic primary on April 8, leaving Joseph R. Biden Jr. as the only serious candidate in the race. Still, in the weeks and months that followed, Mr. Sanders received votes. In the Pennsylvania Democratic primary on June 2, 2020, for example, more than 20 percent of voters chose someone other than Mr. Biden, including 18 percent who selected Mr. Sanders.

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The zombie vote in this year’s Republican primary has actually been low by historical standards. In Democratic and Republican primaries going back to 2000, roughly a quarter of voters picked a candidate other than the eventual nominee even after all the other serious contenders had exited the race.

How this year’s zombie vote compares to previous years

Each rectangle represents the vote share in a state’s presidential primary contest.

There are many factors that lead to zombie votes. Not all of them indicate a true protest vote from party loyalists against the eventual nominee.

One factor is the rise of early voting and mail ballots. In Florida, for example, around one in three Republican voters had mailed their ballots before Ms. Haley dropped out on March 6.

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However, she has continued winning a decent chunk of votes in states where nearly all voting has occurred after her departure. In the Wisconsin election on April 2, Ms. Haley won 13 percent of the vote.

The Trump campaign has argued that some of Ms. Haley’s support has come from Democrats voting in Republican contests. This may explain the zombie vote in, for example, Georgia, where any voter can vote in either presidential primary.

But the pattern has persisted even in states like Pennsylvania, Connecticut and New York where the primaries were open only to registered Republicans.

Unlike protest votes against incumbent presidents in the form of minor candidates and ballots cast for “uncommitted,” contested primaries feature big-name candidates who get wide media exposure, have clear policy differences and forge emotional connections with many voters. Perhaps the affinity some voters develop is the easiest explanation of the persistent zombie vote across so many election cycles.

We shouldn’t expect the zombie vote to go away any time soon. In the past, the share of voters still supporting candidates who had already withdrawn remained relatively consistent, even on the last day of primaries held before the party conventions. And there is no pattern linking the size of the zombie vote to the eventual nominee’s chances of winning or losing in the general election.

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For Mr. Trump, what matters is how many of Ms. Haley’s primary voters will rally behind him come November. Polls have shown that her supporters are likely to say they will vote for Mr. Biden. Even so, those same polls often find that many of those voters already supported Mr. Biden in 2020.

Sources

Primary election results for 2024 are from The Associated Press. Results for previous years are from the Federal Election Commission. The Democratic primaries in 2008 and 2016 were not included in the analysis because they were contested through the final primaries. Caucus results were also not included.

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Column: Watch your step, Democrats. O.C.'s purple shine hides a red underbelly

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Column: Watch your step, Democrats. O.C.'s purple shine hides a red underbelly

In 2016, my beloved homeland of Orange County shocked political observers by favoring Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump, the first time we went with a Democrat for president since FDR.

In 2018, O.C. voters made history yet again when we sent an all-Democratic congressional delegation to Capitol Hill. The following year, more people in O.C. were registered Democrats than Republicans — another first.

Local and national media outlets tripped over themselves to report on this political earthquake. Orange County — land of Richard Nixon and kooky conservatism, crucible of evangelical Christianity and culture war politics, the place Ronald Reagan repeatedly said was “where the good Republicans go before they die” — now sported a political color never before associated with our suburban sprawl of 3.2 million people:

Purple.

In an era where Trump was ascendant, seeing O.C. turn more liberal offered hope to Democrats nationwide. Because if Orange County — Orange County! — could reject the GOP, it could happen anywhere.

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That narrative continued in 2020 as O.C. voters once again rejected Trump, even as Republicans Young Kim and Michelle Steel won congressional seats, and again two years later, even though Republicans won the county in all statewide elections. This year, political pundits are doubling down on the idea that Orange County’s mauve march continues.

Publications from the Guardian to this one now regularly use the color to describe O.C.’s political hue. Longtime political consultant Mike Madrid will host a podcast this summer called “Red County, Blue County, Orange County” (I sat down for an episode), where he’ll argue that the future of American politics is here. The podcast is produced by UC Irvine’s School of Social Ecology, which recently released a poll including the cheeky assertion that “Orange is the New Purple.”

In the poll of 804 Orange County adults, President Biden holds a healthy lead among likely voters, most of whom are also going with the Democratic candidate in their congressional districts. The respondents were almost evenly split in their party identifications, with about a third Republican, a third Democrat and a third choosing another option.

UC Irvine’s findings are already getting attention and exciting Democrats. Money will probably flow toward congressional races, because taking out Steel and Kim and keeping the seat currently occupied by Rep. Katie Porter can help flip the House.

But Orange County’s purple revolution reminds me of Jesus’ bitter comment in the Gospels that a prophet is honored everywhere except in his hometown, and among his own family.

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While the rise of Democrats in O.C. has made all the headlines, the facts on the ground tell a different story. In terms of local political power, Republicans still rule — and it’s not even close.

Orange County Board of Supervisors Chairman Donald P. Wagner, seen in 2020, recently won reelection with a resounding 63% of the vote.

(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

They hold every countywide elected position and all the seats on the Orange County Board of Education. While reform-minded sheriffs and district attorneys have won in major metro areas in recent years, O.C.’s top lawmen are proudly regressive Republicans — and voters love it. Dist. Atty. Todd Spitzer won his 2022 reelection bid outright in the primary. Sheriff Don Barnes did even better that spring: there was no election because no one bothered to run against him.

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There are more Republican Assembly members from O.C. than Democratic ones, and a majority of city councils in the county lean GOP. Democrats do hold all but one state Senate seat, but on the Board of Supervisors, their majority is only putative because Doug Chaffee, who represents northern Orange County, has the pesky habit of siding with his GOP colleagues a bit too much.

Political change is happening here, but to act as if a purple Orange County exists is dangerous for Democrats. It lulls them into believing their own hype — and local history offers a cautionary tale.

In 1990, Republicans held a 22% voter registration advantage over Democrats, and the idea that Democrats could matter outside of Santa Ana and a handful of other cities was never considered, because it was so outlandish.

What did the GOP do with that advantage? They let it erode like the shoreline in San Clemente.

Pundits attribute this development to the exodus of white Republicans to other states, the emergence of the Latino vote and an increase in college-educated voters, who overwhelmingly sided with Biden over Trump in the UC Irvine poll.

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No, it was hubris — that grand leveler of the mighty — that did the GOP in. The party alienated Latino voters for a generation by backing the anti-immigrant Prop. 187, and it let a once-vaunted farm system of candidates dry up. Leaders decided to stand athwart a liberalizing Orange County instead of adapt.

Democrats, on the other hand, capitalized on openings — the GOP war on LGBTQ+ and abortion rights, court-mandated district elections, ever-increasing cost-of-living — with two successive party chairs, Fran Sdao and Ada Briceño, who played to win instead of settling for perpetual second-banana status. The historic developments of 2016, 2018 and 2019 all came because of an underdog mentality that assumed nothing.

Two volunteers help a woman register to vote at the OC Fair in Costa Mesa.

Nick Hernandez, left, and Mary Carter, center, volunteers with the Laguna Beach Democratic Party, help Sydney Magno, of Riverside, register to vote as a Democrat at the Democratic Party of Orange County booth during the OC Fair in Costa Mesa in 2019.

(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

I hope Orange County Democrats remember this. Their victories have worked like chlorine in the whiny conservative swamp that was Orange County. But thinking we now wade in a purple wonderland proved disastrous in 2022. Besides the reelections of Spitzer and Barnes, the party endorsed a more progressive Democrat to take on Chaffee, only to see Chaffee win decisively.

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Even worse was what happened in Huntington Beach. Leading up to the general election, four of the city’s seven council members were Democrats — a once-unthinkable development in MAGA-by-the-Sea. All local liberals had to do was win one of those seats, and they could have created a blue beachside haven akin to HB’s rival for the Surf City nickname, Santa Cruz.

Instead, a bunch of Democrats ran and canceled each other out. Republicans, meanwhile, formed a slate and took over the City Council. This new majority has turned Huntington Beach into a poster child for Trumpism, and they’re not done: another slate of hard-right candidates is taking on the three remaining Democratic council members in November.

Democrats have already staged key victories this year, hinting that they’ve learned their lessons. They beat back a recall of Santa Ana councilmember Jessie Lopez and helped recall two conservative members of the Orange Unified school board. In both cases, they were going up against better-funded opposition and fought as if they lived in the ruby red O.C. of not that long ago.

Leave the thoughts of a purple reign to Prince, O.C. Dems — there’s still a lot of work to do.

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Australian lawmakers send letter urging Biden to drop case against Julian Assange on World Press Freedom Day

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Australian lawmakers send letter urging Biden to drop case against Julian Assange on World Press Freedom Day

A group of Australian lawmakers wrote to President Biden on World Press Freedom Day urging him to drop the charges against WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange as press freedom groups call for the release of Assange and other journalists around the world facing legal cases.

In a Friday letter, the co-chairs of the “Bring Julian Assange Home” Parliamentary Friendship Group – Members of Parliament Andrew Wilkie, Independent; Josh Wilson, Labor Party; Bridget Archer, Liberal Party, and Sen. David Shoebridge, Greens – called on Biden to end the prosecution of Assange, who is in a U.K. prison fighting extradition to the U.S. to face espionage charges for publishing classified American military documents 14 years ago.

A hearing will be held May 20 in front of the British High Court in London to determine if Assange, an Australian publisher, can be extradited to the U.S. to stand trial or if he can make a full appeal challenging his extradition. If the court rules in favor of extradition, Assange’s only remaining option would be at the European Court of Human Rights.

“On World Press Freedom Day, we write as a group of Australian Parliamentarians from across the political spectrum seeking the freedom of Julian Assange,” the lawmakers wrote. “We write in the hope that Mr. Assange, who has endured maximum security imprisonment in the United Kingdom’s Belmarsh Prison for more than five years without conviction on any substantial charge, can go free, can go home, can be reunited with his wife, children, and family.”

ASSANGE EXTRADITION CASE MOVES FORWARD AFTER US ASSURES UK COURT THERE WILL BE NO DEATH PENALTY

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A group of Australian lawmakers wrote to President Biden on World Press Freedom Day asking him to drop the charges against WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange. (Getty Images)

Assange, 52, faces 17 counts under the Espionage Act for allegedly receiving, possessing and communicating classified information to the public, as well as one charge alleging conspiracy to commit computer intrusion. If extradited, Assange would stand trial in Alexandria, Virginia, and could face up to 175 years in a maximum security prison if convicted.

The charges were brought by the Trump administration’s DOJ over WikiLeaks’ 2010 publication of cables leaked by U.S. Army intelligence analyst Chelsea Manning, and the Biden administration has continued that prosecution. The information detailed alleged war crimes committed by the U.S. government in Iraq, Afghanistan and the detention camp at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, as well as instances of the CIA engaging in torture and rendition.

The letter comes after Biden said last month he is considering a request from Australia to drop the charges against Assange.

“We were heartened by President Biden’s recent acknowledgment that the United States is considering Australia’s request to end the prosecution of Julian Assange,” the letter reads. “We respectfully urge the United States to discontinue the long, expensive, and punishing extradition process that prevents Mr Assange from returning to his family in Australia.”

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The White House did not respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.

SQUAD AND MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE JOIN 16 LAWMAKERS CALLING ON BIDEN TO FREE JULIAN ASSANGE

Assange has been held at London’s high-security Belmarsh Prison since he was removed from the Ecuadorian Embassy on April 11, 2019, for breaching bail conditions. He had sought asylum at the embassy since 2012 to avoid being sent to Sweden over allegations he raped two women because Sweden would not provide assurances it would protect him from extradition to the U.S. The investigations into the sexual assault allegations were eventually dropped.

A U.K. district court judge had rejected the U.S. extradition request in 2021 on the grounds that Assange was likely to kill himself if held under harsh U.S. prison conditions. Higher courts overturned that decision after getting assurances from the U.S. about his treatment.

Assange’s lawyers have continued to fight against his extradition, currently seeking the opportunity for a full appeal following the May 20 hearing, which comes after the U.S. provided assurances to the U.K. last month that Assange would not face new charges that could lead to the death penalty. They also said he would be allowed to make a First Amendment argument in a U.S. courtroom – things Assange’s lawyers and family described as empty promises.

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In March, when the British court asked the U.S. to provide assurances, it rejected most of Assange’s appeals – six of nine he lodged, including allegations of a political prosecution and concerns about an alleged CIA plot under the Trump administration to kidnap or kill Assange while he remained hunkered down in the Ecuadorian Embassy in London.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of the Labor Party has said “there is nothing to be served by his ongoing incarceration” and the Leader of the Opposition, Peter Dutton of the Liberal Party, has said he believes this case has “gone on for too long.”

In February, the House of Representatives in the Australian Parliament passed a motion demanding Assange be freed, stressing “the importance of the U.K. and the U.S.A. bringing the matter to a close so that Mr. Assange can return home to his family in Australia.”

BRITISH COURT RULES JULIAN ASSANGE EXTRADITION ON PAUSE UNTIL US GUARANTEES NO DEATH PENALTY

Stella Assange

Stella Assange, wife of Julian Assange, speaks beside a poster of her husband at the Royal Courts of Justice in London on Feb. 21, 2024. (AP)

A cross-party delegation of Australian lawmakers visited Washington, D.C., in September and met with U.S. officials, members of Congress and civil rights groups in an attempt to secure Assange’s freedom.

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“While we believe the prosecution of Julian Assange is wrong as a matter of principle, we say in any case that there is no justice, compassion, or reasonable purpose in the further persecution of Mr. Assange when one considers the duration and harsh conditions of the detention he has already suffered,” the letter concludes.

The Obama administration in 2013 decided not to indict Assange over WikiLeaks’ 2010 publication of classified cables because it would have had to also indict journalists from major news outlets who published the same materials.

President Obama also commuted Manning’s 35-year sentence for violations of the Espionage Act and other offenses to seven years in January 2017, and Manning, who had been imprisoned since 2010, was released later that year.

No publisher had been charged under the Espionage Act until Assange, and many press freedom groups have said his prosecution sets a dangerous precedent intended to criminalize journalism.

“President Biden has repeatedly said that journalism is not a crime, all the while his administration continues to prosecute WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange under the Espionage Act for acts that journalists engage in every day,” Caitlin Vogus, Deputy Director of Advocacy at Freedom of the Press Foundation, told Fox News Digital. “To truly celebrate World Press Freedom Day, the Biden administration should immediately drop the Espionage Act charges against Assange.”

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She continued: “If the DOJ tried to prosecute reporters at the New York Times or Wall Street Journal under the Espionage Act for speaking to sources, obtaining classified information, and publishing that information, we would rightfully see it as a severe threat to the First Amendment. The Espionage Act prosecution of Assange threatens press freedom by opening the door to precisely those kinds of prosecutions of journalists by the current or future administrations.”

Reporters Without Borders Executive Director Clayton Weimers told Fox News Digital that the prosecution of Assange “could set a very dangerous precedent for American press freedom.”

“This would be the first time the Espionage Act, an archaic law badly in need of reform, would be used to punish the publisher of factual information, not just the leaker,” he said. “In this case, the leaker, Chelsea Manning, has already served her sentence. But if the Justice Department is successful in prosecuting Assange, they’re opening the door to prosecuting any journalist or media outlet – including Fox News – to prosecution for publishing government secrets, even if that publication is in the public interest.”

On World Press Freedom Day, many other journalists around the world are facing legal cases for their journalistic work, including Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, who is being held in Russia on espionage charges for allegedly stealing secret military documents.

“We continue to call for the Kremlin to release Evan Gershkovich, and indeed for the release of all wrongly jailed journalists around the world,” Weimers said. “We also call on the State Department to designate journalist Alsu Kurmasheva, a US citizen, as ‘wrongfully detained.’”

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ARTIST THREATENS TO DESTROY PICASSO, REMBRANDT, WARHOL MASTERPIECES WITH ACID IF JULIAN ASSANGE DIES IN PRISON

A protester holds a placard outside the Royal Courts of Justice in London

Julian Assange faces 17 counts under the Espionage Act for allegedly receiving, possessing and communicating classified information to the public, as well as one charge alleging conspiracy to commit computer intrusion. (AP)

When governments arrest or imprison journalists for covering the news, Vogus said, it “threatens everyone’s freedom and ability to be informed.”

“Arresting journalists for covering the news is an authoritarian bullying tactic whether it’s happening in Russia or Austin, Texas,” she said. “Compelling reporters to reveal their confidential sources will make whistleblowers less likely to come forward. Sources often risk their livelihoods and even their freedom to tell journalists what they know about corruption, crimes, and wrongdoing.”

Reporters Without Borders downgraded the U.S. to 55 among nations in the 2024 World Press Freedom Index.

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“The U.S. should be a beacon for press freedom around the world. Instead, we have recently seen journalists in the U.S. arrested and prosecuted simply for doing their jobs across the country, and witnessed growing distrust fueled by the irresponsible rhetoric of some political officials,” National Press Club president Emily Wilkins and National Press Club Journalism Institute president Gil Klein said in a statement. “The falling ranking of the U.S. in the World Press Freedom Index shows that we are headed in the wrong direction.”

The Freedom of the Press Foundation, Reporters Without Borders, National Press Club and many other press freedom groups are urging Congress to pass the bipartisan PRESS Act, which would prevent the federal government from compelling journalists to reveal their sources and confidential work.

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With oil funds and Formula One, Saudi Arabia steamrolls its way onto sports’ hallowed grounds

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With oil funds and Formula One, Saudi Arabia steamrolls its way onto sports’ hallowed grounds

To understand the scope of Saudi Arabia’s ambitions in the sporting landscape, don’t look just to this spring’s Formula One race in Jeddah — which ended with a predictable one-two win for the Red Bull team. The revealing action was at the after-party.

Amid a bloom of fireworks over Jeddah’s coast, dozens of drones buzzed in synchronicity to spell out the kingdom’s goal: “Saudi Arabia. Home of Sporting Events.”

It’s a vision that increasingly seems within reach. Backed by funds from the state-owned oil giant Aramco and the vast endowment of its Public Investment Fund, the autocratic monarchy has in only a few years steamrolled its way onto the sporting world’s most hallowed grounds.

In soccer, it has lavished its local clubs with hundreds of millions of dollars, courted superstar players to its league and successfully lobbied to host the 2034 World Cup. Its bid to create a rival golf tournament rattled the genteel PGA enough to force it into a reluctant union. Tennis, boxing, cricket, pro wrestling, even eSports — all have been rocked by the sheer scale of investment the kingdom is wielding to transform itself into a sports and entertainment powerhouse.

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Soccer fans hold pictures of Saudi Arabia’s King Salman, left, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ahead a match at King Abdullah stadium in Jiddah, Saudi Arabia. The kingdom is building a new stadium for the 2034 World Cup.

(Uncredited / Associated Press)

But it is in motorsports, and Formula One in particular, where Saudi Arabia has made some of its most audacious and expensive moves, outpacing its regional rivals — Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, all host F1 races — amid a wider push to establish the Gulf as a racing hub.

“It’s amazing what they’re doing here,” said Jefferson Slack, commercial and marketing director for Aston Martin Aramco.

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“No county in the world is investing in motorsports as much as Saudi Arabia.”

Slack would know. An executive with three decades of experience in sports investments and management of athletes such as Michael Jordan, he joined the team before Saudi Arabia came on board, when Canadian billionaire Lance Stroll bought the defunct Force India Formula One team and rebranded it as Aston Martin in 2021.

Since then, Aramco, the kingdom’s flagship oil company, has plowed money into the team, while the Saudi Public Investment Fund increased its stake in car manufacturer Aston Martin to more than 20%. As of January, Aramco became exclusive title sponsor and is signed on as a strategic partner until 2028. Rumors abound that Aramco may try to buy the team outright.

Critics charge that the massive investments are an attempt at “sportswashing,” calculated to distract from an abysmal human rights record — imprisonment and violence against commentators and activists, travel bans, and male guardianship laws over women.

The kingdom says it is merely modernizing and diversifying its economy, with F1 as an eager partner. Less than two years after Saudi henchmen killed and dismembered a Saudi Washington Post columnist and monarchy critic, the F1 and the kingdom’s flagship oil company entered into a 10-year partnership deal.

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The deal, which began in 2020, is believed to have cost the Saudis some $45 million a year. Some whisper it’s only a matter of time before Saudi Arabia bids for the race series franchise as a whole, which Liberty Media Corp. bought for $4.6 billion in 2017 and whose valuation has since risen many times over — in no small part because the Netflix series “Formula 1: Drive to Survive” has supercharged the sport’s international popularity.

A light show in the sky spells out "Saudi Arabia: Home of sporting events."

A light show spells out Saudia Arabia’s ambitions after the Grand Prix in Jeddah in March.

(Anadolu / Anadolu via Getty Images)

In addition, there’s a half-billion dollar racing circuit under construction in the city of Qiddiya, a mega project near the capital, Riyadh, intended to be part city and part tourism, sport and entertainment zone.

Plans are also in place to develop racing at a grassroots level, said Martin Whitaker, head of the Saudi Motorsports Company, the PIF-owned commercial entity charged with bringing motor sport events to the country.

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“We’ve raised the bar in how the sport is seen globally,” he said. “Now we have to produce a concrete set of foundations and platforms so we can build it here.”

Creating that sort of ecosystem for racing is harder than it sounds. Soccer for example, can be played just about anywhere: Find an empty lot or quiet street, use whatever is available for goalposts, and that’s largely it.

Racing on the other hand requires infrastructure and major investment. Starting a pipeline of kids in karting — the gateway into circuit racing — can be painfully expensive; move up the ranks to the higher classes and you’re looking at $80,000 a race.

A race car speeds past blurred lights.

Logan Sargeant of the Williams team drivings qualifying for the Formula One race at Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah Corniche Circuit.

(NurPhoto / Getty Images)

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Without serious sponsorship, drivers have little hope of sustaining a career, restricting the sport to what Mercedes driver and F1 superstar Lewis Hamilton (who comes from a working-class background) said in 2021 was a “billionaire’s boy’s club.” Even with that advantage, the odds of getting a seat in an F1 car are astronomical.

One afternoon this spring, visiting journalists were given a tour of a new regulation karting circuit in Jeddah — the first of its kind in the country that could host internationally sanctioned events. The idea, according to Prince Khaled bin Sultan Al-Faisal, chairman of the Saudi Automobile and Motorcycle Federation, was to have many more such circuits across the country, with a focus on drawing children as young as 5.

“We’ve hosted events and championships, but we have to focus on the sport itself and serve its practitioners, and start with a young generation. A circuit like this is the first step,” he said, adding that he was expecting a 15- to 20-year-long timeline before a Saudi F1 driver appears on the grid.

Whitaker, standing nearby, said it wasn’t just about finding drivers of the future.

“It’s engineers, technicians, placing kids with internships with other teams, talking to international teams to base themselves here,” he said.

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A car drives on the track in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

Mercedes driver George Russell drives in a practice sesson at the Jeddah Corniche Circuit.

(Darko Bandic / Associated Press)

“It’s developing career paths for young people.”

That puts the endeavor in line with Vision 2030, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s all-encompassing plan to diversify the oil-rich kingdom’s economy and change its reputation from strict religious realm to tourism and sports hot spot, all while providing jobs for young Saudis.

But first you have to get people interested in F1.

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::

Soccer remains far and away the most popular sport in Saudi Arabia and throughout the region, but Liberty representatives have identified the Middle East as one of F1’s fastest-growing markets.

About a third of F1’s roughly 1.55 billion fans worldwide became interested in the sport in the last four years, according to Salesforce data. Meanwhile, analysts at the World Economic Forum predict sport industries in the Middle East to grow by 8.7% in 2026 — more than double the global average.

The region, meanwhile, has gone all-in with Formula One. Races in the Gulf bookend the season — Bahrain in the beginning, Abu Dhabi at the end. The Gulf region is home to four races, the second most after Europe’s nine.

At F1’s top administrative levels you find Emirati former rally driver Mohammed Ben Sulayem heading the Federation Internationale de l’Automobile, or FIA, the sport’s governing body. Bahrain’s Sheikh Abdullah bin Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa serves as the FIA’s vice-president of sport for the Middle East and North Africa.

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::

Almost anyone who attends an F1 race, if they’re honest, will tell you it’s easier to understand what’s happening if you watch it on TV. But it’s not just about who’s leading the field.

In Jeddah, the rich and connected watch the race from the premium lounge, with a commanding view of the track and “grazing tables” loaded with precision-prepared pastries and concoctions such as caviar cheesecake. Extra perks include traversing the pit lane as the teams prepare or paddock access, all the way up to meet-and-greets with F1 ambassadors. The price tag on that sort of package? $13,999.

In the cheap seats — which at a cost of at least $200 for a three-day pass are hardly cheap and allow only the occasional glance at the cars as they scream by — the fans didn’t seem to miss the caviar cheesecake.

Before the Jeddah race, a DJ bounced among fans, riling up the crowd with impromptu quizzes or throwing F1 merch, and some of the drivers passed by and signed shirts. Above, the Saudi Falcons, the country’s jet aerobatics team, roared back and forth over the circuit.

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Even in the stands farther from the track the sound of an F1 car is a multisensory affair: speed takes on physical proportions, the engine roar passes through your body.

Jets trail streams of color over a racetrack in Saudi Arabia against hazy sun.

The Saudi Hawks aerobatic team performs over the racetrack in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

(Hassan Ammar / Associated Press)

“My friends and I are really into it. In my community, at least, there are a lot of F1 fans,” said Sireen Fataani, a 16-year-old wearing a Ferrari jacket. Beside her was Ibaa Qattan, also 16, and her sister, Shumookh Qattan, 22.

The three were walking around the pit lane after one of the non-F1 races at the track that weekend, gazing at the cars and hoping to catch a glimpse of some of their favorite drivers — McLaren’s Oscar Piastri for Sireen, Mercedes’ George Russell for Ibaa, and McLaren’s Lando Norris for Shumookh.

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“I wanted something to be obsessed about one summer, and for me it was F1,” Ibaa said.

She insisted she didn’t get into it because of “Drive to Survive.” “Too much drama,” she said dismissively.

Both of the teens were enrolled in “F1 in Schools,” an Aramco-sponsored program that has students establishing and managing their own racing team as part of STEM and other lessons. Ibaa had taken on the role of head engineer for her team, while Sireen was doing marketing.

“Ours is called Fennec,” she said. “It’s a desert fox that lives in Saudi Arabia.”

: :

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Not everyone is convinced that the region’s plans to build up its racing bonafides are a good thing.

There have been grumblings over how the infusion of Gulf money has changed F1. Hosting a race is prestigious and a calling card for countries, but the high fees — Saudi Arabia pays an estimated $55 million for the honor — mean storied tracks in Europe (where the most die-hard fans reside) have to compete in ways they didn’t before, and without the coffers of a petrostate backing them up.

Aside from the fees, tracks such as Belgium’s Spa have been forced into upgrades and expensive face-lifts or risk being dropped from the F1 calendar.

Corruption charges have also been leveled at the FIA’s leadership under Ben Sulayem. He was accused in March of trying to block the Las Vegas circuit from being certified ahead of last year’s Grand Prix. That followed a previous accusation that he had interfered in the 2023 Saudi Arabia Grand Prix in favor of Aston Martin. The FIA’s ethics committee cleared him of both charges.

A man wearing race team clothing speaks to a man wearing a white buttondown with a logo that reads "FIA."

Christian Horner, left, team principal of the Red Bull Formula One team, talks with FIA President Mohammed Ben Sulayem before a 2023 race in Austin, Texas.

(Darron Cummings / Associated Press)

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And then there are the accusations of sportswashing, as wealthy nondemocratic countries try to lure more sporting events to the Gulf.

During the last soccer World Cup, host Qatar, which had already bought the French team Paris Saint-Germain, was accused of trying to launder its repressive reputation. The monarchy’s human rights record and labor rights nevertheless edged into the spotlight.

Saudi Arabia’s efforts in soccer, Formula One and golf, among other sports, have kicked up similar criticism as Saudi money has continued to flow.

“The leaders of these autocratic nations strategically utilize sports, leveraging major events such as Formula One to operate beyond the conventional political stage,” said Stanis Elsborg, a Danish researcher with Play the Game, an initiative to promote democracy and transparency in international sports.

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“While immediate changes may be subtle, the long-term ownership by an autocratic state poses substantial threats to the sport’s integrity and introduces conflicts of interest.”

Formula One drivers race in close quarters on a track.

Max Verstappen, in the Oracle Red Bull Racing RB20 at right, leads the field at the start during the Formula One Grand Prix of Saudi Arabia on March 9.

(Eric Alonso / Getty Images)

Others allege that Saudi Arabia is leveraging its influence on F1 officials to have them lobby governments to weaken legislation that curbs usage of internal combustion engines and fossil fuels.

“If your goal is to diversify into other industries, it’s a little inconsistent that your sponsorship is all about the oil business,” said Frank Huisingh, founder of Fossil Free Football, a campaign organization that aims to remove high-polluting companies from soccer sponsorship.

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“They need to work on their image to keep selling a product that is becoming very unpopular but also because they’re a country with a bad reputation for both human rights and climate reasons.”

In an interview with Fox News in September, Bin Salman dismissed such accusations, insisting his main concerns are domestic growth.

“If sportswashing is going to increase my GDP by way of 1%, then I will continue doing sportswashing,” he said.

“I don’t care… I’m aiming for another one-and-a-half percent. Call it whatever you want, we’re going to get that one-and-a-half percent.”

In that same interview, Bin Salman expressed shame at the country’s repressive laws, but said that dozens of laws had been amended and that he was “trying to prioritize the change day by day,”

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“Do we have bad laws? Yes. Are we changing that? Yes,” he said.

F1 portrays its involvement in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf in general as a driver for that change. During the race weekend, F1 Academy, an all-women’s race series and training program run by Scottish former racing driver Susie Wolff, had its season opener in Jeddah. Wolff called the event “iconic.”

“I think to open here in a country where just six years ago women couldn’t drive really shows incredible progress,” she said at a panel on sports’ role in Saudi Arabia.

“Sometimes in life, you have to see it to believe it. And we are out there to show that this sport wants to provide opportunity to women and wants to make the sport more diverse in the long term.”

Drivers were also encouraging.

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“We are not going to change the world at the end of the day as a sport, but we try to share positive values. And then, of course, it’s also up to the country to make positive changes,” Max Verstappen said at a post-race news conference. The Belgian-Dutch Red Bull driver added that he had already seen change in the kingdom and that it was a “work in progress.”

Two Formula One drivers wear racing suits with Oracle and Red Bull logos.

Red Bull driver Sergio Pérez of Mexico, left, came in second to Belgian-Dutch teammate Max Verstappen at the Formula One Saudi Arabian Grand Prix.

(Giuseppe Cacace / Associated Press)

Ferrari driver Charles Leclerc, who is from Monaco, said F1 needed to go to different countries “in order to hopefully open minds.” Red Bull driver Sergio Pérez said it was important to expand beyond its traditional areas.

“I feel like in the past, Formula One was very centralized in Europe, not just with drivers, but also the people working in the paddock,” said Pérez, who is from Mexico, adding that now there were more nationalities at different levels of the sport.

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Some in the Gulf are already on the yearslong journey to score a place on the F1 grid.

Sisters Amna, 24, and Hamda Al Qubaisi, 21, started karting in their home country of the United Arab Emirates as children with their father’s encouragement and are now part of F1 Academy. In 2021, Hamda became the first woman to win a podium finish in the history of the Italian F4 series.

When they started competing in races, they’d hear grumblings and anger from the Gulf region.

“In the beginning people were very unsupportive. They didn’t like the fact there was a girl competing in a male-dominated sport. We’d hear ‘Women belong in the kitchen. Women aren’t supposed to be playing a sport, they should focus on studies or something else,’” Amna Al Qubaisi said.

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Now “everything switched, and people are happy and supportive of what we’re doing,” she added.

Their racing careers have encouraged other women and girls, Hamda Al Qubaisi said. “They tell their father ‘Amna and Hamda are racing,’ and then he says ‘Why not?’”

“Every time we go back to visit our karting team, we’re seeing it grow more and more with girls from the Middle East, which makes it even more special.”

When Saudi Arabia’s first female racer, Reema Juffali, 32, got her first regular driver’s license while studying in the U.S. in 2010, women in the kingdom weren’t allowed behind the wheel.

Seven years later, King Salman, Bin Salman’s father, issued a decree overturning the ban on women driving. That same year, Juffali — then working a finance job in the U.K. — got her racing license, the first Saudi woman to do so. She made her professional debut at the TRD 86 Cup in Abu Dhabi in 2018 — the same year the kingdom began issuing driver licenses to women.

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Nearly six years later, Juffali sped through the turns in front of a home city crowd in the first F1 Academy race in Jeddah, also a significant and emotional milestone for her.

“I’ve been wanting to be able to share what I do with my friends, family, fans, people who have never really been able to come to my races,” she said.

But while there is progress on the track and some restrictions against women have been eased to much fanfare, women in Saudi Arabia are far from enjoying equal rights. Under the patriarchal government, women need a male guardian’s approval to get married or divorced. They are required by personal status laws to obey their husbands, and the law places fathers as the default guardians for children, among other limitations on women.

And though women are now able to drive, one activist who campaigned to overturn the driving ban is still caught up in Bin Salman’s crackdown on dissent.

Loujain al-Hathloul, who was imprisoned from 2018 until 2021, remains barred from leaving Saudi Arabia. Manahel al-Otaibi, 29, another women’s rights activist who had spoken in favor of Bin Salman’s reforms but called for more change to the male guardianship laws, was sentenced in January to 11 years for what the government labeled “terror offenses.”

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A woman climbs into her race car.

Saudi Arabia’s first female race driver, Reema Juffali, climbs into her car ahead of a race in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, in 2019.

(Fayez Nureldine / Getty Images)

Though Juffali acknowledges the criticism of her country, she says people need to come to Saudi Arabia and see the changes happening themselves.

“We’re not just advancing on sports, which speaks to me personally, but also to see young people who are so much more ambitious, so much more hungry and happy — I feel that when I’m here,” she said.

Juffali aims to boost Saudi participation in racing through the team she founded, Theeba Motorsport, named for her childhood nickname, which roughly translates as “she-wolf.” She hopes Theeba will become the first Saudi team to compete in the 24 Hours of Le Mans.

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“The aim is to one day be a Saudi team — not just drivers, but mechanics, engineers, for all facets of the team be Saudi,” Juffali said.

“These events we have, they’re for Saudis as well. This is serving a bigger purpose than anyone realizes.”

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