The Constitution dictates that the 119th Congress begins at noon et on Friday. 

And the first order of business in the House is to elect the Constitutional officer for the legislative branch of government: Speaker of the House.

Only the House votes for Speaker. And the House can’t do anything – I’ll repeat that, anything – until it chooses a Speaker. 

It can’t swear-in Members until the House taps a Speaker and he or she is sworn-in. The Speaker then swears-in the rest of the body, en masse. Then the House must adopt a rules package to govern daily operations. Only then can the House go about debating bills, voting and constructing committees for hearings. 

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If the House fails to elect a Speaker on the first ballot, it must proceed to a second ballot. 

And on and on.  

Consider for a moment that the House had never even taken a second vote for Speaker in a century before the donnybrook two years ago. It took four ballots to re-elect late House Speaker Frederick Gillett, R-Mass., in 1923. 

What is past is prologue for the House. Consider how the House consumed 15 rounds spread out over five days before electing former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., in January, 2023. The Speakership remained vacant – and thus, the House frozen – for 22 days after Republicans dumped McCarthy nine months later. House Republicans then tapped House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., for Speaker. Scalise withdrew his name before there was even a floor vote. House GOPers then tapped Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, to become Speaker. But Jordan lost three consecutive votes for Speaker on the House floor, bleeding support on each ballot. House Republicans then anointed House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., for Speaker. Emmer withdrew hours later. 

House Republicans finally nominated House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., for the job. The Louisiana Republican won on the floor. But some conservatives have been disappointed in Johnson ever since. They’ve flagged how he handled multiple, interim spending bills from last November on. They didn’t like that he allowed a bill on the floor to aid Ukraine. They opposed him doing yet another interim spending bill in September. They really didn’t like how he worked with Democrats on major, must-do pieces of legislation. And then there was the misstep of the staggering, 1,500-page interim spending package which Mr. Trump and Elon Musk pulverized from afar in December. Johnson then did President-elect Trump’s bidding with another spending package – which included a debt ceiling increase. But 38 House Republicans bolted on that bill. 

So Johnson’s tenure has been bumpy. And that’s why he’s on the hook come Friday afternoon during the vote for Speaker. Everyone on Capitol Hill is on tenterhooks when it comes to wrapping this up expeditiously. 

Here’s what will happen Friday at noon: 

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Acting House Clerk Kevin McCumber will preside until the House elects a Speaker. The first order of business is a “call of the House.” That’s where the House establishes how many of its Members-elect are there, simply voting “present.” The House should clock in at 434 members: 219 Republicans and 215 Democrats. There should be one vacancy. Former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., resigned in the fall – and said he did not “intend” to serve in the new Congress, despite having won reelection. 

Watch to see if there are absences in that call of the House. Fox is told that Democrats who have struggled with health issues of late – including Reps. Raul Grijalva, D-Ariz., Dwight Evans, D-Penn., and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., will likely be there. But the Speaker’s election is about the math. How many lawmakers report to the House chamber will dictate margins in the Speaker’s vote.

Then it’s on to nominating speeches. Incoming House Republican Conference Chairwoman Lisa McClain, R-Mich., will nominate Johnson for Speaker. House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar, D-Calif., will nominate House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. Anyone else can then place someone’s name in nomination.

Then, the House calls the roll of Members-elect alphabetically. Each Member rises and verbally responds, calling out their choice by name. Reps. Alma Adams, D-N.C., Robert Aderholt, R-Ala., and the aforementioned Aguilar are the first names out of the block.

(Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

But lawmakers can vote for anyone they want. That includes persons who aren’t House Members. That’s why there have been votes cast over the years for the late Gen. Colin Powell, Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., former Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., and former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker. 

This is what Johnson – or anyone else must do – to win the Speakership:

The winning candidate must secure an outright majority of all Members voting for a candidate by name. 

So let’s say there are 434 members and all vote for someone by name. The magic number is 218. If Johnson gets the votes of all 219 Republicans, he wins. If Johnson gets 218 votes, he also wins. But 217? No dice. Under those circumstances Johnson would have prospectively outpolled Jeffries, 217-215 – with two votes going to other candidates. But the “most votes” doesn’t win. 217 is not an outright majority of House Members voting for someone by name. The House must take ANOTHER ballot to elect a Speaker. 

Fox is told there are anywhere from 12 to 17 Republicans who could vote for someone besides Johnson. And some Republicans are being cagey about their votes. 

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Here’s something to watch: Members who vote “present.”

Rather than voting for someone besides Johnson, some Republicans may protest by simply voting “present.” A “present” vote does not count against Johnson. 

So let’s do some hypothetical math here:

Let’s say 434 Members cast ballots. Jeffries secures support from all 215 Democrats. Three Republicans vote “present.” In other words, not voting for any candidate by name. Johnson scores 216 votes. He has the most votes. But more importantly, only 431 Members voted for someone by name. 216 is an outright majority of 431. 434 doesn’t matter under these circumstances. So Johnson becomes Speaker. 

But there is serious danger in too many Republicans voting “present.” 

Consider this scenario: 

All 215 Democrats vote for Jeffries. But five Republicans vote “present.” Johnson records 214 votes. 429 Members cast ballots for someone by name. The magic number here is 215. Guess who’s Speaker? Jeffries. He marshalled an outright majority of all Members voting for a candidate by name.

(Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

As they say in the movies, “You play a very dangerous game, Mr. Bond.”

With such a thin margin in the House, Republicans are absolutely tinkering with fire if they get too cute by half. Yes. Some conservatives might not want to re-elect Johnson as Speaker. But they certainly don’t want Jeffries. 

So it’s hard to say what happens on Friday afternoon. If the House dithers too long, this could delay the certification of the Electoral College vote on Monday. The House and Senate must meet in a Joint Session of Congress on January 6 to certify the election results. No House Speaker? No Joint Session. 

But something else will likely unfold if this drags on. Johnson loyalists and mainstream Republicans have had it with right-wing ideologues, the Freedom Caucus and other freelancers. Expect a full-on brawl between those two factions if Republicans struggle to elect a Speaker.

And as we wrote earlier, what is past is prologue. 

A protracted battle over the Speakership serves as prologue to the looming, internecine fights among Republicans when it comes to governing. That’s to say nothing of implementing a solitary plank of President-elect Trump’s agenda.

Local and federal officials are continuing to investigate the deadly explosion Wednesday morning of a Tesla Cybertruck outside the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas, including whether it was motivated by terrorism or linked to the killing of 15 people in New Orleans hours earlier.

The explosion outside the president-elect’s property near the iconic Las Vegas Strip killed the driver and left seven bystanders with minor injuries, officials said.

In New Orleans, a driver rammed his pickup truck into a crowd celebrating the new year on Bourbon Street. The attack, which the FBI has called an act of terrorism, killed 15 people and injured dozens more.

Local and federal officials said they are not ruling out a connection between the two New Year’s Day events. But they said the Las Vegas explosion appears to have been an “isolated incident,” with no lingering threat to Las Vegas tourists or residents.

The truck that exploded at the Trump Hotel was rented in Colorado, Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department Sheriff Kevin McMahill said.

A license-plate reader recorded the Cybertruck arriving in Las Vegas at about 7:30 a.m. Wednesday, McMahill said. The driver moved up and down the Las Vegas Strip for about an hour before pulling into the covered driveway outside the Trump Hotel. He said the vehicle exploded about 15 seconds later.

McMahill said the department has confirmed the name of the person who rented the Cybertruck, but did not say whether that person was the driver killed in the explosion. The driver’s name would not be released until immediate relatives have been notified and the department had “a 100% identification,” he said.

Investigators have not yet determined how the fire was ignited, but found gas and camping fuel canisters, as well as firework mortars, in the vehicle’s trunk, McMahill said.

McMahill said investigators are looking into whether the driver intentionally targeted one of Trump’s properties using a Tesla vehicle.

Elon Musk, Tesla’s chief executive, has joined the president-elect’s inner circle.

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“It’s a Tesla truck and we know that Elon Musk is working with President-elect Trump and it’s the Trump Tower, so there’s obviously things to be concerned about there,” McMahill said. “It’s something we continue to look at.”

Jeremy Schwartz, acting FBI special agent in charge of the Las Vegas office, said investigators are prioritizing identifying the driver and will then work to determine whether the attack was terrorism.

McMahill showed a video from outside the hotel showing the Cybertruck exploding outside the glass entrance doors to the hotel.

“The fact that this was a Cybertruck really limited the damage that occurred inside of the valet, because it had most of the blast go up through the truck,” McMahill said. “You’ll see that the front glass doors at the Trump Hotel were not even broken by that blast, which they were parked directly in front of.”

McMahill said Musk had been in touch with the Las Vegas police and provided video of the Cybertruck charging at Tesla stations before arriving in Las Vegas.

Eric Trump, one of the president-elect’s sons, thanked first responders for their “swift response and professionalism.”

“The safety and well-being of our guests and staff remain our top priority,” he wrote on X.

Musk, who owns X, wrote on the social media platform that “the whole Tesla senior team is investigating this matter right now.”

“We’ve never seen anything like this,” he added.

Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts issued a warning on Tuesday that the United States must maintain “judicial independence” just weeks away from President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration. 

Roberts explained his concerns in his annual report on the federal judiciary. 

“It is not in the nature of judicial work to make everyone happy. Most cases have a winner and a loser. Every Administration suffers defeats in the court system—sometimes in cases with major ramifications for executive or legislative power or other consequential topics,” Robert wrote in the 15-page report. “Nevertheless, for the past several decades, the decisions of the courts, popular or not, have been followed, and the Nation has avoided the standoffs that plagued the 1950s and 1960s.” 

“Within the past few years, however, elected officials from across the political spectrum have raised the specter of open disregard for federal court rulings,” Roberts said, without naming Trump, President Biden or any specific lawmaker. “These dangerous suggestions, however sporadic, must be soundly rejected. Judicial independence is worth preserving. As my late colleague Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg wrote, an independent judiciary is ‘essential to the rule of law in any land,’ yet it ‘is vulnerable to assault; it can be shattered if the society law exists to serve does not take care to assure its preservation.’”

“I urge all Americans to appreciate this inheritance from our founding generation and cherish its endurance,” Roberts said. 

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Roberts also quoted Chief Justice Charles Evans Hughes, who remarked that the three branches of government “must work in successful cooperation” to “make possible the effective functioning of the department of government which is designed to safeguard with judicial impartiality and independence the interests of liberty.”

“Our political system and economic strength depend on the rule of law,” Roberts wrote.

A landmark Supreme Court immunity decision penned by Roberts, along with another high court decision halting efforts to disqualify Trump from the ballot, were championed as major victories on the Republican nominee’s road to winning the election. The immunity decision was criticized by Democrats like Biden, who later called for term limits and an enforceable ethics code following criticism over undisclosed trips and gifts from wealthy benefactors to some justices.

A handful of Democrats and one Republican lawmaker urged Biden to ignore a decision by a Trump-appointed judge to revoke FDA approval for the abortion drug mifepristone last year. Biden declined to take executive action to bypass the ruling, and the Supreme Court later granted the White House a stay permitting the sale of the medication to continue. 

The Supreme Court is seen in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 5, 2024. (MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images)

The high court’s conservative majority also ruled last year that Biden’s massive student loan debt forgiveness efforts constitute an illegal use of executive power. 

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Roberts and Trump clashed in 2018 when the chief justice rebuked the president for denouncing a judge who rejected his migrant asylum policy as an “Obama judge.”

In 2020, Roberts criticized comments made by Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer of New York while the Supreme Court was considering a high-profile abortion case.

Roberts introduced his letter Tuesday by recounting a story about King George III stripping colonial judges of lifetime appointments, an order that was “not well received.” Trump is now readying for a second term as president with an ambitious conservative agenda, elements of which are likely to be legally challenged and end up before the court whose conservative majority includes three justices appointed by Trump during his first term.

In the annual report, the chief justice wrote generally that even if court decisions are unpopular or mark a defeat for a presidential administration, other branches of government must be willing to enforce them to ensure the rule of law. Roberts pointed to the Brown v. Board of Education decision that desegrated schools in 1954 as one that needed federal enforcement in the face of resistance from southern governors.

Chief Justice John Roberts, left, and Associate Justice Samuel Alito are seated as they and the other Supreme Court members sit for a group photo at the Supreme Court building on Capitol Hill on Friday, Oct. 7, 2022 in Washington, D.C. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

He also said “attempts to intimidate judges for their rulings in cases are inappropriate and should be vigorously opposed.” 

While public officials and others have the right to criticize rulings, they should also be aware that their statements can “prompt dangerous reactions by others,” Roberts wrote. 

Threats targeting federal judges have more than tripled over the last decade, according to U.S. Marshals Service statistics. State court judges in Wisconsin and Maryland were killed at their homes in 2022 and 2023, Roberts wrote.

“Violence, intimidation, and defiance directed at judges because of their work undermine our Republic, and are wholly unacceptable,” he wrote.

Roberts also pointed to disinformation about court rulings as a threat to judges’ independence, saying that social media can magnify distortions and even be exploited by “hostile foreign state actors” to exacerbate divisions.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.