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Trump Sees the U.S. as a ‘Disaster.’ The Numbers Tell a Different Story.

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Trump Sees the U.S. as a ‘Disaster.’ The Numbers Tell a Different Story.

To hear President-elect Donald J. Trump tell it, he is about to take over a nation ravaged by crisis, a desolate hellscape of crime, chaos and economic hardship. “Our Country is a disaster, a laughing stock all over the World!” he declared on social media last week.

But by many traditional metrics, the America that Mr. Trump will inherit from President Biden when he takes the oath for a second time, two weeks from Monday, is actually in better shape than that bequeathed to any newly elected president since George W. Bush came into office in 2001.

For the first time since that transition 24 years ago, there will be no American troops at war overseas on Inauguration Day. New data reported in the past few days indicate that murders are way down, illegal immigration at the southern border has fallen even below where it was when Mr. Trump left office and roaring stock markets finished their best two years in a quarter-century.

Jobs are up, wages are rising and the economy is growing as fast as it did during Mr. Trump’s presidency. Unemployment is as low as it was just before the Covid-19 pandemic and near its historic best. Domestic energy production is higher than it has ever been.

The manufacturing sector has more jobs than under any president since Mr. Bush. Drug overdose deaths have fallen for the first time in years. Even inflation, the scourge of the Biden presidency, has returned closer to normal, although prices remain higher than they were four years ago.

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“President Trump is inheriting an economy that is about as good as it ever gets,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. “The U.S. economy is the envy of the rest of the world, as it is the only significant economy that is growing more quickly post-pandemic than prepandemic.”

Those positive trends were not enough to swing a sour electorate behind Vice President Kamala Harris in the November election, reflecting a substantial gap between what statistics say and what ordinary Americans appear to feel about the state of the country. And the United States clearly faces some major challenges that will confront Mr. Trump as he retakes power.

The terrorist attack by an American man who said he had joined ISIS that killed 14 people in New Orleans early on New Year’s Day served as a reminder that the Islamic State, which Mr. Trump likes to boast he defeated during his previous term, remains a threat and an inspiration to radicalized lone wolves. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza are daunting challenges even without U.S. troops engaged in combat there.

Thanks in part to Covid relief spending by both Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden, the national debt has ballooned so much that it now represents a larger share of the economy than it has in generations, other than during the pandemic itself. Families remain pressed by the cost of living, including housing, health care and college tuition. The cost of gasoline, while down from its peak, is still about 70 cents per gallon higher than when Mr. Biden took office.

Moreover, Americans remain as divided as they have been in many years — politically, ideologically, economically, racially and culturally. As healthy as the country may be economically and otherwise, a variety of scholars, surveys and other indicators suggest that America is struggling to come together behind a common view of its national identity, either at home or abroad.

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Indeed, many Americans do not perceive the country to be doing as well as the data suggests, either because they do not see it in their own lives, they do not trust the statistics or they accept the dystopian view promoted by Mr. Trump and amplified by a fragmented, choose-your-own-news media and online ecosphere.

Only 19 percent of Americans were satisfied with the direction of the country in Gallup polling last month. In another Gallup survey in September, 52 percent of Americans said they and their own family were worse off than four years ago, a higher proportion than felt that way in the presidential election years of 1984, 1992, 2004, 2012 or 2020.

It was in Mr. Trump’s political interest, of course, to encourage that sentiment and appeal to it during last year’s campaign. He was hardly the first challenger to emphasize the negative to defeat an incumbent president.

Dwight D. Eisenhower disparaged the state of the country when he first ran in 1952, much to the irritation of President Harry S. Truman, only to have John F. Kennedy do the same to him when running in 1960. Kennedy hammered away at a “missile gap” with the Soviet Union that did not exist, then after winning declared that America was in “its hour of maximum danger,” in contrast to Eisenhower’s view of his security record.

“This is a contrast you oftentimes find,” said Michael Beschloss, a historian who has written nine books on the American presidency. “Candidates who are running against incumbent presidents or sitting governments make it sound much worse than it is.”

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Still, few have been as extreme in their negative descriptions as Mr. Trump, or as resistant to fact-checking. He has suggested falsely that immigration, crime and inflation are out of control, attributed the New Orleans incident to lax border policies even though the attacker was an American born in Texas and as recently as Friday called the country “a total mess!”

Yet Mr. Trump is moving back into the White House with an enviable hand to play, one that other presidents would have dearly loved on their opening day. President Ronald Reagan inherited double-digit inflation and an unemployment rate twice as high as today. President Barack Obama inherited two foreign wars and an epic financial crisis. Mr. Biden inherited a devastating pandemic and the resulting economic turmoil.

“He’s stepping into an improving situation,” William J. Antholis, director of the University of Virginia’s Miller Center, which has studied presidential transitions, said of Mr. Trump.

Mr. Antholis compared the situation to President Bill Clinton’s arrival in 1993, when he took over a growing economy and a new post-Cold War order. While the country had already begun recovering from recession during the 1992 election, many voters did not yet feel it and punished President George H.W. Bush.

“The fundamentals of the economy had turned just before the election, and kept moving in the right direction when Clinton took over,” Mr. Antholis recalled.

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Much as it did for the first Mr. Bush’s team, the disconnect between macro trends and individual perceptions proved enormously frustrating to Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris, who failed to persuade voters during last year’s election that the country was doing better than commonly believed. Rattling off statistics and boasting about the success of “Bidenomics” did not resonate with voters who did not see it the same way.

“Of course, not everyone is enjoying good economic times, as many low-middle income households are struggling financially, and the nation has mounting fiscal challenges,” said Mr. Zandi. “But taking the economy in its totality, it rarely performs better than it is now as President Trump takes office.”

Andrew Bates, a White House spokesman, said the latest reports demonstrated that Mr. Biden’s policies are working and argued that Republicans should not seek to repeal them once they take control of the presidency and both houses of Congress.

“After inheriting an economy in free-fall and skyrocketing violent crime, President Biden is proud to hand his successor the best-performing economy on earth, the lowest violent crime rates in over 50 years, and the lowest border crossings in over four years,” Mr. Bates said.

Karoline Leavitt, a spokeswoman for Mr. Trump, responded by citing the election: “Americans delivered an overwhelming Election Day rebuke of the Biden-Harris administration’s abysmal track record: communities being overrun with millions of unvetted migrants who walked over Biden’s open border, lower real wages, and declining trust in increasingly politicized law enforcement agencies that are unable to even publish accurate crime data.”

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Mr. Trump does not have to share a positive view of the situation to benefit from it. When he takes office on Jan. 20, absent the unexpected, he will not face the sort of major immediate action-forcing crisis that, say, Mr. Obama did in needing to rescue the economy from the brink of another Great Depression.

Mr. Trump instead will have more latitude to pursue favored policies like mass deportation of undocumented immigrants or tariffs on foreign imported goods. And if past is prologue, he may eventually begin extolling the state of the economy to claim successes for his policies.

He has already taken credit for recent increases in stock prices even before assuming office. He has a demonstrated skill for self-promotion that eluded Mr. Biden, enabling him to persuade many Americans that the economy during his first term was even better than it actually was.

At the same time, with unemployment, crime, border crossings and even inflation already pretty low, it may be difficult for Mr. Trump to improve on them significantly. Mr. Trump obliquely seemed to acknowledge as much when he noted in a post-election interview with Time magazine that he may not be able to live up to his campaign pledge to lower grocery prices. “It’s hard to bring things down once they’re up,” he said. “You know, it’s very hard.”

On the contrary, Mr. Trump faces the risk that the economy goes in the other direction. Some specialists have warned that a tariff-driven trade war with major economic partners could, for instance, reignite inflation.

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N. Gregory Mankiw, an economics professor at Harvard and chairman of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers under the second Mr. Bush, recalled that even his former boss faced significant challenges when he took office in 2001 as the economy was already heading into a relatively mild recession following the bust of the dot-com boom.

“There are no similar storm clouds on the horizon right now,” Mr. Mankiw said. “That is certainly lucky for Mr. Trump. On the other hand, all presidents must deal with unexpected shocks to the economy. We just don’t know yet what kind of shocks President Trump will have to handle.”

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Pentagon Reaches Settlement With Veterans Dismissed Over Sexuality

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Pentagon Reaches Settlement With Veterans Dismissed Over Sexuality

The Defense Department has reached a sweeping settlement with tens of thousands of people who were dismissed from military service because of their sexual identity, potentially paving the way for veterans to upgrade their discharge status and receive a range of benefits they had been denied.

The settlement, which the Pentagon agreed to late last week and was filed on Monday in Federal District Court in Northern California, must still be approved by a judge. It applies to a group of more than 30,000 veterans who received less-than-honorable discharges or whose discharge status lists their sexuality. Advocacy groups had filed a class-action civil rights lawsuit in 2023 alleging that the Pentagon had failed to remedy “ongoing discrimination” after the repeal of the military’s “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy more than a decade earlier.

Those who leave the military with less-than-honorable discharges usually do not receive all of the benefits they would have been eligible for through the Veterans Affairs Department, including health care from the V.A.’s hospitals and clinics, educational benefits and access to job networks.

While the Defense Department has taken steps under the Biden administration to upgrade discharges and restore benefits for L.G.B.T.Q. veterans, the settlement is expected to make the process much easier. It would also help former service members remove references to their sexuality from their discharge paperwork. If a federal judge approves the settlement, it will be binding by law.

When reached for comment, the Pentagon referred to the Justice Department, which declined to comment. The settlement was reported earlier on Monday by CBS News.

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Sherrill Farrell, 63, a Navy veteran who is the lead plaintiff in the lawsuit, said in an interview that news of the settlement was “overwhelming.” Ms. Farrell, who is lesbian, enlisted in the Navy in 1985. She was outed by a bunkmate and kicked out of training after only 10 months as a fireman apprentice. Her dreams of following the footsteps of her father and grandfather by serving in the military were crushed, and she never applied for benefits.

“It wasn’t about the money,” Ms. Farrell said. “It was about human decency and treating people fairly, and the people that are willing to defend our country regardless of what their sexual orientation is or who they love.”

L.G.B.T.Q. service members who were open about their sexual orientation were barred from the military until 2011, when President Barack Obama repealed “don’t ask, don’t tell.” But the end of the policy did nothing to address the effects of it that tens of thousands of service members who were discharged because of their sexuality experienced.

Those whose discharges remain less than honorable are still denied full benefits. Their only option for upgrading their discharge is to petition individually, a process that can take over a year, according to the nonprofit legal services organization Legal Aid at Work, one of the groups that filed the lawsuit.

In other cases, even when a discharge is honorable, paperwork can out veterans because it refers to them or their actions as “homosexual.” It might say that they “attempted to engage in homosexual marriage,” Elizabeth Kristen, a lawyer with Legal Aid at Work, said in an interview.

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After the class-action lawsuit was initially filed in August 2023, the Defense Department began what it called a proactive review of service members who were discharged during the era of “don’t ask, don’t tell.” That review concluded in October, and more than 800 service members who were kicked out had their discharges upgraded to honorable. It was the first time that the department had systematically reviewed discharges related to sexual identity.

But the settlement that the Pentagon agreed to on Friday would go even further, creating a streamlined process that would apply to more people in a larger time frame.

“What it says,” Ms. Kristen said of the settlement, “is that the word ‘homosexual’ being taken off your records, that should be essentially as easy as getting your name changed.”

Many veterans had no idea that there was a pathway to getting their paperwork fixed. Some, like Ms. Farrell, had felt shame and did not ask for benefits that they would have been entitled to, if not for a less-than-honorable discharge.

Ms. Farrell was openly lesbian when she enlisted, and she said she felt guilty for answering “no” to the application question “Are you homosexual?” It is the only time she recalls lying about her sexual identity, she said, because she knew her application would not have been considered if she had told the truth.

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“I wanted to serve my country that bad,” Ms. Farrell said, choking up with emotion. “But because of my integrity and the way that I look at serving in the military, I kind of felt that they had a right to do what they did because I had lied.”

The settlement is one of several steps that the Biden administration has taken to remedy the effects of policies felt by L.G.B.T.Q. service members for decades. In June, President Biden offered clemency to some 2,000 veterans who were convicted of engaging in gay sex, which was outlawed by the military for more than 60 years, in order to address what he called a “historic wrong.”

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President Biden, first lady attend memorial service for Bourbon Street attack victims in New Orleans

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President Biden, first lady attend memorial service for Bourbon Street attack victims in New Orleans

President Biden and first lady Jill Biden attended a Monday memorial service for the victims of the Bourbon Street terrorist attack in New Orleans, paying their respects to the 14 victims who died.

The event, which was an interfaith prayer service, was hosted at the Cathedral-Basilica of Saint Louis, King of France, in the French Quarter. The church is located less than a mile away from the scene of the attack, where terrorist Shamsud-Din Jabbar drove a pickup truck into a crowd of celebrants on New Year’s Day.

Biden made short remarks toward the end of the service, expressing sympathy for the victims and their families.

“The shock and pain is still so very raw,” Biden, who leaves office in exactly two weeks, said. “My wife Jill and I are here to stand with you, grieve with you, pray with you, [and] let you know you are not alone — the rest of the nation is looking at you as well.”

WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT VICTIMS OF NEW ORLEANS TERRORIST ATTACK

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US President Joe Biden (R) and first lady Jill Biden (2nd R), alongside the Governor of Louisiana Jeff Landry (2nd L) and his wife Sharon Landry (L), attend an interfaith prayer service with the families and community members impacted by the Jan. 1 truck attack in New Orleans, at the Cathedral-Basilica of Saint Louis, King of France, in New Orleans, Louisiana, on Jan. 6, 2025. (ROBERTO SCHMIDT/AFP via Getty Images)

The president also noted that he recently met two officers who were injured during the attack, and commended the first responders who saved lives amid the chaos.

“New Orleans defines strength and resilience,” Biden said. “You define it. Whether it’s in the form of this attack, from this attack or hurricanes or superstorms, this city’s people get back up. That’s the spirit of America as well.”

The service came less than a week after the terrorist attack stunned the Big Easy. Jabbar died at the scene, bringing the total number of deaths to 15 as of Jan. 6, and over 30 injuries.

Many of the decedents were in their 20s and visited New Orleans from across the U.S., including Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, New York and New Jersey. The youngest victim who died was 18 years old, and the oldest was 63. 

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NEW ORLEANS TERRORIST, MAN IN LAS VEGAS CYBERTRUCK EXPLOSION SHARED MORE LINKS IN ATTACKS JUST HOURS APART

Bidens walking in church

US President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden, alongside Archbishop Gregory Aymond (R), attend an interfaith prayer service with the families and community members impacted by the Jan. 1 truck attack in New Orleans, at the Cathedral-Basilica of Saint Louis, King of France, in New Orleans, Louisiana, on Jan. 6, 2025. (ROBERTO SCHMIDT/AFP via Getty Images)

The incident is still under investigation, and federal and local officials are continuing to gather evidence about the terrorist attack. On Sunday, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) said its National Response Team had completed its investigation of Jabbar’s Airbnb in New Orleans.

Jabbar, who rented a house on Mandeville Street and left it hours before unleashing his attack, set a fire at the rental house to destroy evidence, but the fire eventually smoldered by the time authorities arrived. Accelerants that Jabbar strategically placed ended up not catching fire, allowing authorities to gather evidence.

Officials also found traces of the explosive RDX, or cyclotrimethylenetrinitramine, at the rental. The agency noted that Jabbar unknowingly foiled his plans by using an electric match to ignite explosive material that is typically set off by a detonator. 

 

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Bidens laying flowers

US President Joe Biden and First Lady Jill Biden lay flowers as they pay their respects to victims of the January 1 truck attack at a makeshift memorial in Bourbon Street in New Orleans, Louisiana, on Janauary 6, 2025. (ROBERTO SCHMIDT/AFP via Getty Images)

“Jabbar used explosive material better suited for a detonator, but he didn’t have access to one, so he used an electric match to set the explosives off,” the ATF’s statement explained. “Jabbar’s lack of experience and crude nature of putting the device together is the reason why he used the wrong device to set the explosives off.”

Fox News Digital’s Michael Dorgan contributed to this report.

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Despite revenue increase, Newsom plans to pull from California's rainy day reserves

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Despite revenue increase, Newsom plans to pull from California's rainy day reserves

Gov. Gavin Newsom touted higher than expected tax revenues and a “modest surplus” in an unconventional preview of his $322.2 billion spending proposal for the upcoming fiscal year, but his office said he still plans to pull money from the state’s rainy day reserves to pay for policy priorities.

The Democratic governor delivered a selective presentation of his initial 2025-26 budget at Cal State Stanislaus on Monday that largely praised the state’s economic position under his leadership and made it difficult to understand the full scope of his spending plan. Newsom said details would be forthcoming at the end of the week.

The early, yet incomplete look at his proposal shows that Newsom’s annual spending plan has grown by $24 billion compared to the current budget enacted in July. The governor announced a projection of an extra $16.5 billion in tax revenue above his administration’s prior estimates, which the Department of Finance said is spread over three years.

“The top lines include a balanced budget, no deficits,” Newsom said.

The proposal kicks off the annual six-month process in which the governor and lawmakers negotiate a final spending plan to be approved in late June. Newsom’s presentation at a college campus in the Central Valley town of Turlock was an unusual twist on the ritual, driven by Newsom’s decision to travel to Washington, D.C., later this week for the funeral of former President Carter.

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Because he presented the budget a few days earlier than initially planned, Monday’s rollout did not include the detailed budget document that typically accompanies the governor’s presentation.

Newsom described his proposal as making “significant commitments to accountability, transparency and results” and “maintaining fiscal discipline in a time of deep uncertainty.”

Despite the revenue increase, the cost of providing Medi-Cal coverage to seniors and more undocumented immigrants, offering pre-kindergarten to all 4-year-olds, creating a new $420-million tax break for Hollywood film studios and funding other signature Newsom policies leaves California with a spending problem.

Newsom’s office said he plans to withdraw another $7.1 billion from California’s rainy day reserves in the upcoming budget year, after declaring a fiscal emergency last year to take out $5.1 billion to balance the current budget and another $900 million from a safety-net reserve.

The decision to dip into the state’s savings account was part of an agreement made last year with lawmakers to also delay programs, cut spending and rely on the occasional accounting gimmick to solve a $46.8 billion deficit. California leaders were forced to reconcile a $31.7 billion deficit the prior year.

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Senate President Pro Tem Mike McGuire (D-Healdsburg) said those tough decisions put California in a better financial position today.

“We look forward to taking a close look at the governor’s full proposal later this week,” McGuire said in a statement. “The major work will happen in the months ahead, when we’ll get down to brass tacks and craft a responsible and balanced budget which will help make California more livable and affordable.”

Assemblymember Carl DeMaio, a Republican elected in November to represent inland San Diego County, called the governor’s proposal “negligent” before Newsom even delivered his presentation.

“Gavin Newsom is in over his head and hopes that no one notices — but no amount of Enron-style accounting will change the alarming reality that Gavin Newsom has created a fiscal crisis,” DeMaio said in a statement, calling on his fellow lawmakers to reject the governor’s proposal.

Analysts warn that the financial outlook will worsen in the future with the potential for even greater economic upheaval under the incoming Trump administration.

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The California Legislative Analyst’s Office in November predicted a largely balanced budget in 2025-26 with a shortage of $2 billion, while anticipating a deficit of about $20 billion in 2026-27 and an even higher shortfall by 2028-29 of about $30 billion.

The LAO reported that the California economy has been in a gradual slowdown over the last two years, with about 25% more unemployed workers overall and declining trends in consumer spending.

Newsom did not offer a deficit projection for future years and said he will share more when he presents his revised budget proposal in May.

Corrin Rankin, vice chair of the California Republican Party, criticized the governor for not doing enough to help regular Californians.

“Handing out tax breaks to Hollywood and spending on AI is great for the state’s billionaires,” Rankin said in response to Newsom’s presentation. “However, the rest of us feel like we’re drowning in growing costs and our lives haven’t been improved.”

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Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas (D-Hollister) agreed that the state needs to tackle cost-of-living issues.

“We also need to prepare for challenges ahead and must show restraint with spending,” Rivas said in a statement. “I am committed to working with the governor and my colleagues on a budget that protects essential services and makes life more affordable.”

The Newsom administration has said President-elect Trump’s plan for international tariffs, uncertainty around federal Medi-Cal funding and threats to withhold disaster funding increase the likelihood of even greater budget uncertainty in the years ahead.

“We really have to see what fire and fury comes from Trump in the next few weeks and really get a sense,” Newsom said.

The governor is expected to leave for the Carter funeral after he spends time with President Biden Tuesday in California to celebrate the new Chuckwalla National Monument near Joshua Tree and the Sáttítla National Monument near the Oregon border.

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Joe Stephenshaw, director of the California Department of Finance, will formally present the budget to the Legislature and answer questions on Friday.

Newsom plans to leave the state Saturday for a vacation with his family.

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