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What to Make of the ‘Zombie Vote’ Against Donald Trump

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What to Make of the ‘Zombie Vote’ Against Donald Trump

Even after Nikki Haley dropped out of the Republican presidential primary, effectively handing the party’s nomination to former President Donald J. Trump, nearly 20 percent of G.O.P. primary voters have cast ballots for someone other than Mr. Trump. The Pennsylvania primary on Tuesday, where Ms. Haley won more than 16 percent, was just the latest example.

These anti-Trump votes have been closely watched, particularly in light of the unusually high number of votes for “uncommitted” and candidates other than President Biden in this year’s Democratic primary.

Ballots cast for candidates who have suspended their campaigns are sometimes called zombie votes. This phenomenon is hardly new.

In fact, a review of contested primaries since 2000 reveals that sizable shares of the electorate routinely chose someone other than the eventual nominee, even after all other serious contenders had dropped out.

The zombie vote in presidential primaries

Share of the vote against the nominee after all serious contenders have dropped out

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Note: The zombie vote refers to the median vote share against a party’s eventual nominee in primary contests after their major opponents had all withdrawn.

By The New York Times

In 2020, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont withdrew from the Democratic primary on April 8, leaving Joseph R. Biden Jr. as the only serious candidate in the race. Still, in the weeks and months that followed, Mr. Sanders received votes. In the Pennsylvania Democratic primary on June 2, 2020, for example, more than 20 percent of voters chose someone other than Mr. Biden, including 18 percent who selected Mr. Sanders.

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The zombie vote in this year’s Republican primary has actually been low by historical standards. In Democratic and Republican primaries going back to 2000, roughly a quarter of voters picked a candidate other than the eventual nominee even after all the other serious contenders had exited the race.

How this year’s zombie vote compares to previous years

Each rectangle represents the vote share in a state’s presidential primary contest.

There are many factors that lead to zombie votes. Not all of them indicate a true protest vote from party loyalists against the eventual nominee.

One factor is the rise of early voting and mail ballots. In Florida, for example, around one in three Republican voters had mailed their ballots before Ms. Haley dropped out on March 6.

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However, she has continued winning a decent chunk of votes in states where nearly all voting has occurred after her departure. In the Wisconsin election on April 2, Ms. Haley won 13 percent of the vote.

The Trump campaign has argued that some of Ms. Haley’s support has come from Democrats voting in Republican contests. This may explain the zombie vote in, for example, Georgia, where any voter can vote in either presidential primary.

But the pattern has persisted even in states like Pennsylvania, Connecticut and New York where the primaries were open only to registered Republicans.

Unlike protest votes against incumbent presidents in the form of minor candidates and ballots cast for “uncommitted,” contested primaries feature big-name candidates who get wide media exposure, have clear policy differences and forge emotional connections with many voters. Perhaps the affinity some voters develop is the easiest explanation of the persistent zombie vote across so many election cycles.

We shouldn’t expect the zombie vote to go away any time soon. In the past, the share of voters still supporting candidates who had already withdrawn remained relatively consistent, even on the last day of primaries held before the party conventions. And there is no pattern linking the size of the zombie vote to the eventual nominee’s chances of winning or losing in the general election.

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For Mr. Trump, what matters is how many of Ms. Haley’s primary voters will rally behind him come November. Polls have shown that her supporters are likely to say they will vote for Mr. Biden. Even so, those same polls often find that many of those voters already supported Mr. Biden in 2020.

Sources

Primary election results for 2024 are from The Associated Press. Results for previous years are from the Federal Election Commission. The Democratic primaries in 2008 and 2016 were not included in the analysis because they were contested through the final primaries. Caucus results were also not included.

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Park Police union says officers ‘did everything they could’ during DC anti-Israel riot

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Park Police union says officers ‘did everything they could’ during DC anti-Israel riot

Following the protests at Union Station by anti-Israel agitators defacing federal property in protest of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to Congress, a Park Police union is pushing back against criticism that only a few arrests were made.

Thousands of Hamas-sympathizing agitators descended on Washington, D.C., Tuesday, at one point defacing federal monuments with phrases in support of the terrorist group responsible for the Oct. 7 attacks in Israel, saying, “Hamas is coming.” 

Twenty-three people were arrested at the protests, but some have suggested that number should have been higher. 

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., posted on X, “How many more times are they going to allow leftist degenerates who support terrorism and hate America to vandalize property and attack police? There should have been hundreds of arrests today in D.C. not just 23.”

HOUSE REPUBLICANS REPLACE AMERICAN FLAGS AT UNION STATION AFTER ANTI-ISRAEL PROTESTS

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The Columbus Memorial Fountain at Union Station during an anti-Israel protest on the day Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint meeting of Congress on Capitol Hill in Washington July 24, 2024.  (Reuters/Seth Herald)

But the U.S. Park Police Labor Committee is pushing back.

“Our officers on the ground did everything they could to protect life and property. In fact, despite having only 29 officers available to mitigate damage — 29! — with no additional help from the Department of the Interior, we processed several arrests for charges ranging from assault on a police officer to destruction of government property,” Kenneth Spencer, chairman of the United States Park Police Fraternal Order of Police, said in a statement. 

“That’s why it’s so disheartening to hear some members of Congress and members of the media, many of whom describe themselves as ‘champions’ of law enforcement, suggesting that officers gave protesters a ‘pass’ or that insufficient arrests were made. 

“Nothing could be further from the truth. Anyone who truly cares to understand the problem would see that our officer staffing crisis is at the root of our agency’s mission readiness. A small unit of 29 officers arrested 10 individuals while being assaulted by a mob of thousands. We simply did not have the staffing or resources to accomplish a mass arrest operation.”

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SEE IT: THE MOST DRAMATIC PHOTOS FROM WEDNESDAY’S PRO-HAMAS WASHINGTON, D.C. PROTESTS

A pro-Palestinian demonstrator sprays graffiti on Christopher Columbus Memorial Fountain at Union Station

An anti-Israel demonstrator sprays graffiti on the Christopher Columbus Memorial Fountain at Union Station on the day of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to a joint meeting of Congress on Capitol Hill in Washington July 24, 2024.  (Reuters/Nathan Howard)

At least one demonstrator, whose face was covered, was spotted by Fox News carrying what appeared to be the flag of the terrorist group Hamas while others were heard shouting “Allahu Akbar.”

KAMALA HARRIS REACTS TO ANTI-ISRAEL RIOTS AT DC’S UNION STATION

Protesters-gather-for-Israeli-PM-Netanyahu's-address-to-Congress-in-Washington

Anti-Israel demonstrators burn an effigy depicting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu outside Union Station on the day of Netanyahu’s address to a joint meeting of Congress on Capitol Hill in Washington July 24, 2024.  (Reuters/Nathan Howard)

The White House condemned the protests Wednesday evening, calling the chaos “disgraceful.” 

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“Identifying with evil terrorist organizations like Hamas, burning the American flag or forcibly removing the American flag and replacing it with another is disgraceful,” White House spokesperson Andrew Bates said in a comment to Fox News Digital Wednesday evening. 

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Ali: Kamala Harris has a campaign soundtrack: Beyoncé's 'Freedom'

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Ali: Kamala Harris has a campaign soundtrack: Beyoncé's 'Freedom'

Vice President Kamala Harris’ bid for the presidency has a soundtrack: Beyoncé’s “Freedom.”

The leading Democratic presidential candidate took the stage in her first visit to her Wilmington, Del. campaign headquarters and again during her first campaign rally in Wisconsin as the song played.

Now the cathartic anthem graces Harris’ first campaign ad, in which she says: “There are some people who think that we should be a country of chaos, of fear, of hate. But us? We choose something different: We choose freedom.”

Pit that against the musical number her competitor chose for his grand entrance on Night 3 of the Republican National Conference. Donald Trump walked out to James Brown’s “It’s a Man’s, Man’s, Man’s World,” a tone-deaf choice for a former president found liable for sexual abuse, who’s bragged about sexually assaulting women, a married man who paid hush money to a porn star and a former president who rolled back women’s reproductive rights 50 years with the repeal of Roe vs. Wade.

Maybe the Godfather of Soul would have endorsed Trump’s usage of his song, but Brown would be breaking with decades’ worth of musicians who’ve decried GOP candidates playing their tracks at rallies and booster events. Adele, Rihanna, R.E.M., the Rolling Stones, Prince, Neil Young, Guns N’ Roses and Queen are among the many artists who’ve spoken out against Trump using their tunes for campaign purposes.

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Heart bristled when the McCain-Palin campaign used “Barracuda.” Tom Petty insisted George W. Bush back away from “I Won’t Back Down.” Bruce Springsteen decried Ronald Reagan’s appropriation of “Born in the U.S.A.”

Beyoncé, however, gave Harris her blessing to use “Freedom,” a single from her 2016 blockbuster album “Lemonade.” The song, which features guest rapper Kendrick Lamar, is an explosive expression of empowerment. At the time of its release, it spoke to public outcry around police killings of unarmed Black men and women — Eric Garner, Tamar Rice, Freddie Gray — and protests that were largely fueled by the ire of younger generations.

Whether Beyoncé was singing about the tyranny of a cheating spouse or racial injustice (or both), the song became an anthem for a new, potentially potent block of the American electorate.

For the first time, Gen Z and millennials could now account for as many votes as baby boomers and their elders, groups that have made up a majority of the electorate for decades.

Folks under 40 have grown up with Beyoncé and her ubiquitous work. Think of Beyoncé like the Who for boomers — their work is everywhere (Republican Sen. Rand Paul played the band’s anti-war hit “Baba O’Riley” when he campaigned in 2015) — or Nirvana for Gen X, except no one cares what we think. Whatever, nevermind.

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The Harris campaign’s smart choice of music coincides with a willingness to lean into a meme culture that shot up organically around the 59-year-old VP since President Biden announced Sunday that he was dropping out of the race.

Pop star Charli XCX showed her support for Harris when she tweeted “Kamala IS brat.” The British singer is referring to the TikTok and Twitter edits of Harris’ image superimposed to songs from Charli XCX’s hit album “Brat.” The avalanche of memes come from a video clip in which Harris talks about her mother’s response to the hubris of youth: “You think you just fell out of a coconut tree? You exist in the context of all in which you live and what came before you.”

Right-wing social media used the quote to deride Harris as inarticulate and a “word salad” master, but liberal swaths of Gen Z have since reworked the clip into emojis and memes that celebrate Harris’ nonconformist approach. She’s become a viral sensation, in a good way, unlike J.D. Vance’s damning “single cat lady” memes and a cringey internet joke about encounters with couches.

It’s rare that relevant talent will shill for a Republican candidate. Case in point: Trump’s pop culture ambassadors at this year’s RNC were Kid Rock, Kanye’s ex Amber Rose and former WWE wrestler Hulk Hogan, whose big moment was ripping his shirt off and screaming “Let Trump mania run wild!”

Harris chose to let freedom ring, and she has Queen Bey behind her.

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Texas sues Biden administration over program giving birth control to teens without parents' knowledge

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Texas sues Biden administration over program giving birth control to teens without parents' knowledge

Texas officials are challenging a recent order from President Biden’s administration that would allow schools to distribute birth control to teenagers without parental consent.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton announced Thursday that his office is suing the Biden administration over their 2021 change to Title X guidelines banning parental consent requirements for birth control services.

“By attempting to force Texas healthcare providers to offer contraceptives to children without parental consent, the Biden Administration continues to prove they will do anything to implement their extremist agenda — even undermine the Constitution and violate the law,” Paxton said in a statement.

TRUMP SAYS HE ‘WILL NEVER ADVOCATE IMPOSING RESTRICTIONS ON BIRTH CONTROL’ OR OTHER CONTRACEPTIVES

A woman takes the next pill from a monthly pack of contraceptive pills.  (Annette Riedl/picture alliance via Getty Images)

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The Texas legal battle began in Dec. 2021 when US District Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk ruled that Title X — the federal program that provides free, confidential contraception to anyone regardless of age, income or immigration status —  violates parental rights and violates state and federal laws.

The case was argued by former solicitor general of Texas Jonathan Mitchell, representing father Alex Deanda, who said he was “raising each of his daughters in accordance with Christian teaching on matters of sexuality, which requires unmarried children to practice abstinence and refrain from sexual intercourse until marriage.”

SCHUMER PLANS VOTE ON ‘CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHT TO CONTRACEPTION’ IN BID TO PROTECT SENATE DEMOCRAT MAJORITY

Matthew Kacsmaryk

Kacsmaryk, a Trump appointee, previously ruled that parents must be informed when birth control is provided to their children under 18 years old. (Senate Judiciary Committee via AP)

In response, the federal government updated guidelines to state that Title X projects “may not require consent of parents or guardians for the provision of services to minors, nor can any Title X project staff notify a parent or guardian before or after a minor has requested and/or received Title X family planning services.”

Paxton is now seeking a permanent injunction on this rule, which he claims defies the findings of the federal court.

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Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and his wife Angela are pictured outside the Supreme Court on Nov. 1, 2021.

Paxton and his wife Angela are pictured outside the Supreme Court. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Paxton filed the lawsuit in a federal court in Amarillo. It will likely be heard by Kacsmaryk, the same judge who previously ruled parents must be informed of birth control provided to their children.

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