The U.S. welcome mat is rolling up — at least that’s how some international travelers see it, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council, a global organization representing the travel and tourism industry. And the cost for that hospitality lapse will be high.

The United States is on track to lose $12.5 billion in international travel spending this year, falling to less than $169 billion from $181 billion in 2024, according to the latest Economic Impact Research, published by the W.T.T.C. on Tuesday.

That’s a 22.5 percent decline from the U.S. international spending peak of $217.4 billion in 2019 — and it comes after months of Trump administration policies that have deterred foreign travelers from visiting because they either feel unwelcome or unsafe.

Julia Simpson, the president and chief executive of the W.T.T.C., said that while last year U.S. travel spending remained below 2019 levels — mainly because the dollar’s strength made it expensive for international travelers — the downward projection for this year is driven by negative sentiment in the wake of tourist detentions and steep tariffs.

“The near neighbors, Canada and Mexico, are not traveling,” Ms. Simpson said, referring to a decline in travelers from those countries in reaction to immigration crackdowns, tariffs and politically charged statements on the part of the Trump administration. “There are also concerns over visas — whether they’ve got the right visa or might accidentally get arrested, which has made people quite fearful.”

The United States is the only country among the 184 economies analyzed by the W.T.T.C. and the global economic advisory firm Oxford Economics that is forecast to see an international visitor decline in 2025. As the United States tightens immigration and scrutinizes visitors at its borders, other countries, like China, are relaxing visa requirements, aiming to encourage international tourism.

“While other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the U.S. government is putting up the ‘closed’ sign,” Ms. Simpson said. “I’m quite sure President Trump, with his background in hospitality, understands that holiday makers just want to come and enjoy the beautiful country and the people and the history and then go home again,” she said. “They don’t want to live there.”

The United States still has the world’s largest tourism and travel market, which contributed $2.36 trillion to the nation’s economy last year. But 90 percent of tourism spending in 2024 came from domestic tourists.

The W.T.T.C. says not encouraging international tourism to the United States is a missed opportunity because that’s where the real growth lies. Foreign travelers spend an average of $4,000 per trip — eight times more than domestic travelers, according to the U.S. Travel Association. In 2024, the United States welcomed 72.4 million international visitors, 7 million fewer than in 2019. International arrivals have steadily declined this year, with significant drops in March from key markets like Canada, Britain and South Korea, according to U.S. Department of Commerce data.

While part of that decline can be attributed to the fact that Easter fell late this year, pushing back a popular travel window — particularly from Western Europe — many U.S. travel companies have revised their projections for the summer to reflect the downward trend.

“Without urgent action to restore international traveler confidence, it could take several years for the U.S. just to return to prepandemic levels of international visitor spend,” Ms. Simpson said.

Follow New York Times Travel on Instagram and sign up for our Travel Dispatch newsletter to get expert tips on traveling smarter and inspiration for your next vacation. Dreaming up a future getaway or just armchair traveling? Check out our 52 Places to Go in 2025.

U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra, R-Iowa, filed paperwork on Monday to run for Iowa governor in the 2026 election.

Feenstra, who was first elected to the U.S. House in 2020, filed the paperwork for “Feenstra for Governor” with the Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board, which is needed to launch a gubernatorial campaign, according to the Iowa Capital Dispatch.

The congressman is seeking to replace Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds, who said last month she would not run for a third term in 2026. Feenstra has been considering a gubernatorial run since Reynolds’ announcement.

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“I’ll tell you right now, I’m focused on fulfilling and making sure that we get Trump’s agenda completed,” Feenstra told reporters on April 23. “However, I always want to do what’s best for our state, and I will continue to look at all aspects of what that looks like.”

Feenstra has not publicly announced a campaign for governor.

The GOP primary in the Hawkeye State could potentially be crowded, although former state Rep. Brad Sherman is the only Republican to have officially joined the race after he launched his campaign in February.

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Rep. Randy Feenstra was first elected to the U.S. House in 2020. (Getty Images)

But others have taken steps toward a gubernatorial bid, including Iowa state Sen. Mike Bousselot, who launched an exploratory committee last month, as well as Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird and House Speaker Pat Grassley — the grandson of U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa — who each said they are considering a run for governor.

Iowa Auditor Rob Sand filed paperwork on Monday to run in the state’s Democratic primary.

Feenstra is the only U.S. House member from Iowa considering a run for governor. The other three — U.S. GOP Reps. Ashley Hinson, Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn — all said they will not launch a gubernatorial campaign.

Rep. Randy Feenstra is seeking to replace Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds, who said last month she would not run for a third term in 2026. (Getty Images)

Before he was elected to the U.S. House in 2020, when he defeated then-incumbent U.S. Rep. Steve King in the Republican primary, Feenstra served as a state senator since 2009. Before that, he was Sioux County treasurer from 2006 until 2008.

WASHINGTON — China and the United States retreated from an emerging economic crisis on Monday, agreeing to drastically reduce tariffs on each other for the next 90 days as they continue to negotiate a more permanent trade deal, providing welcome news for investors and retailers who increasingly feared a breakthrough was out of reach.

The temporary truce will see the United States lower tariffs on Chinese imports to 30% from 145%, and China reduce its import duties on U.S. goods to 10% from 125%, starting Wednesday. Wall Street rejoiced at the announcement of a deal, with the Dow Jones industrial average up 2.81%, the Standard & Poor’s 500 up 3.26%, and the Nasdaq up 4.35%, the largest market rally since President Trump last walked back rate hikes on other countries in mid-April.

Trump referred to the development as a “total reset with China.” But the end result of the provisional agreement is a return to tariff rates that were in place before the president launched a global trade war on April 2, in what he called “Liberation Day” — a move that brought the largest decline in commercial shipping traffic since the COVID-19 pandemic and prompted financial institutions to warn of an imminent recession.

Supply shortages and price increases on Chinese products may still hit American consumers in the coming weeks, a lingering effect of weeks of uncertainty, experts said. Many retailers have already increased their prices. And shipping costs are expected to skyrocket as manufacturers and wholesalers attempt to make up for lost time. The 90-day deadline for a more lasting trade deal could fuel further market volatility in the coming weeks.

Trump’s Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, who led the negotiations with Beijing, also secured a commitment from China to cut non-tariff barriers it had put in place after April 2, including certain import restrictions and blacklisting of U.S. companies.

“It de-escalates trade tensions and reduces the probability of a stagflation,” said Sung Won Sohn, a professor of finance and economics at Loyola Marymount University and a former commissioner at the Port of Los Angeles, referring to a phenomenon feared the world over by economists: a combination of slow economic growth, high inflation and increasing unemployment. “But this is a temporary truce. A tough road is ahead of us.”

Over the next three months, the Trump administration says it intends to develop a “mechanism” that will “rebalance” the U.S. trade relationship with China — a task that has eluded presidents for decades. Trump hopes to change Beijing’s policy of providing government subsidies to state-owned enterprises and to reduce a $400-billion U.S. trade deficit with China, both tall orders in such a short time frame.

“Supply chains have been disrupted and there are a lot fewer ships sailing the ocean,” Sohn added. “Supplies in stores won’t be as plentiful as it used to be. During the back-to-school season, for example, there will be shortages, stockouts and higher prices. If the negotiation progresses well, there will be more merchandise at retail stores for back-to-school and Christmas.”

After the deal concluded in Geneva, Bessent said he would draw inspiration in the upcoming talks from a preliminary agreement negotiated with Beijing at the end of the first Trump administration called Phase One, which included new rules governing the exchange of intellectual property, technology transfer and financial services. Bessent claimed that deal was not enforced by the Biden administration.

But the Treasury secretary acknowledged that the upcoming talks would be difficult. “Neither side wants a decoupling,” he said.

“I don’t think anything’s going to be easy, because this has been going on for a long time,” Bessent told CNBC.

Before departing for an official visit to the Middle East, Trump said he expected to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping and praised the agreement as a temporary step toward a permanent deal. The truce, Trump added, does not include tariffs on cars, steel and aluminum.

He also spoke with Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook shortly after announcing the deal, Trump said.

“The relationship is very good. We’re not looking to hurt China — China was being hurt very badly,” the president told reporters at the White House. “They were very happy to be able to do something with us.”

Trump said that pharmaceuticals may also be exempt from tariff reductions with China going forward, speaking at a signing ceremony for an executive order aimed at lowering drug prices.

The majority of the world’s pharmaceuticals are manufactured in China and India. But Trump reserved his harshest critique at the event for the European Union, which produces several high-profile drugs, including Ozempic and Wegovy, weight loss medications that Trump said are heavily overpriced in the United States.

“The European Union is in many ways nastier than China,” Trump said, adding: “We’ve just started with them.

“We have all the cards,” he said. “They treated us very unfairly.”